Search results for: thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC)

Authors: Smita Sonker

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Various investigators have determined the degree of approximation of conjugate signals (functions) of functions belonging to different classes Lipα, Lip(α,p), Lip(ξ(t),p), W(Lr,ξ(t), (β ≥ 0)) by matrix summability means, lower triangular matrix operator, product means (i.e. (C,1)(E,1), (C,1)(E,q), (E,q)(C,1) (N,p,q)(E,1), and (E,q)(N,pn) of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. In this paper, we shall determine the degree of approximation of 2π-periodic function conjugate functions of f belonging to the function classes Lipα and W(Lr; ξ(t); (β ≥ 0)) by (C1.T) -means of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. On the other hand, we shall review above-mentioned work in the light of Lenski.

Keywords: signals, trigonometric fourier approximation, class W(L^r, \xi(t), conjugate fourier series

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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Authors: Azhar Ulhaq, Zubair Yameen, Almas Anjum

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Frequency behaviour of self-excited induction generator (SEIG) wind turbines during control mode transition from grid connected to islanded mode is studied in detail. A robust control scheme for frequency regulation based on combined action of STATCOM, energy storage system (ESS) and pitch angle control for wind powered microgrid (MG) is proposed. Suggested STATCOM controller comprises a 3-phase voltage source converter (VSC) that contains insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) based pulse width modulation (PWM) inverters along with a capacitor bank. Energy storage system control consists of current controlled voltage source converter and battery bank. Both of them acting simultaneously after detection of island compensates for reactive and active power demands, thus regulating frequency at point of common coupling (PCC) and also improves load stability. STATCOM integrates at point of common coupling and ESS is connected to microgrids main bus. Results reveal that proposed control not only stabilizes frequency during transition duration but also minimizes sudden frequency imbalance caused by load variation or wind intermittencies in islanded operation. System is investigated with and without suggested control scheme. The efficacy of proposed strategy has been verified by simulation in MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: energy storage system, island, wind, STATCOM, self-excited induction generator, SEIG, transient

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Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria, Puneeta Marwaha

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Nonlinear methods of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis are becoming more popular. It has been observed that complexity measures quantify the regularity and uncertainty of cardiovascular RR-interval time series. In the present work, SampEn has been evaluated in healthy Normal Sinus Rhythm (NSR) male and female subjects for different data lengths and tolerance level r. It is demonstrated that SampEn is small for higher values of tolerance r. Also SampEn value of healthy female group is higher than that of healthy male group for short data length and with increase in data length both groups overlap each other and it is difficult to distinguish them. The SampEn gives inaccurate results by assigning higher value to female group, because male subject have more complex HRV pattern than that of female subjects. Therefore, this traditional algorithm exhibits higher complexity for healthy female subjects than for healthy male subjects, which is misleading observation. This may be due to the fact that SampEn do not account for multiple time scales inherent in the physiologic time series and the hidden spatial and temporal fluctuations remains unexplored.

Keywords: heart rate variability, normal sinus rhythm group, RR interval time series, sample entropy

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Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

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Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

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Authors: Ravi Sheshala, Annie Lee, Ai Lin Ong, Ling Ling Cheu, Thiagarajan Madheswaran, Thankur R. R. Singh

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The objectives of the present research work were to develop and characterize biodegradable controlled release photo cross-linked implants of Triamcinolone Acetonide (TA) for the treatment of chronic ocular diseases. The photo cross-linked implants were prepared using film casting technique by mixing TA (2.5%) polyethylene glycol diacrylate (PEGDA 700), pore formers (mannitol, maltose, and gelatin) and the photoinitiator (Irgacure 2959). The resulting mixture was injected into moulds using 21 G and subjected to photocrosslinking at 365 nm. Scanning electron microscopy results demonstrated that more pores were formed in the films with the increase in the concentration of pore formers from 2%-10%. The maximum force required to break the films containing 2-10% of pore formers were determined in both dry and wet conditions using texture analyzer and found that films in a dry condition required a higher force to break compared to wet condition and blank films. In vitro drug release from photo cross-linked films were determined by incubating samples in 50 ml PBS pH 7.4 at 37 C and the samples were analyzed for drug release by HPLC. The films demonstrated a biphasic release profile i.e. an initial burst release (<20%) on the first day followed by a constant and continuous drug release in a controlled manner for 42 days. The drug release from all formulations followed the first-order release pattern and the combination of diffusion and erosion release mechanism. In conclusion, the developed formulations were able to provide controlled drug delivery to treat the chronic ocular diseases.

Keywords: controlled release, ophthalmic, PEGDA, photocrosslinking, pore formers

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Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

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In 2016, Clements, Hurn, and Li proposed a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting, reporting an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% on an 11-years dataset for the Queensland region in Australia. We present an adaptation of their model to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province in Canada. More precisely, we take into account two additional meteorological variables — cloudiness and wind speed — on top of temperature, as well as the use of multiple meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. We also consider other minor improvements. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1:79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering

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Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

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One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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Authors: Hare Krishna Nigam

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In this paper, for the first time, (E,q)(C,2) product summability method is introduced and two quite new results on degree of approximation of the function f belonging to Lip (alpha,r)class and W(L(r), xi(t)) class by (E,q)(C,2) product means of Fourier series, has been obtained.

Keywords: Degree of approximation, (E, q)(C, 2) means, Fourier series, Lebesgue integral, Lip (alpha, r)class, W(L(r), xi(t))class of functions

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Authors: F. J. Adeyeye, D. Eni, K. M. Okedoye

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In this paper we present a Hybrid of Adomian decomposition method (ADM). This is the substitution of a One-step method of Taylor’s series approximation of orders I and II, into the nonlinear part of Adomian decomposition method resulting in a convergent series scheme. This scheme is applied to solve some Logistic problems represented as Abelian differential equation and the results are compared with the actual solution and Runge-kutta of order IV in order to ascertain the accuracy and efficiency of the scheme. The findings shows that the scheme is efficient enough to solve logistic problems considered in this paper.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition method, nonlinear part, one-step method, Taylor series approximation, hybrid of Adomian polynomial, logistic problem, Malthusian parameter, Verhulst Model

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Authors: John E. Boberg, Steven J. Bourgeois

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The decline in student engagement and motivation through the middle years is well documented and clearly associated with a decline in mathematics achievement that persists through high school. To combat this trend and, very often, to meet high-stakes accountability standards, a growing number of parents, teachers, and schools have implemented various methods to incentivize learning. However, according to Self-Determination Theory, forms of incentivized learning such as public praise, tangible rewards, or threats of punishment tend to undermine intrinsic motivation and learning. By focusing on external forms of motivation that thwart autonomy in children, adults also potentially threaten relatedness measures such as trust and emotional engagement. Furthermore, these controlling motivational techniques tend to promote shallow forms of cognitive engagement at the expense of more effective deep processing strategies. Therefore, any short-term gains in apparent engagement or test scores are overshadowed by long-term diminished motivation, resulting in inauthentic approaches to learning and lower achievement. The current study focuses on the relationships between student trust, engagement, and motivation during these crucial years as students transition from elementary to middle school. In order to test the effects of controlled motivational techniques on achievement in mathematics, this quantitative study was conducted on a convenience sample of 22 elementary and middle schools from a single public charter school district in the south-central United States. The study employed multi-source data from students (N = 1,054), parents (N = 7,166), and teachers (N = 356), along with student achievement data and contextual campus variables. Cross-sectional questionnaires were used to measure the students’ self-regulated learning, emotional and cognitive engagement, and trust in teachers. Parents responded to a single item on incentivizing the academic performance of their child, and teachers responded to a series of questions about their acceptance of various incentive strategies. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to evaluate model fit and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the predictor variables on achievement. Although a student’s trust in teacher positively predicted both emotional and cognitive engagement, none of these three predictors accounted for any variance in achievement in mathematics. The parents’ use of incentives, on the other hand, predicted a student’s perception of his or her controlled motivation, and these two variables had significant negative effects on achievement. While controlled motivation had the greatest effects on achievement, parental incentives demonstrated both direct and indirect effects on achievement through the students’ self-reported controlled motivation. Comparing upper elementary student data with middle-school student data revealed that controlling forms of motivation may be taking their toll on student trust and engagement over time. While parental incentives positively predicted both cognitive and emotional engagement in the younger sub-group, such forms of controlling motivation negatively predicted both trust in teachers and emotional engagement in the middle-school sub-group. These findings support the claims, posited by Self-Determination Theory, about the dangers of incentivizing learning. Short-term gains belie the underlying damage to motivational processes that lead to decreased intrinsic motivation and achievement. Such practices also appear to thwart basic human needs such as relatedness.

Keywords: controlled motivation, student engagement, incentivized learning, mathematics achievement, self-determination theory, student trust

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Mounir Belattar

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In this paper the Analysis of voltage waves that propagate along a lossless exponential nonuniform line is presented. For this analysis the parameters of this line are assumed to be varying function of the distance x along the line from the source end. The approach is based on the tow-port networks cascading presentation to derive the ABDC parameters of transmission using Picard-Carson Method which is a powerful method in getting a power series solution for distributed network because it is easy to calculate poles and zeros and solves differential equations such as telegrapher equations by an iterative sequence. So the impedance, admittance voltage and current along the line are expanded as a Taylor series in x/l where l is the total length of the line to obtain at the end, the main transmission line parameters such as voltage response and transmission and reflexion coefficients represented by scattering parameters in frequency domain.

Keywords: ABCD parameters, characteristic impedance exponential nonuniform transmission line, Picard-Carson's method, S parameters, Taylor's series

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Asif Zaman, Moinul Islam Zaber, Amin Ahsan Ali

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In recent years of industrialization, the South Asian countries are being affected by air pollution due to a severe increase in fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅). Among them, Bangladesh is one of the most polluting countries. In this paper, statistical analyses were conducted on the time series of PM₂.₅ from various districts in Bangladesh, mostly around Dhaka city. Research has been conducted on the dynamic interactions and relationships between PM₂.₅ concentrations in different zones. The study is conducted toward understanding the characteristics of PM₂.₅, such as spatial-temporal characterization, correlation of other contributors behind air pollution such as human activities, driving factors and environmental casualties. Clustering on the data gave an insight on the districts groups based on their AQI frequency as representative districts. Seasonality analysis on hourly and monthly frequency found higher concentration of fine particles in nighttime and winter season, respectively. Cross correlation analysis discovered a phenomenon of correlations among cities based on time-lagged series of air particle readings and visualization framework is developed for observing interaction in PM₂.₅ concentrations between cities. Significant time-lagged correlations were discovered between the PM₂.₅ time series in different city groups throughout the country by cross correlation analysis. Additionally, seasonal heatmaps depict that the pooled series correlations are less significant in warmer months, and among cities of greater geographic distance as well as time lag magnitude and direction of the best shifted correlated particulate matter time series among districts change seasonally. The geographic map visualization demonstrates spatial behaviour of air pollution among districts around Dhaka city and the significant effect of wind direction as the vital actor on correlated shifted time series. The visualization framework has multipurpose usage from gathering insight of general and seasonal air quality of Bangladesh to determining the pathway of regional transportation of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality, particles, cross correlation, seasonality

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Authors: G. Barański, P. Kacejko, M. Wendeker

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The impact of the ignition advance control algorithms of the ASz-62IR-16X aircraft piston engine on a combustion process has been presented in this paper. This aircraft engine is a nine-cylinder 1000 hp engine with a special electronic control ignition system. This engine has two spark plugs per cylinder with an ignition advance angle dependent on load and the rotational speed of the crankshaft. Accordingly, in most cases, these angles are not optimal for power generated. The scope of this paper is focused on developing algorithms to control the ignition advance angle in an electronic ignition control system of an engine. For this type of engine, i.e. radial engine, an ignition advance angle should be controlled independently for each cylinder because of the design of such an engine and its crankshaft system. The ignition advance angle is controlled in an open-loop way, which means that the control signal (i.e. ignition advance angle) is determined according to the previously developed maps, i.e. recorded tables of the correlation between the ignition advance angle and engine speed and load. Load can be measured by engine crankshaft speed or intake manifold pressure. Due to a limited memory of a controller, the impact of other independent variables (such as cylinder head temperature or knock) on the ignition advance angle is given as a series of one-dimensional arrays known as corrective characteristics. The value of the ignition advance angle specified combines the value calculated from the primary characteristics and several correction factors calculated from correction characteristics. Individual cylinder control can proceed in line with certain indicators determined from pressure registered in a combustion chamber. Control is assumed to be based on the following indicators: maximum pressure, maximum pressure angle, indicated mean effective pressure. Additionally, a knocking combustion indicator was defined. Individual control can be applied to a single set of spark plugs only, which results from two fundamental ideas behind designing a control system. Independent operation of two ignition control systems – if two control systems operate simultaneously. It is assumed that the entire individual control should be performed for a front spark plug only and a rear spark plug shall be controlled with a fixed (or specific) offset relative to the front one or from a reference map. The developed algorithms will be verified by simulation and engine test sand experiments. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: algorithm, combustion process, radial engine, spark plug

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Authors: Sun-Ki Hong, Yong-Ho Cho, Ki-Seok Kim, Tae-Sam Kang

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Piezoelectric actuator is treated as RC load when it is modeled electrically. For some piezoelectric actuator applications, arbitrary voltage is required to actuate. Especially for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving like as sine wave, some special inverter with circuit that can charge and discharge the capacitive energy can be used. In this case, the difference between power supply level and the object voltage level for RC load is varied. Because the control gain is constant, the controlled output is not uniform according to the voltage difference. In this paper, for charge and discharge circuit for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving for piezoelectric actuator, the controller gain is controlled according to the voltage difference. With the proposed simple idea, the load voltage can have controlled smoothly although the voltage difference is varied. The appropriateness is proved from the simulation of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: analog voltage inverter, capacitive load, gain control, dc-dc converter, piezoelectric, voltage waveform

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Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

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Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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Authors: Caglayan Pinar Demirtas, Mustafa Koc

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Objective: This study was carried out in order to find out; the methods which are used by primary school teachers to cope with stress, their psychological health, and the direction of controlling focus. The study was carried out by using the ‘school survey’ and ‘society survey’ methods. Method: The study included primary school teachers. The study group was made up of 1066 people; 511 women and 555 men who accepted volunteerly to complete; ‘the inventory for collecting data, ‘the Scale for Attitude of Overcoming Stress’ (SBTE / SAOS), ‘Rotter’s Scale for the Focus of Inner- Outer Control’ (RİDKOÖ / RSFIOC), and ‘the Symptom Checking List’ (SCL- 90). The data was collected by using ‘the Scale for Attitude of Overcoming Stress’, ‘the Scale for the Focus of Inner- Outer Control’, ‘the Symptom Checking List’, and a personal information form developed by the researcher. SPSS for Windows packet programme was used. Result: The age variable is a factor in interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anxciety, hostality symptoms but it is not a factor in the other symptoms. The variable, gender, is a factor in emotional practical escaping overcoming method but it is not a factor in the other overcoming methods. Namely, it has been found out that, women use emotional practical escaping overcoming method more than men. Marital status is a factor in methods of overcoming stress such as trusting in religion, emotional practical escaping and biochemical escaping while it is not a factor in the other methods. Namely, it has been found out that married teachers use trusting in religion method, and emotional practical escaping method more than single ones. Single teachers generally use biochemical escaping method. In primary school teachers’ direction of controlling focus, gender variable is a factor. It has been found out that women are more inner controlled while the men are more outer controlled. The variable, time of service, is a factor in the direction of controlling focus; that is, teachers with 1-5 years of service time are more inner controlled compared with teachers with 16-20 years of service time. The variable, age, is a factor in the direction of controlling focus; that is, teachers in 26-30 age groups are more outer controlled compared with the other age groups and again teachers in 26-30 age group are more inner controlled when compared with the other age groups. Direction of controlling focus is a factor in the primary school teachers’ psychological health. Namely, being outer controlled is a factor but being inner controlled is not. The methods; trusting in religion, active plannıng and biochemical escaping used by primary school teachers to cope with stress act as factors in the direction of controlling focus but not in the others. Namely, it has been found out that outer controlled teachers prefer the methods of trusting in religion and active planning while the inner controlled ones prefer biochemical escaping.

Keywords: coping with, controlling focus, psychological health, stress

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: S. Meguenni, A. Djahbar, K. Tounsi

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Electric railway traction systems are complex; they have electrical couplings, magnetic and solid mechanics. These couplings impose several constraints that complicate the modeling and analysis of these systems. An example of drive systems, which combine the advantages of the use of multiphase machines, power electronics and computing means, is mono convert isseur multi-machine system which can control a fully decoupled so many machines whose electric windings are connected in series. In this approach, our attention especially on modeling and independent control of two five phase synchronous machine with permanent magnet connected in series and fed by a matrix converter application to the rail traction (bogie of a locomotive BB 36000).

Keywords: synchronous machine, vector control Multi-machine/ Multi-inverter, matrix inverter, Railway traction

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Authors: Nessrine Jebari, Elisabeth Dufour-Gergam, Mehdi Ammar

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This research introduces an integrative microfluidic immunosensor, ingeniously conceived for the real-time surveillance of proinflammatory conditions. By harnessing the potential of COMSOL Multiphysics for intricate 3D modelling, this study signifies a notable leap in the domain of biomedical diagnostics. Our development, akin to a patch, fulfills the growing demand for non-intrusive monitoring apparatuses, and inaugurates innovative approaches for the identification and quantification of biomarkers in sweat. This is achieved through a synergistic approach of magnetofluidic manipulation and capacitive detection methodologies. Central to the device’s architecture is the employment of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) tagged with biomarkers. The apparatus is composed of two fundamental segments: the primary segment includes a series of microcoils for enhanced MNP entrapment and microfluidic blending, while the secondary segment comprises a stratified arrangement of a microcoil alongside copper electrodes, serving as a capacitor for capacitive measurement. Our findings reveal the immunosensor's formidable detection capabilities, exhibiting a sensitivity scope of 60% to 75% with 70% MNP saturation. These results underscore its potential to surpass the boundaries of traditional biosensors, offering improved consistency and precision. Moreover, the immunosensor is adept at identifying a wide array of pathogens, encompassing bacteria, and is compatible with other diagnostic methods for concurrent detection of multiple biomarkers. This versatility renders it an invaluable asset in both clinical and research environments.

Keywords: COMSOL Multiphysics 3d simulation, microfluidic immunosensor, magnetofluidic manipulation, magnetic nanoparticle (MNP)trapping, laboratory-on-patch technology

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Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

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With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

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Authors: Mohamed E. Khalifa, Adil A. Gobouri

Abstract:

Potential synthesis of a series of 3-amino-4-arylazothiophene derivatives from reaction of 2-cyano-2-phenylthiocarbamoyl acetamide and the appropriate α-halogenated reagents, followed by coupling with different aryl diazonium salts (Japp-Klingemann reaction), and another series of 5-arylazo-thiazol-2-ylcarbamoyl-thiophene derivatives from base-catalyzed intramolecular condensation of 5-arylazo-2-(N-chloroacetyl)amino-thiazole with selected B-keto compounds (Thorpe-Ziegler reaction) was performed. The biological activity of the two series was studied in vitro. Their versatility for pharmaceutical purposes was reported, where they displayed remarkable activities against selected pathogenic microorganisms; Bacillus subtilize, Staphylococcus aureus (Gram positive bacteria), Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Gram negative bacteria) and Aspergillus flavus, Candida albicans (fungi) with various degrees related to their chemical structures.

Keywords: thiophene, 2-aminothiazole, compounds, antioxidant, antitumor, antimicrobial

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Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

Abstract:

The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Wei-Na Li, Mei-Lan Piao, Nam Kim

Abstract:

We proposed a novel computer-generated hologram (CGH) achieved scheme, wherein the CGH is generated from a point cloud which is transformed by a mapping relationship of a series of elemental images captured from a real three-dimensional (3D) object by using a lens array. This scheme is composed of three procedures: mapping from elemental images to point cloud, hologram generation, and hologram display. A mapping method is figured out to achieve a virtual volume date (point cloud) from a series of elemental images. This mapping method consists of two steps. Firstly, the coordinate (x, y) pairs and its appearing number are calculated from the series of sub-images, which are generated from the elemental images. Secondly, a series of corresponding coordinates (x, y, z) are calculated from the elemental images. Then a hologram is generated from the volume data that is calculated by the previous two steps. Eventually, a spatial light modulator (SLM) and a green laser beam are utilized to display this hologram and reconstruct the original 3D object. In this paper, in order to show a more auto stereoscopic display of a real 3D object, we successfully obtained the actual depth data of every discrete point of the real 3D object, and overcame the inherent drawbacks of the depth camera by obtaining point cloud from the elemental images.

Keywords: elemental image, point cloud, computer-generated hologram (CGH), autostereoscopic display

Procedia PDF Downloads 549

Authors: Ibrahim Can, Fatih Tosunoğlu

Abstract:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95 % of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

Abstract:

Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

Procedia PDF Downloads 200