Search results for: winters model.

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

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The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: Bin Su

Abstract:

Auckland has a temperate climate with comfortable warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters. An Auckland school normally does not need air conditioning for cooling during the summer and only needs heating during the winter. The Auckland school building thermal design should more focus on winter thermal performance and indoor thermal comfort for energy efficiency. This field study of testing indoor and outdoor air temperatures, relative humidity and indoor surface temperatures of three classrooms with different envelopes were carried out in the Avondale College during the winter months in 2013. According to the field study data, this study is to compare and evaluate winter thermal performance and indoor thermal conditions of school buildings with different envelopes.

Keywords: Building envelope, Building mass effect, Building thermal comfort, Building thermal performance, School building.

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.

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Authors: Bin Su

Abstract:

Auckland has a temperate climate with comfortable warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters. Auckland house design not only focus on winter thermal performance and indoor thermal condition, but also indoor moisture control, which is closely related to indirect health effects such as dust mites, fungi, etc. Most Auckland houses are designed to use temporary heating for winter indoor thermal comfort. Based on field study data of indoor microclimate conditions of two Auckland townhouses with a whole home mechanical ventilation system or a passive wind directional skylight vent, this study is to evaluate and compare indoor moisture conditions of two insulated townhouses only using temporary heating with different ventilation systems.

Keywords: House ventilation, house thermal design, indoor health condition, indoor moisture control.

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Authors: B. Su

Abstract:

Auckland has a temperate climate with comfortable warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters. An Auckland school normally does not need air conditioning for cooling during the summer and only need heating during the winter. The space hating energy is the major portion of winter school energy consumption and the winter energy consumption is major portion of annual school energy consumption. School building thermal design should focus on the winter thermal performance for reducing the space heating energy. A number of Auckland schools- design data and energy consumption data are used for this study. This pilot study investigates the relationships between their energy consumption data and school building design data to improve future school design for energy efficiency.

Keywords: Building energy efficiency, building thermal performance, school building design, school energy consumption

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Authors: Junaid Rashid, Waqar Mehmood, Muhammad Wasif Nisar

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This survey paper shows the recent state of model comparison as it’s applies to Model Driven engineering. In Model Driven Engineering to calculate the difference between the models is a very important and challenging task. There are number of tasks involved in model differencing that firstly starts with identifying and matching the elements of the model. In this paper, we discuss how model matching is accomplished, the strategies, techniques and the types of the model. We also discuss the future direction. We found out that many of the latest model comparison strategies are geared near enabling Meta model and similarity based matching. Therefore model versioning is the most dominant application of the model comparison. Recently to work on comparison for versioning has begun to deteriorate, giving way to different applications. Ultimately there is wide change among the tools in the measure of client exertion needed to perform model comparisons, as some require more push to encourage more sweeping statement and expressive force.

Keywords: Model comparison, model clone detection, model versioning, EMF Model, model diff.

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Authors: Bala Dhandayuthapani Veerasamy

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Parallel programming models exist as an abstraction of hardware and memory architectures. There are several parallel programming models in commonly use; they are shared memory model, thread model, message passing model, data parallel model, hybrid model, Flynn-s models, embarrassingly parallel computations model, pipelined computations model. These models are not specific to a particular type of machine or memory architecture. This paper expresses the model program for concurrent approach to data parallel model through java programming.

Keywords: Concurrent, Data Parallel, JDK, Parallel, Thread

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Authors: Georgia Garani

Abstract:

A generalised relational data model is formalised for the representation of data with nested structure of arbitrary depth. A recursive algebra for the proposed model is presented. All the operations are formally defined. The proposed model is proved to be a superset of the conventional relational model (CRM). The functionality and validity of the model is shown by a prototype implementation that has been undertaken in the functional programming language Miranda.

Keywords: nested relations, recursive algebra, recursive nested operations, relational data model.

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Authors: Mohammed Abdalla Osman Mukhtar, Azween Abdullah, Alan Giffin Downe

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Model mapping and transformation are important processes in high level system abstractions, and form the cornerstone of model-driven architecture (MDA) techniques. Considerable research in this field has devoted attention to static system abstraction, despite the fact that most systems are dynamic with high frequency changes in behavior. In this paper we provide an overview of work that has been done with regard to behavior model mapping and transformation, based on: (1) the completeness of the platform independent model (PIM); (2) semantics of behavioral models; (3) languages supporting behavior model transformation processes; and (4) an evaluation of model composition to effect the best approach to describing large systems with high complexity.

Keywords: MDA; PIM, PSM, QVT, Model Transformation

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Authors: Mohammad Adnan Rajib, Md.Rubayet Mortuza, Saranah Selmi, Asif Khan Ankur, Md. Mujibur Rahman

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Heat Index describes the combined effect of temperature and humidity on human body. This combined effect is causing a serious threat to the health of people because of the changing climate. With climate change, climate variability and thus the occurrence of heat waves is likely to increase. Evidence is emerging from the analysis of long-term climate records of an increase in the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events in all over Bangladesh particularly during summer. Summer season has prolonged while winters have become short in Bangladesh. Summers have become hotter and thus affecting the lives of the people engaged in outdoor activities during scorching sun hours. In 2003 around 62 people died due to heat wave across the country. In this paper Bangladesh is divided in four regions and heat index has been calculated from 1960 to 2010 in these regions of the country. The aim of this paper is to identify the spots most vulnerable to heat strokes and heat waves due to high heat index. The results show upward trend of heat index in almost all the regions of Bangladesh. The highest increase in heat index value has been observed in areas of South-west region and North-west Region. The highest change in average heat index has been found in Jessore by almost 5.50C.

Keywords: Anomaly, Heat index, Relative humidity, Temperature

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Authors: Nhu Van NGUYEN, Jean-Marc OGIER, Salvatore TABBONE, Alain BOUCHER

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The state-of-the-art Bag of Words model in Content- Based Image Retrieval has been used for years but the relevance feedback strategies for this model are not fully investigated. Inspired from text retrieval, the Bag of Words model has the ability to use the wealth of knowledge and practices available in text retrieval. We study and experiment the relevance feedback model in text retrieval for adapting it to image retrieval. The experiments show that the techniques from text retrieval give good results for image retrieval and that further improvements is possible.

Keywords: Relevance feedback, bag of words model, probabilistic model, vector space model, image retrieval

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Authors: W. Triampo, D. Baowan, I.M. Tang, N. Nuttavut, J. Wong-Ekkabut, G. Doungchawee

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In this work, we consider a deterministic model for the transmission of leptospirosis which is currently spreading in the Thai population. The SIR model which incorporates the features of this disease is applied to the epidemiological data in Thailand. It is seen that the numerical solutions of the SIR equations are in good agreement with real empirical data. Further improvements are discussed.

Keywords: Leptospirosis, SIR Model, Deterministic model, Thailand.

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Authors: S. Chonsatidjamroen , K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak

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This paper presents the averaging model of a buck converter derived from the generalized state-space averaging method. The sliding mode control is used to regulate the output voltage of the converter and taken into account in the model. The proposed model requires the fast computational time compared with those of the full topology model. The intensive time-domain simulations via the exact topology model are used as the comparable model. The results show that a good agreement between the proposed model and the switching model is achieved in both transient and steady-state responses. The reported model is suitable for the optimal controller design by using the artificial intelligence techniques.

Keywords: Generalized state-space averaging method, buck converter, sliding mode control, modeling, simulation.

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Authors: Yi-Chang Chen, Shan-Lin Chang, Chia-Chun Wu

Abstract:

Unlike this study focused extensively on trading behavior of option market, those researches were just taken their attention to model-driven option pricing. For example, Black-Scholes (B-S) model is one of the most famous option pricing models. However, the arguments of B-S model are previously mentioned by some pricing models reviewing. This paper following suggests the importance of the dynamic character for option pricing, which is also the reason why using the genetic algorithm (GA). Because of its natural selection and species evolution, this study proposed a hybrid model, the Genetic-BS model which combining GA and B-S to estimate the price more accurate. As for the final experiments, the result shows that the output estimated price with lower MAE value than the calculated price by either B-S model or its enhanced one, Gram-Charlier garch (G-C garch) model. Finally, this work would conclude that the Genetic-BS pricing model is exactly practical.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, Genetic-BS, option pricing model.

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Authors: L. Dzierzbicka-Głowacka, M. Janecki

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Dynamic of phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic Sea has been analyzed applying the numerical ecosystem model 3D CEMBS. The model consists of the hydrodynamic model (POP, version 2.1) and the ice model (CICE, version 4.0), which are imposed by the atmospheric data model (DATM7). The 3D model has an ecosystem module, activated in 2012 in the operational mode. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main variables: biomass of small-size phytoplankton and large-size phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, zooplankton biomass, dissolved and molecular detritus, dissolved oxygen concentration, as well as concentrations of nutrients, including: nitrates, ammonia, phosphates and silicates. The 3D-CEMBS model is an effective tool for solving problems related to phytoplankton blooms dynamic in the Baltic Sea

Keywords: Ecosystem model, phytoplankton, Baltic Sea

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Authors: Jianqiao. Yu, Jianbo. Wang, Xinzhen. He

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This paper presents a longitudinal quasi-linear model for the ADMIRE model. The ADMIRE model is a nonlinear model of aircraft flying in the condition of high angle of attack. So it can-t be considered to be a linear system approximately. In this paper, for getting the longitudinal quasi-linear model of the ADMIRE, a state transformation based on differentiable functions of the nonscheduling states and control inputs is performed, with the goal of removing any nonlinear terms not dependent on the scheduling parameter. Since it needn-t linear approximation and can obtain the exact transformations of the nonlinear states, the above-mentioned approach is thought to be appropriate to establish the mathematical model of ADMIRE. To verify this conclusion, simulation experiments are done. And the result shows that this quasi-linear model is accurate enough.

Keywords: quasi-linear model, simulation, state transformation approach, the ADMIRE model.

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Authors: Lenka Ševelová, Aleš Florian

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Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, material constitutive models, pavement.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Iqbaldeep Kaur, Amit Verma, Inderpreet Kaur, Birinderjit S. Kalyan

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This work is a proposed model of CMOS for which the algorithm has been created and then the performance evaluation of this proposition has been done. In this context, another commonly used model called ZSTT (Zero Switching Time Transient) model is chosen to compare all the vital features and the results for the Proposed Equivalent CMOS are promising. In the end, the excerpts of the created algorithm are also included

Keywords: Dual Capacitor Model, ZSTT, CMOS, SPICEMacro-Model.

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Authors: Mohammad Fuad Mohammad Naser, Faycal Ikhouane

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LuGre friction model is an ordinary differential equation that is widely used in describing the friction phenomenon for mechanical systems. The importance of this model comes from the fact that it captures most of the friction behavior that has been observed including hysteresis. In this paper, we study some aspects related to the hysteresis behavior induced by the LuGre friction model.

Keywords: Hysteresis, LuGre model, operator, (strong) consistency.

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes

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This article deals with the conceptual modeling under uncertainty. First, the division of information systems with their definition will be described, focusing on those where the construction of a conceptual model is suitable for the design of future information system database. Furthermore, the disadvantages of the traditional approach in creating a conceptual model and database design will be analyzed. A comprehensive methodology for the creation of a conceptual model based on analysis of client requirements and the selection of a suitable domain model is proposed here. This article presents the expert system used for the construction of a conceptual model and is a suitable tool for database designers to create a conceptual model.

Keywords: Conceptual model, conceptual modeling, database, methodology, uncertainty, information system, entity, attribute, relationship, conceptual domain model, fuzzy.

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Authors: Eman Mayah, Raid Hanna

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This study presents the use of daylight in the case study of the Reid building at the Glasgow School of Art in the city of Glasgow, UK. In Nordic countries, daylight is one of the main considerations within building design, especially in the face of long, lightless winters. A shortage of daylight, contributing to dark and gloomy conditions, necessitates that designs incorporate strong daylight performance. As such, the building in question is designed to capture natural light for varying needs, where studios are located on the North and South façades. The study’s approach presents an analysis of different façade scenarios, where daylight from the North is observed, analyzed and compared with the daylight from the South façade for various design studios in the building. The findings then are correlated with the results of daylight levels from the daylight simulation program (Autodesk Ecotect Analysis) for the investigated studios. The study finds there to be a dramatic difference in daylight nature and levels between the North and South façades, where orientation, obstructions and designed façade fenestrations have major effects on the findings. The study concludes that some of the studios positioned on the North façade do not have a desirable quality of diffused northern light, due to the outside building’s obstructions, area and volume of the studio and the shadow effect of the designed mezzanine floor in the studios.

Keywords: Daylight levels, educational building, façade fenestration, overcast weather.

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Authors: Muhammad Marsudi, Dzuraidah Abdul Wahab, Che Hassan Che Haron

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Modeling of a manufacturing system enables one to identify the effects of key design parameters on the system performance and as a result to make correct decision. This paper proposes a manufacturing system modeling approach using a spreadsheet model based on queuing network theory, in which a static capacity planning model and stochastic queuing model are integrated. The model was used to improve the existing system utilization in relation to product design. The model incorporates few parameters such as utilization, cycle time, throughput, and batch size. The study also showed that the validity of developed model is good enough to apply and the maximum value of relative error is 10%, far below the limit value 32%. Therefore, the model developed in this study is a valuable alternative model in evaluating a manufacturing system

Keywords: Manufacturing system, product design, spreadsheet model, utilization.

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Authors: Jaswinder Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Karanjeet Singh Kahlon

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Accurate software cost estimates are critical to both developers and customers. They can be used for generating request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring and control. The exact relationship between the attributes of the effort estimation is difficult to establish. A neural network is good at discovering relationships and pattern in the data. So, in this paper a comparative analysis among existing Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model and Neural Network Based Model is performed. Neural Network has outperformed the other considered models. Hence, we proposed Neural Network system as a soft computing approach to model the effort estimation of the software systems.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural Network, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive three phase inverter (TPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at commercial level. The proposed model uses phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize the TPI with the power electric grid (PEG) and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. TPI model consists of a boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a three-leg voltage source inverter (VSI). The operational model of VSI is used to synthesize the sinusoidal current and track the reference. The model is validated using a 35.7 kW PV system in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation results show simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: Model predictive control, three phase voltage source inverter, PV system, Matlab/Simulink.

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Authors: Ondruska Marek, Matustik Ondrej

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The main goal of the article is to present new model of application architecture of banking IT solution providing the Internet Banking services that is particularly outsourced. At first, we propose business rationale and a SWOT analysis to explain the reasons for the model in the article. The most important factor for our model is nowadays- big boom around smart phones and tablet devices. As next, we focus on IT architecture viewpoint where we design application, integration and security model. Finally, we propose a generic governance model that serves as a basis for the specialized governance model. The specialized instance of governance model is designed to ensure that the development and the maintenance of different parts of the IT solution are well governed in time.

Keywords: governance model, front-end application, Internet Banking, smart phones

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Authors: Le Kang

Abstract:

According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structure to afford social responsibilities; that makes the organization could obtain a synergistic effect to achieve more extensive interests of stakeholders and wider social responsibilities.

Keywords: USR, Achievement model, Ferris wheel model.

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Authors: S. A. Sadegh Zadeh, C. Kambhampati

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Mathematical and computational modellings are the necessary tools for reviewing, analysing, and predicting processes and events in the wide spectrum range of scientific fields. Therefore, in a field as rapidly developing as neuroscience, the combination of these two modellings can have a significant role in helping to guide the direction the field takes. The paper combined mathematical and computational modelling to prove a weakness in a very precious model in neuroscience. This paper is intended to analyse all-or-none principle in Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical model. By implementation the computational model of Hodgkin-Huxley model and applying the concept of all-or-none principle, an investigation on this mathematical model has been performed. The results clearly showed that the mathematical model of Hodgkin-Huxley does not observe this fundamental law in neurophysiology to generating action potentials. This study shows that further mathematical studies on the Hodgkin-Huxley model are needed in order to create a model without this weakness.

Keywords: All-or-none, computational modelling, mathematical model, transmembrane voltage, action potential.

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