Search results for: Autoregressive modelling

Authors: Shahrol Mohamaddan, Keith Case, Ana Sakura Zainal Abidin

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Human movement in the real world provides important information for developing human behaviour models and simulations. However, it is difficult to assess ‘real’ human behaviour since there is no established method available. As part of the AUNTSUE (Accessibility and User Needs in Transport – Sustainable Urban Environments) project, this research aimed to propose a method to assess human movement and behaviour in crowded areas. The method is based on the three major steps of video recording, conceptual behavior modelling and video analysis. The focus is on individual human movement and behaviour in normal situations (panic situations are not considered) and the interactions between individuals in localized areas. Emphasis is placed on gaining knowledge of characteristics of human movement and behaviour in the real world that can be modelled in the virtual environment.

Keywords: Video observation, Human movement, Behaviour, Crowds, Ergonomics, AUNT-SUE

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Authors: C. Silveira, A. Ascenso, J. Ferreira, A. I. Miranda, P. Tuccella, G. Curci

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Poor air quality is one of the main environmental causes of premature deaths worldwide, and mainly in cities, where the majority of the population lives. It is a consequence of successive land cover (LC) and use changes, as a result of the intensification of human activities. Knowing these landscape modifications in a comprehensive spatiotemporal dimension is, therefore, essential for understanding variations in air pollutant concentrations. In this sense, the use of air quality models is very useful to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect the dispersion and reaction of chemical species into the atmosphere. However, the modelling performance should always be evaluated since the resolution of the input datasets largely dictates the reliability of the air quality outcomes. Among these data, the updated LC is an important parameter to be considered in atmospheric models, since it takes into account the Earth’s surface changes due to natural and anthropic actions, and regulates the exchanges of fluxes (emissions, heat, moisture, etc.) between the soil and the air. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), when different LC classifications are used as an input. The influence of two LC classifications was tested: i) the 24-classes USGS (United States Geological Survey) LC database included by default in the model, and the ii) CLC (Corine Land Cover) and specific high-resolution LC data for Portugal, reclassified according to the new USGS nomenclature (33-classes). Two distinct WRF-Chem simulations were carried out to assess the influence of the LC on air quality over Europe and Portugal, as a case study, for the year 2015, using the nesting technique over three simulation domains (25 km², 5 km² and 1 km² horizontal resolution). Based on the 33-classes LC approach, particular emphasis was attributed to Portugal, given the detail and higher LC spatial resolution (100 m x 100 m) than the CLC data (5000 m x 5000 m). As regards to the air quality, only the LC impacts on tropospheric ozone concentrations were evaluated, because ozone pollution episodes typically occur in Portugal, in particular during the spring/summer, and there are few research works relating to this pollutant with LC changes. The WRF-Chem results were validated by season and station typology using background measurements from the Portuguese air quality monitoring network. As expected, a better model performance was achieved in rural stations: moderate correlation (0.4 – 0.7), BIAS (10 – 21µg.m^-3) and RMSE (20 – 30 µg.m^-3), and where higher average ozone concentrations were estimated. Comparing both simulations, small differences grounded on the Leaf Area Index and air temperature values were found, although the high-resolution LC approach shows a slight enhancement in the model evaluation. This highlights the role of the LC on the exchange of atmospheric fluxes, and stresses the need to consider a high-resolution LC characterization combined with other detailed model inputs, such as the emission inventory, to improve air quality assessment.

Keywords: Land cover, tropospheric ozone, WRF-Chem, air quality assessment.

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Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Vincenzo Francani

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The paper deals with the analysis of triggering conditions and evolution processes of piping phenomena, in relation to both mechanical and hydraulic aspects. In particular, the aim of the study is to predict slope instabilities triggered by piping, analysing the conditions necessary for a flow failure to occur. Really, the mechanical effect involved in the loads redistribution around the pipe is coupled to the drainage process arising from higher permeability of the pipe. If after the pipe formation, the drainage goes prevented for pipe clogging, the porewater pressure increase can lead to the failure or even the liquefaction, with a subsequent flow slide. To simulate the piping evolution and to verify relevant stability conditions, a iterative coupled modelling approach has been pointed out. As example, the proposed tool has been applied to the Stava Valley disaster (July, 1985), demonstrating that piping might be one of triggering phenomena of the tailings dams collapse.

Keywords: Flow failure, liquefaction, modeling, piping, porewater pressure.

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

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A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and distribution of worm gear drives, and to calculate the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness. In the approach, the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well-established formulae of spur gear loading and stresses. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. Based on the slicing method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share are obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: Gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line.

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Authors: Olga Orynycz, Andrzej Wasiak

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Mathematical model describing energetic efficiency (defined as a ratio of energy obtained in the form of biofuel to the sum of energy inputs necessary to facilitate production) of agricultural subsystem as a function of technological parameters was developed. Production technology is characterized by parameters of machinery, topological characteristics of the plantation as well as transportation routes inside and outside of plantation. The relationship between the energetic efficiency of agricultural and industrial subsystems is also derived. Due to the assumed large area of the individual field, the operations last for several days increasing inter-fields routes because of several returns. The total distance driven outside of the fields is, however, small as compared to the distance driven inside of the fields. This results in small energy consumption during inter-fields transport that, however, causes a substantial decrease of the energetic effectiveness of the whole system.

Keywords: Biofuel, energetic efficiency, EROEI, mathematical modelling, production system.

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Authors: Theddeus T. Akano, Omotayo A. Fakinlede

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The modelling of physical phenomena, such as the earth’s free oscillations, the vibration of strings, the interaction of atomic particles, or the steady state flow in a bar give rise to Sturm- Liouville (SL) eigenvalue problems. The boundary applications of some systems like the convection-diffusion equation, electromagnetic and heat transfer problems requires the combination of Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. Hence, the incorporation of Robin boundary condition in the analyses of Sturm-Liouville problem. This paper deals with the computation of the eigenvalues and eigenfunction of generalized Sturm-Liouville problems with Robin boundary condition using the finite element method. Numerical solution of classical Sturm–Liouville problem is presented. The results show an agreement with the exact solution. High results precision is achieved with higher number of elements.

Keywords: Sturm-Liouville problem, Robin boundary condition, finite element method, eigenvalue problems.

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Authors: N. Webb, A. Buchanan

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Digital and virtual heritage is often associated with the recreation of lost artefacts and architecture; however, we can also investigate works that were not completed, using digital tools and techniques. Here we explore physical evidence of a fourteenth-century Gothic vault located in the north transept of St Mary’s church in Nantwich, Cheshire, using existing springer stones that are built into the walls as a starting point. Digital surveying tools are used to document the architecture, followed by an analysis process to hypothesise and simulate possible design solutions, had the vault been completed. A number of options, both two-dimensionally and three-dimensionally, are discussed based on comparison with examples of other contemporary vaults, thus adding another specimen to the corpus of vault designs. Dissemination methods such as digital models and 3D prints are also explored as possible resources for demonstrating what the finished vault might have looked like for heritage interpretation and other purposes.

Keywords: Digital simulation, heritage interpretation, medieval vaults, virtual heritage, 3D scanning.

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Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

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This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: Spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data.

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Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

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With the growing trend of adoption of advanced technologies like, building information modeling, artificial intelligence, wireless network, the collaboration and integration of these technologies into digital twin become more prominent in architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) industry in view of the nature and scale of AEC industry which efficiently adopted the digital twin. Digital twin is provided to be effective for AEC professions for design and project management. The digital concept is continuously developing and it is vital for AEC professionals and other stakeholders to understand the digital twin concept and the adoption of various advanced building technologies related to the AEC industry. This paper is to review the application of digital twins application in project management in AEC industry and highlight the challenge of AEC partitioners faced by the revolution of technologies including digital twins and building information modelling (BIM) for further research and future study.

Keywords: Digital Twin, AEC, building information modeling, project management, internet of things.

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Authors: Prompt Udomdech, Eleni Papadonikolaki, Andrew Davies

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Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the major technological trend among built environment organisations. Digitalising businesses and operations, BIM brings forth a digital transformation in any built environment industry. The adoption of BIM presents challenges for organisations, especially Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). The main problem for built environment SMEs is the lack of project actors with adequate BIM competences. The research highlights learning in projects as the key and explores into the learning of BIM in projects of designers and engineers within Thai design and engineering SMEs. The study uncovers three impeding attributes which are: a) lack of English proficiency; b) unfamiliarity with digital technologies; and c) absence of public standards. This research expands on the literature of BIM competences and adoption.

Keywords: BIM competences and adoption, digital transformation, learning in projects, SMEs, and developing built environment industry.

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Authors: N. A. Ibrahim, A. Kudus, I. Daud, M. R. Abu Bakar

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Competing risks survival data that comprises of more than one type of event has been used in many applications, and one of these is in clinical study (e.g. in breast cancer study). The decision tree method can be extended to competing risks survival data by modifying the split function so as to accommodate two or more risks which might be dependent on each other. Recently, researchers have constructed some decision trees for recurrent survival time data using frailty and marginal modelling. We further extended the method for the case of competing risks. In this paper, we developed the decision tree method for competing risks survival time data based on proportional hazards for subdistribution of competing risks. In particular, we grow a tree by using deviance statistic. The application of breast cancer data is presented. Finally, to investigate the performance of the proposed method, simulation studies on identification of true group of observations were executed.

Keywords: Competing risks, Decision tree, Simulation, Subdistribution Proportional Hazard.

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Authors: Huaizhi Han, Bingxi Li, Yurong He, Rushan Bie, Zhao Wu

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The flow and heat transfer mechanism in convex corrugated tubes have been investigated through numerical simulations in this paper. Two kinds of tube types named as symmetric corrugated tube (SCT) and asymmetric corrugated tube (ACT) are modeled and studied numerically based on the RST model. The predictive capability of RST model is examined in the corrugation wall in order to check the reliability of RST model under the corrugation wall condition. We propose a comparison between the RST modelling the corrugation wall with existing direct numerical simulation of Maaß C and Schumann U [14]. The numerical results pressure coefficient at different profiles between RST and DNS are well matched. The influences of large corrugation tough radii to heat transfer and flow characteristic had been considered. Flow and heat transfer comparison between SCT and ACT had been discussed. The numerical results show that ACT exhibits higher overall heat transfer performance than SCT.

Keywords: Asymmetric corrugated tube, RST, DNS, flow and heat transfer mechanism.

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Authors: R. Tamborrino, F. Rinaudo

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Digital technologies offer possibilities to effectively convert historical archives into instruments of knowledge able to provide a guide for the interpretation of historical phenomena. Digital conversion and management of those documents allow the possibility to add other sources in a unique and coherent model that permits the intersection of different data able to open new interpretations and understandings. Urban history uses, among other sources, the inventories that register human activities in a specific space (e.g. cadastres, censuses, etc.). The geographic localisation of that information inside cartographic supports allows for the comprehension and visualisation of specific relationships between different historical realities registering both the urban space and the peoples living there. These links that merge the different nature of data and documentation through a new organisation of the information can suggest a new interpretation of other related events. In all these kinds of analysis, the use of GIS platforms today represents the most appropriate answer. The design of the related databases is the key to realise the ad-hoc instrument to facilitate the analysis and the intersection of data of different origins. Moreover, GIS has become the digital platform where it is possible to add other kinds of data visualisation. This research deals with the industrial development of Turin at the beginning of the 20th century. A census of factories realized just prior to WWI provides the opportunity to test the potentialities of GIS platforms for the analysis of urban landscape modifications during the first industrial development of the town. The inventory includes data about location, activities, and people. GIS is shaped in a creative way linking different sources and digital systems aiming to create a new type of platform conceived as an interface integrating different kinds of data visualisation. The data processing allows linking this information to an urban space, and also visualising the growth of the city at that time. The sources, related to the urban landscape development in that period, are of a different nature. The emerging necessity to build, enlarge, modify and join different buildings to boost the industrial activities, according to their fast development, is recorded by different official permissions delivered by the municipality and now stored in the Historical Archive of the Municipality of Turin. Those documents, which are reports and drawings, contain numerous data on the buildings themselves, including the block where the plot is located, the district, and the people involved such as the owner, the investor, and the engineer or architect designing the industrial building. All these collected data offer the possibility to firstly re-build the process of change of the urban landscape by using GIS and 3D modelling technologies thanks to the access to the drawings (2D plans, sections and elevations) that show the previous and the planned situation. Furthermore, they access information for different queries of the linked dataset that could be useful for different research and targets such as economics, biographical, architectural, or demographical. By superimposing a layer of the present city, the past meets to the present-industrial heritage, and people meet urban history.

Keywords: Digital urban history, census, digitalisation, GIS, modelling, digital humanities.

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Different transportation modes have key operational advantages and disadvantages, providing a variety of different transport options to users and passengers. This paper reviews key variables for the competition between air transport and other transport modes. The aim of this paper is to review the competition between air transport and other transport modes, providing results in terms of perceived cost for the users, for destinations high competitiveness for all transport modes. The competitor analysis variables include the cost and time outputs for each transport option, highlighting the level of competitiveness on high demanded Origin-Destination corridors. The case study presents the output of a such analysis for the OD corridor in Greece that connects the Capital city (Athens) with the second largest city (Thessaloniki) and the different transport modes have been considered (air, train, road). Conventional wisdom is to present an easy to handle tool for planners, managers and decision makers towards pricing policy effectiveness and demand attractiveness, appropriate to use for other similar cases.

Keywords: Competitor analysis, generalized cost, transport economics, quantitative modelling.

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Authors: Y. Sabzehmeidani, M. Mailah, M. Hussein, A. R. Tavakolpour

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In this paper, a worm-like micro robot designed for inpipe application with intelligent active force control (AFC) capability is modelled and simulated. The motion of the micro robot is based on an impact drive mechanism (IDM) that is actuated using piezoelectric device. The trajectory tracking performance of the modelled micro robot is initially experimented via a conventional proportionalintegral- derivative (PID) controller in which the dynamic response of the robot system subjected to different input excitations is investigated. Subsequently, a robust intelligent method known as active force control with fuzzy logic (AFCFL) is later incorporated into the PID scheme to enhance the system performance by compensating the unwanted disturbances due to the interaction of the robot with its environment. Results show that the proposed AFCFL scheme is far superior than the PID control counterpart in terms of the system-s tracking capability in the wake of the disturbances.

Keywords: Active Force Control, Micro Robot, Fuzzy Logic, In-pipe Application.

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Authors: Gia Surguladze, Nino Topuria, Ana Gavardashvili, Tsatsa Namchevadze

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The present article discusses design and development of Information System for monitoring ecology within the Black Sea basin of Georgia. Sea parameters, river, estuary, vulnerable district, water sample, etc. were considered as the major parameters of the sea ecosystem. A conceptual schema has been developed for the Black Sea ecosystem based on object-role model. The experimental database for the Black Sea ecosystem has been constructed using Ms SQL Server, while the object-role model NORMA has been developed using graphical instrument Ms Visual Studio within the integrated environment of .NET Framework 4.5. Web portal has been designed based on Ms SharePoint Server. The server database connection with web-portal has been carried out by means of External List of Ms SharePoint Server Designer.

Keywords: Web-application, service-oriented architecture, database, object-role modelling, SharePoint, Black sea, river, estuary, ecology, monitoring system, automation of data processing.

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Authors: Maruful H. Mazumder, Raymond I. Gilbert, Zhen- T. Chang

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A reliable estimate of the average bond stress within the anchorage of steel reinforcing bars in tension is critically important for the design of reinforced concrete member. This paper describes part of a recently completed experimental research program in the Centre for Infrastructure Engineering and Safety (CIES) at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia aimed at assessing the effects of different factors on the anchorage requirements of modern high strength steel reinforcing bars. The study found that an increase in the anchorage length and bar diameter generally leads to a reduction of the average ultimate bond stress. By the extension of a well established analytical model of bond and anchorage, it is shown here that the differences in the average ultimate bond stress for different anchorage lengths is associated with the variable degree of plastic deformation in the tensile zone of the concrete surrounding the bar.

Keywords: Anchorage, Bond stress, Development length, Reinforced concrete.

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Authors: Keny Ordaz-Hernandez, Xavier Fischer, Fouad Bennis

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In a particular case of behavioural model reduction by ANNs, a validity domain shortening has been found. In mechanics, as in other domains, the notion of validity domain allows the engineer to choose a valid model for a particular analysis or simulation. In the study of mechanical behaviour for a cantilever beam (using linear and non-linear models), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Backpropagation (BP) networks have been applied as model reduction technique. This reduced model is constructed to be more efficient than the non-reduced model. Within a less extended domain, the ANN reduced model estimates correctly the non-linear response, with a lower computational cost. It has been found that the neural network model is not able to approximate the linear behaviour while it does approximate the non-linear behaviour very well. The details of the case are provided with an example of the cantilever beam behaviour modelling.

Keywords: artificial neural network, validity domain, cantileverbeam, non-linear behaviour, model reduction.

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location, and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance and within study variance, and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: Random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation.

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Authors: Analise Borg, Paul Micallef

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Over the past few years, the online multimedia collection has grown at a fast pace. Several companies showed interest to study the different ways to organise the amount of audio information without the need of human intervention to generate metadata. In the past few years, many applications have emerged on the market which are capable of identifying a piece of music in a short time. Different audio effects and degradation make it much harder to identify the unknown piece. In this paper, an audio fingerprinting system which makes use of a non-parametric based algorithm is presented. Parametric analysis is also performed using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). The feature extraction methods employed are the Mel Spectrum Coefficients and the MPEG-7 basic descriptors. Bin numbers replaced the extracted feature coefficients during the non-parametric modelling. The results show that nonparametric analysis offer potential results as the ones mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: Audio fingerprinting, mapping algorithm, Gaussian Mixture Models, MFCC, MPEG-7.

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Authors: Rıza Gürhan Korkut, Metin Çelik, Süleyman Özkaynak

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The early-stage design and development projects for the freight village initiatives require a comprehensive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data. Considering the literature review on structural and operational management requirements, this study proposed an original taxonomy on criterion structure to assess freight village conceptualization. The potential challenges and uncertainties of the developed taxonomy are extended. Besides requirement analysis, this study is also expected to contribute to forthcoming research on benchmarking of freight villages in different regions. The methodology used in this research is a systematic review on several articles as per their modelling approaches, sustainability, entities and decisions made together with the uncertainties and features of their models taken into consideration. The major findings of the study that are the categories for assessing the projects attributes on their environmental, socio-economical, accessibility and location aspects.

Keywords: Freight village, logistics centers, operational management, taxonomy.

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Authors: R. O. Santos, L. P. Moreira, M. C. Cardoso

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Spacer grid assembly supporting the nuclear fuel rods is an important concern in the design of structural components of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The spacer grid is composed by springs and dimples which are formed from a strip sheet by means of blanking and stamping processes. In this paper, the blanking process and tooling parameters are evaluated by means of a 2D plane-strain finite element model in order to evaluate the punch load and quality of the sheared edges of Inconel 718 strips used for nuclear spacer grids. A 3D finite element model is also proposed to predict the tooling loads resulting from the stamping process of a preformed Inconel 718 strip and to analyse the residual stress effects upon the spring and dimple design geometries of a nuclear spacer grid.

Keywords: Blanking process, damage model, finite element modelling, Inconel 718, spacer grids, stamping process.

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Authors: Zuraida Alwadood, Adibah Shuib, Norlida Abd Hamid

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This paper presents the review of past studies concerning mathematical models for rescheduling passenger railway services, as part of delay management in the occurrence of railway disruption. Many past mathematical models highlighted were aimed at minimizing the service delays experienced by passengers during service disruptions. Integer programming (IP) and mixed-integer programming (MIP) models are critically discussed, focusing on the model approach, decision variables, sets and parameters. Some of them have been tested on real-life data of railway companies worldwide, while a few have been validated on fictive data. Based on selected literatures on train rescheduling, this paper is able to assist researchers in the model formulation by providing comprehensive analyses towards the model building. These analyses would be able to help in the development of new approaches in rescheduling strategies or perhaps to enhance the existing rescheduling models and make them more powerful or more applicable with shorter computing time.

Keywords: Mathematical modelling, Mixed-integer programming, Railway rescheduling, Service delays.

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Authors: Alaa A. Osman, Amgad M. Bayoumy, Ismail El baialy, Osama E. Abdellatif, Essam E. Khallil

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In this paper, a numerical simulation of a finned store separating from a wing-pylon configuration has been studied and validated. A dynamic unstructured tetrahedral mesh approach is accomplished by using three grid sizes to numerically solving the discretized three dimensional, inviscid and compressible Euler equations. The method used for computations of separation of an external store assuming quasi-steady flow condition. Computations of quasi-steady flow have been directly coupled to a six degree-offreedom (6DOF) rigid-body motion code to generate store trajectories. The pressure coefficients at four different angular cuts and time histories of various trajectory parameters and wing pressure distribution during the store separation are compared for every grid size with published experimental data.

Keywords: CFD Modelling, Quasi-steady Flow, Moving-body Trajectories, Transonic Store Separation, Moving-body Trajectories.

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Authors: Sherine Beshara, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Noha M. Galal

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Supply chain management has become more challenging with the emerging trend of globalization and sustainability. Lately, research related to perishable products supply chains, in particular agricultural food products, has emerged. This is attributed to the additional complexity of managing this type of supply chains with the recently increased concern of public health, food quality, food safety, demand and price variability, and the limited lifetime of these products. Inventory management for agrifood supply chains is of vital importance due to the product perishability and customers- strive for quality. This paper concentrates on developing a simulation model of a real life case study of a two echelon production-distribution system for agri-food products. The objective is to improve a set of performance measures by developing a simulation model that helps in evaluating and analysing the performance of these supply chains. Simulation results showed that it can help in improving overall system performance.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chains, inventory model, modelling and Simulation, supply chain.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

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Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: Osama A. Terfas

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The development of shape and size of a crack in a pressure vessel under uniaxial and biaxial loadings is important in fitness-for-service evaluations such as leak-before-break. In this work finite element modelling was used to evaluate the mean stress and the J-integral around a front of a surface-breaking crack. A procedure on the basis of ductile tearing resistance curves of high and low constrained fracture mechanics geometries was developed to estimate the amount of ductile crack extension for surface-breaking cracks and to show the evolution of the initial crack shape. The results showed non-uniform constraint levels and crack driving forces around the crack front at large deformation levels. It was also shown that initially semi-elliptical surface cracks under biaxial load developed higher constraint levels around the crack front than in uniaxial tension. However similar crack shapes were observed with more extensions associated with cracks under biaxial loading.

Keywords: biaxial load, crack shape, fracture toughness, surface crack, uniaxial load.

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Authors: Cynthia Sau Chun Yip, Richard Fielding

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High meat and especially red meat intakes are significantly and positively associated with a multiple burden of diseases and also high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated population meat intake patterns in Hong Kong. It quantified the burden of disease and GHG emission outcomes by modeling to adjust Hong Kong population meat intakes to recommended healthy levels. It compared age- and sex-specific population meat, fruit and vegetable intakes obtained from a population survey among adults aged 20 years and over in Hong Kong in 2005-2007, against intake recommendations suggested in the Modelling System to Inform the Revision of the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (AGHE-2011-MS) technical document. This study found that meat and meat alternatives, especially red meat intakes among Hong Kong males aged 20+ years and over are significantly higher than recommended. Red meat intakes among females aged 50-69 years and other meat and alternatives intakes among aged 20-59 years are also higher than recommended. Taking the 2005-07 age- and sex-specific population meat intake as baselines, three counterfactual scenarios of adjusting Hong Kong adult population meat intakes to AGHE-2011-MS and Pre-2011 AGHE recommendations by the year 2030 were established. Consequent energy intake gaps were substituted with additional legume, fruit and vegetable intakes. To quantify the consequent GHG emission outcomes associated with Hong Kong meat intakes, Cradle-to-ready-to-eat lifecycle assessment emission outcome modelling was used. Comparative risk assessment of burden of disease model was used to quantify the health outcomes. This study found adjusting meat intakes to recommended levels could reduce Hong Kong GHG emission by 17%-44% when compared against baseline meat intake emissions, and prevent 2,519 to 7,012 premature deaths in males and 53 to 1,342 in females, as well as multiple burden of diseases when compared to the baseline meat intake scenario. Comparing lump sum meat intake reduction and outcome measures across the entire population, and using emission factors, and relative risks from individual studies in previous co-benefit studies, this study used age- and sex-specific input and output measures, emission factors and relative risks obtained from high quality meta-analysis and meta-review respectively, and has taken government dietary recommendations into account. Hence evaluations in this study are of better quality and more reflective of real life practices. Further to previous co-benefit studies, this study pinpointed age- and sex-specific population and meat-type-specific intervention points and leverages. When compared with similar studies in Australia, this study also showed that intervention points and leverages among populations in different geographic and cultural background could be different, and that globalization also globalizes meat consumption emission effects. More regional and cultural specific evaluations are recommended to promote more sustainable meat consumption and enhance global food security.

Keywords: Burden of diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, Hong Kong diet, sustainable meat consumption.

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Authors: Labar Hocine, Dgeghader Yacine, Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Bounaya Kamel

Abstract:

To maximise furnace production it-s necessary to optimise furnace control, with the objectives of achieving maximum power input into the melting process, minimum network distortion and power-off time, without compromise on quality and safety. This can be achieved with on the one hand by an appropriate electrode control and on the other hand by a minimum of AC transformer switching. Electrical arc is a stochastic process; witch is the principal cause of power quality problems, including voltages dips, harmonic distortion, unbalance loads and flicker. So it is difficult to make an appropriate model for an Electrical Arc Furnace (EAF). The factors that effect EAF operation are the melting or refining materials, melting stage, electrode position (arc length), electrode arm control and short circuit power of the feeder. So arc voltages, current and power are defined as a nonlinear function of the arc length. In this article we propose our own empirical function of the EAF and model, for the mean stages of the melting process, thanks to the measurements in the steel factory.

Keywords: Modelling, electrical arc, melting, power, EAF, steel.

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Authors: T. Zitoun, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

When a partially or completely immersed solid moves in a liquid such as water, it undergoes a force called hydrodynamic drag. Reducing this force has always been the objective of hydrodynamic engineers to make water slide better on submerged bodies. This paper deals with the examination of the different terms composing the analytical solution of the flow over an obstacle embedded at the bottom of a hydraulic channel. We have chosen to use a linear method to study a two-dimensional flow over an obstacle, in order to understand the evolution of the drag. We set the following assumptions: incompressible inviscid fluid, irrotational flow, low obstacle height compared to the water height. Those assumptions allow overcoming the difficulties associated with modelling these waves. We will mathematically formulate the equations that allow the determination of the stream function, and then the free surface equation. A similar method is used to determine the exact analytical solution for an obstacle in the shape of a sinusoidal arch.

Keywords: Free-surface wave, inviscid fluid, analytical solution, hydraulic channel.

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