Search results for: failure probability

Authors: Ioannis Neokosmidis, Nikos Gkekas, Thomas Kamalakis, Thomas Sphicopoulos

Abstract:

In high powered dense wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) systems with low chromatic dispersion, four-wave mixing (FWM) can prove to be a major source of noise. The MultiCanonical Monte Carlo Method (MCMC) and the Split Step Fourier Method (SSFM) are combined to accurately evaluate the probability density function of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM. The combination of the two methods leads to more accurate results, and offers the possibility of adding other optical noises such as the Amplified Spontaneous Emission (ASE) noise.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, Nonlinear optics, optical crosstalk, Wavelength-division Multiplexing (WDM).

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Authors: Qimin Yang

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In this paper, 3X3 routing nodes are proposed to provide speedup and parallel processing capability in Data Vortex network architectures. The new design not only significantly improves network throughput and latency, but also eliminates the need for distributive traffic control mechanism originally embedded among nodes and the need for nodal buffering. The cost effectiveness is studied by a comparison study with the previously proposed 2- input buffered networks, and considerable performance enhancement can be achieved with similar or lower cost of hardware. Unlike previous implementation, the network leaves small probability of contention, therefore, the packet drop rate must be kept low for such implementation to be feasible and attractive, and it can be achieved with proper choice of operation conditions.

Keywords: Data Vortex, Packet Switch, Interconnection network, deflection, Network-on-chip

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Authors: M. Ntšolo, D. Kalumba, N. Lefu, G. Letlatsa

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Rock mass damage due to shear tectonic activity has been investigated largely in geoscience where fluid transport is of major interest. However, little has been studied on the effect of shear zones on rock mass behavior and its impact on stability of rock slopes. At Letšeng Diamonds open pit mine in Lesotho, the shear zone composed of sheared kimberlite material, calcite and altered basalt is forming part of the haul ramp into the main pit cut 3. The alarming rate at which the shear zone is deteriorating has triggered concerns about both local and global stability of pit the walls. This study presents the numerical modelling of the open pit slope affected by shear zone at Letšeng Diamond Mine (LDM). Analysis of the slope involved development of the slope model by using a two-dimensional finite element code RS2. Interfaces between shear zone and host rock were represented by special joint elements incorporated in the finite element code. The analysis of structural geological mapping data provided a good platform to understand the joint network. Major joints including shear zone were incorporated into the model for simulation. This approach proved successful by demonstrating that continuum modelling can be used to evaluate evolution of stresses, strain, plastic yielding and failure mechanisms that are consistent with field observations. Structural control due to geological shear zone structure proved to be important in its location, size and orientation. Furthermore, the model analyzed slope deformation and sliding possibility along shear zone interfaces. This type of approach can predict shear zone deformation and failure mechanism, hence mitigation strategies can be deployed for safety of human lives and property within mine pits.

Keywords: Numerical modeling, open pit mine, shear zone, slope stability.

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Authors: Khachatur V. Nerkararyan, Sergey I. Bozhevolnyi

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We investigate relaxation dynamics of a quantum dipole emitter (QDE), e.g., a molecule or quantum dot, located near a metal nanoparticle (MNP) exhibiting a dipolar localized surface plasmon (LSP) resonance at the frequency of the QDE radiative transition. It is shown that under the condition of the QDE-MNP characteristic relaxation time being much shorter than that of the QDE in free-space but much longer than the LSP lifetime. It is also shown that energy dissipation in the QDE-MNP system is relatively weak with the probability of the photon emission being about 0.75, a number which, rather surprisingly, does not explicitly depend on the metal absorption characteristics. The degree of entanglement measured by the concurrency takes the maximum value, while the distances between the QDEs and metal ball approximately are equal.

Keywords: Metal nanoparticle, Localized surface plasmon, Quantum dipole emitter, Relaxation dynamics.

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Authors: Robert E. Hursig, Jane X. Zhang

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A robust still image face localization algorithm capable of operating in an unconstrained visual environment is proposed. First, construction of a robust skin classifier within a shifted HSV color space is described. Then various filtering operations are performed to better isolate face candidates and mitigate the effect of substantial non-skin regions. Finally, a novel Bhattacharyya-based face detection algorithm is used to compare candidate regions of interest with a unique illumination-dependent face model probability distribution function approximation. Experimental results show a 90% face detection success rate despite the demands of the visually noisy environment.

Keywords: Audio-visual speech recognition, Bhattacharyyacoefficient, face detection,

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Authors: M. N. Nwodo, Y. P. Cheng, N. H. Minh

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In the process of recovering oil in weak sandstone formations, the strength of sandstones around the wellbore is weakened due to the increase of effective stress/load from the completion activities around the cavity. The weakened and de-bonded sandstone may be eroded away by the produced fluid, which is termed sand production. It is one of the major trending subjects in the petroleum industry because of its significant negative impacts, as well as some observed positive impacts. For efficient sand management therefore, there has been need for a reliable study tool to understand the mechanism of sanding. One method of studying sand production is the use of the widely recognized Discrete Element Method (DEM), Particle Flow Code (PFC^3D) which represents sands as granular individual elements bonded together at contact points. However, there is limited knowledge of the particle-scale behavior of the weak sandstone, and the parameters that affect sanding. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of using PFC^3D and a simple Darcy flow in understanding the sand production behavior of a weak sandstone. An isotropic tri-axial test on a weak oil sandstone sample was first simulated at a confining stress of 1MPa to calibrate and validate the parallel bond models of PFC^3D using a 10m height and 10m diameter solid cylindrical model. The effect of the confining stress on the number of bonds failure was studied using this cylindrical model. With the calibrated data and sample material properties obtained from the tri-axial test, simulations without and with fluid flow were carried out to check on the effect of Darcy flow on bonds failure using the same model geometry. The fluid flow network comprised of every four particles connected with tetrahedral flow pipes with a central pore or flow domain. Parametric studies included the effects of confining stress, and fluid pressure; as well as validating flow rate – permeability relationship to verify Darcy’s fluid flow law. The effect of model size scaling on sanding was also investigated using 4m height, 2m diameter model. The parallel bond model successfully calibrated the sample’s strength of 4.4MPa, showing a sharp peak strength before strain-softening, similar to the behavior of real cemented sandstones. There seems to be an exponential increasing relationship for the bigger model, but a curvilinear shape for the smaller model. The presence of the Darcy flow induced tensile forces and increased the number of broken bonds. For the parametric studies, flow rate has a linear relationship with permeability at constant pressure head. The higher the fluid flow pressure, the higher the number of broken bonds/sanding. The DEM PFC^3D is a promising tool to studying the micromechanical behavior of cemented sandstones.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method, fluid flow, parametric study, sand production/bonds failure.

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Authors: R. Sammoura

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In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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Authors: Nelson F.F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira

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The objective of this work is to explicit knowledge on the interactions between the chlorophyll-a and nine meroplankton larvae of epibenthonic fauna. The studied case is the Arraial do Cabo upwelling system, Southeastern of Brazil, which provides different environmental conditions. To assess this information a network approach based in probability estimative was used. Comparisons among the generated graphs are made in the light of different water masses, application of Shannon biodiversity index, and the closeness and betweenness centralities measurements. Our results show the main pattern among different water masses and how the core organisms belonging to the network skeleton are correlated to the main environmental variable. We conclude that the approach of complex networks is a promising tool for environmental diagnostic.

Keywords: Coastal upwelling, Ecological networks, Plankton - interactions, Environmental analysis.

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Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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Authors: H. El-Madbouly

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For future Broad band ISDN, Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) is designed not only to support a wide range of traffic classes with diverse flow characteristics, but also to guarantee the different quality of service QOS requirements. The QOS may be measured in terms of cell loss probability and maximum cell delay. In this paper, ATM networks in which the virtual path (VP) concept is implemented are considered. By applying the Markov Deterministic process method, an efficient algorithm to compute the minimum capacity required to satisfy the QOS requirements when multiple classes of on-off are multiplexed on to a single VP. Using the result, we then proposed a simple algorithm to determine different combinations of VP to achieve the optimum of the total capacity required for satisfying the individual QOS requirements (loss- delay).

Keywords: Bandwidth allocation, Quality of services, ATMNetwork, virtual path.

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Authors: Adibah Shuib, Zati Aqmar Zaharudin

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Our study is concerned with the development of an Emergency Medical Services (EMS) ambulance location and allocation model called the Time-based Ambulance Zoning Optimization Model (TAZ_OPT). This paper presents the framework of the study. The model is formulated using the goal programming (GP), where the goals are to determine the satellite locations of ambulances and the number of ambulances to be allocated at these locations. The model aims at maximizing the expected demand coverage based on probability of reaching the emergency location within targetted time, and minimizing the ambulance busyness likelihood value. Among the benefits of the model is the increased accessibility and availability of ambulances, thus, enhanced quality of the EMS ambulance services.

Keywords: Optimization, Ambulance Location, Location facilities.

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Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

This paper proposes frequency offset (FO) estimation schemes robust to the non-Gaussian noise for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. A maximum-likelihood (ML) scheme and a low-complexity estimation scheme are proposed by applying the probability density function of the cyclic prefix of OFDM symbols to the ML criterion. From simulation results, it is confirmed that the proposed schemes offer a significant FO estimation performance improvement over the conventional estimation scheme in non-Gaussian noise environments.

Keywords: Frequency offset, cyclic prefix, maximum-likelihood, non-Gaussian noise, OFDM.

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Authors: Ahmet Denker

Abstract:

The trend in the world of Information Technology (IT) is getting increasingly large and difficult projects rather than smaller and easier. However, the data on large-scale IT project success rates provide cause for concern. This paper seeks to answer why large-scale IT projects are different from and more difficult than other typical engineering projects. Drawing on the industrial experience, a compilation of the conditions that influence failure is presented. With a view to improve success rates solutions are suggested.

Keywords: Software engineering, software economics, project management, large-scale projects.

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Authors: Norwati Mustapha, Manijeh Jalali, Abolghasem Bozorgniya, Mehrdad Jalali

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Web usage mining algorithms have been widely utilized for modeling user web navigation behavior. In this study we advance a model for mining of user-s navigation pattern. The model makes user model based on expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm.An EM algorithm is used in statistics for finding maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in probabilistic models, where the model depends on unobserved latent variables. The experimental results represent that by decreasing the number of clusters, the log likelihood converges toward lower values and probability of the largest cluster will be decreased while the number of the clusters increases in each treatment.

Keywords: Web Usage Mining, Expectation maximization, navigation pattern mining.

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Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

Abstract:

The performance of hybrid amplify and forward - decode and forward (AF-DF) hybrid radio frequency/free space optical (RF/FSO) communication system, that adopts M-ary pulse position modulation (MPPM) techniques, is analyzed. Both exact and approximate symbol-error rates (SERs) are derived. The random variations of the received optical irradiance, produced by the atmospheric turbulence, is modeled by the gamma-gamma (GG) statistical distribution. A closed-form expression for the probability density function (PDF) is derived for the whole above system is obtained. Thanks to the use of hybrid AF-DF hybrid RF/FSO configuration and MPPM, the effects of atmospheric turbulence is mitigated; hence the capacity of combating atmospheric turbulence and the transmissitted signal quality are improved.

Keywords: FSO, RF, hybrid, AF, DF, SER, SNR, GG channel.

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Authors: Tanveer Ahmed Bhuiyan, Samiul Hayder Choudhury, Asif Al - Rasheed, S.P. Majumder

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In this paper, the effect of atmospheric turbulence on bit error probability in free-space optical CDMA scheme with Sequence Inverse Keyed (SIK) optical correlator receiver is analyzed. Here Intensity Modulation scheme is considered for transmission. The turbulence induced fading is described by the newly introduced gamma-gamma pdf[1] as a tractable mathematical model for atmospheric turbulence. Results are evaluated with Gold and Kasami code & it is shown that Gold sequence can be used for more efficient transmission than Kasami sequence in an atmospheric turbulence channel.

Keywords: CDMA, gamma-gamma pdf, atmospheric turbulence, Kasami, Gold, SIK, BER, Power Penalty, FSO.

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Authors: Bee-Lin Tang, Ismail Bakar, Chee - Ming Chan

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Limited infrastructure development on peats and organic soils is a serious geotechnical issues common to many countries of the world especially Malaysia which distributed 1.5 mill ha of those problematic soil. These soils have high water content and organic content which exhibit different mechanical properties and may also change chemically and biologically with time. Constructing structures on peaty ground involves the risk of ground failure and extreme settlement. Nowdays, much efforts need to be done in making peatlands usable for construction due to increased landuse. Deep mixing method employing cement as binders, is generally used as measure again peaty/ organic ground failure problem. Where the technique is widely adopted because it can improved ground considerably in a short period of time. An understanding of geotechnical properties as shear strength, stiffness and compressibility behavior of these soils was requires before continues construction on it. Therefore, 1- 1.5 meter peat soil sample from states of Johor and an organic soil from Melaka, Malaysia were investigated. Cement were added to the soil in the pre-mixing stage with water cement ratio at range 3.5,7,14,140 for peats and 5,10,30 for organic soils, essentially to modify the original soil textures and properties. The mixtures which in slurry form will pour to polyvinyl chloride (pvc) tube and cured at room temperature 250C for 7,14 and 28 days. Laboratory experiments were conducted including unconfined compressive strength and bender element , to monitor the improved strength and stiffness of the 'stabilised mixed soils'. In between, scanning electron miscroscopic (SEM) were observations to investigate changes in microstructures of stabilised soils and to evaluated hardening effect of a peat and organic soils stabilised cement. This preliminary effort indicated that pre-mixing peat and organic soils contributes in gaining soil strength while help the engineers to establish a new method for those problematic ground improvement in further practical and long term applications.

Keywords: peat soils, organic soils, cement stabilisation, strength, stiffness.

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Authors: Jean-Michel Sahut

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Despite the strong and consistent increase in the use of electronic payment methods worldwide, the diffusion of electronic wallets is still far from widespread. Analysis of the failure of electronic wallet uptake has either focused on technical issues or chosen to analyse a specific scheme. This article proposes a joint approach to analysing key factors affecting the adoption of e-wallets by using the ‘Technology Acceptance Model” [1] which we have expanded to take into account the cost of using e-wallets. We use this model to analyse Monéo, the only French electronic wallet still in operation.

Keywords: Electronic wallet, adoption, ICT, TAM, Monéo, electronic payment.

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Authors: Luthful A. Kawsar, Noraida A. Ghani, Anton A. Kamil, Adli Mustafa

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In this paper, we use an M/G/C/C state dependent queuing model within a complex network topology to determine the different performance measures for pedestrian traffic flow. The occupants in this network topology need to go through some source corridors, from which they can choose their suitable exiting corridors. The performance measures were calculated using arrival rates that maximize the throughputs of source corridors. In order to increase the throughput of the network, the result indicates that the flow direction of pedestrian through the corridors has to be restricted and the arrival rates to the source corridor need to be controlled.

Keywords: Arrival rate, Multiple arrival sources, Probability of blocking, State dependent queuing networks, Throughput.

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Authors: Hekmatpanah M., Fadavinia, A.

Abstract:

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is an effective technique for preventing potential problems and actions needed to error cause removal. On the other hand, the oil producing companies paly a critical role in the oil industry of Iran as a developing country out of which, Sepahan Oil Co. has a considerable contribution. The aim of this research is to show how FMEA could be applied and improve the quality of products at Sepahan Oil Co. For this purpose, the four liter production line of the company has been selected for investigation. The findings imply that the application of FMEA has reduced the scraps from 50000 ppm to 5000 ppm and has resulted in a 0.92 percent decrease of the oil waste.

Keywords: FMEA, Iran, Sepahan Oil Co., Canning, Waste, Scrap

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Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

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The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N  is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this  attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion  beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low  energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb  barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer  reactions could provide us with useful information about the  attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The  experimental data were analyzed using two approaches;  Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double  Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and  the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

 

Keywords: Deuteron Transfer, Elastic Scattering, Optical Model, Double Folding, Density Distribution.

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Authors: A. Ben Yaghlane, M. N. Azaiez, M. Mrad

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We investigate the large scale of networks in the context of network survivability under attack. We use appropriate techniques to evaluate and the attacker-based- and the defenderbased- network survivability. The attacker is unaware of the operated links by the defender. Each attacked link has some pre-specified probability to be disconnected. The defender choice is so that to maximize the chance of successfully sending the flow to the destination node. The attacker however will select the cut-set with the highest chance to be disabled in order to partition the network. Moreover, we extend the problem to the case of selecting the best p paths to operate by the defender and the best k cut-sets to target by the attacker, for arbitrary integers p,k>1. We investigate some variations of the problem and suggest polynomial-time solutions.

Keywords: Defense/attack strategies, large scale, networks, partitioning a network.

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Authors: Oscar E. Cariceo

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In Chile, there is a lack of evidence about the impact of polyvictimization on the emergence of suicidal thoughts among children and young people. Thus, this study aims to explore the association between the episodes of polyvictimization suffered by Chilean children and young people and the manifestation of signs related to suicidal tendencies. To achieve this purpose, secondary data from the First Polyvictimization Survey on Children and Adolescents of 2017 were analyzed, and a binomial logistic regression model was applied to establish the probability that young people are experiencing suicidal ideation episodes. The main findings show that women between the ages of 13 and 15 years, who are in seventh grade and second in subsidized schools, are more likely to express suicidal ideas, which increases if they have suffered different types of victimization, particularly physical violence, psychological aggression, and sexual abuse.

Keywords: Chile, polyvictimization, suicidal ideation, youth.

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

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Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: AI, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10.

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Authors: Young Geun Kim, Tae Woo Lee, Changmin Yeo, Jung min Yoo, Yeo Jin Kang, Tack-Joong Kim, Byungjo Jung, Ji Hun Cha, Chan Hoi Hur, Dong-Sup Kim, Ki Jung Park, Han Sung Kim

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The intention of this lessons is to assess the probability of optical coherence tomography (OCT) for biometric recognition. The OCT is the foundation on an optical signal acquisition and processing method and has the micrometer-resolution. In this study, we used the porcine skin for verifying the abovementioned means. The porcine tissue was sound acknowledged for structural and immunohistochemical similarity with human skin, so it could be suitable for pre-clinical trial as investigational specimen. For this reason, it was tattooed by the tattoo machine with the tattoo-pigment. We detected the pattern of the tattooed skin by the OCT according to needle speed. The result was consistent with the histology images. This result showed that the OCT was effective to examine the tattooed skin section noninvasively. It might be available to identify morphological changes inside the skin.

Keywords: mechanical skin damage, optical coherence tomography, tattooed skin

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Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks and random premium income. We assume that the premium income process is a Poisson Process, and the claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang(n) processes, respectively. Both of the Gerber- Shiu functions with zero initial surplus and the probability generating functions (p.g.f.) of the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained.

Keywords: Poisson process, generalized Erlang risk process, Gerber-Shiu function, generating function, generalized Lundberg equation.

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Authors: Peichen Zhao

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In this paper, we extend the compound binomial model to the case where the premium income process, based on a binomial process, is no longer a linear function. First, a mathematically recursive formula is derived for non ruin probability, and then, we examine the expected discounted penalty function, satisfy a defect renewal equation. Third, the asymptotic estimate for the expected discounted penalty function is then given. Finally, we give two examples of ruin quantities to illustrate applications of the recursive formula and the asymptotic estimate for penalty function.

Keywords: Discounted penalty function, compound binomial process, recursive formula, discrete renewal equation, asymptotic estimate.

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Authors: F. Pourhasanzade, S. H. Sabzpoushan

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Computer modeling has played a unique role in understanding electrocardiography. Modeling and simulating cardiac action potential propagation is suitable for studying normal and pathological cardiac activation. This paper presents a 2-D Cellular Automata model for simulating action potential propagation in cardiac tissue. We demonstrate a novel algorithm in order to use minimum neighbors. This algorithm uses the summation of the excitability attributes of excited neighboring cells. We try to eliminate flat edges in the result patterns by inserting probability to the model. We also preserve the real shape of action potential by using linear curve fitting of one well known electrophysiological model.

Keywords: Cellular Automata, Action Potential Propagation, cardiac tissue, Isotropic Pattern, accurate shape of cardiac actionpotential.

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Authors: Jacobus A. A. Lazenby

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As a result of the ever-changing environment and the demands of rganisations- customers, it is important to recognise the importance of some important managerial challenges. It is the sincere belief that failure to meet these challenges, will ultimately contribute to inevitable problems for organisations. This recognition requires from managers and by implication organisations to be engaged in ethical behaviour, identity awareness and learning organisational behaviour. All these aspects actually reflect on the importance of intellectual capital as the competitive weapons for organisations in the future.

Keywords: Ethical behaviour, identity awareness, learningbehaviour.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

Abstract:

This work presents a fusion of Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) and Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator as a speech enhancement tool for acoustical background noise reduction. The probability density function (pdf) of the speech spectral amplitude is approximated by a Generalized Laplacian Distribution (GLD). Compared to earlier estimators the proposed method estimates the underlying statistical model more accurately by appropriately choosing the model parameters of GLD. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in Segmental Signal-to-Noise Ratio (S-SNR) and lower Log-Spectral Distortion (LSD) in two different noisy environments compared to other estimators.

Keywords: Speech Enhancement, Generalized Laplacian Distribution, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian MAP Marginal Estimator.

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