Search results for: uncertainty estimation

Authors: Agnes Achs

Abstract:

The basic aim of our study is to give a possible model for handling uncertain information. This model is worked out in the framework of DATALOG. The concept of multivalued knowledgebase will be defined as a quadruple of any background knowledge; a deduction mechanism; a connecting algorithm, and a function set of the program, which help us to determine the uncertainty levels of the results. At first the concept of fuzzy Datalog will be summarized, then its extensions for intuitionistic- and interval-valued fuzzy logic is given and the concept of bipolar fuzzy Datalog is introduced. Based on these extensions the concept of multivalued knowledge-base will be defined. This knowledge-base can be a possible background of a future agent-model.

Keywords: Fuzzy-, intuitionistic-, bipolar datalog, multivalued knowledge-base

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Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

We consider power system expansion planning under uncertainty. In our approach, integer programming and stochastic programming provide a basic framework. We develop a multistage stochastic programming model in which some of the variables are restricted to integer values. By utilizing the special property of the problem, called block separable recourse, the problem is transformed into a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. The electric power capacity expansion problem is reformulated as the problem with first stage integer variables and continuous second stage variables. The L-shaped algorithm to solve the problem is proposed.

Keywords: electric power capacity expansion problem, integerprogramming, L-shaped method, stochastic programming

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Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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Authors: Pankaj Dutta, Debjani Chakraborty

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of product substitution in the single-period 'newsboy-type' problem in a fuzzy environment. It is supposed that the single-period problem operates under uncertainty in customer demand, which is described by imprecise terms and modelled by fuzzy sets. To perform this analysis, we consider the fuzzy model for two-item with upward substitution. This upward substitutability is reasonable when the products can be stored according to certain attribute levels such as quality, brand or package size. We show that the explicit consideration of this substitution opportunity increase the average expected profit. Computational study is performed to observe the benefits of product's substitution.

Keywords: Fuzzy demand, Newsboy, Single-period problem, Substitution.

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Authors: Sanmohan Krüger, Volker Krüger

Abstract:

Imitation learning is considered to be an effective way of teaching humanoid robots and action recognition is the key step to imitation learning. In this paper an online algorithm to recognize parametric actions with object context is presented. Objects are key instruments in understanding an action when there is uncertainty. Ambiguities arising in similar actions can be resolved with objectn context. We classify actions according to the changes they make to the object space. Actions that produce the same state change in the object movement space are classified to belong to the same class. This allow us to define several classes of actions where members of each class are connected with a semantic interpretation.

Keywords: Parametric actions, Action primitives, Hand gesture recognition, Imitation learning

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Authors: Noemy Witt Ferreira, Flávio de São Paulo Filho

Abstract:

Innovation, technology and knowledge are the trilogy of impact to support the challenges arising from uncertainty. Evidence showed an opportunity to ask how to manage in this environment under constant innovation. In an attempt to get a response from the field of Management Sciences, based in the Contingency Theory, a research was conducted, with phenomenological and descriptive approaches, using the Case Study Method and the usual procedures for this task involving a focus group composed of managers and employees working in the pharmaceutical field. The problem situation was raised; the state of the art was interpreted and dissected the facts. In this tasks were involved four establishments. The result indicates that these focused ventures have been managed by its founder empirically and is experimenting agility described in this work. The expectation of this study is to improve concepts for stakeholders on creativity in business.

Keywords: Administration. Innovation. Knowledge, Management Technology

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes, Jaroslav Prochazka, Pavel Smolka, Juraj Masar, Martin Pesl

Abstract:

This paper focuses on creating a component model of information system under uncertainty. The paper identifies problem in current approach of component modeling and proposes fuzzy tool, which will work with vague customer requirements and propose components of the resulting component model. The proposed tool is verified on specific information system and results are shown in paper. After finding suitable sub-components of the resulting component model, the component model is visualised by tool.

Keywords: Component, component model, fuzzy, fuzzy rules, fuzzy sets, information system, modelling, tool.

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Authors: Ehsan Akhlaghi

Abstract:

Effective employee selection is a critical component of a successful organization. Many important criteria for personnel selection such as decision-making ability, adaptability, ambition, and self-organization are naturally vague and imprecise to evaluate. The rough sets theory (RST) as a new mathematical approach to vagueness and uncertainty is a very well suited tool to deal with qualitative data and various decision problems. This paper provides conceptual, descriptive, and simulation results, concentrating chiefly on human resources and personnel selection factors. The current research derives certain decision rules which are able to facilitate personnel selection and identifies several significant features based on an empirical study conducted in an IT company in Iran.

Keywords: Decision Making, Expert System, PersonnelSelection, Rough Set Theory

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Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

Abstract:

Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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Authors: Yanling Li, Linying Ji, Zita Oravecz, Timothy R. Brick, Michael D. Hunter, Sy-Miin Chow

Abstract:

Assessing several individuals intensively over time yields intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Even though ILD provide rich information, they also bring other data analytic challenges. One of these is the increased occurrence of missingness with increased study length, possibly under non-ignorable missingness scenarios. Multiple imputation (MI) handles missing data by creating several imputed data sets, and pooling the estimation results across imputed data sets to yield final estimates for inferential purposes. In this article, we introduce dynr.mi(), a function in the R package, Dynamic Modeling in R (dynr). The package dynr provides a suite of fast and accessible functions for estimating and visualizing the results from fitting linear and nonlinear dynamic systems models in discrete as well as continuous time. By integrating the estimation functions in dynr and the MI procedures available from the R package, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), the dynr.mi() routine is designed to handle possibly non-ignorable missingness in the dependent variables and/or covariates in a user-specified dynamic systems model via MI, with convergence diagnostic check. We utilized dynr.mi() to examine, in the context of a vector autoregressive model, the relationships among individuals’ ambulatory physiological measures, and self-report affect valence and arousal. The results from MI were compared to those from listwise deletion of entries with missingness in the covariates. When we determined the number of iterations based on the convergence diagnostics available from dynr.mi(), differences in the statistical significance of the covariate parameters were observed between the listwise deletion and MI approaches. These results underscore the importance of considering diagnostic information in the implementation of MI procedures.

Keywords: Dynamic modeling, missing data, multiple imputation, physiological measures.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: Limit cycles, Nonlinear dynamical system, Real time obstacle avoidance.

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Authors: Wang Wen-long, Li Hua, Pan Sha

Abstract:

Eight difference schemes and five limiters are applied to numerical computation of Riemann problem. The resolution of discontinuities of each scheme produced is compared. Numerical dissipation and its estimation are discussed. The result shows that the numerical dissipation of each scheme is vital to improve scheme-s accuracy and stability. MUSCL methodology is an effective approach to increase computational efficiency and resolution. Limiter should be selected appropriately by balancing compressive and diffusive performance.

Keywords: Scheme; Limiter, Numerical simulation, Riemannproblem.

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Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu

Abstract:

After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.

Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR.

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Authors: N. Sefiani, L. Chraibi, K. Reklaoui, Y. Sefiani

Abstract:

Currently, business environment is characterized by pressure caused by stiff competition, constant changes (e.g., product/ technological innovations, decreasing product lifecycles, and product proliferation), and a high level of market uncertainty band unpredictability. The agility of the Supply Chain Management (SCM) is clearly identified as a key factor for success and a strategic essential lever. This paper explores the impact of deploying competence management and Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model on firm performance. Our approach is based on a systemic view by considering the SCOR reference model as the heart of competence management system.

Keywords: Competence, competence management, performance, SCOR model and agility.

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Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Mary L. G. S. Senna

Abstract:

The development of tourism is on the use of landscapes, natural or constructed, which involves a number of factors that contribute to the deterioration of nature. Tourist activity coupled with sustainable development has led to the emergence of many questions about these terms, since they are not well defined in this sense through literature searches. The present study was to analyze the main concepts and discussions involving sustainable tourism, providing reflections that can cause answers about one of the main questions in today's activity sector on whether its sustainability is a myth or reality. The methodology of this study is discussions, theoretical studies and bibliographic research. The results showed that the scholars who address the issue, often leave uncertainty about some discussions that demonstrate that there are still many studies to be conducted in order to prove that the claims so as to form the basis of what will be Tourism sustainable.

Keywords: Tourism, sustainability, development, discussions.

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Authors: Lili Wang

Abstract:

By using the estimation of the Cauchy matrix of linear impulsive differential equations and Banach fixed point theorem as well as Gronwall-Bellman’s inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for an impulsive neural networks with distributed delays. An example is presented to illustrate the feasibility and  effectiveness of the results.

Keywords: Almost periodic solution, Exponential stability, Neural networks, Impulses.

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

Abstract:

The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: Hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization.

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Authors: Byung Ki Kim, Ho Min Jung, Jae-Bong Yoo, Wan Yeon Lee, Chan Young Park, Young Woong Ko

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel approach to location system under indoor environment. The key idea of our work is accurate distance estimation with cricket-based location system using A* algorithm. We also use magnetic sensor for detecting obstacles in indoor environment. Finally, we suggest how this system can be used in various applications such as asset tracking and monitoring.

Keywords: Cricket, Indoor Location Tracking, Mobile Robot, Localization.

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Authors: Anna Girchenko, Victor A. Eremeyev, Holm Altenbach

Abstract:

In the present work we investigate both the elastic and electric properties of a chiral material. We consider a composite structure made from a polymer matrix and anisotropic inclusions of GaAs taking into account piezoelectric and dielectric properties of the composite material. The principal task of the work is the estimation of the functional properties of the composite material.

Keywords: Coupled electromechanical behavior, Composite structure, Chiral metamaterial.

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Authors: Constantin Pehoiu, Cristian Savu, Silviu Badea, Cristian Borida

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The physiological effects of physical exercise on human body are relatively well known in literature, which describes in detail the changes that occur in the cardiovascular system, the respiratory one, in bones and other systems, both during exercise and after its delivery. However, the effects of exercise on mental processes are less treated. From the literature reviews discussed in this study, it can be detached the idea that we can not exactly say that physical exercise has beneficial effects on mental processes, but neither that it would have potentially negative effects. This uncertainty, reflected in the inability to indicate precise and unequivocal meaning, favorable-unfavorable physical effort in acting on mental processes, is a prime reason to undertake a study of the phenomenon influence effort administered physical education classes on the dynamics of mental processes like attention and memory.

Keywords: management, exercise, mental process, lesson.

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Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: Elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, Fokker-Planck equation, Fourier Spectral method, Finite Difference method.

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

Abstract:

The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: Flood prediction process, High performance computing, Online flood prediction system, Parallelization.

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Authors: Jiashang Jiang, Hao Liu, Yongxin Yuan

Abstract:

In this paper the gradient based iterative algorithms are presented to solve the following four types linear matrix equations: (a) AXB = F; (b) AXB = F, CXD = G; (c) AXB = F s. t. X = XT ; (d) AXB+CYD = F, where X and Y are unknown matrices, A,B,C,D, F,G are the given constant matrices. It is proved that if the equation considered has a solution, then the unique minimum norm solution can be obtained by choosing a special kind of initial matrices. The numerical results show that the proposed method is reliable and attractive.

Keywords: Matrix equation, iterative algorithm, parameter estimation, minimum norm solution.

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Authors: Yvonne T. Haigh

Abstract:

Public sector corruption has long-term and damaging effects that are deep and broad. Addressing corruption relies on understanding the drivers that precipitate acts of corruption and developing educational programs that target areas of vulnerability. This paper provides an innovative approach to explore the nature of corruption by drawing on the perceptions and ideas of a group of public servants who have been part of a corruption investigation. The paper examines these reflections through the ideas of Pierre Bourdieu and Alfred Schutz to point to some of the steps that can lead to corrupt activity. The paper demonstrates that phenomenological inquiry is useful in the exploration of corruption and, as a theoretical framework, it highlights that corruption emerges through a combination of conflict, doubt and uncertainty. The paper calls for anti-corruption education programs to be attentive to way in which these conditions can influence the steps into corruption.

Keywords: Phenomenology, choice, conflict, corruption.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is proposed to select stealth fighter aircraft. Neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis methods are used to analyze the neutrosophic environment and give results under uncertainty and incompleteness. Neutrosophic numbers are used to evaluate alternatives over a set of evaluation criteria in decision making problems. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for selecting stealth fighter aircraft.

Keywords: neutrosophic sets, multiple criteria decision making analysis, stealth fighter aircraft, aircraft selection, MCDMA, SVNNs

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Authors: Qiaozhen Song

Abstract:

Based on the feature of model disturbances and uncertainty being compensated dynamically in auto – disturbances-rejection-controller (ADRC), a new method using ADRC is proposed for the decoupling control of dispenser longitudinal movement in big flight envelope. Developed from nonlinear model directly, ADRC is especially suitable for dynamic model that has big disturbances. Furthermore, without changing the structure and parameters of the controller in big flight envelope, this scheme can simplify the design of flight control system. The simulation results in big flight envelope show that the system achieves high dynamic performance, steady state performance and the controller has strong robustness.

Keywords: ADRC, ESO, nonlinear system

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Authors: Kong-Seng, Lai, Nor'Aini Yusof

Abstract:

Organizational culture fosters innovation, and innovation is the main engine to be sustained within the uncertainty market. Like other countries, the construction industry significantly contributes to the economy, society and technology of Malaysia, yet, innovation is still considered slow compared to other industries such as manufacturing. Given the important role of an architect as the key player and the contributor of new ideas in the construction industry, there is a call to identify the issue and improve the current situation by focusing on the architectural firms. In addition, the existing studies tend to focus only on a few dimensions of organizational culture and very few studies consider whether innovation is being generated or adopted. Hence, the present research tends to fill in the gap by identifying the organizational cultures that foster or hinder innovation generation and/or innovation adoption, and propose a model of organizational culture and innovation generation and/or adoption.

Keywords: Innovation adoption, innovation generation, architectural firm, organizational culture

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Authors: Jae Wook Shin, Ju-man Song, Hyun-Taek Choi, Poo Gyeon Park

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new variable step-size APA with decorrelation of AR input process is based on the MSD analysis. To achieve a fast convergence rate and a small steady-state estimation error, he proposed algorithm uses variable step size that is determined by minimising the MSD. In addition, experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is achieved better performance than the other algorithms.

Keywords: adaptive filter, affine projection algorithm, variable step size.

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Authors: Claude Alavoine

Abstract:

While in practice negotiation is always a mix of cooperation and competition, these two elements correspond to different approaches of the relationship and also different orientations in term of strategy, techniques, tactics and arguments employed by the negotiators with related effects and in the end leading to different outcomes. The levels of honesty, trust and therefore cooperation are influenced not only by the uncertainty of the situation, the objectives, stakes or power but also by the orientation given from the very beginning of the relationship. When negotiation is reduced to a confrontation of power, participants rely on coercive measures, using different kinds of threats or make false promises and bluff in order to establish a more acceptable balance of power. Most of the negotiators have a tendency to complain about the unethical aspects of the tactics used by their counterparts while, as the same time, they are mostly unaware of the sources of influence of their own vision and practices. In this article, our intention is to clarify these sources and try to understand what can lead negotiators to unethical practices.

Keywords: competition, cooperation, ethics, negotiation, power

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Authors: Hongji Tang, Yanbo Gao, Yue Yu

Abstract:

This paper presents a new nonlinear integral-type sliding surface for synchronizing two different chaotic systems with parametric uncertainty. On the basis of Lyapunov theorem and average dwelling time method, we obtain the control gains of controllers which are derived to achieve chaos synchronization. In order to reduce the gains, the error system is modeled as a switching system. We obtain the sufficient condition drawn for the robust stability of the error dynamics by stability analysis. Then we apply it to guide the design of the controllers. Finally, numerical examples are used to show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Keywords: Chaos synchronization, Nonlinear sliding surface, Control gains, Sliding mode control.

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