Search results for: learning evaluation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4143

Search results for: learning evaluation.

213 A Prediction Model for Dynamic Responses of Building from Earthquake Based on Evolutionary Learning

Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

Abstract:

The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to prevent seismic damage. Structural seismic damage of building is caused by the instantaneous stress concentration which is related with dynamic characteristic of earthquake. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the dynamic responses of building demands significantly high computational cost. To prevent the failure of structural members from the characteristic of the earthquake and the significantly high computational cost for seismic response analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for dynamic responses of building considering specific time length. Through the measured dynamic responses, input and output node of the ANN are formed by the length of specific time, and adopted for the training. In the model, evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN), that radial basis function network (RBFN) is integrated with evolutionary optimization algorithm to find variables in RBF, is implemented. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through an analytical study applying responses from dynamic analysis for multi-degree of freedom system to training data in ERBFNN.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, dynamic response, artificial neural network, radial basis function network, genetic algorithm.

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212 A Communication Signal Recognition Algorithm Based on Holder Coefficient Characteristics

Authors: Hui Zhang, Ye Tian, Fang Ye, Ziming Guo

Abstract:

Communication signal modulation recognition technology is one of the key technologies in the field of modern information warfare. At present, communication signal automatic modulation recognition methods are mainly divided into two major categories. One is the maximum likelihood hypothesis testing method based on decision theory, the other is a statistical pattern recognition method based on feature extraction. Now, the most commonly used is a statistical pattern recognition method, which includes feature extraction and classifier design. With the increasingly complex electromagnetic environment of communications, how to effectively extract the features of various signals at low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is a hot topic for scholars in various countries. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a feature extraction algorithm for the communication signal based on the improved Holder cloud feature. And the extreme learning machine (ELM) is used which aims at the problem of the real-time in the modern warfare to classify the extracted features. The algorithm extracts the digital features of the improved cloud model without deterministic information in a low SNR environment, and uses the improved cloud model to obtain more stable Holder cloud features and the performance of the algorithm is improved. This algorithm addresses the problem that a simple feature extraction algorithm based on Holder coefficient feature is difficult to recognize at low SNR, and it also has a better recognition accuracy. The results of simulations show that the approach in this paper still has a good classification result at low SNR, even when the SNR is -15dB, the recognition accuracy still reaches 76%.

Keywords: Communication signal, feature extraction, holder coefficient, improved cloud model.

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211 Evaluation of Sustainable Business Model Innovation in Increasing the Penetration of Renewable Energy in the Ghana Power Sector

Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

Abstract:

Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to the unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. Thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically 'vertically integrated', with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is the need for increasing renewable energy such as wind and solar in the electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allow any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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210 Neural Network Supervisory Proportional-Integral-Derivative Control of the Pressurized Water Reactor Core Power Load Following Operation

Authors: Derjew Ayele Ejigu, Houde Song, Xiaojing Liu

Abstract:

This work presents the particle swarm optimization trained neural network (PSO-NN) supervisory proportional integral derivative (PID) control method to monitor the pressurized water reactor (PWR) core power for safe operation. The proposed control approach is implemented on the transfer function of the PWR core, which is computed from the state-space model. The PWR core state-space model is designed from the neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, and reactivity models using perturbation around the equilibrium value. The proposed control approach computes the control rod speed to maneuver the core power to track the reference in a closed-loop scheme. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to train the neural network (NN) and to tune the PID simultaneously. The controller performance is examined using integral absolute error, integral time absolute error, integral square error, and integral time square error functions, and the stability of the system is analyzed by using the Bode diagram. The simulation results indicated that the controller shows satisfactory performance to control and track the load power effectively and smoothly as compared to the PSO-PID control technique. This study will give benefit to design a supervisory controller for nuclear engineering research fields for control application.

Keywords: machine learning, neural network, pressurized water reactor, supervisory controller

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209 An Extensible Software Infrastructure for Computer Aided Custom Monitoring of Patients in Smart Homes

Authors: Ritwik Dutta, Marilyn Wolf

Abstract:

This paper describes the tradeoffs and the design from scratch of a self-contained, easy-to-use health dashboard software system that provides customizable data tracking for patients in smart homes. The system is made up of different software modules and comprises a front-end and a back-end component. Built with HTML, CSS, and JavaScript, the front-end allows adding users, logging into the system, selecting metrics, and specifying health goals. The backend consists of a NoSQL Mongo database, a Python script, and a SimpleHTTPServer written in Python. The database stores user profiles and health data in JSON format. The Python script makes use of the PyMongo driver library to query the database and displays formatted data as a daily snapshot of user health metrics against target goals. Any number of standard and custom metrics can be added to the system, and corresponding health data can be fed automatically, via sensor APIs or manually, as text or picture data files. A real-time METAR request API permits correlating weather data with patient health, and an advanced query system is implemented to allow trend analysis of selected health metrics over custom time intervals. Available on the GitHub repository system, the project is free to use for academic purposes of learning and experimenting, or practical purposes by building on it.

Keywords: Flask, Java, JavaScript, health monitoring, long term care, Mongo, Python, smart home, software engineering, webserver.

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208 Ways of Life of Undergraduate Students Based On Sufficiency Economy Philosophy in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University

Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad

Abstract:

This study aimed to analyse the application of sufficiency economy in students’ ways of life on campus at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Data was gathered through 394 questionnaires. The study results found that the majority of students were confident that “where there’s a will, there’s a way.” Overall, the students applied the sufficiency economy at a great level, along with being persons who do not exploit others, were satisfied with living their lives moderately, according to the sufficiency economy. Importance was also given to kindness and generosity. Importantly, students were happy with living according to their individual circumstances and status at the present. They saw the importance of joint life planning, self-development, and self-dependence, always learning to be satisfied with “adequate”. As for their practices and ways of life, socially relational activities rated highly, especially initiation activities for underclassmen at the university and the seniority system, which are suitable for activities on campus. Furthermore, the students knew how to build a career and find supplemental income, knew how to earnestly work according to convention to finish work, and preferred to study elective subjects which directly benefit career-wise. The students’ application of sufficiency economy philosophy principles depended on their lives in their hometowns. The students from the provinces regularly applied sufficiency economy philosophy to their lives, for example, by being frugal, steadfast, determined, avoiding negligence, and making economical spending plans; more so than the students from the capital.

Keywords: Application of Sufficiency Economy Philosophy, Way of Living, Undergraduate Students.

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207 Application of Various Methods for Evaluation of Heavy Metal Pollution in Soils around Agarak Copper-Molybdenum Mine Complex, Armenia

Authors: K. A. Ghazaryan, H. S. Movsesyan, N. P. Ghazaryan

Abstract:

The present study was aimed in assessing the heavy metal pollution of the soils around Agarak copper-molybdenum mine complex and related environmental risks. This mine complex is located in the south-east part of Armenia, and the present study was conducted in 2013. The soils of the five riskiest sites of this region were studied: surroundings of the open mine, the sites adjacent to processing plant of Agarak copper-molybdenum mine complex, surroundings of Darazam active tailing dump, the recultivated tailing dump of “ravine - 2”, and the recultivated tailing dump of “ravine - 3”. The mountain cambisol was the main soil type in the study sites. The level of soil contamination by heavy metals was assessed by Contamination factors (Cf), Degree of contamination (Cd), Geoaccumulation index (I-geo) and Enrichment factor (EF). The distribution pattern of trace metals in the soil profile according to Cf, Cd, I-geo and EF values shows that the soil is much polluted. Almost in all studied sites, Cu, Mo, Pb, and Cd were the main polluting heavy metals, and this was conditioned by Agarak copper-molybdenum mine complex activity. It is necessary to state that the pollution problem becomes pressing as some parts of these highly polluted region are inhabited by population, and agriculture is highly developed there; therefore, heavy metals can be transferred into human bodies through food chains and have direct influence on public health. Since the induced pollution can pose serious threats to public health, further investigations on soil and vegetation pollution are recommended. Finally, Cf calculating based on distance from the pollution source and the wind direction can provide more reasonable results.

Keywords: Agarak copper-molybdenum mine complex, heavy metals, soil contamination, enrichment factor, Armenia.

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206 Teacher Training Course: Conflict Resolution through Mediation

Authors: Csilla M. Szabó

Abstract:

In Hungary, the society has changed a lot for the past 25 years, and these changes could be detected in educational situations as well. The number and the intensity of conflicts have been increased in most fields of life, as well as at schools. Teachers have difficulties to be able to handle school conflicts. What is more, the new net generation, generation Z has values and behavioural patterns different from those of the previous one, which might generate more serious conflicts at school, especially with teachers who were mainly socialising in a traditional teacher – student relationship. In Hungary, the bill CCIV of 2011 declared the foundation of Institutes of Teacher Training in higher education institutes. One of the tasks of the Institutes is to survey the competences and needs of teachers working in public education and to provide further trainings and services for them according to their needs and requirements. This job is supported by the Social Renewal Operative Programs 4.1.2.B. The professors of a college carried out a questionnaire and surveyed the needs and the requirements of teachers working in the region. Based on the results, the professors of the Institute of Teacher Training decided to meet the requirements of teachers and to launch short teacher further training courses in spring 2015. One of the courses is going to focus on school conflict management through mediation. The aim of the pilot course is to provide conflict management techniques for teachers and to present different mediation techniques to them. The theoretical part of the course (5 hours) will enable participants to understand the main points and the advantages of mediation, while the practical part (10 hours) will involve teachers in role plays to learn how to cope with conflict situations applying mediation. We hope if conflicts could be reduced, it would influence school atmosphere in a positive way and the teaching – learning process could be more successful and effective.

Keywords: Conflict resolution, generation Z, mediation, teacher training.

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205 The Use of Knowledge Management Systems and ICT Service Desk Management to Minimize the Digital Divide Experienced in the Museum Sector

Authors: Ruel A. Welch

Abstract:

Since the introduction of ServiceNow, the UK’s Science Museum Group’s (SMG) ICT service desk portal, there has not been an analysis of the tools available to SMG staff for Just-in-time knowledge acquisition (Knowledge Management Systems) and reporting ICT incidents with a focus on an aspect of professional identity namely, gender. Therefore, it is important for SMG to investigate the apparent disparities so that solutions can be derived to minimize this digital divide if one exists. This study is conducted in the milieu of UK museums, galleries, arts, academic, charitable, and cultural heritage sector. It is acknowledged at SMG that there are challenges with keeping up with an ever-changing digital landscape. Subsequently, this entails the rapid upskilling of staff and developing an infrastructure that supports just-in-time technological knowledge acquisition and reporting technology related issues. This problem was addressed by analysing ServiceNow ICT incident reports and reports from knowledge articles from a six-month period from February to July. This study found a statistically significant relationship between gender and reporting an ICT incident. There is also a significant relationship between gender and the priority level of ICT incident. Interestingly, there is no statistically significant relationship between gender and reading knowledge articles. Additionally, there is no statistically significant relationship between gender and reporting an ICT incident related to the knowledge article that was read by staff. The knowledge acquired from this study is useful to service desk management practice as it will help to inform the creation of future knowledge articles and ICT incident reporting processes.

Keywords: digital divide, ICT service desk practice, knowledge management systems, workplace learning

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204 Spatial Clustering Model of Vessel Trajectory to Extract Sailing Routes Based on AIS Data

Authors: Lubna Eljabu, Mohammad Etemad, Stan Matwin

Abstract:

The automatic extraction of shipping routes is advantageous for intelligent traffic management systems to identify events and support decision-making in maritime surveillance. At present, there is a high demand for the extraction of maritime traffic networks that resemble the real traffic of vessels accurately, which is valuable for further analytical processing tasks for vessels trajectories (e.g., naval routing and voyage planning, anomaly detection, destination prediction, time of arrival estimation). With the help of big data and processing huge amounts of vessels’ trajectory data, it is possible to learn these shipping routes from the navigation history of past behaviour of other, similar ships that were travelling in a given area. In this paper, we propose a spatial clustering model of vessels’ trajectories (SPTCLUST) to extract spatial representations of sailing routes from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The whole model consists of three main parts: data preprocessing, path finding, and route extraction, which consists of clustering and representative trajectory extraction. The proposed clustering method provides techniques to overcome the problems of: (i) optimal input parameters selection; (ii) the high complexity of processing a huge volume of multidimensional data; (iii) and the spatial representation of complete representative trajectory detection in the context of trajectory clustering algorithms. The experimental evaluation showed the effectiveness of the proposed model by using a real-world AIS dataset from the Port of Halifax. The results contribute to further understanding of shipping route patterns. This could aid surveillance authorities in stable and sustainable vessel traffic management.

Keywords: Vessel trajectory clustering, trajectory mining, Spatial Clustering, marine intelligent navigation, maritime traffic network extraction, sdailing routes extraction.

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203 A Survey of WhatsApp as a Tool for Instructor-Learner Dialogue, Learner-Content Dialogue, and Learner-Learner Dialogue

Authors: Ebrahim Panah, Muhammad Yasir Babar

Abstract:

Thanks to the development of online technology and social networks, people are able to communicate as well as learn. WhatsApp is a popular social network which is growingly gaining popularity. This app can be used for communication as well as education. It can be used for instructor-learner, learner-learner, and learner-content interactions; however, very little knowledge is available on these potentials of WhatsApp. The current study was undertaken to investigate university students’ perceptions of WhatsApp used as a tool for instructor-learner dialogue, learner-content dialogue, and learner-learner dialogue. The study adopted a survey approach and distributed the questionnaire developed by Google Forms to 54 (11 males and 43 females) university students. The obtained data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. The result of data analysis indicates that students have positive attitudes towards WhatsApp as a tool for Instructor-Learner Dialogue: it easy to reach the lecturer (4.07), the instructor gives me valuable feedback on my assignment (4.02), the instructor is supportive during course discussion and offers continuous support with the class (4.00). Learner-Content Dialogue: WhatsApp allows me to academically engage with lecturers anytime, anywhere (4.00), it helps to send graphics such as pictures or charts directly to the students (3.98), it also provides out of class, extra learning materials and homework (3.96), and Learner-Learner Dialogue: WhatsApp is a good tool for sharing knowledge with others (4.09), WhatsApp allows me to academically engage with peers anytime, anywhere (4.07), and we can interact with others through the use of group discussion (4.02). It was also found that there are significant positive correlations between students’ perceptions of Instructor-Learner Dialogue (ILD), Learner-Content Dialogue (LCD), Learner-Learner Dialogue (LLD) and WhatsApp Application in classroom. The findings of the study have implications for lectures, policy makers and curriculum developers.

Keywords: Instructor-learner dialogue, learners-contents dialogue, learner-learner dialogue, WhatsApp.

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202 Tribological Aspects of Advanced Roll Material in Cold Rolling of Stainless Steel

Authors: Mohammed Tahir, Jonas Lagergren

Abstract:

Vancron 40, a nitrided powder metallurgical tool Steel, is used in cold work applications where the predominant failure mechanisms are adhesive wear or galling. Typical applications of Vancron 40 are among others fine blanking, cold extrusion, deep drawing and cold work rolls for cluster mills. Vancron 40 positive results for cold work rolls for cluster mills and as a tool for some severe metal forming process makes it competitive compared to other type of work rolls that require higher precision, among others in cold rolling of thin stainless steel, which required high surface finish quality. In this project, three roll materials for cold rolling of stainless steel strip was examined, Vancron 40, Narva 12B (a high-carbon, high-chromium tool steel alloyed with tungsten) and Supra 3 (a Chromium-molybdenum tungsten-vanadium alloyed high speed steel). The purpose of this project was to study the depth profiles of the ironed stainless steel strips, emergence of galling and to study the lubrication performance used by steel industries. Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine scratch of the strip, galling and surface roughness of the roll materials under severe tribological conditions. The critical sliding length for onset of galling was estimated for stainless steel with four different lubricants. Laboratory experiments result of performance evaluation of resistance capability of rolls toward adhesive wear under severe conditions for low and high reductions. Vancron 40 in combination with cold rolling lubricant gave good surface quality, prevents galling of metal surfaces and good bearing capacity.

Keywords: Adhesive wear, Cold rolling, Lubricant, Stainless steel, Surface finish, Vancron 40.

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201 Memristor-A Promising Candidate for Neural Circuits in Neuromorphic Computing Systems

Authors: Juhi Faridi, Mohd. Ajmal Kafeel

Abstract:

The advancements in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology has led to an evolution of an intelligent era. Neural networks, having the computational power and learning ability similar to the brain is one of the key AI technologies. Neuromorphic computing system (NCS) consists of the synaptic device, neuronal circuit, and neuromorphic architecture. Memristor are a promising candidate for neuromorphic computing systems, but when it comes to neuromorphic computing, the conductance behavior of the synaptic memristor or neuronal memristor needs to be studied thoroughly in order to fathom the neuroscience or computer science. Furthermore, there is a need of more simulation work for utilizing the existing device properties and providing guidance to the development of future devices for different performance requirements. Hence, development of NCS needs more simulation work to make use of existing device properties. This work aims to provide an insight to build neuronal circuits using memristors to achieve a Memristor based NCS.  Here we throw a light on the research conducted in the field of memristors for building analog and digital circuits in order to motivate the research in the field of NCS by building memristor based neural circuits for advanced AI applications. This literature is a step in the direction where we describe the various Key findings about memristors and its analog and digital circuits implemented over the years which can be further utilized in implementing the neuronal circuits in the NCS. This work aims to help the electronic circuit designers to understand how the research progressed in memristors and how these findings can be used in implementing the neuronal circuits meant for the recent progress in the NCS.

Keywords: Analog circuits, digital circuits, memristors, neuromorphic computing systems.

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200 Combined Sewer Overflow forecasting with Feed-forward Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Achela K. Fernando, Xiujuan Zhang, Peter F. Kinley

Abstract:

A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system. This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method alternative to the common practice of developing a complete conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the historical data. The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to be quite poor.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Back-propagationlearning, Combined sewer overflows, Forecasting.

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199 Web-Based Cognitive Writing Instruction (WeCWI): A Theoretical-and-Pedagogical e-Framework for Language Development

Authors: Boon Yih Mah

Abstract:

Web-based Cognitive Writing Instruction (WeCWI)’s contribution towards language development can be divided into linguistic and non-linguistic perspectives. In linguistic perspective, WeCWI focuses on the literacy and language discoveries, while the cognitive and psychological discoveries are the hubs in non-linguistic perspective. In linguistic perspective, WeCWI draws attention to free reading and enterprises, which are supported by the language acquisition theories. Besides, the adoption of process genre approach as a hybrid guided writing approach fosters literacy development. Literacy and language developments are interconnected in the communication process; hence, WeCWI encourages meaningful discussion based on the interactionist theory that involves input, negotiation, output, and interactional feedback. Rooted in the elearning interaction-based model, WeCWI promotes online discussion via synchronous and asynchronous communications, which allows interactions happened among the learners, instructor, and digital content. In non-linguistic perspective, WeCWI highlights on the contribution of reading, discussion, and writing towards cognitive development. Based on the inquiry models, learners’ critical thinking is fostered during information exploration process through interaction and questioning. Lastly, to lower writing anxiety, WeCWI develops the instructional tool with supportive features to facilitate the writing process. To bring a positive user experience to the learner, WeCWI aims to create the instructional tool with different interface designs based on two different types of perceptual learning style.

Keywords: WeCWI, literacy discovery, language discovery, cognitive discovery, psychological discovery.

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198 Methods and Algorithms of Ensuring Data Privacy in AI-Based Healthcare Systems and Technologies

Authors: Omar Farshad Jeelani, Makaire Njie, Viktoriia M. Korzhuk

Abstract:

Recently, the application of AI-powered algorithms in healthcare continues to flourish. Particularly, access to healthcare information, including patient health history, diagnostic data, and PII (Personally Identifiable Information) is paramount in the delivery of efficient patient outcomes. However, as the exchange of healthcare information between patients and healthcare providers through AI-powered solutions increases, protecting a person’s information and their privacy has become even more important. Arguably, the increased adoption of healthcare AI has resulted in a significant concentration on the security risks and protection measures to the security and privacy of healthcare data, leading to escalated analyses and enforcement. Since these challenges are brought by the use of AI-based healthcare solutions to manage healthcare data, AI-based data protection measures are used to resolve the underlying problems. Consequently, these projects propose AI-powered safeguards and policies/laws to protect the privacy of healthcare data. The project present the best-in-school techniques used to preserve data privacy of AI-powered healthcare applications. Popular privacy-protecting methods like Federated learning, cryptography techniques, differential privacy methods, and hybrid methods are discussed together with potential cyber threats, data security concerns, and prospects. Also, the project discusses some of the relevant data security acts/laws that govern the collection, storage, and processing of healthcare data to guarantee owners’ privacy is preserved. This inquiry discusses various gaps and uncertainties associated with healthcare AI data collection procedures, and identifies potential correction/mitigation measures.

Keywords: Data privacy, artificial intelligence, healthcare AI, data sharing, healthcare organizations.

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197 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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196 Prediction of Seismic Damage Using Scalar Intensity Measures Based On Integration of Spectral Values

Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

Abstract:

A key issue in seismic risk analysis within the context of Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering is the evaluation of the expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. The assessment of the seismic performance strongly depends on the choice of the seismic Intensity Measure (IM), which quantifies the characteristics of a ground motion that are important to the nonlinear structural response. Several conventional IMs of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them has been proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage. Therefore, alternative, scalar intensity measures, which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. Some of these IMs are based on integration of spectral values over a range of periods, in an attempt to account for the information that the shape of the acceleration, velocity or displacement spectrum provides. The adequacy of a number of these IMs in predicting the structural damage of 3D R/C buildings is investigated in the present paper. The investigated IMs, some of which are structure specific and some are non structure-specific, are defined via integration of spectral values. To achieve this purpose three symmetric in plan R/C buildings are studied. The buildings are subjected to 59 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along the structural axes. The response is determined by nonlinear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures are correlated with seven scalar ground motion IMs. The comparative assessment of the results revealed that the structure-specific IMs present higher correlation with the seismic damage of the three buildings. However, the adequacy of the IMs for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: Damage measures, Bidirectional excitation, Spectral based IMs, R/C buildings.

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195 Performance Evaluation and Plugging Characteristics of Controllable Self-Aggregating Colloidal Particle Profile Control Agent

Authors: Zhiguo Yang, Xiangan Yue, Minglu Shao, Yang Yue, Tianqi Yue

Abstract:

In low permeability reservoirs, the reservoir pore throat is small and the micro heterogeneity is prominent. Conventional microsphere profile control agents generally have good injectability but poor plugging effect; however, profile control agents with good plugging effect generally have poor injectability, which makes it difficult for agent to realize deep profile control of reservoir. To solve this problem, styrene and acrylamide were used as monomers in the laboratory. Emulsion polymerization was used to prepare the Controllable Self-Aggregating Colloidal Particle (CSA), which was rich in amide group. The CSA microsphere dispersion solution with a particle diameter smaller than the pore throat diameter was injected into the reservoir to ensure that the profile control agent had good inject ability. After dispersing the CSA microsphere to the deep part of the reservoir, the CSA microspheres dispersed in static for a certain period of time will self-aggregate into large-sized particle clusters to achieve plugging of hypertonic channels. The CSA microsphere has the characteristics of low expansion and avoids shear fracture in the process of migration. It can be observed by transmission electron microscope that CSA microspheres still maintain regular and uniform spherical and core-shell heterogeneous structure after aging at 100 ºC for 35 days, and CSA microspheres have good thermal stability. The results of bottle test showed that with the increase of cation concentration, the aggregation time of CSA microspheres gradually shortened, and the influence of divalent cations was greater than that of monovalent ions. Physical simulation experiments show that CSA microspheres have good injectability, and the aggregated CSA particle clusters can produce effective plugging and migrate to the deep part of the reservoir for profile control.

Keywords: Heterogeneous reservoir, deep profile control, emulsion polymerization, colloidal particles, plugging characteristic.

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194 Prediction Modeling of Alzheimer’s Disease and Its Prodromal Stages from Multimodal Data with Missing Values

Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

Abstract:

A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme Gradient Boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impairment, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest.

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193 On the Need to have an Additional Methodology for the Psychological Product Measurement and Evaluation

Authors: Corneliu Sofronie, Roxana Zubcov

Abstract:

Cognitive Science appeared about 40 years ago, subsequent to the challenge of the Artificial Intelligence, as common territory for several scientific disciplines such as: IT, mathematics, psychology, neurology, philosophy, sociology, and linguistics. The new born science was justified by the complexity of the problems related to the human knowledge on one hand, and on the other by the fact that none of the above mentioned sciences could explain alone the mental phenomena. Based on the data supplied by the experimental sciences such as psychology or neurology, models of the human mind operation are built in the cognition science. These models are implemented in computer programs and/or electronic circuits (specific to the artificial intelligence) – cognitive systems – whose competences and performances are compared to the human ones, leading to the psychology and neurology data reinterpretation, respectively to the construction of new models. During these processes if psychology provides the experimental basis, philosophy and mathematics provides the abstraction level utterly necessary for the intermission of the mentioned sciences. The ongoing general problematic of the cognitive approach provides two important types of approach: the computational one, starting from the idea that the mental phenomenon can be reduced to 1 and 0 type calculus operations, and the connection one that considers the thinking products as being a result of the interaction between all the composing (included) systems. In the field of psychology measurements in the computational register use classical inquiries and psychometrical tests, generally based on calculus methods. Deeming things from both sides that are representing the cognitive science, we can notice a gap in psychological product measurement possibilities, regarded from the connectionist perspective, that requires the unitary understanding of the quality – quantity whole. In such approach measurement by calculus proves to be inefficient. Our researches, deployed for longer than 20 years, lead to the conclusion that measuring by forms properly fits to the connectionism laws and principles.

Keywords: complementary methodology, connection approach, networks without scaling, quantum psychology.

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192 Investigation of Improved Chaotic Signal Tracking by Echo State Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron via Training of Extended Kalman Filter Approach

Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

This paper presents a prediction performance of feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Echo State Networks (ESN) trained with extended Kalman filter. Feedforward neural networks and ESN are powerful neural networks which can track and predict nonlinear signals. However, their tracking performance depends on the specific signals or data sets, having the risk of instability accompanied by large error. In this study we explore this process by applying different network size and leaking rate for prediction of nonlinear or chaotic signals in MLP neural networks. Major problems of ESN training such as the problem of initialization of the network and improvement in the prediction performance are tackled. The influence of coefficient of activation function in the hidden layer and other key parameters are investigated by simulation results. Extended Kalman filter is employed in order to improve the sequential and regulation learning rate of the feedforward neural networks. This training approach has vital features in the training of the network when signals have chaotic or non-stationary sequential pattern. Minimization of the variance in each step of the computation and hence smoothing of tracking were obtained by examining the results, indicating satisfactory tracking characteristics for certain conditions. In addition, simulation results confirmed satisfactory performance of both of the two neural networks with modified parameterization in tracking of the nonlinear signals.

Keywords: Feedforward neural networks, nonlinear signal prediction, echo state neural networks approach, leaking rates, capacity of neural networks.

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191 Production Process for Diesel Fuel Components Polyoxymethylene Dimethyl Ethers from Methanol and Formaldehyde Solution

Authors: Xiangjun Li, Huaiyuan Tian, Wujie Zhang, Dianhua Liu

Abstract:

Polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (PODEn) as clean diesel additive can improve the combustion efficiency and quality of diesel fuel and alleviate the problem of atmospheric pollution. Considering synthetic routes, PODE production from methanol and formaldehyde is regarded as the most economical and promising synthetic route. However, methanol used for synthesizing PODE can produce water, which causes the loss of active center of catalyst and hydrolysis of PODEn in the production process. Macroporous strong acidic cation exchange resin catalyst was prepared, which has comparative advantages over other common solid acid catalysts in terms of stability and catalytic efficiency for synthesizing PODE. Catalytic reactions were carried out under 353 K, 1 MPa and 3mL·gcat-1·h-1 in a fixed bed reactor. Methanol conversion and PODE3-6 selectivity reached 49.91% and 23.43%, respectively. Catalyst lifetime evaluation showed that resin catalyst retained its catalytic activity for 20 days without significant changes and catalytic activity of completely deactivated resin catalyst can basically return to previous level by simple acid regeneration. The acid exchange capacities of original and deactivated catalyst were 2.5191 and 0.0979 mmol·g-1, respectively, while regenerated catalyst reached 2.0430 mmol·g-1, indicating that the main reason for resin catalyst deactivation is that Brønsted acid sites of original resin catalyst were temporarily replaced by non-hydrogen ion cations. A separation process consisting of extraction and distillation for PODE3-6 product was designed for separation of water and unreacted formaldehyde from reactive mixture and purification of PODE3-6, respectively. The concentration of PODE3-6 in final product can reach up to 97%. These results indicate that the scale-up production of PODE3-6 from methanol and formaldehyde solution is feasible.

Keywords: Inactivation, polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers, separation process, sulfonic cation exchange resin.

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190 Turkey in Minds: Cognitive and Social Representations of "East" and "West"

Authors: Feyzan Tuzkaya, Nihan S. Soylu, Çağlar Solak, Hilal Peker, Mehmet Peker, Kemal Özeralp, Ceren Mete, Ezgi Mehmetoğlu, Mehmet Karasu, Cihan Elçi, Ece Akca, Melek Göregenli

Abstract:

Perception, evaluation and representation of the environment have been the subject of many disciplines including psychology, geography and architecture. In environmental and social psychology literature there are several evidences which suggest that cognitive representations about a place consisted of not only geographic items but also social and cultural. Mental representations of residence area or a country are influenced and determined by social-demographics, the physical and social context. Thus, all mental representations of a given place are also social representations. Cognitive maps are the main and common instruments that are used to identify spatial images and the difference between physical and subjective environments. The aim of the current study is investigating the mental and social representations of Turkey in university students’ minds. Data was collected from 249 university students from different departments (i.e. psychology, geography, history, tourism departments) of Ege University. Participants were requested to reflect Turkey in their mind onto the paper drawing sketch maps. According to the results, cognitive maps showed geographic aspects of Turkey as well as the context of symbolic, cultural and political reality of Turkey. That is to say, these maps had many symbolic and verbal items related to critics on social and cultural problems, ongoing ethnic and political conflicts, and actual political agenda of Turkey. Additionally, one of main differentiations in these representations appeared in terms of the East and West side of the Turkey, and the representations of the East and West was varied correspondingly participants’ cultural background, their ethnic values, and where they have born. The results of the study were discussed in environmental and social psychological perspective considering cultural and social values of Turkey and current political circumstances of the country.

Keywords: Cognitive maps, East and West, politics, social representations, Turkey.

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189 Morphemic Analysis Awareness: Impact on ESL Students’ Vocabulary Learning Strategy

Authors: Chandrakala Varatharajoo, Adelina Binti Asmawi, Nabeel Abdallah Mohammad Abedalaziz

Abstract:

The research explored the effect of morphemic analysis awareness on ESL secondary school students’ vocabulary acquisition. The quasi-experimental study was conducted with 100 ESL secondary school students in two experimental groups (inflectional and derivational) and one control group. The students’ vocabulary acquisition was assessed through two measures: Morph-Analysis Test and Morph-Vocabulary Test in the pretest and posttest before and after an intervention programme. Results of ANCOVA revealed that both the experimental groups achieved a significant score in Morph- Analysis Test and Vocabulary-Morphemic Test. However, the inflectional group obtained a fairly higher score than the derivational group. Thus, the findings of the research are discussed in two main areas. First, individual instructions of two types of morphemic awareness have contributed significant results on inflectional and derivational awareness among the ESL secondary school students. Nevertheless, derivational morphology achieved a significant but relatively smaller amount of effect on secondary school students’ morphological awareness compared to inflectional morphology in this research. Second finding showed that the awareness of inflectional and derivational morphology was found significantly related to vocabulary achievement of ESL secondary school students. Nevertheless, inflectional morphemic awareness had higher significant effect on ESL secondary school students’ vocabulary acquisition. Despite these findings, the study implies that morphemic analysis awareness can serve as an alternative strategy for ESL secondary school students in acquiring English vocabulary.

Keywords: Morphemic analysis, vocabulary, ESL students.

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188 Evaluation of Natural Drainage Flow Pattern, Necessary for Flood Control, Using Digitized Topographic Information: A Case Study of Bayelsa State Nigeria

Authors: Collins C. Chiemeke

Abstract:

The need to evaluate and understand the natural drainage pattern in a flood prone, and fast developing environment is of paramount importance. This information will go a long way to help the town planners to determine the drainage pattern, road networks and areas where prominent structures are to be located. This research work was carried out with the aim of studying the Bayelsa landscape topography using digitized topographic information, and to model the natural drainage flow pattern that will aid the understanding and constructions of workable drainages. To achieve this, digitize information of elevation and coordinate points were extracted from a global imagery map. The extracted information was modeled into 3D surfaces. The result revealed that the average elevation for Bayelsa State is 12 m above sea level. The highest elevation is 28 m, and the lowest elevation 0 m, along the coastline. In Yenagoa the capital city of Bayelsa were a detail survey was carried out showed that average elevation is 15 m, the highest elevation is 25 m and lowest is 3 m above the mean sea level. The regional elevation in Bayelsa, showed a gradation decrease from the North Eastern zone to the South Western Zone. Yenagoa showed an observed elevation lineament, were low depression is flanked by high elevation that runs from the North East to the South west. Hence, future drainages in Yenagoa should be directed from the high elevation, from South East toward the North West and from the North West toward South East, to the point of convergence which is at the center that flows from South East toward the North West. Bayelsa when considered on a regional Scale, the flow pattern is from the North East to the South West, and also North South. It is recommended that in the event of any large drainage construction at municipal scale, it should be directed from North East to the South West or from North to South. Secondly, detail survey should be carried out to ascertain the local topography and the drainage pattern before the design and construction of any drainage system in any part of Bayelsa.

Keywords: Bayelsa, Digitized Topographic Information, Drainage, Flood.

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187 Influence of Thermo-fluid-dynamic Parameters on Fluidics in an Expanding Thermal Plasma Deposition Chamber

Authors: G. Zuppardi, F. Romano

Abstract:

Technology of thin film deposition is of interest in many engineering fields, from electronic manufacturing to corrosion protective coating. A typical deposition process, like that developed at the University of Eindhoven, considers the deposition of a thin, amorphous film of C:H or of Si:H on the substrate, using the Expanding Thermal arc Plasma technique. In this paper a computing procedure is proposed to simulate the flow field in a deposition chamber similar to that at the University of Eindhoven and a sensitivity analysis is carried out in terms of: precursor mass flow rate, electrical power, supplied to the torch and fluid-dynamic characteristics of the plasma jet, using different nozzles. To this purpose a deposition chamber similar in shape, dimensions and operating parameters to the above mentioned chamber is considered. Furthermore, a method is proposed for a very preliminary evaluation of the film thickness distribution on the substrate. The computing procedure relies on two codes working in tandem; the output from the first code is the input to the second one. The first code simulates the flow field in the torch, where Argon is ionized according to the Saha-s equation, and in the nozzle. The second code simulates the flow field in the chamber. Due to high rarefaction level, this is a (commercial) Direct Simulation Monte Carlo code. Gas is a mixture of 21 chemical species and 24 chemical reactions from Argon plasma and Acetylene are implemented in both codes. The effects of the above mentioned operating parameters are evaluated and discussed by 2-D maps and profiles of some important thermo-fluid-dynamic parameters, as per Mach number, velocity and temperature. Intensity, position and extension of the shock wave are evaluated and the influence of the above mentioned test conditions on the film thickness and uniformity of distribution are also evaluated.

Keywords: Deposition chamber, Direct Simulation Mote Carlo method (DSMC), Plasma chemistry, Rarefied gas dynamics.

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186 Information Overload, Information Literacy and Use of Technology by Students

Authors: Elena Krelja Kurelović, Jasminka Tomljanović, Vlatka Davidović

Abstract:

The development of web technologies and mobile devices makes creating, accessing, using and sharing information or communicating with each other simpler every day. However, while the amount of information constantly increasing it is becoming harder to effectively organize and find quality information despite the availability of web search engines, filtering and indexing tools. Although digital technologies have overall positive impact on students’ lives, frequent use of these technologies and digital media enriched with dynamic hypertext and hypermedia content, as well as multitasking, distractions caused by notifications, calls or messages; can decrease the attention span, make thinking, memorizing and learning more difficult, which can lead to stress and mental exhaustion. This is referred to as “information overload”, “information glut” or “information anxiety”. Objective of this study is to determine whether students show signs of information overload and to identify the possible predictors. Research was conducted using a questionnaire developed for the purpose of this study. The results show that students frequently use technology (computers, gadgets and digital media), while they show moderate level of information literacy. They have sometimes experienced symptoms of information overload. According to the statistical analysis, higher frequency of technology use and lower level of information literacy are correlated with larger information overload. The multiple regression analysis has confirmed that the combination of these two independent variables has statistically significant predictive capacity for information overload. Therefore, the information science teachers should pay attention to improving the level of students’ information literacy and educate them about the risks of excessive technology use.

Keywords: Information overload, technology use, digital media, information literacy, students.

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185 Managers’ Capacity Building for Institutional Sustainability Performance

Authors: Analiza Acuña-Villacorte

Abstract:

The Institutional Sustainability Performance (ISP) of State Universities and Colleges (SUCs) in the Philippines reveals the level of compliance and fidelity of the latter to the mandates of the state. This performance evaluation procedure aims to perpetually monitor and sustain the quality of services provided by the state institutions in the country. Importantly, the SUC level rating is one of the key indicators of the merit system adopted by the state to give incentives to government institutions. With the crucial role of the ISP and SUC level in the performance of an institution and in sustaining quality assurance, this study theorized that the top managers’ capacity to influence is the critical factor in meeting the expectations of the state. This study assessed the top managers’ capacity to influence. The hypothesis in this study proved that leadership style of top managers has significant relationship to the managers’ capacity to influence for institutional sustainability performance. Thus, the subjects of this study were restricted only to the State Universities and Colleges (SUC) that qualified in the top 20 Institutional Sustainability Performance; the digital governance performance, and the SUC leveling status nationwide. The top managers and their subordinates with doctorate of Bulacan State University and Bataan Peninsula State University whose programs have been consistently submitted to accreditation and were ranked Levels III and IV were subjected and participated to the study. This study assessed the top managers’ capacity to influence. The hypothesis in this study proved that leadership style of top managers has significant relationship to the managers’ capacity to influence for institutional sustainability performance. Thus, the subjects of this study were restricted only to the State Universities and Colleges (SUC) that qualified in the top 20 Institutional Sustainability Performance; the digital governance performance, and the SUC leveling status nationwide. The top managers and their subordinates with doctorate of Bulacan State University and Bataan Peninsula State University whose programs have been consistently submitted to accreditation and were ranked Levels III and IV were subjected and participated to the study.

Keywords: Capacity to Influence, Descriptive Design, Institutional Sustainability Performance, Management.

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184 Development System for Emotion Detection Based on Brain Signals and Facial Images

Authors: Suprijanto, Linda Sari, Vebi Nadhira , IGN. Merthayasa. Farida I.M

Abstract:

Detection of human emotions has many potential applications. One of application is to quantify attentiveness audience in order evaluate acoustic quality in concern hall. The subjective audio preference that based on from audience is used. To obtain fairness evaluation of acoustic quality, the research proposed system for multimodal emotion detection; one modality based on brain signals that measured using electroencephalogram (EEG) and the second modality is sequences of facial images. In the experiment, an audio signal was customized which consist of normal and disorder sounds. Furthermore, an audio signal was played in order to stimulate positive/negative emotion feedback of volunteers. EEG signal from temporal lobes, i.e. T3 and T4 was used to measured brain response and sequence of facial image was used to monitoring facial expression during volunteer hearing audio signal. On EEG signal, feature was extracted from change information in brain wave, particularly in alpha and beta wave. Feature of facial expression was extracted based on analysis of motion images. We implement an advance optical flow method to detect the most active facial muscle form normal to other emotion expression that represented in vector flow maps. The reduce problem on detection of emotion state, vector flow maps are transformed into compass mapping that represents major directions and velocities of facial movement. The results showed that the power of beta wave is increasing when disorder sound stimulation was given, however for each volunteer was giving different emotion feedback. Based on features derived from facial face images, an optical flow compass mapping was promising to use as additional information to make decision about emotion feedback.

Keywords: Multimodal Emotion Detection, EEG, Facial Image, Optical Flow, compass mapping, Brain Wave

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