Search results for: regression curves

Authors: Christian Castro Samaniego, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Juan Portoviejo Brito

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For this research work, hybrid wind-photovoltaic (SHEF) systems were considered as renewable energy sources that take advantage of wind energy and solar radiation to transform into electrical energy. In the present research work, the feasibility of a wind-photovoltaic hybrid generation system was analyzed for the La Tranca tourist viewpoint of the Chordeleg canton in Ecuador. The research process consisted of the collection of data on solar radiation, temperature, wind speed among others by means of a meteorological station. Simulations were carried out in MATLAB/Simulink based on a mathematical model. In the end, we compared the theoretical radiation-power curves and the measurements made at the site.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, validation, experimental data, panel, Ecuador.

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Authors: S.C. Chin, N. Shafiq, M.F. Nuruddin

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To date, theoretical studies concerning the Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) strengthening of RC beams with openings have been rather limited. In addition, various numerical analyses presented so far have effectively simulated the behaviour of solid beam strengthened by FRP material. In this paper, a two dimensional nonlinear finite element analysis is presented to validate against the laboratory test results of six RC beams. All beams had the same rectangular cross-section geometry and were loaded under four point bending. The crack pattern results of the finite element model show good agreement with the crack pattern of the experimental beams. The load midspan deflection curves of the finite element models exhibited a stiffer result compared to the experimental beams. The possible reason may be due to the perfect bond assumption used between the concrete and steel reinforcement.

Keywords: CFRP, large opening, RC beam, strengthening

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Authors: M. B. Shuai, S. Xiao, Q. S. Li, M. F. Chu, X. F. Yang

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Ambient hydrolysis products in moist air and hydrolysis kinetics in argon with humidity of RH1.5% for polycrystalline LiH powders and sintered bulks were investigated by X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy and gravimetry. The results showed that the hydrolysis products made up a layered structure of LiOH•H2O/LiOH/Li2O from surface of the sample to inside. In low humid argon atmosphere, the primary hydrolysis product was Li2O rather than LiOH. The hydrolysis kinetic curves of LiH bulks present a paralinear shape, which could be explained by the “Layer Diffusion Control" model. While a three-stage hydrolysis kinetic profile was observed for LiH powders under the same experimental conditions. The first two sections were similar to that of the bulk samples, and the third section also presents a linear reaction kinetics but with a smaller reaction rate compared to the second section because of a larger exothermic effect for the hydrolysis reaction of LiH powder.

Keywords: Hydrolysis, lithium compound, polycrystallinelithium hydride

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Authors: Viet Dzung Nguyen, Duc Thuan Nguyen, Tien Dzung Nguyen, Van Thanh Pham

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Mammography is the most effective procedure for an early diagnosis of the breast cancer. Nowadays, people are trying to find a way or method to support as much as possible to the radiologists in diagnosis process. The most popular way is now being developed is using Computer-Aided Detection (CAD) system to process the digital mammograms and prompt the suspicious region to radiologist. In this paper, an automated CAD system for detection and classification of massive lesions in mammographic images is presented. The system consists of three processing steps: Regions-Of- Interest detection, feature extraction and classification. Our CAD system was evaluated on Mini-MIAS database consisting 322 digitalized mammograms. The CAD system-s performance is evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Freeresponse ROC (FROC) curves. The archived results are 3.47 false positives per image (FPpI) and sensitivity of 85%.

Keywords: classification, computer-aided detection, featureextraction, mass detection.

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Authors: Fernando Miguel Campos, Fernando Jesus Aguiar, Pedro Campos

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A large amount of software products offer a wide range and number of features. This is called featuritis or creeping featurism and tends to rise with each release of the product. Feautiris often adds unnecessary complexity to software, leading to longer learning curves and overall confusing the users and degrading their experience. We take a look to a new design approach tendency that has been coming up, the so-called “What You Get is What You Need” concept that argues that products should be very focused, simple and with minimalistic interfaces in order to help users conduct their tasks in distraction-free ambiences. This isn’t as simple to implement as it might sound and the developers need to cut down features. Our contribution illustrates and evaluates this design method through a novel distraction-free diagramming tool named Delineato Pro for Mac OS X in which the user is confronted with an empty canvas when launching the software and where tools only show up when really needed.

Keywords: Diagramming, HCI, usability, user interface.

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Inta Volodko, Valentina Koliskina

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Linear stability of wake-shear layers in two-phase shallow flows is analyzed in the present paper. Stability analysis is based on two-dimensional shallow water equations. It is assumed that the fluid contains uniformly distributed solid particles. No dynamic interaction between the carrier fluid and particles is expected in the initial moment. Linear stability curves are obtained for different values of the particle loading parameter, the velocity ratio and the velocity deficit. It is shown that the increase in the velocity ratio destabilizes the flow. The particle loading parameter has a stabilizing effect on the flow. The role of the velocity deficit is also destabilizing: the increase of the velocity deficit leads to less stable flow.

Keywords: Linear stability, Shallow flows, Wake-shear flows.

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Authors: A. Satour, F. Boubenider, R. Halimi, A. Badidibouda

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Sandwich plates are finding an increasing range of application in the aircraft industry. The inspection of honeycomb composite structure by conventional ultrasonic technique is complex and very time consuming. The present study demonstrates a technique using guided Lamb waves at low frequencies to predict de-bond defects in aluminum skin-honeycomb core sandwich structure used in aeronautics. The numerical method was investigated for drawing the dispersion and displacement curves of ultrasonic Lamb wave propagated in Aluminum plate. An experimental study was carried out to check the theoretical prediction. The detection of unsticking between the skin and the core was tested by the two first modes for a low frequency. It was found that A0 mode is more sensitive to delamination defect compared to S0 mode.

Keywords: Damage detection, delamination, guided waves, Sandwich structure.

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Authors: Arun Goel, D. V. S. Verma, Sanjeev Sangwan

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Present study was aimed to develop a discharge measuring device for irrigation and laboratory channels. Experiments were conducted on sharp edged constricted flow meters having four types of width constrictions namely 2:1, 1.5:1, 1:1 and 90o in the direction of flow. These devices were made of MS sheets and installed separately in a rectangular flume. All these four devices were tested under free and submerged flow conditions. Eight different discharges varying from 2 lit/sec to 30 lit/sec were passed through each device. In total around 500 observations of upstream and downstream depths were taken in the present work. For each discharge, free submerged and critical submergence under different flow conditions were noted and plotted. Once the upstream and downstream depths of flow over any of the device are known, the discharge can be easily calculated with the help of the curves developed for free and submerged flow conditions. The device having contraction 2:1 is the most efficient one as it allows maximum critical submergence.

Keywords: Flowrate, flowmeter, open channels, submergence.

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Authors: M. Abbaspour, D. Mansouri, N. Mansouri

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There are reports of gas and oil wells fire due to different accidents. Many different methods are used for fire fighting in gas and oil industry. Traditional fire extinguishing techniques are mostly faced with many problems and are usually time consuming and needs lots of equipments. Besides, they cause damages to facilities, and create health and environmental problems. This article proposes innovative approach in fire extinguishing techniques in oil and gas industry, especially applicable for burning oil wells located offshore. Fire extinguishment employing a turbojet is a novel approach which can help to extinguishment the fire in short period of time. Divergent and convergent turbojets modeled in laboratory scale along with a high pressure flame were used. Different experiments were conducted to determine the relationship between output discharges of trumpet and oil wells. The results were corrected and the relationship between dimensionless parameters of flame and fire extinguishment distances and also the output discharge of turbojet and oil wells in specified distances are demonstrated by specific curves.

Keywords: Burning well, fire extinguishment, gas/oil industry, simulation.

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Authors: Benjamin Anderson-Sackaney, Amr Abdel-Dayem

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This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent source camera identification (SCI) systems. Then, the performance of various sensor pattern noise (SPN) estimators was experimentally assessed, under common photo response non-uniformity (PRNU) frameworks. The experiments used 1350 natural and 900 flat-field images, captured by 18 individual cameras. 12 different experiments, grouped into three sets, were conducted. The results were analyzed using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The experimental results demonstrated that combining the basic SPN estimator with a wavelet-based filtering scheme provides promising results. However, the phase SPN estimator fits better with both patch-based (BM3D) and anisotropic diffusion (AD) filtering schemes.

Keywords: Sensor pattern noise, source camera identification, photo response non-uniformity, anisotropic diffusion, peak to correlation energy ratio.

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Authors: J.E. Park, G.R. Kim, D.J. Yoon, C.H. Sin, I.S. Park, T.S. Bea, M.H. Lee

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Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are attractive because of their excellent chemical durability mechanical strength and electrical properties. Therefore there is interest in CNTs for not only electrical and mechanical application, but also biological and medical application. In this study, the dispersion power of surfactant-treated multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and their effect on the antibacterial activity were examined. Surfactant was used sodium dodecyl-benzenesulfonate (SDBS). UV-vis absorbance and transmission electron microscopy(TEM) were used to characterize the dispersion of MWCNTs in the aqueous phase, showing that the surfactant molecules had been adsorbed onto the MWCNTs surface. The surfactant-treated MWCNTs exhibited antimicrobial activities to streptococcus mutans. The optical density growth curves and viable cell number determined by the plating method suggested that the antimicrobial activity of surfactant-treated MWCNTs was both concentration and treatment time-dependent.

Keywords: MWCNT, SDBS, surfactant, antibacterial.

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Authors: K. L. Verma

Abstract:

Analysis for the propagation of elastic waves in arbitrary anisotropic plates is investigated, commencing with a formal analysis of waves in a layered plate of an arbitrary anisotropic media, the dispersion relations of elastic waves are obtained by invoking continuity at the interface and boundary of conditions on the surfaces of layered plate. The obtained solutions can be used for material systems of higher symmetry such as monoclinic, orthotropic, transversely isotropic, cubic, and isotropic as it is contained implicitly in the analysis. The cases of free layered plate and layered half space are considered separately. Some special cases have also been deduced and discussed. Finally numerical solution of the frequency equations for an aluminum epoxy is carried out, and the dispersion curves for the few lower modes are presented. The results obtained theoretically have been verified numerically and illustrated graphically.

Keywords: Anisotropic, layered, dispersion, elastic waves, frequency equations.

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Authors: M. S. Al-Assiri, M. M. El-Desoky, Ahmed A. Ibrahim, M. Abaker, A. A. Bahgat

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Nanocrystalline thin film of Na0.1V2O5.nH2O xerogel obtained by sol gel synthesis was used as gas sensor. Gas sensing properties of different gases such as hydrogen, petroleum and humidity were investigated. Applying XRD and TEM the size of the nanocrystals is found to be 7.5 nm. SEM shows a highly porous structure with submicron meter-sized voids present throughout the sample. FTIR measurement shows different chemical groups identifying the obtained series of gels. The sample was n-type semiconductor according to the thermoelectric power and electrical conductivity. It can be seen that the sensor response curves from 130oC to 150oC show a rapid increase in sensitivity for all types of gas injection, low response values for heating period and the rapid high response values for cooling period. This result may suggest that this material is able to act as gas sensor during the heating and cooling process.

Keywords: Sol gel, Thermoelectric power, XRD, TEM, Gas sensing.

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Authors: D. Cardone

Abstract:

Past earthquakes have shown that seismic events may incur large economic losses in buildings. FEMA P-58 provides engineers a practical tool for the performance seismic assessment of buildings. In this study, FEMA P-58 is applied to two typical Italian pre-1970 reinforced concrete frame buildings, characterized by plain rebars as steel reinforcement and masonry infills and partitions. Given that suitable tools for these buildings are missing in FEMA P- 58, specific fragility curves and loss functions are first developed. Next, building performance is evaluated following a time-based assessment approach. Finally, expected annual losses for the selected buildings are derived and compared with past applications to old RC frame buildings representative of the US building stock. 

Keywords: FEMA P-58, RC frame buildings, plain rebars, masonry infills, fragility functions, loss functions, expected annual loss.

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Authors: I. Herraiz-Cardona, C. González-Buch, E. Ortega, V. Pérez-Herranz, J. García-Antón

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Hydrogen is considered to be the most promising candidate as a future energy carrier. One of the most used technologies for the electrolytic hydrogen production is alkaline water electrolysis. However, due to the high energy requirements, the cost of hydrogen produced in such a way is high. In continuous search to improve this process using advanced electrocatalytic materials for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), Ni type Raney and macro-porous Ni-Co electrodes were prepared on AISI 304 stainless steel substrates by electrodeposition. The developed electrodes were characterized by SEM and confocal laser scanning microscopy. HER on these electrodes was evaluated in 30 wt.% KOH solution by means of hydrogen discharge curves and galvanostatic tests. Results show that the developed electrodes present a most efficient behaviour for HER when comparing with the smooth Ni cathode. It has been reported a reduction in the energy consumption of the electrolysis cell of about 25% by using the developed coatings as cathodes.

Keywords: Alkaline water electrolysis, energy efficiency, porous nickel electrodes

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Authors: M. M. Sadeghi, S. Vahdani

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Masonry dome structures had been widely used for covering large spans in the past. The seismic assessment of these historical structures is very complicated due to the nonlinear behavior of the material, their rigidness, and special stability configuration. The assessment method based on energy balance concept, as well as the standard pushover analysis, is used to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods in the case of masonry dome structures. The Soltanieh dome building is used as an example to which two methods are applied. The performance points are given from superimposing the capacity, and demand curves in Acceleration Displacement Response Spectra (ADRS) and energy coordination are compared with the nonlinear time history analysis as the exact result. The results show a good agreement between the dynamic analysis and the energy balance method, but standard pushover method does not provide an acceptable estimation.

Keywords: Energy balance method, pushover analysis, time history analysis, masonry dome.

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Authors: Shorena Pharjiani

Abstract:

Present empirical paper investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth by 10 selected industries in 10 Central and Eastern European countries from the period 1995 to 2012. Different estimation approaches were used to explore the connection between FDI and economic growth, for example OLS, RE, FE with and without time dummies. Obtained empirical results leads to some main consequences: First, the Central and East European countries (CEEC) attracted foreign direct investment, which raised the productivity of industries they entered in. It should be concluded that the linkage between FDI and output growth by industries is positive and significant enough to suggest that foreign firm’s participation enhanced the productivity of the industries they occupied. There had been an endogeneity problem in the regression and fixed effects estimation approach was used which partially corrected the regression analysis in order to make the results less biased. Second, it should be stressed that the results show that time has an important role in making FDI operational for enhancing output growth by industries via total factor productivity. Third, R&D positively affected economic growth and at the same time, it should take some time for research and development to influence economic growth. Fourth, the general trends masked crucial differences at the country level: over the last 20 years, the analysis of the tables and figures at the country level show that the main recipients of FDI of the 11 Central and Eastern European countries were Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. The main reason was that these countries had more open door policies for attracting the FDI. Fifth, according to the graphical analysis, while Hungary had the highest FDI inflow in this region, it was not reflected in the GDP growth as much as in other Central and Eastern European countries.

Keywords: Central and East European countries (CEEC), economic growth, FDI, panel data.

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Authors: S. H. Yahaya, J. M. Ali, T.A. Abdullah

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The exploration of this paper will focus on the Cshaped transition curve. This curve is designed by using the concept of circle to circle where one circle lies inside other. The degree of smoothness employed is curvature continuity. The function used in designing the C-curve is Bézier-like cubic function. This function has a low degree, flexible for the interactive design of curves and surfaces and has a shape parameter. The shape parameter is used to control the C-shape curve. Once the C-shaped curve design is completed, this curve will be applied to design spur gear tooth. After the tooth design procedure is finished, the design will be analyzed by using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This analysis is used to find out the applicability of the tooth design and the gear material that chosen. In this research, Cast Iron 4.5 % Carbon, ASTM A-48 is selected as a gear material.

Keywords: Bézier-like cubic function, Curvature continuity, Cshapedtransition curve, Spur gear tooth.

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Authors: Michael Grigutsch, Marco Kennemann, Peter Nyhuis

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Due to the recovering global economy, enterprises are increasingly focusing on logistics. Investing in logistic measures for a production generates a large potential for achieving a good starting point within a competitive field. Unlike during the global economic crisis, enterprises are now challenged with investing available capital to maximize profits. In order to be able to create an informed and quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need an adequate model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures in production. The Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the Institute for Production Systems (IFA) developed a Logistic Information System which provides support in making decisions and is designed specifically for the forging industry. The aim of a project that has been applied for is to now transfer this process in order to develop a universal approach to logistically and monetarily evaluate measures in production.

Keywords: Measures in Production, Logistic Operating Curves, Transfer Functions, Production Logistics

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Authors: Abhijit Mitra, C. Ardil

Abstract:

We investigate efficient spreading codes for transmitter based techniques of code division multiple access (CDMA) systems. The channel is considered to be known at the transmitter which is usual in a time division duplex (TDD) system where the channel is assumed to be the same on uplink and downlink. For such a TDD/CDMA system, both bitwise and blockwise multiuser transmission schemes are taken up where complexity is transferred to the transmitter side so that the receiver has minimum complexity. Different spreading codes are considered at the transmitter to spread the signal efficiently over the entire spectrum. The bit error rate (BER) curves portray the efficiency of the codes in presence of multiple access interference (MAI) as well as inter symbol interference (ISI).

Keywords: Code division multiple access, time division duplex, transmitter technique, precoding, pre-rake, rake, spreading code.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: F. I. Belheouane, M. Bensaibi

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The seismic feedback experiences in Algeria have shown higher percentage of damages for non-code conforming reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Furthermore, the vulnerability of these buildings was further aggravated due to presence of many factors (e.g. weak the seismic capacity of these buildings, shorts columns, Pounding effect, etc.). Consequently Seismic risk assessments were carried out on populations of buildings to identify the buildings most likely to undergo losses during an earthquake. The results of such studies are important in the mitigation of losses under future seismic events as they allow strengthening intervention and disaster management plans to be drawn up. Within this paper, the state of the existing structures is assessed using "the vulnerability index" method. This method allows the classification of RC constructions taking into account both, structural and non structural parameters, considered to be ones of the main parameters governing the vulnerability of the structure. Based on seismic feedback from past earthquakes DPM (damage probability matrices) were developed too.

Keywords: Seismic vulnerability, Reinforced concrete buildings, Earthquake, DPM, Algeria.

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Authors: Israel Núñez-Hernández, Peter C. Breedveld, Paul B. T. Weustink, Gilberto Gonzalez-A

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This paper presents the use of phasor bond graphs to obtain the steady-state behavior of a synchronous generator. The phasor bond graph elements are built using 2D multibonds, which represent the real and imaginary part of the phasor. The dynamic bond graph model of a salient-pole synchronous generator is showed, and verified viz. a sudden short-circuit test. The reduction of the dynamic model into a phasor representation is described. The previous test is executed on the phasor bond graph model, and its steady-state values are compared with the dynamic response. Besides, the widely used power (torque)-angle curves are obtained by means of the phasor bond graph model, to test the usefulness of this model.

Keywords: Bond graphs, complex power, phasors, synchronous generator, short-circuit, open-circuit, power-angle curve.

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

Abstract:

The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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Authors: Ahmad Z., Othman S. Z., Md Yunus B., Mohamed A.

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According to the masonry standard the compressive strength is basically dependent on factors such as the mortar strength and the relative values of unit and mortar strength. However interlocking brick has none or less use of mortar. Therefore there is a need to investigate the behavior of masonry walls using interlocking bricks. In this study a series of tests have been conducted; physical properties and compressive strength of brick units and masonry walls were constructed from interlocking bricks and tested under constant vertical load at different eccentricities. The purpose of the experimental investigations is to obtain the force displacement curves, analyze the behavior of masonry walls. The results showed that the brick is categorized as common brick (BS 3921:1985) and severe weathering grade (ASTM C62). The maximum compressive stress of interlocking brick wall is 3.6 N/mm2 and fulfilled the requirement of standard for residential building.

Keywords: Interlocking brick, soil-cement brick, masonry wall, compressive strength, eccentricities

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Authors: Jaqueline M. R. Vieira

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Different strategies and tools are available at the oil and gas industry for detecting and analyzing tension and possible fractures in borehole walls. Most of these techniques are based on manual observation of the captured borehole images. While this strategy may be possible and convenient with small images and few data, it may become difficult and suitable to errors when big databases of images must be treated. While the patterns may differ among the image area, depending on many characteristics (drilling strategy, rock components, rock strength, etc.). In this work we propose the inclusion of data-mining classification strategies in order to create a knowledge database of the segmented curves. These classifiers allow that, after some time using and manually pointing parts of borehole images that correspond to tension regions and breakout areas, the system will indicate and suggest automatically new candidate regions, with higher accuracy. We suggest the use of different classifiers methods, in order to achieve different knowledge dataset configurations.

Keywords: Brazil, classifiers, data-mining, Image Segmentation, oil well visualization, classifiers.

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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Authors: Bernd Scholz-Reiter, Christian Toonen, Jan Topi Tervo, Dennis Lappe

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Time series analysis often requires data that represents the evolution of an observed variable in equidistant time steps. In order to collect this data sampling is applied. While continuous signals may be sampled, analyzed and reconstructed applying Shannon-s sampling theorem, time-discrete signals have to be dealt with differently. In this article we consider the discrete-event simulation (DES) of job-shop-systems and study the effects of different sampling rates on data quality regarding completeness and accuracy of reconstructed inventory evolutions. At this we discuss deterministic as well as non-deterministic behavior of system variables. Error curves are deployed to illustrate and discuss the sampling rate-s impact and to derive recommendations for its wellfounded choice.

Keywords: discrete-event simulation, job-shop-system, sampling rate.

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Authors: T.S.Balasubramanian, V.Balasubramanian, M.A.Muthumanikkam

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This paper reports the fatigue crack growth behaviour of gas tungsten arc, electron beam and laser beam welded Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy. Centre cracked tensile specimens were prepared to evaluate the fatigue crack growth behaviour. A 100kN servo hydraulic controlled fatigue testing machine was used under constant amplitude uniaxial tensile load (stress ratio of 0.1 and frequency of 10 Hz). Crack growth curves were plotted and crack growth parameters (exponent and intercept) were evaluated. Critical and threshold stress intensity factor ranges were also evaluated. Fatigue crack growth behaviour of welds was correlated with mechanical properties and microstructural characteristics of welds. Of the three joints, the joint fabricated by laser beam welding exhibited higher fatigue crack growth resistance due to the presence of fine lamellar microstructure in the weld metal.

Keywords: Fatigue, Non ferrous metals and alloys, welding

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