Search results for: risk models

Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

Abstract:

Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: Debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

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Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: Coal mine, risk, soil, trace elements.

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Authors: Boualem El Kechebour, Djilali Benouar

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The objective of this work is to present a expertise on flooding hazard analysis and how to reduce the risk. The analysis concerns the disaster induced by the flood on November 10/11, 2001 in the Bab El Oued district of the city of Algiers.The study begins by an expertise of damages in related with the urban environment and the history of the urban growth of the site. After this phase, the work is focalized on the identification of the existing correlations between the development of the town and its vulnerability. The final step consists to elaborate the interpretations on the interactions between the urban growth, the sewerage network and the vulnerability of the urban system.In conclusion, several recommendations are formulated permitting the mitigation of the risk in the future. The principal recommendations concern the new urban operations and the existing urbanized sites.

Keywords: urban growth, sewerage network, vulnerability of town, flooding risk, mitigation

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Authors: Chanin Park, Sundarapandian Thangapandian, Yuno Lee, Minky Son, Shalini John, Young-sik Sohn, Keun Woo Lee

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Hypertension is characterized with stress on the heart and blood vessels thus increasing the risk of heart attack and renal diseases. The Renin angiotensin system (RAS) plays a major role in blood pressure control. Renin is the enzyme that controls the RAS at the rate-limiting step. Our aim is to develop new drug-like leads which can inhibit renin and thereby emerge as therapeutics for hypertension. To achieve this, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and receptor-based pharmacophore modeling were implemented, and three rennin-inhibitor complex structures were selected based on IC50 value and scaffolds of inhibitors. Three pharmacophore models were generated considering conformations induced by inhibitor. The compounds mapped to these models were selected and subjected to drug-like screening. The identified hits were docked into the active site of renin. Finally, hit1 satisfying the binding mode and interaction energy was selected as possible lead candidate to be used in novel renin inhibitors.

Keywords: Renin inhibitor, Molecular dynamics simulation, Structure-based pharmacophore modeling

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Authors: Asfaw Gezae Daful

Abstract:

In the present study, two distinctly different approaches are followed for modeling of reactive distillation column, the equilibrium stage model and the nonequilibrium stage model. These models are simulated with a computer code developed in the present study using MATLAB programming. In the equilibrium stage models, the vapor and liquid phases are assumed to be in equilibrium and allowance is made for finite reaction rates, where as in the nonequilibrium stage models simultaneous mass transfer and reaction rates are considered. These simulated model results are validated from the experimental data reported in the literature. The simulated results of equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared for concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles in a reactive distillation column for Methyl Tert Butyle Ether (MTBE) production. Both the models show similar trend for the concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles but the nonequilibrium model predictions are higher and closer to the experimental values reported in the literature.

Keywords: Reactive Distillation, Equilibrium model, Nonequilibrium model, Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

Abstract:

The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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Authors: Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park, Dooyong Cho, Jinwoong Choi

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In this paper, a strategy for long-span bridge disaster response was developed, divided into risk analysis, business impact analysis, and emergency response plan. At the risk analysis stage, the critical risk was estimated. The critical risk was “car accident."The critical process by critical-risk classification was assessed at the business impact analysis stage. The critical process was the task related to the road conditions and traffic safety. Based on the results of the precedent analysis, an emergency response plan was established. By making the order of the standard operating procedures clear, an effective plan for dealing with disaster was formulated. Finally, a prototype software was developed based on the research findings. This study laid the foundation of an information-technology-based disaster response guideline and is significant in that it computerized the disaster response plan to improve the plan-s accessibility.

Keywords: Emergency response; Long-span bridge; Disaster management; Standard operating procedure; Ubiquitous.

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: Multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon.

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Authors: Zuraida Alwadood, Adibah Shuib, Norlida Abd Hamid

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This paper presents the review of past studies concerning mathematical models for rescheduling passenger railway services, as part of delay management in the occurrence of railway disruption. Many past mathematical models highlighted were aimed at minimizing the service delays experienced by passengers during service disruptions. Integer programming (IP) and mixed-integer programming (MIP) models are critically discussed, focusing on the model approach, decision variables, sets and parameters. Some of them have been tested on real-life data of railway companies worldwide, while a few have been validated on fictive data. Based on selected literatures on train rescheduling, this paper is able to assist researchers in the model formulation by providing comprehensive analyses towards the model building. These analyses would be able to help in the development of new approaches in rescheduling strategies or perhaps to enhance the existing rescheduling models and make them more powerful or more applicable with shorter computing time.

Keywords: Mathematical modelling, Mixed-integer programming, Railway rescheduling, Service delays.

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Authors: S. Pattanapairoj, D. Chetchotsak

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This paper proposed classification models that would be used as a proxy for hard disk drive (HDD) functional test equitant which required approximately more than two weeks to perform the HDD status classification in either “Pass" or “Fail". These models were constructed by using committee network which consisted of a number of single neural networks. This paper also included the method to solve the problem of sparseness data in failed part, which was called “enforce learning method". Our results reveal that the constructed classification models with the proposed method could perform well in the sparse data conditions and thus the models, which used a few seconds for HDD classification, could be used to substitute the HDD functional tests.

Keywords: Sparse data, Classifications, Committee network

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.

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Authors: Melek Kalkan, Hatice Odacı, Hatice Epli Koç

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The aim of this study is to compare the innovativeness, risk taking, and focusing on opportunity of the nurse managers and nurses. The data are collected from nurse managers and nurses in Ondokuz Mayıs University, Faculty of Medicine Hospital and Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Medicine Hospital. The study sample consisted of 151 participants, 76 nurse managers (50.3%) and 75 nurses (49.7%). All participants have been assessed by Participant Information Form and Corporate Entrepreneurship Scale. In data analysis, independent t-test has applied. The results show that there are significant differences between nurse managers and nurses on innovativeness (t = 2.42, p < 0.05), risk taking (t = 3.62, p < 0.01), and focusing on opportunity (t = 2.16, p < 0.05). Consequently, it can be said that nurse managers have more innovativeness than nurses and tend to take more risks and focus more on opportunities. 

Keywords: Focusing on opportunity attitudes, innovativeness, risk taking, nurse.

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Authors: Bello Nurudeen Akinsola

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The study analyzed the risk and returns of commercial-property in Southwestern Nigeria and selected stocksmarket investment between 2000 and 2009; compared the inflation hedging characteristics and diversification potentials of investing in commercial-property and selected stock- market investment. Primary data were collected on characteristics, rental and capital values of commercial- properties from their property managers through the use of questionnaire. Secondary data on stock prices and dividends on banking, insurance and conglomerates sectors were sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (2000-2009). The result showed that average return on all the selected stock- investments was higher than that of commercial-property. As regards risk, commercial-property indicated lower risk, compared to stocks. Also the stock-investment had better inflation hedging capacity than commercial-properties; combination of both had diversification potentials. The study concluded that stock-market investment offered attractive higher return than commercial-property although with higher risk and there could be diversification benefits in combining commercial-property with stock- investment.

Keywords: Commercial-Property, Return, Risk, Stock Market

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Authors: Todor Bačkalić, Marinko Maslarić, Milosav Georgijević, Sanja Bojić

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Presented article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about infrastructure risk in water transport. Climate changes are evident and require special attention and global monitoring. Current risk assessment methods for Inland waterway transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of inland waterway transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes in the lower Danube was done for two significant periods (1965-1979 and 1998-2012).

Keywords: Container ship, draught, probability, the Danube.

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors.

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

Abstract:

FMEA has been used for several years and proved its efficiency for system’s risk analysis due to failures. Risk priority number found in FMEA is used to rank failure modes that may occur in a system. There are some guidelines in the literature to assign the values of FMEA components known as Severity, Occurrence and Detection. This paper propose a method to assign the value for occurrence in more realistic manner representing the state of the system under study rather than depending totally on the experience of the analyst. This method uses the hazard function of a system to determine the value of occurrence depending on the behavior of the hazard being constant, increasing or decreasing.

Keywords: FMEA, Hazard Function, Risk Priority Number.

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Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

Abstract:

The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

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In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence/pattern recognition/classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, Hidden Markov Models, Recurrent neural networks, Deterministic finite state automata.

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: Decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle.

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Authors: Y. Rhazali, Y. Hadi, A. Mouloudi

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This paper proposes a method to automatic transformation of CIM level to PIM level respecting the MDA approach. Our proposal is based on creating a good CIM level through well-defined rules allowing as achieving rich models that contain relevant information to facilitate the task of the transformation to the PIM level. We define, thereafter, an appropriate PIM level through various UML diagram. Next, we propose set rules to move from CIM to PIM. Our method follows the MDA approach by considering the business dimension in the CIM level through the use BPMN, standard modeling business of OMG, and the use of UML in PIM advocated by MDA in this level.

Keywords: Model transformation, MDA, CIM, PIM.

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: Multiple Regression Analysis, Supply Chain Management, Risk Assessment, Vendor Selection.

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Authors: Ruxandra Barbulescu, Daniel Ioan, Gabriela Ciuprina

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The saltatory conduction is the way the action potential is transmitted along a myelinated axon. The potential diffuses along the myelinated compartments and it is regenerated in the Ranvier nodes due to the ion channels allowing the flow across the membrane. For an efficient simulation of populations of neurons, it is important to use reduced order models both for myelinated compartments and for Ranvier nodes and to have control over their accuracy and inner parameters. The paper presents a reduced order model of this neural system which allows an efficient simulation method for the saltatory conduction in myelinated axons. This model is obtained by concatenating reduced order linear models of 1D myelinated compartments and nonlinear 0D models of Ranvier nodes. The models for the myelinated compartments are selected from a series of spatially distributed models developed and hierarchized according to their modeling errors. The extracted model described by a nonlinear PDE of hyperbolic type is able to reproduce the saltatory conduction with acceptable accuracy and takes into account the finite propagation speed of potential. Finally, this model is again reduced in order to make it suitable for the inclusion in large-scale neural circuits.

Keywords: Saltatory conduction, action potential, myelinated compartments, nonlinear, Ranvier nodes, reduced order models, POD.

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Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

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This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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Authors: Fenglong Guo, Dingcheng Wang

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This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications of these probability inequalities.

Keywords: Lundberg inequality, NWUC, Renewal recursive technique, Ruin probability

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Authors: Jürgen Geiser, Robert Röhle

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In this paper we present modeling and simulation for physical vapor deposition for metallic bipolar plates. In the models we discuss the application of different models to simulate the transport of chemical reactions of the gas species in the gas chamber. The so called sputter process is an extremely sensitive process to deposit thin layers to metallic plates. We have taken into account lower order models to obtain first results with respect to the gas fluxes and the kinetics in the chamber. The model equations can be treated analytically in some circumstances and complicated multi-dimensional models are solved numerically with a software-package (UG unstructed grids, see [1]). Because of multi-scaling and multi-physical behavior of the models, we discuss adapted schemes to solve more accurate in the different domains and scales. The results are discussed with physical experiments to give a valid model for the assumed growth of thin layers.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion equations, multi-scale problem, physical vapor deposition, reaction equations, splitting methods.

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Authors: Chan-Sik Kim, Jong-Seong Kim, Se Won Lee, Hoo-Gon Choi

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In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.

Keywords: NPD projects, risk cost, strategy, optimal responses, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: N. Alharbi

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E-government is becoming more important these days. However, the adoption of e-government is often slowed down by technical and non-technical security factors. Nowadays, there many security models that can make the e-government services more secure. This paper will explain the main security factors that affected the level of e-government security. Moreover, it will also analyse current existing models. Finally, the paper will suggest a comprehensive security model that will contain most of technical and non-technical factors.

Keywords: E-government, technical, non-technical, security model.

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