Search results for: behavior modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3951

Search results for: behavior modeling

171 Pesticides Use in Rural Settings in Romania

Authors: Anca E. Gurzau, Alexandru Coman, Eugen S. Gurzau, Marinela Penes, Daniela Dumitrescu, DorinMarchean, Ioan Chera

Abstract:

The environment pollution with pesticides and heavy metals is a recognized problem nowadays, with extension to the global scale the tendency of amplification. Even with all the progress in the environmental field, both in the emphasize of the effect of the pollutants upon health, the linked studies environment-health are insufficient, not only in Romania but all over the world also. We aim to describe the particular situation in Romania regarding the uncontrolled use of pesticides, to identify and evaluate the risk zones for health and the environment in Romania, with the final goal of designing adequate programs for reduction and control of the risk sources. An exploratory study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the pesticide use problem in a population living in Saliste, a rural setting in Transylvania, Romania. The significant stakeholders in Saliste region were interviewed and a sample from the population living in Saliste area was selected to fill in a designed questionnaire. All the selected participants declared that they used pesticides in their activities for more than one purpose. They declared they annually applied pesticides for a period of time between 11 and 30 years, from 5 to 9 days per year on average, mainly on crops situated at some distance from the houses but high risk behavior was identified as the volunteers declared the use of pesticides in the backyard gardens, near their homes, where children were playing. The pesticide applicators did not have the necessary knowledge about safety and exposure. The health data must be correlated with exposure biomarkers in attempt to identify the possible health effects of the pesticides exposure. Future plans include educational campaigns to raise the awareness of the population on the danger of uncontrolled use of pesticides.

Keywords: Pesticides, health effects, Romania, Saliste.

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170 Effect of Cladding Direction on Residual Stress Distribution in Laser Cladded Rails

Authors: Taposh Roy, Anna Paradowska, Ralph Abrahams, Quan Lai, Michael Law, Peter Mutton, Mehdi Soodi, Wenyi Yan

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In this investigation, a laser cladding process with a powder feeding was used to deposit stainless steel 410L (high strength, excellent resistance to abrasion and corrosion, and great laser compatibility) onto railhead (higher strength, heat treated hypereutectoid rail grade manufactured in accordance with the requirements of European standard EN 13674 Part 1 for R400HT grade), to investigate the development and controllability of process-induced residual stress in the cladding, heat-affected zone (HAZ) and substrate and to analyse their correlation with hardness profile during two different laser cladding directions (across and along the track). Residual stresses were analysed by neutron diffraction at OPAL reactor, ANSTO. Neutron diffraction was carried out on the samples in longitudinal (parallel to the rail), transverse (perpendicular to the rail) and normal (through thickness) directions with high spatial resolution through the thickness. Due to the thick rail and thin cladding, 4 mm thick reference samples were prepared from every specimen by Electric Discharge Machining (EDM). Metallography across the laser claded sample revealed four distinct zones: The clad zone, the dilution zone, HAZ and the substrate. Compressive residual stresses were found in the clad zone and tensile residual stress in the dilution zone and HAZ. Laser cladding in longitudinally cladding induced higher tensile stress in the HAZ, whereas transversely cladding rail showed lower tensile behavior.

Keywords: Laser cladding, residual stress, neutron diffraction, HAZ.

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169 Design and Modeling of Human Middle Ear for Harmonic Response Analysis

Authors: Shende Suraj Balu, A. B. Deoghare, K. M. Pandey

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The human middle ear (ME) is a delicate and vital organ. It has a complex structure that performs various functions such as receiving sound pressure and producing vibrations of eardrum and propagating it to inner ear. It consists of Tympanic Membrane (TM), three auditory ossicles, various ligament structures and muscles. Incidents such as traumata, infections, ossification of ossicular structures and other pathologies may damage the ME organs. The conditions can be surgically treated by employing prosthesis. However, the suitability of the prosthesis needs to be examined in advance prior to the surgery. Few decades ago, this issue was addressed and analyzed by developing an equivalent representation either in the form of spring mass system, electrical system using R-L-C circuit or developing an approximated CAD model. But, nowadays a three-dimensional ME model can be constructed using micro X-Ray Computed Tomography (μCT) scan data. Moreover, the concern about patient specific integrity pertaining to the disease can be examined well in advance. The current research work emphasizes to develop the ME model from the stacks of μCT images which are used as input file to MIMICS Research 19.0 (Materialise Interactive Medical Image Control System) software. A stack of CT images is converted into geometrical surface model to build accurate morphology of ME. The work is further extended to understand the dynamic behaviour of Harmonic response of the stapes footplate and umbo for different sound pressure levels applied at lateral side of eardrum using finite element approach. The pathological condition Cholesteatoma of ME is investigated to obtain peak to peak displacement of stapes footplate and umbo. Apart from this condition, other pathologies, mainly, changes in the stiffness of stapedial ligament, TM thickness and ossicular chain separation and fixation are also explored. The developed model of ME for pathologies is validated by comparing the results available in the literatures and also with the results of a normal ME to calculate the percentage loss in hearing capability.

Keywords: Computed tomography, human middle ear, harmonic response, pathologies, tympanic membrane.

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168 Surfactant Stabilized Nanoemulsion: Characterization and Application in Enhanced Oil Recovery

Authors: Ajay Mandal, Achinta Bera

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Nanoemulsions are a class of emulsions with a droplet size in the range of 50–500 nm and have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years because it is unique characteristics. The physicochemical properties of nanoemulsion suggests that it can be successfully used to recover the residual oil which is trapped in the fine pore of reservoir rock by capillary forces after primary and secondary recovery. Oil-in-water nanoemulsion which can be formed by high-energy emulsification techniques using specific surfactants can reduce oil-water interfacial tension (IFT) by 3-4 orders of magnitude. The present work is aimed on characterization of oil-inwater nanoemulsion in terms of its phase behavior, morphological studies; interfacial energy; ability to reduce the interfacial tension and understanding the mechanisms of mobilization and displacement of entrapped oil blobs by lowering interfacial tension both at the macroscopic and microscopic level. In order to investigate the efficiency of oil-water nanoemulsion in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), experiments were performed to characterize the emulsion in terms of their physicochemical properties and size distribution of the dispersed oil droplet in water phase. Synthetic mineral oil and a series of surfactants were used to prepare oil-in-water emulsions. Characterization of emulsion shows that it follows pseudo-plastic behaviour and drop size of dispersed oil phase follows lognormal distribution. Flooding experiments were also carried out in a sandpack system to evaluate the effectiveness of the nanoemulsion as displacing fluid for enhanced oil recovery. Substantial additional recoveries (more than 25% of original oil in place) over conventional water flooding were obtained in the present investigation.

Keywords: Nanoemulsion, Characterization, Enhanced Oil Recovery, Particle Size Distribution

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167 Methodology for Quantifying the Meaning of Information in Biological Systems

Authors: Richard L. Summers

Abstract:

The advanced computational analysis of biological systems is becoming increasingly dependent upon an understanding of the information-theoretic structure of the materials, energy and interactive processes that comprise those systems. The stability and survival of these living systems is fundamentally contingent upon their ability to acquire and process the meaning of information concerning the physical state of its biological continuum (biocontinuum). The drive for adaptive system reconciliation of a divergence from steady state within this biocontinuum can be described by an information metric-based formulation of the process for actionable knowledge acquisition that incorporates the axiomatic inference of Kullback-Leibler information minimization driven by survival replicator dynamics. If the mathematical expression of this process is the Lagrangian integrand for any change within the biocontinuum then it can also be considered as an action functional for the living system. In the direct method of Lyapunov, such a summarizing mathematical formulation of global system behavior based on the driving forces of energy currents and constraints within the system can serve as a platform for the analysis of stability. As the system evolves in time in response to biocontinuum perturbations, the summarizing function then conveys information about its overall stability. This stability information portends survival and therefore has absolute existential meaning for the living system. The first derivative of the Lyapunov energy information function will have a negative trajectory toward a system steady state if the driving force is dissipating. By contrast, system instability leading to system dissolution will have a positive trajectory. The direction and magnitude of the vector for the trajectory then serves as a quantifiable signature of the meaning associated with the living system’s stability information, homeostasis and survival potential.

Keywords: Semiotic meaning, Shannon information, Lyapunov, living systems.

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166 Fractal Dimension of Breast Cancer Cell Migration in a Wound Healing Assay

Authors: R. Sullivan, T. Holden, G. Tremberger, Jr, E. Cheung, C. Branch, J. Burrero, G. Surpris, S. Quintana, A. Rameau, N. Gadura, H. Yao, R. Subramaniam, P. Schneider, S. A. Rotenberg, P. Marchese, A. Flamhlolz, D. Lieberman, T. Cheung

Abstract:

Migration in breast cancer cell wound healing assay had been studied using image fractal dimension analysis. The migration of MDA-MB-231 cells (highly motile) in a wound healing assay was captured using time-lapse phase contrast video microscopy and compared to MDA-MB-468 cell migration (moderately motile). The Higuchi fractal method was used to compute the fractal dimension of the image intensity fluctuation along a single pixel width region parallel to the wound. The near-wound region fractal dimension was found to decrease three times faster in the MDA-MB- 231 cells initially as compared to the less cancerous MDA-MB-468 cells. The inner region fractal dimension was found to be fairly constant for both cell types in time and suggests a wound influence range of about 15 cell layer. The box-counting fractal dimension method was also used to study region of interest (ROI). The MDAMB- 468 ROI area fractal dimension was found to decrease continuously up to 7 hours. The MDA-MB-231 ROI area fractal dimension was found to increase and is consistent with the behavior of a HGF-treated MDA-MB-231 wound healing assay posted in the public domain. A fractal dimension based capacity index has been formulated to quantify the invasiveness of the MDA-MB-231 cells in the perpendicular-to-wound direction. Our results suggest that image intensity fluctuation fractal dimension analysis can be used as a tool to quantify cell migration in terms of cancer severity and treatment responses.

Keywords: Higuchi fractal dimension, box-counting fractal dimension, cancer cell migration, wound healing.

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165 Evaluation of Heat Transfer and Entropy Generation by Al2O3-Water Nanofluid

Authors: Houda Jalali, Hassan Abbassi

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In this numerical work, natural convection and entropy generation of Al2O3–water nanofluid in square cavity have been studied. A two-dimensional steady laminar natural convection in a differentially heated square cavity of length L, filled with a nanofluid is investigated numerically. The horizontal walls are considered adiabatic. Vertical walls corresponding to x=0 and x=L are respectively maintained at hot temperature, Th and cold temperature, Tc. The resolution is performed by the CFD code "FLUENT" in combination with GAMBIT as mesh generator. These simulations are performed by maintaining the Rayleigh numbers varied as 103 ≤ Ra ≤ 106, while the solid volume fraction varied from 1% to 5%, the particle size is fixed at dp=33 nm and a range of the temperature from 20 to 70 °C. We used models of thermophysical nanofluids properties based on experimental measurements for studying the effect of adding solid particle into water in natural convection heat transfer and entropy generation of nanofluid. Such as models of thermal conductivity and dynamic viscosity which are dependent on solid volume fraction, particle size and temperature. The average Nusselt number is calculated at the hot wall of the cavity in a different solid volume fraction. The most important results is that at low temperatures (less than 40 °C), the addition of nanosolids Al2O3 into water leads to a decrease in heat transfer and entropy generation instead of the expected increase, whereas at high temperature, heat transfer and entropy generation increase with the addition of nanosolids. This behavior is due to the contradictory effects of viscosity and thermal conductivity of the nanofluid. These effects are discussed in this work.

Keywords: Entropy generation, heat transfer, nanofluid, natural convection.

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164 Effect of High Injection Pressure on Mixture Formation, Burning Process and Combustion Characteristics in Diesel Combustion

Authors: Amir Khalid, B. Manshoor

Abstract:

The mixture formation prior to the ignition process plays as a key element in the diesel combustion. Parametric studies of mixture formation and ignition process in various injection parameter has received considerable attention in potential for reducing emissions. Purpose of this study is to clarify the effects of injection pressure on mixture formation and ignition especially during ignition delay period, which have to be significantly influences throughout the combustion process and exhaust emissions. This study investigated the effects of injection pressure on diesel combustion fundamentally using rapid compression machine. The detail behavior of mixture formation during ignition delay period was investigated using the schlieren photography system with a high speed camera. This method can capture spray evaporation, spray interference, mixture formation and flame development clearly with real images. Ignition process and flame development were investigated by direct photography method using a light sensitive high-speed color digital video camera. The injection pressure and air motion are important variable that strongly affect to the fuel evaporation, endothermic and prolysis process during ignition delay. An increased injection pressure makes spray tip penetration longer and promotes a greater amount of fuel-air mixing occurs during ignition delay. A greater quantity of fuel prepared during ignition delay period thus predominantly promotes more rapid heat release.

Keywords: Mixture Formation, Diesel Combustion, Ignition Process, Spray, Rapid Compression Machine.

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163 Current Drainage Attack Correction via Adjusting the Attacking Saw Function Asymmetry

Authors: Yuri Boiko, Iluju Kiringa, Tet Yeap

Abstract:

Current drainage attack suggested previously is further studied in regular settings of closed-loop controlled Brushless DC (BLDC) motor with Kalman filter in the feedback loop. Modeling and simulation experiments are conducted in a MATLAB environment, implementing the closed-loop control model of BLDC motor operation in position sensorless mode under Kalman filter drive. The current increase in the motor windings is caused by the controller (p-controller in our case) affected by false data injection of substitution of the angular velocity estimates with distorted values. Operation of multiplication to distortion coefficient, values of which are taken from the distortion function synchronized in its periodicity with the rotor’s position change. A saw function with a triangular tooth shape is studied herewith for the purpose of carrying out the bias injection with current drainage consequences. The specific focus here is on how the asymmetry of the tooth in the saw function affects the flow of current drainage. The purpose is two-fold: (i) to produce and collect the signature of an asymmetric saw in the attack for further pattern recognition process, and (ii) to determine conditions of improving stealthiness of such attack via regulating asymmetry in saw function used. It is found that modification of the symmetry in the saw tooth affects the periodicity of current drainage modulation. Specifically, the modulation frequency of the drained current for a fully asymmetric tooth shape coincides with the saw function modulation frequency itself. Increasing the symmetry parameter for the triangle tooth shape leads to an increase in the modulation frequency for the drained current. Moreover, such frequency reaches the switching frequency of the motor windings for fully symmetric triangular shapes, thus becoming undetectable and improving the stealthiness of the attack. Therefore, the collected signatures of the attack can serve for attack parameter identification via the pattern recognition route.

Keywords: Bias injection attack, Kalman filter, BLDC motor, control system, closed loop, P-controller, PID-controller, current drainage, saw-function, asymmetry.

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162 Estimation of Hysteretic Damping in Steel Dual Systems with Buckling Restrained Brace and Moment Resisting Frame

Authors: Seyed Saeid Tabaee, Omid Bahar

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Nowadays, energy dissipation devices are commonly used in structures. High rate of energy absorption during earthquakes is the benefit of using such devices, which results in damage reduction of structural elements, specifically columns. The hysteretic damping capacity of energy dissipation devices is the key point that it may adversely make analysis and design process complicated. This effect may be generally represented by Equivalent Viscous Damping (EVD). The equivalent viscous damping might be obtained from the expected hysteretic behavior regarding to the design or maximum considered displacement of a structure. In this paper, the hysteretic damping coefficient of a steel Moment Resisting Frame (MRF), which its performance is enhanced by a Buckling Restrained Brace (BRB) system has been evaluated. Having foresight of damping fraction between BRB and MRF is inevitable for seismic design procedures like Direct Displacement-Based Design (DDBD) method. This paper presents an approach to calculate the damping fraction for such systems by carrying out the dynamic nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) under harmonic loading, which is tuned to the natural system frequency. Two MRF structures, one equipped with BRB and the other without BRB are simultaneously studied. Extensive analysis shows that proportion of each system damping fraction may be calculated by its shear story portion. In this way, contribution of each BRB in the floors and their general contribution in the structural performance may be clearly recognized, in advance.

Keywords: Buckling restrained brace, Direct displacement based design, Dual systems, Hysteretic damping, Moment resisting frames.

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161 Application of Gamma Frailty Model in Survival of Liver Cirrhosis Patients

Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

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160 A Xenon Mass Gauging through Heat Transfer Modeling for Electric Propulsion Thrusters

Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

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The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO2 in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO2, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: Electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon.

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159 A Content Analysis of Sustainability Reporting to Frame the Heterogeneity in Corporate Environment Sustainability Practices

Authors: Venkataraman Sankaranarayanan, Sougata Ray

Abstract:

While extant research has examined many aspects of differential corporate environmental outcomes and behavior, a holistic and integrated view of heterogeneity in corporate environment sustainability (CES) practices remains a puzzle to be fully unraveled – its extent and nature, its relationship to macro or micro level influences, or strategic orientations. Such a perspective would be meaningful for the field given notable strides in CES practices and the corporate social responsibility agenda over the last two decades, in the backdrop of altered global socio-political sensitivities and technological advances. To partly address this gap, this exploratory research adopted a content analysis approach to code patterns in the sustainability disclosures of the 160 largest global firms spread over 8 years. The sample of firms spanned seven industries, nine countries and three continents thereby presenting data rich and diverse enough in several dimensions to be representative of global heterogeneity in CES practices. Through a factor analysis of the coded data, four strategic CES orientations were extracted through the analysis, that effectively straddles most of the variation observed in current CES practices – one that seeks to reduce environmental damage on account of the firm’s operations, another that prioritizes minimalism, a third that focuses on broader ecological status quo, and a final one that champions the ‘business of green’, extending the CES agenda beyond the firm’s boundaries. These environment sustainability strategy orientations are further examined to elicit prominent patterns and explore plausible antecedents.

Keywords: Corporate sustainability, corporate social responsibility, corporate environmental management, environmental strategy.

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158 Microbubbles Enhanced Synthetic Phorbol Ester Degradation by Ozonolysis

Authors: Kuvshinov, D., Siswanto, A., Zimmerman, W. B.

Abstract:

A phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate (TPA) is a synthetic analogue of phorbol ester (PE), a natural toxic compound of Euphorbiaceae plant. The oil extracted from plants of this family is useful source for primarily biofuel. However this oil might also be used as a foodstuff due to its significant nutrition content. The limitations for utilizing the oil as a foodstuff are mainly due to a toxicity of PE. Currently, a majority of PE detoxification processes are expensive as include multi steps alcohol extraction sequence.

Ozone is considered as a strong oxidative agent. It reacts with PE by attacking the carbon-carbon double bond of PE. This modification of PE molecular structure yields a non toxic ester with high lipid content.

This report presents data on development of simple and cheap PE detoxification process with water application as a buffer and ozone as reactive component. The core of this new technique is an application for a new microscale plasma unit to ozone production and the technology permits ozone injection to the water-TPA mixture in form of microbubbles.

The efficacy of a heterogeneous process depends on the diffusion coefficient which can be controlled by contact time and interfacial area. The low velocity of rising microbubbles and high surface to volume ratio allow efficient mass transfer to be achieved during the process. Direct injection of ozone is the most efficient way to process with such highly reactive and short lived chemical.

Data on the plasma unit behavior are presented and the influence of gas oscillation technology on the microbubble production mechanism has been discussed. Data on overall process efficacy for TPA degradation is shown.

Keywords: Microbubble, ozonolysis, synthetic phorbol ester.

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157 Accurate Calculation of Free Frequencies of Beams and Rectangular Plates

Authors: R .Lassoued, M. Guenfoud

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An accurate procedure to determine free vibrations of beams and plates is presented. The natural frequencies are exact solutions of governing vibration equations witch load to a nonlinear homogeny system. The bilinear and linear structures considered simulate a bridge. The dynamic behavior of this one is analyzed by using the theory of the orthotropic plate simply supported on two sides and free on the two others. The plate can be excited by a convoy of constant or harmonic loads. The determination of the dynamic response of the structures considered requires knowledge of the free frequencies and the shape modes of vibrations. Our work is in this context. Indeed, we are interested to develop a self-consistent calculation of the Eigen frequencies. The formulation is based on the determination of the solution of the differential equations of vibrations. The boundary conditions corresponding to the shape modes permit to lead to a homogeneous system. Determination of the noncommonplace solutions of this system led to a nonlinear problem in Eigen frequencies. We thus, develop a computer code for the determination of the eigenvalues. It is based on a method of bisection with interpolation whose precision reaches 10 -12. Moreover, to determine the corresponding modes, the calculation algorithm that we develop uses the method of Gauss with a partial optimization of the "pivots" combined with an inverse power procedure. The Eigen frequencies of a plate simply supported along two opposite sides while considering the two other free sides are thus analyzed. The results could be generalized with the case of a beam by regarding it as a plate with low width. We give, in this paper, some examples of treated cases. The comparison with results presented in the literature is completely satisfactory.

Keywords: Free frequencies, beams, rectangular plates.

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156 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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155 Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of Optimally Designed Steel Angelina™ Beams

Authors: Ferhat Erdal, Osman Tunca, Serkan Tas, Serdar Carbas

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Web-expanded steel beams provide an easy and economical solution for the systems having longer structural members. The main goal of manufacturing these beams is to increase the moment of inertia and section modulus, which results in greater strength and rigidity. Until recently, there were two common types of open web-expanded beams: with hexagonal openings, also called castellated beams, and beams with circular openings referred to as cellular beams, until the generation of sinusoidal web-expanded beams. In the present research, the optimum design of a new generation beams, namely sinusoidal web-expanded beams, will be carried out and the design results will be compared with castellated and cellular beam solutions. Thanks to a reduced fabrication process and substantial material savings, the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes (Angelina™ Beam) meets the economic requirements of steel design problems while ensuring optimum safety. The objective of this research is to carry out non-linear finite element analysis (FEA) of the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes. The FE method has been used to predict their entire response to increasing values of external loading until they lose their load carrying capacity. FE model of each specimen that is utilized in the experimental studies is carried out. These models are used to simulate the experimental work to verify of test results and to investigate the non-linear behavior of failure modes such as web-post buckling, shear buckling and vierendeel bending of beams.

Keywords: Steel structures, web-expanded beams, Angelina™ beam, optimum design, failure modes, finite element analysis.

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154 Land Suitability Prediction Modelling for Agricultural Crops Using Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study of Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

Abstract:

The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. This necessitates increased resource consumption and underscores the importance of addressing sustainable agriculture development along with other environmental considerations. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for 10 different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: Land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture.

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153 A Quantitative Study on the Effects of School Development on Character Development

Authors: Merve Gücen

Abstract:

One of the aims of education is to educate individuals who have embraced universal moral principles and transform universal moral principles into moral values. Character education aims to educate behaviors of individuals in their mental activities to transform moral principles into moral values in their lives. As the result of this education, individuals are expected to develop positive character traits and become morally indifferent individuals. What are the characteristics of the factors that influence character education at this stage? How should character education help individuals develop positive character traits? Which methods are more effective? These questions come to mind when studying character education. Our research was developed within the framework of these questions. The aim of our study is to provide the most effective use of the education factor that affects character. In this context, we tried to explain character definition, character development, character education and the factors affecting character education using qualitative research methods. At this stage, character education programs applied in various countries were examined and a character education program consisting of Islamic values was prepared and implemented in an International Imam Hatip High School in Istanbul. Our application was carried out with the collaboration of school and families. Various seminars were organized in the school and participation of families was ensured. In the last phase of our study, we worked with the students and their families on the effectiveness of the events held during the program. In this study, it was found that activities such as storytelling and theater in character education programs were effective in recognizing wrong behaviors in individuals. It was determined that our program had a positive effect on the quality of education. It was seen that applications of this educational program affected the behavior of the employees in the educational institution.

Keywords: Character development, values education, family activities, education program.

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152 Simulation and Parameterization by the Finite Element Method of a C Shape Delectromagnet for Application in the Characterization of Magnetic Properties of Materials

Authors: A. A Velásquez, J.Baena

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This article presents the simulation, parameterization and optimization of an electromagnet with the C–shaped configuration, intended for the study of magnetic properties of materials. The electromagnet studied consists of a C-shaped yoke, which provides self–shielding for minimizing losses of magnetic flux density, two poles of high magnetic permeability and power coils wound on the poles. The main physical variable studied was the static magnetic flux density in a column within the gap between the poles, with 4cm2 of square cross section and a length of 5cm, seeking a suitable set of parameters that allow us to achieve a uniform magnetic flux density of 1x104 Gaussor values above this in the column, when the system operates at room temperature and with a current consumption not exceeding 5A. By means of a magnetostatic analysis by the finite element method, the magnetic flux density and the distribution of the magnetic field lines were visualized and quantified. From the results obtained by simulating an initial configuration of electromagnet, a structural optimization of the geometry of the adjustable caps for the ends of the poles was performed. The magnetic permeability effect of the soft magnetic materials used in the poles system, such as low– carbon steel (0.08% C), Permalloy (45% Ni, 54.7% Fe) and Mumetal (21.2% Fe, 78.5% Ni), was also evaluated. The intensity and uniformity of the magnetic field in the gap showed a high dependence with the factors described above. The magnetic field achieved in the column was uniform and its magnitude ranged between 1.5x104 Gauss and 1.9x104 Gauss according to the material of the pole used, with the possibility of increasing the magnetic field by choosing a suitable geometry of the cap, introducing a cooling system for the coils and adjusting the spacing between the poles. This makes the device a versatile and scalable tool to generate the magnetic field necessary to perform magnetic characterization of materials by techniques such as vibrating sample magnetometry (VSM), Hall-effect, Kerr-effect magnetometry, among others. Additionally, a CAD design of the modules of the electromagnet is presented in order to facilitate the construction and scaling of the physical device.

Keywords: Electromagnet, Finite Elements Method, Magnetostatic, Magnetometry, Modeling.

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151 Comparative Analysis of Control Techniques Based Sliding Mode for Transient Stability Assessment for Synchronous Multicellular Converter

Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Fatiha Khelili, Sakina Zerouali, Ouafae Bennis

Abstract:

This paper features a comparative study performance of sliding mode controller (SMC) for closed-loop voltage control of direct current to direct current (DC-DC) three-cells buck converter connected in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), based on pulse-width modulation (PWM) with SMC based on hysteresis modulation (HM) where an adaptive feedforward technique is adopted. On one hand, for the PWM-based SM, the approach is to incorporate a fixed-frequency PWM scheme which is effectively a variant of SM control. On the other hand, for the HM-based SM, oncoming an adaptive feedforward control that makes the hysteresis band variable in the hysteresis modulator of the SM controller in the aim to restrict the switching frequency variation in the case of any change of the line input voltage or output load variation are introduced. The results obtained under load change, input change and reference change clearly demonstrates a similar dynamic response of both proposed techniques, their effectiveness is fast and smooth tracking of the desired output voltage. The PWM-based SM technique has greatly improved the dynamic behavior with a bit advantageous compared to the HM-based SM technique, as well as provide stability in any operating conditions. Simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment have been performed to verify the concept.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, pulse-width modulation, hysteresis modulation, DC-DC converter, parallel multi-cells converter, robustness.

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150 Computational Investigation of Secondary Flow Losses in Linear Turbine Cascade by Modified Leading Edge Fence

Authors: K. N. Kiran, S. Anish

Abstract:

It is well known that secondary flow loses account about one third of the total loss in any axial turbine. Modern gas turbine height is smaller and have longer chord length, which might lead to increase in secondary flow. In order to improve the efficiency of the turbine, it is important to understand the behavior of secondary flow and device mechanisms to curtail these losses. The objective of the present work is to understand the effect of a stream wise end-wall fence on the aerodynamics of a linear turbine cascade. The study is carried out computationally by using commercial software ANSYS CFX. The effect of end-wall on the flow field are calculated based on RANS simulation by using SST transition turbulence model. Durham cascade which is similar to high-pressure axial flow turbine for simulation is used. The aim of fencing in blade passage is to get the maximum benefit from flow deviation and destroying the passage vortex in terms of loss reduction. It is observed that, for the present analysis, fence in the blade passage helps reducing the strength of horseshoe vortex and is capable of restraining the flow along the blade passage. Fence in the blade passage helps in reducing the under turning by 70 in comparison with base case. Fence on end-wall is effective in preventing the movement of pressure side leg of horseshoe vortex and helps in breaking the passage vortex. Computations are carried for different fence height whose curvature is different from the blade camber. The optimum fence geometry and location reduces the loss coefficient by 15.6% in comparison with base case.

Keywords: Boundary layer fence, horseshoe vortex, linear cascade, passage vortex, secondary flow.

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149 A Lactose-Free Yogurt Using Membrane Systems and Modified Milk Protein Concentrate: Production and Characterization

Authors: Shahram Naghizadeh Raeisi, Ali Alghooneh

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Using membrane technology and modification of milk protein structural properties, a lactose free yogurt was developed. The functional, textural and structural properties of the sample were evaluated and compared with the commercial ones. Results showed that the modification of protein in high fat set yogurt resulted in 11.55%, 18%, 20.21% and 7.08% higher hardness, consistency, water holding capacity, and shininess values compared with the control one. Furthermore, these indices of modified low fat set yogurt were 21.40%, 25.41%, 28.15% & 10.58% higher than the control one, which could be related to the gel network microstructural properties in yogurt formulated with modified protein. In this way, in comparison with the control one, the index of linkage strength (A), the number of linkages (z), and time scale of linkages (λrel) of the high fat modified yogurt were 22.10%, 50.68%, 21.82% higher than the control one; whereas, the average linear distance between two adjacent crosslinks (ξ), was 16.77% lower than the control one. For low fat modified yogurt, A, z, λrel, and ξ indices were 34.30%, 61.70% and 42.60% higher and 19.20% lower than the control one, respectively. The shelf life of modified yogurt was extended to 10 weeks in the refrigerator, while, the control set yogurt had a 3 weeks shelf life. The acidity of high fat and low fat modified yogurts increased from 76 to 84 and 72 to 80 Dornic degrees during 10 weeks of storage, respectively, whereas for control high fat and low fat yogurts they increased from 82 to 122 and 77 to 112 Dornic degrees, respectively. This behavior could be due to the elimination of microorganism’s source of energy in modified yogurt. Furthermore, the calories of high fat and low fat lactose free yogurts were 25% and 40% lower than their control samples, respectively. Generally, results showed that the lactose free yogurt with modified protein, despite of 1% lower protein content than the control one, showed better functional properties, nutritional properties, network parameters, and shelf stability, which could be promising in the set yogurt industry.

Keywords: Lactose free, low calorie, network properties, protein modification.

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148 Hallucinatory Activity in Schizophrenia: The Relationship with Childhood Memories, Submissive Behavior, Social Comparison, and Depression

Authors: C. Barreto Carvalho, C. da Motta, J. Pinto-Gouveia, E. B. Peixoto

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Auditory hallucinations among the most invalidating and distressing experiences reported by patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, leading to feelings of powerlessness and helplessness towards their illness. In more severe cases, these auditory hallucinations can take the form of commanding voices, which are often related to high suicidality rates in these patients. Several authors propose that the meanings attributed to the hallucinatory experience, rather than characteristics like form and content, can be determinant in patients’ reactions to hallucinatory activity, particularly in the case of voice-hearing experiences. In this study, 48 patients diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia presenting auditory hallucinations were studied. Multiple regression analyses were computed to study the influence of several developmental aspects, such as family and social dynamics, bullying, depression, and sociocognitive variables on the auditory hallucinations, on patients’ attributions and relationships with their voices, and on the resulting invalidation of hallucinatory experience. Overall, results showed how relationships with voices can mirror several aspects of interpersonal relationship with others, and how self-schemas, depression and actual social relationships help shaping the voice-hearing experience. Early experiences of victimization and submission help predict the attributions of omnipotence of the voices, and increased hostility from parents seems to increase the malevolence of the voices, suggesting that socio-cognitive factors can significantly contribute to the etiology and maintenance of auditory hallucinations. The understanding of the characteristics of auditory hallucinations and the relationships patients established with their voices can allow the development of more promising therapeutic interventions that can be more effective in decreasing invalidation caused by this devastating mental illness.

Keywords: Auditory hallucinations, beliefs, life events, schizophrenia.

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147 CFD Analysis of the Blood Flow in Left Coronary Bifurcation with Variable Angulation

Authors: Midiya Khademi, Ali Nikoo, Shabnam Rahimnezhad Baghche Jooghi

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death globally. Most CVDs can be prevented by avoiding habitual risk factors. Separate from the habitual risk factors, there are some inherent factors in each individual that can increase the risk potential of CVDs. Vessel shapes and geometry are influential factors, having great impact on the blood flow and the hemodynamic behavior of the vessels. In the present study, the influence of bifurcation angle on blood flow characteristics is studied. In order to approach this topic, by simplifying the details of the bifurcation, three models with angles 30°, 45°, and 60° were created, then by using CFD analysis, the response of these models for stable flow and pulsatile flow was studied. In the conducted simulation in order to eliminate the influence of other geometrical factors, only the angle of the bifurcation was changed and other parameters remained constant during the research. Simulations are conducted under dynamic and stable condition. In the stable flow simulation, a steady velocity of 0.17 m/s at the inlet plug was maintained and in dynamic simulations, a typical LAD flow waveform is implemented. The results show that the bifurcation angle has an influence on the maximum speed of the flow. In the stable flow condition, increasing the angle lead to decrease the maximum flow velocity. In the dynamic flow simulations, increasing the bifurcation angle lead to an increase in the maximum velocity. Since blood flow has pulsatile characteristics, using a uniform velocity during the simulations can lead to a discrepancy between the actual results and the calculated results.

Keywords: Coronary artery, cardiovascular disease, bifurcation, atherosclerosis, CFD, artery wall shear stress.

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146 The Risk of In-work Poverty and Family Coping Strategies

Authors: A. Banovcinova, M. Zakova

Abstract:

Labor market activity and paid employment should be a key factor in protecting individuals and families from falling into poverty and providing them with sufficient resources to meet the needs of their members. However, due to various processes in the labor market as well as the influence of individual factors and often insufficient social capital, there is a relatively large group of households that cannot eliminate paid employment and find themselves in a state of so-called working poverty. The aim of the research was to find out what strategies families use in managing poverty and meeting their needs and which of these strategies prevail in the Slovak population. A quantitative research strategy was chosen. The method of data collection was a structured interview focused on finding out the use of individual management strategies and also selected demographic indicators. The research sample consisted of members of families in which at least one member has a paid job. The condition for inclusion in the research was that the family's income did not exceed 60% of the national median equalized disposable income. The analysis of the results showed 5 basic areas to which management strategies are related - work, financial security, needs, social contacts and perception of the current situation. The prevailing strategies were strategies aimed at increasing and streamlining labor market activity and the planned and effective management of the family budget. Strategies that were rejected were mainly related to debt creation. The results make it possible to identify the preferred ways of managing poverty in individual areas of life, as well as the factors that influence this behavior. This information is important for working with families living in a state of working poverty and can help professionals develop positive ways of coping for families.

Keywords: Copying strategies, family, in-work poverty, quantitative research.

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145 Structure-Activity Relationship of Gold Catalysts on Alumina Supported Cu-Ce Oxides for CO and Volatile Organic Compound Oxidation

Authors: Tatyana T. Tabakova, Elitsa N. Kolentsova, Dimitar Y. Dimitrov, Krasimir I. Ivanov, Yordanka G. Karakirova, Petya Cv. Petrova, Georgi V. Avdeev

Abstract:

The catalytic oxidation of CO and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is considered as one of the most efficient ways to reduce harmful emissions from various chemical industries. The effectiveness of gold-based catalysts for many reactions of environmental significance was proven during the past three decades. The aim of this work was to combine the favorable features of Au and Cu-Ce mixed oxides in the design of new catalytic materials of improved efficiency and economic viability for removal of air pollutants in waste gases from formaldehyde production. Supported oxides of copper and cerium with Cu: Ce molar ratio 2:1 and 1:5 were prepared by wet impregnation of g-alumina. Gold (2 wt.%) catalysts were synthesized by a deposition-precipitation method. Catalysts characterization was carried out by texture measurements, powder X-ray diffraction, temperature programmed reduction and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. The catalytic activity in the oxidation of CO, CH3OH and (CH3)2O was measured using continuous flow equipment with fixed bed reactor. Both Cu-Ce/alumina samples demonstrated similar catalytic behavior. The addition of gold caused significant enhancement of CO and methanol oxidation activity (100 % degree of CO and CH3OH conversion at about 60 and 140 oC, respectively). The composition of Cu-Ce mixed oxides affected the performance of gold-based samples considerably. Gold catalyst on Cu-Ce/γ-Al2O3 1:5 exhibited higher activity for CO and CH3OH oxidation in comparison with Au on Cu-Ce/γ-Al2O3 2:1. The better performance of Au/Cu-Ce 1:5 was related to the availability of highly dispersed gold particles and copper oxide clusters in close contact with ceria.

Keywords: CO and VOCs oxidation, copper oxide, ceria, gold catalysts.

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144 Evaluation of the Mechanical Behavior of a Retaining Wall Structure on a Weathered Soil through Probabilistic Methods

Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

Abstract:

Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: Economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis.

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143 Evaluation of Underground Water Flow into Tabriz Metro Tunnel First Line by Hydro-Mechanical Coupling Analysis

Authors: L. Nikakhtar, S. Zare

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One of the main practical difficulties attended with tunnel construction is related to underground water. Uncontrolled water behavior may cause extra loads on the lining, mechanical instability, and unfavorable environmental problems. Estimating underground water inflow rate to the tunnels is a complex skill. The common calculation methods are: empirical methods, analytical solutions, numerical solutions based on the equivalent continuous porous media. In this research the rate of underground water inflow to the Tabriz metro first line tunnel has been investigated by numerical finite difference method using FLAC2D software. Comparing results of Heuer analytical method and numerical simulation showed good agreement with each other. Fully coupled and one-way coupled hydro mechanical states as well as water-free conditions in the soil around the tunnel are used in numerical models and these models have been applied to evaluate the loading value on the tunnel support system. Results showed that the fully coupled hydro mechanical analysis estimated more axial forces, moments and shear forces in linings, so this type of analysis is more conservative and reliable method for design of tunnel lining system. As sensitivity analysis, inflow water rates into the tunnel were evaluated in different soil permeability, underground water levels and depths of the tunnel. Result demonstrated that water level in constant depth of the tunnel is more sensitive factor for water inflow rate to the tunnel in comparison of other parameters investigated in the sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: Coupled hydro mechanical analysis, FLAC2D, Tabriz Metro, inflow rate.

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142 Response Time Behavior Trends of Proptional, Propotional Integral and Proportional Integral Derivative Mode on Lab Scale

Authors: Syed Zohaib Javaid Zaidi, W. Iqbal

Abstract:

The industrial automation is dependent upon pneumatic control systems. The industrial units are now controlled with digital control systems to tackle the process variables like Temperature, Pressure, Flow rates and Composition.

This research work produces an evaluation of the response time fluctuations for proportional mode, proportional integral and proportional integral derivative modes of automated chemical process control. The controller output is measured for different values of gain with respect to time in three modes (P, PI and PID). In case of P-mode for different values of gain the controller output has negligible change. When the controller output of PI-mode is checked for constant gain, it can be seen that by decreasing the integral time the controller output has showed more fluctuations. The PID mode results have found to be more interesting in a way that when rate minute has changed, the controller output has also showed fluctuations with respect to time.  The controller output for integral mode and derivative mode are observed with lesser steady state error, minimum offset and larger response time to control the process variable.   The tuning parameters in case of P-mode are only steady state gain with greater errors with respect to controller output. The integral mode showed controller outputs with intermediate responses during integral gain (ki).  By increasing the rate minute the derivative gain (kd) also increased which showed the controlled oscillations in case of PID mode and lesser overshoot.

Keywords: Controller Output, P, PI &PID modes, Steady state gain.

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