Search results for: Newton-Raphson method

Authors: Sophia Fry, Mahir Irtiza, Alexa Hoffman, Yousef Sardahi

Abstract:

This study presents an intelligent control algorithm for a flexible robotic arm. Fuzzy control is used to control the motion of the arm to maintain the arm tip at the desired position while reducing vibration and increasing the system speed of response. The Fuzzy controller (FC) is based on adding the tip angular position to the arm deflection angle and using their sum as a feedback signal to the control algorithm. This reduces the complexity of the FC in terms of the input variables, number of membership functions, fuzzy rules, and control structure. Also, the design of the fuzzy controller is model-free and uses only our knowledge about the system. To show the efficacy of the FC, the control algorithm is implemented on the flexible joint manipulator (FJM) developed by Quanser. The results show that the proposed control method is effective in terms of response time, overshoot, and vibration amplitude.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic control, model-free control, flexible joint manipulators, nonlinear control.

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Authors: Nabli L., Dhouibi H., Collart Dutilleul S., Craye E.

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The existence of maximal durations drastically modifies the performance evaluation in Discrete Event Systems (DES). The same particularity may be found on systems where the associated constraints do not concern the time. For example weight measures, in chemical industry, are used in order to control the quantity of consumed raw materials. This parameter also takes a fundamental part in the product quality as the correct transformation process is based upon a given percentage of each essence. Weight regulation therefore increases the global productivity of the system by decreasing the quantity of rejected products. In this paper we present an approach based on mixing different characteristics theories, the fuzzy system and Petri net system to describe the behaviour. An industriel application on a tobacco manufacturing plant, where the critical parameter is the weight is presented as an illustration.

Keywords: Petri Net, Manufacturing systems, Performance evaluation, Fuzzy logic, Tolerant system.

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Authors: R. Leelaruji, V. Knazkins

Abstract:

This paper proposes a methodology for mitigating the occurrence of cascading failure in stressed power systems. The methodology is essentially based on predicting voltage instability in the power system using a voltage stability index and then devising a corrective action in order to increase the voltage stability margin. The paper starts with a brief description of the cascading failure mechanism which is probable root cause of severe blackouts. Then, the voltage instability indices are introduced in order to evaluate stability limit. The aim of the analysis is to assure that the coordination of protection, by adopting load shedding scheme, capable of enhancing performance of the system after the major location of instability is determined. Finally, the proposed method to generate instability prediction is introduced.

Keywords: Blackouts, cascading failure, voltage stability indices, singular value decomposition, load shedding.

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Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

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To understand the factors which affect impact damage on composite structures, particularly the effects of impact position and ribs. In this paper, a finite element model (FEM) of low-velocity impact damage on the composite structure was established via the nonlinear finite element method, combined with the user-defined materials subroutine (VUMAT) of the ABAQUS software. The structural elements chosen for the investigation comprised a series of stiffened composite panels, representative of real aircraft structure. By impacting the panels at different positions relative to the ribs, the effect of relative position of ribs was found out. Then the simulation results and the experiments data were compared. Finally, the factors which affect impact damage on the structures were discussed. The paper was helpful for the design of stiffened composite structures.

Keywords: Stiffened, Low-velocity, Impact, Abaqus, Impact Energy.

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Authors: Taïeb Branci, Djamal Yahmi, Abdelhamid Bouchair, Eric Fourneley

Abstract:

According to current seismic codes the structures are calculated using the capacity design procedure based on the concept of shear at the base depending on several parameters including behavior factor which is considered to be the most important parameter. The behavior factor allows designing the structure when it is at its ultimate limit state taking into account its energy dissipation through its plastic deformation. The aim of the present study is to assess the basic parameters on which is composed the behavior factor among them the reduction factor due to ductility, and those due to redundancy and the overstrength for steel moment-resisting frames of different heights and regular configuration. Analyses are conducted on these frames using the nonlinear static method where the effect of some parameters on the behavior factor, such as the number of stories and the number of spans, are taken into account. The results show that the behavior factor is rather sensitive to the variation of the number of stories and bays.

Keywords: Behavior, code, frame, ductility, overstrength, redundancy, plastic.

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Authors: Vahid Zeighami, Mohsen Ghasemi, Reza Akbari

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In this work, a Multi-Level Artificial Bee Colony (called MLABC) for optimizing numerical test functions is presented. In MLABC, two species are used. The first species employs n colonies where each of them optimizes the complete solution vector. The cooperation between these colonies is carried out by exchanging information through a leader colony, which contains a set of elite bees. The second species uses a cooperative approach in which the complete solution vector is divided to k sub-vectors, and each of these sub-vectors is optimized by a colony. The cooperation between these colonies is carried out by compiling sub-vectors into the complete solution vector. Finally, the cooperation between two species is obtained by exchanging information. The proposed algorithm is tested on a set of well-known test functions. The results show that MLABC algorithm provides efficiency and robustness to solve numerical functions.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony, cooperative artificial bee colony, multilevel cooperation.

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Authors: Md Abdullah Al Mashud, M. Tariquzzaman, M. Jahangir Alam, Tapan Kumar Godder, M. Mahbubur Rahman

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This paper presents a Monte Carlo (MC) method-based dose distributions on lung tumor for 6 MV photon beam to improve the dosimetric accuracy for cancer treatment. The polystyrene which is tissue equivalent material to the lung tumor density is used in this research. In the empirical calculations, TRS-398 formalism of IAEA has been used, and the setup was made according to the ICRU recommendations. The research outcomes were compared with the state-of-the-art experimental results. From the experimental results, it is observed that the proposed based approach provides more accurate results and improves the accuracy than the existing approaches. The average %variation between measured and TPS simulated values was obtained 1.337±0.531, which shows a substantial improvement comparing with the state-of-the-art technology.

Keywords: Lung tumor, Monte Carlo, polystyrene, elekta synergy, Monaco Planning System.

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Authors: H. Baazaoui Zghal, S. Faiz, H. Ben Ghezala

Abstract:

Data mining is an extraordinarily demanding field referring to extraction of implicit knowledge and relationships, which are not explicitly stored in databases. A wide variety of methods of data mining have been introduced (classification, characterization, generalization...). Each one of these methods includes more than algorithm. A system of data mining implies different user categories,, which mean that the user-s behavior must be a component of the system. The problem at this level is to know which algorithm of which method to employ for an exploratory end, which one for a decisional end, and how can they collaborate and communicate. Agent paradigm presents a new way of conception and realizing of data mining system. The purpose is to combine different algorithms of data mining to prepare elements for decision-makers, benefiting from the possibilities offered by the multi-agent systems. In this paper the agent framework for data mining is introduced, and its overall architecture and functionality are presented. The validation is made on spatial data. Principal results will be presented.

Keywords: Databases, data mining, multi-agent, spatial datamart.

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Authors: M. Abbasi Dezfouli, S. Mazraeh, M. H. Yektaie

Abstract:

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) consists of many sensor nodes that are placed on unattended environments such as military sites in order to collect important information. Implementing a secure protocol that can prevent forwarding forged data and modifying content of aggregated data and has low delay and overhead of communication, computing and storage is very important. This paper presents a new protocol for concealed data aggregation (CDA). In this protocol, the network is divided to virtual cells, nodes within each cell produce a shared key to send and receive of concealed data with each other. Considering to data aggregation in each cell is locally and implementing a secure authentication mechanism, data aggregation delay is very low and producing false data in the network by malicious nodes is not possible. To evaluate the performance of our proposed protocol, we have presented computational models that show the performance and low overhead in our protocol.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks, Security, Concealed Data Aggregation.

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Authors: Sam, Ng, Lewis Leighton, Sam Atkinson, Carson Yan, Landan Hu, Leslie Cheung, Brian Yap, Kent Lung, Ketat Sarakune

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This paper presents a method for verifying cryptocurrency reserves that balances the need for both transparency and data confidentiality. Our methodology employs cryptographic techniques, including Merkle Trees, Bulletproof, and zkSnark, to verify that total assets equal or exceed total liabilities, represented by customer funds. Notably, this verification is achieved without disclosing sensitive information such as the total asset value, customer count, or cold wallet addresses. We delve into the construction and implementation of this methodology. While the system is robust and scalable, we also identify areas for potential enhancements to improve its efficiency and versatility. As the digital asset landscape continues to evolve, our approach provides a solid foundation for ensuring continued trust and security in digital asset platforms.

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, crypto-currency, proof-of-reserve, por, zero-knowledge, zkpor.

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Authors: Moch. Agus Choiron, Yoshihiro Kurata, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi

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The contact width is important design parameter for optimizing the design of new metal gasket for asbestos substitution gasket. The contact width is found have relationship with the helium leak quantity. In the increasing of axial load value, the helium leak quantity is decreasing and the contact width is increasing. This study provides validity method using simulation analysis and the result is compared to experimental using pressure sensitive paper. The results denote similar trend data between simulation and experimental result. Final evaluation is determined by helium leak quantity to check leakage performance of gasket design. Considering the phenomena of position change on the convex contact, it can be developed the optimization of gasket design by increasing contact width.

Keywords: contact width, simulation, pressure sensitive paper.

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Authors: Meichen Lee, Michael K. H. Leung

Abstract:

In recent years, visible-light activated photocatalysis has become a major field of intense researches for the higher efficiency of solar energy utilizations. Many attempts have been made on the modification of wide band gap semiconductors, while more and more efforts emphasize on cost-effective synthesis of visible-light activated catalysts. In this work, BiOBr nanoplates with band gap of visible-light range are synthesized through a promising microwave solvothermal method. The treatment time period and temperature dependent BiOBr nanosheets of various particle sizes are investigated through SEM. BiOBr synthesized under the condition of 160°C for 60 mins shows the most uniform particle sizes around 311 nm and the highest surface-to-volume ratio on account of its smallest average particle sizes compared with others. It exhibits the best photocatalytic behavior among all samples in RhB degradation.

Keywords: Microwave solvothermal process, nanoplates, solar energy, visible-light photocatalysis.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W.Y. Li, H.T. Lin, J.H. Yang, C. Shih, S.W. Chen

Abstract:

Fuel rod analysis program transient (FRAPTRAN)  code was used to study the fuel rod performance during a postulated  large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) in Maanshan nuclear  power plant (NPP). Previous transient results from thermal hydraulic  code, TRACE, with the same LBLOCA scenario, were used as input  boundary conditions for FRAPTRAN. The simulation results showed  that the peak cladding temperatures and the fuel centerline  temperatures were all below the 10CFR50.46 LOCA criteria. In  addition, the maximum hoop stress was 18 MPa and the oxide  thickness was 0.003mm for the present simulation cases, which are all  within the safety operation ranges. The present study confirms that this  analysis method, the FRAPTRAN code combined with TRACE, is an  appropriate approach to predict the fuel integrity under LBLOCA with  operational ECCS.

 

Keywords: —FRAPTRAN, TRACE, LOCA, PWR.

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Authors: Tutku Eker Iscioglu

Abstract:

Increasing attention has been given in academia to the concept of corporate social responsibility. Also, the number of companies that undertake social responsibility initiatives has been boosting day by day since behaving in a socially responsible manner brings a lot to the companies. Literature provides various benefits of social responsibility and under which situations these benefits could be realized. However, most of these studies focus on one aspect of the consequences of behaving in a socially responsible manner and there is no study that unifies the conditions that a company should fulfill to make customers prefer its brand. This study aims to fill this gap. More specifically, the purpose of this study is to identify the conditions that a socially responsible company should fulfill in order to attract customers. To this end, a scale is developed and its reliability and validity is assessed through the method of Multitrait- Multimethod Matrix.

Keywords: Consumers, Corporate Social Responsibility, Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix, Scale Development.

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Authors: Nobuhiko Hishinuma, Jun Igari, Rentaro Yoshioka

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When programming in languages such as C, Java, etc., it is difficult to reconstruct the programmer's ideas only from the program code. This occurs mainly because, much of the programmer's ideas behind the implementation are not recorded in the code during implementation. For example, physical aspects of computation such as spatial structures, activities, and meaning of variables are not required as instructions to the computer and are often excluded. This makes the future reconstruction of the original ideas difficult. AIDA, which is a multimedia programming language based on the cyberFilm model, can solve these problems allowing to describe ideas behind programs using advanced annotation methods as a natural extension to programming. In this paper, a development environment that implements the AIDA language is presented with a focus on the annotation methods. In particular, an actual scientific numerical computation code is created and the effects of the annotation methods are analyzed.

Keywords: cyberFilm, development environment, knowledge engineering, multimedia programming language

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Authors: S. Deelers, S. Auwatanamongkol

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an algorithm to compute initial cluster centers for K-means clustering. Data in a cell is partitioned using a cutting plane that divides cell in two smaller cells. The plane is perpendicular to the data axis with the highest variance and is designed to reduce the sum squared errors of the two cells as much as possible, while at the same time keep the two cells far apart as possible. Cells are partitioned one at a time until the number of cells equals to the predefined number of clusters, K. The centers of the K cells become the initial cluster centers for K-means. The experimental results suggest that the proposed algorithm is effective, converge to better clustering results than those of the random initialization method. The research also indicated the proposed algorithm would greatly improve the likelihood of every cluster containing some data in it.

Keywords: Clustering algorithm, K-means algorithm, Datapartitioning, Initial cluster centers.

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Authors: Oke Oktavianty, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Junji Kaneko, Ken Kaminishi

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Modelica has many advantages and it is very useful in modeling and simulation especially for the multi-domain with a complex technical system. However, the big obstacle for a beginner is to understand the basic concept and to build a new system model for a real system. In order to understand how to solve the simple circuit model by hand translation and to get a better understanding of how modelica works, we provide a detailed explanation about solver ordering system in horizontal and vertical sorting and make some proposals for improvement. In this study, some difficulties in using modelica software with the original concept and the comparison with Finite Element Method (FEM) approach is discussed. We also present our textual modeling approach using FEM concept for acausal and causal model construction. Furthermore, simulation results are provided that demonstrate the comparison between using textual modeling with original coding in modelica and FEM concept.

Keywords: FEM, acausal model, modelica, horizontal and vertical sorting.

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Authors: S. Kassou, R. El Mrabet, A. Belaaraj, P. Guionneau, N. Hadi, T. Lamcharfi

Abstract:

The organic–inorganic hybrid perovskite-like [C₆H₅C₂H₄NH₃]₂ZnCl₄ (PEA-ZnCl₄) was synthesized by saturated solutions method. X-ray powder diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, UV-visible transmittance, and capacitance meter measurements have been used to characterize the structure, the functional groups, the optical parameters, and the dielectric constants of the material. The material has a layered structure. The optical transmittance (T %) was recorded and applied to deduce the absorption coefficient (α) and optical band gap (Eg). The hybrid shows an insulator character with a direct band gap about 4.46 eV, and presents high dielectric constants up to a frequency of about 10⁵ Hz, which suggests a ferroelectric behavior. The reported optical and dielectric properties can help to understand the fundamental properties of perovskite materials and also to be used for optimizing or designing new devices.

Keywords: Dielectric constants, optical band gap (Eg), optical parameters, Raman spectroscopy, self-assembly organic inorganic hybrid.

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Authors: Dalanya Asaad Mohammed, Dara Abdul Razaq

Abstract:

A total of twenty tensile biopsies were collected from children undergoing tonsillectomy from teaching hospital ENT department and Kurdistan private hospital in sulaimani city. All biopsies were homogenized and cultured; the obtained bacterial isolates were purified and identified by biochemical tests and VITEK 2 compact system. Among the twenty studied samples, only one Pseudomonas putida with probability of 99% was isolated. Antimicrobial susceptibility was carried out by disk diffusion method, Pseudomonas putida showed resistance to all antibiotics used except vancomycin. The isolate further subjected to PCR and DNA sequence analysis of blaVIM gene using different set of primers for different regions of VIM gene. The results were found to be PCR positive for the blaVIM gene. To determine the sequence of blaVIM gene, DNA sequencing performed. Sequence alignment of blaVIM gene with previously recorded blaVIM gene in NCBI- database showed that P. putida isolate have different blaVIM gene.

Keywords: Clinical isolates, Putida, Sulaimani, Vim gene.

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Authors: Jindong Gu, Matthias Schubert, Volker Tresp

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In many outlier detection tasks, only training data belonging to one class, i.e., the positive class, is available. The task is then to predict a new data point as belonging either to the positive class or to the negative class, in which case the data point is considered an outlier. For this task, we propose a novel corrupted Generative Adversarial Network (CorGAN). In the adversarial process of training CorGAN, the Generator generates outlier samples for the negative class, and the Discriminator is trained to distinguish the positive training data from the generated negative data. The proposed framework is evaluated using an image dataset and a real-world network intrusion dataset. Our outlier-detection method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both tasks.

Keywords: Outlier detection, generative adversary networks, semi-supervised learning.

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Authors: V. K. Jagadeesh, K. V. Naveen, P. Muthuchidambaranathan

Abstract:

Recently, there is a lot of interest in the field of under water optical wireless communication for short range because of its high bandwidth. But in most of the previous works line of sight propagation or single scattering of photons only considered. In practical case this is not applicable because of beam blockage in underwater and multiple scattering also occurred during the photons propagation through water. In this paper we consider a non-line of sight underwater wireless optical communication system with multiple scattering and examine the performance of the system using monte carlo simulation. The distribution scattering angle of photons are modeled by Henyey-Greenstein method. The average bit error rate is calculated using on-off keying modulation for different water types.

Keywords: Non line of sight under Water optical wireless communication, Henyey-Greenstein model, Multiple scattering, Monte-Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Widodo Budiharto, Michael Yoseph Ricky, Ro'fah Nur Rachmawati

Abstract:

The rapid development of the BlackBerry games industry and its development goals were not just for entertainment, but also used for educational of students interactively. Unfortunately the development of adaptive educational games on BlackBerry in Indonesian language that interesting and entertaining for learning process is very limited. This paper shows the research of development of novel adaptive educational games for students who can adjust the difficulty level of games based on the ability of the user, so that it can motivate students to continue to play these games. We propose a method where these games can adjust the level of difficulty, based on the assessment of the results of previous problems using neural networks with three inputs in the form of percentage correct, the speed of answer and interest mode of games (animation / lessons) and 1 output. The experimental results are presented and show the adaptive games are running well on mobile devices based on BlackBerry platform

Keywords: Adaptive games, neural networks, mobile games, BlackBerry

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Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Yi-Lin Shieh

Abstract:

The paper deals with the minimax design of two-channel linear-phase (LP) quadrature mirror filter (QMF) banks using infinite impulse response (IIR) digital all-pass filters (DAFs). Based on the theory of two-channel QMF banks using two IIR DAFs, the design problem is appropriately formulated to result in an appropriate Chebyshev approximation for the desired group delay responses of the IIR DAFs and the magnitude response of the low-pass analysis filter. Through a frequency sampling and iterative approximation method, the design problem can be solved by utilizing a weighted least squares approach. The resulting two-channel QMF banks can possess approximately LP response without magnitude distortion. Simulation results are presented for illustration and comparison.

Keywords: Chebyshev approximation, Digital All-Pass Filter, Quadrature Mirror Filter, Weighted Least Squares.

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Authors: Elham Zamiri

Abstract:

In this research, we have focused on numeral simulation of a fuel rod in order to examine distribution of heat temperature in components of fuel rod by Fluent software by providing steady state, single phase fluid flow, frequency heat flux in a fuel rod in nuclear reactor to numeral simulation. Results of examining different layers of a fuel rod consist of fuel layer, gap, pod, and fluid cooling flow, also examining thermal properties and fluids such as heat transition rate and pressure drop. The obtained results through analytical method and results of other sources have been compared and have appropriate correspondence. Results show that using heavy water as cooling fluid along with few layers of gas and pod have the ability of reducing the temperature from above 300 ^◦C to 70 ^◦C. This investigation is developable for any geometry and material used in the nuclear reactor.

Keywords: Nuclear fuel fission, numberal simulation, fuel rod, reactor, fluent software.

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Authors: Ying Zhao

Abstract:

Keystroke authentication is a new access control system to identify legitimate users via their typing behavior. In this paper, machine learning techniques are adapted for keystroke authentication. Seven learning methods are used to build models to differentiate user keystroke patterns. The selected classification methods are Decision Tree, Naive Bayesian, Instance Based Learning, Decision Table, One Rule, Random Tree and K-star. Among these methods, three of them are studied in more details. The results show that machine learning is a feasible alternative for keystroke authentication. Compared to the conventional Nearest Neighbour method in the recent research, learning methods especially Decision Tree can be more accurate. In addition, the experiment results reveal that 3-Grams is more accurate than 2-Grams and 4-Grams for feature extraction. Also, combination of attributes tend to result higher accuracy.

Keywords: Keystroke Authentication, Pattern recognition, MachineLearning, Instance-based Learning, Bayesian, Decision Tree.

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Authors: Elkington Sibusiso Mnguni

Abstract:

Although South Africa has made good progress in providing basic water and sanitation services to its citizens, there is still a large section of the population that has no access to these services. This paper reviews the performance of the government’s municipal infrastructure grant programme in providing basic water and sanitation services which are part of the constitutional requirements to the citizens. The method used to gather data and information was a desk top study which sought to review the progress made in rolling out the programme. The successes and challenges were highlighted and possible solutions were identified that can accelerate the elimination of the remaining backlogs and improve the level of service to the citizens. Currently, approximately 6.5 million citizens are without access to basic water services and approximately 10 million are without access to basic sanitation services.

Keywords: Grant, municipal infrastructure, sanitation, services, water.

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Authors: Wee Leong Son, Hasmayadi Abdul Majid, Rohana Musa

Abstract:

This paper study the segmented split capacitor Digital-to-Analog Converter (DAC) implemented in a differentialtype 12-bit Successive Approximation Analog-to-Digital Converter (SA-ADC). The series capacitance split array method employed as it reduced the total area of the capacitors required for high resolution DACs. A 12-bit regular binary array structure requires 2049 unit capacitors (Cs) while the split array needs 127 unit Cs. These results in the reduction of the total capacitance and power consumption of the series split array architectures as to regular binary-weighted structures. The paper will show the 12-bit DAC series split capacitor with 4-bit thermometer coded DAC architectures as well as the simulation and measured results.

Keywords: Successive Approximation Register Analog-to- Digital Converter, SAR ADC, Low voltage ADC.

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Authors: R. Haoui

Abstract:

Hypersonic flows around spatial vehicles during their reentry phase in planetary atmospheres are characterized by intense aerothermodynamics phenomena. The aim of this work is to analyze high temperature flows around an axisymmetric blunt body taking into account chemical and vibrational non-equilibrium for air mixture species and the no slip condition at the wall. For this purpose, the Navier-Stokes equations system is resolved by the finite volume methodology to determine the flow parameters around the axisymmetric blunt body especially at the stagnation point and in the boundary layer along the wall of the blunt body. The code allows the capture of shock wave before a blunt body placed in hypersonic free stream. The numerical technique uses the Flux Vector Splitting method of Van Leer. CFL coefficient and mesh size level are selected to ensure the numerical convergence.

Keywords: Hypersonic flow, viscous flow, chemical kinetic, dissociation, finite volumes, frozen and non-equilibrium flow.

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Authors: Rosemarie Velik, Dietmar Bruckner

Abstract:

Today, building automation is advancing from simple monitoring and control tasks of lightning and heating towards more and more complex applications that require a dynamic perception and interpretation of different scenes occurring in a building. Current approaches cannot handle these newly upcoming demands. In this article, a bionically inspired approach for multimodal, dynamic scene perception and interpretation is presented, which is based on neuroscientific and neuro-psychological research findings about the perceptual system of the human brain. This approach bases on data from diverse sensory modalities being processed in a so-called neuro-symbolic network. With its parallel structure and with its basic elements being information processing and storing units at the same time, a very efficient method for scene perception is provided overcoming the problems and bottlenecks of classical dynamic scene interpretation systems.

Keywords: building automation, biomimetrics, dynamic scene interpretation, human-like perception, neuro-symbolic networks.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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