Search results for: time series forecasting

Authors: Xinhui Wang, Xiuyong Ding

Abstract:

This paper addresses the controller synthesis problem of discrete-time switched positive systems with bounded time-varying delays. Based on the switched copositive Lyapunov function approach, some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of state-feedback controller are presented as a set of linear programming and linear matrix inequality problems, hence easy to be verified. Another advantage is that the state-feedback law is independent on time-varying delays and initial conditions. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed controller.

Keywords: Switched copositive Lyapunov functions, positive linear systems, switched systems, time-varying delays, stabilization.

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Authors: Mengzhuo Luo, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper investigates the problem of exponential stability for a class of uncertain discrete-time stochastic neural network with time-varying delays. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, combining the stochastic stability theory, the free-weighting matrix method, a delay-dependent exponential stability criteria is obtained in term of LMIs. Compared with some previous results, the new conditions obtain in this paper are less conservative. Finally, two numerical examples are exploited to show the usefulness of the results derived.

Keywords: Delay-dependent stability, Neural networks, Time varying delay, Linear matrix inequality (LMI).

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Authors: Yingguo Li

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a discrete Gompertz model with time delay. Firstly, the stability of the equilibrium of the system is investigated by analyzing the characteristic equation. By choosing the time delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that Neimark- Sacker bifurcations occur when the delay passes a sequence of critical values. The direction and stability of the Neimark-Sacker are determined by using normal forms and centre manifold theory. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to verify the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Gompertz system, Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, stability, time delay.

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Authors: Jin A Ryu, Ga Ye Kim, Hee Sun Kim

Abstract:

As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: Evacuation safety, Evacuation simulation, FDS+Evac, Time.

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Chen-Zon Yan, C. K. Huang, Chun-Chien Ting

Abstract:

Since the vision system application in industrial environment for autonomous purposes is required intensely, the image recognition technique becomes an important research topic. Here, deep learning algorithm is employed in image system to recognize the industrial object and integrate with a 7A6 Series Manipulator for object automatic gripping task. PC and Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) are chosen to construct the 3D Vision Recognition System. Depth Camera (Intel RealSense SR300) is employed to extract the image for object recognition and coordinate derivation. The YOLOv2 scheme is adopted in Convolution neural network (CNN) structure for object classification and center point prediction. Additionally, image processing strategy is used to find the object contour for calculating the object orientation angle. Then, the specified object location and orientation information are sent to robotic controller. Finally, a six-axis manipulator can grasp the specific object in a random environment based on the user command and the extracted image information. The experimental results show that YOLOv2 has been successfully employed to detect the object location and category with confidence near 0.9 and 3D position error less than 0.4 mm. It is useful for future intelligent robotic application in industrial 4.0 environment.

Keywords: Deep learning, image processing, convolution neural network, YOLOv2, 7A6 series manipulator.

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Authors: Sahar Sohrabi

Abstract:

The emergence of Cloud data centers has revolutionized the IT industry. Private Clouds in specific provide Cloud services for certain group of customers/businesses. In a real-time private Cloud each task that is given to the system has a deadline that desirably should not be violated. Scheduling tasks in a real-time private CLoud determine the way available resources in the system are shared among incoming tasks. The aim of the scheduling policy is to optimize the system outcome which for a real-time private Cloud can include: energy consumption, deadline violation, execution time and the number of host switches. Different scheduling policies can be used for scheduling. Each lead to a sub-optimal outcome in a certain settings of the system. A Bayesian Scheduling strategy is proposed for scheduling to further improve the system outcome. The Bayesian strategy showed to outperform all selected policies. It also has the flexibility in dealing with complex pattern of incoming task and has the ability to adapt.

Keywords: Bayesian, cloud computing, real-time private cloud, scheduling.

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Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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Authors: Stephanie Russo Fabris, Edmara Thays Neres Menezes, Ruirogeres dos Santos Cruz, Lucio Leonardo Siqueira Santos, Suzana Leitao Russo

Abstract:

The statistical process control (SPC) is one of the most powerful tools developed to assist ineffective control of quality, involves collecting, organizing and interpreting data during production. This article aims to show how the use of CEP industries can control and continuously improve product quality through monitoring of production that can detect deviations of parameters representing the process by reducing the amount of off-specification products and thus the costs of production. This study aimed to conduct a technological forecasting in order to characterize the research being done related to the CEP. The survey was conducted in the databases Spacenet, WIPO and the National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI). Among the largest are the United States depositors and deposits via PCT, the classification section that was presented in greater abundance to F.

Keywords: Statistical Process Control, Industries

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Authors: M. Zahid Hossain, M. Ashraful Amin

Abstract:

The algorithms of convex hull have been extensively studied in literature, principally because of their wide range of applications in different areas. This article presents an efficient algorithm to construct approximate convex hull from a set of n points in the plane in O(n + k) time, where k is the approximation error control parameter. The proposed algorithm is suitable for applications preferred to reduce the computation time in exchange of accuracy level such as animation and interaction in computer graphics where rapid and real-time graphics rendering is indispensable.

Keywords: Convex hull, Approximation algorithm, Computational geometry, Linear time.

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Authors: M.J. Sharifi

Abstract:

Several models have been introduced so far for single electron box, SEB, which all of them were restricted to DC response and or low temperature limit. In this paper we introduce a new time dependent, high temperature analytical model for SEB for the first time. DC behavior of the introduced model will be verified against SIMON software and its time behavior will be verified against a newly published paper regarding step response of SEB.

Keywords: Single electron box, SPICE, SIMON, Timedependent, Circuit model.

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Authors: K. P. Oyeduntan, K. Oshinubi

Abstract:

Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the sparkplug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria.

Keywords: Economy, GDP, maritime transport, port, regression.

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

Abstract:

Several meteorological parameters were used for the  prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on  horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological  data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine  duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design  and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based  prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system  based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the  proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results  were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing  empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the  advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series  solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Networks, Global Solar Radiation, Multi-layer perceptron, gradient, Root Mean Square Error.

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Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Minimization methods for training feed-forward networks with Backpropagation are compared. Feedforward network training is a special case of functional minimization, where no explicit model of the data is assumed. Therefore due to the high dimensionality of the data, linearization of the training problem through use of orthogonal basis functions is not desirable. The focus is functional minimization on any basis. A number of methods based on local gradient and Hessian matrices are discussed. Modifications of many methods of first and second order training methods are considered. Using share rates data, experimentally it is proved that Conjugate gradient and Quasi Newton?s methods outperformed the Gradient Descent methods. In case of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is of special interest in financial forecasting.

Keywords: Backpropagation algorithm, conjugacy condition, line search, matrix perturbation

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Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

Abstract:

Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information about Earthquake Existed throughout history & the Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of the object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, Prediction, RBF neural network.

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Authors: Delfim Soares Jr.

Abstract:

In this work, a new family of time marching procedures based on Green’s function matrices is presented. The formulation is based on the development of new recurrence relationships, which employ time integral terms to treat initial condition values. These integral terms are numerically evaluated taking into account Newton-Cotes formulas. The Green’s matrices of the model are also numerically computed, taking into account the generalized-α method and subcycling techniques. As it is discussed and illustrated along the text, the proposed procedure is efficient and accurate, providing a very attractive time marching technique. 

Keywords: Dynamics, Time-Marching, Green’s Function, Generalized-α Method, Subcycling.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Hailong Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, the three species food chain model on time scales is established. The Monod–Haldane functional response and time delay are considered. With the help of coincidence degree theory, existence of periodic solutions is investigated, which unifies the continuous and discrete analogies.

Keywords: Food chain system, periodic solution, time scales, coincidence degree.

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Authors: Liyakathunisa, V. K. Ananthashayana

Abstract:

Crucial information barely visible to the human eye is often embedded in a series of low resolution images taken of the same scene. Super resolution reconstruction is the process of combining several low resolution images into a single higher resolution image. The ideal algorithm should be fast, and should add sharpness and details, both at edges and in regions without adding artifacts. In this paper we propose a super resolution blind reconstruction technique for linearly degraded images. In our proposed technique the algorithm is divided into three parts an image registration, wavelets based fusion and an image restoration. In this paper three low resolution images are considered which may sub pixels shifted, rotated, blurred or noisy, the sub pixel shifted images are registered using affine transformation model; A wavelet based fusion is performed and the noise is removed using soft thresolding. Our proposed technique reduces blocking artifacts and also smoothens the edges and it is also able to restore high frequency details in an image. Our technique is efficient and computationally fast having clear perspective of real time implementation.

Keywords: Affine Transforms, Denoiseing, DWT, Fusion, Image registration.

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Authors: Naveed Ahmed, Gunar Matthies

Abstract:

We deal with the numerical solution of time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction equations. We combine the local projection stabilization method for the space discretization with two different time discretization schemes: the continuous Galerkin-Petrov (cGP) method and the discontinuous Galerkin (dG) method of polynomial of degree k. We establish the optimal error estimates and present numerical results which shows that the cGP(k) and dG(k)- methods are accurate of order k +1, respectively, in the whole time interval. Moreover, the cGP(k)-method is superconvergent of order 2k and dG(k)-method is of order 2k +1 at the discrete time points. Furthermore, the dependence of the results on the choice of the stabilization parameter are discussed and compared.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion-reaction equations, stabilized finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin, continuous Galerkin-Petrov.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Shu Lü, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

Abstract:

In this paper, the robust exponential stability problem of uncertain discrete-time recurrent neural networks with timevarying delay is investigated. By constructing a new augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii function, some new improved stability criteria are obtained in forms of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Compared with some recent results in literature, the conservatism of the new criteria is reduced notably. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the less conservatism and effectiveness of the proposed results.

Keywords: Robust exponential stability, delay-dependent stability, discrete-time neutral networks, time-varying delays.

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Authors: A. Rawangpai, B. Maraungsri, N. Chomnawang

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results on artificial ageing test of 22 kV XLPE cable for distribution system application in Thailand. XLPE insulating material of 22 kV cable was sliced to 60-70 μm in thick and was subjected to ac high voltage at 23 Ôùª C, 60 Ôùª C and 75 Ôùª C. Testing voltage was constantly applied to the specimen until breakdown. Breakdown voltage and time to breakdown were used to evaluate life time of insulating material. Furthermore, the physical model by J. P. Crine for predicts life time of XLPE insulating material was adopted as life time model and was calculated in order to compare the experimental results. Acceptable life time results were obtained from Crine-s model comparing with the experimental result. In addition, fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) for chemical analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) for physical analysis were conducted on tested specimens.

Keywords: Artificial accelerated ageing test, XLPE cable, distribution system, insulating material, life time, life time model

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Authors: Hun Go, Ji-Su Kim, Dong-Ho Lee

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of determining operation and maintenance schedules for a containership equipped with components during its sailing according to a pre-determined navigation schedule. The operation schedule, which specifies work time of each component, determines the due-date of each maintenance activity, and the maintenance schedule specifies the actual start time of each maintenance activity. The main constraints are component requirements, workforce availability, working time limitation, and inter-maintenance time. To represent the problem mathematically, a mixed integer programming model is developed. Then, due to the problem complexity, we suggest a heuristic for the objective of minimizing the sum of earliness and tardiness between the due-date and the starting time of each maintenance activity. Computational experiments were done on various test instances and the results are reported.

Keywords: Containerships, operation and preventive maintenance schedules, integer programming, heuristic

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Authors: Yong-Gyu Lee, Gilwon Yoon

Abstract:

Image processing for capsule endoscopy requires large memory and it takes hours for diagnosis since operation time is normally more than 8 hours. A real-time analysis algorithm of capsule images can be clinically very useful. It can differentiate abnormal tissue from health structure and provide with correlation information among the images. Bleeding is our interest in this regard and we propose a method of detecting frames with potential bleeding in real-time. Our detection algorithm is based on statistical analysis and the shapes of bleeding spots. We tested our algorithm with 30 cases of capsule endoscopy in the digestive track. Results were excellent where a sensitivity of 99% and a specificity of 97% were achieved in detecting the image frames with bleeding spots.

Keywords: bleeding, capsule endoscopy, image processing, real time analysis

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Authors: Saeed Mian Qaisar, Laurent Fesquet, Marc Renaudin

Abstract:

The frequency contents of the non-stationary signals vary with time. For proper characterization of such signals, a smart time-frequency representation is necessary. Classically, the STFT (short-time Fourier transform) is employed for this purpose. Its limitation is the fixed timefrequency resolution. To overcome this drawback an enhanced STFT version is devised. It is based on the signal driven sampling scheme, which is named as the cross-level sampling. It can adapt the sampling frequency and the window function (length plus shape) by following the input signal local variations. This adaptation results into the proposed technique appealing features, which are the adaptive time-frequency resolution and the computational efficiency.

Keywords: Level Crossing Sampling, Activity Selection, Adaptive Resolution Analysis, Computational Complexity.

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Authors: Haoyu Ma, Bin Hu, Mike Jackson, Jingzhi Yan, Wen Zhao

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a new classification method for automatic sleep scoring using an artificial neural network based decision tree. It attempts to treat sleep scoring progress as a series of two-class problems and solves them with a decision tree made up of a group of neural network classifiers, each of which uses a special feature set and is aimed at only one specific sleep stage in order to maximize the classification effect. A single electroencephalogram (EEG) signal is used for our analysis rather than depending on multiple biological signals, which makes greatly simplifies the data acquisition process. Experimental results demonstrate that the average epoch by epoch agreement between the visual and the proposed method in separating 30s wakefulness+S1, REM, S2 and SWS epochs was 88.83%. This study shows that the proposed method performed well in all the four stages, and can effectively limit error propagation at the same time. It could, therefore, be an efficient method for automatic sleep scoring. Additionally, since it requires only a small volume of data it could be suited to pervasive applications.

Keywords: Sleep, Sleep stage, Automatic sleep scoring, Electroencephalography, Decision tree, Artificial neural network

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Authors: Seung Woo Lee, So Jeong Nam, Jai-Kyung Lee

Abstract:

It can be said that the business sector is faced with a range of challenges–a rapidly changing business environment, an increase and diversification of customers- demands and the consequent need for quick response–for having in place flexible management and production info systems. As a matter of fact, many manufacturers have adopted production info management systems such as MES and ERP. Nevertheless, managers are having difficulties obtaining ever-changing production process information in real time, or responding quickly to any change in production related needs on the basis of such information. This is because they rely on poor production info systems which are not capable of providing real-time factory settings. If the manufacturer doesn-t have a capacity for collecting or digitalizing the 4 Ms (Man, Machine, Material, Method), which are resources for production, on a real time basis, it might to difficult to effectively maintain the information on production process. In this regard, this paper will introduce some new alternatives to the existing methods of collecting the 4 Ms in real time, which are currently comprise the production field.

Keywords: 4M, Acquisition of Data on shop-floor, Real-time machine interface

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Authors: J. Moshtagh, L. Eslami

Abstract:

Various studies have showed that about 90% of single line to ground faults occurred on High voltage transmission lines have transient nature. This type of faults is cleared by temporary outage (by the single phase auto-reclosure). The interval between opening and reclosing of the faulted phase circuit breakers is named “Dead Time” that is varying about several hundred milliseconds. For adjustment of traditional single phase auto-reclosures that usually are not intelligent, it is necessary to calculate the dead time in the off-line condition precisely. If the dead time used in adjustment of single phase auto-reclosure is less than the real dead time, the reclosing of circuit breakers threats the power systems seriously. So in this paper a novel approach for precise calculation of dead time in power transmission lines based on the network equivalencing in time domain is presented. This approach has extremely higher precision in comparison with the traditional method based on Thevenin equivalent circuit. For comparison between the proposed approach in this paper and the traditional method, a comprehensive simulation by EMTP-ATP is performed on an extensive power network.

Keywords: Dead Time, Network Equivalencing, High Voltage Transmission Lines, Single Phase Auto-Reclosure.

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Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano

Abstract:

A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art on works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.

Keywords: Disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time.

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Authors: Anthony Spiteri Staines

Abstract:

This paper examines and compares several of the most common real time methods. These methods are CORE, YSM, MASCOT, JSD, DARTS, RTSAD, ADARTS, CODARTS, HOOD, HRT-HOOD, ROOM, UML, UML-RT. The methods are compared using attributes like i) usability, ii) compositionality and iii) proper RT notations available. Finally some comparison results are given and discussed.

Keywords: Software Engineering Methods, MethodComparison, Real Time Analysis and Design.

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Authors: Y. Huang, Q. J. Tian, L. T. Du, J. Liu, S. S. Li

Abstract:

Understanding how precipitation inter-annually changes and its implication in agricultural drought and production change in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth season is critical for crop production in China. MODIS Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) and daily mean precipitation time series for the main growth season(Feb. to May) of winter wheat from 2000 to 2010 were used to analyze the distribution of trends of precipitation, agricultural drought and winter wheat yield change respectively, and relationships between them in North China region(Huang-huai-hai region, HHH region), China. The results indicated that the trend of precipitation in HHH region past 11 years was increasing, which had induced generally corresponding decreasing trend of agricultural drought and increasing trend of wheat yield, while the trend of drought was spatially diverse. The study could provide a basis for agricultural drought research during winter wheat season in HHH region under the ground of climate change.

Keywords: drought, MODIS, precipitation change, TVDI, winter wheat production

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