Search results for: disaster risk reduction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2609

Search results for: disaster risk reduction

2099 Modelling Conditional Volatility of Saving Rate by a Time-Varying Parameter Model

Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

Abstract:

The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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2098 Environmental Sanitation and Health Risks in Tropical Urban Settings: Case Study of Household Refuse and Diarrhea in Yaoundé-Cameroon

Authors: H. B. Nguendo Yongsi, Thora M. Herrmann, A. Lutumba Ntetu, Rémy Sietchiping, Christopher Bryant

Abstract:

Health problems linked to urban growth are current major concerns of developing countries. In 2002 and 2005, an interdisciplinary program “Populations et Espaces ├á Risques SANitaires" (PERSAN) was set up under the patronage of the Development and Research Institute. Centered on health in Cameroon-s urban environment, the program mainly sought to (i) identify diarrhoea risk factors in Yaoundé, (ii) to measure their prevalence and apprehend their spatial distribution. The crosssectional epidemiological study that was carried out revealed a diarrheic prevalence of 14.4% (437 cases of diarrhoea on the 3,034 children examined). Also, among risk factors studied, household refuse management methods used by city dwellers were statistically associated to these diarrhoeas. Moreover, it happened that levels of diarrhoeal attacks varied consistently from one neighbourhood to another because of the discrepancy urbanization process of the Yaoundé metropolis.

Keywords: Diarrhea, health risk, household refuses handling, sanitation, Yaoundé.

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2097 A New Approach to Face Recognition Using Dual Dimension Reduction

Authors: M. Almas Anjum, M. Younus Javed, A. Basit

Abstract:

In this paper a new approach to face recognition is presented that achieves double dimension reduction, making the system computationally efficient with better recognition results and out perform common DCT technique of face recognition. In pattern recognition techniques, discriminative information of image increases with increase in resolution to a certain extent, consequently face recognition results change with change in face image resolution and provide optimal results when arriving at a certain resolution level. In the proposed model of face recognition, initially image decimation algorithm is applied on face image for dimension reduction to a certain resolution level which provides best recognition results. Due to increased computational speed and feature extraction potential of Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT), it is applied on face image. A subset of coefficients of DCT from low to mid frequencies that represent the face adequately and provides best recognition results is retained. A tradeoff between decimation factor, number of DCT coefficients retained and recognition rate with minimum computation is obtained. Preprocessing of the image is carried out to increase its robustness against variations in poses and illumination level. This new model has been tested on different databases which include ORL , Yale and EME color database.

Keywords: Biometrics, DCT, Face Recognition, Illumination, Computation, Feature extraction.

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2096 Gypsum Composites with CDW as Raw Material

Authors: R. Santos Jiménez, A. San-Antonio-González, M. Del Río Merino, M. González Cortina, C. Viñas Arrebola

Abstract:

In this study, the feasibility of incorporating ceramic waste from bricks (perforated brick and double hollow brick) and extruded polystyrene (XPS) waste, is analysed. Results show that it is possible to incorporate up to 25% of ceramic waste and 4% of XPS waste over the weight of gypsum in a gypsum matrix. Furthermore, with the addition of ceramic waste an 8% of surface hardness increase and a 25% of capillary water absorption reduction can be obtained. On the other hand, with the addition of XPS, a 26% reduction of density and a 37% improvement of thermal conductivity can be obtained. The obtained results are favorable to use these materials in order to produce prefabricated gypsum and also as material for interior cladding walls.

Keywords: CDW, waste materials, ceramic waste, XPS, construction materials, gypsum.

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2095 A Framework of Monte Carlo Simulation for Examining the Uncertainty-Investment Relationship

Authors: George Yungchih Wang

Abstract:

This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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2094 Identification of Risks Associated with Process Automation Systems

Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

Abstract:

A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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2093 An Hybrid Approach for Loss Reduction in Distribution Systems using Harmony Search Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

Individually Network reconfiguration or Capacitor control perform well in minimizing power loss and improving voltage profile of the distribution system. But for heavy reactive power loads network reconfiguration and for heavy active power loads capacitor placement can not effectively reduce power loss and enhance voltage profiles in the system. In this paper, an hybrid approach that combine network reconfiguration and capacitor placement using Harmony Search Algorithm (HSA) is proposed to minimize power loss reduction and improve voltage profile. The proposed approach is tested on standard IEEE 33 and 16 bus systems. Computational results show that the proposed hybrid approach can minimize losses more efficiently than Network reconfiguration or Capacitor control. The results of proposed method are also compared with results obtained by Simulated Annealing (SA). The proposed method has outperformed in terms of the quality of solution compared to SA.

Keywords: Capacitor Control, Network Reconfiguration, HarmonySearch Algorithm, Loss Reduction, Voltage Profile.

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2092 Comparison between Torsional Ultrasonic Assisted Drilling and Conventional Drilling of Bone: An in vitro Study

Authors: Nikoo Soleimani

Abstract:

Background: Reducing torque during bone drilling is one of the effective factors in reaching to an optimal drilling process. Methods: 15 bovine femurs were drilled in vitro with a drill bit with a diameter of 4 mm using two methods of torsional ultrasonic assisted drilling (T-UAD) and convent conventional drilling (CD) and the effects of changing the feed rate and rotational speed on the torque were compared in both methods. Results: There was no significant difference in the thrust force measured in both methods due to the direction of vibrations. Results showed that using T-UAD method for bone drilling at feed rates of 0.16, 0.24 and 0.32 mm/rev led for all rotational speeds to a decrease of at least 16.3% in torque compared to the CD method. Further, using T-UAD at rotational speeds of 355~1000 rpm with various feed rates resulted in a torque reduction of 16.3~50.5% compared to CD method. Conclusions: Reducing the feed rate and increasing the rotational speed, except for the rotational speed of 500 rpm and a feed rate of 0.32 mm/rev, resulted generally in torque reduction in both methods. However, T-UAD is a more effective and desirable option for bone drilling considering its significant torque reduction.

Keywords: Torsional ultrasonic assisted drilling, torque, bone drilling, rotational speed, feed rate.

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2091 Steel Dust as a Coating Agent for Iron Ore Pellets at Ironmaking

Authors: M. Bahgat, H. Hanafy, H. Al-Tassan

Abstract:

Cluster formation is an essential phenomenon during direct reduction processes at shaft furnaces. Decreasing the reducing temperature to avoid this problem can cause a significant drop in throughput. In order to prevent sticking of pellets, a coating material basically inactive under the reducing conditions prevailing in the shaft furnace, should be applied to cover the outer layer of the pellets. In the present work, steel dust is used as coating material for iron ore pellets to explore dust coating effectiveness and determines the best coating conditions. Steel dust coating is applied for iron ore pellets in various concentrations. Dust slurry concentrations of 5.0-30% were used to have a coated steel dust amount of 1.0-5.0 kg per ton iron ore. Coated pellets with various concentrations were reduced isothermally in weight loss technique with simulated gas mixture to the composition of reducing gases at shaft furnaces. The influences of various coating conditions on the reduction behavior and the morphology were studied. The optimum reduced samples were comparatively applied for sticking index measurement. It was found that the optimized steel dust coating condition that achieve higher reducibility with lower sticking index was 30% steel dust slurry concentration with 3.0 kg steel dust/ton ore.

Keywords: Ironmaking, coating, steel dust, reduction.

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2090 Analysis on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Potential by Deploying the Green Cars in Korean Road Transport Sector

Authors: Sungjun Hong, Yanghon Chung, Nyunbae Park, Sangyong Park

Abstract:

South Korea, as the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, announced that the national reduction target of greenhouse gas emissions was 30% based on BAU (Business As Usual) by 2020. And the reduction rate of the transport sector is 34.3% which is the highest figure among all sectors. This paper attempts to analyze the environmental effect on deploying the green cars in Korean road transport sector. In order to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the LEAP model is applied in this study.

Keywords: Green car, greenhouse gas, LEAP model, road transport sector.

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2089 A Study on the Least Squares Reduced Parameter Approximation of FIR Digital Filters

Authors: S. Seyedtabaii, E. Seyedtabaii

Abstract:

Rounding of coefficients is a common practice in hardware implementation of digital filters. Where some coefficients are very close to zero or one, as assumed in this paper, this rounding action also leads to some computation reduction. Furthermore, if the discarded coefficient is of high order, a reduced order filter is obtained, otherwise the order does not change but computation is reduced. In this paper, the Least Squares approximation to rounded (or discarded) coefficient FIR filter is investigated. The result also succinctly extended to general type of FIR filters.

Keywords: Digital filter, filter approximation, least squares, model order reduction.

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2088 Using PFA in Feature Analysis and Selection for H.264 Adaptation

Authors: Nora A. Naguib, Ahmed E. Hussein, Hesham A. Keshk, Mohamed I. El-Adawy

Abstract:

Classification of video sequences based on their contents is a vital process for adaptation techniques. It helps decide which adaptation technique best fits the resource reduction requested by the client. In this paper we used the principal feature analysis algorithm to select a reduced subset of video features. The main idea is to select only one feature from each class based on the similarities between the features within that class. Our results showed that using this feature reduction technique the source video features can be completely omitted from future classification of video sequences.

Keywords: Adaptation, feature selection, H.264, Principal Feature Analysis (PFA)

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2087 Modelling and Simulating CO2 Electro-Reduction to Formic Acid Using Microfluidic Electrolytic Cells: The Influence of Bi-Sn Catalyst and 1-Ethyl-3-Methyl Imidazolium Tetra-Fluoroborate Electrolyte on Cell Performance

Authors: Akan C. Offong, E. J. Anthony, Vasilije Manovic

Abstract:

A modified steady-state numerical model is developed for the electrochemical reduction of CO2 to formic acid. The numerical model achieves a CD (current density) (~60 mA/cm2), FE-faradaic efficiency (~98%) and conversion (~80%) for CO2 electro-reduction to formic acid in a microfluidic cell. The model integrates charge and species transport, mass conservation, and momentum with electrochemistry. Specifically, the influences of Bi-Sn based nanoparticle catalyst (on the cathode surface) at different mole fractions and 1-ethyl-3-methyl imidazolium tetra-fluoroborate ([EMIM][BF4]) electrolyte, on CD, FE and CO2 conversion to formic acid is studied. The reaction is carried out at a constant concentration of electrolyte (85% v/v., [EMIM][BF4]). Based on the mass transfer characteristics analysis (concentration contours), mole ratio 0.5:0.5 Bi-Sn catalyst displays the highest CO2 mole consumption in the cathode gas channel. After validating with experimental data (polarisation curves) from literature, extensive simulations reveal performance measure: CD, FE and CO2 conversion. Increasing the negative cathode potential increases the current densities for both formic acid and H2 formations. However, H2 formations are minimal as a result of insufficient hydrogen ions in the ionic liquid electrolyte. Moreover, the limited hydrogen ions have a negative effect on formic acid CD. As CO2 flow rate increases, CD, FE and CO2 conversion increases.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, electro-chemical reduction, microfluidics, ionic liquids, modelling.

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2086 Shariah Views on the Components of Profit Rate in Al-Murabahah Asset Financing in Malaysian Islamic Bank

Authors: M. Pisol B Mat Isa, Asmak Ab Rahman, Hezlina Bt M Hashim, Abd Mutalib B Embong

Abstract:

Al-Murabahah is an Islamic financing facility used in asset financing, the profit rate of the contract is determined by components which are also being used in the conventional banking. Such are cost of fund, overhead cost, risk premium cost and bank-s profit margin. At the same time, the profit rate determined by Islamic banking system also refers to Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) in London as a benchmark. This practice has risen arguments among Muslim scholars in term of its validity of the contract; whether the contract maintains the Shariah compliance or not. This paper aims to explore the view of Shariah towards the above components practiced by Islamic Banking in determining the profit rate of al-murabahah asset financing in Malaysia. This is a comparative research which applied the views of Muslim scholars from all major mazahibs in Islamic jurisprudence and examined the practices by Islamic banks in Malaysia for the above components. The study found that the shariah accepts all the components with conditions. The cost of fund is accepted as a portion of al-mudarabah-s profit, the overhead cost is accepted as a cost of product, risk premium cost consist of business risk and mitigation risk are accepted through the concept of alta-awun and bank-s profit margin is accepted as a right of bank after venturing in risky investment.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, al-murabahah and asset financing

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2085 Environmental Pollution and Health Risks of Residents Living Near Ewekoro Cement Factory, Ewekoro, Nigeria

Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

Abstract:

Generally the natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1km to the factory, within 1km to 5km and above 5km to the factory. Also questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that fall between less than 1km and 1km to 5km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce health risk problems.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, Ewekoro, GIS, Health risk, Satellite imagery.

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2084 Development of Prediction Tool for Sound Absorption and Sound Insulation for Sound Proof Properties

Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa, Takao Yamaguchi

Abstract:

High frequency automotive interior noise above 500 Hz considerably affects automotive passenger comfort. To reduce this noise, sound insulation material is often laminated on body panels or interior trim panels. For a more effective noise reduction, the sound reduction properties of this laminated structure need to be estimated. We have developed a new calculate tool that can roughly calculate the sound absorption and insulation properties of laminate structure and handy for designers. In this report, the outline of this tool and an analysis example applied to floor mat are introduced.

Keywords: Automobile, acoustics, porous material, Transfer Matrix Method.

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2083 A 16Kb 10T-SRAM with 4x Read-Power Reduction

Authors: Pardeep Singh, Sanjay Sharma, Parvinder S. Sandhu

Abstract:

This work aims to reduce the read power consumption as well as to enhance the stability of the SRAM cell during the read operation. A new 10-transisor cell is proposed with a new read scheme to minimize the power consumption within the memory core. It has separate read and write ports, thus cell read stability is significantly improved. A 16Kb SRAM macro operating at 1V supply voltage is demonstrated in 65 nm CMOS process. Its read power consumption is reduced to 24% of the conventional design. The new cell also has lower leakage current due to its special bit-line pre-charge scheme. As a result, it is suitable for low-power mobile applications where power supply is restricted by the battery.

Keywords: A 16Kb 10T-SRAM, 4x Read-Power Reduction

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2082 Assessing Storage of Stability and Mercury Reduction of Freeze-Dried Pseudomonas putida within Different Types of Lyoprotectant

Authors: A. A. M. Azoddein, Y. Nuratri, A. B. Bustary, F. A. M. Azli, S. C. Sayuti

Abstract:

Pseudomonas putida is a potential strain in biological treatment to remove mercury contained in the effluent of petrochemical industry due to its mercury reductase enzyme that able to reduce ionic mercury to elementary mercury. Freeze-dried P. putida allows easy, inexpensive shipping, handling and high stability of the product. This study was aimed to freeze dry P. putida cells with addition of lyoprotectant. Lyoprotectant was added into the cells suspension prior to freezing. Dried P. putida obtained was then mixed with synthetic mercury. Viability of recovery P. putida after freeze dry was significantly influenced by the type of lyoprotectant. Among the lyoprotectants, tween 80/ sucrose was found to be the best lyoprotectant. Sucrose able to recover more than 78% (6.2E+09 CFU/ml) of the original cells (7.90E+09CFU/ml) after freeze dry and able to retain 5.40E+05 viable cells after 4 weeks storage in 4oC without vacuum. Polyethylene glycol (PEG) pre-treated freeze dry cells and broth pre-treated freeze dry cells after freeze-dry recovered more than 64% (5.0 E+09CFU/ml) and >0.1% (5.60E+07CFU/ml). Freeze-dried P. putida cells in PEG and broth cannot survive after 4 weeks storage. Freeze dry also does not really change the pattern of growth P. putida but extension of lag time was found 1 hour after 3 weeks of storage. Additional time was required for freeze-dried P. putida cells to recover before introduce freeze-dried cells to more complicated condition such as mercury solution. The maximum mercury reduction of PEG pre-treated freeze-dried cells after freeze dry and after storage 3 weeks was 56.78% and 17.91%. The maximum of mercury reduction of tween 80/sucrose pre-treated freeze-dried cells after freeze dry and after storage 3 weeks were 26.35% and 25.03%. Freeze dried P. putida was found to have lower mercury reduction compare to the fresh P. putida that has been growth in agar. Result from this study may be beneficial and useful as initial reference before commercialize freeze-dried P. putida.

Keywords: Pseudomonas putida, freeze-dry, PEG, Tween80/Sucrose, mercury, cell viability.

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2081 RASPE – Risk Advisory Smart System for Pipeline Projects in Egypt

Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

Abstract:

A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. Paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: Expert System, Knowledge Management, Pipeline Projects, Risk Mismanagement.

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2080 The Key Challenges of the New Bank Regulations

Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) influences how financial institutions around the world, and especially European Union institutions, determine the amount of capital to reserve. However, as the recent global crisis has shown, the revision of Basel II is needed to reflect current trends, such as increased volatility and correlation, in the world financial markets. The overall objective of Basel II is to increase the safety and soundness of the international financial system. Basel II builds on three main pillars: Pillar I deals with the minimum capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk, Pillar II focuses on the supervisory review process and finally Pillar III promotes market discipline through enhanced disclosure requirements for banks. The aim of this paper is to provide the historical background, key features and impact of Basel II on financial markets. Moreover, we discuss new proposals for international bank regulation (sometimes referred to as Basel III) which include requirements for higher quality, constituency and transparency of banks' capital and risk management, regulation of OTC markets and introduction of new liquidity standards for internationally active banks.

Keywords: Basel II, Basel III, risk management, bank regulation

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2079 Measuring Banks’ Antifragility via Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

Abstract:

Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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2078 The Effect of Drug Prevention Programme Based On Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (Cbt) and Multidimensional Self Concept Module towards Resiliency and Aggression among At-Risk Youth in Malaysia

Authors: Mohammad Aziz Shah Mohamed Arip, Aslina Ahmad, Fauziah Mohd Sa'ad, Samsiah Mohd Jais, Syed Sofian Syed Salim

Abstract:

This experimental study evaluates the effect of using Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Multidimensional Self- Concept Model (MSCM) in a drug prevention programme to increase resiliency and reduce aggression among at-risk youth in Malaysia. A number of 60 (N=60) university students who were at-risk of taking drugs were involved in this study. Participants were identified with self-rating scales, Adolescent Resilience Attitude Scale (ARAS) and Aggression Questionnaire. Based on the mean score of these instruments, the participants were divided into the treatment group, and the control group. Data were analyzed using t-test. The finding showed that the mean score of resiliency was increased in the treatment group compared to the control group. It also shows that the mean score of aggression was reduced in the treatment group compared to the control group. Drug Prevention Programme was found to help in enhancing resiliency and reducing aggression among participants in the treatment group compared to the controlled group. Implications were given regarding the preventive actions on drug abuse among youth in Malaysia.

Keywords: Drug Prevention Programme, Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT), Multidimensional Self Concept Model (MSCM), resiliency, aggression, at-risk youth.

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2077 Solid Waste Characterization and Recycling Potential in Hawassa University, Ethiopia

Authors: Hunachew B. Mengesha, Biruck Y. Dessalegn

Abstract:

Owing to the dramatic expansion of universities in Ethiopia, understanding the composition and nature of solid waste at the source of generation plays an important role in designing a program for an integrated waste management program. In this study, we report the quantity, quality and recycling potential of the waste generated in the three campuses of the Hawassa University, Southern Ethiopia. A total of 3.5 tons of waste was generated per day in the three campuses of the university. More than 95% of the waste constituents were with potential to be recovered. It was a lesson from the study that there was no source reduction, recycling, composting, proper land filling or incineration practices in-place. The considerably high waste generation associated with the expansion of educational programs in the university appears worthwhile requiring implementation of programs for an integrated solid waste management to minimize health risk to humans and reduce environmental implications as a result of improper handling and disposal of wastes.

Keywords: Hawassa University, integrated solid waste management, solid waste generation.

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2076 Analysis of the Interference from Risk-Determining Factors of Cooperative and Conventional Construction Contracts

Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

Abstract:

As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: Collaborative work, construction industry, contract-models, influence, partnering, project management, risk.

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2075 Adaptation Measures for Sustainable Development of the Agricultural Potential of the Flood-Risk Zones of Ghareb Lowland, Morocco

Authors: R. Bourziza, W. El Khoumsi, I. Mghabbar, I. Rahou

Abstract:

The flood-risk zones called Merjas are lowlands that are flooded during the rainy season. Indeed, these depressed areas were reclaimed to dry them out in order to exploit their agricultural potential. Thus, farmers were able to start exploiting these drained lands. As the development of modern agriculture in Morocco progressed, farmers began to practice irrigated agriculture. In a context of vulnerability to floods and the need for optimal exploitation of the agricultural potential of the flood-risk zones, the question of how farmers are adapting to this context and the degree of exploitation of this potential arises. It is in these circumstances that this work was initiated, aiming at the characterization of irrigation practices in the flood-risk zones of the Ghareb lowland (Morocco). This characterization is based on two main axes: the characterization of irrigation techniques used, as well as the management of irrigation in these areas. In order to achieve our objective, two complementary approaches have been adopted; the first one is based on interviews with administrative agents and on farmer surveys, and the second one is based on field measurements of a few parameters, such as flow rate, pressure, uniformity coefficient of drippers and salinity. The results of this work led to conclude that the choice of the practiced crop (crop resistant to excess water in winter and vegetable crops during other seasons) and the availability and nature of water resources are the main criteria that determine the choice of the irrigation system. Even if irrigation management is imprecise, farmers are able to achieve agricultural yields that are comparable to those recorded in the entire irrigated perimeter. However, agricultural yields in these areas are still threatened by climate change, since these areas play the role of water retaining basins during floods by protecting the downstream areas, which can also damage the crops there instilled during the autumn. This work has also noted that the predominance of private pumping in flood-risk zones in the coastal zone creates a risk of marine intrusion, which risks endangering the groundwater table. Thus, this work enabled us to understand the functioning and the adaptation measures of these vulnerable zones for the sustainability of the Merjas and a better valorization of these marginalized lowlands.

Keywords: Flood-risk zones, irrigation practices, climate change, adaptation measures.

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2074 Aiming at Optimization of Tracking Technology through Seasonally Tilted Sun Trackers: An Indian Perspective

Authors: Sanjoy Mukherjee

Abstract:

Discussions on concepts of Single Axis Tracker (SAT) are becoming more and more apt for developing countries like India not just as an advancement in racking technology but due to the utmost necessity of reaching at the lowest Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) targets. With this increasing competition and significant fall in feed-in tariffs of solar PV projects, developers are under constant pressure to secure investment for their projects and eventually earn profits from them. Moreover, being the second largest populated country, India suffers from scarcity of land because of higher average population density. So, to mitigate the risk of this dual edged sword with reducing trend of unit (kWh) cost at one side and utilization of land on the other, tracking evolved as the call of the hour. Therefore, the prime objectives of this paper are not only to showcase how STT proves to be an effective mechanism to get more gain in Global Incidence in collector plane (Ginc) with respect to traditional mounting systems but also to introduce Seasonally Tilted Tracker (STT) technology as a possible option for high latitude locations.

Keywords: Tracking system, grid-connected PV systems, cost reduction.

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2073 Decision Trees for Predicting Risk of Mortality using Routinely Collected Data

Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

Abstract:

It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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2072 Heat Flux Reduction Research in Hypersonic Flow with Opposing Jet

Authors: Yisheng Rong, Jian Sun, Weiqiang Liu, Renjun Zhan

Abstract:

A CFD study on heat flux reduction in hypersonic flow with opposing jet has been conducted. Flowfield parameters, reattachment point position, surface pressure distributions and heat flux distributions are obtained and validated with experiments. The physical mechanism of heat reduction has been analyzed. When the opposing jet blows, the freestream is blocked off, flows to the edges and not interacts with the surface to form aerodynamic heating. At the same time, the jet flows back to form cool recirculation region, which reduces the difference in temperature between the surface and the nearby gas, and then reduces the heat flux. As the pressure ratio increases, the interface between jet and freestream is gradually pushed away from the surface. Larger the total pressure ratio is, lower the heat flux is. To study the effect of the intensity of opposing jet more reasonably, a new parameter RPA has been introduced by combining the flux and the total pressure ratio. The study shows that the same shock wave position and total heat load can be obtained with the same RPA with different fluxes and the total pressures, which means the new parameter could stand for the intensity of opposing jet and could be used to analyze the influence of opposing jet on flow field and aerodynamic heating.

Keywords: opposing jet, aerodynamic heating, total pressure ratio, thermal protection system

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2071 Risk Factors of Becoming NEET Youth in Iran: A Machine Learning Approach

Authors: Hamed Rahmani, Wim Groot

Abstract:

The term "youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)" refers to a combination of youth unemployment and school dropout. This study investigates the variables that increase the risk of becoming NEET in Iran. A selection bias-adjusted Probit model was employed using machine learning to identify these risk factors. We used cross-sectional data obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran and the Ministry of Cooperatives Labor and Social Welfare that are taken from the labor force survey conducted in the spring of 2021. We look at years of education, work experience, housework, the number of children under the age of 6 years in the home, family education, birthplace, and the amount of land owned by households. Results show that hours spent performing domestic chores enhance the likelihood of youth becoming NEET, and years of education, years of potential work experience decrease the chance of being NEET. The findings also show that female youth born in cities were less likely than those born in rural regions to become NEET.

Keywords: NEET youth, probit, CART, machine learning, unemployment.

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2070 Symmetries, Conservation Laws and Reduction of Wave and Gordon-type Equations on Riemannian Manifolds

Authors: Sameerah Jamal, Abdul Hamid Kara, Ashfaque H. Bokhari

Abstract:

Equations on curved manifolds display interesting properties in a number of ways. In particular, the symmetries and, therefore, the conservation laws reduce depending on how curved the manifold is. Of particular interest are the wave and Gordon-type equations; we study the symmetry properties and conservation laws of these equations on the Milne and Bianchi type III metrics. Properties of reduction procedures via symmetries, variational structures and conservation laws are more involved than on the well known flat (Minkowski) manifold.

Keywords: Bianchi metric, conservation laws, Milne metric, symmetries.

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