Search results for: Short term wind speed prediction

Authors: M. A. Badr, A. N. Mohib, M. M. Ibrahim

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to study the technical and economic performance of wind/diesel/battery (W/D/B) system supplying a remote small gathering of six families using HOMER software package. The electrical energy is to cater for the basic needs for which the daily load pattern is estimated. Net Present Cost (NPC) and Cost of Energy (COE) are used as economic criteria, while the  measure of performance is % of power shortage. Technical and economic parameters are defined to estimate the feasibility of the system under study. Optimum system configurations are estimated for two sites. Using HOMER software, the simulation results showed that W/D/B systems are economical for the assumed community sites as the price of generated electricity is about 0.308 $/kWh, without taking external benefits into considerations. W/D/B systems are more economical than W/B or diesel alone systems, as the COE is 0.86 $/kWh for W/B and 0.357 $/kWh for diesel alone.

Keywords: Optimum energy systems, Remote electrification, Renewable energy, Wind turbine systems.

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Authors: Olimpia Matarazzo, Lucia Abbamonte

Abstract:

In two studies we challenged the well consolidated position in regret literature according to which the necessary condition for the emergence of regret is a bad outcome ensuing from free decisions. Without free choice, and, consequently, personal responsibility, other emotions, such as disappointment, but not regret, are supposed to be elicited. In our opinion, a main source of regret is being obliged by circumstance out of our control to chose an undesired option. We tested the hypothesis that regret resulting from a forced choice is more intense than regret derived from a free choice and that the outcome affects the latter, not the former. Besides, we investigated whether two other variables – the perception of the level of freedom of the choice and the choice justifiability – mediated the relationships between choice and regret, as well as the other four emotions we examined: satisfaction, anger toward oneself, disappointment, anger towards circumstances. The two studies were based on the scenario methodology and implied a 2 x 2 (choice x outcome) between design. In the first study the foreseen short-term effects of the choice were assessed; in the second study the experienced long-term effects of the choice were assessed. In each study 160 students of the Second University of Naples participated. Results largely corroborated our hypotheses. They were discussed in the light of the main theories on regret and decision making.

Keywords: Choice, outcome, regret.

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar, Roopali Dogra, Puneet Aggarwal

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Based on a survey conducted for second and third year students of the electrical engineering department at Maharishi Markandeshwar University, India, it was found that around 92% of students felt that it would be better to introduce a virtual environment for laboratory experiments. Hence, a need was felt to perform modern pedagogy techniques for students which consist of a virtual environment using MATLAB/Simulink. In this paper, a virtual environment for the speed control of a DC motor is performed using MATLAB/Simulink. The various speed control methods for the DC motor include the field resistance control method and armature voltage control method. The performance analysis of the DC motor is hence analyzed.

Keywords: Pedagogy techniques, speed control, virtual environment, DC motor, field control, voltage control.

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Authors: Susmita Sahoo, Madhumanti Datta, Rajib Kar

Abstract:

The resistive-inductive-capacitive behavior of long interconnects which are driven by CMOS gates are presented in this paper. The analysis is based on the ¤Ç-model of a RLC load and is developed for submicron devices. Accurate and analytical expressions for the output load voltage, the propagation delay and the short circuit power dissipation have been proposed after solving a system of differential equations which accurately describe the behavior of the circuit. The effect of coupling capacitance between input and output and the short circuit current on these performance parameters are also incorporated in the proposed model. The estimated proposed delay and short circuit power dissipation are in very good agreement with the SPICE simulation with average relative error less than 6%.

Keywords: Delay, Inverter, Short Circuit Power, ¤Ç-Model, RLCInterconnect, VLSI

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Authors: J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, Y. Chiang, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

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In this research, the HABIT analysis methodology was established for Maanshan nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), reports, and other data were used in this study. To evaluate the control room habitability under the CO₂ storage burst, the HABIT methodology was used to perform this analysis. The HABIT result was below the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. This indicates that Maanshan NPP habitability can be maintained. Additionally, the sensitivity study of the parameters (wind speed, atmospheric stability classification, air temperature, and control room intake flow rate) was also performed in this research.

Keywords: PWR, HABIT, habitability, Maanshan.

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Authors: Y. Chiang, W. Y. Li, J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

Abstract:

In this research, the HABIT code was used to estimate the concentration under the CO₂ and H₂SO₄ storage burst conditions for Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) and reports were used in this research. In addition, to evaluate the control room habitability for these cases, the HABIT analysis results were compared with the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. The comparison results show that the HABIT results are below the criteria. Additionally, some sensitivity studies (stability classification, wind speed and control room intake rate) were performed in this study.

Keywords: BWR, HABIT, habitability, KUOSHENG.

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Authors: Andrej Golowin, Viktor Denk, Axel Riepe

Abstract:

Solid fan blades and discs in aero engines are subjected to high combined low and high cycle fatigue loads especially around the contact areas between blade and disc. Therefore, special coatings (e.g. dry film lubricant) and surface treatments (e.g. shot peening or laser shock peening) are applied to increase the strength with respect to combined cyclic fatigue and fretting fatigue, but also to improve damage tolerance capability. The traditional deterministic damage tolerance assessment based on fracture mechanics analysis, which treats service damage as an initial crack, often gives overly conservative results especially in the presence of vibratory stresses. A probabilistic damage tolerance methodology using crack initiation data has been developed for fan discs exposed to relatively high vibratory stresses in cross- and tail-wind conditions at certain resonance speeds for limited time periods. This Monte-Carlo based method uses a damage databank from similar designs, measured vibration levels at typical aircraft operations and wind conditions and experimental crack initiation data derived from testing of artificially damaged specimens with representative surface treatment under combined fatigue conditions. The proposed methodology leads to a more realistic prediction of the minimum damage tolerance life for the most critical locations applicable to modern fan disc designs.

Keywords: Damage tolerance, Monte-Carlo method, fan blade and disc, laser shock peening.

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Authors: Zhang Tianci, Ding Meng, Zuo Hongfu, Zeng Lina, Sun Zejun

Abstract:

Automation of airport operations can greatly improve ground movement efficiency. In this paper, we study the speed profile design problem for advanced airport ground movement control and guidance. The problem is constrained by the surface four-dimensional trajectory generated in taxi planning. A decomposed approach of two stages is presented to solve this problem efficiently. In the first stage, speeds are allocated at control points, which ensure smooth speed profiles can be found later. In the second stage, detailed speed profiles of each taxi interval are generated according to the allocated control point speeds with the objective of minimizing the overall fuel consumption. We present a swarm intelligence based algorithm for the first-stage problem and a discrete variable driven enumeration method for the second-stage problem, since it only has a small set of discrete variables. Experimental results demonstrate the presented methodology performs well on real world speed profile design problems.

Keywords: Airport ground movement, fuel consumption, particle swarm optimization, smoothness, speed profile design.

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Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

Abstract:

Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir lithology, seismic attributes.

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Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

Abstract:

Wind turbines are equipment of great importance for generating clean energy in countries and regions with abundant winds. However, complex loadings fluctuations to which they are subject can cause premature failure of these equipment due to the material fatigue process. This work evaluates fatigue failures in small AISI 304 stainless steel turbine shafts. Fractographic analysis techniques, chemical analyzes using energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS), and hardness tests were used to verify the origin of the failures, characterize the properties of the components and the material. The nucleation of cracks on the shafts' surface was observed due to a combined effect of variable stresses, geometric stress concentrating details, and surface wear, leading to the crack's propagation until the catastrophic failure. Beach marks were identified in the macrographic examination, characterizing the probable failure due to fatigue. The sensitization phenomenon was also observed.

Keywords: Fatigue, sensitization phenomenon, stainless steel shafts, wind turbine failure.

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Authors: M. T. Sichani, B. J. Pedersen, S. R. K. Nielsen

Abstract:

Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical cross spectral density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the wind field area is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive definite. Since the succeeding state space and ARMA modelling of the turbulence rely on the positive definiteness of the cross-spectral density matrix, the problem with the non-positive definiteness of such matrices is at first addressed and suitable treatments regarding it are proposed. From the adjusted positive definite cross-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.

Keywords: Turbulence, wind turbine, complex coherence, state space modelling, ARMA modelling.

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Authors: K. Nirmala Devi, V. Murali Bhaskaran

Abstract:

Traditional document representation for classification follows Bag of Words (BoW) approach to represent the term weights. The conventional method uses the Vector Space Model (VSM) to exploit the statistical information of terms in the documents and they fail to address the semantic information as well as order of the terms present in the documents. Although, the phrase based approach follows the order of the terms present in the documents rather than semantics behind the word. Therefore, a semantic concept based approach is used in this paper for enhancing the semantics by incorporating the ontology information. In this paper a novel method is proposed to forecast the intraday stock market price directional movement based on the sentiments from Twitter and money control news articles. The stock market forecasting is a very difficult and highly complicated task because it is affected by many factors such as economic conditions, political events and investor’s sentiment etc. The stock market series are generally dynamic, nonparametric, noisy and chaotic by nature. The sentiment analysis along with wisdom of crowds can automatically compute the collective intelligence of future performance in many areas like stock market, box office sales and election outcomes. The proposed method utilizes collective sentiments for stock market to predict the stock price directional movements. The collective sentiments in the above social media have powerful prediction on the stock price directional movements as up/down by using Granger Causality test.

Keywords: Bag of Words, Collective Sentiments, Ontology, Semantic relations, Sentiments, Social media, Stock Prediction, Twitter, Vector Space Model and wisdom of crowds.

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Authors: Li-Yeh Chuang, Yu-Jen Hou, Jr., Cheng-Hong Yang

Abstract:

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) hold much promise as a basis for disease-gene association. However, research is limited by the cost of genotyping the tremendous number of SNPs. Therefore, it is important to identify a small subset of informative SNPs, the so-called tag SNPs. This subset consists of selected SNPs of the genotypes, and accurately represents the rest of the SNPs. Furthermore, an effective evaluation method is needed to evaluate prediction accuracy of a set of tag SNPs. In this paper, a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to tag SNP problems, and the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) serves as a prediction method of tag SNP selection. The experimental data used was taken from the HapMap project; it consists of genotype data rather than haplotype data. The proposed method consistently identified tag SNPs with considerably better prediction accuracy than methods from the literature. At the same time, the number of tag SNPs identified was smaller than the number of tag SNPs in the other methods. The run time of the proposed method was much shorter than the run time of the SVM/STSA method when the same accuracy was reached.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Genotype, Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), tag SNPs.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction.

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Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

Abstract:

We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: Entropy, mathematical, prediction, cardiac, holter, attractor.

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Authors: A. Chaouachi, R.M. Kamel, R. Ichikawa, H. Hayashi, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This paper presents the applicability of artificial neural networks for 24 hour ahead solar power generation forecasting of a 20 kW photovoltaic system, the developed forecasting is suitable for a reliable Microgrid energy management. In total four neural networks were proposed, namely: multi-layred perceptron, radial basis function, recurrent and a neural network ensemble consisting in ensemble of bagged networks. Forecasting reliability of the proposed neural networks was carried out in terms forecasting error performance basing on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results showed that all the proposed networks achieved an acceptable forecasting accuracy. In term of comparison the neural network ensemble gives the highest precision forecasting comparing to the conventional networks. In fact, each network of the ensemble over-fits to some extent and leads to a diversity which enhances the noise tolerance and the forecasting generalization performance comparing to the conventional networks.

Keywords: Neural network ensemble, Solar power generation, 24 hour forecasting, Comparative study

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

Abstract:

Regardless of age or gender, cardiovascular illnesses are a serious health concern because of things like poor eating habits, stress, a sedentary lifestyle, hard work schedules, alcohol use, and weight. It tends to happen suddenly and has a high rate of recurrence. Machine learning models can be implemented to assist healthcare systems in the accurate detection and diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients. Improved heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of researchers using the heart disease dataset. The purpose of this study is to identify the feature or features that offer the best classification prediction for CVD detection. The support vector machine classifier is used to compare each feature's performance. It has been determined which feature produces the best results.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, support vector machine.

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Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li

Abstract:

Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.

Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image

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Authors: Yuan L. Lai, Jian H. Chen, Jui P. Hung

Abstract:

Owning to the high-speed feed rate and ultra spindle speed have been used in modern machine tools, the tool-path generation plays a key role in the successful application of a High-Speed Machining (HSM) system. Because of its importance in both high-speed machining and tool-path generation, approximating a contour by NURBS format is a potential function in CAD/CAM/CNC systems. It is much more convenient to represent an ellipse by parametric form than to connect points laboriously determined in a CNC system. A new approximating method based on optimum processes and NURBS curves of any degree to the ellipses is presented in this study. Such operations can be the foundation of tool-radius compensation interpolator of NURBS curves in CNC system. All operating processes for a CAD tool is presented and demonstrated by practical models.

Keywords: Ellipse, Approximation, NURBS, Optimum.

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Authors: Jamalizadeh, M.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Piri, J., Arbabi, V., Homayounifar, M., Shahryari, A.

Abstract:

Dust storms are one of the most costly and destructive events in many desert regions. They can cause massive damages both in natural environments and human lives. This paper is aimed at presenting a preliminary study on dust storms, as a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. As a case study, dust storm events occurred in Zabol city located in Sistan Region of Iran was analyzed to diagnose and predict dust storms. The identification and prediction of dust storm events could have significant impacts on damages reduction. Present models for this purpose are complicated and not appropriate for many areas with poor-data environments. The present study explores Gamma test for identifying inputs of ANNs model, for dust storm prediction. Results indicate that more attempts must be carried out concerning dust storms identification and segregate between various dust storm types.

Keywords: Dust Storm, Gamma Test, Prediction, ANNs, Zabol.

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Authors: Mohammed Erritali

Abstract:

The growth in the volume of text data such as books and articles in libraries for centuries has imposed to establish effective mechanisms to locate them. Early techniques such as abstraction, indexing and the use of classification categories have marked the birth of a new field of research called "Information Retrieval". Information Retrieval (IR) can be defined as the task of defining models and systems whose purpose is to facilitate access to a set of documents in electronic form (corpus) to allow a user to find the relevant ones for him, that is to say, the contents which matches with the information needs of the user. Most of the models of information retrieval use a specific data structure to index a corpus which is called "inverted file" or "reverse index". This inverted file collects information on all terms over the corpus documents specifying the identifiers of documents that contain the term in question, the frequency of each term in the documents of the corpus, the positions of the occurrences of the word... In this paper we use an oriented object database (db4o) instead of the inverted file, that is to say, instead to search a term in the inverted file, we will search it in the db4o database. The purpose of this work is to make a comparative study to see if the oriented object databases may be competing for the inverse index in terms of access speed and resource consumption using a large volume of data.

Keywords: Information Retrieval, indexation, oriented object database (db4o), inverted file.

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

Abstract:

Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: Zoheir Tir, Rachid Abdessemed

Abstract:

This paper presents a new control scheme to control a brushless doubly fed induction generator (BDFIG) using back-to-back PWM converters for wind power generation. The proposed control scheme is a New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC). The goal of BDFIG control is to achieve a similar dynamic performance to the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), exploiting the well-known induction machine vector control philosophy. The performance of NSTFPDC controller has been investigated and compared with the two controllers, called Proportional–Integral (PI) and PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller (PD-like FLC) based BDFIG. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and the robustness of the NSTFPDC controller.

Keywords: Brushless Doubly Fed Induction Generator (BDFIG), PI controller, PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller, New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC), Scaling factor, back-to-back PWM converters, wind energy system.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Mevlüt Burak Dalmış, Kemal Yaman

Abstract:

In this study, flutter characteristics of cantilever rectangular plate structure under incompressible flow regime are investigated by comparing the results of commercial flutter analysis program ZAERO^© with wind tunnel tests conducted in Ankara Wind Tunnel (ART). A rectangular polycarbonate (PC) plate, 5x125x1000 mm in dimensions, is used for both numerical and experimental investigations. Analysis and test results are very compatible with each other. A comparison between two different solution methods (g and k-method) of ZAERO^© is also done. It is seen that, k-method gives closer result than the other one. However, g-method results are on conservative side and it is better to use conservative results namely g-method results. Even if the modal analysis results are used for the flutter analysis for this simple structure, a modal test should be conducted in order to validate the modal analysis results to have accurate flutter analysis results for more complicated structures.

Keywords: Flutter, plate, subsonic flow, wind tunnel.

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Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

Abstract:

The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: Central ML, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local ML, Wireless Sensor Networks, WSN.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Sandeep Khimta, Kiranpreet Kaur

Abstract:

The prediction of Software quality during development life cycle of software project helps the development organization to make efficient use of available resource to produce the product of highest quality. “Whether a module is faulty or not" approach can be used to predict quality of a software module. There are numbers of software quality prediction models described in the literature based upon genetic algorithms, artificial neural network and other data mining algorithms. One of the promising aspects for quality prediction is based on clustering techniques. Most quality prediction models that are based on clustering techniques make use of K-means, Mixture-of-Guassians, Self-Organizing Map, Neural Gas and fuzzy K-means algorithm for prediction. In all these techniques a predefined structure is required that is number of neurons or clusters should be known before we start clustering process. But in case of Growing Neural Gas there is no need of predetermining the quantity of neurons and the topology of the structure to be used and it starts with a minimal neurons structure that is incremented during training until it reaches a maximum number user defined limits for clusters. Hence, in this work we have used Growing Neural Gas as underlying cluster algorithm that produces the initial set of labeled cluster from training data set and thereafter this set of clusters is used to predict the quality of test data set of software modules. The best testing results shows 80% accuracy in evaluating the quality of software modules. Hence, the proposed technique can be used by programmers in evaluating the quality of modules during software development.

Keywords: Growing Neural Gas, data clustering, fault prediction.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Kavian Nezhad, Carlos F. Lange, Brian A. Fleck

Abstract:

This research presents the validation study of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the scalar dispersion emitted from rooftop sources around the buildings at the University of Alberta North Campus. The ANSYS CFX code was used to perform the numerical simulation of the wind regime and pollutant dispersion by solving the 3D steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a building-scale high-resolution grid. The validation study was performed in two steps. First, the CFD model performance in 24 cases (eight wind directions and three wind speeds) was evaluated by comparing the predicted flow fields with the available data from the previous measurement campaign designed at the North Campus, using the standard deviation method (SDM), while the estimated results of the numerical model showed maximum average percent errors of approximately 53% and 37% for wind incidents from the North and Northwest, respectively. Good agreement with the measurements was observed for the other six directions, with an average error of less than 30%. In the second step, the reliability of the implemented turbulence model, numerical algorithm, modeling techniques, and the grid generation scheme was further evaluated using the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) dispersion dataset. Different statistical measures, including the fractional bias (FB), the mean geometric bias (MG), and the normalized mean square error (NMSE), were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted dispersion field. Our CFD results are in very good agreement with the field measurements.

Keywords: CFD, plume dispersion, complex urban geometry, validation study, wind flow.

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

Abstract:

Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD.

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