Search results for: urban growth model

Authors: Thendo Mafame

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There is a need for academic research to focus on solving or contributing to solving real-world societal problems. Transdisciplinary research (TDR) provides a way to produce functional and applicable research findings, which can be used to advance developmental causes. This TDR study explores ways in which South Africa’s spatial divide, entrenched through decades of discriminatory planning policies, can be restructured to bring about equitable access to places of employment, business, leisure, and service for previously marginalised South Africans. It does by exploring the potential of the transit-orientated development (TOD) model to restructure and revitalise urban spaces in a collaborative model. The study focuses, through a case study, on the Du Toit station precinct in the town of Stellenbosch, on the peri-urban edge of the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The TOD model is increasingly viewed as an effective strategy for creating sustainable urban redevelopment initiatives, and it has been deployed successfully in other parts of the world. The model, which emphasises development density, diversity of land-use and infrastructure and transformative design, is customisable to a variety of country contexts. This study made use of case study approach with mixed methods to collect and analyse data. Various research methods used include the above-mentioned focus group discussions and interviews, as well as observation, transect walks This research contributes to the professional development of TDR studies that are focused on urbanisation issues.

Keywords: case study, integrated urban development, land-use, stakeholder collaboration, transit-oriented development, transdisciplinary research

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Taehyun Kim, Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim

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Since the rapid economic development, Korea has recently entered a period of low growth due to population decline and aging. Due to the urbanization around the metropolitan area and the hollowing of local cities, the ecological capacity of a city is decreasing while ecological footprints are increasing, requiring a compact space plan for maintaining urban functions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between urban spatial structure and residents' ecological footprints for sustainable spatial planning. To do this, we try to analyze the relationship between intra-urban spatial structure, such as net/gross density and service accessibility, and resident ecological footprints of food, housing, transportation, goods and services through survey and structural equation modeling. The results of the study will be useful in establishing an implementation plan for sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) in the future.

Keywords: ecological footprint, structural equation modeling, survey, sustainability, urban spatial structure

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Authors: Manjie Li, Xiangju Cheng, Yongcan Chen

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With rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, water environmental deterioration is widespread in majority of urban rivers, which seriously affects city image and life satisfaction of residents. As an emergency measure to improve water quality, clean water diversion is introduced for water environmental management. Lubao River and Southwest River, two urban rivers in typical plain tidal river network, are identified as technically and economically feasible for the application of clean water diversion. One-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model is developed to simulate temporal and spatial variations of water level and water quality, with satisfactory accuracy. The mathematical model after calibration is applied to investigate hydrodynamic and water quality variations in rivers as well as determine the optimum operation scheme of water diversion. Assessment system is developed for evaluation of positive and negative effects of water diversion, demonstrating the effectiveness of clean water diversion and the necessity of pollution reduction.

Keywords: assessment system, clean water diversion, hydrodynamic-water quality model, tidal river network, urban rivers, water environment improvement

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Authors: Xiyue Wang, Shaoning Yan

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Cities in China today is faced with an increasingly serious river ecological crisis accompanying with the development of urbanization: waterlogging on account of the fragmented urban natural hydrological system; the limited ecological function of the hydrological system caused by a destruction of water system and waterfront ecological environment. Additionally, the eco-hydrological processes of rivers are affected by various environmental factors, which are more complex in the context of urban environment. Therefore, efficient hydrological monitoring and analysis tools, accurate and visual hydrological and hydraulic models are becoming more important basis for decision-makers and an important way for landscape architects to solve urban hydrological problems, formulating sustainable and forward-looking schemes. The study mainly introduces the river and flood analysis model based on the platform of Autodesk Civil 3D. Taking the Luanhe River in Qian'an City of Hebei Province as an example, the 3D models of the landform, river, embankment, shoal, pond, underground stream and other land features were initially built, with which the water transfer simulation analysis, river floodplain analysis, and river ecology analysis were carried out, ultimately the real-time visualized simulation and analysis of rivers in various hypothetical scenarios were realized. Through the establishment of digital hydrological and hydraulic model, the hydraulic data can be accurately and intuitively simulated, which provides basis for rational water system and benign urban ecological system design. Though, the hydrological and hydraulic model based on Autodesk Civil3D own its boundedness: the interaction between the model and other data and software is unfavorable; the huge amount of 3D data and the lack of basic data restrict the accuracy and application range. The hydrological and hydraulic model based on Autodesk Civil3D platform provides more possibility to access convenient and intelligent tool for urban planning and monitoring, a solid basis for further urban research and design.

Keywords: visualization, hydrological and hydraulic model, Autodesk Civil 3D, urban river

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Authors: Fakhrul Anwar Zainol, Wan Norhayate Wan Daud, Zulhamri Abdullah, Mohd Rafi Yaacob

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Malaysia has made great strides in eradicating poverty. Based on the latest figures of the 9th Malaysian Plan Mid-term review, the overall hardcore poverty percentage is down to 0.7%, and only 3.6% of the Malaysian population is living below the overall poverty line. While in the past significant efforts had been taken by the government through various developmental project to alleviate poverty in rural area had proven successful. Today, urban poverty in Malaysia is an increasingly visible phenomenon due to rural-urban migration and the natural population growth in urban areas. Given the changing dimensions and emerging new forms of poverty as a result of unwanted effects of development there is a dire need to re-examine and re-visit urban poverty in Malaysia. Based on the leaders’ perceptions, this study affirmed that social entrepreneurship organizations in Malaysia have try to overcome the urban poverty through social entrepreneurship. The new framework has been developed from the results of this study. It shows that social entrepreneurship contributed to the organizational effectiveness. This result indicates that it is important to have social entrepreneurship in order to increase the socio economy and achieve the organization’s mission. Therefore, this study has proven that social entrepreneurship is beneficial to the Malaysian.

Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship, Organizational Effectiveness, Urban Poverty, Malaysia.

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Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi

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According to the increasing travel demand in cities, bridges and tunnels are viewed as one of the fundamental components of cities transportation systems. Normally, due to geometric constraints forms in the tunnels, the considered speed in the tunnels is lower than the speed in connected highways. Therefore, drivers tend to reduce the speed near the entrance of the tunnels. In this paper, the effect of speed reduction on accident happened in the entrance of the tunnels has been discussed. The relation between accidents frequency and the parameters of speed, traffic volume and time of the accident in the mentioned tunnel has been analyzed and the mathematical model has been proposed.

Keywords: urban highway, accident, tunnel, mathematical model

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Authors: Amir Hossein Ashari, Sedighe Erfan Manesh

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When investigating Iranian traditional and historical urban development, such as that seen in Shiraz, our attention is drawn to mosques as a focal point. Vakil Mosque in Shiraz is completely consistent, coordinated and integrated with the Bazaar, square and school. This is a significant example of traditional urban development. The position of the mosque in the most important urban joint near bazaar in a way that it is considered part of the bazaar structure are factors that have given it social, political, and economic roles in addition to the original religious role. These are among characteristics of sustainable development. The mosque has had an important effect in formation of the city because it is connected to main gates. In terms of access, the mosque has different main and peripheral access paths from different parts of the city. The courtyard of the mosque was located next to the main elements of the city so that it was considered as an urban open space, which made it a more active and more dynamic place. This study is carried out via library and field research with the purpose of finding strategies for taking advantage of useful features of the mosque in traditional urban development. These features include its role as a gathering center for people and city in sustainable urban development. Mosque can be used as a center for enhancing social interactions and creating a sense of association that leads to sustainable social space. These can act as a model which leads us to sustainable cities in terms of social and economic factors.

Keywords: mosque, traditional urban development, sustainable social space, Vakil Mosque, Shiraz

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Authors: Mina Bakhshi

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Nowadays, issues such as various types of pollution, problems caused by energy consumption, population density, social activities, difficulties related to urban access and communication, transportation, etc., have challenged different communities and become the subject of their discussions. In response to this issue, theories and movements have emerged to achieve sustainable urban development, including the smart growth movement. This theory emphasizes that the physical growth and expansion of cities should serve the community and the environment, aiming to improve the quality of life and promote the use of renewable energy resources for sustainability. The smart city network system not only improves the economic situation of the society and benefits the environment but also enables the achievement of important issues such as sustainable development, continuity, and diversity of energy resources. In this article, we investigate the impact of using renewable energy sources on optimizing energy consumption and reducing pollution caused by fossil fuels with the help of smart city development. The aim of this article is to introduce renewable energy sources and their utilization as a solution to address the energy crisis and reduce environmental pollution. This research has attempted to introduce the smart city and the use of renewable energy sources as a method for solving many urban problems and achieving efficient urban control and management.

Keywords: smart city, renewable energy sources, sustainable development, sustainable city

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Authors: Chin Ku, Han liang Lin

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The purpose of this study is to visualize how the rule related to urban design influences the building form by 3D modeling software CityEngine. In order to make the goal of urban design clearly connect to urban form, urban planner or designer should understand how the rule affects the form, especially the building form. In Taiwan, the rule pertained to urban design includes traditional zoning, urban design review and building codes. However, zoning cannot precisely expect the outcome of building form and lack of thinking about public realm and 3D form. In addition to that, urban design review is based on case by case, do not have a comprehensive regulation plan and the building code is just for general regulation. Therefore, rule cannot make the urban form reach the vision or goal of the urban design. Consequently, another kind of zoning called Form-based code (FBC) has arisen. This study uses the component of FBC which pertained to urban fabric such as street width, block and plot size, etc., to be the variants of building form, and find out the relationship between the rule and building form. There are three stages of this research, it will start from a field survey of Taichung City in Taiwan to induce the rule-building form relationship by using cluster analysis and descriptive Statistics. Second, visualize the relationship through the parameterized and codified process in CityEngine which is the procedural modeling, and can analyze, monitor and visualize the 3D world. Last, compare the CityEngine result with real world to examine how extent do this model represent the real world appearance.

Keywords: 3D visualization, CityEngine, form-based code, urban form

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Authors: Marinko Skare, Malgorzata Porada Rochon

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This paper study the link between energy justice and economic growth. The link between energy justice and growth has not been extensively studied. Here we study the impact and importance of energy justice, as a part of the energy transition process, on economic growth. Our study shows energy justice growth is an important determinant of economic growth and development that should be addressed at the industry and economic levels. We use panel data modeling and causality testing to research the empirical link between energy justice and economic growth. Industry and economy-level policies designed to support energy justice initiatives are beneficial to economic growth. Energy justice is a necessary condition for green growth and sustainability targets.

Keywords: energy justice, economic growth, panel data, energy transition

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Authors: Falguni Vasavada, Pradyumna Malladi

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The research focuses on studying the ecosystem of the youth using Ogilvy's 3E model, Ethnography and Thematic Analysis. It has been found that urban Indian youth today is an honest generation, hungry for success, living life by the moment, fiercely independent, are open about sex, sexuality and embrace individual differences. Technology and social media dominate their life. However, they are also phobic about commitments, often drifting along life and engage in unsubstantiated brave-talk.

Keywords: ethnography, youth, culture, track, buyer behavior

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Authors: Arati Siddharth Petkar, Joel E. M. Macwan

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Preferences for residential location are of a diverse nature. Primarily they are based on the socio-economic, socio-cultural, socio-demographic characteristics of the household. It also depends on character, and the growth potential of different areas in a city. In the present study, various criteria affecting residential location preferences from the Urban Dwellers’ perspective have been analyzed. The household survey has been conducted in two parts: Existing Buyers’ survey and Future Buyers’ survey. The analysis reveals that workplace location is the most governing criterion in deciding residential location from the majority of the urban dwellers perspective. For analyzing the importance of varied criteria, Analytical Hierarchy Process approach has been explored. The suggested approach will be helpful for urban planners, decision makers and developers, while designating a new residential area or redeveloping an existing one.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process (AHP), household, preferences, residential location preferences, residential land use, urban dwellers

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Authors: Margaret S. Gumisiriza, Ernest. R. Mbega, Patrick Ndakidemi, Businge K. Edward

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The purpose of the paper was to assess existing literature regarding hydroponics in both the developing and developed countries. Furthermore, relate it to the context of African countries, how they can implement it and benefit from it in the face of climate change, high population growth rates, and reduced food production. Agriculture remains the major economic activity for a number of African countries. It is the source of income for most peasants, and still contributes to the Gross Domestic Product in most of these African countries. Unfortunately, climate change coupled with the increasing rates of population growth; rural-urban migration; and urbanization have led to food insecurity due to a reduction of available land for agriculture. This has further intensified the food security dilemma in Africa, especially in urban areas, where land is already limited. Considering the aforementioned state of affairs, there is an increasing demand for interventions that can help farmers in Africa to cope with climate change and increase food production. This review explores hydroponic farming and how it can be used as a climate-smart farming system in Africa’s rural and urban areas. Specifically, the review focuses on hydroponics, requirements for hydroponic farming and the state of hydroponic farming in LDCs and Developed countries (DCs). From the review, it was observed that African countries especially those that receive a lot of sunlight would highly benefit from the solar-powered hydroponic farming systems. Further, still, this farming system will help African countries cope with the challenges of high population pressure in urban areas and climate change as it qualifies to be an urban farming system.

Keywords: Africa, climate-smart agriculture, solar-powered-hydroponics, urban-farming

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Authors: Hecson Christian, Joel Macwan

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Landfill site selection in an urban area is a critical issue in the planning process. With the growth of the urbanization, it has a mammoth impact on the economy, ecology, and environmental health of the region. Outsized amount of wastes are produced and the problem gets soared every day. Hence, selection of ideal site for sanitary landfill is a challenge for urban planners and solid waste managers. Disposal site is a function of many parameters. Among all, Geotechnical parameters are very vital as the same is related to surrounding open land. Moreover, the accessible safe and acceptable land is also scarce. Therefore, in this paper geotechnical parameters are used to develop a GIS model to identify an ideal location for landfill purpose. Metropolitan city of Surat is highly populated and fastest growing urban area in India. The research objectives are to conduct field experiments to collect data and to transfer the facts in GIS platform to evolve a model, to find ideal location. Planners’ preferences were obtained to use analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to find weights of each parameter. Integration of GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques are applied to improve decision-making. It augments an environment for transformation and combination of geographical data and planners’ preferences. GIS performs deterministic overlay and buffer operations. MCDA methods evaluate alternatives based on the decision makers’ subjective values and priorities. Research results have shown many alternative locations. Economic analysis of selected site from actual operations point of view is not included in this research.

Keywords: GIS, AHP, MCDA, Geo-technical

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Authors: Ansari Mohammad Reza, Hiroko Ono

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In this study, we investigated how much of the urban facilities are fairly distributing in the city of Kabul based on the factor of population. To find the answer to this question we simulated a fair model for the distribution of investigated facilities in the city which is proposed based on the consideration of two factors; the number of users for each facility and the average distance of reach of each facility. Then the model was evaluated to make sure about its efficiency. And finally, the two—the existing pattern and the simulation model—were compared to find the degree of bias in the existing pattern of distribution of facilities in the city. The result of the study clearly clarified that the facilities are not fairly distributed in Kabul city based on the factor of population. Our analysis also revealed that the education services and the parks are the most and the worst fair distributed facilities in this regard.

Keywords: Afghanistan, ArcGIS Software, Kabul City, fair distribution, urban facilities

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Authors: Maymona Al-Husari, Craig Murdoch, Steven Webb

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Some tumors are known to exhibit an extracellular pH that is more acidic than the intracellular, creating a 'reversed pH gradient' across the cell membrane and this has been shown to affect their invasive and metastatic potential. Tumour hypoxia also plays an important role in tumour development and has been directly linked to both tumour morphology and aggressiveness. In this paper, we present a hybrid mathematical model of intracellular pH regulation that examines the effect of oxygen and pH on tumour growth and morphology. In particular, we investigate the impact of pH regulatory mechanisms on the cellular pH gradient and tumour morphology. Analysis of the model shows that: low activity of the Na+/H+ exchanger or a high rate of anaerobic glycolysis can give rise to a 'fingering' tumour morphology; and a high activity of the lactate/H+ symporter can result in a reversed transmembrane pH gradient across a large portion of the tumour mass. Also, the reversed pH gradient is spatially heterogenous within the tumour, with a normal pH gradient observed within an intermediate growth layer, that is the layer between the proliferative inner and outermost layer of the tumour.

Keywords: acidic pH, cellular automaton, ebola, tumour growth

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Authors: Pukhtoon Yar

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Peshawar City is experiencing a rapid spatial urban growth primarily as a result of high rate of urbanization along with economic development. This paper was designed to understand the impacts of urbanization on agriculture land use change by particularly focusing on land use change trajectories from the past (1991-2014). We used Landsat imageries (30 meters) for1991along with Spot images (2.5 meters) for year 2014. . The ground truthing of the satellite data was performed by collecting information from Peshawar Development Authority, revenue department, real estate agents and interviews with the officials of city administration. The temporal satellite images were processed by applying supervised maximum likelihood classification technique in ArcGIS 9.3. The procedure resulted into five main classes of land use i.e. built-up area, farmland, barren land, cultivable-wasteland and water bodies. The analysis revealed that, in Peshawar City the built-up environment has been doubled from 8.1 percent in 1991 to over 18.2 percent in 2014 by predominantly encroaching land producing food. Furthermore, the CA-Markov Model predicted that the area under impervious surfaces would continue to flourish during the next three decades. This rapid increase in built-up area is accredited to the lack of proper land use planning and management, which has caused chaotic urban sprawl with detrimental social and environmental consequences.

Keywords: Urban Expansion, Land use, GIS, Remote Sensing, Markov Model, Peshawar City

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Authors: Luis Guilherme Resende Santos, Ido Nevat, Leslie Norford

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The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is characterized by increased air temperatures in urban areas compared to undeveloped rural surrounding environments. With urbanization and densification, the intensity of UHI increases, bringing negative impacts on livability, health and economy. In order to reduce those effects, it is required to take into consideration design factors when planning future developments. Given design constraints such as population size and availability of area for development, non-trivial decisions regarding the buildings’ dimensions and their spatial distribution are required. We develop a framework for optimization of urban design in order to jointly minimize UHI intensity and buildings’ energy consumption. First, the design constraints are defined according to spatial and population limits in order to establish realistic boundaries that would be applicable in real life decisions. Second, the tools Urban Weather Generator (UWG) and EnergyPlus are used to generate outputs of UHI intensity and total buildings’ energy consumption, respectively. Those outputs are changed based on a set of variable inputs related to urban morphology aspects, such as building height, urban canyon width and population density. Lastly, an optimization problem is cast where the utility function quantifies the performance of each design candidate (e.g. minimizing a linear combination of UHI and energy consumption), and a set of constraints to be met is set. Solving this optimization problem is difficult, since there is no simple analytic form which represents the UWG and EnergyPlus models. We therefore cannot use any direct optimization techniques, but instead, develop an indirect “black box” optimization algorithm. To this end we develop a solution that is based on stochastic optimization method, known as the Cross Entropy method (CEM). The CEM translates the deterministic optimization problem into an associated stochastic optimization problem which is simple to solve analytically. We illustrate our model on a typical residential area in Singapore. Due to fast growth in population and built area and land availability generated by land reclamation, urban planning decisions are of the most importance for the country. Furthermore, the hot and humid climate in the country raises the concern for the impact of UHI. The problem presented is highly relevant to early urban design stages and the objective of such framework is to guide decision makers and assist them to include and evaluate urban microclimate and energy aspects in the process of urban planning.

Keywords: building energy consumption, stochastic optimization, urban design, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, Eugine Iheanacho

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The paper set out to assess the sustainability of debt in the Nigerian economy. Precisely, it sought to determine the level of debt sustainability and its impact on the growth of the economy; whether internationalization of capital market has positively influenced debt sustainability’s impact on economic growth; and to ascertain the direction of causality between external debt sustainability and the growth of GDP. In the light of these objectives, ratio analysis was employed for the determination of debt sustainability. Our findings revealed that the periods 1986 – 1994 and 1999 – 2004 were periods of severe unsustainable borrowing. The unit root test showed that the variables of the growth model were integrated of order one, I(1) and the cointegration test provided evidence for long run stability. Considering the dawn of internationalization of capital market, the researcher employed the structural break approach using Chow Breakpoint test on the vector error correction model (VECM). The result of VECM showed that debt sustainability, measured by debt to GDP ratio exerts negative and significant impact on the growth of the economy while debt burden measured by debt-export ratio and debt service export ratio are negative though insignificant on the growth of GDP. The Cho test result indicated that internationalization of capital market has no significant effect on the debt overhang impact on the growth of the Economy. The granger causality test indicates a feedback effect from economic growth to debt sustainability growth indicators. On the bases of these findings, the researchers made some necessary recommendations which if followed religiously will go a long way to ameliorating debt burdens and engendering economic growth.

Keywords: debt sustainability, internalization, capital market, cointegration, chow test

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Authors: Abhishek Saha, Serene Tay, Gerard Pijcke

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The availability of high-resolution topography and rainfall information in urban areas has made it necessary to revise modeling approaches used for simulating flood risk assessments. Lidar derived elevation models that have 1m or lower resolutions are becoming widely accessible. The classical approaches of 1D-2D flow models where channel flow is simulated and coupled with a coarse resolution 2D overland flow models may not fully utilize the information provided by high-resolution data. In this context, a study was undertaken to compare three different modeling approaches to simulate flooding in an urban area. The first model used is the base model used is Sobek, which uses 1D model formulation together with hydrologic boundary conditions and couples with an overland flow model in 2D. The second model uses a full 2D model for the entire area with shallow water equations at the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM). These models are compared against another shallow water equation solver in 2D, which uses a subgrid method for grid refinement. These models are simulated for different horizontal resolutions of DEM varying between 1m to 5m. The results show a significant difference in inundation extents and water levels for different DEMs. They are also sensitive to the different numerical models with the same physical parameters, such as friction. The study shows the importance of having reliable field observations of inundation extents and levels before a choice of model and data can be made for spatial flood risk assessments.

Keywords: flooding, DEM, shallow water equations, subgrid

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Authors: Gisele Mah, Paul Saah

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The rising rates of inflation are hindering economic growth in developing nations. Hence, this study investigated the effects of inflation rates on the economic growth of South Africa using the secondary time series data from 1987 to 2022. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the long run relationship between inflation and economic growth, and also to determine the causality direction between these two variables. The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration to investigate whether there is a long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The Pairwise Granger causality approach was employed to determine the second objective, which is the direction of causality. The study discovered only one co-integration relationship between our variables and it was between inflation and economic growth. The results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between inflation and economic growth. There appeared to be a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and exchange rate. The interest rates have shown to be negative and insignificant in explaining economic growth. The study also established that inflation does Granger cause economic growth which is given as GDP. Similarly, the study discovered that inflation Granger causes exchange rates. Therefore, the study recommends that inflation should be decreased in South Africa, in order for economic growth to increase. Contrary, this study recommends that South Africa should increase its exchange rates, in order for economic growth to also increase.

Keywords: inflation rate, economic growth, South Africa, autoregressive distributed lag model

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Authors: Mauricio Molina

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The present research project aims to determine whether it is possible to have a statement, allowing you to have an economic model to establish clearly if the population that uses the rail system underground in the city of Medellin with an increase in productivity total factor. The present project aims to concentrate on the surroundings to the system underground for a period of 60 months in the city of Medellin. According to the review bibliographic is can establish that in it most of them cases, the cities that have with systems of transport rail are more productive. And should to its time present is an analysis that may lead to determine if effectively the use of the transport railway improves the productivity of a city and its inhabitants.

Keywords: economic growth, mobility urban, total factor productivity, rail transport

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Authors: Fathia Elmenghawi

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The transformation of cities under colonial rule has received a great deal of scholarly work. Colonizers interpret their colonies differently and many urban and planning approaches can be traced. This paper focuses on the colonial approaches of urban expansion in the city of Tripoli, Libya during two colonial periods, the late Ottomans and the Italians, from the 1830s to 1940s. Both had perceived their approaches to the city’s expansion as means of practicing dominance over the colonized under the disguise of facilitating the process of modernization of the city. This research uses a historical method that based on archival documents such as maps, photos, and publications to uncover the planning practices followed by the two colonizers. The findings indicate that despite the similar intentions that both colonizers had when they expanded the city, one striking difference was distinguished, which is how the Ottomans and the Italians planned to treat the Walled City as, respectively, either a context for expansion or as merely remains to marginalize.

Keywords: colonial urban planning, Italian colonization, Ottoman provinces, walled city

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Authors: Sandra Rafael, Bruno Vicente, Vera Rodrigues, Carlos Borrego, Myriam Lopes

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Air pollution is an environmental and social issue at different spatial scales, especially in a climate change context, with an expected decrease of air quality. Air pollution is a combination of high emissions and unfavourable weather conditions, where wind speed and wind direction play a key role. The urban design (location and structure of buildings and trees) can both promote the air pollutants dispersion as well as promote their retention within the urban area. Today, most of the urban areas are applying measures to adapt to future extreme climatic events. Most of these measures are grounded on nature-based solutions, namely green roofs and green areas. In this sense, studies are required to evaluate how the implementation of these actions will influence the wind flow within the urban area and, consequently, how this will influence air pollutants' dispersion. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of a set of urban morphologies in the wind conditions and in the dispersion of air pollutants, in a built-up area in Portugal. For that, two pollutants were analysed (NOx and PM10) and four scenarios were developed: i) a baseline scenario, which characterizes the current status of the study area, ii) an urban green scenario, which implies the implementation of a green area inside the domain, iii) a green roof scenario, which consists in the implementation of green roofs in a specific area of the domain; iv) a 'grey' scenario, which consists in a scenario with absence of vegetation. For that, two models were used, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the CFD model VADIS (pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere under variable wind conditions). The WRF model was used to initialize the CFD model, while the last was used to perform the set of numerical simulations, on an hourly basis. The implementation of the green urban area promoted a reduction of air pollutants' concentrations, 16% on average, related to the increase in the wind flow, which promotes air pollutants dispersion; while the application of green roofs showed an increase of concentrations (reaching 60% during specific time periods). Overall the results showed that a strategic placement of vegetation in cities has the potential to make an important contribution to increase air pollutants dispersion and so promote the improvement of air quality and sustainability of urban environments.

Keywords: air pollutants dispersion, wind conditions, urban morphologies, road traffic emissions

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Authors: Henrique Alpalhão

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This paper attempts to model the widely studied relationship between a country's economic growth and its level of democracy, with an emphasis on possible non-linearities. We adopt the concept of 'political capital' as a measure of democracy, which is extremely uncommon in the literature and brings considerable advantages both in terms of dynamic considerations and plausibility. While the literature is not consensual on this matter, we obtain, via panel Arellano-Bond regression analysis on a database of more than 60 countries over 50 years, significant and robust results that indicate that the impact of democratization on economic growth varies according to the stage of democratic development each country is in.

Keywords: democracy, economic growth, political capital, political economy

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Authors: Selatnia Khaled Grine Ikram

Abstract:

The city of Biskra, like other Algerian cities, knows of urban traffic congestion. The concentration of investments especially in the secondary and tertiary sectors in the Wilaya has attracted a large rural population. The latter, combined with the high rate of natural growing, favored the imbalance of the spatial frame of wilayal system and consequently the traffic congestion of the primate city (Biskra). This urban disease is explained by a two-tier development. The capital of Wilaya growing faster than its others centers body and takes measurements of proportion to the whole. The consequences can only be negative. The pressure on the roads, the growth of the fleet, overloading of equipment and activities have become the characteristics of the city of Biskra, which can no longer meet the needs of its inhabitants. This research attempts to show the relationship between urban congestion of the primate city and the imbalance of the spatial structure of the micro-regional urban system.

Keywords: traffic congestion, spatial structure, pressure on the roads, equipment and activities

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Authors: Manamba Epaphra

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model that includes control variables such as trade liberalization, life expectancy and macroeconomic stability proxied by inflation is used to estimate the impact of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012), and Le and Suruga (2005) are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on private domestic investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Generally, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment plays an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. FDI also tends to affect growth positively, while control variables such as high population growth and inflation appear to harm economic growth. Results also reveal that control variables such as trade openness and life expectancy improvement tend to increase real GDP growth. Moreover, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth reduces when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Thus, there is a great need for promoting domestic saving so as to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

Keywords: FDI, public investment, domestic private investment, crowding out effect, economic growth

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

Abstract:

International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: Jingqian Xiao

Abstract:

The rapid wave of urbanization triggered by China’s economic growth over the past few decades has inevitably impacted the country’s educational landscape. Educational spaces in China shifted during the 1990s when, due to the government’s tax reforms, large numbers of rural schools were abolished or merged with urban schools, resulting in an “urbanization” of school content and values. While urbanized education is now the status quo, there is as yet no literature review, to our best knowledge, that comprehensively summarizes academic work on this phenomenon. Besides, most research on Chinese educational urbanization relies on basic policy deductions, and there is room for improvement in both the quality and quantity of empirical research on this topic. This paper, therefore, reviews relevant literature on educational urbanization in China from three interrelated factors that shape educational inequality between urban and rural China, namely the urbanization in educational space, school content, and educational values. Results find that the main discussion on Chinese educational urbanization often addresses how Chinese rural education can be improved by reforming the urbanization model to revitalize rural society. While the complete urbanization of Chinese education does not seem feasible, the rapidly changing nature of China’s development patterns and political landscape means the course of Chinese education may shift at any time. When the government does decide to fulfill its intentions to improve the countryside, many formerly dilapidated rural schools may be revived, but for the moment, both rural and urban education in China suffers from governmental neglect. In addition, the breakout of COVID-19, which led to a sudden spread of online education that reopened the gap between the educational conditions and the cultural capital of families in rural and urban areas, has also posed new challenges for China’s attempts to resolve conflicting interests between urban and rural schools and promote educational equality.

Keywords: Chinese education, educational inequality, rural and urban education, urbanization in education

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