Search results for: weather prediction

Authors: Abisha Isaac Mohanlal

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Amidst all suspicions and cynicism raised by the legal fraternity, Artificial Intelligence has found its way into the legal system and has revolutionized the conventional forms of legal services delivery. Be it legal argumentation and research or resolution of complex legal disputes; artificial intelligence has crept into all legs of modern day legal services. Its impact has been largely felt by way of big data, legal expert systems, prediction tools, e-lawyering, automated mediation, etc., and lawyers around the world are forced to upgrade themselves and their firms to stay in line with the growth of technology in law. Researchers predict that the future of legal services would belong to artificial intelligence and that the age of human lawyers will soon rust. But as far as the Judiciary is concerned, even in the developed countries, the system has not fully drifted away from the orthodoxy of preferring Natural Intelligence over Artificial Intelligence. Since Judicial decision-making involves a lot of unstructured and rather unprecedented situations which have no single correct answer, and looming questions of legal interpretation arise in most of the cases, discretion and Emotional Intelligence play an unavoidable role. Added to that, there are several ethical, moral and policy issues to be confronted before permitting the intrusion of Artificial Intelligence into the judicial system. As of today, the human judge is the unrivalled master of most of the judicial systems around the globe. Yet, scientists of Artificial Intelligence claim that robot judges can replace human judges irrespective of how daunting the complexity of issues is and how sophisticated the cognitive competence required is. They go on to contend that even if the system is too rigid to allow robot judges to substitute human judges in the recent future, Artificial Intelligence may still aid in other judicial tasks such as drafting judicial documents, intelligent document assembly, case retrieval, etc., and also promote overall flexibility, efficiency, and accuracy in the disposal of cases. By deconstructing the major challenges that Artificial Intelligence has to overcome in order to successfully invade the human- dominated judicial sphere, and critically evaluating the potential differences it would make in the system of justice delivery, the author tries to argue that penetration of Artificial Intelligence into the Judiciary could surely be enhancive and reparative, if not fully transformative.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, judicial decision making, judicial systems, legal services delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Atlal El-Assaad

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Viruses change with time through mutations and result in new variants that may persist or disappear. A Mutation refers to an actual change in the virus genetic sequence, and a variant is a viral genome that may contain one or more mutations. Critical mutations may cause the virus to be more transmissible, with high disease severity, and more vulnerable to diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. Thus, variants carrying such mutations may increase the risk to human health and are considered variants of concern (VOC). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) - the contagious in humans, positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus that caused coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - has been studied thoroughly, and several variants were revealed across the world with their corresponding mutations. SARS-CoV-2 has four structural proteins, known as the S (spike), E (envelope), M (membrane), and N (nucleocapsid) proteins, but prior study and vaccines development focused on genetic mutations in the S protein due to its vital role in allowing the virus to attach and fuse with the membrane of a host cell. Specifically, subunit S1 catalyzes attachment, whereas subunit S2 mediates fusion. In this perspective, we studied all charged amino acid mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 viral spike protein S1 when bound to Antibody CC12.1 in a crystal structure and assessed the effect of different mutations. We generated all missense mutants of SARS-CoV-2 protein amino acids (AAs) within the SARS-CoV-2:CC12.1 complex model. To generate the family of mutants in each complex, we mutated every charged amino acid with all other charged amino acids (Lysine (K), Arginine (R), Glutamic Acid (E), and Aspartic Acid (D)) and studied the new binding of the complex after each mutation. We applied Poisson-Boltzmann electrostatic calculations feeding into free energy calculations to determine the effect of each mutation on binding. After analyzing our data, we identified charged amino acids keys for binding. Furthermore, we validated those findings against published experimental genetic data. Our results are the first to propose in silico potential life-threatening mutations of SARS-CoV-2 beyond the present mutations found in the five common variants found worldwide.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, variant, ionic amino acid, protein-protein interactions, missense mutation, AESOP

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Authors: Geun-Yeon Kim, S. P. Praveen Kumar, Kwon-Hee Lee

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A steering knuckle arm is the component that connects the steering system and suspension system. The structural performances such as stiffness, strength, and durability are considered in its design process. The former study suggested the lightweight design of a knuckle arm considering the structural performances and using the metamodel-based optimization. The six shape design variables were defined, and the optimum design was calculated by applying the kriging interpolation method. The finite element method was utilized to predict the structural responses. The suggested knuckle was made of the aluminum Al6082, and its weight was reduced about 60% in comparison with the base steel knuckle, satisfying the design requirements. Then, we investigated its manufacturability by performing foraging analysis. The forging was done as hot process, and the product was made through two-step forging. As a final step of its developing process, the durability is investigated by using the flexible dynamic analysis software, LS-DYNA and the pre and post processor, eta/VPG. Generally, a car make does not provide all the information with the part manufacturer. Thus, the part manufacturer has a limit in predicting the durability performance with the unit of full car. The eta/VPG has the libraries of suspension, tire, and road, which are commonly used parts. That makes a full car modeling. First, the full car is modeled by referencing the following information; Overall Length: 3,595mm, Overall Width: 1,595mm, CVW (Curve Vehicle Weight): 910kg, Front Suspension: MacPherson Strut, Rear Suspension: Torsion Beam Axle, Tire: 235/65R17. Second, the road is selected as the cobblestone. The road condition of the cobblestone is almost 10 times more severe than that of usual paved road. Third, the dynamic finite element analysis using the LS-DYNA is performed to predict the durability performance of the suggested knuckle arm. The life of the suggested knuckle arm is calculated as 350,000km, which satisfies the design requirement set up by the part manufacturer. In this study, the overall design process of a knuckle arm is suggested, and it can be seen that the developed knuckle arm satisfies the design requirement of the durability with the unit of full car. The VPG analysis is successfully performed even though it does not an exact prediction since the full car model is very rough one. Thus, this approach can be used effectively when the detail to full car is not given.

Keywords: knuckle arm, structural optimization, Metamodel, forging, durability, VPG (Virtual Proving Ground)

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Authors: Rafal Bryk, Holger Schmidt, Thomas Mull, Ingo Ganzmann, Oliver Herbst

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Prediction of the two-phase water mixture level during fast depressurization of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) resulting from an accident scenario is an important issue from the view point of the reactor safety. Since the level swell may influence the behavior of some passive safety systems, it has been recognized that an assumption which at the beginning may be considered as a conservative one, not necessary leads to a conservative result. This paper discusses outcomes obtained during simulations of the water dynamics and heat transfer during sudden depressurization of a vessel filled up to a certain level with liquid water under saturation conditions and with the rest of the vessel occupied by saturated steam. In case of the pressure decrease e.g. due to the main steam line break, the liquid water evaporates abruptly, being a reason thereby, of strong transients in the vessel. These transients and the sudden emergence of void in the region occupied at the beginning by liquid, cause elevation of the two-phase mixture. In this work, several models calculating the water collapse and swell levels are presented and validated against experimental data. Each of the models uses different approach to calculate void fraction. The object-oriented models were developed with the Modelica modelling language and the OpenModelica environment. The models represent the RPV of the Integral Test Facility Karlstein (INKA) – a dedicated test rig for simulation of KERENA – a new Boiling Water Reactor design of Framatome. The models are based on dynamic mass and energy equations. They are divided into several dynamic volumes in each of which, the fluid may be single-phase liquid, steam or a two-phase mixture. The heat transfer between the wall of the vessel and the fluid is taken into account. Additional heat flow rate may be applied to the first volume of the vessel in order to simulate the decay heat of the reactor core in a similar manner as it is simulated at INKA. The comparison of the simulations results against the reference data shows a good agreement.

Keywords: boiling water reactor, level swell, Modelica, RPV depressurization, thermal-hydraulics

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Authors: Yosep Chong, Yejin Kim, Jingyun Choi, Hwanjo Yu, Eun Jung Lee, Chang Suk Kang

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For the past decades, immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been playing an important role in the diagnosis of human neoplasms, by helping pathologists to make a clearer decision on differential diagnosis, subtyping, personalized treatment plan, and finally prognosis prediction. However, the IHC performed in various tumors of daily practice often shows conflicting and very challenging results to interpret. Even comprehensive diagnosis synthesizing clinical, histologic and immunohistochemical findings can be helpless in some twisted cases. Another important issue is that the IHC data is increasing exponentially and more and more information have to be taken into account. For this reason, we reached an idea to develop an expert supporting system to help pathologists to make a better decision in diagnosing human neoplasms with IHC results. We gave probabilistic decision tree algorithm and tested the algorithm with real case data of lymphoid neoplasms, in which the IHC profile is more important to make a proper diagnosis than other human neoplasms. We designed probabilistic decision tree based on Bayesian theorem, program computational process using MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc., USA) and prepared IHC profile database (about 104 disease category and 88 IHC antibodies) based on WHO classification by reviewing the literature. The initial probability of each neoplasm was set with the epidemiologic data of lymphoid neoplasm in Korea. With the IHC results of 131 patients sequentially selected, top three presumptive diagnoses for each case were made and compared with the original diagnoses. After the review of the data, 124 out of 131 were used for final analysis. As a result, the presumptive diagnoses were concordant with the original diagnoses in 118 cases (93.7%). The major reason of discordant cases was that the similarity of the IHC profile between two or three different neoplasms. The expert supporting system algorithm presented in this study is in its elementary stage and need more optimization using more advanced technology such as deep-learning with data of real cases, especially in differentiating T-cell lymphomas. Although it needs more refinement, it may be used to aid pathological decision making in future. A further application to determine IHC antibodies for a certain subset of differential diagnoses might be possible in near future.

Keywords: database, expert supporting system, immunohistochemistry, probabilistic decision tree

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Authors: Mohd Ayyub Khan, Nadeem Akhtar

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Due to recent advances in wireless communication technologies and hand-held devices, there is a huge demand for video-based applications such as video surveillance, video conferencing, remote surgery, Digital Video Broadcast (DVB), IPTV, online learning courses, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, Interactive Video Games. However, the raw videos posses very high bandwidth which makes the compression a must before its transmission over the wireless channels. The High Efficiency Video Codec (HEVC) (also called H.265) is latest state-of-the-art video coding standard developed by the Joint effort of ITU-T and ISO/IEC teams. HEVC is targeted for high resolution videos such as 4K or 8K resolutions that can fulfil the recent demands for video services. The compression ratio achieved by the HEVC is twice as compared to its predecessor H.264/AVC for same quality level. The compression efficiency is generally increased by removing more correlation between the frames/pixels using complex techniques such as extensive intra and inter prediction techniques. As more correlation is removed, the chances of interdependency among coded bits increases. Thus, bit errors may have large effect on the reconstructed video. Sometimes even single bit error can lead to catastrophic failure of the reconstructed video. In this paper, we study the performance of HEVC bitstream over additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. Moreover, HEVC over Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) combined with forward error correction (FEC) schemes are also explored over the noisy channel. The video will be encoded using HEVC, and the coded bitstream is channel coded to provide some redundancies. The channel coded bitstream is then modulated using QAM and transmitted over AWGN channel. At the receiver, the symbols are demodulated and channel decoded to obtain the video bitstream. The bitstream is then used to reconstruct the video using HEVC decoder. It is observed that as the signal to noise ratio of channel is decreased the quality of the reconstructed video decreases drastically. Using proper FEC codes, the quality of the video can be restored up to certain extent. Thus, the performance analysis of HEVC presented in this paper may assist in designing the optimized code rate of FEC such that the quality of the reconstructed video is maximized over wireless channels.

Keywords: AWGN, forward error correction, HEVC, video coding, QAM

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Authors: Ahmed Abdulrahman, Jalal Foroozesh

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CO₂ based enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques have gained massive attention from major oil firms since they resolve the industry's two main concerns of CO₂ contribution to the greenhouse effect and the declined oil production. Carbonated water injection (CWI) is a promising EOR technique that promotes safe and economic CO₂ storage; moreover, it mitigates the pitfalls of CO₂ injection, which include low sweep efficiency, early CO₂ breakthrough, and the risk of CO₂ leakage in fractured formations. One of the main challenges that hinder the wide adoption of this EOR technique is the complexity of accurate modeling of the kinetics of CO₂ mass transfer. The mechanisms of CO₂ mass transfer during CWI include the slow and gradual cross-phase CO₂ diffusion from carbonated water (CW) to the oil phase and the CO₂ dispersion (within phase diffusion and mechanical mixing), which affects the oil physical properties and the spatial spreading of CO₂ inside the reservoir. A 2D non-equilibrium compositional simulator has been developed using a fully implicit finite difference approximation. The material balance term (k) was added to the governing equation to account for the slow cross-phase diffusion of CO₂ from CW to the oil within the gird cell. Also, longitudinal and transverse dispersion coefficients have been added to account for CO₂ spatial distribution inside the oil phase. The CO₂-oil diffusion coefficient was calculated using the Sigmund correlation, while a scale-dependent dispersivity was used to calculate CO₂ mechanical mixing. It was found that the CO₂-oil diffusion mechanism has a minor impact on oil recovery, but it tends to increase the amount of CO₂ stored inside the formation and slightly alters the residual oil properties. On the other hand, the mechanical mixing mechanism has a huge impact on CO₂ spatial spreading (accurate prediction of CO₂ production) and the noticeable change in oil physical properties tends to increase the recovery factor. A sensitivity analysis has been done to investigate the effect of formation heterogeneity (porosity, permeability) and injection rate, it was found that the formation heterogeneity tends to increase CO₂ dispersion coefficients, and a low injection rate should be implemented during CWI.

Keywords: CO₂ mass transfer, carbonated water injection, CO₂ dispersion, CO₂ diffusion, cross phase CO₂ diffusion, within phase CO2 diffusion, CO₂ mechanical mixing, non-equilibrium simulation

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Authors: Shahnam Behnam Malekzadeh, Ian Kerr, Tyson Kaempffer, Teague Harper, Andrew Watson

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The Site C Hydroelectric dam is currently being constructed in north-eastern British Columbia on sub-horizontal sedimentary strata that dip approximately 15 meters from one bank of the Peace River to the other. More than 615 pressure sensors (Vibrating Wire Piezometers) have been installed on bedding planes (BPs) since construction began, with over 80 more planned before project completion. These pressure measurements are essential to monitor the stability of the rock foundation during and after construction and for dam safety purposes. BPs are identified by their clay gouge infilling, which varies in thickness from less than 1 to 20 mm and can be challenging to identify as the core drilling process often disturbs or washes away the gouge material. Without the use of depth predictions from nearby boreholes, stratigraphic markers, and downhole geophysical data, it is difficult to confidently identify BP targets for the sensors. In this paper, a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method was used to develop an empirical model called the Bedding Plane Elevation Prediction (BPEP) to help geologists and geotechnical engineers to predict geological features and bedding planes at new locations in a fast and accurate manner. To develop CBR, a database was developed based on 64 pressure sensors already installed on key bedding planes BP25, BP28, and BP31 on the Right Bank, including bedding plane elevations and coordinates. Thirteen (20%) of the most recent cases were selected to validate and evaluate the accuracy of the developed model, while the similarity was defined as the distance between previous cases and recent cases to predict the depth of significant BPs. The average difference between actual BP elevations and predicted elevations for above BPs was ±55cm, while the actual results showed that 69% of predicted elevations were within ±79 cm of actual BP elevations while 100% of predicted elevations for new cases were within ±99cm range. Eventually, the actual results will be used to develop the database and improve BPEP to perform as a learning machine to predict more accurate BP elevations for future sensor installations.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, geological feature, geology, piezometer, pressure sensor, core logging, dam construction

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Authors: Adnan A. Kadi, Nasser S. Al-Shakliah, Haitham Al-Rabiah

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Zorifertinib is a novel, potent, oral, a small molecule used to treat non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). zorifertinib is an Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) inhibitor and has good blood–brain barrier permeability for (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutations. zorifertinibis currently at phase II/III clinical trials. The current research reports the characterization and identification of in vitro, in vivo and reactive intermediates of zorifertinib. Prediction of susceptible sites of metabolism and reactivity pathways (cyanide and GSH) of zorifertinib were performed by the Xenosite web predictor tool. In-vitro metabolites of zorifertinib were performed by incubation with rat liver microsomes (RLMs) and isolated perfused rat liver hepatocytes. Extraction of zorifertinib and it's in vitro metabolites from the incubation mixtures were done by protein precipitation. In vivo metabolism was done by giving a single oral dose of zorifertinib(10 mg/Kg) to Sprague Dawely rats in metabolic cages by using oral gavage. Urine was gathered and filtered at specific time intervals (0, 6, 12, 18, 24, 48, 72,96and 120 hr) from zorifertinib dosing. A similar volume of ACN was added to each collected urine sample. Both layers (organic and aqueous) were injected into liquid chromatography ion trap mass spectrometry(LC-IT-MS) to detect vivozorifertinib metabolites. N-methyl piperizine ring and quinazoline group of zorifertinib undergoe metabolism forming iminium and electro deficient conjugated system respectively, which are very reactive toward nucleophilic macromolecules. Incubation of zorifertinib with RLMs in the presence of 1.0 mM KCN and 1.0 Mm glutathione were made to check reactive metabolites as it is often responsible for toxicities associated with this drug. For in vitro metabolites there were nine in vitro phase I metabolites, four in vitro phase II metabolites, eleven reactive metabolites(three cyano adducts, five GSH conjugates metabolites, and three methoxy metabolites of zorifertinib were detected by LC-IT-MS. For in vivo metabolites, there were eight in vivo phase I, tenin vivo phase II metabolitesofzorifertinib were detected by LC-IT-MS. In vitro and in vivo phase I metabolic pathways wereN- demthylation, O-demethylation, hydroxylation, reduction, defluorination, and dechlorination. In vivo phase II metabolic reaction was direct conjugation of zorifertinib with glucuronic acid and sulphate.

Keywords: in vivo metabolites, in vitro metabolites, cyano adducts, GSH conjugate

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

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Authors: Janet Modu, Jean-Francois Georgin, Laurent Briancon, Eric Antoinet

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The current practice during the repowering phase of wind turbines is deconstruction of existing foundations and construction of new foundations to accept larger wind loads or once the foundations have reached the end of their service lives. The ongoing research project FUI25 FEDRE (Fondations d’Eoliennes Durables et REpowering) therefore serves to propose scalable wind turbine foundation designs to allow reuse of the existing foundations. To undertake this research, numerical models and laboratory-scale models are currently being utilized and implemented in the GEOMAS laboratory at INSA Lyon following instrumentation of a reference wind turbine situated in the Northern part of France. Sensors placed within both the foundation and the underlying soil monitor the evolution of stresses from the foundation’s early age to stresses during service. The results from the instrumentation form the basis of validation for both the laboratory and numerical works conducted throughout the project duration. The study currently focuses on the effect of coupled mechanisms (Thermal-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical) that induce stress during the early age of the reinforced concrete foundation, and scale factor considerations in the replication of the reference wind turbine foundation at laboratory-scale. Using THMC 3D models on COMSOL Multi-physics software, the numerical analysis performed on both the laboratory-scale and the full-scale foundations simulate the thermal deformation, hydration, shrinkage (desiccation and autogenous) and creep so as to predict the initial damage caused by internal processes during concrete setting and hardening. Results show a prominent effect of early age properties on the damage potential in full-scale wind turbine foundations. However, a prediction of the damage potential at laboratory scale shows significant differences in early age stresses in comparison to the full-scale model depending on the spatial position in the foundation. In addition to the well-known size effect phenomenon, these differences may contribute to inaccuracies encountered when predicting ultimate deformations of the on-site foundation using laboratory scale models.

Keywords: cement hydration, early age behavior, reinforced concrete, shrinkage, THMC 3D models, wind turbines

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Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

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The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Vidhya Venugopal, Jeremiah Chinnadurai, Rebekah A. I. Lucas, Tord Kjellstrom, Bruno Lemke

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Introduction: The effects of climate change (CC) are largely discussed across the globe in terms of impacts on the environment and the general population, but the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored. The predicted rise in temperatures and heat events in the CC scenario have health implications on millions of workers in physically exerting jobs. The current health and productivity risks associated with heat exposures are characterized, future risk estimates as temperature rises and recommendations towards developing protective and preventive occupational health and safety guidelines for India are discussed. Methodology: Cross-sectional studies were conducted in several occupational sectors with workers engaged in moderate to heavy labor (n=1580). Quantitative data on heat exposures (WBGT°C), physiological heat strain indicators viz., Core temperature (CBT), Urine specific gravity (USG), Sweat rate (SwR) and qualitative data on heat-related health symptoms and productivity losses were collected. Data were analyzed for associations between heat exposures, health and productivity outcomes related to heat stress. Findings: Heat conditions exceeded the Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for safe manual work in 66% of the workers across several sectors (Avg.WBGT of 28.7°C±3.1°C). Widespread concerns about heat-related health outcomes (86%) were prevalent among workers exposed to high TLVs, with excessive sweating, fatigue and tiredness being commonly reported by workers. The heat stress indicators, core temperature (14%), Sweat rate (8%) and USG (9%), were above normal levels in the study population. A significant association was found between rise in Core Temperatures and WBGT exposures (p=0.000179) Elevated USG and SwR in the worker population indicate moderate dehydration, with potential risks of developing heat-related illnesses. In a steel industry with high heat exposures, an alarming 9% prevalence of kidney/urogenital anomalies was observed in a young workforce. Heat exposures above TLVs were associated with significantly increased odds of various adverse health outcomes (OR=2.43, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.13, p-value = <0.0001) and productivity losses (OR=1.79, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.4, p-value = 0.0002). Rough estimates for the number of workers who would be subjected to higher than TLV levels in the various RCP scenarios are RCP2.6 =79%, RCP4.5 & RCP6 = 81% and at RCP 8.5 = 85%. Rising temperatures due to CC has the capacity to further reduce already compromised health and productivity by subjecting the workers to increased heat exposures in the RCP scenarios are of concern for the country’s occupational health and economy. Conclusion: The findings of this study clearly identify that health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in the Indian subcontinent and understanding the various adaptation techniques needs urgent attention. Further research with a multi-targeted approach to develop strategies for implementing interventions to protect the millions of workers is imperative. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the “Health in All Policies” approach to avert adverse health and productivity consequences as climate change proceeds.

Keywords: heat stress, occupational health, productivity loss, heat strain, adverse health outcomes

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Authors: Vaidehi Murarka, Sneha Mehta, Dishant Upadhyay

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Our project topic is “Alphabet Recognition using pixel probability distribution”. The project uses techniques of Image Processing and Machine Learning in Computer Vision. Alphabet recognition is the mechanical or electronic translation of scanned images of handwritten, typewritten or printed text into machine-encoded text. It is widely used to convert books and documents into electronic files etc. Alphabet Recognition based OCR application is sometimes used in signature recognition which is used in bank and other high security buildings. One of the popular mobile applications includes reading a visiting card and directly storing it to the contacts. OCR's are known to be used in radar systems for reading speeders license plates and lots of other things. The implementation of our project has been done using Visual Studio and Open CV (Open Source Computer Vision). Our algorithm is based on Neural Networks (machine learning). The project was implemented in three modules: (1) Training: This module aims “Database Generation”. Database was generated using two methods: (a) Run-time generation included database generation at compilation time using inbuilt fonts of OpenCV library. Human intervention is not necessary for generating this database. (b) Contour–detection: ‘jpeg’ template containing different fonts of an alphabet is converted to the weighted matrix using specialized functions (contour detection and blob detection) of OpenCV. The main advantage of this type of database generation is that the algorithm becomes self-learning and the final database requires little memory to be stored (119kb precisely). (2) Preprocessing: Input image is pre-processed using image processing concepts such as adaptive thresholding, binarizing, dilating etc. and is made ready for segmentation. “Segmentation” includes extraction of lines, words, and letters from the processed text image. (3) Testing and prediction: The extracted letters are classified and predicted using the neural networks algorithm. The algorithm recognizes an alphabet based on certain mathematical parameters calculated using the database and weight matrix of the segmented image.

Keywords: contour-detection, neural networks, pre-processing, recognition coefficient, runtime-template generation, segmentation, weight matrix

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Authors: Mir Ahmad Lashteh Neshaei, Hamed Afsoos Biria, Ata Ghabraei, Mir Abdolhamid Mehrdad

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Awareness of effective land using issues in coastal area including protection of natural ecosystems and coastal environment due to the increasing of human life along the coast is of great importance. There are numerous valuable structures and heritages which are located in defence sites and waterfront area. Marine structures such as groins, sea walls and detached breakwaters are constructed in coast to improve the coast stability against bed erosion due to changing wave and climate pattern. Marine mechanisms and interaction with the shore protection structures need to be intensively studied. Groins are one of the most prominent structures that are used in shore protection to create a safe environment for coastal area by maintaining the land against progressive coastal erosion. The main structural function of a groin is to control the long shore current and littoral sediment transport. This structure can be submerged and provide the necessary beach protection without negative environmental impact. However, for submerged structures adopted for beach protection, the shoreline response to these structures is not well understood at present. Nowadays, modelling and computer simulation are used to assess beach morphology in the vicinity of marine structures to reduce their environmental impact. The objective of this study is to predict the beach morphology in the vicinity of submerged groins and comparison with non-submerged groins with focus on a part of the coast located in Dahane sar Sefidrood, Guilan province, Iran where serious coast erosion has occurred recently. The simulations were obtained using a one-line model which can be used as a first approximation of shoreline prediction in the vicinity of groins. The results of the proposed model are compared with field measurements to determine the shape of the coast. Finally, the results of the present study show that using submerged groins can have a good efficiency to control the beach erosion without causing severe environmental impact to the coast. The important outcome from this study can be employed in optimum designing of defence sites in the coastal cities to improve their efficiency in terms of re-using the heritage lands.

Keywords: submerged structures, groin, shore protective structures, coastal cities

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Iyad Al-Attar

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Air filters are widely used in gas turbines applications to ensure that the large mass (500kg/s) of clean air reach the compressor. The continuous demand of high availability and reliability has highlighted the critical role of air filter performance in providing enhanced air quality. In addition to being challenged with different environments [tropical, coastal, hot], gas turbines confront wide array of atmospheric contaminants with various concentrations and particle size distributions that would lead to performance degradation and components deterioration. Therefore, the role of air filters is of a paramount importance since fouled compressor can reduce power output and availability of the gas turbine to over 70 % throughout operation. Consequently, accurate filter performance prediction is critical tool in their selection considering their role in minimizing the economic impact of outages. In fact, actual performance of Efficient Particulate Air [EPA] filters used in gas turbine tend to deviate from the performance predicted by laboratory results. This experimental work investigates the initial pressure drop and fractional efficiency curves of full-scale pleated V-shaped EPA filters used globally in gas turbine. The investigation involved examining the effect of different operational conditions such as flow rates [500 to 5000 m3/h] and design parameters such as pleat count [28, 30, 32 and 34 pleats per 100mm]. This experimental work has highlighted the underlying reasons behind the reduction in filter permeability due to the increase of flow rates and pleat density. The reasons, which led to surface area losses of filtration media, are due to one or combination of the following effects: pleat-crowding, deflection of the entire pleated panel, pleat distortion at the corner of the pleat and/or filtration medium compression. This paper also demonstrates that the effect of increasing the flow rate has more pronounced effect on filter performance compared to pleating density. This experimental work suggests that a valid comparison of the pleat densities should be based on the effective surface area, namely, the area that participates in the filtration process, and not the total surface area the pleat density provides. Throughout this study, optimal pleat count that satisfies both initial pressure drop and efficiency requirements may not have necessarily existed.

Keywords: filter efficiency, EPA Filters, pressure drop, permeability

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Desplanches Maxime

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Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries for electronic devices is crucial. Data-driven methodologies encounter challenges related to data volume and acquisition protocols, particularly in capturing a comprehensive range of aging indicators. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates an electrochemical model with state-of-the-art data analysis techniques, yielding a comprehensive database. Our methodology involves infusing an aging phenomenon into a Newman model, leading to the creation of an extensive database capturing various aging states based on non-destructive parameters. This database serves as a robust foundation for subsequent analysis. Leveraging advanced data analysis techniques, notably principal component analysis and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding, we extract pivotal information from the data. This information is harnessed to construct a regression function using either random forest or support vector machine algorithms. The resulting predictor demonstrates a 5% error margin in estimating remaining battery life, providing actionable insights for optimizing usage. Furthermore, the database was built from the Newman model calibrated for aging and performance using data from a European project called Teesmat. The model was then initialized numerous times with different aging values, for instance, with varying thicknesses of SEI (Solid Electrolyte Interphase). This comprehensive approach ensures a thorough exploration of battery aging dynamics, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of our predictive model. Of particular importance is our reliance on the database generated through the integration of the electrochemical model. This database serves as a crucial asset in advancing our understanding of aging states. Beyond its capability for precise remaining life predictions, this database-driven approach offers valuable insights for optimizing battery usage and adapting the predictor to various scenarios. This underscores the practical significance of our method in facilitating better decision-making regarding lithium-ion battery management.

Keywords: Li-ion battery, aging, diagnostics, data analysis, prediction, machine learning, electrochemical model, regression

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Authors: Liliana Rusu

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The goal of the proposed work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind and wave climate in the Romanian nearshore, using the results provided by numerical models. The Romanian coastal environment is located in the western side of the Black Sea, the more energetic part of the sea, an area with heavy maritime traffic and various offshore operations. Information about the wind and wave climate in the Romanian waters is mainly based on observations at Gloria drilling platform (70 km from the coast). As regards the waves, the measurements of the wave characteristics are not so accurate due to the method used, being also available for a limited period. For this reason, the wave simulations that cover large temporal and spatial scales represent an option to describe better the wave climate. To assess the wind climate in the target area spanning 1992–2016, data provided by the NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and consisting in wind fields at 10m above the sea level are used. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the wind fields is good enough to represent the wind variability over the area. For the same 25-year period, as considered for the wind climate, this study characterizes the wave climate from a wave hindcast data set that uses NCEP-CFSR winds as input for a model system SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) based. The wave simulation results with a two-level modelling scale have been validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data. The second level of the system, with a higher resolution in the geographical space (0.02°×0.02°), is focused on the Romanian coastal environment. The main wave parameters simulated at this level are used to analyse the wave climate. The spatial distributions of the wind speed, wind direction and the mean significant wave height have been computed as the average of the total data. As resulted from the amount of data, the target area presents a generally moderate wave climate that is affected by the storm events developed in the Black Sea basin. Both wind and wave climate presents high seasonal variability. All the results are computed as maps that help to find the more dangerous areas. A local analysis has been also employed in some key locations corresponding to highly sensitive areas, as for example the main Romanian harbors.

Keywords: numerical simulations, Romanian nearshore, waves, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Andleeb Zahra, Itrat Rubab, Sumaira Malik, Amina Khan, Muhammad Jawad Khan, M. Qaiser Fatmi

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Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Recent studies have highlighted the role of miRNA in disease pathology, indicating its potential use in an early diagnostic tool. miRNAs are small, double stranded, non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by deregulating mRNAs. miRNAs play important roles in modifying various cellular processes such as cell growth, differentiation, apoptosis, and immune response. Dis-regulated expression of miRNAs is known to affect the cell growth, and this may function as tumor suppressors or oncogenes in various cancers. Objectives: The main objectives of this study were to characterize the extracellular miRNAs involved in oral cancer (OC) to assist early detection of cancer as well as to propose a list of genes that can potentially be used as biomarkers of OC. We used gene expression data by microarrays already available in literature. Materials and Methods: In the first step, a total of 318 miRNAs involved in oral carcinoma were shortlisted followed by the prediction of their target genes. Simultaneously, the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of oral carcinoma from all experiments were identified. The common genes between lists of DEGs of OC based on experimentally proven data and target genes of each miRNA were identified. These common genes are the targets of specific miRNA, which is involved in OC. Finally, a list of genes was generated which may be used as biomarker of OC. Results and Conclusion: In results, we included some of pathways in cancer to show the change in gene expression under the control of specific miRNA. Ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) provided a list of major biomarkers like CDH2, CDK7 and functional enrichment analysis identified the role of miRNA in major pathways like cell adhesion molecules pathway affected by cancer. We observed that at least 25 genes are regulated by maximum number of miRNAs, and thereby, they can be used as biomarkers of OC. To better understand the role of miRNA with respect to their target genes further experiments are required, and our study provides a platform to better understand the miRNA-OC relationship at genomics level.

Keywords: biomarkers, gene expression, miRNA, oral carcinoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Mariangela Viviani, Daniele Germano, Simone Colace, Agostino Forestiero, Giuseppe Papuzzo, Sara Laurita

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Nowadays, people spend most of their time in closed environments, in offices, or at home. Therefore, secure and highly livable environmental conditions are needed to reduce the probability of aerial viruses spreading. Also, to lower the human impact on the planet, it is important to reduce energy consumption. Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the major part of energy consumption in buildings [1]. Devising systems to control and regulate the airflow is, therefore, essential for energy efficiency. Moreover, an optimal setting for thermal comfort and air quality is essential for people’s well-being, at home or in offices, and increases productivity. Thanks to the features of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools and techniques, it is possible to design innovative systems with: (i) Improved monitoring and prediction accuracy; (ii) Enhanced decision-making and mitigation strategies; (iii) Real-time air quality information; (iv) Increased efficiency in data analysis and processing; (v) Advanced early warning systems for air pollution events; (vi) Automated and cost-effective m onitoring network; and (vii) A better understanding of air quality patterns and trends. We propose AIR SAFE, an IoT-based infrastructure designed to optimize air quality and thermal comfort in indoor environments leveraging AI tools. AIR SAFE employs a network of smart sensors collecting indoor and outdoor data to be analyzed in order to take any corrective measures to ensure the occupants’ wellness. The data are analyzed through AI algorithms able to predict the future levels of temperature, relative humidity, and CO₂ concentration [2]. Based on these predictions, AIR SAFE takes actions, such as opening/closing the window or the air conditioner, to guarantee a high level of thermal comfort and air quality in the environment. In this contribution, we present the results from the AI algorithm we have implemented on the first s et o f d ata c ollected i n a real environment. The results were compared with other models from the literature to validate our approach.

Keywords: air quality, internet of things, artificial intelligence, smart home

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Lexi Li, Vanessa H. K. Pang

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This study aims to demonstrate how native and learner corpora can be used to enhance modal verb treatment in EFL textbooks in mainland China. It contributes to a corpus-informed and learner-centered design of grammar presentation in EFL textbooks that enhances the authenticity and appropriateness of textbook language for target learners. The linguistic focus is will, would, can, could, may, might, shall, should, must. The native corpus is the spoken component of BNC2014 (hereafter BNCS2014). The spoken part is chosen because pedagogical purpose of the textbooks is communication-oriented. Using the standard query option of CQPweb, 5% of each of the nine modals was sampled from BNCS2014. The learner corpus is the POS-tagged Ten-thousand English Compositions of Chinese Learners (TECCL). All the essays under the 'secondary school' section were selected. A series of five secondary coursebooks comprise the textbook corpus. All the data in both the learner and the textbook corpora are retrieved through the concordance functions of WordSmith Tools (version, 5.0). Data analysis was divided into two parts. The first part compared the patterns of modal verbs in the textbook corpus and BNC2014 with respect to distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions to examine whether the textbooks reflect the authentic use of English. Secondly, the learner corpus was analyzed in terms of the use (distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions) and the misuse (syntactic errors, e.g., she can sings*.) of the nine modal verbs to uncover potential difficulties that confront learners. The analysis of distribution indicates several discrepancies between the textbook corpus and BNCS2014. The first four most frequent modal verbs in BNCS2014 are can, would, will, could, while can, will, should, could are the top four in the textbooks. Most strikingly, there is an unusually high proportion of can (41.1%) in the textbooks. The results on different meanings shows that will, would and must are the most problematic. For example, for will, the textbooks contain 20% more occurrences of 'volition' and 20% less of 'prediction' than those in BNCS2014. Regarding co-occurring structures, the textbooks over-represented the structure 'modal +do' across the nine modal verbs. Another major finding is that the structure of 'modal +have done' that frequently co-occur with could, would, should, and must is underused in textbooks. Besides, these four modal verbs are the most difficult for learners, as the error analysis shows. This study demonstrates how the synergy of native and learner corpora can be harnessed to improve EFL textbook presentation of modal verbs in a way that textbooks can provide not only authentic language used in natural discourse but also appropriate design tailed for the needs of target learners.

Keywords: English as Foreign Language, EFL textbooks, learner corpus, modal verbs, native corpus

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Zainab S. Ahmed, Mohammed S. Ali, Nadia A. Elshiekh, Sami Adam Ibrahim, Ghada M. El-Tayeb, Ahmed H. Elsadig, Rihab A. Omer, Sofia B. Mohamed

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Maple syrup urine (MSUD) is an autosomal recessive disease that causes a deficiency in the enzyme branched-chain alpha-keto acid (BCKA) dehydrogenase. The development of disease has been associated with SNPs in the DBT gene. Despite that, the computational analysis of SNPs in coding and noncoding and their functional impacts on protein level still remains unknown. Hence, in this study, we carried out a comprehensive in silico analysis of missense that was predicted to have a harmful influence on DBT structure and function. In this study, eight different in silico prediction algorithms; SIFT, PROVEAN, MutPred, SNP&GO, PhD-SNP, PANTHER, I-Mutant 2.0 and MUpo were used for screening nsSNPs in DBT including. Additionally, to understand the effect of mutations in the strength of the interactions that bind protein together the ELASPIC servers were used. Finally, the 3D structure of DBT was formed using Mutation3D and Chimera servers respectively. Our result showed that a total of 15 nsSNPs confirmed by 4 software (R301C, R376H, W84R, S268F, W84C, F276C, H452R, R178H, I355T, V191G, M444T, T174A, I200T, R113H, and R178C) were found damaging and can lead to a shift in DBT gene structure. Moreover, we found 7 nsSNPs located on the 2-oxoacid_dh catalytic domain, 5 nsSNPs on the E_3 binding domain and 3 nsSNPs on the Biotin Domain. So these nsSNPs may alter the putative structure of DBT’s domain. Furthermore, we detected all these nsSNPs are on the core residues of the protein and have the ability to change the stability of the protein. Additionally, we found W84R, S268F, and M444T have high significance, and they affected Leucine, Isoleucine, and Valine, which reduces or disrupt the function of BCKD complex, E2-subunit which the DBT gene encodes. In conclusion, based on our extensive in-silico analysis, we report 15 nsSNPs that have possible association with protein deteriorating and disease-causing abilities. These candidate SNPs can aid in future studies on Maple Syrup Urine Disease type II base in the genetic level.

Keywords: DBT gene, ELASPIC, in silico analysis, UCSF chimer

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: John K. Avor, Choong-Koo Chang

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The transfer of electrical loads at power generation stations from Standby Auxiliary Transformer (SAT) to Unit Auxiliary Transformer (UAT) and vice versa is through a fast bus transfer scheme. Fast bus transfer is a time-critical application where the transfer process depends on various parameters, thus transfer schemes apply advance algorithms to ensure power supply reliability and continuity. In a nuclear power generation station, supply continuity is essential, especially for critical class 1E electrical loads. Bus transfers must, therefore, be executed accurately within 4 to 10 cycles in order to achieve safety system requirements. However, the main problem is that there are instances where transfer schemes scrambled due to inaccurate interpretation of key parameters; and consequently, have failed to transfer several critical loads from UAT to the SAT during main generator trip event. Although several techniques have been adopted to develop robust transfer schemes, a combination of Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Systems (Neuro-Fuzzy) has not been extensively used. In this paper, we apply the concept of Neuro-Fuzzy to determine plant operating mode and dynamic prediction of the appropriate bus transfer algorithm to be selected based on the first cycle of voltage information. The performance of Sequential Fast Transfer and Residual Bus Transfer schemes was evaluated through simulation and integration of the Neuro-Fuzzy system. The objective for adopting Neuro-Fuzzy approach in the bus transfer scheme is to utilize the signal validation capabilities of artificial neural network, specifically the back-propagation algorithm which is very accurate in learning completely new systems. This research presents a combined effect of artificial neural network and fuzzy systems to accurately interpret key bus transfer parameters such as magnitude of the residual voltage, decay time, and the associated phase angle of the residual voltage in order to determine the possibility of high speed bus transfer for a particular bus and the corresponding transfer algorithm. This demonstrates potential for general applicability to improve reliability of the auxiliary power distribution system. The performance of the scheme is implemented on APR1400 nuclear power plant auxiliary system.

Keywords: auxiliary power system, bus transfer scheme, fuzzy logic, neural networks, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Saeed Farivar, Mohsen Kahrom

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The purpose of this work is to develop a physical simulation model for the purpose of studying the effect of various design parameters on the performance of packaged-liquid chillers. This paper presents a steady-state model for predicting the performance of package-Liquid chiller over a wide range of operation condition. The model inputs are inlet conditions; geometry and output of model include system performance variable such as power consumption, coefficient of performance (COP) and states of refrigerant through the refrigeration cycle. A computer model that simulates the steady-state cyclic performance of a vapor compression chiller is developed for the purpose of performing detailed physical design analysis of actual industrial chillers. The model can be used for optimizing design and for detailed energy efficiency analysis of packaged liquid chillers. The simulation model takes into account presence of all chiller components such as compressor, shell-and-tube condenser and evaporator heat exchangers, thermostatic expansion valve and connection pipes and tubing’s by thermo-hydraulic modeling of heat transfer, fluids flow and thermodynamics processes in each one of the mentioned components. To verify the validity of the developed model, a 7.5 USRT packaged-liquid chiller is used and a laboratory test stand for bringing the chiller to its standard steady-state performance condition is build. Experimental results obtained from testing the chiller in various load and temperature conditions is shown to be in good agreement with those obtained from simulating the performance of the chiller using the computer prediction model. An entropy-minimization-based optimization analysis is performed based on the developed analytical performance model of the chiller. The variation of design parameters in construction of shell-and-tube condenser and evaporator heat exchangers are studied using the developed performance and optimization analysis and simulation model and a best-match condition between the physical design and construction of chiller heat exchangers and its compressor is found to exist. It is expected that manufacturers of chillers and research organizations interested in developing energy-efficient design and analysis of compression chillers can take advantage of the presented study and its results.

Keywords: optimization, packaged liquid chiller, performance, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sushovan Ghosh, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosols directly affect Earth’s radiation budget by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. While the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) has decreased over the years, it is still higher than that of greenhouse gas forcing, particularly in the South Asian region, due to high heterogeneity in their chemical properties. Understanding the Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of aerosol composition is critical in improving climate prediction. Studies using satellite data, in-situ and aircraft measurements, and models have investigated the Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol characteristics. In this study, we have taken aerosol data from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) level-2 version 23 aerosol products retrieved at 4.4 km and radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 21 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. MISR aerosol product includes size and shapes segregated aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA). Additionally, 74 aerosol mixtures are included in version 23 data that is used for aerosol speciation. We have seasonally mapped aerosol optical and microphysical properties from MISR for India at quarter degrees resolution. Results show strong Spatio-temporal variability, with a constant higher value of AOD for the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The contribution of small-size particles is higher throughout the year, spatially during winter months. SSA is found to be overestimated where absorbing particles are present. The climatological map of short wave (SW) ARF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) shows a strong cooling except in only a few places (values ranging from +2.5o to -22.5o). Cooling due to aerosols is higher in the absence of clouds. Higher negative values of ARF are found over the IGP region, given the high aerosol concentration above the region. Surface ARF values are everywhere negative for our study domain, with higher values in clear conditions. The results strongly correlate with AOD from MISR and ARF from CERES.

Keywords: aerosol Radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, single scattering albedo (SSA), CERES

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Authors: Yutaro Kyuma, Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

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A commuter bus remains important as a means to network public transportation between railway stations and terminals within cities. In some cases, the boarding time becomes longer, and the boarding rate tends to be higher corresponding to the development of urban cities. The interior environmental quality, e.g. temperature and air quality, in a commuter bus is relatively heterogeneous and complex compared to that of an indoor environment in buildings due to several factors: solar radiative heat – which comes from large-area windows –, inadequate ventilation rate caused by high density of commuters, and metabolic heat generation from travelers themselves. In addition to this, under conditions where many passengers ride in the enclosed space, contact and airborne infectious risk have attracted considerable attention in terms of public health. From this point of view, it is essential to develop the prediction method for assessment of interior environmental quality and infection risk in commuter bus cabins. In this study, we developed a numerical commuter bus model integrated with computer simulated persons to reproduce realistic indoor environment conditions with high occupancy during commuting. Here, computer simulated persons were newly designed considering different types of geometries, e.g., standing position, seating position, and individual differences. Here we conducted coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with radiative heat transfer analysis under steady state condition. Distributions of heterogeneous air flow patterns, temperature, and moisture surrounding the human body under some different ventilation system were analyzed by using CFD technique, and skin surface temperature distributions were analyzed using thermoregulation model that integrated into computer simulated person. Through these analyses, we discussed the interior environmental quality in specific commuter bus cabins. Further, inhaled air quality of each passenger was also analyzed. This study may have possibility to design the ventilation system in bus for improving thermal comfort of occupants.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CFD, computer simulated person, CSP, contaminant, indoor environment, public health, ventilation

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Parul Madan

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Traffic noise pollution has become a challenging problem for all metro cities of India due to rapid urbanization, growing population and rising number of vehicles and transport development. In Delhi the prime source of noise pollution is vehicular traffic. In Delhi it is found that the ambient noise level (Leq) is exceeding the standard permissible value at all the locations. Noise barriers or enclosures are definitely useful in obtaining effective deduction of traffic noise disturbances in urbanized areas. US’s Federal Highway Administration Model (FHWA) and Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CORTN) of UK are used to develop spread sheets for noise prediction. Spread sheets are also developed for evaluating effectiveness of existing boundary walls abutting houses in mitigating noise, redesigning them as noise barriers. Study was also carried out to examine the changes in noise level due to designed noise barrier by using both models FHWA and CORTN respectively. During the collection of various data it is found that receivers are located far away from road at Rithala and Moolchand sites and hence extra barrier height needed to meet prescribed limits was less as seen from calculations and most of the noise diminishes by propagation effect.On the basis of overall study and data analysis, it is concluded that FHWA and CORTN models under estimate noise levels. FHWA model predicted noise levels with an average percentage error of -7.33 and CORTN predicted with an average percentage error of -8.5. It was observed that at all sites noise levels at receivers were exceeding the standard limit of 55 dB. It was seen from calculations that existing walls are reducing noise levels. Average noise reduction due to walls at Rithala was 7.41 dB and at Panchsheel was 7.20 dB and lower amount of noise reduction was observed at Friend colony which was only 5.88. It was observed from analysis that Friends colony sites need much greater height of barrier. This was because of residential buildings abutting the road. At friends colony great amount of traffic was observed since it is national highway. At this site diminishing of noise due to propagation effect was very less.As FHWA and CORTN models were developed in excel programme, it eliminates laborious calculations of noise. There was no reflection correction in FHWA models as like in CORTN model.

Keywords: IFHWA, CORTN, Noise Sources, Noise Barriers

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Authors: Shreya Goyal

Abstract:

The study aims to build user-friendly software to understand patient arrival patterns and compute the number of potential patients who will visit a particular health facility for a given period by using a machine learning algorithm. The underlying machine learning algorithm used in this study is the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Accurate prediction of patient arrival allows hospitals to operate more effectively, providing timely and efficient care while optimizing resources and improving patient experience. It allows for better allocation of staff, equipment, and other resources. If there's a projected surge in patients, additional staff or resources can be allocated to handle the influx, preventing bottlenecks or delays in care. Understanding patient arrival patterns can also help streamline processes to minimize waiting times for patients and ensure timely access to care for patients in need. Another big advantage of using this software is adhering to strict data protection regulations such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) in the United States as the hospital will not have to share the data with any third party or upload it to the cloud because the software can read data locally from the machine. The data needs to be arranged in. a particular format and the software will be able to read the data and provide meaningful output. Using software that operates locally can facilitate compliance with these regulations by minimizing data exposure. Keeping patient data within the hospital's local systems reduces the risk of unauthorized access or breaches associated with transmitting data over networks or storing it in external servers. This can help maintain the confidentiality and integrity of sensitive patient information. Historical patient data is used in this study. The input variables used to train the model include patient age, time of day, day of the week, seasonal variations, and local events. The algorithm uses a Supervised learning method to optimize the objective function and find the global minima. The algorithm stores the values of the local minima after each iteration and at the end compares all the local minima to find the global minima. The strength of this study is the transfer function used to calculate the number of patients. The model has an output accuracy of >95%. The method proposed in this study could be used for better management planning of personnel and medical resources.

Keywords: machine learning, SVM, HIPAA, data

Procedia PDF Downloads 47