Search results for: Uncertainty sets
431 The Application of an Ensemble of Boosted Elman Networks to Time Series Prediction: A Benchmark Study
Authors: Chee Peng Lim, Wei Yee Goh
Abstract:
In this paper, the application of multiple Elman neural networks to time series data regression problems is studied. An ensemble of Elman networks is formed by boosting to enhance the performance of the individual networks. A modified version of the AdaBoost algorithm is employed to integrate the predictions from multiple networks. Two benchmark time series data sets, i.e., the Sunspot and Box-Jenkins gas furnace problems, are used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system. The simulation results reveal that an ensemble of boosted Elman networks can achieve a higher degree of generalization as well as performance than that of the individual networks. The results are compared with those from other learning systems, and implications of the performance are discussed.
Keywords: AdaBoost, Elman network, neural network ensemble, time series regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1691430 Clustering Multivariate Empiric Characteristic Functions for Multi-Class SVM Classification
Authors: María-Dolores Cubiles-de-la-Vega, Rafael Pino-Mejías, Esther-Lydia Silva-Ramírez
Abstract:
A dissimilarity measure between the empiric characteristic functions of the subsamples associated to the different classes in a multivariate data set is proposed. This measure can be efficiently computed, and it depends on all the cases of each class. It may be used to find groups of similar classes, which could be joined for further analysis, or it could be employed to perform an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis of the set of classes. The final tree can serve to build a family of binary classification models, offering an alternative approach to the multi-class SVM problem. We have tested this dendrogram based SVM approach with the oneagainst- one SVM approach over four publicly available data sets, three of them being microarray data. Both performances have been found equivalent, but the first solution requires a smaller number of binary SVM models.Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Empiric Characteristic Function, Multi-class SVM, R.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1877429 Selecting an Advanced Creep Model or a Sophisticated Time-Integration? A New Approach by Means of Sensitivity Analysis
Authors: Holger Keitel
Abstract:
The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.
Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1538428 Effect of Specimen Thickness on Probability Distribution of Grown Crack Size in Magnesium Alloys
Authors: Seon Soon Choi
Abstract:
The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.
Keywords: Crack size, Fatigue crack propagation, Magnesium alloys, Probability distribution, Specimen thickness.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1854427 Matching on Bipartite Graphs with Applications to School Course Registration Systems
Authors: Zhihan Li
Abstract:
Nowadays, most universities use the course enrollment system considering students’ registration orders. However, the students’ preference level to certain courses is also one important factor to consider. In this research, the possibility of applying a preference-first system has been discussed and analyzed compared to the order-first system. A bipartite graph is applied to resemble the relationship between students and courses they tend to register. With the graph set up, we apply Ford-Fulkerson (F.F.) Algorithm to maximize parings between two sets of nodes, in our case, students and courses. Two models are proposed in this paper: the one considered students’ order first, and the one considered students’ preference first. By comparing and contrasting the two models, we highlight the usability of models which potentially leads to better designs for school course registration systems.
Keywords: Bipartite graph, Ford-Fulkerson Algorithm, graph theory, maximum matching.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 804426 Phytopathology Prediction in Dry Soil Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling
Authors: F. Allag, S. Bouharati, M. Belmahdi, R. Zegadi
Abstract:
The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.
Keywords: Desert soil, Climatic changes, Bacteria, Vegetation, Artificial neural networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1890425 The Effects of Wind Forcing on Surface Currents on the Continental Shelf Surrounding Rottnest Island
Authors: Jennifer Penton, Charitha Pattiaratchi
Abstract:
Surface currents play a major role in the distribution of contaminants, the connectivity of marine populations, and can influence the vertical and horizontal distribution of nutrients within the water column. This paper aims to determine the effects of sea breeze-wind patterns on the climatology of the surface currents on the continental shelf surrounding Rottnest Island, WA Australia. The alternating wind patterns allow for full cyclic rotations of wind direction, permitting the interpretation of the effect of the wind on the surface currents. It was found that the surface currents only clearly follow the northbound Capes Current in times when the Fremantle Doctor sets in. Surface currents react within an hour to a change of direction of the wind, allowing southerly currents to dominate during strong northerly sea breezes, often followed by mixed currents dominated by eddies in the inter-lying times.Keywords: HF radar, surface currents, sea breeze.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1541424 Model of Optimal Centroids Approach for Multivariate Data Classification
Authors: Pham Van Nha, Le Cam Binh
Abstract:
Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a population-based stochastic optimization algorithm. PSO was inspired by the natural behavior of birds and fish in migration and foraging for food. PSO is considered as a multidisciplinary optimization model that can be applied in various optimization problems. PSO’s ideas are simple and easy to understand but PSO is only applied in simple model problems. We think that in order to expand the applicability of PSO in complex problems, PSO should be described more explicitly in the form of a mathematical model. In this paper, we represent PSO in a mathematical model and apply in the multivariate data classification. First, PSOs general mathematical model (MPSO) is analyzed as a universal optimization model. Then, Model of Optimal Centroids (MOC) is proposed for the multivariate data classification. Experiments were conducted on some benchmark data sets to prove the effectiveness of MOC compared with several proposed schemes.Keywords: Analysis of optimization, artificial intelligence-based optimization, optimization for learning and data analysis, global optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 911423 Military Combat Aircraft Selection Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)
Authors: C. Ardil
Abstract:
This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.
Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 472422 On Tarski’s Type Theorems for L-Fuzzy Isotone and L-Fuzzy Relatively Isotone Maps on L-Complete Propelattices
Authors: František Včelař, Zuzana Pátíková
Abstract:
Recently a new type of very general relational structures, the so called (L-)complete propelattices, was introduced. These significantly generalize complete lattices and completely lattice L-ordered sets, because they do not assume the technically very strong property of transitivity. For these structures also the main part of the original Tarski’s fixed point theorem holds for (L-fuzzy) isotone maps, i.e., the part which concerns the existence of fixed points and the structure of their set. In this paper, fundamental properties of (L-)complete propelattices are recalled and the so called L-fuzzy relatively isotone maps are introduced. For these maps it is proved that they also have fixed points in L-complete propelattices, even if their set does not have to be of an awaited analogous structure of a complete propelattice.Keywords: Fixed point, L-complete propelattice, L-fuzzy (relatively) isotone map, residuated lattice, transitivity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1110421 Multiwavelet and Biological Signal Processing
Authors: Morteza Moazami-Goudarzi, Ali Taheri, Mohammad Pooyan, Reza Mahboobi
Abstract:
In this paper we are to find the optimum multiwavelet for compression of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals and then, selecting it for using with SPIHT codec. At present, it is not well known which multiwavelet is the best choice for optimum compression of ECG. In this work, we examine different multiwavelets on 24 sets of ECG data with entirely different characteristics, selected from MIT-BIH database. For assessing the functionality of the different multiwavelets in compressing ECG signals, in addition to known factors such as Compression Ratio (CR), Percent Root Difference (PRD), Distortion (D), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in compression literature, we also employed the Cross Correlation (CC) criterion for studying the morphological relations between the reconstructed and the original ECG signal and Signal to reconstruction Noise Ratio (SNR). The simulation results show that the Cardinal Balanced Multiwavelet (cardbal2) by the means of identity (Id) prefiltering method to be the best effective transformation. After finding the most efficient multiwavelet, we apply SPIHT coding algorithm on the transformed signal by this multiwavelet.
Keywords: ECG compression, Prefiltering, Cardinal Balanced Multiwavelet.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1851420 Motion Recognition Based On Fuzzy WP Feature Extraction Approach
Authors: Keun-Chang Kwak
Abstract:
This paper is concerned with motion recognition based fuzzy WP(Wavelet Packet) feature extraction approach from Vicon physical data sets. For this purpose, we use an efficient fuzzy mutual-information-based WP transform for feature extraction. This method estimates the required mutual information using a novel approach based on fuzzy membership function. The physical action data set includes 10 normal and 10 aggressive physical actions that measure the human activity. The data have been collected from 10 subjects using the Vicon 3D tracker. The experiments consist of running, seating, and walking as physical activity motion among various activities. The experimental results revealed that the presented feature extraction approach showed good recognition performance.
Keywords: Motion recognition, fuzzy wavelet packet, Vicon physical data.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1644419 Effect of Magnetic Field on Mixed Convection Boundary Layer Flow over an Exponentially Shrinking Vertical Sheet with Suction
Authors: S. S. P. M. Isa, N. M. Arifin, R. Nazar, N. Bachok, F. M. Ali, I. Pop
Abstract:
A theoretical study has been presented to describe the boundary layer flow and heat transfer on an exponentially shrinking sheet with a variable wall temperature and suction, in the presence of magnetic field. The governing nonlinear partial differential equations are converted into ordinary differential equations by similarity transformation, which are then solved numerically using the shooting method. Results for the skin friction coefficient, local Nusselt number, velocity profiles as well as temperature profiles are presented through graphs and tables for several sets of values of the parameters. The effects of the governing parameters on the flow and heat transfer characteristics are thoroughly examined.
Keywords: Exponentially shrinking sheet, magnetic field, mixed convection, suction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2476418 Application-Specific Instruction Sets Processor with Implicit Registers to Improve Register Bandwidth
Authors: Ginhsuan Li, Chiuyun Hung, Desheng Chen, Yiwen Wang
Abstract:
Application-Specific Instruction (ASI ) set Processors (ASIP) have become an important design choice for embedded systems due to runtime flexibility, which cannot be provided by custom ASIC solutions. One major bottleneck in maximizing ASIP performance is the limitation on the data bandwidth between the General Purpose Register File (GPRF) and ASIs. This paper presents the Implicit Registers (IRs) to provide the desirable data bandwidth. An ASI Input/Output model is proposed to formulate the overheads of the additional data transfer between the GPRF and IRs, therefore, an IRs allocation algorithm is used to achieve the better performance by minimizing the number of extra data transfer instructions. The experiment results show an up to 3.33x speedup compared to the results without using IRs.Keywords: Application-Specific Instruction-set Processors, data bandwidth, configurable processor, implicit register.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1536417 A Multilevel Comparative Assessment Approach to International Services Trade Competitiveness: The Case of Romania and Bulgaria
Authors: Ana Bobirca, Paul-Gabriel Miclaus
Abstract:
International competitiveness receives much attention nowadays, but up to now its assessment has been heavily based on manufacturing industry statistics. This paper addresses the need for competitiveness indicators that cover the service sector and sets out a multilevel framework for measuring international services trade competitiveness. The approach undertaken here aims at comparatively examining the international competitiveness of the EU-25 (the twenty-five European Union member states before the 1st of January 2007), Romanian and Bulgarian services trade, as well as the last two countries- structure of specialization on the EU-25 services market. The primary changes in the international competitiveness of three major services sectors – transportation, travel and other services - are analyzed. This research attempts to determine the ability of the two recent European Union (EU) member states to contend with the challenges that might arise from the hard competition within the enlarged EU, in the field of services trade.Keywords: Bulgaria, EU-25, international competitiveness, international services trade, Romania.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2019416 Material Handling Equipment Selection using Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation and Analytic Hierarchy Process
Authors: Amer M. Momani, Abdulaziz A. Ahmed
Abstract:
The many feasible alternatives and conflicting objectives make equipment selection in materials handling a complicated task. This paper presents utilizing Monte Carlo (MC) simulation combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate and select the most appropriate Material Handling Equipment (MHE). The proposed hybrid model was built on the base of material handling equation to identify main and sub criteria critical to MHE selection. The criteria illustrate the properties of the material to be moved, characteristics of the move, and the means by which the materials will be moved. The use of MC simulation beside the AHP is very powerful where it allows the decision maker to represent his/her possible preference judgments as random variables. This will reduce the uncertainty of single point judgment at conventional AHP, and provide more confidence in the decision problem results. A small business pharmaceutical company is used as an example to illustrate the development and application of the proposed model.Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Materialhandling equipment selection, Monte Carlo simulation, Multi-criteriadecision making
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3138415 Inter-frame Collusion Attack in SS-N Video Watermarking System
Authors: Yaser Mohammad Taheri, Alireza Zolghadr–asli, Mehran Yazdi
Abstract:
Video watermarking is usually considered as watermarking of a set of still images. In frame-by-frame watermarking approach, each video frame is seen as a single watermarked image, so collusion attack is more critical in video watermarking. If the same or redundant watermark is used for embedding in every frame of video, the watermark can be estimated and then removed by watermark estimate remodolulation (WER) attack. Also if uncorrelated watermarks are used for every frame, these watermarks can be washed out with frame temporal filtering (FTF). Switching watermark system or so-called SS-N system has better performance against WER and FTF attacks. In this system, for each frame, the watermark is randomly picked up from a finite pool of watermark patterns. At first SS-N system will be surveyed and then a new collusion attack for SS-N system will be proposed using a new algorithm for separating video frame based on watermark pattern. So N sets will be built in which every set contains frames carrying the same watermark. After that, using WER attack in every set, N different watermark patterns will be estimated and removed later.
Keywords: Watermark estimation remodulation (WER), Frame Temporal Averaging (FTF), switching watermark system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1496414 An Interactive Ontology Visualization Approach for the Networked Home Environment
Authors: Ilkka Niskanen, Jarmo Kalaoja, Julia Kantorovitch, Toni Piirainen
Abstract:
Ontologies are broadly used in the context of networked home environments. With ontologies it is possible to define and store context information, as well as to model different kinds of physical environments. Ontologies are central to networked home environments as they carry the meaning. However, ontologies and the OWL language is complex. Several ontology visualization approaches have been developed to enhance the understanding of ontologies. The domain of networked home environments sets some special requirements for the ontology visualization approach. The visualization tool presented here, visualizes ontologies in a domain-specific way. It represents effectively the physical structures and spatial relationships of networked home environments. In addition, it provides extensive interaction possibilities for editing and manipulating the visualization. The tool shortens the gap from beginner to intermediate OWL ontology reader by visualizing instances in their actual locations and making OWL ontologies more interesting and concrete, and above all easier to comprehend.Keywords: Ontologies, visualization, interaction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1374413 The Analogue of a Property of Pisot Numbers in Fields of Formal Power Series
Authors: Wiem Gadri
Abstract:
This study delves into the intriguing properties of Pisot and Salem numbers within the framework of formal Laurent series over finite fields, a domain where these numbers’ spectral characteristics, Λm(β) and lm(β), have yet to be fully explored. Utilizing a methodological approach that combines algebraic number theory with the analysis of power series, we extend the foundational work of Erdos, Joo, and Komornik to this setting. Our research uncovers bounds for lm(β), revealing how these depend on the degree of the minimal polynomial of β and thus offering a characterization of Pisot and Salem formal power series. The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of these numbers, highlighting their distribution and properties in the context of formal power series. This investigation not only bridges number theory with formal power series analysis but also sets the stage for further interdisciplinary research in these areas.
Keywords: Pisot numbers, Salem numbers, Formal power series, Minimal polynomial degree.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 147412 The Defects Reduction in Injection Molding by Fuzzy Logic based Machine Selection System
Authors: S. Suwannasri, R. Sirovetnukul
Abstract:
The effective machine-job assignment of injection molding machines is very important for industry because it is not only directly affects the quality of the product but also the performance and lifetime of the machine as well. The phase of machine selection was mostly done by professionals or experienced planners, so the possibility of matching a job with an inappropriate machine might occur when it was conducted by an inexperienced person. It could lead to an uneconomical plan and defects. This research aimed to develop a machine selection system for plastic injection machines as a tool to help in decision making of the user. This proposed system could be used both in normal times and in times of emergency. Fuzzy logic principle is applied to deal with uncertainty and mechanical factors in the selection of both quantity and quality criteria. The six criteria were obtained from a plastic manufacturer's case study to construct a system based on fuzzy logic theory using MATLAB. The results showed that the system was able to reduce the defects of Short Shot and Sink Mark to 24.0% and 8.0% and the total defects was reduced around 8.7% per month.Keywords: Injection molding machine, machine selection, fuzzy logic, defects in injection molding, matlab.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2755411 Measuring Banks’ Antifragility via Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti
Abstract:
Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.
Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 897410 Mining and Visual Management of XML-Based Image Collections
Authors: Khalil Shihab, Nida Al-Chalabi
Abstract:
This article describes Uruk, the virtual museum of Iraq that we developed for visual exploration and retrieval of image collections. The system largely exploits the loosely-structured hierarchy of XML documents that provides a useful representation method to store semi-structured or unstructured data, which does not easily fit into existing database. The system offers users the capability to mine and manage the XML-based image collections through a web-based Graphical User Interface (GUI). Typically, at an interactive session with the system, the user can browse a visual structural summary of the XML database in order to select interesting elements. Using this intermediate result, queries combining structure and textual references can be composed and presented to the system. After query evaluation, the full set of answers is presented in a visual and structured way.Keywords: Data-centric XML, graphical user interfaces, information retrieval, case-based reasoning, fuzzy sets
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1790409 Statistical Process Optimization Through Multi-Response Surface Methodology
Authors: S. Raissi, R- Eslami Farsani
Abstract:
In recent years, response surface methodology (RSM) has brought many attentions of many quality engineers in different industries. Most of the published literature on robust design methodology is basically concerned with optimization of a single response or quality characteristic which is often most critical to consumers. For most products, however, quality is multidimensional, so it is common to observe multiple responses in an experimental situation. Through this paper interested person will be familiarize with this methodology via surveying of the most cited technical papers. It is believed that the proposed procedure in this study can resolve a complex parameter design problem with more than two responses. It can be applied to those areas where there are large data sets and a number of responses are to be optimized simultaneously. In addition, the proposed procedure is relatively simple and can be implemented easily by using ready-made standard statistical packages.Keywords: Multi-Response Surface Methodology (MRSM), Design of Experiments (DOE), Process modeling, Quality improvement; Robust Design.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4458408 Improving Order Quantity Model with Emergency Safety Stock (ESS)
Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver
Abstract:
This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.
Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, Safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, Supply chain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2869407 The Prospective Assessment of Zero-Energy Dwellings
Authors: Jovana Dj. Jovanovic, Svetlana M. Stevovic
Abstract:
The highest priority of so called, projected passive houses is to meet the appropriate energy demand. Every single material and layer which is injected into a dwelling has a certain energy quantity stored. The passive houses include optimized insulation levels with minimal thermal bridges, minimum of air leakage through the building, utilization of passive solar and internal gains, and good circulation of air which leans on mechanical ventilation system. The focus of this paper is on passive house features, benefits and targets, their feasibility and energy demands which are set up during each project. Numerous passive house-standards outline the very significant role of zero-energy dwellings towards the modern label of sustainable development. It is clear that the performance of both built and existing housing stock must be addressed if the population across the world sets out the energy objectives. This scientific article examines passive house features since the many passive house cases are launched.
Keywords: Benefits, energy demands, passive houses, sustainable development.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1254406 The Influence of Beta Shape Parameters in Project Planning
Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou
Abstract:
Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.
Keywords: Beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 770405 RANFIS : Rough Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Authors: Sandeep Chandana, Rene V. Mayorga
Abstract:
The paper presents a new hybridization methodology involving Neural, Fuzzy and Rough Computing. A Rough Sets based approximation technique has been proposed based on a certain Neuro – Fuzzy architecture. A New Rough Neuron composition consisting of a combination of a Lower Bound neuron and a Boundary neuron has also been described. The conventional convergence of error in back propagation has been given away for a new framework based on 'Output Excitation Factor' and an inverse input transfer function. The paper also presents a brief comparison of performances, of the existing Rough Neural Networks and ANFIS architecture against the proposed methodology. It can be observed that the rough approximation based neuro-fuzzy architecture is superior to its counterparts.
Keywords: Boundary neuron, neuro-fuzzy, output excitation factor, RANFIS, rough approximation, rough neural computing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1704404 Forecasting Enrollment Model Based on First-Order Fuzzy Time Series
Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev
Abstract:
This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.
Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2219403 Autonomously Determining the Parameters for SVDD with RBF Kernel from a One-Class Training Set
Authors: Andreas Theissler, Ian Dear
Abstract:
The one-class support vector machine “support vector data description” (SVDD) is an ideal approach for anomaly or outlier detection. However, for the applicability of SVDD in real-world applications, the ease of use is crucial. The results of SVDD are massively determined by the choice of the regularisation parameter C and the kernel parameter of the widely used RBF kernel. While for two-class SVMs the parameters can be tuned using cross-validation based on the confusion matrix, for a one-class SVM this is not possible, because only true positives and false negatives can occur during training. This paper proposes an approach to find the optimal set of parameters for SVDD solely based on a training set from one class and without any user parameterisation. Results on artificial and real data sets are presented, underpinning the usefulness of the approach.
Keywords: Support vector data description, anomaly detection, one-class classification, parameter tuning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2935402 Gaussian Particle Flow Bernoulli Filter for Single Target Tracking
Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su, Junjie Wang
Abstract:
The Bernoulli filter is a precise Bayesian filter for single target tracking based on the random finite set theory. The standard Bernoulli filter often underestimates the number of the targets. This study proposes a Gaussian particle flow (GPF) Bernoulli filter employing particle flow to migrate particles from prior to posterior positions to improve the performance of the standard Bernoulli filter. By employing the particle flow filter, the computational speed of the Bernoulli filters is significantly improved. In addition, the GPF Bernoulli filter provides more accurate estimation compared with that of the standard Bernoulli filter. Simulation results confirm the improved tracking performance and computational speed in two- and three-dimensional scenarios compared with other algorithms.
Keywords: Bernoulli filter, particle filter, particle flow filter, random finite sets, target tracking.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 345