Search results for: Discrete boundary value problem
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4535

Search results for: Discrete boundary value problem

4145 Vibration of Functionally Graded Cylindrical Shells under Effects Free-free and Clamed-clamped Boundary Conditions

Authors: M. R.Isvandzibaei, A.Jahani

Abstract:

In the present work, study of the vibration of thin cylindrical shells made of a functionally gradient material (FGM) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties are graded in the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law distribution. The objective is to study the natural frequencies, the influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of boundary conditions on the natural frequencies of the FG cylindrical shell. The study is carried out using third order shear deformation shell theory. The analysis is carried out using Hamilton's principle. The governing equations of motion of FG cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of free-free and clamped-clamped boundary conditions.

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, cylindrical shell, Hamilton's principle.

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4144 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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4143 Vehicle Aerodynamics: Drag Reduction by Surface Dimples

Authors: C. K. Chear, S. S. Dol

Abstract:

For a bluff body, dimples behave like roughness elements in stimulating a turbulent boundary layer, leading to delayed flow separation, a smaller wake and lower form drag. This is very different in principle from the application of dimples to streamlined body, where any reduction in drag would be predominantly due to a reduction in skin friction. In the present work, a car model with different dimple geometry is simulated using k-ε turbulence modeling to determine its effect to the aerodynamics performance. Overall, the results show that the application of dimples manages to reduce the drag coefficient of the car model.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, Boundary Layer, Dimple, Drag, Kinetic Energy, Turbulence.

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4142 Binary Phase-Only Filter Watermarking with Quantized Embedding

Authors: Hu Haibo, Liu Yi, He Ming

Abstract:

The binary phase-only filter digital watermarking embeds the phase information of the discrete Fourier transform of the image into the corresponding magnitudes for better image authentication. The paper proposed an approach of how to implement watermark embedding by quantizing the magnitude, with discussing how to regulate the quantization steps based on the frequencies of the magnitude coefficients of the embedded watermark, and how to embed the watermark at low frequency quantization. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that algorithm flexibility, security, watermark imperceptibility and detection performance of the binary phase-only filter digital watermarking can be effectively improved with quantization based watermark embedding, and the robustness against JPEG compression will also be increased to some extent.

Keywords: binary phase-only filter, discrete Fourier transform, digital watermarking, image authentication, quantization.

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4141 Boundary Layer Flow of a Casson Nanofluid past a Vertical Exponentially Stretching Cylinder in the Presence of a Transverse Magnetic Field with Internal Heat Generation/Absorption

Authors: G. Sarojamma, K. Vendabai

Abstract:

An analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of magnetic field and heat source on the steady boundary layer flow and heat transfer of a Casson nanofluid over a vertical cylinder stretching exponentially along its radial direction. Using a similarity transformation, the governing mathematical equations, with the boundary conditions are reduced to a system of coupled, non –linear ordinary differential equations. The resulting system is solved numerically by the fourth order Runge – Kutta scheme with shooting technique. The influence of various physical parameters such as Reynolds number, Prandtl number, magnetic field, Brownian motion parameter, thermophoresis parameter, Lewis number and the natural convection parameter are presented graphically and discussed for non – dimensional velocity, temperature and nanoparticle volume fraction. Numerical data for the skin – friction coefficient, local Nusselt number and the local Sherwood number have been tabulated for various parametric conditions. It is found that the local Nusselt number is a decreasing function of Brownian motion parameter Nb and the thermophoresis parameter Nt.

Keywords: Casson nanofluid, Boundary layer flow, Internal heat generation/absorption, Exponentially stretching cylinder, Heat transfer, Brownian motion, Thermophoresis.

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4140 Optimization of Wood Fiber Orientation Angle in Outer Layers of Variable Stiffness Plywood Plate

Authors: J. Sliseris, K. Rocens

Abstract:

The new optimization method for fiber orientation angle optimization of symmetrical multilayer plates like plywood is proposed. Optimization method consists of seeking for minimal compliance by choosing appropriate fiber orientation angle in outer layers of flexural plate. The discrete values of fiber orientation angles are used in method. Optimization results of simply supported plate and multispan plate with uniformly distributed load are provided. Results show that stiffness could be increased up to 20% by changing wood fiber orientation angle in one or two outer layers.

Keywords: Minimal compliance, flexural plate, plywood, discrete fiber angle optimization.

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4139 The Symmetric Solutions for Boundary Value Problems of Second-Order Singular Differential Equation

Authors: Li Xiguang

Abstract:

In this paper, by constructing a special operator and using fixed point index theorem of cone, we get the sufficient conditions for symmetric positive solution of a class of nonlinear singular boundary value problems with p-Laplace operator, which improved and generalized the result of related paper.

Keywords: Banach space, cone, fixed point index, singular differential equation, p-Laplace operator, symmetric solutions.

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4138 A Deterministic Polynomial-time Algorithm for the Clique Problem and the Equality of P and NP Complexity Classes

Authors: Zohreh O. Akbari

Abstract:

In this paper a deterministic polynomial-time algorithm is presented for the Clique problem. The case is considered as the problem of omitting the minimum number of vertices from the input graph so that none of the zeroes on the graph-s adjacency matrix (except the main diagonal entries) would remain on the adjacency matrix of the resulting subgraph. The existence of a deterministic polynomial-time algorithm for the Clique problem, as an NP-complete problem will prove the equality of P and NP complexity classes.

Keywords: Clique problem, Deterministic Polynomial-time Algorithm, Equality of P and NP Complexity Classes.

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4137 Optimization by Ant Colony Hybryde for the Bin-Packing Problem

Authors: Ben Mohamed Ahemed Mohamed, Yassine Adnan

Abstract:

The problem of bin-packing in two dimensions (2BP) consists in placing a given set of rectangular items in a minimum number of rectangular and identical containers, called bins. This article treats the case of objects with a free orientation of 90Ôùª. We propose an approach of resolution combining optimization by colony of ants (ACO) and the heuristic method IMA to resolve this NP-Hard problem.

Keywords: Ant colony algorithm, bin-packing problem, heuristics methods.

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4136 A Novel Instantaneous Frequency Computation Approach for Empirical Mode Decomposition

Authors: Liming Zhang

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new instantaneous frequency computation approach  -Counting Instantaneous Frequency for a general class of signals called simple waves. The classsimple wave contains a wide range of continuous signals for which the concept instantaneous frequency has a perfect physical sense. The concept of  -Counting Instantaneous Frequency also applies to all the discrete data. For all the simple wave signals and the discrete data, -Counting instantaneous frequency can be computed directly without signal decomposition process. The intrinsic mode functions obtained through empirical mode decomposition belongs to simple wave. So  -Counting instantaneous frequency can be used together with empirical mode decomposition.

Keywords: Instantaneous frequency, empirical mode decomposition, intrinsic mode function.

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4135 A New Time Discontinuous Expanded Mixed Element Method for Convection-dominated Diffusion Equation

Authors: Jinfeng Wang, Yuanhong Bi, Hong Li, Yang Liu, Meng Zhao

Abstract:

In this paper, a new time discontinuous expanded mixed finite element method is proposed and analyzed for two-order convection-dominated diffusion problem. The proofs of the stability of the proposed scheme and the uniqueness of the discrete solution are given. Moreover, the error estimates of the scalar unknown, its gradient and its flux in the L1( ¯ J,L2( )-norm are obtained.

Keywords: Convection-dominated diffusion equation, expanded mixed method, time discontinuous scheme, stability, error estimates.

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4134 Calibration of the Discrete Element Method Using a Large Shear Box

Authors: Corné J. Coetzee, Etienne Horn

Abstract:

One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out.

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4133 A Novel Prostate Segmentation Algorithm in TRUS Images

Authors: Ali Rafiee, Ahad Salimi, Ali Reza Roosta

Abstract:

Prostate cancer is one of the most frequent cancers in men and is a major cause of mortality in the most of countries. In many diagnostic and treatment procedures for prostate disease accurate detection of prostate boundaries in transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) images is required. This is a challenging and difficult task due to weak prostate boundaries, speckle noise and the short range of gray levels. In this paper a novel method for automatic prostate segmentation in TRUS images is presented. This method involves preprocessing (edge preserving noise reduction and smoothing) and prostate segmentation. The speckle reduction has been achieved by using stick filter and top-hat transform has been implemented for smoothing. A feed forward neural network and local binary pattern together have been use to find a point inside prostate object. Finally the boundary of prostate is extracted by the inside point and an active contour algorithm. A numbers of experiments are conducted to validate this method and results showed that this new algorithm extracted the prostate boundary with MSE less than 4.6% relative to boundary provided manually by physicians.

Keywords: Prostate segmentation, stick filter, neural network, active contour.

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4132 Optimal Facility Layout Problem Solution Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Maricar G. Misola, Bryan B. Navarro

Abstract:

Facility Layout Problem (FLP) is one of the essential problems of several types of manufacturing and service sector. It is an optimization problem on which the main objective is to obtain the efficient locations, arrangement and order of the facilities. In the literature, there are numerous facility layout problem research presented and have used meta-heuristic approaches to achieve optimal facility layout design. This paper presented genetic algorithm to solve facility layout problem; to minimize total cost function. The performance of the proposed approach was verified and compared using problems in the literature.

Keywords: Facility Layout Problem, Genetic Algorithm, Material Handling Cost, Meta-heuristic Approach.

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4131 Solving the Teacher Assignment-Course Scheduling Problem by a Hybrid Algorithm

Authors: Aldy Gunawan, Kien Ming Ng, Kim Leng Poh

Abstract:

This paper presents a hybrid algorithm for solving a timetabling problem, which is commonly encountered in many universities. The problem combines both teacher assignment and course scheduling problems simultaneously, and is presented as a mathematical programming model. However, this problem becomes intractable and it is unlikely that a proven optimal solution can be obtained by an integer programming approach, especially for large problem instances. A hybrid algorithm that combines an integer programming approach, a greedy heuristic and a modified simulated annealing algorithm collaboratively is proposed to solve the problem. Several randomly generated data sets of sizes comparable to that of an institution in Indonesia are solved using the proposed algorithm. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can overcome difficulties of large problem sizes encountered in previous related works.

Keywords: Timetabling problem, mathematical programming model, hybrid algorithm, simulated annealing.

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4130 The Symmetric Solutions for Three-Point Singular Boundary Value Problems of Differential Equation

Authors: Li Xiguang

Abstract:

In this paper, by constructing a special operator and using fixed point index theorem of cone, we get the sufficient conditions for symmetric positive solution of a class of nonlinear singular boundary value problems with p-Laplace operator, which improved and generalized the result of related paper.

Keywords: Banach space, cone, fixed point index, singular differential equation, p-Laplace operator, symmetric solutions.

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4129 The Effects of Tissue Optical Parameters and Interface Reflectivity on Light Diffusion in Biological Tissues

Authors: MA. Ansari

Abstract:

In cancer progress, the optical properties of tissues like absorption and scattering coefficient change, so by these changes, we can trace the progress of cancer, even it can be applied for pre-detection of cancer. In this paper, we investigate the effects of changes of optical properties on light penetrated into tissues. The diffusion equation is widely used to simulate light propagation into biological tissues. In this study, the boundary integral method (BIM) is used to solve the diffusion equation. We illustrate that the changes of optical properties can modified the reflectance or penetrating light.

Keywords: Diffusion equation, boundary element method, refractive index

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4128 Flow and Heat Transfer over a Shrinking Sheet: A Stability Analysis

Authors: Anuar Ishak

Abstract:

The characteristics of fluid flow and heat transfer over a permeable shrinking sheet is studied. The governing partial differential equations are transformed into a set of ordinary differential equations, which are then solved numerically using MATLAB routine boundary value problem solver bvp4c. Numerical results show that dual solutions are possible for a certain range of the suction parameter. A stability analysis is performed to determine which solution is linearly stable and physically realizable.

Keywords: Dual solutions, heat transfer, shrinking sheet, stability analysis.

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4127 Investigation of Crack Formation in Ordinary Reinforced Concrete Beams and in Beams Strengthened with Carbon Fiber Sheet: Theory and Experiment

Authors: Anton A. Bykov, Irina O. Glot, Igor N. Shardakov, Alexey P. Shestakov

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the mechanisms of crack formation in reinforced concrete beams subjected to quasi-static bending. The boundary-value problem has been formulated in the framework of brittle fracture mechanics and has been solved by using the finite-element method. Numerical simulation of the vibrations of an uncracked beam and a beam with cracks of different size serves to determine the pattern of changes in the spectrum of eigenfrequencies observed during crack evolution. Experiments were performed on the sequential quasistatic four-point bending of the beam leading to the formation of cracks in concrete. At each loading stage, the beam was subjected to an impulse load to induce vibrations. Two stages of cracking were detected. At the first stage the conservative process of deformation is realized. The second stage is an active cracking, which is marked by a sharp change in eingenfrequencies. The boundary of a transition from one stage to another is well registered. The vibration behavior was examined for the beams strengthened by carbon-fiber sheet before loading and at the intermediate stage of loading after the grouting of initial cracks. The obtained results show that the vibrodiagnostic approach is an effective tool for monitoring of cracking and for assessing the quality of measures aimed at strengthening concrete structures.

Keywords: Crack formation. experiment. mathematical modeling. reinforced concrete. vibrodiagnostics.

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4126 Stochastic Programming Model for Power Generation

Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

We consider power system expansion planning under uncertainty. In our approach, integer programming and stochastic programming provide a basic framework. We develop a multistage stochastic programming model in which some of the variables are restricted to integer values. By utilizing the special property of the problem, called block separable recourse, the problem is transformed into a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. The electric power capacity expansion problem is reformulated as the problem with first stage integer variables and continuous second stage variables. The L-shaped algorithm to solve the problem is proposed.

Keywords: electric power capacity expansion problem, integerprogramming, L-shaped method, stochastic programming

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4125 Three Dimensional Large Eddy Simulation of Blood Flow and Deformation in an Elastic Constricted Artery

Authors: Xi Gu, Guan Heng Yeoh, Victoria Timchenko

Abstract:

In the current work, a three-dimensional geometry of a 75% stenosed blood vessel is analyzed. Large eddy simulation (LES) with the help of a dynamic subgrid scale Smagorinsky model is applied to model the turbulent pulsatile flow. The geometry, the transmural pressure and the properties of the blood and the elastic boundary were based on clinical measurement data. For the flexible wall model, a thin solid region is constructed around the 75% stenosed blood vessel. The deformation of this solid region was modelled as a deforming boundary to reduce the computational cost of the solid model. Fluid-structure interaction is realized via a twoway coupling between the blood flow modelled via LES and the deforming vessel. The information of the flow pressure and the wall motion was exchanged continually during the cycle by an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian method. The boundary condition of current time step depended on previous solutions. The fluctuation of the velocity in the post-stenotic region was analyzed in the study. The axial velocity at normalized position Z=0.5 shows a negative value near the vessel wall. The displacement of the elastic boundary was concerned in this study. In particular, the wall displacement at the systole and the diastole were compared. The negative displacement at the stenosis indicates a collapse at the maximum velocity and the deceleration phase.

Keywords: Large Eddy Simulation, Fluid Structural Interaction, Constricted Artery, Computational Fluid Dynamics.

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4124 Aliasing Free and Additive Error in Spectra for Alpha Stable Signals

Authors: R. Sabre

Abstract:

This work focuses on the symmetric alpha stable process with continuous time frequently used in modeling the signal with indefinitely growing variance, often observed with an unknown additive error. The objective of this paper is to estimate this error from discrete observations of the signal. For that, we propose a method based on the smoothing of the observations via Jackson polynomial kernel and taking into account the width of the interval where the spectral density is non-zero. This technique allows avoiding the “Aliasing phenomenon” encountered when the estimation is made from the discrete observations of a process with continuous time. We have studied the convergence rate of the estimator and have shown that the convergence rate improves in the case where the spectral density is zero at the origin. Thus, we set up an estimator of the additive error that can be subtracted for approaching the original signal without error.

Keywords: Spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, p-adic.

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4123 Audio Watermarking Using Spectral Modifications

Authors: Jyotsna Singh, Parul Garg, Alok Nath De

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a non-blind technique of adding the watermark to the Fourier spectral components of audio signal in a way such that the modified amplitude does not exceed the maximum amplitude spread (MAS). This MAS is due to individual Discrete fourier transform (DFT) coefficients in that particular frame, which is derived from the Energy Spreading function given by Schroeder. Using this technique one can store double the information within a given frame length i.e. overriding the watermark on the host of equal length with least perceptual distortion. The watermark is uniformly floating on the DFT components of original signal. This helps in detecting any intentional manipulations done on the watermarked audio. Also, the scheme is found robust to various signal processing attacks like presence of multiple watermarks, Additive white gaussian noise (AWGN) and mp3 compression.

Keywords: Discrete Fourier Transform, Spreading Function, Watermark, Pseudo Noise Sequence, Spectral Masking Effect

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4122 Stability Optimization of Functionally Graded Pipes Conveying Fluid

Authors: Karam Y. Maalawi, Hanan E.M EL-Sayed

Abstract:

This paper presents an exact analytical model for optimizing stability of thin-walled, composite, functionally graded pipes conveying fluid. The critical flow velocity at which divergence occurs is maximized for a specified total structural mass in order to ensure the economic feasibility of the attained optimum designs. The composition of the material of construction is optimized by defining the spatial distribution of volume fractions of the material constituents using piecewise variations along the pipe length. The major aim is to tailor the material distribution in the axial direction so as to avoid the occurrence of divergence instability without the penalty of increasing structural mass. Three types of boundary conditions have been examined; namely, Hinged-Hinged, Clamped- Hinged and Clamped-Clamped pipelines. The resulting optimization problem has been formulated as a nonlinear mathematical programming problem solved by invoking the MatLab optimization toolbox routines, which implement constrained function minimization routine named “fmincon" interacting with the associated eigenvalue problem routines. In fact, the proposed mathematical models have succeeded in maximizing the critical flow velocity without mass penalty and producing efficient and economic designs having enhanced stability characteristics as compared with the baseline designs.

Keywords: Functionally graded materials, pipe flow, optimumdesign, fluid- structure interaction

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4121 On Optimum Stratification

Authors: M. G. M. Khan, V. D. Prasad, D. K. Rao

Abstract:

In this manuscript, we discuss the problem of determining the optimum stratification of a study (or main) variable based on the auxiliary variable that follows a uniform distribution. If the stratification of survey variable is made using the auxiliary variable it may lead to substantial gains in precision of the estimates. This problem is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP), which turn out to multistage decision problem and is solved using dynamic programming technique.

Keywords: Auxiliary variable, Dynamic programming technique, Nonlinear programming problem, Optimum stratification, Uniform distribution.

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4120 On the Prediction of Transmembrane Helical Segments in Membrane Proteins Based on Wavelet Transform

Authors: Yu Bin, Zhang Yan

Abstract:

The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a new method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1KQG was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. To access the effect of the method, 80 proteins with known 3D-structure from Mptopo database are chosen at random as the test objects (including 325 TMHs), 308 of which can be predicted accurately, the average predicted accuracy is 96.3%. In addition, the above 80 membrane proteins are divided into 13 groups according to their function and type. In particular, the results of the prediction of TMHs of the 13 groups are satisfying.

Keywords: discrete wavelet transform, hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembrane helical segments

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4119 Solving 94-bit ECDLP with 70 Computers in Parallel

Authors: Shunsuke Miyoshi, Yasuyuki Nogami, Takuya Kusaka, Nariyoshi Yamai

Abstract:

Elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem(ECDLP) is one of problems on which the security of pairing-based cryptography is based. This paper considers Pollard’s rho method to evaluate the security of ECDLP on Barreto-Naehrig(BN) curve that is an efficient pairing-friendly curve. Some techniques are proposed to make the rho method efficient. Especially, the group structure on BN curve, distinguished point method, and Montgomery trick are well-known techniques. This paper applies these techniques and shows its optimization. According to the experimental results for which a large-scale parallel system with MySQL is applied, 94-bit ECDLP was solved about 28 hours by parallelizing 71 computers.

Keywords: Pollard’s rho method, BN curve, Montgomery multiplication.

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4118 Innovative Methods of Improving Train Formation in Freight Transport

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

Abstract:

The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology.

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4117 Enhanced Traveling Salesman Problem Solving by Genetic Algorithm Technique (TSPGA)

Authors: Buthainah Fahran Al-Dulaimi, Hamza A. Ali

Abstract:

The well known NP-complete problem of the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is coded in genetic form. A software system is proposed to determine the optimum route for a Traveling Salesman Problem using Genetic Algorithm technique. The system starts from a matrix of the calculated Euclidean distances between the cities to be visited by the traveling salesman and a randomly chosen city order as the initial population. Then new generations are then created repeatedly until the proper path is reached upon reaching a stopping criterion. This search is guided by a solution evaluation function.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, traveling salesman problem solving, optimization.

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4116 External Effects on Dynamic Competitive Model of Domestic Airline and High Speed Rail

Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Yu-Ping Liao

Abstract:

Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, models with different social-economic variables, which are oil price, GDP per capita, CPI and economic growth rate, are compared. From the results, the model with the oil price is better than models with the other social-economic variables.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competitive model, social-economic variables, oil price.

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