Search results for: Fuzzy Project Selection

Authors: Zoheir Tir, Rachid Abdessemed

Abstract:

This paper presents a new control scheme to control a brushless doubly fed induction generator (BDFIG) using back-to-back PWM converters for wind power generation. The proposed control scheme is a New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC). The goal of BDFIG control is to achieve a similar dynamic performance to the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), exploiting the well-known induction machine vector control philosophy. The performance of NSTFPDC controller has been investigated and compared with the two controllers, called Proportional–Integral (PI) and PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller (PD-like FLC) based BDFIG. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and the robustness of the NSTFPDC controller.

Keywords: Brushless Doubly Fed Induction Generator (BDFIG), PI controller, PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller, New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC), Scaling factor, back-to-back PWM converters, wind energy system.

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Authors: V. S. Meenakshi, G. Padmavathi

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Biometric techniques are gaining importance for personal authentication and identification as compared to the traditional authentication methods. Biometric templates are vulnerable to variety of attacks due to their inherent nature. When a person-s biometric is compromised his identity is lost. In contrast to password, biometric is not revocable. Therefore, providing security to the stored biometric template is very crucial. Crypto biometric systems are authentication systems, which blends the idea of cryptography and biometrics. Fuzzy vault is a proven crypto biometric construct which is used to secure the biometric templates. However fuzzy vault suffer from certain limitations like nonrevocability, cross matching. Security of the fuzzy vault is affected by the non-uniform nature of the biometric data. Fuzzy vault when hardened with password overcomes these limitations. Password provides an additional layer of security and enhances user privacy. Retina has certain advantages over other biometric traits. Retinal scans are used in high-end security applications like access control to areas or rooms in military installations, power plants, and other high risk security areas. This work applies the idea of fuzzy vault for retinal biometric template. Multimodal biometric system performance is well compared to single modal biometric systems. The proposed multi modal biometric fuzzy vault includes combined feature points from retina and fingerprint. The combined vault is hardened with user password for achieving high level of security. The security of the combined vault is measured using min-entropy. The proposed password hardened multi biometric fuzzy vault is robust towards stored biometric template attacks.

Keywords: Biometric Template Security, Crypto Biometric Systems, Hardening Fuzzy Vault, Min-Entropy.

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Authors: H. M. Côrtes, J. I. Da Silva Filho, M. F. Blos, B. S. Zanon

Abstract:

In a modern society the factor corresponding to the increase in the level of quality in industrial production demand new techniques of control and machinery automation. In this context, this work presents the implementation of a Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID controller. The controller is based on the treatment of inconsistencies both in the Paraconsistent Logic and in the Fuzzy Logic. Paraconsistent analysis is performed on the signals applied to the system inputs using concepts from the Paraconsistent Annotated Logic with annotation of two values (PAL2v). The signals resulting from the paraconsistent analysis are two values defined as Dc - Degree of Certainty and Dct - Degree of Contradiction, which receive a treatment according to the Fuzzy Logic theory, and the resulting output of the logic actions is a single value called the crisp value, which is used to control dynamic system. Through an example, it was demonstrated the application of the proposed model. Initially, the Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID controller was built and tested in an isolated MATLAB environment and then compared to the equivalent Digital PID function of this software for standard step excitation. After this step, a level control plant was modeled to execute the controller function on a physical model, making the tests closer to the actual. For this, the control parameters (proportional, integral and derivative) were determined for the configuration of the conventional Digital PID controller and of the Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID, and the control meshes in MATLAB were assembled with the respective transfer function of the plant. Finally, the results of the comparison of the level control process between the Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID controller and the conventional Digital PID controller were presented.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, paraconsistent annotated logic, level control, digital PID.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Mahfouz, M. A. Ismail

Abstract:

This paper introduces new algorithms (Fuzzy relative of the CLARANS algorithm FCLARANS and Fuzzy c Medoids based on randomized search FCMRANS) for fuzzy clustering of relational data. Unlike existing fuzzy c-medoids algorithm (FCMdd) in which the within cluster dissimilarity of each cluster is minimized in each iteration by recomputing new medoids given current memberships, FCLARANS minimizes the same objective function minimized by FCMdd by changing current medoids in such away that that the sum of the within cluster dissimilarities is minimized. Computing new medoids may be effected by noise because outliers may join the computation of medoids while the choice of medoids in FCLARANS is dictated by the location of a predominant fraction of points inside a cluster and, therefore, it is less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In FCMRANS the step of computing new medoids in FCMdd is modified to be based on randomized search. Furthermore, a new initialization procedure is developed that add randomness to the initialization procedure used with FCMdd. Both FCLARANS and FCMRANS are compared with the robust and linearized version of fuzzy c-medoids (RFCMdd). Experimental results with different samples of the Reuter-21578, Newsgroups (20NG) and generated datasets with noise show that FCLARANS is more robust than both RFCMdd and FCMRANS. Finally, both FCMRANS and FCLARANS are more efficient and their outputs are almost the same as that of RFCMdd in terms of classification rate.

Keywords: Data Mining, Fuzzy Clustering, Relational Clustering, Medoid-Based Clustering, Cluster Analysis, Unsupervised Learning.

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Authors: A. Faro, D. Giordano, M. Pennisi, G. Scarciofalo, C. Spampinato, F. Tramontana

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The paper proposes a methodology to process the signals coming from the Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) in order to identify the pathology and evaluate the therapy to treat the patients affected by demency diseases. In particular, a fuzzy model is developed to identify the demency of the patients affected by Subcortical Ischemic Vascular Dementia (SIVD) and to measure the effect of a repetitive TMS on their motor performances. A tool is also presented to support the mentioned analysis.

Keywords: TMS, EMG, fuzzy logic, transcranial magnetic stimulation.

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Authors: D. Almazo, C. Rodríguez, M. Toledo

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This work presents a methodology for the selection and design of propeller oriented to the experimental verification of theoretical results. The problem of propeller selection and design usually present itself in the following manner: a certain air volume and static pressure are required for a certain system. Once the necessity of fan design on a theoretical basis has been recognized, it is possible to determinate the dimensions for a fan unit so that it will perform in accordance with a certain set of specifications. The same procedures in this work then can be applied in other propeller selection.

Keywords: airfoil, axial flow, blade, fan, hub, mathematical algorithm, propeller design, simulation, wheel.

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Authors: Debajyoti Mishra, Urmila Bhanja

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In this paper, a novel fuzzy approach is developed while solving the Dynamic Routing and Wavelength Assignment (DRWA) problem in optical networks with Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM). In this work, the effect of nonlinear and linear impairments such as Four Wave Mixing (FWM) and amplifier spontaneous emission (ASE) noise are incorporated respectively. The novel algorithm incorporates fuzzy logic controller (FLC) to reduce the effect of FWM noise and ASE noise on a requested lightpath referred in this work as FWM aware fuzzy dynamic routing and wavelength assignment algorithm. The FWM crosstalk products and the static FWM noise power per link are pre computed in order to reduce the set up time of a requested lightpath, and stored in an offline database. These are retrieved during the setting up of a lightpath and evaluated online taking the dynamic parameters like cost of the links into consideration.

Keywords: Amplifier spontaneous emission (ASE), Dynamic routing and wavelength assignment, Four wave mixing (FWM), Fuzzy rule based system (FRBS).

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Authors: Sri Hartati, 1Agus Harjoko, Brad G. Nickerson

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A prototype of an anomaly detection system was developed to automate process of recognizing an anomaly of roentgen image by utilizing fuzzy histogram hyperbolization image enhancement and back propagation artificial neural network. The system consists of image acquisition, pre-processor, feature extractor, response selector and output. Fuzzy Histogram Hyperbolization is chosen to improve the quality of the roentgen image. The fuzzy histogram hyperbolization steps consist of fuzzyfication, modification of values of membership functions and defuzzyfication. Image features are extracted after the the quality of the image is improved. The extracted image features are input to the artificial neural network for detecting anomaly. The number of nodes in the proposed ANN layers was made small. Experimental results indicate that the fuzzy histogram hyperbolization method can be used to improve the quality of the image. The system is capable to detect the anomaly in the roentgen image.

Keywords: Image processing, artificial neural network, anomaly detection.

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Authors: Lazim Abdullah, N orhanadiah Zam

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Increasing number of vehicles and lack of awareness among road users may lead to road accidents. However no specific literature was found to rank vehicles involved in accidents based on fuzzy variables of road users. This paper proposes a ranking of four selected motor vehicles involved in road accidents. Human and non-human factors that normally linked with road accidents are considered for ranking. The imprecision or vagueness inherent in the subjective assessment of the experts has led the application of fuzzy sets theory to deal with ranking problems. Data in form of linguistic variables were collected from three authorised personnel of three Malaysian Government agencies. The Multi Criteria Decision Making, fuzzy TOPSIS was applied in computational procedures. From the analysis, it shows that motorcycles vehicles yielded the highest closeness coefficient at 0.6225. A ranking can be drawn using the magnitude of closeness coefficient. It was indicated that the motorcycles recorded the first rank.

Keywords: Road accidents, decision making, closeness coefficient, fuzzy number

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Authors: Ayman A. Aly, Abdallah A. Alshnnaway

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The general idea behind the filter is to average a pixel using other pixel values from its neighborhood, but simultaneously to take care of important image structures such as edges. The main concern of the proposed filter is to distinguish between any variations of the captured digital image due to noise and due to image structure. The edges give the image the appearance depth and sharpness. A loss of edges makes the image appear blurred or unfocused. However, noise smoothing and edge enhancement are traditionally conflicting tasks. Since most noise filtering behaves like a low pass filter, the blurring of edges and loss of detail seems a natural consequence. Techniques to remedy this inherent conflict often encompass generation of new noise due to enhancement. In this work a new fuzzy filter is presented for the noise reduction of images corrupted with additive noise. The filter consists of three stages. (1) Define fuzzy sets in the input space to computes a fuzzy derivative for eight different directions (2) construct a set of IFTHEN rules by to perform fuzzy smoothing according to contributions of neighboring pixel values and (3) define fuzzy sets in the output space to get the filtered and edged image. Experimental results are obtained to show the feasibility of the proposed approach with two dimensional objects.

Keywords: Additive noise, edge preserving filtering, fuzzy image filtering, noise reduction, two dimensional mechanical images.

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Authors: Azeem Ahmad, Magnus Goransson, Aamir Shahzad

Abstract:

The selection of appropriate requirements for product releases can make a big difference in a product success. The selection of requirements is done by different requirements prioritization techniques. These techniques are based on pre-defined and systematic steps to calculate the requirements relative weight. Prioritization is complicated by new development settings, shifting from traditional co-located development to geographically distributed development. Stakeholders, connected to a project, are distributed all over the world. These geographically distributions of stakeholders make it hard to prioritize requirements as each stakeholder have their own perception and expectations of the requirements in a software project. This paper discusses limitations of the Analytical Hierarchy Process with respect to geographically distributed stakeholders- (GDS) prioritization of requirements. This paper also provides a solution, in the form of a modified AHP, in order to prioritize requirements for GDS. We will conduct two experiments in this paper and will analyze the results in order to discuss AHP limitations with respect to GDS. The modified AHP variant is also validated in this paper.

Keywords: Requirements Prioritization, GeographicallyDistributed Stakeholders, AHP, Modified AHP.

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Authors: Xinhua Zhang, Kelin Li

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In this paper, the problem of stability analysis for a class of impulsive stochastic fuzzy neural networks with timevarying delays and reaction-diffusion is considered. By utilizing suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii funcational, the inequality technique and stochastic analysis technique, some sufficient conditions ensuring global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks with time-varying delays and diffusion are obtained. In particular, the estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters, diffusion effect and impulsive disturbed intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of fuzzy neural networks. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: Exponential stability, stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks, time-varying delays, impulses, reaction-diffusion terms.

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Authors: E. Farshidi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on a novel synthesis, a set of new simplified circuit design to implement the linguistic-hedge operations for adjusting the fuzzy membership function set is presented. The circuits work in current-mode and employ floating-gate MOS (FGMOS) transistors that operate in weak inversion region. Compared to the other proposed circuits, these circuits feature severe reduction of the elements number, low supply voltage (0.7V), low power consumption (<200nW), immunity from body effect and wide input dynamic range (>60dB). In this paper, a set of fuzzy linguistic hedge circuits, including absolutely, very, much more, more, plus minus, more or less and slightly, has been implemented in 0.18 mm CMOS process. Simulation results by Hspice confirm the validity of the proposed design technique and show high performance of the circuits.

Keywords: Current-mode, Linguistic-Hedge, Fuzzy Logic, lowpower

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Authors: Tae Kyung Kim, Hee Suk Seo

Abstract:

Adapting various sensor devices to communicate within sensor networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities. The sensors in sensor networks need to know their measurable belief of trust for efficient and safe communication. In this paper, we suggested a trust model using fuzzy logic in sensor network. Trust is an aggregation of consensus given a set of past interaction among sensors. We applied our suggested model to sensor networks in order to show how trust mechanisms are involved in communicating algorithm to choose the proper path from source to destination.

Keywords: Fuzzy, Sensor Networks, Trust.

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Authors: Hae Young Lee, Tae Ho Cho

Abstract:

In many sensor network applications, sensor nodes are deployed in open environments, and hence are vulnerable to physical attacks, potentially compromising the node's cryptographic keys. False sensing report can be injected through compromised nodes, which can lead to not only false alarms but also the depletion of limited energy resource in battery powered networks. Ye et al. proposed a statistical en-route filtering scheme (SEF) to detect such false reports during the forwarding process. In this scheme, the choice of a security threshold value is important since it trades off detection power and overhead. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy logic for determining a security threshold value in the SEF based sensor networks. The fuzzy logic determines a security threshold by considering the number of partitions in a global key pool, the number of compromised partitions, and the energy level of nodes. The fuzzy based threshold value can conserve energy, while it provides sufficient detection power.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, security, sensor network.

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Authors: Richard A. Wasniowski

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a framework for multisensor intrusion detection called Fuzzy Agent-Based Intrusion Detection System. A unique feature of this model is that the agent uses data from multiple sensors and the fuzzy logic to process log files. Use of this feature reduces the overhead in a distributed intrusion detection system. We have developed an agent communication architecture that provides a prototype implementation. This paper discusses also the issues of combining intelligent agent technology with the intrusion detection domain.

Keywords: Intrusion detection, fuzzy logic, agents, networksecurity.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

The material selection problem is concerned with the determination of the right material for a certain product to optimize certain performance indices in that product such as mass, energy density, and power-to-weight ratio. This paper is concerned about optimizing the selection of the manufacturing process along with the material used in the product under performance indices and availability constraints. In this paper, the material selection problem is formulated using binary programming and solved by genetic algorithm. The objective function of the model is to minimize the total manufacturing cost under performance indices and material and manufacturing process availability constraints.

Keywords: Optimization, Material selection, Process selection, Genetic algorithm.

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Authors: N. Kumaresan, J. Kavikumar, M. Kumudthaa, Kuru Ratnavelu

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In this paper, solution of fuzzy differential equation under general differentiability is obtained by genetic programming (GP). The obtained solution in this method is equivalent or very close to the exact solution of the problem. Accuracy of the solution to this problem is qualitatively better. An illustrative numerical example is presented for the proposed method.

Keywords: Fuzzy differential equation, Generalized differentiability, Genetic programming and H-difference.

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Authors: Oshmita Dey, Debjani Chakraborty

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In this paper, a single period inventory model with resalable returns has been analyzed in an imprecise and uncertain mixed environment. Demand has been introduced as a fuzzy random variable. In this model, a single order is placed before the start of the selling season. The customer, for a full refund, may return purchased products within a certain time interval. Returned products are resalable, provided they arrive back before the end of the selling season and are found to be undamaged. Products remaining at the end of the season are salvaged. All demands not met directly are lost. The probabilities that a sold product is returned and that a returned product is resalable, both imprecise in a real situation, have been assumed to be fuzzy in nature.

Keywords: Fuzzy random variable, Modified graded meanintegration, Internet mail order, Inventory.

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: Credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment.

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Authors: R. Monib, C. I. Goodier, A. Gibb

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the key drivers in planning the construction phase for infrastructure projects to reduce project delays. To achieve this aim, the research conducted three case studies using semi-structured and unstructured interviews (n = 59). The results conclude that a lack of modularization awareness is among the key factors attributed to project delays. The current emotive and ill-informed approach to decision-making, coupled with the lack of knowledge regarding appropriate construction method selection, prevents the potential benefits of modularization being fully realized. To assist with decision-making for the best construction method, the research presents project management tools to help decision makers to choose the most appropriate construction approach through optimizing the use of modularization in engineering and construction (EC). A decision-making checklist is presented in this paper. This checklist tool assists the project team in determining the best construction method, taking into consideration the module type.

Keywords: Infrastructure, modularization, decision support, planning.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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Authors: A. Hasankhani, H. Saadat, M. M. Zahedi

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In this paper some properties of the uniformity topology on a BCI-algebras are discussed.

Keywords: (Fuzzy) ideal, (Fuzzy) subalgebra, Uniformity, clopen sets.

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Authors: Othoman Elsayah, Naren Gupta, Binsheng Zhang

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The construction sector constitutes one of the most important sectors in the economy of any country. Contractor selection is a critical decision that is undertaken by client organizations and is central to the success of any construction project. Contractor selection (CS) is a process which involves investigating, screening and determining whether candidate contractors have the technical and financial capability to be accepted to formally tender for construction work. The process should be conducted prior to the award of contract, characterized by many factors such as: contactor’s skills, experience on similar projects, track- record in the industry, and financial stability. However, this paper evaluates the current state of knowledge in relation to contractor selection process and demonstrates the findings from the analysis of the data collected from the Delphi questionnaire survey. The survey was conducted with a group of 12 experts working in the Libyan construction industry (LCI). The paper starts by briefly explaining the general outline of the questionnaire including the survey participation rate, the different fields the experts came from, and the business titles of the participants. Then the paper describes the tests used to determine when the experts had reached consensus. The paper is based on research which aims to develop rank contractor selection criteria with specific application to make construction projects in the Libyan context. The findings of this study will be utilized to establish the scope of work that will be used as part of a PhD research.

Keywords: Contractor selection, Libyan construction industry, Decision experts and Delphi technique.

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Authors: Mahmoud Saeidi, Khadijeh Saeidi, Mahmoud Khaleghi

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In this paper, we propose a novel spatiotemporal fuzzy based algorithm for noise filtering of image sequences. Our proposed algorithm uses adaptive weights based on a triangular membership functions. In this algorithm median filter is used to suppress noise. Experimental results show when the images are corrupted by highdensity Salt and Pepper noise, our fuzzy based algorithm for noise filtering of image sequences, are much more effective in suppressing noise and preserving edges than the previously reported algorithms such as [1-7]. Indeed, assigned weights to noisy pixels are very adaptive so that they well make use of correlation of pixels. On the other hand, the motion estimation methods are erroneous and in highdensity noise they may degrade the filter performance. Therefore, our proposed fuzzy algorithm doesn-t need any estimation of motion trajectory. The proposed algorithm admissibly removes noise without having any knowledge of Salt and Pepper noise density.

Keywords: Image Sequences, Noise Reduction, fuzzy algorithm, triangular membership function

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Authors: Alexandre Boum, Salomon Madinatou

Abstract:

This paper aims at bringing a scientific contribution to the cardiac arrhythmia biomedical diagnosis systems; more precisely to the study of the amelioration of cardiac arrhythmia classification performance using artificial neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy and fuzzy inference systems classifiers. The purpose of this amelioration is to enable cardiologists to make reliable diagnosis through automatic cardiac arrhythmia analyzes and classifications based on high confidence classifiers. In this study, six classes of the most commonly encountered arrhythmias are considered: the Right Bundle Branch Block, the Left Bundle Branch Block, the Ventricular Extrasystole, the Auricular Extrasystole, the Atrial Fibrillation and the Normal Cardiac rate beat. From the electrocardiogram (ECG) extracted parameters, we constructed a matrix (360x360) serving as an input data sample for the classifiers based on neural networks and a matrix (1x6) for the classifier based on fuzzy logic. By varying three parameters (the quality of the neural network learning, the data size and the quality of the input parameters) the automatic classification permitted us to obtain the following performances: in terms of correct classification rate, 83.6% was obtained using the fuzzy logic based classifier, 99.7% using the neural network based classifier and 99.8% for the adaptive neuro-fuzzy based classifier. These results are based on signals containing at least 360 cardiac cycles. Based on the comparative analysis of the aforementioned three arrhythmia classifiers, the classifiers based on neural networks exhibit a better performance.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy, artificial neural network, cardiac arrythmias, fuzzy inference systems.

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Authors: Benhamouda Sara, Guezouli Larbi

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Nowadays, the dissemination of information touches the distributed world, where selecting the relevant servers to a user request is an important problem in distributed information retrieval. During the last decade, several research studies on this issue have been launched to find optimal solutions and many approaches of collection selection have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a new collection selection approach that takes into consideration the number of documents in a collection that contains terms of the query and the weights of those terms in these documents. We tested our method and our studies show that this technique can compete with other state-of-the-art algorithms that we choose to test the performance of our approach.

Keywords: Distributed information retrieval, relevance, server selection, collection selection.

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Authors: Abolfazl Jalilvand, Mohammad Reza Feyzi, Sohrab Khanmohammad, Mohammad Bagher Bana Sharifian, Ali Sajjadi

Abstract:

Nowadays the control of stator voltage at a constant frequency is one of the traditional and low expense methods in order to control the speed of induction motors near its nominal speed. The torque of induction motor is a nonlinear function of the firing angle, phase angle and speed. In this paper the speed control of induction motor regarding various load torque and under different conditions will be investigated based on a fuzzy controller with inverse training.

Keywords: Three phase induction motor, AC converter, speedcontrol, fuzzy control.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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