Search results for: axial behavior test.
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 4848

Search results for: axial behavior test.

288 Impact of Climate Shift on Rainfall and Temperature Trend in Eastern Ganga Canal Command

Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

Abstract:

Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: Climate shift, Rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope estimator, Eastern Ganga Canal command.

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287 Robotics and Embedded Systems Applied to the Buried Pipeline Inspection

Authors: Robson C. Santos, Julio C. P. Ribeiro, Iorran M. de Castro, Luan C. F. Rodrigues, Sandro R. L. Silva, Diego M. Quesada

Abstract:

The work aims to develop a robot in the form of autonomous vehicle to detect, inspection and mapping of underground pipelines through the ATmega328 Arduino platform. Hardware prototyping is very similar to C / C ++ language that facilitates its use in robotics open source, resembles PLC used in large industrial processes. The robot will traverse the surface independently of direct human action, in order to automate the process of detecting buried pipes, guided by electromagnetic induction. The induction comes from coils that send the signal to the Arduino microcontroller contained in that will make the difference in intensity and the treatment of the information, and then this determines actions to electrical components such as relays and motors, allowing the prototype to move on the surface and getting the necessary information. This change of direction is performed by a stepper motor with a servo motor. The robot was developed by electrical and electronic assemblies that allowed test your application. The assembly is made up of metal detector coils, circuit boards and microprocessor, which interconnected circuits previously developed can determine, process control and mechanical actions for a robot (autonomous car) that will make the detection and mapping of buried pipelines plates. This type of prototype can prevent and identifies possible landslides and they can prevent the buried pipelines suffer an external pressure on the walls with the possibility of oil leakage and thus pollute the environment.

Keywords: Robotic, metal detector, embedded system, pipeline.

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286 An Intelligent Water Drop Algorithm for Solving Economic Load Dispatch Problem

Authors: S. Rao Rayapudi

Abstract:

Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) is a method of determining the most efficient, low-cost and reliable operation of a power system by dispatching available electricity generation resources to supply load on the system. The primary objective of economic dispatch is to minimize total cost of generation while honoring operational constraints of available generation resources. In this paper an intelligent water drop (IWD) algorithm has been proposed to solve ELD problem with an objective of minimizing the total cost of generation. Intelligent water drop algorithm is a swarm-based natureinspired optimization algorithm, which has been inspired from natural rivers. A natural river often finds good paths among lots of possible paths in its ways from source to destination and finally find almost optimal path to their destination. These ideas are embedded into the proposed algorithm for solving economic load dispatch problem. The main advantage of the proposed technique is easy is implement and capable of finding feasible near global optimal solution with less computational effort. In order to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, it has been tested on 6-unit and 20-unit test systems with incremental fuel cost functions taking into account the valve point-point loading effects. Numerical results shows that the proposed method has good convergence property and better in quality of solution than other algorithms reported in recent literature.

Keywords: Economic load dispatch, Transmission loss, Optimization, Valve point loading, Intelligent Water Drop Algorithm.

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285 Metallurgy of Friction Welding of Porous Stainless Steel-Solid Iron Billets

Authors: S. D. El Wakil

Abstract:

The research work reported here was aimed at investigating the feasibility of joining high-porosity stainless steel discs and wrought iron bars by friction welding. The sound friction-welded joints were then subjected to a metallurgical investigation and an analysis of failure resulting from tensile loading. Discs having 50 mm diameter and 10 mm thickness were produced by loose sintering of stainless steel powder at a temperature of 1350 oC in an argon atmosphere for one hour. Minor machining was then carried out to control the dimensions of the discs, and the density of each disc could then be determined. The level of porosity was calculated and was found to be about 40% in all of those discs. Solid wrought iron bars were also machined to facilitate tensile testing of the joints produced by friction welding. Using our previously gained experience, the porous stainless steel disc and the wrought iron tube were successfully friction welded. SEM was employed to examine the fracture surface after a tensile test of the joint in order to determine the type of failure. It revealed that the failure did not occur in the joint, but rather in the in the porous metal in the area adjacent to the joint. The load carrying capacity was actually determined by the strength of the porous metal and not by that of the welded joint. Macroscopic and microscopic metallographic examinations were also performed and showed that the welded joint involved a dense heat-affected zone where the porous metal underwent densification at elevated temperature, explaining and supporting the findings of the SEM study.

Keywords: Fracture of friction-welded joints, metallurgy of friction welding, solid-porous structures, strength of joint.

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284 Multi-Agent Systems Applied in the Modeling and Simulation of Biological Problems: A Case Study in Protein Folding

Authors: Pedro Pablo González Pérez, Hiram I. Beltrán, Arturo Rojo-Domínguez, Máximo EduardoSánchez Gutiérrez

Abstract:

Multi-agent system approach has proven to be an effective and appropriate abstraction level to construct whole models of a diversity of biological problems, integrating aspects which can be found both in "micro" and "macro" approaches when modeling this type of phenomena. Taking into account these considerations, this paper presents the important computational characteristics to be gathered into a novel bioinformatics framework built upon a multiagent architecture. The version of the tool presented herein allows studying and exploring complex problems belonging principally to structural biology, such as protein folding. The bioinformatics framework is used as a virtual laboratory to explore a minimalist model of protein folding as a test case. In order to show the laboratory concept of the platform as well as its flexibility and adaptability, we studied the folding of two particular sequences, one of 45-mer and another of 64-mer, both described by an HP model (only hydrophobic and polar residues) and coarse grained 2D-square lattice. According to the discussion section of this piece of work, these two sequences were chosen as breaking points towards the platform, in order to determine the tools to be created or improved in such a way to overcome the needs of a particular computation and analysis of a given tough sequence. The backwards philosophy herein is that the continuous studying of sequences provides itself important points to be added into the platform, to any time improve its efficiency, as is demonstrated herein.

Keywords: multi-agent systems, blackboard-based agent architecture, bioinformatics framework, virtual laboratory, protein folding.

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283 Some Physiological Effects of Momordica charantia and Trigonella foenum-graecum Extracts in Diabetic Rats as Compared with Cidophage®

Authors: Wehash, F. E., Ismail I. Abo-Ghanema, Rasha Mohamed Saleh

Abstract:

This study was conducted to evaluate the anti-diabetic properties of ethanolic extract of two plants commonly used in folk medicine, Mormodica charantia (bitter melon) and Trigonella foenum-graecum (fenugreek). The study was performed on STZinduced diabetic rats (DM type-I). Plant extracts of these two plants were given to STZ diabetic rats at the concentration of 500 mg/kg body weight ,50 mg/kg body weight respectively. Cidophage® (metformin HCl) were administered to another group to support the results at a dose of 500 mg/kg body weight, the ethanolic extracts and Cidophage administered orally once a day for four weeks using a stomach tube and; serum samples were obtained for biochemical analysis. The extracts caused significant decreases in glucose levels compared with diabetic control rats. Insulin secretions were increased after 4 weeks of treatment with Cidophage® compared with the control non-diabetic rats. Levels of AST and ALT liver enzymes were normalized by all treatments. Decreases in liver cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL in diabetic rats were observed with all treatments. HDL levels were increased by the treatments in the following order: bitter melon, Cidophage®, and fenugreek. Creatinine levels were reduced by all treatments. Serum nitric oxide and malonaldehyde levels were reduced by all extracts. GSH levels were increased by all extracts. Extravasation as measured by the Evans Blue test increased significantly in STZ-induced diabetic animals. This effect was reversed by ethanolic extracts of bitter melon or fenugreek.

Keywords: Cidophage®, Diabetic rats, Mormodica charantia, Trigonella foenum-graecum

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282 Bone Generation through Mechanical Loading

Authors: R. S. A. Nesbitt, J. Macione, A. Debroy, S. P. Kotha

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Bones are dynamic and responsive organs, they regulate their strength and mass according to the loads which they are subjected. Because, the Wnt/β-catenin pathway has profound effects on the regulation of bone mass, we hypothesized that mechanical loading of bone cells stimulates Wnt/β-catenin signaling, which results in the generation of new bone mass. Mechanical loading triggers the secretion of the Wnt molecule, which after binding to transmembrane proteins, causes GSK-3β (Glycogen synthase kinase 3 beta) to cease the phosphorylation of β-catenin. β-catenin accumulation in the cytoplasm, followed by its transport into the nucleus, binding to transcription factors (TCF/LEF) that initiate transcription of genes related to bone formation. To test this hypothesis, we used TOPGAL (Tcf Optimal Promoter β-galactosidase) mice in an experiment in which cyclic loads were applied to the forearm. TOPGAL mice are reporters for cells effected by the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway. TOPGAL mice are genetically engineered mice in which transcriptional activation of β- catenin, results in the production of an enzyme, β-galactosidase. The presence of this enzyme allows us to localize transcriptional activation of β-catenin to individual cells, thereby, allowing us to quantify the effects that mechanical loading has on the Wnt/β-catenin pathway and new bone formation. The ulnae of loaded TOPGAL mice were excised and transverse slices along different parts of the ulnar shaft were assayed for the presence of β-galactosidase. Our results indicate that loading increases β-catenin transcriptional activity in regions where this pathway is already primed (i.e. where basal activity is already higher) in a load magnitude dependent manner. Further experiments are needed to determine the temporal and spatial activation of this signaling in relation to bone formation.

Keywords: Bone Resorption and Formation, Mechanical Loading of Bone, Wnt Signaling Pathway & β-catenin.

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281 Experimental Study on Two-Step Pyrolysis of Automotive Shredder Residue

Authors: Letizia Marchetti, Federica Annunzi, Federico Fiorini, Cristiano Nicolella

Abstract:

Automotive shredder residue (ASR) is a mixture of waste that makes up 20-25% of end-of-life vehicles. For many years, ASR was commonly disposed of in landfills or incinerated, causing serious environmental problems. Nowadays, thermochemical treatments are a promising alternative, although the heterogeneity of ASR still poses some challenges. One of the emerging thermochemical treatments for ASR is pyrolysis, which promotes the decomposition of long polymeric chains by providing heat in the absence of an oxidizing agent. In this way, pyrolysis promotes the conversion of ASR into solid, liquid, and gaseous phases. This work aims to improve the performance of a two-step pyrolysis process. After the characterization of the analysed ASR, the focus is on determining the effects of residence time on product yields and gas composition. A batch experimental setup that reproduces the entire process was used. The setup consists of three sections: the pyrolysis section (made of two reactors), the separation section, and the analysis section. Two different residence times were investigated to find suitable conditions for the first sample of ASR. These first tests showed that the products obtained were more sensitive to residence time in the second reactor. Indeed, slightly increasing residence time in the second reactor managed to raise the yield of gas and carbon residue and decrease the yield of liquid fraction. Then, to test the versatility of the setup, the same conditions were applied to a different sample of ASR coming from a different chemical plant. The comparison between the two ASR samples shows that similar product yields and compositions are obtained using the same setup.

Keywords: Automotive shredder residue, experimental tests, heterogeneity, product yields, two-step pyrolysis.

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280 A Comprehensive Survey on Machine Learning Techniques and User Authentication Approaches for Credit Card Fraud Detection

Authors: Niloofar Yousefi, Marie Alaghband, Ivan Garibay

Abstract:

With the increase of credit card usage, the volume of credit card misuse also has significantly increased, which may cause appreciable financial losses for both credit card holders and financial organizations issuing credit cards. As a result, financial organizations are working hard on developing and deploying credit card fraud detection methods, in order to adapt to ever-evolving, increasingly sophisticated defrauding strategies and identifying illicit transactions as quickly as possible to protect themselves and their customers. Compounding on the complex nature of such adverse strategies, credit card fraudulent activities are rare events compared to the number of legitimate transactions. Hence, the challenge to develop fraud detection that are accurate and efficient is substantially intensified and, as a consequence, credit card fraud detection has lately become a very active area of research. In this work, we provide a survey of current techniques most relevant to the problem of credit card fraud detection. We carry out our survey in two main parts. In the first part, we focus on studies utilizing classical machine learning models, which mostly employ traditional transnational features to make fraud predictions. These models typically rely on some static physical characteristics, such as what the user knows (knowledge-based method), or what he/she has access to (object-based method). In the second part of our survey, we review more advanced techniques of user authentication, which use behavioral biometrics to identify an individual based on his/her unique behavior while he/she is interacting with his/her electronic devices. These approaches rely on how people behave (instead of what they do), which cannot be easily forged. By providing an overview of current approaches and the results reported in the literature, this survey aims to drive the future research agenda for the community in order to develop more accurate, reliable and scalable models of credit card fraud detection.

Keywords: credit card fraud detection, user authentication, behavioral biometrics, machine learning, literature survey

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279 Investigation of Effective Parameters on Pullout Capacity in Soil Nailing with Special Attention to International Design Codes

Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, M. Mortezaee

Abstract:

An important and influential factor in design and determining the safety factor in Soil Nailing is the ultimate pullout capacity, or, in other words, bond strength. This important parameter depends on several factors such as material and soil texture, method of implementation, excavation diameter, friction angle between the nail and the soil, grouting pressure, the nail depth (overburden pressure), the angle of drilling and the degree of saturation in soil. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), a customary regulation in the design of nailing, is considered only the effect of the soil type (or rock) and the method of implementation in determining the bond strength, which results in non-economic design. The other regulations are each of a kind, some of the parameters affecting bond resistance are not taken into account. Therefore, in the present paper, at first the relationships and tables presented by several valid regulations are presented for estimating the ultimate pullout capacity, and then the effect of several important factors affecting on ultimate Pullout capacity are studied. Finally, it was determined, the effect of overburden pressure (in method of injection with pressure), soil dilatation and roughness of the drilling surface on pullout strength is incremental, and effect of degree of soil saturation on pullout strength to a certain degree of saturation is increasing and then decreasing. therefore it is better to get help from nail pullout-strength test results and numerical modeling to evaluate the effect of parameters such as overburden pressure, dilatation, and degree of soil saturation, and so on to reach an optimal and economical design.

Keywords: Soil nailing, pullout capacity, FHWA, grout.

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278 Participation in Co-Curricular Activities of Undergraduate Nursing Students Attending the Leadership Promoting Program Based on Self-Directed Learning Approach

Authors: Porntipa Taksin, Jutamas Wongchan, Amornrat Karamee

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The researchers’ experience of student affairs in 2011-2013, we found that few undergraduate nursing students become student association members who participated in co-curricular activities, they have limited skill of self-directed-learning and leadership. We developed “A Leadership Promoting Program” using Self-Directed Learning concept. The program included six activities: 1) Breaking the ice, Decoding time, Creative SMO, Know me-Understand you, Positive thinking, and Creative dialogue, which include four aspects of these activities: decision-making, implementation, benefits, and evaluation. The one-group, pretest-posttest quasi-experimental research was designed to examine the effects of the program on participation in co-curricular activities. Thirty five students participated in the program. All were members of the board of undergraduate nursing student association of Boromarajonani College of Nursing, Chonburi. All subjects completed the questionnaire about participation in the activities at beginning and at the end of the program. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and dependent t-test. The results showed that the posttest scores of all four aspects mean were significantly higher than the pretest scores (t=3.30, p<.01). Three aspects had high mean scores, Benefits (Mean = 3.24, S.D. = 0.83), Decision-making (Mean = 3.21, S.D. = 0.59), and Implementation (Mean=3.06, S.D.=0.52). However, scores on evaluation falls in moderate scale (Mean = 2.68, S.D. = 1.13). Therefore, the Leadership Promoting Program based on Self-Directed Learning Approach could be a method to improve students’ participation in co-curricular activities and leadership.

Keywords: Participation in co-curricular activities, undergraduate nursing students, leadership promoting program, self-directed learning.

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277 Polymer Mediated Interaction between Grafted Nanosheets

Authors: Supriya Gupta, Paresh Chokshi

Abstract:

Polymer-particle interactions can be effectively utilized to produce composites that possess physicochemical properties superior to that of neat polymer. The incorporation of fillers with dimensions comparable to polymer chain size produces composites with extra-ordinary properties owing to very high surface to volume ratio. The dispersion of nanoparticles is achieved by inducing steric repulsion realized by grafting particles with polymeric chains. A comprehensive understanding of the interparticle interaction between these functionalized nanoparticles plays an important role in the synthesis of a stable polymer nanocomposite. With the focus on incorporation of clay sheets in a polymer matrix, we theoretically construct the polymer mediated interparticle potential for two nanosheets grafted with polymeric chains. The self-consistent field theory (SCFT) is employed to obtain the inhomogeneous composition field under equilibrium. Unlike the continuum models, SCFT is built from the microscopic description taking in to account the molecular interactions contributed by both intra- and inter-chain potentials. We present the results of SCFT calculations of the interaction potential curve for two grafted nanosheets immersed in the matrix of polymeric chains of dissimilar chemistry to that of the grafted chains. The interaction potential is repulsive at short separation and shows depletion attraction for moderate separations induced by high grafting density. It is found that the strength of attraction well can be tuned by altering the compatibility between the grafted and the mobile chains. Further, we construct the interaction potential between two nanosheets grafted with diblock copolymers with one of the blocks being chemically identical to the free polymeric chains. The interplay between the enthalpic interaction between the dissimilar species and the entropy of the free chains gives rise to a rich behavior in interaction potential curve obtained for two separate cases of free chains being chemically similar to either the grafted block or the free block of the grafted diblock chains.

Keywords: Clay nanosheets, polymer brush, polymer nanocomposites, self-consistent field theory.

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276 Smart Help at theWorkplace for Persons with Disabilities (SHW-PWD)

Authors: Ghassan Kbar, Shady Aly, Ibraheem Elsharawy, Akshay Bhatia, Nur Alhasan, Ronaldo Enriquez

Abstract:

The Smart Help for persons with disability (PWD) is a part of the project SMARTDISABLE which aims to develop relevant solution for PWD that target to provide an adequate workplace environment for them. It would support PWD needs smartly through smart help to allow them access to relevant information and communicate with other effectively and flexibly, and smart editor that assist them in their daily work. It will assist PWD in knowledge processing and creation as well as being able to be productive at the work place. The technical work of the project involves design of a technological scenario for the Ambient Intelligence (AmI) - based assistive technologies at the workplace consisting of an integrated universal smart solution that suits many different impairment conditions and will be designed to empower the Physically disabled persons (PDP) with the capability to access and effectively utilize the ICTs in order to execute knowledge rich working tasks with minimum efforts and with sufficient comfort level. The proposed technology solution for PWD will support voice recognition along with normal keyboard and mouse to control the smart help and smart editor with dynamic auto display interface that satisfies the requirements for different PWD group. In addition, a smart help will provide intelligent intervention based on the behavior of PWD to guide them and warn them about possible misbehavior. PWD can communicate with others using Voice over IP controlled by voice recognition. Moreover, Auto Emergency Help Response would be supported to assist PWD in case of emergency. This proposed technology solution intended to make PWD very effective at the work environment and flexible using voice to conduct their tasks at the work environment. The proposed solution aims to provide favorable outcomes that assist PWD at the work place, with the opportunity to participate in PWD assistive technology innovation market which is still small and rapidly growing as well as upgrading their quality of life to become similar to the normal people at the workplace. Finally, the proposed smart help solution is applicable in all workplace setting, including offices, manufacturing, hospital, etc.

Keywords: Ambient Intelligence, ICT, Persons with disability PWD, Smart application.

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275 Evaluation of Stormwater Quantity and Quality Control through Constructed Mini Wet Pond: A Case Study

Authors: Y. S. Liew, K. A. Puteh Ariffin, M. A. Mohd Nor

Abstract:

One of the Best Management Practices (BMPs) promoted in Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA) published by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) in 2001 is through the construction of wet ponds in new development projects for water quantity and quality control. Therefore, this paper aims to demonstrate a case study on evaluation of a constructed mini wet pond located at Sekolah Rendah Kebangsaan Seksyen 2, Puchong, Selangor, Malaysia in both stormwater quantity and quality aspect particularly to reduce the peak discharge by temporary storing and gradual release of stormwater runoff from an outlet structure or other release mechanism. The evaluation technique will be using InfoWorks Collection System (CS) as the numerical modeling approach for water quantity aspect. Statistical test by comparing the correlation coefficient (R2), mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model in simulating the peak discharge changes. Results demonstrated that there will be a reduction in peak flow at 11 % to 15% and time to peak flow is slower by 5 minutes through a wet pond. For water quality aspect, a survey on biological indicator of water quality carried out depicts that the pond is within the range of rather clean to clean water with the score of 5.3. This study indicates that a constructed wet pond with wetland facilities is able to help in managing water quantity and stormwater generated pollution at source, towards achieving ecologically sustainable development in urban areas.

Keywords: Wet pond, Retention Facilities, Best Management Practices (BMP), Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA).

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274 The Results of the Fetal Weight Estimation of the Infants Delivered in the Delivery Room At Dan Khunthot Hospital by Johnson-s Method

Authors: Nareelux Suwannobol, JintanaTapin, Khuanchanok Narachan

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The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy to estimation fetal weight by Johnson-s method and compares it with actual birth weight. The sample group was 126 infants delivered in Dan KhunThot hospital from January March 2012. Fetal weight was estimated by measuring fundal height according to Johnson-s method. The information was collected by studying historical delivery records and then analyzed by using the statistics of frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation. Finally, the difference was analyzed by a paired t-test.The results showed had an average birth weight was 3093.57 ± 391.03 g (mean ± SD) and 3,455 ± 454.55 g average estimated fetal weight by Johnson-s method higher than average actual birth weight was 384.09 grams. When classifying the infants according to birth weight found that low birth weight (<2500 g) and the appropriate birth weight (2500-3999g) actual birth weight less than estimate fetal weight . But the high birth weight (> 4000 g) actual birth weight was more than estimated fetal weight. The difference was found between actual birth weight and estimation fetal weight of the minimum weight in high birth weight ( > 4000 g) , the appropriate birth weight (2500-3999g) and low birth weight (<2500 g) respectively. The rate of estimates fetal weight within 10% of actual birth weight was 35.7%. Actual birth weight were compared with the found that the difference is statistically significant (p <.000). Employing Johnson-s method to estimate fetal weight can estimate initial fetal weight before passing to special examinations, which may require excessive high cost. A variety of methods should be employed to estimate fetal weight more precisely, which will help plan care for mother-s and infant-s safety.

Keywords: Johnson's method, Fetal weight estimate, Delivery Room, Student nurse.

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273 Perception of Neighbourhood-Level Built Environment in Relation to Youth Physical Activity in Malaysia

Authors: A. Abdullah, N. Faghih Mirzaei, S. Hany Haron

Abstract:

Neighbourhood environment walkability on reported physical activity (PA) levels of students of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) in Malaysia. Compared with previous generations, today’s young people spend less time playing outdoors and have lower participation rates in PA. Research suggests that negative perceptions of neighbourhood walkability may be a potential barrier to adolescents’ PA. The sample consisted of 200 USM students (to 24 years old) who live outside of the main campus and engage in PA in sport halls and sport fields of USM. The data were analysed using the t-test, binary logistic regression, and discriminant analysis techniques. The present study found that youth PA was affected by neighbourhood environment walkability factors, including neighbourhood infrastructures, neighbourhood safety (crime), and recreation facilities, as well as street characteristics and neighbourhood design variables such as facades of sidewalks, roadside trees, green spaces, and aesthetics. The finding also illustrated that active students were influenced by street connectivity, neighbourhood infrastructures, recreation facilities, facades of sidewalks, and aesthetics, whereas students in the less active group were affected by access to destinations, neighbourhood safety (crime), and roadside trees and green spaces for their PAs. These results report which factors of built environments have more effect on youth PA and they message to the public to create more awareness about the benefits of PA on youth health.

Keywords: Fear of crime, neighbourhood built environment, physical activities, street characteristics design.

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272 Development of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft Model Using System Identification Technique

Authors: Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello, Ferdinando Montemari

Abstract:

The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Flapping Dynamics, Flight Dynamics, System Identification, Tilt-Rotor Modeling and Simulation.

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271 Determination of the Pullout/Holding Strength at the Taper-Trunnion Junction of Hip Implants

Authors: Obinna K. Ihesiulor, Krishna Shankar, Paul Smith, Alan Fien

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Excessive fretting wear at the taper-trunnion junction (trunnionosis) apparently contributes to the high failure rates of hip implants. Implant wear and corrosion lead to the release of metal particulate debris and subsequent release of metal ions at the tapertrunnion surface. This results in a type of metal poisoning referred to as metallosis. The consequences of metal poisoning include; osteolysis (bone loss), osteoarthritis (pain), aseptic loosening of the prosthesis and revision surgery. Follow up after revision surgery, metal debris particles are commonly found in numerous locations. Background: A stable connection between the femoral ball head (taper) and stem (trunnion) is necessary to prevent relative motions and corrosion at the taper junction. Hence, the importance of component assembly cannot be over-emphasized. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the influence of head-stem junction assembly by press fitting and the subsequent disengagement/disassembly on the connection strength between the taper ball head and stem. Methods: CoCr femoral heads were assembled with High stainless hydrogen steel stem (trunnion) by Push-in i.e. press fit; and disengaged by pull-out test. The strength and stability of the two connections were evaluated by measuring the head pull-out forces according to ISO 7206-10 standards. Findings: The head-stem junction strength linearly increases with assembly forces.

Keywords: Wear, modular hip prosthesis, taper head-stem, force assembly, force disassembly.

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270 Effect of Assumptions of Normal Shock Location on the Design of Supersonic Ejectors for Refrigeration

Authors: Payam Haghparast, Mikhail V. Sorin, Hakim Nesreddine

Abstract:

The complex oblique shock phenomenon can be simply assumed as a normal shock at the constant area section to simulate a sharp pressure increase and velocity decrease in 1-D thermodynamic models. The assumed normal shock location is one of the greatest sources of error in ejector thermodynamic models. Most researchers consider an arbitrary location without justifying it. Our study compares the effect of normal shock place on ejector dimensions in 1-D models. To this aim, two different ejector experimental test benches, a constant area-mixing ejector (CAM) and a constant pressure-mixing (CPM) are considered, with different known geometries, operating conditions and working fluids (R245fa, R141b). In the first step, in order to evaluate the real value of the efficiencies in the different ejector parts and critical back pressure, a CFD model was built and validated by experimental data for two types of ejectors. These reference data are then used as input to the 1D model to calculate the lengths and the diameters of the ejectors. Afterwards, the design output geometry calculated by the 1D model is compared directly with the corresponding experimental geometry. It was found that there is a good agreement between the ejector dimensions obtained by the 1D model, for both CAM and CPM, with experimental ejector data. Furthermore, it is shown that normal shock place affects only the constant area length as it is proven that the inlet normal shock assumption results in more accurate length. Taking into account previous 1D models, the results suggest the use of the assumed normal shock location at the inlet of the constant area duct to design the supersonic ejectors.

Keywords: 1D model, constant area-mixing, constant pressure-mixing, normal shock location, ejector dimensions.

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269 Protective Effect of Saponin Extract from the Root of Garcinia kola (Bitter kola) against Paracetamol- Induced Hepatotoxicity in Albino Rats

Authors: Yemisi Rufina Alli Smith, Isaac Gbadura Adanlawo

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Liver disorders are one of the major problems of the world. Despite its frequent occurrence, high morbidity and high mortality, its medical management is currently inadequate. This study was designed to evaluate the hepatoprotective effect of saponin extract of the root of Garcinia kola on the integrity of the liver of paracetamol induced wistar albino rats. Twenty five (25) male adult wistar albino rats were divided into five (5) groups. Group I was the Control group that received distilled water only, group II was the negative control that received 2 g/kg of paracetamol on the 13th day, and group III, IV and V were pre-treated with 100, 200 and 400mg/kg of the saponin extract before inducing the liver damage on the 13th day with 2 g/kg of paracetamol. Twenty four (24) h after administration, the rats were sacrificed and blood samples were collected. The serum Alanine Transaminase (ALT), Aspartate Transaminase (AST), Alkaline Phosphatase (ALP) activities, Bilirubin and conjugated bilirubin, glucose and protein concentrations were evaluated. The liver was fixed immediately in Formalin and was processed and stained in Haematoxylin and Eosin (H&E). Administration of saponin extract from the root of Garcinia kola significantly decreased paracetamol induced elevated enzymes in the test group. Also histological observations showed that saponin extract of the root of Garcinia kola exhibited a significant liver protection against the toxicant as evident by the cells trying to return to normal. Saponin extract from the root of Garcinia kola indicated a protection of structural integrity of the hepatocytic cell membrane and regeneration of the damaged liver.

Keywords: Garcinia kola, Hepatoprotective, paracetamol, Saponin.

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268 Evaluating Complexity – Ethical Challenges in Computational Design Processes

Authors: J.Partanen

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Complexity, as a theoretical background has made it easier to understand and explain the features and dynamic behavior of various complex systems. As the common theoretical background has confirmed, borrowing the terminology for design from the natural sciences has helped to control and understand urban complexity. Phenomena like self-organization, evolution and adaptation are appropriate to describe the formerly inaccessible characteristics of the complex environment in unpredictable bottomup systems. Increased computing capacity has been a key element in capturing the chaotic nature of these systems. A paradigm shift in urban planning and architectural design has forced us to give up the illusion of total control in urban environment, and consequently to seek for novel methods for steering the development. New methods using dynamic modeling have offered a real option for more thorough understanding of complexity and urban processes. At best new approaches may renew the design processes so that we get a better grip on the complex world via more flexible processes, support urban environmental diversity and respond to our needs beyond basic welfare by liberating ourselves from the standardized minimalism. A complex system and its features are as such beyond human ethics. Self-organization or evolution is either good or bad. Their mechanisms are by nature devoid of reason. They are common in urban dynamics in both natural processes and gas. They are features of a complex system, and they cannot be prevented. Yet their dynamics can be studied and supported. The paradigm of complexity and new design approaches has been criticized for a lack of humanity and morality, but the ethical implications of scientific or computational design processes have not been much discussed. It is important to distinguish the (unexciting) ethics of the theory and tools from the ethics of computer aided processes based on ethical decisions. Urban planning and architecture cannot be based on the survival of the fittest; however, the natural dynamics of the system cannot be impeded on grounds of being “non-human". In this paper the ethical challenges of using the dynamic models are contemplated in light of a few examples of new architecture and dynamic urban models and literature. It is suggested that ethical challenges in computational design processes could be reframed under the concepts of responsibility and transparency.

Keywords: urban planning, architecture, dynamic modeling, ethics, complexity theory.

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267 Psychological Variables of Sport Participation and Involvement among Student-Athletes of Tertiary Institutions in South-West, Nigeria

Authors: Mayowa Adeyeye

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This study was conducted to investigate the psychological variables motivating sport participation and involvement among student-athletes of tertiary institutions in southwest Nigeria. One thousand three hundred and fifty (N-1350) studentathletes were randomly selected in all sports from nine tertiary institutions in south-west Nigeria. These tertiary institutions include University of Lagos, Lagos State University, Obafemi Awolowo University, Osun State University, University of Ibadan, University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Federal University of Technology Akungba, University of Ilorin, and Kwara State University. The descriptive survey research method was adopted while a self developed validated Likert type questionnaire named Sport Participation Scale (SPS) was used to elicit opinion from respondents. The test-retest reliability value obtained for the instrument, using Pearson Product Moment Correlation Co-efficient was 0.96. Out of the one thousand three hundred and fifty (N-1350) questionnaire administered, only one thousand two hundred and five (N-1286) were correctly filled, coded and analysed using inferential statistics of Chi-Square (X2) while all the tested hypotheses were set at. 05 alpha level. Based on the findings of this study, the result revealed that several psychological factors influence student athletes to continue participation in sport one which includes love for the game, famous athletes as role model and family support. However, the analysis further revealed that the stipends the student-athletes get from their universities have no influence on their participation and involvement in sport.

Keywords: Family support, peer, role model, sport participation, student-athletes.

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266 Efficiency of Wood Vinegar Mixed with Some Plants Extract against the Housefly (Musca domestica L.)

Authors: U. Pangnakorn, S. Kanlaya

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The efficiency of wood vinegar mixed with each individual of three plants extract such as: citronella grass (Cymbopogon nardus), neem seed (Azadirachta indica A. Juss), and yam bean seed (Pachyrhizus erosus Urb.) were tested against the second instar larvae of housefly (Musca domestica L.). Steam distillation was used for extraction of the citronella grass while neem and yam bean were simple extracted by fermentation with ethyl alcohol. Toxicity test was evaluated in laboratory based on two methods of larvicidal bioassay: topical application method (contact poison) and feeding method (stomach poison). Larval mortality was observed daily and larval survivability was recorded until the survived larvae developed to pupae and adults. The study resulted that treatment of wood vinegar mixed with citronella grass showed the highest larval mortality by topical application method (50.0%) and by feeding method (80.0%). However, treatment of mixed wood vinegar and neem seed showed the longest pupal duration to 25 day and 32 days for topical application method and feeding method respectively. Additional, larval duration on treated M. domestica larvae was extended to 13 days for topical application method and 11 days for feeding method. Thus, the feeding method gave higher efficiency compared with the topical application method.

Keywords: Housefly (Musca domestica L.), neem seed (Azadirachta indica), citronella grass (Cymbopogon nardus) yam bean seed (Pachyrhizus erosus), mortality.

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265 The Effects of Pilates and McKenzie Exercises on Quality of Life and Lumbar Spine Position Sense in Patients with Low Back Pain: A Comparative Study with a 4-Week Follow-Up

Authors: Vahid Mazloum, Mansour Sahebozamani, Amirhossein Barati, Nouzar Nakhaee, Pouya Rabiei

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Non-specific chronic low back pain (NSCLBP) is a common condition with no exact diagnosis and mechanism for its occurrence. Recently, different therapeutic exercises have taken into account to manage NSCLBP. So, the aim of this study has mainly been placed on comparing the effects of Pilates and Mackenzie exercises on quality of life (QOL) lumbar spine position sense (LSPS) in patients with NSCLBP. In this randomized clinical trial, 47 patients with NSCLBP were voluntarily divided into three groups of Pilates (n=16) (with mean age 37.1 ± 9.5 years, height 168.9 ± 7.4 cm, body mass 76.1 ± 5.9 k), McKenzie (n=15) (with mean age 42.7 ± 8.1 years, height 165.7 ± 6.8, body mass 74.1 ± 4.8 kg) and control (n=16) (with mean age 39.3 ± 9.8 years, height 168.1 ± 8.1 cm, body mass 74.2 ± 5.8 kg). Primary outcome included QOL and secondary was LSPS. Both variables were assessed by the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires and electrogoniameter, respectively. The measurements were performed at baseline, following a 6-week intervention, and after a 4-week follow-up. The ANCOVA test at P < 0.05 was administrated to analyze the collected data using SPSS software. There was a statistically significant difference between experimental groups and the control group to improve QOL. But, no difference was seen regarding the effects of two exercises on LSPS (p < 0.05). Both Pilates and Mackenzie exercises demonstrated improvement in QOL after 6-week intervention and a 4-week follow-up while none of them considerably affected LSPS. Further studies are required to establish a supporting evidence for the effectiveness of two exercises on NSCLBP.

Keywords: Pilates, Mackenzie, proprioception, low back pain, physical health.

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264 Pharmaceutical Microencapsulation Technology for Development of Controlled Release Drug Delivery systems

Authors: Mahmood Ahmad, Asadullah Madni, Muhammad Usman, Abubakar Munir, Naveed Akhtar, Haji M. Shoaib Khan

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This article demonstrated development of controlled release system of an NSAID drug, Diclofenac sodium employing different ratios of Ethyl cellulose. Diclofenac sodium and ethyl cellulose in different proportions were processed by microencapsulation based on phase separation technique to formulate microcapsules. The prepared microcapsules were then compressed into tablets to obtain controlled release oral formulations. In-vitro evaluation was performed by dissolution test of each preparation was conducted in 900 ml of phosphate buffer solution of pH 7.2 maintained at 37 ± 0.5 °C and stirred at 50 rpm. At predetermined time intervals (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 20 and 24 hrs). The drug concentration in the collected samples was determined by UV spectrophotometer at 276 nm. The physical characteristics of diclofenac sodium microcapsules were according to accepted range. These were off-white, free flowing and spherical in shape. The release profile of diclofenac sodium from microcapsules was found to be directly proportional to the proportion of ethylcellulose and coat thickness. The in-vitro release pattern showed that with ratio of 1:1 and 1:2 (drug: polymer), the percentage release of drug at first hour was 16.91 and 11.52 %, respectively as compared to 1:3 which is only 6.87 % with in this time. The release mechanism followed higuchi model for its release pattern. Tablet Formulation (F2) of present study was found comparable in release profile the marketed brand Phlogin-SR, microcapsules showed an extended release beyond 24 h. Further, a good correlation was found between drug release and proportion of ethylcellulose in the microcapsules. Microencapsulation based on coacervation found as good technique to control release of diclofenac sodium for making the controlled release formulations.

Keywords: Diclofenac sodium, Microencapsulationtechnology, Ethylcellulose, In-Vitro Release Profile

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263 Physiological and Pathology Demographics of Veteran Rugby Athletes: Golden Oldies Rugby Festival

Authors: Climstein Mike, Walsh Joe, John Best, Heazlewood Ian Timothy, Burke Stephen, Kettunen Jyrki, Adams Kent, DeBeliso Mark

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Recently, the health of retired National Football League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk, premature ardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar to National Football league players which suggest that rugby players may have similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby Festival (GORF) provided a unique opportunity to investigate the demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online web-based questionnaire that consisted of medical history and physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one sample t-test (<50yrs versus >50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS: A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors (response rate = 6.8%) representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0), participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current smokers was low at 8.8% (avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage consuming alcohol was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk). Competitors reported the following top six chronic diseases/disorders; hypertension (18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%), asthma (9.3%), hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to the Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data, n=18,000), GORF competitors had a Climstein Mike, Walsh Joe (corresponding author) and Burke Stephen School of Exercise Science, Australian Catholic University, 25A Barker Road, Strathfield, Sydney, NSW, 2016, Australia (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]). John Best is with Orthosports, 160 Belmore Rd., Randwick, Sydney,NSW 2031, Australia (e-mail: [email protected]). Heazlewood, Ian Timothy is with School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Faculty Education, Health and Science, Charles Darwin University, Precinct Yellow Building 2, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909, Australia (e-mail: [email protected]). Kettunen Jyrki Arcada University of Applied Sciences, Jan-Magnus Janssonin aukio 1, FI-00550, Helsinki, Finland (e-mail: [email protected]). Adams Kent is with California State University Monterey Bay, Kinesiology Department, 100 Campus Center, Seaside, CA., 93955, USA (email: [email protected]). DeBeliso Mark is with Department of Physical Education and Human Performance, Southern Utah University, 351 West University Blvd, Cedar City, Utah, USA (e-mail: [email protected]). significantly lower incidence of anxiety (p<0.01), arthritis (p<0.06), depression (p<.01) however, a significantly higher incidence of diabetes (p<0.03) and hypertension (p<0.01). The GORF competitors also reported taking the following prescribed medications; antihypertensive (13%), hypolipidemics (8%), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (6%), and anticoagulants (4%). Significant differences between groups were observed in antihypertensives, anticoagulants and hypolipidemics. There were significant (p<0.05) differences between groups (<50yrs versus >50yrs) with regard to height (180 vs 177cm), weight (97.6 vs 93.1Kg-s), BMI (30 vs 29.7kg/m2) and waist circumference (85.7 vs 93.1cm) however, there were no differences in subsequent parameters of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C, triglycerides-C or fasting plasma glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first collection of demographics on this cohort. GORF participants demonstrated increased cardiometabolic risk with regard to the incidence of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Preventative strategies should be developed to reduce this risk with education of these risks for future participants.

Keywords: Masters athlete, rugby union, risk factors, chronic disease.

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262 SMaTTS: Standard Malay Text to Speech System

Authors: Othman O. Khalifa, Zakiah Hanim Ahmad, Teddy Surya Gunawan

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This paper presents a rule-based text- to- speech (TTS) Synthesis System for Standard Malay, namely SMaTTS. The proposed system using sinusoidal method and some pre- recorded wave files in generating speech for the system. The use of phone database significantly decreases the amount of computer memory space used, thus making the system very light and embeddable. The overall system was comprised of two phases the Natural Language Processing (NLP) that consisted of the high-level processing of text analysis, phonetic analysis, text normalization and morphophonemic module. The module was designed specially for SM to overcome few problems in defining the rules for SM orthography system before it can be passed to the DSP module. The second phase is the Digital Signal Processing (DSP) which operated on the low-level process of the speech waveform generation. A developed an intelligible and adequately natural sounding formant-based speech synthesis system with a light and user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI) is introduced. A Standard Malay Language (SM) phoneme set and an inclusive set of phone database have been constructed carefully for this phone-based speech synthesizer. By applying the generative phonology, a comprehensive letter-to-sound (LTS) rules and a pronunciation lexicon have been invented for SMaTTS. As for the evaluation tests, a set of Diagnostic Rhyme Test (DRT) word list was compiled and several experiments have been performed to evaluate the quality of the synthesized speech by analyzing the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) obtained. The overall performance of the system as well as the room for improvements was thoroughly discussed.

Keywords: Natural Language Processing, Text-To-Speech (TTS), Diphone, source filter, low-/ high- level synthesis.

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261 LIDAR Obstacle Warning and Avoidance System for Unmanned Aircraft

Authors: Roberto Sabatini, Alessandro Gardi, Mark A. Richardson

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The availability of powerful eye-safe laser sources and the recent advancements in electro-optical and mechanical beam-steering components have allowed laser-based Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) to become a promising technology for obstacle warning and avoidance in a variety of manned and unmanned aircraft applications. LIDAR outstanding angular resolution and accuracy characteristics are coupled to its good detection performance in a wide range of incidence angles and weather conditions, providing an ideal obstacle avoidance solution, which is especially attractive in low-level flying platforms such as helicopters and small-to-medium size Unmanned Aircraft (UA). The Laser Obstacle Avoidance Marconi (LOAM) system is one of such systems, which was jointly developed and tested by SELEX-ES and the Italian Air Force Research and Flight Test Centre. The system was originally conceived for military rotorcraft platforms and, in this paper, we briefly review the previous work and discuss in more details some of the key development activities required for integration of LOAM on UA platforms. The main hardware and software design features of this LOAM variant are presented, including a brief description of the system interfaces and sensor characteristics, together with the system performance models and data processing algorithms for obstacle detection, classification and avoidance. In particular, the paper focuses on the algorithm proposed for optimal avoidance trajectory generation in UA applications.

Keywords: LIDAR, Low-Level Flight, Nap-of-the-Earth Flight, Near Infra-Red, Obstacle Avoidance, Obstacle Detection, Obstacle Warning System, Sense and Avoid, Trajectory Optimisation, Unmanned Aircraft.

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260 The Intonation of Romanian Greetings: A Sociolinguistics Approach

Authors: Anca-Diana Bibiri, Mihaela Mocanu, Adrian Turculeț

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In a language the inventory of greetings is dynamic with frequent input and output, although this is hardly noticed by the speakers. In this register, there are a number of constant, conservative elements that survive different language models (among them, the classic formulae: bună ziua! (good afternoon!), bună seara! (good evening!), noapte bună! (good night!), la revedere! (goodbye!) and a number of items that fail to pass the test of time, according to language use at a time (ciao!, pa!, bai!). The source of innovation depends both of internal factors (contraction, conversion, combination of classic formulae of greetings), and of external ones (borrowings and calques). Their use imposes their frequencies at once, namely the elimination of the use of others. This paper presents a sociolinguistic approach of contemporary Romanian greetings, based on prosodic surveys in two research projects: AMPRom, and SoRoEs. Romanian language presents a rich inventory of questions (especially partial interrogatives questions/WH-Q) which are used as greetings, alone or, more commonly accompanying a proper greeting. The representative of the typical formulae is Ce mai faci? (How are you?), which, unlike its English counterpart How do you do?, has not become a stereotype, but retains an obvious emotional impact, while serving as a mark of sociolinguistic group. The analyzed corpus consists of structures containing greetings recorded in the main Romanian cultural (urban) centers. From the methodological point of view, the acoustic analysis of the recorded data is performed using software tools (GoldWave, Praat), identifying intonation patterns related to three sociolinguistics variables: age, sex and level of education. The intonation patterns of the analyzed statements are at the interface between partial questions and typical greetings.

Keywords: acoustic analysis, greetings, Romanian language, sociolinguistics

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259 Computational Methods in Official Statistics with an Example on Calculating and Predicting Diabetes Mellitus [DM] Prevalence in Different Age Groups within Australia in Future Years, in Light of the Aging Population

Authors: D. Hilton

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An analysis of the Australian Diabetes Screening Study estimated undiagnosed diabetes mellitus [DM] prevalence in a high risk general practice based cohort. DM prevalence varied from 9.4% to 18.1% depending upon the diagnostic criteria utilised with age being a highly significant risk factor. Utilising the gold standard oral glucose tolerance test, the prevalence of DM was 22-23% in those aged >= 70 years and <15% in those aged 40-59 years. Opportunistic screening in Australian general practice potentially can identify many persons with undiagnosed type 2 DM. An Australian Bureau of Statistics document published three years ago, reported the highest rate of DM in men aged 65-74 years [19%] whereas the rate for women was highest in those over 75 years [13%]. If you consider that the Australian Bureau of Statistics report in 2007 found that 13% of the population was over 65 years of age and that this will increase to 23-25% by 2056 with a further projected increase to 25-28% by 2101, obviously this information has to be factored into the equation when age related diabetes prevalence predictions are calculated. This 10-15% proportional increase of elderly persons within the population demographics has dramatic implications for the estimated number of elderly persons with DM in these age groupings. Computational methodology showing the age related demographic changes reported in these official statistical documents will be done showing estimates for 2056 and 2101 for different age groups. This has relevance for future diabetes prevalence rates and shows that along with many countries worldwide Australia is facing an increasing pandemic. In contrast Japan is expected to have a decrease in the next twenty years in the number of persons with diabetes.

Keywords: Epidemiological methods, aging, prevalence.

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