World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology

Authors: Nguyen Q. M. P., Chen X., Lam Y. C., Yue C. Y.

Abstract:

Polymer melt compressibility and mold surface roughness, which are generally ignored during the filling stage of the conventional injection molding, may become increasingly significant in micro injection molding where the parts become smaller. By employing the 2.5D generalized Hele-Shaw model, we presented here the effects of polymer compressibility and mold surface roughness on mold-filling in a micro-thickness cavity. To elucidate the effects of surface roughness, numerical investigations were conducted using a cavity flat plate which has two halves with different surface roughness. This allows the comparison of flow field on two different halves under identical processing conditions but with different roughness. Results show that polymer compressibility and mold surface roughness have effects on mold filling in micro injection molding. There is in shrinkage reduction as the density is increased due to polymer melt compressibility during the filling stage.

Keywords: Compressible flow, Micro-injection molding, Polymer, Surface roughness

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Authors: Aussadavut Dumrongsiri

Abstract:

Westudy a dual-channel supply chain under decentralized setting in which manufacturer sells to retailer and to customers directly usingan online channel. A customer chooses the purchase-channel based on price and service quality. Also, to buy product from the retail store, the customer incurs a transportation cost influenced by the fluctuating gasoline cost. Both companies are under the revenue sharing contract. In this contract the retailer share a portion of the revenue to the manufacturer while the manufacturer will charge the lower wholesales price. The numerical result shows that the effects of gasoline costs, the revenue sharing ratio and the wholesale price play an important role in determining optimal prices. The result shows that when the gasoline price fluctuatesthe optimal on-line priceis relatively stable while the optimal retail price moves in the opposite direction of the gasoline prices.

Keywords: direct-channel, e-business, pricing model, dualchannel supply chain, gasoline cost, revenue sharing

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Authors: Nhat Khoa Tran, Yee Cheong Lam, Chee Yoon Yue, Ming Jen Tan

Abstract:

Metallic micro parts are playing an important role in micro-fabrication industry. Recently, we have demonstrated a new deformation mechanism for micro-formability of polycrystalline materials. Different depressed micro-features smaller than the grain size have been successfully fabricated on 6061 aluminum alloy (AA6061) substrates with good fidelity. To further verify this proposed deformation mechanism that grain size is not a limiting factor, we demonstrate here that in addition of depressed features, protruded micro-features on a polycrystalline substrate can similarly be fabricated.

Keywords: Deformation mechanism, grain size, microfabrication, polycrystalline materials.

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Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi

Abstract:

In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.

Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation

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Authors: B. Jabbari, N. Tahouni, M. H. Panjeshahi

Abstract:

In this study the integration of an absorption heat pump (AHP) with the concentration section of an industrial pulp and paper process is investigated using pinch technology. The optimum design of the proposed water-lithium bromide AHP is then achieved by minimizing the total annual cost. A comprehensive optimization is carried out by relaxation of all stream pressure drops as well as heat exchanger areas involving in AHP structure. It is shown that by applying genetic algorithm optimizer, the total annual cost of the proposed AHP is decreased by 18% compared to one resulted from simulation.

Keywords: Absorption Heat Pump, Genetic Algorithm, Kraft Industry, Pinch Technology

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Authors: Hiroki Satou, Kayoko Yamamoto

Abstract:

This study aims to propose three evaluation methods to evaluate the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program when emissions trading is performed virtually among enterprises, focusing on carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the only emitted greenhouse gas that tends to increase. The first method clarifies the optimum reduction rate for the highest cost benefit, the second discusses emissions trading among enterprises through market trading, and the third verifies long-term emissions trading during the term of the plan (2010-2019), checking the validity of emissions trading partly using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The findings of this study can be summarized in the following three points. 1. Since the total cost benefit is the greatest at a 44% reduction rate, it is possible to set it more highly than that of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program to get more total cost benefit. 2. At a 44% reduction rate, among 320 enterprises, 8 purchasing enterprises and 245 sales enterprises gain profits from emissions trading, and 67 enterprises perform voluntary reduction without conducting emissions trading. Therefore, to further promote emissions trading, it is necessary to increase the sales volumes of emissions trading in addition to sales enterprises by increasing the number of purchasing enterprises. 3. Compared to short-term emissions trading, there are few enterprises which benefit in each year through the long-term emissions trading of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program. Only 81 enterprises at the most can gain profits from emissions trading in FY 2019. Therefore, by setting the reduction rate more highly, it is necessary to increase the number of enterprises that participate in emissions trading and benefit from the restraint of CO2 emissions.

Keywords: Emissions Trading, Tokyo Cap and Trade Program, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Global Warming, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

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Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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Authors: Danping Lin, C.K.M. Lee

Abstract:

Re-entrant scheduling is an important search problem with many constraints in the flow shop. In the literature, a number of approaches have been investigated from exact methods to meta-heuristics. This paper presents a genetic algorithm that encodes the problem as multi-level chromosomes to reflect the dependent relationship of the re-entrant possibility and resource consumption. The novel encoding way conserves the intact information of the data and fastens the convergence to the near optimal solutions. To test the effectiveness of the method, it has been applied to the resource-constrained re-entrant flow shop scheduling problem. Computational results show that the proposed GA performs better than the simulated annealing algorithm in the measure of the makespan

Keywords: Resource-constrained, re-entrant, genetic algorithm (GA), multi-level encoding

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Authors: W. K. Wong, Z. X. Guo, P.Y. Mok

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective order allocation planning problem with the consideration of various real-world production features. A novel hybrid intelligent optimization model, integrating a multi-objective memetic optimization process, a Monte Carlo simulation technique and a heuristic pruning technique, is proposed to handle this problem. Experiments based on industrial data are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results show that (1) the proposed model can effectively solve the investigated problem by providing effective production decision-making solutions, which outperformsan NSGA-II-based optimization process and an industrial method.

Keywords: Multi-objective order allocation planning, Pareto optimization, Memetic algorithm, Mento Carlo simulation

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Authors: V. Phupha, T. Lantharthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

Abstract:

The problem of generation expansion planning (GEP) has been extensively studied for many years. This paper presents three topics in GEP as follow: statistical model, models for generation expansion, and expansion problem. In the topic of statistical model, the main stages of the statistical modeling are briefly explained. Some works on models for GEP are reviewed in the topic of models for generation expansion. Finally for the topic of expansion problem, the major issues in the development of a longterm expansion plan are summarized.

Keywords: Generation expansion planning, strategies, power system

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Authors: Debabrata Das, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Fuzzy Possibility Measures, Reverse Supply Chain, System Dynamics.

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Authors: Nasr Al-Hinai, Tarek Y. ElMekkawy

Abstract:

The performance of schedules released to a shop floor may greatly be affected by unexpected disruptions. Thus, this paper considers the flexible job shop scheduling problem when processing times of some operations are represented by a uniform distribution with given lower and upper bounds. The objective is to find a predictive schedule that can deal with this uncertainty. The paper compares two genetic approaches to obtain predictive schedule. To determine the performance of the predictive schedules obtained by both approaches, an experimental study is conducted on a number of benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, met-heuristic, robust scheduling, uncertainty of processing times

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Authors: Y. Q. Lv, C.K.M. Lee

Abstract:

This paper develops a quality estimation method with the application of fuzzy hierarchical clustering. Quality estimation is essential to quality control and quality improvement as a precise estimation can promote a right decision-making in order to help better quality control. Normally the quality of finished products in manufacturing system can be differentiated by quality standards. In the real life situation, the collected data may be vague which is not easy to be classified and they are usually represented in term of fuzzy number. To estimate the quality of product presented by fuzzy number is not easy. In this research, the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are collected in manufacturing process and classify the collected data into different clusters so as to get the estimation. Since normal hierarchical clustering methods can only be applied for real numbers, fuzzy hierarchical clustering is selected to handle this problem based on quality standards.

Keywords: Quality Estimation, Fuzzy Quality Mean, Fuzzy Hierarchical Clustering, Fuzzy Number, Manufacturing system

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Authors: Mohammad D. AL-Tahat, Shahnaz M. Alkhalil

Abstract:

International markets driven forces are changing continuously, therefore companies need to gain a competitive edge in such markets. Improving the company's products, processes and practices is no longer auxiliary. Lean production is a production management philosophy that consolidates work tasks with minimum waste resulting in improved productivity. Lean production practices can be mapped into many production areas. One of these is Manufacturing Equipment and Technology (MET). Many lean production practices can be implemented in MET, namely, specific equipment configurations, total preventive maintenance, visual control, new equipment/ technologies, production process reengineering and shared vision of perfection.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implementation level of these six practices in Jordanian industries. To achieve that a questionnaire survey has been designed according to five-point Likert scale. The questionnaire is validated through pilot study and through experts review. A sample of 350 Jordanian companies were surveyed, the response rate was 83%. The respondents were asked to rate the extent of implementation for each of practices. A relationship conceptual model is developed, hypotheses are proposed, and consequently the essential statistical analyses are then performed. An assessment tool that enables management to monitor the progress and the effectiveness of lean practices implementation is designed and presented. Consequently, the results show that the average implementation level of lean practices in MET is 77%, Jordanian companies are implementing successfully the considered lean production practices, and the presented model has Cronbach-s alpha value of 0.87 which is good evidence on model consistency and results validation.

Keywords: Lean Production, SME applications, Visual Control, New equipment/technologies, Specific equipment configurations, Jordan

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Authors: Ion-Cosmin Dita, Vasile Gui, Franz Quint, Marius Otesteanu

Abstract:

In automatic manufacturing and assembling of mechanical, electrical and electronic parts one needs to reliably identify the position of components and to extract the information of these components. Data Matrix Codes (DMC) are established by these days in many areas of industrial manufacturing thanks to their concentration of information on small spaces. In today’s usually order-related industry, where increased tracing requirements prevail, they offer further advantages over other identification systems. This underlines in an impressive way the necessity of a robust code reading system for detecting DMC on the components in factories. This paper compares two methods for estimating the angle of orientation of Data Matrix Codes: one method based on the Hough Transform and the other based on the Mean Shift Algorithm. We concentrate on Data Matrix Codes in industrial environment, punched, milled, lasered or etched on different materials in arbitrary orientation.

Keywords: Industrial data matrix code, Hough transform, mean shift.

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Authors: So Jeong Nam, Seung Woo Lee, Jai-Kyung Lee

Abstract:

With the globalized production and logistics environment, the need for reducing the product development interval and lead time, having a faster response to orders, conforming to quality standards, fair tracking, and boosting information exchanging activities with customers and partners, and coping with changes in the management environment, manufacturers are in dire need of an information management system in their manufacturing environments. There are lots of information systems that have been designed to manage the condition or operation of equipment in the field but existing systems have a decentralized architecture, which is not unified. Also, these systems cannot effectively handle the status data extraction process upon encountering a problem related to protocols or changes in the equipment or the setting. In this regard, this paper will introduce a system for processing and saving the status info of production equipment, which uses standard representation formats, to enable flexible responses to and support for variables in the field equipment. This system can be used for a variety of manufacturing and equipment settings and is capable of interacting with higher-tier systems such as MES.

Keywords: DAS, Equipment Status, Regular Expression

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Authors: Abdulsalam A. Al-Sudairi

Abstract:

Object-oriented simulation is considered one of the most sophisticated techniques that has been widely used in planning, designing, executing and maintaining construction projects. This technique enables the modeler to focus on objects which is extremely important for thorough understanding of a system. Thus, identifying an object is an essential point of building a successful simulation model. In a maintenance process an object is a maintenance work order (MWO). This study demonstrates a maintenance simulation model for the building maintenance division of Saudi Consolidated Electric Company (SCECO) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia. The model focused on both types of maintenance processes namely: (1) preventive maintenance (PM) and (2) corrective maintenance (CM). It is apparent from the findings that object-oriented simulation is a good diagnostic and experimental tool. This is because problems, limitations, bottlenecks and so forth are easily identified. These features are very difficult to obtain when using other tools.

Keywords: Object oriented, simulation, maintenance, process, work orders

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Authors: Seung Woo Lee, So Jeong Nam, Jai-Kyung Lee

Abstract:

It can be said that the business sector is faced with a range of challenges–a rapidly changing business environment, an increase and diversification of customers- demands and the consequent need for quick response–for having in place flexible management and production info systems. As a matter of fact, many manufacturers have adopted production info management systems such as MES and ERP. Nevertheless, managers are having difficulties obtaining ever-changing production process information in real time, or responding quickly to any change in production related needs on the basis of such information. This is because they rely on poor production info systems which are not capable of providing real-time factory settings. If the manufacturer doesn-t have a capacity for collecting or digitalizing the 4 Ms (Man, Machine, Material, Method), which are resources for production, on a real time basis, it might to difficult to effectively maintain the information on production process. In this regard, this paper will introduce some new alternatives to the existing methods of collecting the 4 Ms in real time, which are currently comprise the production field.

Keywords: 4M, Acquisition of Data on shop-floor, Real-time machine interface

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Authors: Siva Prasad Darla, C. D. Naiju, K. Annamalai, Y. Upendra Sravan

Abstract:

In recent years, environment regulation forcing manufactures to consider recovery activity of end-of- life products and/or return products for refurbishing, recycling, remanufacturing/repair and disposal in supply chain management. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated for single product production-inventory system considering remanufacturing/reuse of return products and rate of return products follows a demand like function, dependent on purchasing price and acceptance quality level. It is useful in decision making to determine whether to go for remanufacturing or disposal of returned products along with newly produced products to satisfy a stationary demand. In addition, a modified genetic algorithm approach is proposed, inspired by particle swarm optimization method. Numerical analysis of the case study is carried out to validate the model.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Production, Remanufacturing.

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Authors: C. D. Naiju, K. Annamalai, Siva Prasad Darla, Y. Murali Krishna

Abstract:

This work presents the results of a study carried out to determine the sliding wear behavior and its effect on the process parameters of components manufactured by direct metal laser sintering (DMLS). A standard procedure and specimen had been used in the present study to find the wear behavior. Using Taguchi-s experimental technique, an orthogonal array of modified L8 had been developed. Sliding wear testing using pin-on-disk machine was carried out and analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique was used to investigate the effect of process parameters and to identify the main process parameter that influences the properties of wear behavior on the DMLS components. It has been found that part orientation, one of the selected process parameter had more influence on wear as compared to other selected process parameters.

Keywords: ANOVA, DMLS, Taguchi, Wear.

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Authors: N. Asadi, M. Jackson

Abstract:

Today, the central role of industrial robots in automation in general and in material handling in particular is crystal clear. Based on the current status of Photovoltaics and by focusing on lightweight material handling, PV industry has turned into a potential candidate for introducing a fresh “pick and place" robot technology. Thus, to examine the industry needs in this regard, firstly the best suited applications for such robotic automation,and then the essential prerequisites in PV industry should be identified. The objective of this paper is to present holistic views on the industry trends, general automation status and existing challenges facing lightweight robotic material handling in PV Silicon Wafer and Thin Film technologies. The results of this study show that currently no uniform pick and place solution prevails among PV Silicon Wafer manufacturers and the industry calls for a new robot solution to satisfy its needs in new directions.

Keywords: Automation, Material handling, Photovoltaic, Robot.

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Authors: Joseph Oh, Bo-Hyun Kim, Jae-Yong Baek

Abstract:

This study suggests how an order-receiving company can avoid disclosing schedule information on unit tasks to the order-placing company when carrying out a collaborative project on the value chain in an order-oriented industry. Specifically, it suggests methods for keeping schedule information confidential, and categorizes potential situations by inter-task dependency. Lastly, an approach to select the most optimal non-disclosure method is discussed. With the methods for not disclosing work-related information suggested in the study, order-receiving companies can logically deal with political issues relating to the question of whether or not to disclose information upon the execution of a collaborative project in cooperation with an order-placing firm. Moreover, order-placing companies can monitor undistorted information, while respecting the legitimate rights of an order-receiving company. Therefore, it is fair to say that the suggestions made in this study will contribute to the smooth operation of collaborative intercompany projects.

Keywords: collaborative project, dependency, schedule management, unit task.

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Authors: Nabil M. Muhaisen, Rajab Abdullah Hokoma

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with calculating boiler efficiency as one of the most important types of performance measurements in any steam power plant. That has a key role in determining the overall effectiveness of the whole system within the power station. For this calculation, a Visual-Basic program was developed, and a steam power plant known as El-Khmus power plant, Libya was selected as a case study. The calculation of the boiler efficiency was applied by using heating balance method. The findings showed how the maximum heat energy which produced from the boiler increases the boiler efficiency through increasing the temperature of the feed water, and decreasing the exhaust temperature along with humidity levels of the of fuel used within the boiler.

Keywords: Boiler, Calculation, Efficiency, Performance. Steam

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Authors: Debal Saha, NirmalBaranHui

Abstract:

The present paper discusses the basic concepts and the underlying principles of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) along with an interdisciplinary exploitation of these principles. It has been found that they have been utilized for lots of research and studies on various systems spanning across diverse engineering and scientific realms showing the need of development of a proper generalized framework. Such framework has been developed for the Multi-Agent Systems and it has been generalized keeping in mind the diverse areas where they find application. All the related aspects have been categorized and a general definition has been given where ever possible.

Keywords: Generalized framework, multiagent systems.

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Authors: H. Harada, S. Nishida, T. Nagumo, M. Endo, H. Watari

Abstract:

This study was aimed for investigating of manufacturing high aluminum content Mg alloys using a horizontal twin roll caster. Recently, weight saving has been key issues for lighter transport equipments as well as electronic component parts. As alternative materials to aluminum alloys, developing magnesium alloy with higher strength has been expected. Normally high Aluminum content Mg alloy has poor ductility and is difficult to be rolled because of its high strength. However, twin roll casting process is suitable for manufacturing wrought Mg alloys because materials can be cast directly from molten metal. In this study, manufacturing of high aluminum content magnesium alloy sheet using the roll casting process has been carried out. Effects of manufacturing parameter, such as roll velocity, pouring temperature and roll gap, on casting was investigated. A microscopic observation of the crystals of cross section of as cast strip as well as rolled strip was conducted.

Keywords: AZ91, AZ111, AZ121, Magnesium alloys, Twin roll casting

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Authors: A. Eman Mohammed

Abstract:

Algae-based fuel are considered a promising sources of clean energy, and because it has many advantages over traditional biofuel, research and business ventures have driven into developing and producing Algal-biofuel. But its production stages create a cost structure that it is not competitive with traditional fuels. Therefore, cost becomes the main obstacle in commercial production purpose. However, the present research which aims at using cost structure model, and designed MS-Dose program, to investigate the a mount of production cost and determined the parameter had great effect on it, second to measured the amount of contribution rate of algae in process the pollution by capturing Co2 from air . The result generated from the model shows that the production cost of biomass is between $0.137 /kg for 100 ha and $0.132 /kg for 500 ha which was less than cost of other studies, while gallon costs between $3.4 - 3.5, more than traditional sources of oil about $1 ,which regarded as a rate of contribution of algal in capturing CO2 from air.

Keywords: Cost Structure Model, Operation Costs(Production Cost), Capital Costs, Algae.

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Authors: Irina Pyrlina

Abstract:

This article presents the results of a study conducted to identify operational risks for information systems (IS) with service-oriented architecture (SOA). Analysis of current approaches to risk and system error classifications revealed that the system error classes were never used for SOA risk estimation. Additionally system error classes are not normallyexperimentally supported with realenterprise error data. Through the study several categories of various existing error classifications systems are applied and three new error categories with sub-categories are identified. As a part of operational risks a new error classification scheme is proposed for SOA applications. It is based on errors of real information systems which are service providers for application with service-oriented architecture. The proposed classification approach has been used to classify SOA system errors for two different enterprises (oil and gas industry, metal and mining industry). In addition we have conducted a research to identify possible losses from operational risks.

Keywords: Enterprise architecture, Error classification, Oil&Gas and Metal&Mining industries, Operational risks, Serviceoriented architecture

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, S. Toniato, E. Benini

Abstract:

The flow filed around a flatted-roof compound has been investigated by means of 2D and 3D numerical simulations. A constant wind velocity profile, based both on the maximum reference wind speed in the building site (peak gust speed worked out for a 50- year return period) and on the local roughness coefficient, has been simulated in order to determine the wind-induced loads on top of the roof. After determining the influence of the incoming wind directions on the induced roof loads, a 2D analysis of the most severe load condition has been performed, achieving a numerical quantification of the expected wind-induced forces on the PV panels on top of the roof.

Keywords: CFD, wind-induced loads, flow around buildings, photovoltaic system

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Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

Abstract:

Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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