Search results for: rate based model.

Authors: Justinian Anatory, Nelson Theethayi, M. M. Kissaka, N. H. Mvungi

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Power line channel is proposed as an alternative for broadband data transmission especially in developing countries like Tanzania [1]. However the channel is affected by stochastic attenuation and deep notches which can lead to the limitation of channel capacity and achievable data rate. Various studies have characterized the channel without giving exactly the maximum performance and limitation in data transfer rate may be this is due to complexity of channel modeling being used. In this paper the channel performance of medium voltage, low voltage and indoor power line channel is presented. In the investigations orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) with phase shift keying (PSK) as carrier modulation schemes is considered, for indoor, medium and low voltage channels with typical ten branches and also Golay coding is applied for medium voltage channel. From channels, frequency response deep notches are observed in various frequencies which can lead to reduce the achievable data rate. However, is observed that data rate up to 240Mbps is realized for a signal to noise ratio of about 50dB for indoor and low voltage channels, however for medium voltage a typical link with ten branches is affected by strong multipath and coding is required for feasible broadband data transfer.

Keywords: Powerline Communications, branched network, channel model, modulation, channel performance, OFDM.

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Authors: Alaa E. Abdallah, Bajes Y. Alskarnah

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Ant colony based routing algorithms are known to grantee the packet delivery, but they suffer from the huge overhead of control messages which are needed to discover the route. In this paper we utilize the network nodes positions to group the nodes in connected clusters. We use clusters-heads only on forwarding the route discovery control messages. Our simulations proved that the new algorithm has decreased the overhead dramatically without affecting the delivery rate.

Keywords: Ant colony-based routing, position-based routing, MANET.

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Authors: Abdallah S. Abdallah, A. Lynn Abbott, Mohamad Abou El-Nasr

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This paper presents a new technique for detection of human faces within color images. The approach relies on image segmentation based on skin color, features extracted from the two-dimensional discrete cosine transform (DCT), and self-organizing maps (SOM). After candidate skin regions are extracted, feature vectors are constructed using DCT coefficients computed from those regions. A supervised SOM training session is used to cluster feature vectors into groups, and to assign “face" or “non-face" labels to those clusters. Evaluation was performed using a new image database of 286 images, containing 1027 faces. After training, our detection technique achieved a detection rate of 77.94% during subsequent tests, with a false positive rate of 5.14%. To our knowledge, the proposed technique is the first to combine DCT-based feature extraction with a SOM for detecting human faces within color images. It is also one of a few attempts to combine a feature-invariant approach, such as color-based skin segmentation, together with appearance-based face detection. The main advantage of the new technique is its low computational requirements, in terms of both processing speed and memory utilization.

Keywords: Face detection, skin color segmentation, self-organizingmap.

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Authors: Nikolay P. Brayanov, Anna V. Stoynova

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Model-based development approach is gaining more support and acceptance. Its higher abstraction level brings simplification of systems’ description that allows domain experts to do their best without particular knowledge in programming. The different levels of simulation support the rapid prototyping, verifying and validating the product even before it exists physically. Nowadays model-based approach is beneficial for modelling of complex embedded systems as well as a generation of code for many different hardware platforms. Moreover, it is possible to be applied in safety-relevant industries like automotive, which brings extra automation of the expensive device certification process and especially in the software qualification. Using it, some companies report about cost savings and quality improvements, but there are others claiming no major changes or even about cost increases. This publication demonstrates the level of maturity and autonomy of model-based approach for code generation. It is based on a real live automotive seat heater (ASH) module, developed using The Mathworks, Inc. tools. The model, created with Simulink, Stateflow and Matlab is used for automatic generation of C code with Embedded Coder. To prove the maturity of the process, Code generation advisor is used for automatic configuration. All additional configuration parameters are set to auto, when applicable, leaving the generation process to function autonomously. As a result of the investigation, the publication compares the quality of generated embedded code and a manually developed one. The measurements show that generally, the code generated by automatic approach is not worse than the manual one. A deeper analysis of the technical parameters enumerates the disadvantages, part of them identified as topics for our future work.

Keywords: Embedded code generation, embedded C code quality, embedded systems, model-based development.

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Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

Abstract:

The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: Crack, critical flow, leak, roughness.

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Authors: Xing Li, Chengqing Zong

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective framework for Chinesesyntactic parsing, which includes two parts. The first one is a parsing framework, which is based on an improved bottom-up chart parsingalgorithm, and integrates the idea of the beam search strategy of N bestalgorithm and heuristic function of A* algorithm for pruning, then get multiple parsing trees. The second is a novel evaluation model, which integrates contextual and partial lexical information into traditional PCFG model and defines a new score function. Using this model, the tree with the highest score is found out as the best parsing tree. Finally,the contrasting experiment results are given. Keywords?syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

Keywords: syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

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Authors: Jito Vanualailai, Bibhya Sharma

Abstract:

Swarm principles are increasingly being used to design controllers for the coordination of multi-robot systems or, in general, multi-agent systems. This paper proposes a two-dimensional Lagrangian swarm model that enables the planar agents, modeled as point masses, to swarm whilst effectively avoiding each other and obstacles in the environment. A novel method, based on an extended Lyapunov approach, is used to construct the model. Importantly, the Lyapunov method ensures a form of practical stability that guarantees an emergent behavior, namely, a cohesive and wellspaced swarm with a constant arrangement of individuals about the swarm centroid. Computer simulations illustrate this basic feature of collective behavior. As an application, we show how multiple planar mobile unicycle-like robots swarm to eventually form patterns in which their velocities and orientations stabilize.

Keywords: Attractive-repulsive swarm model, individual-based swarm model, Lagrangian swarm model, Lyapunov stability, Lyapunov-like function, practical stability, unicycle.

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Authors: Yan Ma, ShunBao Li

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A new approach is adopted in this paper based on Turk and Pentland-s eigenface method. It was found that the probability density function of the distance between the projection vector of the input face image and the average projection vector of the subject in the face database, follows Rayleigh distribution. In order to decrease the false acceptance rate and increase the recognition rate, the input face image has been recognized using two thresholds including the acceptance threshold and the rejection threshold. We also find out that the value of two thresholds will be close to each other as number of trials increases. During the training, in order to reduce the number of trials, the projection vectors for each subject has been averaged. The recognition experiments using the proposed algorithm show that the recognition rate achieves to 92.875% whilst the average number of judgment is only 2.56 times.

Keywords: Eigenface, Face Recognition, Threshold, Rayleigh Distribution, Feature Extraction

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Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

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In this paper, a linear mixed model which has two random effects is broken up into two models. This thesis gets the parameter estimation of the original model and an estimation’s statistical qualities based on these two models. Then many important properties are given by comparing this estimation with other general estimations. At the same time, this paper proves the analysis of variance estimate (ANOVAE) about σ2 of the original model is equal to the least-squares estimation (LSE) about σ2 of these two models. Finally, it also proves that this estimation is better than ANOVAE under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Linear mixed model, Random effects, Parameter estimation, Stein function.

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Authors: R.Vinodha S. Abraham Lincoln, J. Prakash

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Multi-loop (De-centralized) Proportional-Integral- Derivative (PID) controllers have been used extensively in process industries due to their simple structure for control of multivariable processes. The objective of this work is to design multiple-model adaptive multi-loop PID strategy (Multiple Model Adaptive-PID) and neural network based multi-loop PID strategy (Neural Net Adaptive-PID) for the control of multivariable system. The first method combines the output of multiple linear PID controllers, each describing process dynamics at a specific level of operation. The global output is an interpolation of the individual multi-loop PID controller outputs weighted based on the current value of the measured process variable. In the second method, neural network is used to calculate the PID controller parameters based on the scheduling variable that corresponds to major shift in the process dynamics. The proposed control schemes are simple in structure with less computational complexity. The effectiveness of the proposed control schemes have been demonstrated on the CSTR process, which exhibits dynamic non-linearity.

Keywords: Multiple-model Adaptive PID controller, Multivariableprocess, CSTR process.

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Authors: Jamaiah H. Yahaya, Aziz Deraman, Abdul Razak Hamdan, Yusmadi Yah Jusoh

Abstract:

One of the most essential issues in software products is to maintain it relevancy to the dynamics of the user’s requirements and expectation. Many studies have been carried out in quality aspect of software products to overcome these problems. Previous software quality assessment models and metrics have been introduced with strengths and limitations. In order to enhance the assurance and buoyancy of the software products, certification models have been introduced and developed. From our previous experiences in certification exercises and case studies collaborating with several agencies in Malaysia, the requirements for user based software certification approach is identified and demanded. The emergence of social network applications, the new development approach such as agile method and other varieties of software in the market have led to the domination of users over the software. As software become more accessible to the public through internet applications, users are becoming more critical in the quality of the services provided by the software. There are several categories of users in web-based systems with different interests and perspectives. The classifications and metrics are identified through brain storming approach with includes researchers, users and experts in this area. The new paradigm in software quality assessment is the main focus in our research. This paper discusses the classifications of users in web-based software system assessment and their associated factors and metrics for quality measurement. The quality model is derived based on IEEE structure and FCM model. The developments are beneficial and valuable to overcome the constraints and improve the application of software certification model in future.

Keywords: Software certification model, user centric approach, software quality factors, metrics and measurements, web-based system.

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Authors: L. Ramirez, E. Guillén, J. Sánchez

Abstract:

Some of the main goals about telecare such as monitoring, treatment, telediagnostic are deployed with the integration of applications with specific appliances. In order to achieve a coherent model to integrate software, hardware, and healthcare systems, different telehealth models with Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, artificial intelligence, etc. have been implemented, and their advantages are still under analysis. In this paper, we propose an integrated model based on IoT architecture and cloud computing telehealth center. Analytics module is presented as a solution to control an ideal diagnostic about some diseases. Specific features are then compared with the recently deployed conventional models in telemedicine. The main advantage of this model is the availability of controlling the security and privacy about patient information and the optimization on processing and acquiring clinical parameters according to technical characteristics.

Keywords: Analytics, telemedicine, internet of things, cloud computing.

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Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Xiaoyu Kang, Steffen Müller

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In this contribution two approaches for calculating optimal trajectories for highly automated vehicles are presented and compared. The first one is based on a non-linear vehicle model, used for evaluation. The second one is based on a simplified model and can be implemented on a current ECU. In usual driving situations both approaches show very similar results.

Keywords: Trajectory planning, direct method, indirect method, highly automated driving.

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

Abstract:

Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Classification, Bayesian network; structure learning, K2 algorithm, expert knowledge, surface water analysis.

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Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

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This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: Model Based Design, MATLAB, Simulink, Stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop, target language compiler.

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Authors: Choon Ling Sia, Yani Shi, Jiaqi Yan, Huaping Chen

Abstract:

With the development of the Internet, E-commerce is growing at an exponential rate, and lots of online stores are built up to sell their goods online. A major factor influencing the successful adoption of E-commerce is consumer-s trust. For new or unknown Internet business, consumers- lack of trust has been cited as a major barrier to its proliferation. As web sites provide key interface for consumer use of E-Commerce, we investigate the design of web site to build trust in E-Commerce from a design science approach. A conceptual model is proposed in this paper to describe the ontology of online transaction and human-computer interaction. Based on this conceptual model, we provide a personalized webpage design approach using Bayesian networks learning method. Experimental evaluation are designed to show the effectiveness of web personalization in improving consumer-s trust in new or unknown online store.

Keywords: Trust, Web site design, Human-ComputerInteraction, E-Commerce, Design science, Bayesian network.

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Authors: Ghobad Gorji, Hasan Golabi

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to describe the design of an ultra-wideband (UWB) system that is optimized for the low-rate wireless personal area network application. To this aim, we propose a system based on direct chaotic communication (DCC) technology. Based on this system, a 2-GHz wide chaotic signal is produced into the UWB spectrum lower band, i.e., 3.1–5.1 GHz. For this system, two simple modulation schemes, namely chaotic on-off keying (COOK) and differential chaos shift keying  (DCSK) are evaluated first. We propose a modulation scheme, namely Double DCSK, to improve the performance of UWB DCC. Different characteristics of these systems, with Monte Carlo simulations based on the Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) and the IEEE 802.15.4a standard channel models, are compared.

Keywords: Ultra-wideband, UWB, Direct Chaotic Communication, DCC, IEEE 802.15.4a, COOK, DCSK.

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Authors: Alfredo Milani, Silvia Suriani

Abstract:

A model of user behaviour based automated planning is introduced in this work. The behaviour of users of web interactive systems can be described in term of a planning domain encapsulating the timed actions patterns representing the intended user profile. The user behaviour recognition is then posed as a planning problem where the goal is to parse a given sequence of user logs of the observed activities while reaching a final state. A general technique for transforming a timed finite state automata description of the behaviour into a numerical parameter planning model is introduced. Experimental results show that the performance of a planning based behaviour model is effective and scalable for real world applications. A major advantage of the planning based approach is to represent in a single automated reasoning framework problems of plan recognitions, plan synthesis and plan optimisation.

Keywords: User behaviour, Timed Transition Automata, Automated Planning.

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Authors: W. K. Wong, Z. X. Guo, P.Y. Mok

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective order allocation planning problem with the consideration of various real-world production features. A novel hybrid intelligent optimization model, integrating a multi-objective memetic optimization process, a Monte Carlo simulation technique and a heuristic pruning technique, is proposed to handle this problem. Experiments based on industrial data are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results show that (1) the proposed model can effectively solve the investigated problem by providing effective production decision-making solutions, which outperformsan NSGA-II-based optimization process and an industrial method.

Keywords: Multi-objective order allocation planning, Pareto optimization, Memetic algorithm, Mento Carlo simulation

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Authors: R. Henry, J-B. Paulin, St. Fauchille, Ph. Delord, K. Benkirane, A. Brunel

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In this paper the CVA computation of interest rate swap is presented based on its rating. Rating and probability default given by Moody’s Investors Service are used to calculate our CVA for a specific swap with different maturities. With this computation the influence of rating variation can be shown on CVA. Application is made to the analysis of Greek CDS variation during the period of Greek crisis between 2008 and 2011. The main point is the determination of correlation between the fluctuation of Greek CDS cumulative value and the variation of swap CVA due to change of rating.

Keywords: CDS, Computation, CVA, Greek Crisis, Interest Rate Swap, Maturity, Rating, Swap.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, Student Member, B. Bandyopadhyay

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This paper features the mathematical modeling of a single input single output based Timoshenko smart beam. Further, this mathematical model is used to design a multirate output feedback based discrete sliding mode controller using Bartoszewicz law to suppress the flexural vibrations. The first 2 dominant vibratory modes is retained. Here, an application of the discrete sliding mode control in smart systems is presented. The algorithm uses a fast output sampling based sliding mode control strategy that would avoid the use of switching in the control input and hence avoids chattering. This method does not need the measurement of the system states for feedback as it makes use of only the output samples for designing the controller. Thus, this methodology is more practical and easy to implement.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Discretesliding mode control, Bartoszewicz law, Finite Element Method, State space model, Vibration control, Mathematical model, SISO.

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Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Phanu Waraporn, Cholticha Tongsiri

Abstract:

This research aims to create a model for analysis of student motivation behavior on e-Learning based on association rule mining techniques in case of the Information Technology for Communication and Learning Course at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The model was created under association rules, one of the data mining techniques with minimum confidence. The results showed that the student motivation behavior model by using association rule technique can indicate the important variables that influence the student motivation behavior on e-Learning.

Keywords: Motivation behavior, e-learning, moodle log, association rule mining.

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Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

Abstract:

The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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Authors: S. N. Deepa, G. Sugumaran

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new algebraic scheme to design a PID controller for higher order linear time invariant continuous systems. Modified PSO (MPSO) based model order formulation techniques have applied to obtain the effective formulated second order system. A controller is tuned to meet the desired performance specification by using pole-zero cancellation method. Proposed PID controller is attached with both higher order system and formulated second order system. The closed loop response is observed for stabilization process and compared with general PSO based formulated second order system. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical example from literature.

Keywords: Higher order systems, model order formulation, modified particle swarm optimization, PID controller, pole-zero cancellation.

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

Abstract:

Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: Driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable.

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Authors: S. Hossainpour, A. R. Binesh

Abstract:

High-velocity oxygen fuel (HVOF) thermal spraying uses a combustion process to heat the gas flow and coating material. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed to predict gas dynamic behavior in a HVOF thermal spray gun in which premixed oxygen and propane are burnt in a combustion chamber linked to a parallel-sided nozzle. The CFD analysis is applied to investigate axisymmetric, steady-state, turbulent, compressible, chemically reacting, subsonic and supersonic flow inside and outside the gun. The gas velocity, temperature, pressure and Mach number distributions are presented for various locations inside and outside the gun. The calculated results show that the most sensitive parameters affecting the process are fuel-to-oxygen gas ratio and total gas flow rate. Gas dynamic behavior along the centerline of the gun depends on both total gas flow rate and fuel-to-oxygen gas ratio. The numerical simulations show that the axial gas velocity and Mach number distribution depend on both flow rate and ratio; the highest velocity is achieved at the higher flow rate and most fuel-rich ratio. In addition, the results reported in this paper illustrate that the numerical simulation can be one of the most powerful and beneficial tools for the HVOF system design, optimization and performance analysis.

Keywords: HVOF, CFD, gas dynamics, thermal spray, combustion.

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Authors: Yang Bao, LuJing Zhang

Abstract:

Typical Intelligent Decision Support System is 4-based, its design composes of Data Warehouse, Online Analytical Processing, Data Mining and Decision Supporting based on models, which is called Decision Support System Based on Data Warehouse (DSSBDW). This way takes ETL,OLAP and DM as its implementing means, and integrates traditional model-driving DSS and data-driving DSS into a whole. For this kind of problem, this paper analyzes the DSSBDW architecture and DW model, and discusses the following key issues: ETL designing and Realization; metadata managing technology using XML; SQL implementing, optimizing performance, data mapping in OLAP; lastly, it illustrates the designing principle and method of DW in DSSBDW.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Data Warehouse, Data Mining.

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Authors: M. K. Pradhan, Mayank Meena, Shubham Sen, Arvind Singh

Abstract:

In this study, a multi objective optimization for end milling of Al 6061 alloy has been presented to provide better surface quality and higher Material Removal Rate (MRR). The input parameters considered for the analysis are spindle speed, depth of cut and feed. The experiments were planned as per Taguchis design of experiment, with L27 orthogonal array. The Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) has been used for transforming multiple quality responses into a single response and the weights of the each performance characteristics are determined by employing the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), so that their relative importance can be properly and objectively described. The results reveal that Taguchi based G-PCA can effectively acquire the optimal combination of cutting parameters.

Keywords: Material Removal Rate, Surface Roughness, Taguchi Method, Grey Relational Analysis, Principal Component Analysis.

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Authors: Mohamed Ali KAMMOUN, Ahmed Ben HAMIDA

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel statistical approach to corpus-based speech synthesis. Classically, phonetic information is defined and considered as acoustic reference to be respected. In this way, many studies were elaborated for acoustical unit classification. This type of classification allows separating units according to their symbolic characteristics. Indeed, target cost and concatenation cost were classically defined for unit selection. In Corpus-Based Speech Synthesis System, when using large text corpora, cost functions were limited to a juxtaposition of symbolic criteria and the acoustic information of units is not exploited in the definition of the target cost. In this manuscript, we token in our consideration the unit phonetic information corresponding to acoustic information. This would be realized by defining a probabilistic linguistic Bi-grams model basically used for unit selection. The selected units would be extracted from the English TIMIT corpora.

Keywords: Unit selection, Corpus-based Speech Synthesis, Bigram model

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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