Search results for: variations

Authors: Yushinta Fujaya, Andi Ivo Asphama, Andi Parenrengi, Andi Tenriulo

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Blue Swimming crab (Portunus pelagicus) is an important commercial species throughout the subtropical waters and as such constitutes part of the fisheries resources. Data are lacking on the morphological variations of selected fast-growing crabs reared in a pond. This study aimed to analyze the morphological and molecular character of a selected fast-growing crab reared in ponds in South of Sulawesi. The crab seeds were obtained from local fish-trap and hatchery. A study on the growth was carried out in the population of crabs. The dimensions analyzed were carapace width (CW) measured after 3 months of grow out. Morphological character states were examined based on the pattern of spots on the carapace. Molecular analysis was performed using RAPD (Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA). Genetic distance was analysed using TFPGA (Tools for Population Genetic Analyses) version 1.3. The results showed that there were variations in the growth of crabs. These crabs clustered morphologically into three quite distinct groups. The crab with white spots irregularly spread over its carapace was the largest size while the crab with large white spots scattered over the carapace was the smaller size (3%). The crab with small white spots scattered over the carapace was the smallest size found in this study. Molecular analysis showed that there are morphologically and genetically different between groups of crabs. Genetic distances among crabs ranged from 0.1527 to 0.5856. Thus, this study provides information the use of white spots pattern over carapace as indicators to identify the type of blue swimming crabs.

Keywords: crab, portunus pelagicus, morphology, RAPD, Carapace

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Authors: Y. Hamaizi, H. Triki, A. El-Akrmi

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In this paper, the reflection spectra, group delay and dispersion of a uniform fiber Bragg grating (FBG) are obtained. FBGs with two types of apodized variations of the refractive index were modeled to show how the side-lobes can be suppressed. Apodization techniques are used to get optimized reflection spectra. The simulation is based on solving coupled mode equations together with the transfer matrix method.

Keywords: fiber bragg gratings, coupled-mode theory, reflectivity, apodization

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Authors: Ahmed Hamid Nassr

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The significant of the old stone ages in the Sudan, seems from the longest times and the large differentiation in antiquities, so many Neolithic cemeteries have been discovered in the Sudan, which the studies revealed costumes’ funerary from the Form of grave and the contents has been contrasted in some elements and constant in the others. Many interpretations of the late Neolithic cemeteries tradition written from the earlier studies, most of them focus of the development and change in the burial from society’s development and ideas of afterlife beginnings. Another emphasis undertaken is the relationship between societies cultural aspects and the environmental conditions of the period; it has been considered that it hyper-affected the development of farming in one way or another. The site of Qalaat Shanan noted in earlier 1990 and excavated by the Author from 2011-2013, the site located north of Khartoum about 170 km in Shendi town. Site setting lies amongst a group of Neolithic sites in the Shendi area, it reflected a succession of various Neolithic activities from the early to the late horizons. Excavation revealed many late Neolithic graves, the adult and child graves show large funerary content, different in quality and quantity, which indicates of societies development and related to religion and ideas about the afterlife. This presentation discusses the variations of the Late Neolithic cemeteries in Galaat Shanan site from the grave form, content and differentiation of the sex and age and compared with other late Neolithic discoveries in Sudan and the Nile valley. The study shows many changes in the graves related to the societies changes in late Neolithic in Sudan, climate and economic subsistence's are well reasons, but also the idea change is the main reason for the changes. That is clear from the variations of grave shape and content in age and sex and might be society’s status and levels.

Keywords: Sudan, Shendi town, Qalaat Shanan, late neolithic, cemeteries, funerary, tradition

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Authors: Abdullah Alnutayfat, Alexander Sutin

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One of the most important types of renewable energy resources is wind energy which can be produced by wind turbines. The blades of the wind turbine are exposed to the pressure of the harsh environment, which causes a significant issue for the wind power industry in terms of the maintenance cost and failure of blades. One of the reliable methods for blade inspection is the vibroacoustic structural health monitoring (SHM) method which examines information obtained from the structural vibrations of the blade. However, all vibroacoustic SHM techniques are based on comparing the structural vibration of intact and damaged structures, which places a practical limit on their use. Methods for nonlinear vibroacoustic SHM are more sensitive to damage and cracking and do not need to be compared to data from the intact structure. This paper presents the Vibro-Acoustic Modulation (VAM) method based on the modulation of high-frequency (probe wave) by low-frequency loads (pump wave) produced by the blade rotation. The blade rotation alternates bending stress due to gravity, leading to crack size variations and variations in the blade resonance frequency. This method can be used with the classical SHM vibration method in which the blade is excited by piezoceramic actuator patches bonded to the blade and receives the vibration response from another piezoceramic sensor. The VAM modification of this method analyzes the spectra of the detected signal and their sideband components. We suggest the VAM model as the simple mechanical oscillator, where the parameters of the oscillator (resonance frequency and damping) are varied due to low-frequency blade rotation. This model uses the blade vibration parameters and crack influence on the blade resonance properties from previous research papers to predict the modulation index (MI).

Keywords: wind turbine blades, damaged detection, vibro-acoustic structural health monitoring, vibro-acoustic modulation

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Authors: Abanoub Mikhael, Darryl Hardie, Derek Smith, Helena Petrosova, Robert Ernst, David Goodlett

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Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is a hallmark virulence factor of Gram-negative bacteria. It is a complex, structurally het- erogeneous mixture due to variations in number, type, and position of its simplest units: fatty acids and monosaccharides. Thus, LPS structural characterization by traditional mass spectrometry (MS) methods is challenging. Here, we describe the benefits of field asymmetric ion mobility spectrometry (FAIMS) for analysis of intact R-type lipopolysaccharide complex mixture (lipooligo- saccharide; LOS). Structural characterization was performed using Escherichia coli J5 (Rc mutant) LOS, a TLR4 agonist widely used in glycoconjugate vaccine research. FAIMS gas phase fractionation improved the (S/N) ratio and number of detected LOS species. Additionally, FAIMS allowed the separation of overlapping isobars facilitating their tandem MS characterization and un- equivocal structural assignments. In addition to FAIMS gas phase fractionation benefits, extra sorting of the structurally related LOS molecules was further accomplished using Kendrick mass defect (KMD) plots. Notably, a custom KMD base unit of [Na-H] created a highly organized KMD plot that allowed identification of interesting and novel structural differences across the different LOS ion families, i.e., ions with different acylation degrees, oligosaccharides composition, and chemical modifications. Defining the composition of a single LOS ion by tandem MS along with the organized KMD plot structural network was sufficient to deduce the composition of 181 LOS species out of 321 species present in the mixture. The combination of FAIMS and KMD plots allowed in-depth characterization of the complex LOS mixture and uncovered a wealth of novel information about its structural variations.

Keywords: lipopolysaccharide, ion mobility MS, Kendrick mass defect, Tandem mass spectrometry

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Authors: Syed Towseef Ahmad, Fatima Amin, Pritha Acharya, Anil K. Gupta, Pervez Ahmad

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Glaciers being the sentinels of climate change, are the most visible evidence of global warming. Given the unavailability of observed field-based data, this study has focussed on the use of geospatial techniques to obtain information about the glaciers of Pir-Panjal (PPJ) and the Great Himalayan Regions of Jhelum Basin (GHR). These glaciers need to be monitored in line with the variations in climatic conditions because they significantly contribute to various sectors in the region. The main aim of this study is to map the glaciers in the two adjacent regions (PPJ and GHR) in the north-western Himalayas with different topographies and compare the changes in various glacial attributes during two different time periods (1990-2020). During the last three decades, both PPJ as well as GHR regions have observed deglaciation of around 36 and 26 percent, respectively. The mean elevation of GHR glaciers has increased from 4312 to 4390 masl, while the same for PPJ glaciers has increased from 4085 to 4124 masl during the observation period. Using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method, mean mass balance of -34.52 and -37.6 cm.w.e was recorded for the glaciers of GHR and PPJ, respectively. The difference in areal and mass loss of glaciers in these regions may be due to (i) the smaller size of PPJ glaciers which are all smaller than 1 km² and are thus more responsive to climate change (ii) Higher mean elevation of GHR glaciers (iii) local variations in climatic variables in these glaciated regions. Time series analysis of climate variables indicates that both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures of Qazigund station (Tmax= 19.2, Tmin= 6.4) are comparatively higher than the Pahalgam station (Tmax= 18.8, Tmin= 3.2). Except for precipitation in Qazigund (Slope= - 0.3 mm a⁻¹), each climatic parameter has shown an increasing trend during these three decades, and with the slope of 0.04 and 0.03°c a⁻¹, the positive trend in Tmin (pahalgam) and Tmax (qazigund) are observed to be statistically significant (p≤0.05).

Keywords: glaciers, climate change, Pir-Panjal, greater Himalayas, mass balance

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Authors: Chloé Kernaléguen, Laura Kundun, Tessie Lery, Ryan Laleg, Zhangyun Tan

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This study explores global disparities in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis incidence among children aged 0-2 years, focusing on the human development index (HDI) as a key determinant. RSV bronchiolitis poses a significant health risk to young children, influenced by factors, including socio-economic conditions captured by the HDI. Through a comprehensive systematic review and dataset selection (Switzerland, Brazil, United States of America), we formulated an HDI-SEIRS numerical model within the SEIRS framework. Results show variations in RSV bronchiolitis dynamics across countries, emphasizing the influence of HDI. Modelling reveals a correlation between higher HDI and increased bronchiolitis spread, notably in the USA and Switzerland. The ratios HDIcountry over HDImax strengthen this association, while climate disparities contribute to variations, especially in colder climates like the USA and Switzerland. The study raises the hypothesis of an indirect link between higher HDI and more frequent bronchiolitis, underlining the need for nuanced understanding. Factors like improved healthcare access, population density, mobility, and social behaviors in higher HDI countries might contribute to unexpected trends. Limitations include dataset quality and restricted RSV bronchiolitis data. Future research should encompass diverse HDI datasets to refine HDI's role in bronchiolitis dynamics. In conclusion, HDI-SEIRS models offer insights into factors influencing RSV bronchiolitis spread. While HDI is a significant indicator, its impact is indirect, necessitating a holistic approach to effective public health policies. This analysis sets the stage for further investigations into multifaceted interactions shaping bronchiolitis dynamics in diverse socio-economic contexts.

Keywords: bronchiolitis propagation, HDI influence, respiratory syncytial virus, SEIRS model

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Authors: Zainab Abbas Soharwardi, Chunli Su, Harold Wilson Tumwitike Mapoma, Syed Zahid Aziz, Mahmut Ince

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This study investigated the spatial variations of groundwater chemistry used by communities in Lahore city with emphasis on arsenic (As) and fluoride (F) levels. A total of 472 tubewell samples were collected from 7 towns and analyzed for physical and chemical parameters, including pH, turbidity, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), total hardness, HCO3, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, SO42-, Cl-, NO3-, NO2-, F- and As. There were significant spatial variations observed for total hardness, TDS, HCO3, NO3 and As. In general, the south-east of the city displayed higher TH and HCO3 while the north-east showed significantly higher As concentrations attributed to the heterogeneity of the aquifer and industrial activities. In most cases, As was higher than WHO limit value. Indiscriminate disposal of domestic and commercial wastewater into River Ravi is the cause of elevated NO3 observed in the north-west compared to other places in the area. Investigation of the groundwater type revealed facies in the order: Ca-Mg-HCO3-SO4 > Mg-Ca-HCO3-SO4 > Ca-Mg-HCO3-SO4-Cl > Mg-Ca-HCO3-SO4 > Ca-HCO3-SO4 > Ca-Mg-SO4-HCO3. The plausible mineralization control mechanism seems to be that of carbonate weathering, although silicate weathering is probable. Moreover, PHREEQC model results showed that the groundwater was under saturated with respect to evaporites (anhydrite, fluorite, gypsum and halite) while generally equilibrium to saturated with respect to aragonite, calcite and dolomite. The Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) showed that pH significantly affected As, F, NO3 and NO2 while HCO3 contributing most to the observed TDS values in Lahore. It is concluded that inherent mineral dissolution/ precipitation, pH, oxic conditions, anthropogenic activities, atmospheric transport/ wet deposition, microbial activities and surface soil characteristics play their significant roles in elevating both As and F in the city's groundwater.

Keywords: Lahore, arsenic, fluoride, groundwater

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Mehedi, Uzair Ansari, Ubaid M. Al-Saggaf, Abdulrahman H. Bajodah

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This paper presents a methodology for balancing a rotary inverted pendulum system using Robust Generalized Dynamic Inversion (RGDI) under influence of parametric variations and external disturbances. In GDI control, dynamic constraints are formulated in the form of asymptotically stable differential equation which encapsulates the control objectives. The constraint differential equations are based on the deviation function of the angular position and its rates from their reference values. The constraint dynamics are inverted using Moore-Penrose Generalized Inverse (MPGI) to realize the control expression. The GDI singularity problem is addressed by augmenting a dynamic scale factor in the interpretation of MPGI which guarantee asymptotically stable position tracking. An additional term based on Sliding Mode Control is appended within GDI control to make it robust against parametric variations, disturbances and tracking performance deterioration due to generalized inversion scaling. The stability of the closed loop system is ensured by using positive definite Lyapunov energy function that guarantees semi-global practically stable position tracking. Numerical simulations are conducted on the dynamic model of rotary inverted pendulum system to analyze the efficiency of proposed RGDI control law. The comparative study is also presented, in which the performance of RGDI control is compared with Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and is verified through experiments. Numerical simulations and real-time experiments demonstrate better tracking performance abilities and robustness features of RGDI control in the presence of parametric uncertainties and disturbances.

Keywords: generalized dynamic inversion, lyapunov stability, rotary inverted pendulum system, sliding mode control

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Authors: Novee Lor C. Leyso, Maylin C. Palatino

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Under-five malnutrition continues to persist in the Philippines, particularly in the island Province of Marinduque, with prevalence of some forms of malnutrition even worsening in recent years. Local spatial cluster detection provides a spatial perspective in understanding this phenomenon as key in analyzing patterns of geographic variation, identification of community-appropriate programs and interventions, and focused targeting on high-risk areas. Using data from a province-wide household-based census conducted in 2014–2016, this study aimed to determine and evaluate spatial clusters of under-five malnutrition, across the province and within each municipality at the individual level using household location. Malnutrition was defined as weight-for-age z-score that fall outside the 2 standard deviations from the median of the WHO reference population. The Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic in binomial model was used to locate clusters with high-risk of malnutrition, while adjusting for age and membership to government conditional cash transfer program as proxy for socio-economic status. One large significant cluster of under-five malnutrition was found southwest of the province, in which living in these areas at least doubles the risk of malnutrition. Additionally, at least one significant cluster were identified within each municipality—mostly located along the coastal areas. All these indicate apparent geographical variations across and within municipalities in the province. There were also similarities and disparities in the patterns of risk of malnutrition in each cluster across municipalities, and even within municipality, suggesting underlying causes at work that warrants further investigation. Therefore, community-appropriate programs and interventions should be identified and should be focused on high-risk areas to maximize limited government resources. Further studies are also recommended to determine factors affecting variations in childhood malnutrition considering the evidence of spatial clustering found in this study.

Keywords: Binomial model, Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic, Philippines, under-five malnutrition

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Authors: Sanskriti Singh, Ankit Tomar

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Banks are the instrument of growth of a country. Banks mobilize the savings of the public in the form of deposits and channelize it as advances for various activities required for the development of society at large. The advance which becomes unpaid for a certain period is called Non Performing Asset of the bank. The study makes an attempt to bring out the magnitude of NPA and its impact on profit, advances. An attempt is also made to bring out the challenges NPA poses to the banks and suggestions to overcome and to manage NPA effectively.

Keywords: India, NPAs, private banks, public banks

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Authors: Farzam Fatolazadeh, Kalifa Goita, Mehdi Eshagh, Shusen Wang

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is a satellite mission with twin satellites for the precise determination of spatial and temporal variations in the Earth’s gravity field. The products of this mission are monthly global gravity models containing the spherical harmonic coefficients and their errors. These GRACE models can be used for estimating terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations across the globe at large scales, thereby offering an opportunity for surface and groundwater storage (GWS) assessments. Yet, the ability of GRACE to monitor changes at smaller scales is too limited for local water management authorities. This is largely due to the low spatial and temporal resolutions of its models (~200,000 km2 and one month, respectively). High-resolution GRACE data products would substantially enrich the information that is needed by local-scale decision-makers while offering the data for the regions that lack adequate in situ monitoring networks, including northern parts of Canada. Such products could eventually be obtained through downscaling. In this study, we extended the spectral combination theory to simultaneously downscale spatiotemporally the 3o spatial coarse resolution of GRACE to 0.25o degrees resolution and monthly coarse resolution to daily resolution. This method combines the monthly gravity field solution of GRACE and daily hydrological model products in the form of both low and high-frequency signals to produce high spatiotemporal resolution TWSA and GWSA products. The main contribution and originality of this study are to comprehensively and simultaneously consider GRACE and hydrological variables and their uncertainties to form the estimator in the spectral domain. Therefore, it is predicted that we reach downscale products with an acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: GRACE satellite, groundwater storage, spectral combination, terrestrial water storage

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Authors: Shanlong Lu, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang

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The Tibetan Plateau has the largest number of inland lakes with the highest elevation on the planet. These massive and large lakes are mostly in natural state and are less affected by human activities. Their shrinking or expansion can truly reflect regional climate and environmental changes and are sensitive indicators of global climate change. However, due to the sparsely populated nature of the plateau and the poor natural conditions, it is difficult to effectively obtain the change data of the lake, which has affected people's understanding of the temporal and spatial processes of lake water changes and their influencing factors. By using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) MOD09Q1 surface reflectance images as basic data, this study produced the 8-day lake water surface data set of the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2012 at 250 m spatial resolution, with a lake water surface extraction method of combined with lake water surface boundary buffer analyzing and lake by lake segmentation threshold determining. Then based on the dataset, the lake water surface variations and their influencing factors were analyzed, by using 4 typical natural geographical zones of Eastern Qinghai and Qilian, Southern Qinghai, Qiangtang, and Southern Tibet, and the watersheds of the top 10 lakes of Qinghai, Siling Co, Namco, Zhari NamCo, Tangra Yumco, Ngoring, UlanUla, Yamdrok Tso, Har and Gyaring as the analysis units. The accuracy analysis indicate that compared with water surface data of the 134 sample lakes extracted from the 30 m Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper ) images, the average overall accuracy of the lake water surface data set is 91.81% with average commission and omission error of 3.26% and 5.38%; the results also show strong linear (R2=0.9991) correlation with the global MODIS water mask dataset with overall accuracy of 86.30%; and the lake area difference between the Second National Lake Survey and this study is only 4.74%, respectively. This study provides reliable dataset for the lake change research of the plateau in the recent decade. The change trends and influencing factors analysis indicate that the total water surface area of lakes in the plateau showed overall increases, but only lakes with areas larger than 10 km2 had statistically significant increases. Furthermore, lakes with area larger than 100 km2 experienced an abrupt change in 2005. In addition, the annual average precipitation of Southern Tibet and Southern Qinghai experienced significant increasing and decreasing trends, and corresponding abrupt changes in 2004 and 2006, respectively. The annual average temperature of Southern Tibet and Qiangtang showed a significant increasing trend with an abrupt change in 2004. The major reason for the lake water surface variation in Eastern Qinghai and Qilian, Southern Qinghai and Southern Tibet is the changes of precipitation, and that for Qiangtang is the temperature variations.

Keywords: lake water surface variation, MODIS MOD09Q1, remote sensing, Tibetan Plateau

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Authors: Preethy Mary Donald, Renjith George

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Oral tori are localized non-neoplastic protuberances of maxilla and mandible. Torus palatinus (TP) is found on the midline of the roof of mouth existing as single growth or in clusters. Torus mandibularis(TM) is located on the lingual aspect of the mandible commonly between canine and premolar region. Etiology of their presence was not clear and was found to be multifactorial. Their variations in relation to age, gender, ethnicity and also the characteristics of TP and TM have become the interest of multiple studies. The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of torus palatinus (TP) and torus mandibularis (TM) among patients who have visited outpatient department, Faculty of Dentistry, Melaka Manipal Medical College. 108 patients were examined for the presence of oral tori at the outpatient department, Faculty of Dentistry, Melaka-Manipal Medical College. Factors such as age, gender, ethnicity of the patients and size, shape, location of the oral tori were studied. For TP, Malays (62.96%) have been found to have the highest prevalence than Chinese (43.3%) and Indians (35.71%). For TM, Chinese (7.46%) had predominated compared to Malays (7.41%) and Indians (0%). There is no significant association between occurrence of TP and TM with age, gender and ethnicity. For Torus palatinus, the most common size was Grade 1(1-3mm), most common location was molar region, and the most common shape was spindle. For Torus mandibularis, the most frequent location was canine premolar region and exists in unilateral single or bilateral single fashion. The overall prevalence rates were 47.2% for TP and 6.48% for TM. However, there is no significant association between occurrence of TP and TM with age, gender and ethnicity. The results showed variations in clinical characteristics and support the findings that occurrence of tori is a dynamic phenomenon which is multifactorial owing to the environmental factors such as stress from occlusion and dietary habits. It could be due to the genetic make-up of the individual.

Keywords: torus palatinus, torus mandibularis, age, gender

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Authors: Eirini Konstanta, Cedric Gouedard, Aggeliki Delimitsou, Stefania Patera, Samuel Murray

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Introduction: Quality reference DNA standards (QRS) for molecular testing by next-generation sequencing (NGS) are essential for accurate quantitation of copy number variations (CNV) for germline and variant allelic frequencies (VAF) for somatic analyses. Objectives: Presently, several molecular analytics for oncology patients are reliant upon quantitative metrics. Test validation and standardisation are also reliant upon the availability of surrogate control materials allowing for understanding test LOD (limit of detection), sensitivity, specificity. We have developed a dual calibration platform allowing for QRS pairs to be included in analysed DNA samples, allowing for accurate quantitation of CNV and VAF metrics within and between patient samples. Methods: QRS™ blocks up to 500nt were designed for common NGS panel targets incorporating ≥ 2 identification tags (IDTDNA.com). These were analysed upon spiking into gDNA, somatic, and ctDNA using a proprietary CalSuite™ platform adaptable to common LIMS. Results: We demonstrate QRS™ calibration reproducibility spiked to 5–25% at ± 2.5% in gDNA and ctDNA. Furthermore, we demonstrate CNV and VAF within and between samples (gDNA and ctDNA) with the same reproducibility (± 2.5%) in a clinical sample of lung cancer and HBOC (EGFR and BRCA1, respectively). CNV analytics was performed with similar accuracy using a single pair of QRS calibrators when using multiple single targeted sequencing controls. Conclusion: Dual paired QRS™ calibrators allow for accurate and reproducible quantitative analyses of CNV, VAF, intrinsic sample allele measurement, inter and intra-sample measure not only simplifying NGS analytics but allowing for monitoring clinically relevant biomarker VAF across patient ctDNA samples with improved accuracy.

Keywords: calibrator, CNV, gene copy number, VAF

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

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Authors: Priyanka Dargode, Suhas Gore, Manju Sharma, Arvind Lali

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Anaerobic digestion has been widely used for production of methane from different biowastes. However, the complexity of microbial communities involved in the process is poorly understood. The performance of biogas production process concerning the process productivity is closely coupled to its microbial community structure and syntrophic interactions amongst the community members. The present study aims at understanding taxonomic variations occurring in any starter inoculum when acclimatised to different lignocellulosic biomass (LBM) feedstocks relating to time of digestion. The work underlines use of high throughput Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) for validating the changes in taxonomic patterns of microbial communities. Biomethane Potential (BMP) batches were set up with different pretreated and non-pretreated LBM residues using the same microbial consortium and samples were withdrawn for studying the changes in microbial community in terms of its structure and predominance with respect to changes in metabolic profile of the process. DNA of samples withdrawn at different time intervals with reference to performance changes of the digestion process, was extracted followed by its 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing analysis using Illumina Platform. Biomethane potential and substrate consumption was monitored using Gas Chromatography(GC) and reduction in COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) respectively. Taxonomic analysis by QIIME server data revealed that microbial community structure changes with different substrates as well as at different time intervals. It was observed that biomethane potential of each substrate was relatively similar but, the time required for substrate utilization and its conversion to biomethane was different for different substrates. This could be attributed to the nature of substrate and consequently the discrepancy between the dominance of microbial communities with regards to different substrate and at different phases of anaerobic digestion process. Knowledge of microbial communities involved would allow a rational substrate specific consortium design which will help to reduce consortium adaptation period and enhance the substrate utilisation resulting in improved efficacy of biogas process.

Keywords: amplicon sequencing, biomethane potential, community predominance, taxonomic analysis

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Authors: Eman. K. Ramadan, Abdelgawad. S. El-Tahawy

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of calving season on the production and economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. Our study was performed at dairy production farms in the Alexandria, Behera, and Kafr El-Sheikh provinces of Egypt from summer 2010 to winter 2013. The randomly selected dairy farms had herds consisting of Baladi, Holstein-Friesian, or cross-bred (Baladi × Holstein-Friesian) cows. The data were collected from production records and responses to a structured questionnaire. The average total return differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the different cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average total return was highest for the Holstein-Friesian cows that calved in the winter (29106.42 EGP/cow/year), and it was lowest for Baladi cows that calved in the summer (12489.79 EGP/cow/year). Differences in total returns between the cows that calved in the winter or summer or between the foreign and native breeds, as well as variations in calf prices, might have contributed to the differences in milk yield. The average net profit per cow differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average net profit values for the Baladi cows that calved in the winter or summer were 2413 and 2994.96 EGP/cow/year, respectively, and those for the Holstein-Friesian cows were 10744.17 and 7860.56 EGP/cow/year, respectively, whereas those for the cross-bred cows were 10174.86 and 7571.33 EGP/cow/year, respectively. The variations in net profit might have resulted from variation in the availability or price of feed materials, milk prices, or sales volumes. Our results show that the breed and calving season of dairy cows significantly affected the economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. The cows that calved in the winter produced more milk than those that calved in the summer, which may have been the result of seasonal influences, such as temperature, humidity, management practices, and the type of feed or green fodder available.

Keywords: calving season, economic, production, efficiency, dairy

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Authors: Faris Mohsin Alabeedi

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Pemphigus Vulgaris (PV) is a life-threatening autoimmune blistering disease characterized by the presence of autoantibodies directed against the epidermis's surface proteins. There are two forms of PV, mucocutaneous and mucosal-dominant PV. Disruption of the cell junctions is a hallmark of PV due to the autoantibodies targeting the desmosomal cadherins, desmoglein-3 (Dsg3) and desmoglein-1, leading to acantholysis in the skin and mucous membrane. Although the pathogenesis of PV is known, the detailed molecular events remain not fully understood. Our recent study has shown that both the PV sera and pathogenic anti-Dsg3 antibody AK23 can induce ROS and cause oxidative stress in cultured keratinocytes. In line with our finding, other independent studies also demonstrate oxidative stress in PV. Since Nrf2 plays a crucial role in cellular anti-oxidative stress response, we hypothesize that the expression of Nrf2 may alter in PV. Thus, treatment of cells with PV sera or AK23 may cause changes in Nrf2 expression and distribution. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of AK23 and PV sera on Nrf2 in a normal human keratinocyte cell line, such as NTERT cells. Both a time-course and dose-dependent experiments with AK23, alongside the matched isotype control IgG, were performed in keratinocyte cultures and analysed by immunofluorescence for Nrf2 and Dsg3. Additionally, the same approach was conducted with the sera from PV patients and healthy individuals that served as a control in this study. All the fluorescent images were analysed using ImageJ software. Each experiment was repeated twice. In general, variations were observed throughout this study. In the dose-response experiments, although enhanced Dsg3 expression was consistently detected in AK23 treated cells, the expression of Nrf2 showed no consistent findings between the experiments, although changes in its expression were noticeable in cells treated with AK23. In the time-course study, a trend with induction of Nrf2 over time was shown in control cells treated with mouse isotype IgG. Treatment with AK23 showed a reduction of Nrf2 in a time-dependent manner, especially at the 24-hour time point. However, the earlier time points, such as 2 hours and 6 hours with AK23 treatments, detected somewhat variations. Finally, PV sera caused a decrease of Dsg3, but on the other hand, variations were observed in Nrf2 expression in PV sera treated cells. In general, PV sera seemed to cause a reduction of Nrf2 in the majority of PV sera treated samples. In addition, more pronounced cytoplasmic expression of Nrf2 has been observed in PV sera treated cells than those treated with AK23, suggesting that polyclonal and monoclonal IgG might induce a different effect on Nrf2 expression and distribution. Further experimental studies are crucial to obtain a more coincide global view of Nrf2-mediated gene regulation. In particular, Pemphigus Voulgaris studies assessing how the Nrf2-dependent network changes from a physiological to a pathological condition can provide insight into disease mechanisms and perhaps initiate further treatment approaches.

Keywords: pemphigus vulgaris, monoclonal antibody against desmoglein-3, Nrf2 oxidative stress, keratinocyte cultures

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Authors: Asmamaw Yehun, Tsegaye Gogie, Martin Vermeer, Addisu Hunegnaw

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The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a space-based radio positioning system, which is capable of providing continuous position, velocity, and time information to users anywhere on or near the surface of the Earth. The main objective of this work was to estimate the integrated precipitable water vapour (IPWV) using ground GPS and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Radio Occultation (RO) to study spatial-temporal variability. For LEO-GPS RO, we used Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) datasets. We estimated the daily and monthly mean of IPWV using six selected ground-based GPS stations over a period of range from 2012 to 2016 (i.e. five-years period). The main perspective for selecting the range period from 2012 to 2016 is that, continuous data were available during these periods at all Ethiopian GPS stations. We studied temporal, seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variations of precipitable water vapour using GPS observables extracted from the precise geodetic GAMIT-GLOBK software package. Finally, we determined the cross-correlation of our GPS-derived IPWV values with those of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Interim reanalysis and of the second generation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R) for validation and static comparison. There are higher values of the IPWV range from 30 to 37.5 millimetres (mm) in Gambela and Southern Regions of Ethiopia. Some parts of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions had low IPWV ranges from 8.62 to 15.27 mm. The correlation coefficient between GPS-derived IPWV with ECMWF and GEFS/R exceeds 90%. We conclude that there are highly temporal, seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variations of precipitable water vapour in the study area.

Keywords: GNSS, radio occultation, atmosphere, precipitable water vapour

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Alberto Enrique Molina Lozano, María Teresa Cortés Montañez

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Polyaniline (PANI) photoelectrodes were electrochemically synthesized through electrodeposition employing three techniques: chronoamperometry (CA), cyclic voltammetry (CV), and potential pulse (PP) methods. The substrate used for electrodeposition was a fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) glass with dimensions of 2.5 cm x 1.3 cm. Subsequently, structural and optical characterization was conducted utilizing Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and UV-visible (UV-vis) spectroscopy, respectively. The FTIR analysis revealed variations in the molar ratio of benzenoid to quinonoid rings within the PANI polymer matrix, indicative of differing oxidation states arising from the distinct electropolymerization methodologies employed. In the optical characterization, differences in the energy band gap (Eg) values and positions of the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) were observed, attributable to variations in doping levels and structural irregularities introduced during the electropolymerization procedures. To assess the charge transfer properties of the PANI photoelectrodes, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) experiments were carried out within a 0.1 M sodium sulfate (Na₂SO₄) electrolyte. The results displayed a substantial decrease in charge transfer resistance with the PANI coatings compared to uncoated substrates, with PANI obtained through cyclic voltammetry (CV) presenting the lowest charge transfer resistance, contrasting PANI obtained via chronoamperometry (CA) and potential pulses (PP). Subsequently, the photoactive response of the PANI photoelectrodes was measured through linear sweep voltammetry (LSV) and chronoamperometry. The photoelectrochemical measurements revealed a discernible photoactivity in all PANI-coated electrodes. However, PANI electropolymerized through CV displayed the highest photocurrent. Interestingly, PANI derived from chronoamperometry (CA) exhibited the highest degree of stable photocurrent over an extended temporal interval.

Keywords: PANI, photocurrent, photoresponse, charge separation, recombination

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Authors: Ana Maria Igual-Munoz, Juan Gilabert, Marta Garcia, Alfredo Quijano-Lopez

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Nowadays, several lithium-ion battery technologies are being commercialized. These chemistries present different properties that make them more suitable for different purposes. However, comparative studies showing the advantages and disadvantages of different chemistries are incomplete or scarce. Different non-destructive techniques are currently being employed to detect how ageing affects the active materials of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). For instance, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is one of the most employed ones. This technique allows the user to identify the variations on the different resistances present in LIBs. On the other hand, differential voltage analysis (DVA) has shown to be a powerful technique to detect the processes affecting the different capacities present in LIBs. This technique shows variations in the state of health (SOH) and the capacities for one or both electrodes depending on their chemistry. Finally, incremental capacity analysis (ICA) is a widely known technique for being capable of detecting phase equilibria. It reminds of the commonly used cyclic voltamperometry, as it allows detecting some reactions taking place in the electrodes. In these studies, a set of ageing procedures have been applied to commercial batteries of different chemistries (NCA, NMC, and LFP). Afterwards, results of EIS, DVA, and ICA have been used to correlate them with the processes affecting each cell. Ciclability, overpotential, and temperature cycling studies envisage how the charge-discharge rates, cut-off voltage, and operation temperatures affect each chemistry. These studies will serve battery pack manufacturers, as for common battery users, as they will determine the different conditions affecting cells for each of the chemistry. Taking this into account, each cell could be adjusted to the final purpose of the battery application. Last but not least, all the degradation parameters observed are focused to be integrated into degradation models in the future. This fact will allow the implementation of the widely known digital twins to the degradation in LIBs.

Keywords: lithium ion batteries, non-destructive analysis, different chemistries, ante-mortem studies, ICA, DVA, EIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Luis Alvarado, Victor Poblete, Isaac Gonzalez, Yetzabeth Gonzalez

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In MIREX 2016 (http://www.music-ir.org/mirex), the deep neural network (DNN)-Deep Chroma Extractor, proposed by Korzeniowski and Wiedmer, reached the highest score in an audio chord recognition task. In the present paper, this tool is assessed under acoustic reverberant environments and distinct source-microphone distances. The evaluation dataset comprises The Beatles and Queen datasets. These datasets are sequentially re-recorded with a single microphone in a real reverberant chamber at four reverberation times (0 -anechoic-, 1, 2, and 3 s, approximately), as well as four source-microphone distances (32, 64, 128, and 256 cm). It is expected that the performance of the trained DNN will dramatically decrease under these acoustic conditions with signals degraded by room reverberation and distance to the source. Recently, the effect of the bio-inspired Locally-Normalized Cepstral Coefficients (LNCC), has been assessed in a text independent speaker verification task using speech signals degraded by additive noise at different signal-to-noise ratios with variations of recording distance, and it has also been assessed under reverberant conditions with variations of recording distance. LNCC showed a performance so high as the state-of-the-art Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient filters. Based on these results, this paper proposes a variation of locally-normalized triangular filters called Locally-Normalized Quarter Tone (LNQT) filters. By using the LNQT spectrogram, robustness improvements of the trained Deep Chroma Extractor are expected, compared with classical triangular filters, and thus compensating the music signal degradation improving the accuracy of the chord recognition system.

Keywords: chord recognition, deep neural networks, feature extraction, music information retrieval

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Amr A. El Hanafy, Yasser M. Saad, Saleh A. Alkarim, Hussein A. Almehdar, Elrashdy M. Redwan

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Camels are substantial providers of transport, milk, sport, meat, shelter, fuel, security and capital in many countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. Identification of animal breeds has progressed rapidly during the last decade. Advanced molecular techniques are playing a significant role in breeding or strain protection laws. On the other hand, fingerprinting of some molecular markers related to some productive traits in farm animals represents most important studies to our knowledge, which aim to conserve these local genetic resources, and to the genetic improvement of such local breeds by selective programs depending on gene markers. Milk records were taken two days in each week from female camels of Majahem, Safara, Wathaha, and Hamara breeds, respectively from different private farms in northern Jeddah, Riyadh and Alwagh governorates and average weekly yields were calculated. DNA sequencing for CSN2 gene was used for evaluating the genetic variations and calculating the genetic distance values among four Saudi camel populations which are Hamra(R), Safra(Y), Wadha(W) and Majaheim(M). In addition, this marker was analyzed for reconstructing the Neighbor joining tree among evaluating camel breeds. In respect to milk yield during winter season, result indicated that average weekly milk yield of Safara camel breed (30.05 Kg/week) is significantly (p < 0.05) lower than the other 3 breeds which ranged from 39.68 for Hamara to 42.42 Kg/week for Majahem, while there are not significant differences between these three breeds. The Neighbor Joining analysis that re-constructed based on DNA variations showed that samples are clustered into two unique clades. The first clade includes Y (from Y4 to Y18) and M (from M1, to M9). On the other hand, the second cluster is including all R (from R1 to R6) and W (from W1 to W6). The genetic distance values were equal 0.0068 (between the groups M&Y and R&W) and equal 0 (within each group).

Keywords: milk yield, beta-casein precursor (CSN2), Saudi camel, molecular markers

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: G. Alston Rush, Gus A. Rush III, M. F. Horstemeyer

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This study compares the shell-facemask responses of four commonly used American football helmets, under the National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment (NOCSAE) drop impact test method, to show that the test standard would more accurately simulate in-use conditions by modification to include the facemask. In our study, the need for a more vigorous systematic approach to football helmet testing procedures is emphasized by comparing the Head Injury Criterion (HIC), the Gadd Severity Index (SI), and peak acceleration values for different helmets at different locations on the helmet under modified NOCSAE standard drop tower tests. Drop tests were performed on the Rawlings Quantum Plus, Riddell 360, Schutt Ion 4D, and Xenith X2 helmets at eight impact locations, impact velocities of 5.46 and 4.88 meters per second, and helmet configurations with and without facemasks. Analysis of NOCSAE drop test results reveal significant differences (p < 0.05) for when the facemasks were attached to helmets, as compared to the NOCSAE Standard, without facemask configuration. The boundary conditions of the facemask attachment can have up to a 50% decrease (p < 0.001) in helmet performance with respect to peak acceleration. While generally, all helmets with the facemasks gave greater HIC, SI, and acceleration values than helmets without the facemasks, significant helmet dependent variations were observed across impact locations and impact velocities. The variations between helmet responses could be attributed to the unique design features of each helmet tested, which include different liners, chin strap attachments, and faceguard attachment systems. In summary, these comparative drop test results revealed that the current NOCSAE standard test methods need improvement by attaching the facemasks to helmets during testing. The modified NOCSAE football helmet standard test gives a more accurate representation of a helmet’s performance and its ability to mitigate the on-field impact.

Keywords: football helmet testing, gadd severity index, head injury criterion, mild traumatic brain injury

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Anil Koklu, Amin Mansoorifar, Ali Beskok

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Dielectric spectroscopy (DS) is a noninvasive, label free technique for a long term real-time measurements of the impedance spectra of biological cells. DS enables characterization of cellular dielectric properties such as membrane capacitance and cytoplasmic conductivity. We have developed a lab-on-a-chip device that uses an electro-activated microwells array for loading, DS measurements, and unloading of biological cells. We utilized from dielectrophoresis (DEP) to capture target cells inside the wells and release them after DS measurement. DEP is a label-free technique that exploits differences among dielectric properties of the particles. In detail, DEP is the motion of polarizable particles suspended in an ionic solution and subjected to a spatially non-uniform external electric field. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first microfluidic chip that combines DEP and DS to analyze biological cells using electro-activated wells. Device performance is tested using two different cell lines of prostate cancer cells (RV122, PC-3). Impedance measurements were conducted at 0.2 V in the 10 kHz to 40 MHz range with 6 s time resolution. An equivalent circuit model was developed to extract the cell membrane capacitance and cell cytoplasmic conductivity from the impedance spectra. We report the time course of the variations in dielectric properties of PC-3 and RV122 cells suspended in low conductivity medium (LCB), which enhances dielectrophoretic and impedance responses, and their response to sudden pH change from a pH of 7.3 to a pH of 5.8. It is shown that microfluidic chip allowed online measurements of dielectric properties of prostate cancer cells and the assessment of the cellular level variations under external stimuli such as different buffer conductivity and pH. Based on these data, we intend to deploy the current device for single cell measurements by fabricating separately addressable N × N electrode platforms. Such a device will allow time-dependent dielectric response measurements for individual cells with the ability of selectively releasing them using negative-DEP and pressure driven flow.

Keywords: microfluidic, microfabrication, lab on a chip, AC electrokinetics, dielectric spectroscopy

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Authors: Khadiza Akter, Tammy Greer, Raegan Bishop

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An in-depth study of the psycho-social effects of gynecological health disparities among immigrant women in the USA is the goal of this integrative review paper. Immigrant women frequently encounter unique obstacles that have severe psycho-social repercussions when it comes to receiving high-quality gynecological treatment. The review investigates the interaction of psychological, sociological, and health factors that affect the psycho-social effects that immigrant women experience in recognition of the significance of addressing these imbalances. The difficulties that immigrant women face in providing high-quality gynecological treatment in the USA are examined in this study. These difficulties are caused by a variety of psychological issues, including acculturation stress and stigma, as well as by social problems like prejudice, language hurdles, and cultural norms. Additionally, variations in healthcare access and affordability have a role. This study highlights the particular challenges that immigrant women have in receiving high-quality gynecological treatment in the United States. These difficulties are caused by both social problems like language obstacles, cultural norms, and biases, as well as psychological ones like acculturation stress and stigma. Additionally, variations in gynecological care for immigrant women are greatly influenced by variances in healthcare availability and price. To find pertinent research looking at the psychological effects of gynecological health disparities among immigrant women in the USA, a thorough search of numerous databases was done. Numerous approaches, including mixed, quantitative, and qualitative ones, were used in the studies. The important findings from various investigations were extracted and synthesized after they underwent a careful evaluation. In order to lessen these discrepancies and enhance the overall well-being of immigrant women, healthcare professionals, legislators, and researchers must collaborate to create specialized treatments, regulations, and health system reforms.

Keywords: cultural barriers, gynecological health disparities, health care access, immigrant women, mental health, psycho-social consequences, social stigma

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: E. T. Carvalho Filho, J. T. N. Medeiros, L. G. Martinez

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Residual stresses are self equilibrating in a rigid body that acts on the microstructure of the material without application of an external load. They are elastic stresses and can be induced by mechanical, thermal and chemical processes causing a deformation gradient in the crystal lattice favoring premature failure in mechanicals components. The search for measurements with good reliability has been of great importance for the manufacturing industries. Several methods are able to quantify these stresses according to physical principles and the response of the mechanical behavior of the material. The diffraction X-ray technique is one of the most sensitive techniques for small variations of the crystalline lattice since the X-ray beam interacts with the interplanar distance. Being very sensitive technique is also susceptible to variations in measurements requiring a study of the factors that influence the final result of the measurement. Instrumental, operational factors, form deviations of the samples and geometry of analyzes are some variables that need to be considered and analyzed in order for the true measurement. The aim of this work is to analyze the sources of errors inherent to the residual stress measurement process by X-ray diffraction technique making an interlaboratory comparison to verify the reproducibility of the measurements. In this work, two specimens were machined, differing from each other by the surface finishing: grinding and polishing. Additionally, iron powder with particle size less than 45 µm was selected in order to be a reference (as recommended by ASTM E915 standard) for the tests. To verify the deviations caused by the equipment, those specimens were positioned and with the same analysis condition, seven measurements were carried out at 11Ψ tilts. To verify sample positioning errors, seven measurements were performed by positioning the sample at each measurement. To check geometry errors, measurements were repeated for the geometry and Bragg Brentano parallel beams. In order to verify the reproducibility of the method, the measurements were performed in two different laboratories and equipments. The results were statistically worked out and the quantification of the errors.

Keywords: residual stress, x-ray diffraction, repeatability, reproducibility, error analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Louis Ngai Yuen Wong, Varun Maruvanchery

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The Bukit Timah Granite, which is a major rock formation in Singapore, encompasses different rock types such as granite, adamellite, and granodiorite with various hybrid rocks. The present study focuses on the Central Singapore Granite found in the Mandai area. Even within this small aerial extent, lithological variations with respect to the composition, texture as well as the grain size have been recognized in this igneous body. Over the years, the research effort on the Bukit Timah Granite has been focused on achieving a better understanding of its engineering properties in association with civil engineering projects. To our best understanding, a few types of research attempted to systematically investigate the influence of grain size, mineral composition, texture etc. on the strength of Bukit Timah Granite rocks in a comprehensive manner. In typical local industry practices, the different lithological varieties are not differentiated, but all are grouped under Bukit Timah Granite during core logging and the subsequent determination of engineering properties. To address such a major gap in the local engineering geological practice, a preliminary study is conducted on the variations of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) in seven distinctly different lithological varieties found in the Bukit Timah Granite. Other physical properties including Young’s modulus, P-wave velocity and dry density determined from laboratory testing will also be discussed. The study is supplemented by a petrographical thin section examination. In addition, the specimen failure mode is classified and further correlated with the lithological varieties by carefully observing the details of crack initiation, propagation and coalescence processes in the specimens undergoing loading tests using a high-speed camera. The outcome of this research, which is the first of its type in Singapore, will have a direct implication on the sampling and design practices in the field of civil engineering and particularly underground space development in Singapore.

Keywords: Bukit Timah Granite, lithological variety, thin section study, high speed video, failure mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

Procedia PDF Downloads 201