Search results for: Multi objective Optimization
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 4787

Search results for: Multi objective Optimization

197 Modeling and FOS Feedback Based Control of SISO Intelligent Structures with Embedded Shear Sensors and Actuators

Authors: T. C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

Active vibration control is an important problem in structures. The objective of active vibration control is to reduce the vibrations of a system by automatic modification of the system-s structural response. In this paper, the modeling and design of a fast output sampling feedback controller for a smart flexible beam system embedded with shear sensors and actuators for SISO system using Timoshenko beam theory is proposed. FEM theory, Timoshenko beam theory and the state space techniques are used to model the aluminum cantilever beam. For the SISO case, the beam is divided into 5 finite elements and the control actuator is placed at finite element position 1, whereas the sensor is varied from position 2 to 5, i.e., from the nearby fixed end to the free end. Controllers are designed using FOS method and the performance of the designed FOS controller is evaluated for vibration control for 4 SISO models of the same plant. The effect of placing the sensor at different locations on the beam is observed and the performance of the controller is evaluated for vibration control. Some of the limitations of the Euler-Bernoulli theory such as the neglection of shear and axial displacement are being considered here, thus giving rise to an accurate beam model. Embedded shear sensors and actuators have been considered in this paper instead of the surface mounted sensors and actuators for vibration suppression because of lot of advantages. In controlling the vibration modes, the first three dominant modes of vibration of the system are considered.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Fast output sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, SISO, Vibration control, LMI

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196 Branding Good Corporate Governance: A Pathway to Strengthen Investors’ Perception and Brand Equity

Authors: Azaz Zaman, Imtiaz Uddin Chowdhury, Mohammad Shariful Islam

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Corporate governance has become a crucial issue in both the business and academic world as a result of world-wide financial scandals and lack of trust in corporate practices. There is no doubt that in order to thrive and attain growth in the market, a company must earn the trust of its stakeholders by consistently delivering on its commitments. Directors of the companies thus comprehend the importance of upfront communication with relevant stakeholders to increase their confidence. The authors of this article argue that practicing good corporate governance is not enough in this highly competitive market place; corporate leaders need to market their good corporate governance practices in order to make the company more attractive to investors. This article also contends that the strength of corporate governance relies wholly upon the extent to which it is communicated simply, effectively and unceasingly to its stakeholders. The main objective of this study, therefore, is to explore the importance of branding good corporate governance in order to increase corporate brand equity, attract investors, and capture market share. A structured questionnaire comprising three sections and a total of 34 questions was prepared and surveyed by the authors among respondents residing in Bangladesh and who also have an academic and corporate background, to investigate the potential impact of branding good corporate governance in the market place. High mean values for individual questions and overall section depict that communicating and branding good corporate governance to the stakeholders will not only boost the investors’ confidence but also increase the corporate brand equity, yielding both profitable and sustainable business environment.

Keywords: Brand equity, investors’ preference, good corporate governance, sustainable business environment.

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195 The Pedagogical Integration of Digital Technologies in Initial Teacher Training

Authors: Vânia Graça, Paula Quadros-Flores, Altina Ramos

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The use of Digital Technologies in teaching and learning processes is currently a reality, namely in initial teacher training. This study aims at knowing the digital reality of students in initial teacher training in order to improve training in the educational use of ICT and to promote digital technology integration strategies in an educational context. It is part of the IFITIC Project "Innovate with ICT in Initial Teacher Training to Promote Methodological Renewal in Pre-school Education and in the 1st and 2nd Basic Education Cycle" which involves the School of Education, Polytechnic of Porto and Institute of Education, University of Minho. The Project aims at rethinking educational practice with ICT in the initial training of future teachers in order to promote methodological innovation in Pre-school Education and in the 1st and 2nd Cycles of Basic Education. A qualitative methodology was used, in which a questionnaire survey was applied to teachers in initial training. For data analysis, the techniques of content analysis with the support of NVivo software were used. The results point to the following aspects: a) future teachers recognize that they have more technical knowledge about ICT than pedagogical knowledge. This result makes sense if we consider the objective of Basic Education, so that the gaps can be filled in the Master's Course by students who wish to follow the teaching; b) the respondents are aware that the integration of digital resources contributes positively to students' learning and to the life of children and young people, which also promotes preparation in life; c) to be a teacher in the digital age there is a need for the development of digital literacy, lifelong learning and the adoption of new ways of teaching how to learn. Thus, this study aims to contribute to a reflection on the teaching profession in the digital age.

Keywords: Digital technologies, initial teacher training, pedagogical use of ICT, skills.

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194 The Relationships between Market Orientation and Competitiveness of Companies in Banking Sector

Authors: P. Jangl, M. Mikuláštík

Abstract:

The objective of the paper is to measure and compare market orientation of Swiss and Czech banks, as well as examine statistically the degree of influence it has on competitiveness of the institutions. The analysis of market orientation is based on the collecting, analysis and correct interpretation of the data. Descriptive analysis of market orientation describe current situation. Research of relation of competitiveness and market orientation in the sector of big international banks is suggested with the expectation of existence of a strong relationship. Partially, the work served as reconfirmation of suitability of classic methodologies to measurement of banks’ market orientation.

Two types of data were gathered. Firstly, by measuring subjectively perceived market orientation of a company and secondly, by quantifying its competitiveness. All data were collected from a sample of small, mid-sized and large banks. We used numerical secondary character data from the international statistical financial Bureau Van Dijk’s BANKSCOPE database.

 Statistical analysis led to the following results. Assuming classical market orientation measures to be scientifically justified, Czech banks are statistically less market-oriented than Swiss banks. Secondly, among small Swiss banks, which are not broadly internationally active, small relationship exist between market orientation measures and market share based competitiveness measures. Thirdly, among all Swiss banks, a strong relationship exists between market orientation measures and market share based competitiveness measures. Above results imply existence of a strong relation of this measure in sector of big international banks. A strong statistical relationship has been proven to exist between market orientation measures and equity/total assets ratio in Switzerland.

Keywords: Market Orientation, Competitiveness, Marketing Strategy, Measurement of Market Orientation, Relation between Market Orientation and Competitiveness, Banking Sector.

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193 Korea and Japan Economic Relations: An Analysis through the World Trade Organization

Authors: Caroline S. Dutra, Tatiana C. Squeff

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It is well known that the history between South Korea and Japan influences their international relations; thus, also encompassing their economic relations. In this sense, it is impossible to analyze the latter without understanding the development of the former, which is known for episodes of hostility, like on Japanese colonization, but also had moments of cultural and trade interexchange. Indeed, since 1965, with the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries, their trade relations have improved, especially after both nations have signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Thereafter, with the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, another chapter of their diplomatic and economic relations have been inaugurated. Hence, bearing in mind this history between both nations, this research intends to examine their relations through the analysis of the WTO panels they have engaged in between each other, which are, in chronological order, “DS323: Japan – Import Quotas on Dried Laver and Seasoned Laver”, “DS336: Japan - Countervailing Duties on Dynamic Random Access Memories from Korea”, “DS495: Korea - Import Band, and Testing and Certification Requirements for Radionuclides”, “DS553: Korea - Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Stainless Steel Bars” and “DS571: Korea - Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels”. The objective of this case analysis is to point out what are the areas that are more conflictual between Japan and South Korea in regard to their economic relations so that it is possible to assert on their future (economic) relations and other possible outcomes. And in order to do so, bibliographic and documental research will be made, particularly those involving the WTO and the nations under consideration. Regarding the methods used, it is important to highlight that this is applied research in the field of international economic relations and international law, which follows a hypothetic-deductive model.

Keywords: International economic relations, Japan, South Korea, World Trade Organization.

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192 Social Work Practice to Labour Welfare: A Proposed Model of Field Work Practicum and Role of Social Worker in India

Authors: Naeem Ahmed

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Social work is a professional activity based on the approach of “helping people to help themselves” (Stroup). Social work education and practice both are based on humanitarian philosophy in which social workers try to increase the happiness of the society and to reduce the problems of society. Labour welfare is a specialised field of social work which especially focuses on welfare of organised and unorganised labour. In India labour is facing numerous problems in both organised and unorganised sectors because of ignorance, illiteracy, high rate of unemployment etc. In most of the Indian social work institutions we have this specialization with different names like Human Resource Management or Industrial Relation and Personnel Management or Industrial Relations and Labour Welfare or Industrial Social Work etc. Field work practice is integrated part of social work education curriculum in all specialised field. In India we have different field work practice models being followed in different institutions. The main objective of this paper is to prepare a universal field work practicum model in the field of labour welfare. This paper is exploratory in nature, researcher used personal experience and secondary data (model of field work practice in different institutions like Aligarh Muslim University, Pondicherry University, Central University of Karnataka, University of Lucknow, MJP Rohilkhand University Bareilly etc.) Researcher found that there is an immediate need to upgrade the curriculum or field work practice in this particular field, as more than 40 percent of total population engaged in either unorganised or organised sector (NSSO 2011-12) and they are not aware about their rights. In this way a social worker can play an important role in existing labour welfare facilities by making them aware.

Keywords: Fieldwork, labour welfare, organised labour, social work practice, unorganised labour.

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191 Female Work Force Participation and Women Empowerment in Haryana

Authors: Dinabandhu Mahata, Amit Kumar, Ambarish Kumar Rai

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India is known as a country of diversity regarding the social, cultural and wide geographical variations. In the north and north-west part of the country, the strong patriarchal norms and the male dominance based social structure are the important constructs. Patriarchal social setup adversely affects the women’s social and economic wellbeing and hence in that social structure women are considered as second level citizen. Work participation rate of women has directly linked to the development of society or household. Haryana is one of the developed states of India, still being ahead in economic prosperity, much lagged behind in gender-based equality and male dominance in all dimensions of life. The position of women in the Haryana is no better than the other states of India. Haryana state has the great difference among the male-female sex ratio which is a serious concern for social science research as a demographic problem for the state. Now women are requiring for their holistic empowerment and that will take care of them for an enabling process that must lead to their economic as well as social transformation. Hence, the objective of the paper is to address the role of sex ratio, women literacy and her work participation in the process of their empowerment with special attention to the gender perspective. The study used the data from Census of India from 1991 to 2011. This paper will examine the regional disparity of sex ratio, literacy rate and female work participation and the improvement of empowerment of women in the state of Haryana. This paper will suggest the idea for focusing much intensively on the issues of women empowerment through enhancement of her education, workforce participation and social participation with people participation and holistic approach.

Keywords: Sex ratio, literacy rate, workforce participation rate, women empowerment, Haryana.

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190 Energy Supply, Demand and Environmental Analysis – A Case Study of Indian Energy Scenario

Authors: I.V. Saradhi, G.G. Pandit, V.D. Puranik

Abstract:

Increasing concerns over climate change have limited the liberal usage of available energy technology options. India faces a formidable challenge to meet its energy needs and provide adequate energy of desired quality in various forms to users in sustainable manner at reasonable costs. In this paper, work carried out with an objective to study the role of various energy technology options under different scenarios namely base line scenario, high nuclear scenario, high renewable scenario, low growth and high growth rate scenario. The study has been carried out using Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) model which evaluates the alternative energy supply strategies with user defined constraints on fuel availability, environmental regulations etc. The projected electricity demand, at the end of study period i.e. 2035 is 500490 MWYr. The model predicted the share of the demand by Thermal: 428170 MWYr, Hydro: 40320 MWYr, Nuclear: 14000 MWYr, Wind: 18000 MWYr in the base line scenario. Coal remains the dominant fuel for production of electricity during the study period. However, the import dependency of coal increased during the study period. In baseline scenario the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions upto 2035 are about 11,000 million tones of CO2. In the scenario of high nuclear capacity the carbon dioxide emissions reduced by 10 % when nuclear energy share increased to 9 % compared to 3 % in baseline scenario. Similarly aggressive use of renewables reduces 4 % of carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, energy, electricity, message.

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189 Sensitivity Analysis of the Heat Exchanger Design in Net Power Oxy-Combustion Cycle for Carbon Capture

Authors: Hirbod Varasteh, Hamidreza Gohari Darabkhani

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The global warming and its impact on climate change is one of main challenges for current century. Global warming is mainly due to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) is known to be the major contributor to the GHG emission profile. Whilst the energy sector is the primary source for CO2 emission, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are believed to be the solution for controlling this emission. Oxyfuel combustion (Oxy-combustion) is one of the major technologies for capturing CO2 from power plants. For gas turbines, several Oxy-combustion power cycles (Oxyturbine cycles) have been investigated by means of thermodynamic analysis. NetPower cycle is one of the leading oxyturbine power cycles with almost full carbon capture capability from a natural gas fired power plant. In this manuscript, sensitivity analysis of the heat exchanger design in NetPower cycle is completed by means of process modelling. The heat capacity variation and supercritical CO2 with gaseous admixtures are considered for multi-zone analysis with Aspen Plus software. It is found that the heat exchanger design has a major role to increase the efficiency of NetPower cycle. The pinch-point analysis is done to extract the composite and grand composite curve for the heat exchanger. In this paper, relationship between the cycle efficiency and the minimum approach temperature (∆Tmin) of the heat exchanger has also been evaluated.  Increase in ∆Tmin causes a decrease in the temperature of the recycle flue gases (RFG) and an overall decrease in the required power for the recycled gas compressor. The main challenge in the design of heat exchangers in power plants is a tradeoff between the capital and operational costs. To achieve lower ∆Tmin, larger size of heat exchanger is required. This means a higher capital cost but leading to a better heat recovery and lower operational cost. To achieve this, ∆Tmin is selected from the minimum point in the diagrams of capital and operational costs. This study provides an insight into the NetPower Oxy-combustion cycle’s performance analysis and operational condition based on its heat exchanger design.

Keywords: Carbon capture and storage, oxy-combustion, netpower cycle, oxyturbine power cycles, heat exchanger design, supercritical carbon dioxide, pinch point analysis.

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188 Feasibility Study on the Use of HEMS for Thermal Comfort and Energy Saving in Japanese Residential Buildings

Authors: K. C. Rajan, H. B. Rijal, Kazui Yoshida, Masanori Shukuya

Abstract:

The electricity consumption in the Japanese household sector has increased with higher rate than that of other sectors. This may be because of aging and information oriented society that requires more electrical appliances to make the life better and easier, under this circumstances, energy saving is one of the essential necessity in Japanese society. To understand the way of energy use and demand response of the residential occupants, it is important to understand the structure of energy used. Home Energy Management System (HEMS) may be used for understanding the pattern and the structure of energy used. HEMS is a visualization system of the energy usage by connecting the electrical equipment in the home and thereby automatically control the energy use in each device, so that the energy saving is achieved. Therefore, the HEMS can provide with the easiest way to understand the structure of energy use. The HEMS has entered the mainstream of the Japanese market. The objective of this study is to understand the pattern of energy saving and cost saving in different regions including Japan during HEMS use. To observe thermal comfort level of HEMS managed residential buildings in Japan, the field survey was made and altogether, 1534 votes from 37 occupants related to thermal comfort, occupants’ behaviors and clothing insulation were collected and analyzed. According to the result obtained, approximately 17.9% energy saving and 8.9% cost saving is possible if HEMS is applied effectively. We found the thermal sensation and overall comfort level of the occupants is high in the studied buildings. The occupants residing in those HEMS buildings are satisfied with the thermal environment and they have accepted it. Our study concluded that the significant reduction in Japanese residential energy use can be achieved by the proper utilization of the HEMS. Better thermal comfort is also possible with the use of HEMS if energy use is managed in a rationally effective manner.

Keywords: Energy reduction, thermal comfort, HEMS market, thermal environment.

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187 Computational Method for Annotation of Protein Sequence According to Gene Ontology Terms

Authors: Razib M. Othman, Safaai Deris, Rosli M. Illias

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Annotation of a protein sequence is pivotal for the understanding of its function. Accuracy of manual annotation provided by curators is still questionable by having lesser evidence strength and yet a hard task and time consuming. A number of computational methods including tools have been developed to tackle this challenging task. However, they require high-cost hardware, are difficult to be setup by the bioscientists, or depend on time intensive and blind sequence similarity search like Basic Local Alignment Search Tool. This paper introduces a new method of assigning highly correlated Gene Ontology terms of annotated protein sequences to partially annotated or newly discovered protein sequences. This method is fully based on Gene Ontology data and annotations. Two problems had been identified to achieve this method. The first problem relates to splitting the single monolithic Gene Ontology RDF/XML file into a set of smaller files that can be easy to assess and process. Thus, these files can be enriched with protein sequences and Inferred from Electronic Annotation evidence associations. The second problem involves searching for a set of semantically similar Gene Ontology terms to a given query. The details of macro and micro problems involved and their solutions including objective of this study are described. This paper also describes the protein sequence annotation and the Gene Ontology. The methodology of this study and Gene Ontology based protein sequence annotation tool namely extended UTMGO is presented. Furthermore, its basic version which is a Gene Ontology browser that is based on semantic similarity search is also introduced.

Keywords: automatic clustering, bioinformatics tool, gene ontology, protein sequence annotation, semantic similarity search

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186 A Proposal of a Method to Measure the Satisfaction Indicator of the Local Community Concerning Tourism: A Case Study of Jalapão State Park, Tocantins

Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Mary L. G. S. Senna, Afonso R. Aquino

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Tourists bring many benefits to a local community, encouraging it to be involved in that activity; however, it may also have detrimental effects like garbage, noise, violence, external culture and the damaging of the natural environment among others, which may promote community dissatisfaction. The contact between the tourist and the local community is a concern, especially when the community is located near protected areas. In this case, the community must know the tourist destination well, so it can collaborate in the tourism development without harming the environment. In this context, the present article aims to demonstrate the results of a research study conducted as part of a doctorate program in Sciences from the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It had as an objective to elaborate a methodology proposal to measure the local community satisfaction indicator, with applicability on a case study in the Mateiros community located in the surrounding area of the Parque Estadual do Jalapão –PEJ conservation unit in the state of Tocantins, Brazil. This is a study of an interdisciplinary nature that had the deductive method as its guide. The indicator result is going to be presented in this study. It pointed out as negative factors: there is no involvement between the local community and the tourism sector, and there is also dissatisfaction with regard to the town’s basic services. The study showed as positive the local community knowledge about the various attractions in the surrounding area and that the group recognizes the importance of the tourism for the town and life. Concerning the methodology that was used, the results showed that it can collaborate in seeking actions of improvement and involvement of the community in the planning and development of the local tourism. It comes out as an efficient analysis tool, thus enabling the perceiving of the local community point of view.

Keywords: Satisfaction indicator, tourism, community, Jalapão.

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185 Modelling of a Biomechanical Vertebral System for Seat Ejection in Aircrafts Using Lumped Mass Approach

Authors: R. Unnikrishnan, K. Shankar

Abstract:

In the case of high-speed fighter aircrafts, seat ejection is designed mainly for the safety of the pilot in case of an emergency. Strong windblast due to the high velocity of flight is one main difficulty in clearing the tail of the aircraft. Excessive G-forces generated, immobilizes the pilot from escape. In most of the cases, seats are ejected out of the aircrafts by explosives or by rocket motors attached to the bottom of the seat. Ejection forces are primarily in the vertical direction with the objective of attaining the maximum possible velocity in a specified period of time. The safe ejection parameters are studied to estimate the critical time of ejection for various geometries and velocities of flight. An equivalent analytical 2-dimensional biomechanical model of the human spine has been modelled consisting of vertebrae and intervertebral discs with a lumped mass approach. The 24 vertebrae, which consists of the cervical, thoracic and lumbar regions, in addition to the head mass and the pelvis has been designed as 26 rigid structures and the intervertebral discs are assumed as 25 flexible joint structures. The rigid structures are modelled as mass elements and the flexible joints as spring and damper elements. Here, the motions are restricted only in the mid-sagittal plane to form a 26 degree of freedom system. The equations of motions are derived for translational movement of the spinal column. An ejection force with a linearly increasing acceleration profile is applied as vertical base excitation on to the pelvis. The dynamic vibrational response of each vertebra in time-domain is estimated.

Keywords: Biomechanical model, lumped mass, seat ejection, vibrational response.

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184 Fungi Associated with Decline of Kikar (Acacia nilotica) and Red River Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in Faisalabad

Authors: I. Ahmad, A. Hannan, S. Ahmad, M. Asif, M. F. Nawaz, M. A. Tanvir, M. F. Azhar

Abstract:

During this research, a comprehensive survey of tree growing areas of Faisalabad district of Pakistan was conducted to observe the symptoms, spectrum, occurrence and severity of A. nilotica and E. camaldulensis decline. Objective of current research was to investigate specific fungal pathogens involved in decline of A. nilotica and E. camaldulensis. For this purpose, infected roots, bark, neck portion, stem, branches, leaves and infected soils were collected to identify associated fungi. Potato dextrose agar (PDA) and Czepak dox agar media were used for isolations. Identification of isolated fungi was done microscopically and different fungi were identified. During survey of urban locations of Faisalabad, disease incidence on Kikar and Eucalyptus was recorded as 3.9-7.9% and 2.6-7.1% respectively. Survey of Agroforest zones of Faisalabad revealed decline incidence on kikar 7.5% from Sargodha road while on Satiana and Jhang road it was not planted. In eucalyptus trees, 4%, 8% and 0% disease incidence was observed on Jhang road, Sargodha road and Satiana road respectively. The maximum fungus isolated from the kikar tree was Drechslera australiensis (5.00%) from the stem part. Aspergillus flavus also gave the maximum value of (3.05%) from the bark. Alternaria alternata gave the maximum value of (2.05%) from leaves. Rhizopus and Mucor spp. were recorded minimum as compared to the Drechslera, Alternaria and Aspergillus. The maximum fungus isolated from the Eucalyptus tree was Armillaria luteobubalina (5.00%) from the stem part. The other fungi isolated were Macrophamina phaseolina and A. niger.

Keywords: Decline, frequency of mycoflora, A. nilotica, E. camaldulensis, Drechslera australiensis, Armillaria luteobubalina.

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183 Three Dimensional Finite Element Analysis of Functionally Graded Radiation Shielding Nanoengineered Sandwich Composites

Authors: Nasim Abuali Galehdari, Thomas J. Ryan, Ajit D. Kelkar

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In recent years, nanotechnology has played an important role in the design of an efficient radiation shielding polymeric composites. It is well known that, high loading of nanomaterials with radiation absorption properties can enhance the radiation attenuation efficiency of shielding structures. However, due to difficulties in dispersion of nanomaterials into polymer matrices, there has been a limitation in higher loading percentages of nanoparticles in the polymer matrix. Therefore, the objective of the present work is to provide a methodology to fabricate and then to characterize the functionally graded radiation shielding structures, which can provide an efficient radiation absorption property along with good structural integrity. Sandwich structures composed of Ultra High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) fabric as face sheets and functionally graded epoxy nanocomposite as core material were fabricated. A method to fabricate a functionally graded core panel with controllable gradient dispersion of nanoparticles is discussed. In order to optimize the design of functionally graded sandwich composites and to analyze the stress distribution throughout the sandwich composite thickness, a finite element method was used. The sandwich panels were discretized using 3-Dimensional 8 nodded brick elements. Classical laminate analysis in conjunction with simplified micromechanics equations were used to obtain the properties of the face sheets. The presented finite element model would provide insight into deformation and damage mechanics of the functionally graded sandwich composites from the structural point of view.

Keywords: Nanotechnology, functionally graded material, radiation shielding, sandwich composites, finite element method.

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182 Exploring Additional Intention Predictors within Dietary Behavior among Type 2 Diabetes

Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya

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Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.

Keywords: Theory, intention, predictors, mixed methods design.

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181 Comparative Correlation Investigation of Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Soils of Different Land Use: Sources Evaluation Perspective

Authors: O. Onoriode Emoyan, E. Eyitemi Akporhonor, Charles Otobrise

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Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are formed mainly because of incomplete combustion of organic materials during industrial, domestic activities or natural occurrence. Their toxicity and contamination of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem have been established. However, with limited validity index, previous research has focused on PAHs isomer pair ratios of variable physicochemical properties in source identification. The objective of this investigation was to determine the empirical validity of Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) and Cluster Analysis (CA) in PAHs source identification along soil samples of different land uses. Therefore, 16 PAHs grouped, as Endocrine Disruption Substances (EDSs) were determined in 10 sample stations in top and sub soils seasonally. PAHs was determined the use of Varian 300 gas chromatograph interfaced with flame ionization detector. Instruments and reagents used are of standard and chromatographic grades respectively. PCC and CA results showed that the classification of PAHs along pyrolitic and petrogenic organics used in source signature is about the predominance PAHs in environmental matrix. Therefore, the distribution of PAHs in the studied stations revealed the presence of trace quantities of the vast majority of the sixteen PAHs, which may ultimately inhabit the actual source signature authentication. Therefore, factors to be considered when evaluating possible sources of PAHs could be; type and extent of bacterial metabolism, transformation products/substrates, and environmental factors such as salinity, pH, oxygen concentration, nutrients, light intensity, temperature, co-substrates, and environmental medium are hereby recommended as factors to be considered when evaluating possible sources of PAHs.

Keywords: Comparative correlation, kinetically, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, thermodynamically- favored PAHs, sources evaluation.

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180 Assets Integrity Management in Oil and Gas Production Facilities Through Corrosion Mitigation and Inspection Strategy: A Case Study of Sarir Oilfield

Authors: Iftikhar Ahmad, Youssef Elkezza

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Sarir oilfield is in North Africa. It has facilities of oil and gas production. The assets of the Sarir oilfield can be divided into five following categories, namely: (i) Well bore and wellheads; (ii) Vessels such as separators, desalters, and gas processing facilities; (iii) Pipelines including all flow lines, trunk lines, and shipping lines; (iv) storage tanks; (v) Other assets such as turbines and compressors, etc. The nature of the petroleum industry recognizes the potential human, environmental and financial consequences that can result from failing to maintain the integrity of wellheads, vessels, tanks, pipelines, and other assets. The importance of effective asset integrity management increases as the industry infrastructure continues to age. The primary objective of assets integrity management (AIM) is to maintain assets in a fit-for-service condition while extending their remaining life in the most reliable, safe, and cost-effective manner. Corrosion management is one of the important aspects of successful asset integrity management. It covers corrosion mitigation, monitoring, inspection, and risk evaluation. External corrosion on pipelines, well bores, buried assets, and bottoms of tanks is controlled with a combination of coatings by cathodic protection, while the external corrosion on surface equipment, wellheads, and storage tanks is controlled by coatings. The periodic cleaning of the pipeline by pigging helps in the prevention of internal corrosion. Further, internal corrosion of pipelines is prevented by chemical treatment and controlled operations. This paper describes the integrity management system used in the Sarir oil field for its oil and gas production facilities based on standard practices of corrosion mitigation and inspection.

Keywords: Assets integrity management, corrosion prevention in oilfield assets, corrosion management in oilfield, corrosion prevention and inspection activities.

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179 Transmission Line Congestion Management Using Hybrid Fish-Bee Algorithm with Unified Power Flow Controller

Authors: P. Valsalal, S. Thangalakshmi

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There is a widespread changeover in the electrical power industry universally from old-style monopolistic outline towards a horizontally distributed competitive structure to come across the demand of rising consumption. When the transmission lines of derestricted system are incapable to oblige the entire service needs, the lines are overloaded or congested. The governor between customer and power producer is nominated as Independent System Operator (ISO) to lessen the congestion without obstructing transmission line restrictions. Among the existing approaches for congestion management, the frequently used approaches are reorganizing the generation and load curbing. There is a boundary for reorganizing the generators, and further loads may not be supplemented with the prevailing resources unless more private power producers are added in the system by considerably raising the cost. Hence, congestion is relaxed by appropriate Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) devices which boost the existing transfer capacity of transmission lines. The FACTs device, namely, Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) is preferred, and the correct placement of UPFC is more vital and should be positioned in the highly congested line. Hence, the weak line is identified by using power flow performance index with the new objective function with proposed hybrid Fish – Bee algorithm. Further, the location of UPFC at appropriate line reduces the branch loading and minimizes the voltage deviation. The power transfer capacity of lines is determined with and without UPFC in the identified congested line of IEEE 30 bus structure and the simulated results are compared with prevailing algorithms. It is observed that the transfer capacity of existing line is increased with the presented algorithm and thus alleviating the congestion.

Keywords: Available line transfer capability, congestion management, FACTS device, hybrid fish-bee algorithm, ISO, UPFC.

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178 Experimental Evaluation of 10 Ecotypes of Toxic and Non-Toxic Jatropha curcas as Raw Material to Produce Biodiesel in Morelos State, Mexico

Authors: Guadalupe Pérez, Jorge Islas, Mirna Guevara, Raúl Suárez

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Jatropha curcas is a perennial oleaginous plant that is currently considered an energy crop with high potential as an environmentally sustainable biofuel. During the last decades, research in biofuels has grown in tropical and subtropical regions in Latin America. However, as far we know, there are no reports on the growth and yield patterns of Jatropha curcas under the specific agro climatic scenarios of the State of Morelos, Mexico. This study presents the results of 52 months monitoring of 10 toxic and non-toxic ecotypes of Jatropha curcas (E1M, E2M, E3M, E4M, E5M, E6O, E7O, E8O, E9C, E10C) in an experimental plantation with minimum watering and fertilization resources. The main objective is to identify the ecotypes with the highest potential as biodiesel raw material in the select region, by developing experimental information. Specifically, we monitored biophysical and growth parameters, including plant survival and seed production (at the end of month 52), to study the performance of each ecotype and to establish differences among the variables of morphological growth, net seed oil content, and toxicity. To analyze the morphological growth, a statistical approach to the biophysical parameters was used; the net seed oil content -80 to 192 kg/ha- was estimated with the first harvest; and the toxicity was evaluated by examining the phorbol ester concentration (µg/L) in the oil extracted from the seeds. The comparison and selection of ecotypes was performed through a methodology developed based on the normalization of results. We identified four outstanding ecotypes (E1M, E2M, E3M, and E4M) that can be used to establish Jatropha curcas as energy crops in the state of Morelos for feasible agro-industrial production of biodiesel and other products related to the use of biomass.

Keywords: Biodiesel production, Jatropha curcas, morphologic growth, toxic and non-toxic ecotypes, seed oil content.

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177 Effect of Fire Retardant Painting Product on Smoke Optical Density of Burning Natural Wood Samples

Authors: Abdullah N. Olimat, Ahmad S. Awad, Faisal M. AL-Ghathian

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Natural wood is used in many applications in Jordan such as furniture, partitions constructions, and cupboards. Experimental work for smoke produced by the combustion of certain wood samples was studied. Smoke generated from burning of natural wood, is considered as a major cause of death in furniture fires. The critical parameter for life safety in fires is the available time for escape, so the visual obscuration due to smoke release during fire is taken into consideration. The effect of smoke, produced by burning of wood, depends on the amount of smoke released in case of fire. The amount of smoke production, apparently, affects the time available for the occupants to escape. To achieve the protection of life of building occupants during fire growth, fire retardant painting products are tested. The tested samples of natural wood include Beech, Ash, Beech Pine, and white Beech Pine. A smoke density chamber manufactured by fire testing technology has been used to perform measurement of smoke properties. The procedure of test was carried out according to the ISO-5659. A nonflammable vertical radiant heat flux of 25 kW/m2 is exposed to the wood samples in a horizontal orientation. The main objective of the current study is to carry out the experimental tests for samples of natural woods to evaluate the capability to escape in case of fire and the fire safety requirements. Specific optical density, transmittance, thermal conductivity, and mass loss are main measured parameters. Also, comparisons between samples with paint and with no paint are carried out between the selected samples of woods.

Keywords: Optical density, specific optical density, transmittance, visibility.

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176 Factors Affecting Students’ Performance in Chemistry: Case Study in Zanzibar Secondary Schools

Authors: Ahmed A. Hassan, Hassan I. Ali, Abdallah A. Salum, Asia M. Kassim, Yussuf N. Elmoge, Ali A. Amour

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of chemistry in Zanzibar Secondary Schools. It was conducted in all regions of Zanzibar in public and private secondary schools and Ministry of Education officials. The objective of the study included finding out causes of poor performance in chemistry. Views, opinions, and suggestions of teachers and students to improve performance of chemistry and a descriptive survey was adopted for the study. 45 teachers and 200 students were randomly sampled from 15 secondary schools in Zanzibar and ten Ministry of Education officials were purposively sampled for the study. Questionnaires and open-ended interview schedules were the main instruments used in obtaining relevant data from respondents. Data collected from the field was analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitative analysis involved content analysis of the responses obtained through interviews and quantitative analysis involved generation of tables, frequencies and percentages. The results revealed that there were shortages of trained teachers, lack of proficiency in the language of instruction (English) and major facilities like laboratories and books. These led to poor delivery of subject matter and consequently resulting in poor performance. Based on the findings, this study recommends that provision of trained, competent, and effective teachers as vital aspects to be considered. Government through Ministry of Education should put effort to stalk libraries and equip laboratories with modern books and instruments. In addition, the ministry should strengthen teachers’ training and encourage use of instructional media in class and make conducive learning environment to both teachers and students.

Keywords: Zanzibar, secondary schools, chemistry, science, performance and factors.

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175 Heat-treated or Raw Sunflower Seeds in Lactating Dairy Cows Diets: Effects on Milk Fatty Acids Profile and Milk Production

Authors: H. Mansoori, A. Aghazadeh, K. Nazeradl

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The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of dietary supplementation with raw or heat-treated sunflower oil seed with two levels of 7.5% or 15% on unsaturated fatty acids in milk fat and performances of high-yielding lactating cows. Twenty early lactating Holstein cows were used in a complete randomized design. Treatments included: 1) CON, control (without sunflower oil seed). 2) LS-UT, 7.5% raw sunflower oil seed. 3) LS-HT, 7.5% heat-treated sunflower oil seed. 4) HS-UT, 15% raw sunflower oil seed. 5) HS-HT, 15% heat-treated sunflower oil seed. Experimental period lasted for 4 wk, with first 2 wk used for adaptation to the diets. Supplementation with 7.5% raw sunflower seed (LS-UT) tended to decrease milk yield, with 28.37 kg/d compared with the control (34.75 kg/d). Milk fat percentage was increased with the HS-UT treatment that obtained 3.71% compared with CON that was 3.39% and without significant different. Milk protein percent was decreased high level sunflower oil seed treatments (15%) with 3.18% whereas CON treatment is caused 3.40% protein. The cows fed added low sunflower heat-treated (LS-HT) produced milk with the highest content of total unsaturated fatty acid with 32.59 g/100g of milk fat compared with the HS-UT with 23.59 g/100g of milk fat. Content of C18 unsaturated fatty acids in milk fat increased from 21.68 g/100g of fat in the HS-UT to 22.50, 23.98, 27.39 and 30.30 g/100g of fat from the cow fed HS-HT, CON, LS-UT and LS-HT treatments, respectively. C18:2 isomers of fatty acid in milk were greater by LSHT supplementation with significant effect (P < 0.05). Total of C18 unsaturated fatty acids content was significantly higher in milk of animal fed added low heat-treated sunflower (7.5%) than those fed with high sunflower. In all, results of this study showed that diet cow's supplementation with sunflower oil seed tended to reduce milk production of lactating cows but can improve C18 UFA (Unsaturated Fatty Acid) content in milk fat. 7.5% level of sunflower oil seed that heated seemed to be the optimal source to increase UFA production.

Keywords: Fatty acid profile, milk production, sunflower seed.

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174 The Conception of Implementation of Vision for European Forensic Science 2020 in Lithuania

Authors: Eglė Bilevičiūtė, Vidmantas Egidijus Kurapka, Snieguolė Matulienė, Sigutė Stankevičiūtė

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The Council of European Union (EU Council) has stressed on several occasions the need for a concerted, comprehensive and effective solution to delinquency problems in EU communities. In the context of establishing a European Forensic Science Area and the development of forensic science infrastructure in Europe, EU Council believes that forensic science can significantly contribute to the efficiency of law enforcement, crime prevention and combating crimes. Lithuanian scientists have consolidated to implement a project named “Conception of the vision for European Forensic Science 2020 implementation in Lithuania” (the project is funded for the period of 1 March 2014 - 31 December 2016) with the objective to create a conception of implementation of the vision for European Forensic Science 2020 in Lithuania by 1) evaluating the current status of Lithuania’s forensic system and opportunities for its improvement; 2) analysing achievements and knowledge in investigation of crimes listed in conclusions of EU Council on the vision for European Forensic Science 2020 including creation of a European Forensic Science Area and the development of forensic science infrastructure in Europe: trafficking in human beings, organised crime and terrorism; 3) analysing conceptions of criminalistics, which differ in different EU member states due to the variety of forensic schools, and finding means for their harmonization. Apart from the conception of implementation of the vision for European Forensic Science 2020 in Lithuania, the Project is expected to suggest provisions that will be relevant to other EU countries as well. Consequently, the presented conception of implementation of vision for European Forensic Science 2020 in Lithuania could initiate a project for a common vision of European Forensic Science and contribute to the development of the EU as an area of freedom, security and justice. The article presents main ideas of the project of the conception of the vision for European Forensic Science 2020 of EU Council and analyses its legal background, as well as prospects of and challenges for its implementation in Lithuania and the EU.

Keywords: EUROVIFOR, standardization, Vision for European Forensic Science 2020.

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173 Quantitative Analysis of Nutrient Inflow from River and Groundwater to Imazu Bay in Fukuoka, Japan

Authors: Keisuke Konishi, Yoshinari Hiroshiro, Kento Terashima, Atsushi Tsutsumi

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Imazu Bay plays an important role for endangered species such as horseshoe crabs and black-faced spoonbills that stay in the bay for spawning or the passing of winter. However, this bay is semi-enclosed with slow water exchange, which could lead to eutrophication under the condition of excess nutrient inflow to the bay. Therefore, quantification of nutrient inflow is of great importance. Generally, analysis of nutrient inflow to the bays takes into consideration nutrient inflow from only the river, but that from groundwater should not be ignored for more accurate results. The main objective of this study is to estimate the amounts of nutrient inflow from river and groundwater to Imazu Bay by analyzing water budget in Zuibaiji River Basin and loads of T-N, T-P, NO3-N and NH4-N. The water budget computation in the basin is performed using groundwater recharge model and quasi three-dimensional two-phase groundwater flow model, and the multiplication of the measured amount of nutrient inflow with the computed discharge gives the total amount of nutrient inflow to the bay. In addition, in order to evaluate nutrient inflow to the bay, the result is compared with nutrient inflow from geologically similar river basins. The result shows that the discharge is 3.50×107 m3/year from the river and 1.04×107 m3/year from groundwater. The submarine groundwater discharge accounts for approximately 23 % of the total discharge, which is large compared to the other river basins. It is also revealed that the total nutrient inflow is not particularly large. The sum of NO3-N and NH4-N loadings from groundwater is less than 10 % of that from the river because of denitrification in groundwater. The Shin Seibu Sewage Treatment Plant located below the observation points discharges treated water of 15,400 m3/day and plans to increase it. However, the loads of T-N and T-P from the treatment plant are 3.9 mg/L and 0.19 mg/L, so that it does not contribute a lot to eutrophication.

Keywords: Eutrophication, groundwater recharge model, nutrient inflow, quasi three-dimensional two-phase groundwater flow model, Submarine groundwater discharge.

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172 Effects of Corruption and Logistics Performance Inefficiencies on Container Throughput: The Latin America Case

Authors: Fernando Seabra, Giulia P. Flores, Karolina C. Gomes

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Trade liberalizations measures, as import tariff cuts, are not a sufficient trigger for trade growth. Given that price margins are narrow, traders and cargo operators tend to opt out of markets where the process of goods clearance is slow and costly. Excess paperwork and slow customs dispatch not only lead to institutional breakdowns and corruption but also to increasing transaction cost and trade constraints. The objective of this paper is, therefore, two-fold: First, to evaluate the relationship between institutional and infrastructural performance indexes and trade growth in container throughput; and, second, to investigate the causes for differences in container demurrage and detention fees in Latin American countries (using other emerging countries as benchmarking). The analysis is focused on manufactured goods, typically transported by containers. Institutional and infrastructure bottlenecks and, therefore, the country logistics efficiency – measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI, World Bank-WB) – are compared with other indexes, such as the Doing Business index (WB) and the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International). The main results based on the comparison between Latin American countries and the others emerging countries point out in that the growth in containers trade is directly related to LPI performance. It has also been found that the main hypothesis is valid as aspects that more specifically identify trade facilitation and corruption are significant drivers of logistics performance. The exam of port efficiency (demurrage and detention fees) has demonstrated that not necessarily higher level of efficiency is related to lower charges; however, reductions in fees have been more significant within non-Latin American emerging countries.

Keywords: Container throughput, logistics performance, corruption, Latin America.

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171 Social Media: The Major Trigger of Online and Offline Political Activism

Authors: Chan Eang Teng, Tang Mui Joo

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With the viral factor on social media, the sense of persuasion is generated by repetition and popularity. When users’ interest is captured, political awareness increases to spark political enthusiasm, but, the level of user’s political participation and political attitude of those active users is still questionable. An online survey on 250 youth and in-depth interview on two politicians are conducted to answer the main question in this paper. The result shows that Facebook significantly increases political awareness among youths. Social media may not be the major trigger to political activism among youths as most respondents opined that they would still vote without Facebook. Other factors could be political campaigning, political climate, age, peer pressure or others. Finding also shows that majority of respondents did not participate in online political debates or political groups. Many also wondered if the social media was the main power switch that triggers the political influx among young voters. The research finding is significant to understand how the new media, Facebook, has reshaped the political landscape in Malaysia, creating the Social Media Election that changed the rules of the political game. However, research finding does not support the ideal notion that the social media is the major trigger to youth’s political activism. This research outcome has exposed the flaws of the Social Media Election. It has revealed the less optimistic side of youth political activism. Unfortunately, results fall short of the idealistic belief that the social media have given rise to political activism among youths in the 13th General Election in Malaysia. The research outcome also highlights an important lesson for the democratic discourse of Malaysia which is making informed and educated decisions takes more commitment, proactive and objective attitude.

Keywords: Social media, political participation, political activism, democracy, political communication.

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170 Association of Smoking with Chest Radiographic and Lung Function Findings in Retired Bauxite Mining Workers

Authors: L. R. Ferreira, R. C. G. Bianchi, L. C.R. Ferreira, C. M. Galhardi, E. P. Baciuk, L. H. Oliveira

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Inhalation hazards are associated with potentially injurious exposure and increased risk for lung diseases, within the bauxite mining industry, especially for the smelter workers. Smoking is related to decreased lung function and leads to chronic lung diseases. This study had the objective to evaluate whether smoking is related to functional and radiographic respiratory changes in retired bauxite mining workers. Methods: This was a retrospective and cross-sectional study involving the analysis of database information of 140 retired bauxite mining workers from Poços de Caldas-MG evaluated at Worker’s Health Reference Center and at the Social Security Brazilian National Institute, from July 1st, 2015 until June 30th, 2016. The workers were divided into three groups: non-smokers (n = 47), ex-smokers (n = 46), and smokers (n = 47). The data included: age, gender, spirometry results, and the presence or not of pulmonary pleural and/or parenchymal changes in chest radiographs. Chi-Squared test was used (p < 0,05). Results: In the smokers’ group, 83% of spirometry tests and 64% of chest x-rays were altered. In the non-smokers’ group, 19% of spirometry tests and 13% of chest x-rays were altered. In the ex-smokers’ group, 35% of spirometry tests and 30% of chest x-rays were altered. Most of the results were statistically significant. Results demonstrated a significant difference between smokers’ and non-smokers’ groups in regard to spirometric and radiographic pulmonary alterations. Ex-smokers’ and non-smokers’ group demonstrated better results when compared to the smokers’ group in relation to altered spirometry and radiograph findings. These data may contribute to planning strategies to enhance smoking cessation programs within the bauxite mining industry.

Keywords: Bauxite mining, spirometry, chest radiography, smoking.

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169 Concentrated Solar Power Utilization in Space Vehicles Propulsion and Power Generation

Authors: Maged A. Mossallam

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The objective from this paper is to design a solar thermal engine for space vehicles orbital control and electricity generation. A computational model is developed for the prediction of the solar thermal engine performance for different design parameters and conditions in order to enhance the engine efficiency. The engine is divided into two main subsystems. First, the concentrator dish which receives solar energy from the sun and reflects them to the cavity receiver. The second one is the cavity receiver which receives the heat flux reflected from the concentrator and transfers heat to the fluid passing over. Other subsystems depend on the application required from the engine. For thrust application, a nozzle is introduced to the system for the fluid to expand and produce thrust. Hydrogen is preferred as a working fluid in the thruster application. Results model developed is used to determine the thrust for a concentrator dish 4 meters in diameter (provides 10 kW of energy), focusing solar energy to a 10 cm aperture diameter cavity receiver. The cavity receiver outer length is 50 cm and the internal cavity is 47 cm in length. The suggested design material of the internal cavity is tungsten to withstand high temperature. The thermal model and analysis shows that the hydrogen temperature at the plenum reaches 2000oK after about 250 seconds for hot start operation for a flow rate of 0.1 g/sec.Using solar thermal engine as an electricity generation device on earth is also discussed. In this case a compressor and turbine are used to convert the heat gained by the working fluid (air) into mechanical power. This mechanical power can be converted into electrical power by using a generator.

Keywords: Concentrated Solar Energy, Orbital Control, Power Generation, Solar Thermal Engine, Space Vehicles Propulsion

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168 Decision Support System for Hospital Selection in Emergency Medical Services: A Discrete Event Simulation Approach

Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.

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