Search results for: Project forecasting

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.

Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.

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Authors: Sangil Lee, Kwangyeol Ryu, Kezia Amanda Kurniadi, Yongju Park

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Nowadays, many manufacturing companies try to reinforce their competitiveness or find a breakthrough by considering collaboration. In Korea, more than 900 manufacturing companies are using web-based collaboration systems developed by the government-led project, referred to as i-Manufacturing. The system supports some similar functions of Product Data Management (PDM) as well as Project Management System (PMS). A web-based collaboration system provides many useful functions for collaborative works. This system, however, does not support new linking services between buyers and suppliers. Therefore, in order to find new collaborative partners, this paper proposes a framework which creates new connections between buyers and suppliers facilitating their collaboration, referred to as Excellent Manufacturer Scouting System (EMSS). EMSS plays a role as a bridge between overseas buyers and suppliers. As a part of study on EMSS, we also propose an evaluation method of manufacturability of potential partners with six main factors. Based on the results of evaluation, buyers may get a good guideline to choose their new partners before getting into negotiation processes with them.

Keywords: Supplier Scouting, Supplier Discovery, Collaboration, Web-based Collaboration System, Excellent Manufacturer Scouting System (EMSS)

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Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

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Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energy crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes increasingly necessary to change energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy, not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption, but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energy communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next 10 years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series.

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: Technical Analysis, Expert System, Law of demand, Stocks, Portfolio Analysis, Indian Automotive Sector.

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Authors: Nives Mikelic Preradovic, Damir Boras, Tomislava Lauc

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The paper presents the service learning project titled DicDucFac (idea-leadership-product), that was planned and conducted by the team of information sciences students. It was planned as a workshop dealing with the application of modern social media (Facebook, YouTube, Gmail) for the purposes of selfpromotion, free advertising via social networks and marketing own ideas and/or products in the virtual world. The workshop was organized for highly-skilled computer literate unemployed youth. These youth, as final beneficiaries, will be able to apply what they learned in this workshop to “the real world“, increasing their chances for employment and self-employment. The results of the project reveal that the basic, active-learning principles embodied in our teaching approach allow students to learn more effectively and gain essential life skills (from computer applications to teamwork) that can only be learned by doing. It also shows that our students received the essentials of professional ethics and citizenship through direct, personal engagement in professional activities and the life of the community.

Keywords: Service Learning, Innovation, Engaged Citizenship, Leadership, Social Networks, Marketing.

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Authors: Adel Aloraini

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Financial forecasting using machine learning techniques has received great efforts in the last decide . In this ongoing work, we show how machine learning of graphical models will be able to infer a visualized causal interactions between different banks in the Saudi equities market. One important discovery from such learned causal graphs is how companies influence each other and to what extend. In this work, a set of graphical models named Gaussian graphical models with developed ensemble penalized feature selection methods that combine ; filtering method, wrapper method and a regularizer will be shown. A comparison between these different developed ensemble combinations will also be shown. The best ensemble method will be used to infer the causal relationships between banks in Saudi equities market.

Keywords: Causal interactions , banks, feature selection, regularizere,

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Authors: B. E. Narkhede, S. K. Mahajan, B. T. Patil, R. D. Raut

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Information quality is a major performance measure for an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system of any firm. This study identifies various critical success factors of information quality. The effect of various critical success factors like project management, reengineering efforts and interdepartmental communications on information quality is analyzed using a multiple regression model. Here quantitative data are collected from respondents from various firms through structured questionnaire for assessment of the information quality, project management, reengineering efforts and interdepartmental communications. The validity and reliability of the data are ensured using techniques like factor analysis, computing of Cronbach’s alpha. This study gives relative importance of each of the critical success factors. The findings suggest that among the various factors influencing information quality careful reengineering efforts are the most influencing factor. This paper gives clear insight to managers and practitioners regarding the relative importance of critical success factors influencing information quality so that they can formulate a strategy at the beginning of ERP system implementation.

Keywords: Enterprise resource planning, information systems, multiple regression, information quality.

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Authors: R. Moradifar, M. Masahebfard, M. Zahir

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In this article the investigation about installation heat recovery steam generation (HRSG) on the exhaust of turbo generators of phases 2&3 at South Pars Gas Complex is presented. The temperature of exhaust gas is approximately 665 degree centigrade, Installation of heat recovery boiler was simulated in ThermoFlow 17.0.2 software, based on test operation data and the equipments site operation conditions in Pars exclusive economical energy area, the affect of installation HRSG package on the available gas turbine and its operation parameters, ambient temperature, the exhaust temperatures steam flow rate were investigated. Base on the results recommended HRSG package should have the capacity for 98 ton per hour high pressure steam generation this refinery, by use of exhaust of three gas turbines for each package in operation condition of each refinery at 30 degree centigrade. Besides saving energy this project will be an Environment-Friendly project. The Payback Period is estimated approximately 1.8 year, with considering Clean Development Mechanism.

Keywords: HRSG, South pars Gas complex, ThermoFlow 17.0.2 software, energy, turbo generators.

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar, Jatan Talati

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This paper is an attempt to develop an Integrated Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) for a smart city project in Western India. Integrated transportation is one of the enablers of smart transportation for providing a seamless intercity as well as regional level transportation experience. The success of a smart city project at the city level for transportation is providing proper integration to different mass rapid transit modes by way of integrating information, physical, network of routes fares, etc. The methodology adopted for this study was primary data research through questionnaire survey. The respondents of the questionnaire survey have responded on the issues about their perceptions on the ways and means to improve public transport services in urban cities. The respondents were also required to identify the factors and attributes which might motivate more people to shift towards the public mode. Also, the respondents were questioned about the factors which they feel might restrain the integration of various modes of MRTS. Furthermore, this study also focuses on developing a utility equation for respondents with the help of multiple linear regression analysis and its probability to shift to public transport for certain factors listed in the questionnaire. It has been observed that for shifting to public transport, the most important factors that need to be considered were travel time saving and comfort rating. Also, an Integrated MRTS can be obtained by combining metro rail with BRTS, metro rail with monorail, monorail with BRTS and metro rail with Indian railways. Providing a common smart card to transport users for accessing all the different available modes would be a pragmatic solution towards integration of the available modes of MRTS.

Keywords: Mass rapid transit systems, smart city, metro rail, bus rapid transit system, multiple linear regression, smart card, automated fare collection system.

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Authors: Ali Youniss Aidbaiss, G. Unnikrishnan, Anoob Hakim

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Scope changes, scope creeps, cost and time overruns have become common in projects in the oil and gas sector. Even in repetitive projects, failure to implement lessons learnt and correct past mistakes have resulted in various setbacks. This paper describes the concept of reusing successfully implemented design packages as templates for repetitive projects, and thereby lowering the instances of project failures. Units or systems successfully installed in projects can be identified and taken up for preparing template design packages. Standardization of units and systems helps to develop templates from successful designs which can be repeatedly used with confidence. These packages can be used with minimum modifications for developing FEED packages faster, saving cost and other valuable resources. Lessons learnt from the completed project incorporated in the templates avoid repeating past mistakes during detailed design, procurement and execution. With template packages, consistent quality can be maintained for similar projects, avoiding scope creep and scope changes which will ultimately result in cost and time savings.

Keywords: Engineering work package, repetitive construction, template design package, time saving in projects.

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Authors: J. Koiso-Kanttila, A. Soikkeli, A. Aapaoja

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Construction in Finland is focusing increasingly on renovation instead of conventional new construction, and this trend will continue to grow in the coming years and decades. Renovation of the large number of suburban residential apartment buildings built in the 1960s and 1970s poses a particular challenge. However, renovation projects are demanding for the residents of these buildings, since they usually are uninitiated in construction issues. On the other hand, renovation projects generally apply the operating models of new construction. Nevertheless, the residents of an existing residential apartment building are some of the best experts on the site. Thus, in this research project we applied a relational model in developing and testing at case sites a planning process that employs interactive planning methods. Current residents, housing company managers, the city zoning manager, the contractor’s and prefab element supplier’s representatives, professional designers and researchers all took part in the planning. The entire interactive planning process progressed phase by phase as the participants’ and designers’ concerted discussion and ideation process, so that the end result was a renovation plan desired by the residents.

Keywords: Apartment building renovation, interactive planning, project alliance, user-orientedness.

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Authors: Y. Laaroussi, Z. Guennoun, A. Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: Extreme values theory, Fractals dimensions, Peaks Over Threshold, Rainfall occurrences.

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Authors: Sevgi Özlem Bulu, Arif Furkan Mendi, Tolga Erol, İzzet Gökhan Özbilgin

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The rapid progress of technology in today's competitive conditions has also accelerated companies' technology development activities. As a result, companies are paying more attention to R&D studies and are beginning to allocate a larger share to R&D projects. A more systematic, comprehensive, target-oriented implementation of R&D studies is crucial for the company to achieve successful results. As a consequence, Technology Roadmap (TRM) is gaining importance as a management tool. It has critical prospects for achieving medium and long term success as it contains decisions about past business, future plans, technological infrastructure. When studies on TRM are examined, projects to be placed on the roadmap are selected by many different methods. Generally preferred methods are based on multi-criteria decision making methods. Management of selected projects becomes an important point after the selection phase of the projects. At this stage, TRM are used. TRM can be created in many different ways so that each institution can prepare its own Technology Roadmap according to their strategic plan. Depending on the intended use, there can be TRM with different layers at different sizes. In the evaluation phase of the R&D projects and in the creation of the TRM, HAVELSAN, Turkey's largest defense company in the software field, carries out this process with great care and diligence. At the beginning, suggested R&D projects are evaluated by the Technology Management Board (TMB) of HAVELSAN in accordance with the company's resources, objectives, and targets. These projects are presented to the TMB periodically for evaluation within the framework of certain criteria by board members. After the necessary steps have been passed, the approved projects are added to the time-based TRM, which is composed of four layers as market, product, project and technology. The use of a four-layered roadmap provides a clearer understanding and visualization of company strategy and objectives. This study demonstrates the benefits of using TRM, four-layered Technology Roadmapping and the possibilities for the institutions in the defense industry.

Keywords: Project selection, R&D in defense industry, R&D project selection, technology roadmapping.

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Authors: Allagui Hatem, Ghodbane Fathi

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The primary objective of this paper is to study the thermal effects of the electric arc on the breaker apparatus contacts for forecasting and improving the contact durability. We will propose a model which takes account of the main influence factors on the erosion contacts. This phenomenon is very complicated because the amount of ejected metal is not necessarily constituted by the whole melted metal bath but this depends on the balance of forces on the contact surface. Consequently, to calculate the metal ejection coefficient, we propose a method which consists in comparing the experimental results with the calculated ones. The proposed model estimates the mass lost by vaporization, by droplets ejection and by the extraction mechanism of liquid or solid metal. In the one-dimensional geometry, to calculate of the contact heating, we used Green’s function which expresses the point source and allows the transition to the surface source. However, for the two- dimensional model we used explicit and implicit numerical methods. The results are similar to those found by Wilson’s experiments.

Keywords: Electric arc, thermal effect, erosion, contact, durability.

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Authors: E.Assareh, M.A. Behrang, R. Assareh, N. Hedayat

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An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Fossil Fuels, Electricity, Forecasting.

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Bafa, C. Fassoulas, M. Panoutsopoulou

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The role of volunteers in disaster management is of decisive importance and the need of their involvement is well recognized, both for prevention measures and for disaster management. During major catastrophes, whereas professional personnel are outsourced, the role of volunteers is crucial. In Greece experience has shown that various groups operating in the civil protection mechanism like local administration staff or volunteers, in many cases do not have the necessary knowledge and information on best practices to act against natural disasters. One of the major problems is the lack of volunteers’ education and training. In the above given framework, this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of civil protection volunteers in Greece. Furthermore, the implementation of earthquake protection measures at individual, family and working level, are explored. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding pre-earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans in the workplace. The questionnaires were administered to citizens from different regions of the country and who attend the civil protection training program: “Protect Myself and Others”. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self-protective actions; b) existence of emergency planning at home; c) existence of emergency planning at workplace (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills); and, d) respondents` perception about their level of earthquake preparedness. The results revealed a serious lack of knowledge and preparedness among respondents. Taking into consideration the aforementioned gap and in order to raise awareness and improve preparedness and effective response of volunteers acting in civil protection, the EVANDE project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC). The aim of that project is to educate and train civil protection volunteers on the most serious natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods, and earthquakes, and thus, increase their performance.

Keywords: Civil protection, earthquake preparedness, volunteers.

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Authors: Muhamad Azani Yahya, Vikneswaran Munikanan, Mohammed Alias Yusof

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Lean thinking holds the potential for improving the construction sector, and therefore, it is a concept that should be adopted by construction sector players and academicians in the real industry. Bridging from that, a learning process for construction sector players regarding this matter should be the agenda in gaining the knowledge in preparation for their career. Lean principles offer opportunities for reducing lead times, eliminating non-value adding activities, reducing variability, and are facilitated by methods such as pull scheduling, simplified operations and buffer reduction. Thus, the drive for rapid construction, which is a systematic approach in enhancing efficiency to deliver a project using time reduction, while lean is the continuous process of eliminating waste, meeting or exceeding all customer requirements, focusing on the entire value stream and pursuing perfection in the execution of a constructed project. The methodology presented is shown to be valid through literature, interviews and questionnaire. The results show that the majority of construction sector players unfamiliar with lean thinking and they agreed that it can improve the construction process flow. With this background knowledge established and identified, best practices and recommended action are drawn.

Keywords: Construction improvement, rapid construction, time reduction, lean construction.

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Authors: Areerut J.

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Experimental Film Class Project is supported by the Institute for Research and Development at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This project is purported to provide academic and professional services to improve the quality standards of the community and locals in accordance with the mission of the university, which is to improve and expand knowledge for the community and to develop and transfer such knowledge and professions to the next generation. Eventually, it leads to sustainable development because the development of human resources is deemed as the key for sustainable development. Moreover, the Experimental Film Class is an integral part of the teaching of film production at Suan Sunandha International School of Art (SISA). By means of giving opportunities to students for participation in projects by sharing experience, skill and knowledge and participation in field activities, it helps students in the film production major to enhance their abilities and potentials as preparation for their readiness in the marketplace. Additionally, in this class, we provide basic film knowledge, screenwriting techniques, editing and subtitles including uploading videos on social media such as YouTube and Facebook for the participant students.

Keywords: Experimental Film Class, Watbangkapom School, Participant students, Basic of film production, Film Workshop.

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Authors: Zulhisyam Salleh, Fizatul Aini Patakor, Rosilah Wahab, Awangku Khairul Ridzwan Awangku Jaya

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Autism is a lifelong developmental disability that affects how people perceive the world and interact with others. Most of these children have difficulty with fine motor skills which typically struggle with handwriting and fine activities in their routine life such as getting dressed and controlled use of the everyday tool. Because fine motor activities encompass so many routine functions, a fine motor delay can have a measurable negative impact on a person's ability to handle daily practical tasks. This project proposed a simple fine motor exercise aid plus the game (exergame) for autistic children who discover from fine motor difficulties. The proposed exergame will be blinking randomly and user needs to bend their finger accordingly. It will notify the user, whether they bend the right finger or not. The system is realized using Arduino, which is programmed to control all the operated circuit. The feasibility studies with six autistic children were conducted and found the child interested in using exergame and could quickly get used to it. This study provides important guidance for future investigations of the exergame potential for accessing and improving fine motor skill among autistic children.

Keywords: Autism children, Arduino project, fine motor skill, finger exergame.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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For decades financial economists have been attempted to determine the optimal investment policy by recognizing the option value embedded in irreversible investment whose project value evolves as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). This paper aims to examine the effects of the optimal investment trigger and of the misspecification of stochastic processes on investment in real options applications. Specifically, the former explores the consequence of adopting optimal investment rules on the distributions of corporate value under the correct assumption of stochastic process while the latter analyzes the influence on the distributions of corporate value as a result of the misspecification of stochastic processes, i.e., mistaking an alternative process as a GBM. It is found that adopting the correct optimal investment policy may increase corporate value by shifting the value distribution rightward, and the misspecification effect may decrease corporate value by shifting the value distribution leftward. The adoption of the optimal investment trigger has a major impact on investment to such an extent that the downside risk of investment is truncated at the project value of zero, thereby moving the value distributions rightward. The analytical framework is also extended to situations where collection lags are in place, and the result indicates that collection lags reduce the effects of investment trigger and misspecification on investment in an opposite way.

Keywords: GBM, real options, investment trigger, misspecification, collection lags

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Authors: Sophie Huck, Knut Linke

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This study will examine how IT practitioners can be motivated for IT studies and which kind of support they need during their occupational studies. Within this research project, the challenge of supporting students being engaged in business for several years arose. Here, it is especially important to successfully guide them through their studies. The problem of this group is that they finished their school education years ago. In order to gather first experiences, preliminary e-learning courses were introduced and tested with a group of users studying General Management. They had to work with these courses and have been questioned later on about their approach to the different methods. Moreover, a second group of potential students was interviewed with the help of online questionnaires to give information about their expectations regarding extra occupational studies. We also want to present best practices and cases in e-education in the subarea of mathematics and distance learning. Within these cases and practices, we use state of the art systems and technologies in e-education to find a way to increase teaching quality and the success of students. Our research indicated that the first group of enrolled students appreciated the new preliminary e-learning courses. The second group of potential students was convinced of this way of learning as a significant component of extra occupational studies. It can be concluded that this part of the project clarified the acceptance of the e-learning strategy by both groups and led to satisfactory results with the enrolled students.

Keywords: E-learning evaluation, self-learning, virtual classroom, virtual learning environments.

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Authors: Ali H. Mahfouz, Hossam E. M.Sallam, Abdulwali Wazir, Hamod H. Kharezi

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The soil profile at site of the bridge project includes soft fine grained soil layer located between 5.0 m to 11.0 m in depth, it has high water content, low SPT no., and low bearing capacity. The clay layer induces high settlement due to surcharge application of earth embankment at ramp T1, ramp T2, and ramp T3 especially at heights from 9m right 3m. Calculated settlement for embankment heights less than 3m may be accepted regarding Saudi Code for soil and foundation. The soil and groundwater at the project site comprise high contents of sulfates and chlorides of high aggressively on concrete and steel bars, respectively. Regarding results of the study, it has been recommended to use stone column piles or new technology named PCC piles as soil improvement to improve the bearing capacity of the weak layer. The new technology is cast in-situ thin wall concrete pipe piles (PCC piles), it has economically advantageous and high workability. The technology can save time of implementation and cost of application is almost 30% of other types of piles.

Keywords: Soft foundation soil, bearing capacity, bridge ramps, soil improvement, PCC piles.

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Authors: Mustafa Engin Başoğlu, Bekir Çakir

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Since large part of electricity is generated by using fossil based resources, energy is an important agenda for countries. In this context, renewable energy sources are alternative to conventional sources due to the depletion of fossil resources, increasing awareness of climate change and global warming concerns. Solar, wind and hydropower energy are the main renewable energy sources. Among of them, since installed capacity of wind power has increased approximately eight times between 2008 - November of 2014, wind energy is a promising source for Turkey. Furthermore, signing of Kyoto Protocol can be accepted as a milestone for Turkey's energy policy. Turkish Government has announced Vision 2023 (energy targets by 2023) in 2010-2014 Strategic Plan prepared by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR). Energy targets in this plan can be summarized as follows: Share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is 30% of total electricity generation by 2023. Installed capacity of wind energy will be 20 GW by 2023. Other renewable energy sources such as solar, hydropower and geothermal are encouraged with new incentive mechanisms. Dependence on foreign energy is reduced for sustainability and energy security. On the other hand, since Turkey is surrounded by three coastal areas, wind energy potential is convenient for wind power application. As of November of 2014, total installed capacity of wind power plants is 3.51 GW and a lot of wind power plants are under construction with capacity 1.16 GW. Turkish government also encourages the locally manufactured equipments. In this context, one of the projects funded by private sector, universities and TUBİTAK names as MILRES is an important project aimed to promote the use wind energy in electricity generation. Within this project, wind turbine with 500 kW power has been produced and will be installed at the beginning of the 2015. After that, by using the experience obtained from the first phase of the project, a wind turbine with 2.5 MW power will be manufactured in an industrial scale.

Keywords: Wind energy, wind speed, Vision 2023, MILRES (national wind energy system), wind energy potential, Turkey.

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Authors: Zamri Noranai, Mohammad Zainal Md Yusof

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Sustainable energy usage has been recognized as one of the important measure to increase the competitiveness of the nation globally. Many strong emphases were given in the Ninth Malaysia Plan (RMK9) to improve energy efficient especially to government buildings. With this in view, a project to investigate the potential of energy saving in selected building in Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) was carried out. In this project, a case study involving electric energy consumption of the academic staff office building was conducted. The scope of the study include to identify energy consumption in a selected building, to study energy saving opportunities, to analyse cost investment in term of economic and to identify users attitude with respect to energy usage. The MS1525:2001, Malaysian Standard -Code of practice on energy efficiency and use of renewable energy for non-residential buildings was used as reference. Several energy efficient measures were considered and their merits and priority were compared. Improving human behavior can reduce energy consumption by 6% while technical measure can reduce energy consumption by 44%. Two economic analysis evaluation methods were applied; they are the payback period method and net present value method.

Keywords: office building, energy, efficiency, economic analyses

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Authors: Chris Fersterer, Col Fay, Tobias Danielmeier, Kat Achterberg, Scott Willis

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New Zealand, an island nation, has an extensive coastline peppered with small communities of iconic buildings known as Bachs. Post WWII, these modest buildings were constructed by their owners as retreats and generally were small, low cost, often using recycled material and often they fell below current acceptable building standards. In the latter part of the 20^th century, real estate prices in many of these communities remained low and these areas became permanent residences for people attracted to this affordable lifestyle choice. The Blueskin Resilient Communities Trust (BRCT) is an organisation that recognises the vulnerability of communities in low lying settlements as now being prone to increased flood threat brought about by climate change and sea level rise. Some of the inhabitants of Blueskin Bay, Otago, NZ have already found their properties to be un-insurable because of increased frequency of flood events and property values have slumped accordingly. Territorial authorities also acknowledge this increased risk and have created additional compliance measures for new buildings that are less than 2 m above tidal peaks. Community resilience becomes an additional concern where inhabitants are attracted to a lifestyle associated with a specific location and its people when this lifestyle is unable to be met in a suburban or city context. Traditional models of social housing fail to provide the sense of community connectedness and identity enjoyed by the current residents of Blueskin Bay. BRCT have partnered with the Otago Polytechnic Design School to design a new form of community housing that can react to this environmental change. It is a longitudinal project incorporating participatory approaches as a means of getting people ‘on board’, to understand complex systems and co-develop solutions. In the first period, they are seeking industry support and funding to develop a transportable and fully self-contained housing model that exploits current technologies. BRCT also hope that the building will become an educational tool to highlight climate change issues facing us today. This paper uses the Climate Safe House (CSH) as a case study for education in architectural sustainability through experiential learning offered as part of the Otago Polytechnics Bachelor of Design. Students engage with the project with research methodologies, including site surveys, resident interviews, data sourced from government agencies and physical modelling. The process involves collaboration across design disciplines including product and interior design but also includes connections with industry, both within the education institution and stakeholder industries introduced through BRCT. This project offers a rich learning environment where students become engaged through project based learning within a community of practice, including architecture, construction, energy and other related fields. The design outcomes are expressed in a series of public exhibitions and forums where community input is sought in a truly participatory process.

Keywords: Community resilience, problem based learning, project based learning, case study.

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Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of information and communication technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies. In this study, input-output (IO) and statistical approaches are used as analysis instruments. More specifically, this study employs Leontief IO coefficients and constrained multivariate regression (CMR) model in order to achieve the purpose. The periods of initial and forecast in this study are 2005 and 2015, respectively. In this study, ICT is represented by ICT capital stocks. This study conducts two levels of analysis, namely macro and micro. The results of macro level analysis show that the dynamics of Japanese economies on the forecast period, relative to the initial period, are not so high. We focus on (1) commerce, (2) business services and office supplies, and (3) personal services sectors when conducting the analysis of the micro level. Further, we analyze its specific IO coefficients when doing this analysis. The results of the analysis explain that ICT gives a strong influence on the changes of these coefficients from initial to forecast periods.

Keywords: Forecast, ICT, Structural changes, Japanese economies.

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Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

Abstract:

Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

Abstract:

Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization.

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