Search results for: stock return-stock price

Authors: Jollen Dai, Truman You, Xinyun Du, Katrina Liu

Abstract:

Transportation is one of the leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Thus, to meet the Paris Agreement 2015, all countries must adopt a different and more sustainable transportation system. From bikes to Maglev, the world is slowly shifting to sustainable transportation. To develop a utility public transit system, a sustainable web of buses must be implemented. As of now, only a handful of cities have adopted a detailed plan to implement a full fleet of e-buses by the 2030s, with Shenzhen in the lead. Every change requires a detailed plan and a focused analysis of the impacts of the change. In this report, the economic implications and financial implications have been taken into consideration to develop a well-rounded 10-year plan for New York City. We also apply the same financial model to the other cities, LA and Chicago. We picked NYC, Chicago, and LA to conduct the comparative NPB analysis since they are all big metropolitan cities and have complex transportation systems. All three cities have started an action plan to achieve a full fleet of e-bus in the decades. Plus, their energy carbon footprint and their energy price are very different, which are the key factors to the benefits of electric buses. Using TCO (Total Cost Ownership) financial analysis, we developed a model to calculate NPB (Net Present Benefit) /and compare EBS (electric buses) to DBS (diesel buses). We have considered all essential aspects in our model: initial investment, including the cost of a bus, charger, and installation, government fund (federal, state, local), labor cost, energy (electricity or diesel) cost, maintenance cost, insurance cost, health and environment benefit, and V2G (vehicle to grid) benefit. We see about $1,400,000 in benefits for a 12-year lifetime of an EBS compared to DBS provided the government fund to offset 50% of EBS purchase cost. With the government subsidy, an EBS starts to make positive cash flow in 5th year and can pay back its investment in 5 years. Please remember that in our model, we consider environmental and health benefits, and every year, $50,000 is counted as health benefits per bus. Besides health benefits, the significant benefits come from the energy cost savings and maintenance savings, which are about $600,000 and $200,000 in 12-year life cycle. Using linear regression, given certain budget limitations, we then designed an optimal three-phase process to replace all NYC electric buses in 10 years, i.e., by 2033. The linear regression process is to minimize the total cost over the years and have the lowest environmental cost. The overall benefits to replace all DBS with EBS for NYC is over $2.1 billion by the year of 2033. For LA, and Chicago, the benefits for electrification of the current bus fleet are $1.04 billion and $634 million by 2033. All NPB analyses and the algorithm to optimize the electrification phase process are implemented in Python code and can be shared.

Keywords: financial modeling, total cost ownership, net present benefits, electric bus, diesel bus, NYC, LA, Chicago

Procedia PDF Downloads 16

Authors: Deepak Loura

Abstract:

Climate change is considered one of the major environmental problems of the 21st century and a lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as the threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting a negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of the natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (NO) are important biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the agricultural sector contributing to global warming and their concentration is increasing alarmingly. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change in 2 ways: first, directly, by affecting plant growth development and yield due to changes in rainfall/precipitation and temperature and/or CO₂ levels, and second, indirectly, there may be considerable impact on agricultural land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter transformations, soil erosion, distribution and frequency of infestation by insect pests, diseases or weeds, the decline in arable areas (due to submergence of coastal lands), and availability of energy. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ promotes the growth and productivity of C3 plants. On the other hand, an increase in temperature, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer- use efficiencies, and increase evapotranspiration among others. All these could considerably affect crop yield in long run. Climate resilient agriculture consisting of adaptation, mitigation, and other agriculture practices can potentially enhance the capacity of the system to withstand climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Climate resilient agriculture turns the climate change threats that have to be tackled into new business opportunities for the sector in different regions and therefore provides a triple win: mitigation, adaptation, and economic growth. Improving the soil organic carbon stock of soil is integral to any strategy towards adapting to and mitigating the abrupt climate change, advancing food security, and improving the environment. Soil carbon sequestration is one of the major mitigation strategies to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation before it might affect global crop production drastically. To cope with these extreme changes, future development needs to make adjustments in technology, management practices, and legislation. Adaptation and mitigation are twin approaches to bringing resilience to climate change in agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, crop production, climate resilient agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Xu Wang

Abstract:

This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Krishmali N. Ekanayake, Brendan J. Holland, Colin J. Barrow, Rick Wood

Abstract:

Globally, more than one-third of all food produced is lost or wasted, equating to 1.3 billion tonnes per year. Around 31.2 million tonnes of food waste are generated across the production, supply, and consumption chain in Australia. Generally, the food waste management processes adopt environmental-friendly and more sustainable approaches such as composting, anerobic digestion and energy implemented technologies. However, unavoidable, and non-recyclable food waste ends up as landfilling and incineration that involve many undesirable impacts and challenges on the environment. A biorefinery approach contributes to a waste-minimising circular economy by converting food and other organic biomass waste into valuable outputs, including feeds, nutrition, fertilisers, and biomaterials. As a solution, Green Eco Technologies has developed a food waste treatment process using WasteMaster system. The system uses charged oxygen and moderate temperatures to convert food waste, without bacteria, additives, or water, into a virtually odour-free, much reduced quantity of reusable residual material. In the context of a biorefinery, the WasteMaster dries and mills food waste into a form suitable for storage or downstream extraction/separation/concentration to create products. The focus of the study is to determine the nutritional composition of WasteMaster processed residue to potential develop aquafeed ingredients. The global aquafeed industry is projected to reach a high value market in future, which has shown high demand for the aquafeed products. Therefore, food waste can be utilized for aquaculture feed development by reducing landfill. This framework will lessen the requirement of raw crops cultivation for aquafeed development and reduce the aquaculture footprint. In the present study, the nutritional elements of processed residue are consistent with the input food waste type, which has shown that the WasteMaster is not affecting the expected nutritional distribution. The macronutrient retention values of protein, lipid, and nitrogen free extract (NFE) are detected >85%, >80%, and >95% respectively. The sensitive food components including omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, amino acids, and phenolic compounds have been found intact in each residue material. Preliminary analysis suggests a price comparability with current aquafeed ingredient cost making the economic feasibility. The results suggest high potentiality of aquafeed development as 5 to 10% of the ingredients to replace/partially substitute other less sustainable ingredients across biorefinery setting. Our aim is to improve the sustainability of aquaculture and reduce the environmental impacts of food waste.

Keywords: biorefinery, ffood waste residue, input, wasteMaster

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Kumalbeo Paul Kamani

Abstract:

Marketing plays a very important role in the success of any firm since it represents the means through which a firm can reach its customers and also promotes its products and services. In fact, marketing aids the firm in identifying customers who the business can competitively serve, and tailoring product offerings, prices, distribution, promotional efforts, and services towards those customers. Unfortunately, in many firms, marketing has been reduced to merely advertisement. For effective marketing, firms must go beyond this often-limited function of advertisement. In the fashion industry in particular, marketing faces challenges due to its peculiar characteristics. Previous research for instance affirms the idiosyncrasy and peculiarities that differentiate the fashion industry from other industrial areas. It has been documented that the fashion industry is characterized seasonal intensity, short product life cycles, the difficulty of competitive differentiation, and long time for companies to reach financial stability. These factors are noted to pose obstacles to the fashion entrepreneur’s endeavours and can be the reasons that explain their low survival rates. In recent times, the fashion industry has been described as a market that is accessible market, has low entry barriers, both in terms of needed capital and skills which have all accounted for the burgeoning nature of startups. Yet as already stated, marketing is particularly challenging in the industry. In particular, areas such as marketing, branding, growth, project planning, financial and relationship management might represent challenges for the fashion entrepreneur but that have not been properly addressed by previous research. It is therefore important to assess marketing strategies of fashion firms and the factors influencing their success. This study generally sought to examine marketing strategies of fashion dealers in Ghana and their critical success factors. The study employed the quantitative survey research approach. A total of 120 fashion dealers were sampled. Questionnaires were used as instrument of data collection. Data collected was analysed using quantitative techniques including descriptive statistics and Relative Importance Index. The study revealed that the marketing strategies used by fashion apparels are text messages using mobile phones, referrals, social media marketing, and direct marketing. Results again show that the factors influencing fashion marketing effectiveness are strategic management, marketing mix (product, price, promotion etc), branding and business development. Policy implications are finally outlined. The study recommends among others that there is a need for the top management executive to craft and adopt marketing strategies that enable that are compatible with the fashion trends and the needs of the customers. This will improve customer satisfaction and hence boost market penetration. The study further recommends that the fashion industry in Ghana should seek to ensure that fashion apparels accommodate the diversity and the cultural setting of different customers to meet their unique needs.

Keywords: marketing, fashion, industry, success factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 15

Authors: Raymond Chi Fai Si Tou, Jacey Ja Young Choe, Amy Siu Ian So

Abstract:

Smart hotels can be defined as the hotel which has an intelligent system, through digitalization and networking which achieve hotel management and service information. In addition, smart hotels include high-end designs that integrate information and communication technology with hotel management fulfilling the guests’ needs and improving the quality, efficiency and satisfaction of hotel management. The purpose of this study is to identify appropriate factors that may influence guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit Smart Hotels based on service quality measurement of lodging quality index and extended UTAUT theory. Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is adopted as a framework to explain technology acceptance and use. Since smart hotels are technology-based infrastructure hotels, UTATU theory could be as the theoretical background to examine the guests’ acceptance and use after staying in smart hotels. The UTAUT identifies four key drivers of the adoption of information systems: performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions. The extended UTAUT modifies the definitions of the seven constructs for consideration; the four previously cited constructs of the UTAUT model together with three new additional constructs, which including hedonic motivation, price value and habit. Thus, the seven constructs from the extended UTAUT theory could be adopted to understand their intention to revisit smart hotels. The service quality model will also be adopted and integrated into the framework to understand the guests’ intention of smart hotels. There are rare studies to examine the service quality on guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit in smart hotels. In this study, Lodging Quality Index (LQI) will be adopted to measure the service quality in smart hotels. Using integrated UTAUT theory and service quality model because technological applications and services require using more than one model to understand the complicated situation for customers’ acceptance of new technology. Moreover, an integrated model could provide more perspective insights to explain the relationships of the constructs that could not be obtained from only one model. For this research, ten in-depth interviews are planned to recruit this study. In order to confirm the applicability of the proposed framework and gain an overview of the guest experience of smart hotels from the hospitality industry, in-depth interviews with the hotel guests and industry practitioners will be accomplished. In terms of the theoretical contribution, it predicts that the integrated models from the UTAUT theory and the service quality will provide new insights to understand factors that influence the guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit smart hotels. After this study identifies influential factors, smart hotel practitioners could understand which factors may significantly influence smart hotel guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit. In addition, smart hotel practitioners could also provide outstanding guests experience by improving their service quality based on the identified dimensions from the service quality measurement. Thus, it will be beneficial to the sustainability of the smart hotels business.

Keywords: intention to revisit, guest satisfaction, qualitative interviews, smart hotels

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Emma Pope, Demos Parapanos

Abstract:

Rural tourism has become more obvious and prevalent, with tourists’ increasingly seeking authentic experiences. This movement accelerated post-Covid, putting destinations in danger of reaching levels of saturation called ‘overtourism’. Whereas the phenomenon of overtourism has been frequently discussed in the urban context by academics and practitioners over recent years, it has hardly been referred to in the context of rural tourism, where perhaps it is even more difficult to manage. Rural tourism was historically considered small-scale, marked by its traditional character and by having little impact on nature and rural society. The increasing number of rural areas experiencing overtourism, however, demonstrates the need for new approaches, especially as the impacts and enablers of overtourism are context specific. Cumbria, with approximately 47 million visitors each year, and 23,000 operational enterprises, is one of these rural areas experiencing overtourism in the UK. Using the county of Cumbria as an example, this paper aims to explore better planning and management in rural destinations by clustering the area into rural and ‘urban-rural’ tourism zones. To achieve the aim, this study uses secondary data from a variety of sources to identify variables relating to visitor economy development and demand. These data include census data relating to population and employment, tourism industry-specific data including tourism revenue, visitor activities, and accommodation stock, and big data sources such as Trip Advisor and All Trails. The combination of these data sources provides a breadth of tourism-related variables. The subsequent analysis of this data draws upon various validated models. For example, tourism and hospitality employment density, territorial tourism pressure, and accommodation density. In addition to these statistical calculations, other data are utilized to further understand the context of these zones, for example, tourist services, attractions, and activities. The data was imported into ARCGIS where the density of the different variables is visualized on maps. This study aims to provide an understanding of the geographical context of visitor economy development and tourist behavior in rural areas. The findings contribute to an understanding of the spatial dynamics of tourism within the region of Cumbria through the creation of thematized maps. Different zones of tourism industry clusters are identified, which include elements relating to attractions, enterprises, infrastructure, tourism employment and economic impact. These maps visualize hot and cold spots relating to a variety of tourism contexts. It is believed that the strategy used to provide a visual overview of tourism development and demand in Cumbria could provide a strategic tool for rural areas to better plan marketing opportunities and avoid overtourism. These findings can inform future sustainability policy and destination management strategies within the areas through an understanding of the processes behind the emergence of both hot and cold spots. It may mean that attract and disperse needs to be reviewed in terms of a strategic option. In other words, to use sector or zonal policies for the individual hot or cold areas with transitional zones dependent upon local economic, social and environmental factors.

Keywords: overtourism, rural tourism, sustainable tourism, tourism planning, tourism zones

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Dan Kanmegne

Abstract:

Africa will become the most populated continent by the end of the century, with around 4 billion inhabitants. Food security and climate changes will become continental issues since agricultural practices depend on climate but also contribute to global emissions and land degradation. Agroforestry has been identified as a cost-efficient and reliable strategy to address these two issues. It is defined as the integrated management of trees and crops/animals in the same land unit. Agroforestry provides benefits in terms of goods (fruits, medicine, wood, etc.) and services (windbreaks, fertility, etc.), and is acknowledged to have a great potential for carbon sequestration; therefore it can be integrated into reduction mechanisms of carbon emissions. Particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the constraint stands in the lack of information about both areas under agroforestry and the characterization (composition, structure, and management) of each agroforestry system at the country level. This study describes and quantifies “what is where?”, earliest to the quantification of carbon stock in different systems. Remote sensing (RS) is the most efficient approach to map such a dynamic technology as agroforestry since it gives relatively adequate and consistent information over a large area at nearly no cost. RS data fulfill the good practice guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) that is to be used in carbon estimation. Satellite data are getting more and more accessible, and the archives are growing exponentially. To retrieve useful information to support decision-making out of this large amount of data, satellite data needs to be organized so to ensure fast processing, quick accessibility, and ease of use. A new solution is a data cube, which can be understood as a multi-dimensional stack (space, time, data type) of spatially aligned pixels and used for efficient access and analysis. A data cube for Burkina Faso has been set up from the cooperation project between the international service provider WASCAL and Germany, which provides an accessible exploitation architecture of multi-temporal satellite data. The aim of this study is to map and characterize agroforestry systems using the Burkina Faso earth observation data cube. The approach in its initial stage is based on an unsupervised image classification of a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series from 2010 to 2018, to stratify the country based on the vegetation. Fifteen strata were identified, and four samples per location were randomly assigned to define the sampling units. For safety reasons, the northern part will not be part of the fieldwork. A total of 52 locations will be visited by the end of the dry season in February-March 2020. The field campaigns will consist of identifying and describing different agroforestry systems and qualitative interviews. A multi-temporal supervised image classification will be done with a random forest algorithm, and the field data will be used for both training the algorithm and accuracy assessment. The expected outputs are (i) map(s) of agroforestry dynamics, (ii) characteristics of different systems (main species, management, area, etc.); (iii) assessment report of Burkina Faso data cube.

Keywords: agroforestry systems, Burkina Faso, earth observation data cube, multi-temporal image classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Ching Shya Lee, Mohamed Kheireddine Aroua, Wan Mohd Ashri Wan Daud, Patrick Cognet, Yolande Peres, Mohammed Ajeel

Abstract:

In recent years, with the decreasing supply of fossil fuel, renewable energy has received a significant demand. Biodiesel which is well known as vegetable oil based fatty acid methyl ester is an alternative fuel for diesel. It can be produced from transesterification of vegetable oils, such as palm oil, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, etc., with methanol. During the transesterification process, crude glycerol is formed as a by-product, resulting in 10% wt of the total biodiesel production. To date, due to the fast growing of biodiesel production in worldwide, the crude glycerol supply has also increased rapidly and resulted in a significant price drop for glycerol. Therefore, extensive research has been developed to use glycerol as feedstock to produce various added-value chemicals, such as tartronic acid, mesoxalic acid, glycolic acid, glyceric acid, propanediol, acrolein etc. The industrial processes that usually involved are selective oxidation, biofermentation, esterification, and hydrolysis. However, the conversion of glycerol into added-value compounds by electrochemical approach is rarely discussed. Currently, the approach is mainly focused on the electro-oxidation study of glycerol under potentiostatic mode for cogenerating energy with other chemicals. The electro-organic synthesis study from glycerol under galvanostatic mode is seldom reviewed. In this study, the glycerol was converted into various added-value compounds by electrochemical method under galvanostatic mode. This work aimed to study the possible compounds produced from glycerol by electrochemical technique in a one-pot electrolysis cell. The electro-organic synthesis study from glycerol was carried out in a single compartment reactor for 8 hours, over the platinum cathode and anode electrodes under acidic condition. Various parameters such as electric current (1.0 A to 3.0 A) and reaction temperature (27 °C to 80 °C) were evaluated. The products obtained were characterized by using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy equipped with an aqueous-stable polyethylene glycol stationary phase column. Under the optimized reaction condition, the glycerol conversion achieved as high as 95%. The glycerol was successfully converted into various added-value chemicals such as ethylene glycol, glycolic acid, glyceric acid, acetaldehyde, formic acid, and glyceraldehyde; given the yield of 1%, 45%, 27%, 4%, 0.7% and 5%, respectively. Based on the products obtained from this study, the reaction mechanism of this process is proposed. In conclusion, this study has successfully converted glycerol into a wide variety of added-value compounds. These chemicals are found to have high market value; they can be used in the pharmaceutical, food and cosmetic industries. This study effectively opens a new approach for the electrochemical conversion of glycerol. For further enhancement on the product selectivity, electrode material is an important parameter to be considered.

Keywords: biodiesel, glycerol, electrochemical conversion, galvanostatic mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: J. M. Geyser

Abstract:

Lamb is a popular meat throughout the world, particularly in Europe, the Middle East and Oceania. However, the conventional lamb industry faces challenges related to environmental sustainability, climate change, consumer health and dwindling profit margins. This has stimulated an increasing demand for organic lamb, as it is perceived to increase environmental sustainability, offer superior quality, taste, and nutritional value, which is appealing to farmers, including small-scale and female farmers, as it often commands a premium price. Despite its advantages, organic lamb production presents challenges, with a significant hurdle being the high production costs encompassing organic certification, lower stocking rates, higher mortality rates and marketing cost. These costs impact the profitability and competitiveness or organic lamb producers, particularly female and small-scale farmers, who often encounter additional obstacles, such as limited access to resources and markets. Therefore, this paper examines the cost of producing organic lambs and its impact on female farmers and raises the research question: “Is organic lamb production the saving grace for female and small-scale farmers?” Objectives include estimating and comparing production costs and profitability or organic lamb production with conventional lamb production, analyzing influencing factors, and assessing opportunities and challenges for female and small-scale farmers. The hypothesis states that organic lamb production can be a viable and beneficial option for female and small-scale farmers, provided that they can overcome high production costs and access premium markets. The study uses a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data. Qualitative data involves semi-structured interviews with ten female and small-scale farmers engaged in organic lamb production in South Africa. The interview covered topics such as farm characteristics, practices, cost components, mortality rates, income sources and empowerment indicators. Quantitative data used secondary published information and primary data from a female farmer. The research findings indicate that when a female farmer moves from conventional lamb production to organic lamb production, the cost in the first year of organic lamb production exceed those of conventional lamb production by over 100%. This is due to lower stocking rates and higher mortality rates in the organic system. However, costs start decreasing in the second year as stocking rates increase due to manure applications on grazing and lower mortality rates due to better worm resistance in the herd. In conclusion, this article sheds light on the economic dynamics of organic lamb production, particularly focusing on its impact on female farmers. To empower female farmers and to promote sustainable agricultural practices, it is imperative to understand the cost structures and profitability of organic lamb production.

Keywords: cost analysis, empowerment, female farmers, organic lamb production

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Serhat Tüzün, Tufan Demirel

Abstract:

Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been investigated by researchers and technologists for more than 35 years. This paper analyses the developments in the architecture and software of these systems, provides a systematic analysis for different Web-based DSS approaches and Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT), with the suggestion for future studies. Decision Support Systems literature begins with building model-oriented DSS in the late 1960s, theory developments in the 1970s, and the implementation of financial planning systems and Group DSS in the early and mid-80s. Then it documents the origins of Executive Information Systems, online analytic processing (OLAP) and Business Intelligence. The implementation of Web-based DSS occurred in the mid-1990s. With the beginning of the new millennia, intelligence is the main focus on DSS studies. Web-based technologies are having a major impact on design, development and implementation processes for all types of DSS. Web technologies are being utilized for the development of DSS tools by leading developers of decision support technologies. Major companies are encouraging its customers to port their DSS applications, such as data mining, customer relationship management (CRM) and OLAP systems, to a web-based environment. Similarly, real-time data fed from manufacturing plants are now helping floor managers make decisions regarding production adjustment to ensure that high-quality products are produced and delivered. Web-based DSS are being employed by organizations as decision aids for employees as well as customers. A common usage of Web-based DSS has been to assist customers configure product and service according to their needs. These systems allow individual customers to design their own products by choosing from a menu of attributes, components, prices and delivery options. The Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT) domain is a fast growing area of research that integrates various aspects of computer science and information systems. This includes intelligent systems, intelligent technology, intelligent agents, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural networks, machine learning, knowledge discovery, computational intelligence, data science, big data analytics, inference engines, recommender systems or engines, and a variety of related disciplines. Innovative applications that emerge using IDT often have a significant impact on decision-making processes in government, industry, business, and academia in general. This is particularly pronounced in finance, accounting, healthcare, computer networks, real-time safety monitoring and crisis response systems. Similarly, IDT is commonly used in military decision-making systems, security, marketing, stock market prediction, and robotics. Even though lots of research studies have been conducted on Decision Support Systems, a systematic analysis on the subject is still missing. Because of this necessity, this paper has been prepared to search recent articles about the DSS. The literature has been deeply reviewed and by classifying previous studies according to their preferences, taxonomy for DSS has been prepared. With the aid of the taxonomic review and the recent developments over the subject, this study aims to analyze the future trends in decision support systems.

Keywords: decision support systems, intelligent decision-making, systematic analysis, taxonomic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Shewit Kidane, Abebe Getahun, Wassie Anteneh, Admassu Demeke, Peter Goethals

Abstract:

We have reviewed major findings of scientific studies on Lake Tana fish resources and their threats. The aim was to provide summarized information for all concerned bodies and international readers to get full and comprehensive picture about the lake’s fish resource and conservation problems. The Lake Tana watershed comprise 28 fish species, of which 21 are endemic. Moreover, Lake Tana is the one among the top 250 lake regions of global importance for biodiversity and it is world recognized migratory birds wintering site. Lake Tana together with its adjacent wetlands provide directly and indirectly a livelihood for more than 500,000 people. However, owing to anthropogenic activities, the lake ecosystem as well as fish and attributes of the fisheries sector are severely degraded. Fish species in Lake Tana are suffering due to illegal fishing, damming, habitat/breeding ground degradation, wastewater disposal, introduction of exotic species, and lack of implementing fisheries regulations. Currently, more than 98% of fishers in Lake Tana are using the most destructive monofilament. Indeed, dams, irrigation schemes and hydropower are constructed in response to the emerging development need only. Mitigation techniques such as construction of fish ladders for the migratory fishes are the most forgotten. In addition, water resource developers are likely unaware of both the importance of the fisheries and the impact of dam construction on fish. As a result, the biodiversity issue is often missed. Besides, Lake Tana wetlands, which play vital role to sustain biodiversity, are not wisely utilised in the sense of the Ramsar Convention’s definition. Wetlands are considered as unhealthy and hence wetland conversion for the purpose of recession agriculture is still seen as advanced mode of development. As a result, many wetlands in the lake watershed are shrinking drastically over time and Cyprus papyrus, one of the characteristic features of Lake Tana, has dramatically declined in its distribution with some local extinction. Furthermore, the recently introduced water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is creating immense problems on the lake ecosystem. Moreover, currently, 1.56 million tons of sediment have deposited into the lake each year and wastes from the industries and residents are directly discharged into the lake without treatment. Recently, sign of eutrophication is revealed in Lake Tana and most coarsely, the incidence of cyanobacteria genus Microcystis was reported from the Bahir Dar Gulf of Lake Tana. Thus, the direct dependency of the communities on the lake water for drinking as well as to wash their body and clothes and its fisheries make the problem worst. Indeed, since it is home to many endemic migratory fish, such kind of unregulated developmental activities could be detrimental to their stocks. This can be best illustrated by the drastic stock reduction (>75% in biomass) of the world unique Labeobarbus species. So, unless proper management is put in place, the anthropogenic impacts can jeopardize the aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, in order to sustainably use the aquatic resources and fulfil the needs of the local people, every developmental activity and resource utilization should be carried out adhering to the available policies.

Keywords: anthropogenic impacts, dams, endemic fish, wetland degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

Abstract:

Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Elvis Medina, Alejandro Karelovic, Romel Jiménez

Abstract:

Catalytic ammonia decomposition represents an attractive alternative due to its high H₂ content (17.8% w/w), a product stream free of COₓ, among others; however, challenges need to be addressed for its consolidation as an H₂ chemical storage technology, especially, those focused on the synthesis of efficient bimetallic catalytic systems, as an alternative to the price and scarcity of ruthenium, the most active catalyst reported. In this sense, from the perspective of rational catalyst design, adjusting the main catalytic activity descriptor, a screening of supported catalysts with different compositional settings of cobalt-molybdenum metals is presented to evaluate their effect on the catalytic decomposition rate of ammonia. Subsequently, a kinetic study on the supported monometallic Co and Mo catalysts, as well as on the bimetallic CoMo catalyst with the highest activity is shown. The synthesis of catalysts supported on γ-alumina was carried out using the Charge Enhanced Dry Impregnation (CEDI) method, all with a 5% w/w loading metal. Seeking to maintain uniform dispersion, the catalysts were oxidized and activated (In-situ activation) using a flow of anhydrous air and hydrogen, respectively, under the same conditions: 40 ml min⁻¹ and 5 °C min⁻¹ from room temperature to 600 °C. Catalytic tests were carried out in a fixed-bed reactor, confirming the absence of transport limitations, as well as an Approach to equilibrium (< 1 x 10⁻⁴). The reaction rate on all catalysts was measured between 400 and 500 ºC at 53.09 kPa NH3. The synergy theoretically (DFT) reported for bimetallic catalysts was confirmed experimentally. Specifically, it was observed that the catalyst composed mainly of 75 mol% cobalt proved to be the most active in the experiments, followed by the monometallic cobalt and molybdenum catalysts, in this order of activity as referred to in the literature. A kinetic study was performed at 10.13 – 101.32 kPa NH3 and at four equidistant temperatures between 437 and 475 °C the data were adjusted to an LHHW-type model, which considered the desorption of nitrogen atoms from the active phase surface as the rate determining step (RDS). The regression analysis were carried out under an integral regime, using a minimization algorithm based on SLSQP. The physical meaning of the parameters adjusted in the kinetic model, such as the RDS rate constant (k₅) and the lumped adsorption constant of the quasi-equilibrated steps (α) was confirmed through their Arrhenius and Van't Hoff-type behavior (R² > 0.98), respectively. From an energetic perspective, the activation energy for cobalt, cobalt-molybdenum, and molybdenum was 115.2, 106.8, and 177.5 kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. With this evidence and considering the volcano shape described by the ammonia decomposition rate in relation to the metal composition ratio, the synergistic behavior of the system is clearly observed. However, since characterizations by XRD and TEM were inconclusive, the formation of intermetallic compounds should be still verified using HRTEM-EDS. From this point onwards, our objective is to incorporate parameters into the kinetic expressions that consider both compositional and structural elements and explore how these can maximize or influence H₂ production.

Keywords: CEDI, hydrogen carrier, LHHW, RDS

Procedia PDF Downloads 14

Authors: Robert Caulk

Abstract:

A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Aswathaman Vijayan, Manish Jha, Ullas Theertha

Abstract:

Climate change and Global warming have become an issue for both developed and developing countries and perhaps the biggest threat to the environment. We at ITC Limited believe that a company’s performance must be measured by its Triple Bottom Line contribution to building economic, social and environmental capital. This Triple Bottom Line strategy focuses on - Embedding sustainability in business practices, Investing in social development and Adopting a low carbon growth path with a cleaner environment approach. The Agri Business Division - ILTD operates in the tobacco crop growing regions of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka province of India. The Agri value chain of the company comprises of two distinct phases: First phase is Agricultural operations undertaken by ITC trained farmers and the second phase is Industrial operations which include marketing and processing of the agricultural produce. This research work covers the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) management strategy of ITC in the Agricultural operations undertaken by the farmers. The agriculture sector adds considerably to global GHG emissions through the use of carbon-based energies, use of fertilizers and other farming operations such as ploughing. In order to minimize the impact of farming operations on the environment, ITC has a taken a big leap in implementing system and process in reducing the GHG impact in farm value chain by partnering with the farming community. The company has undertaken a unique three-pronged approach for GHG management at the farm value chain: 1) GHG inventory at farm value chain: Different sources of GHG emission in the farm value chain were identified and quantified for the baseline year, as per the IPCC guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories. The major sources of emission identified are - emission due to nitrogenous fertilizer application during seedling production and main-field; emission due to diesel usage for farm machinery; emission due to fuel consumption and due to burning of crop residues. 2) Identification and implementation of technologies to reduce GHG emission: Various methodologies and technologies were identified for each GHG emission source and implemented at farm level. The identified methodologies are – reducing the consumption of chemical fertilizer usage at the farm through site-specific nutrient recommendation; Usage of sharp shovel for land preparation to reduce diesel consumption; implementation of energy conservation technologies to reduce fuel requirement and avoiding burning of crop residue by incorporation in the main field. These identified methodologies were implemented at farm level, and the GHG emission was quantified to understand the reduction in GHG emission. 3) Social and farm forestry for CO2 sequestration: In addition, the company encouraged social and farm forestry in the waste lands to convert it into green cover. The plantations are carried out with fast growing trees viz., Eucalyptus, Casuarina, and Subabul at the rate of 10,000 Ha of land per year. The above approach minimized considerable amount of GHG emission at the farm value chain benefiting farmers, community, and environment at a whole. In addition, the CO₂ stock created by social and farm forestry program has made the farm value chain to become environment-friendly.

Keywords: CO₂ sequestration, farm value chain, greenhouse gas, ITC limited

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Mohammad Anvari, Helen S. Joyner (Melito)

Abstract:

Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz is an oilseed crop currently used for the production of biofuels. However, the low price of diesel and gasoline has made camelina an unprofitable crop for farmers, leading to declining camelina production in the US. Hence, the ability to utilize camelina byproduct (defatted meal) after oil extraction would be a pivotal factor for promoting the economic value of the plant. Camelina defatted meal is rich in proteins and polysaccharides. The great diversity in the polysaccharide structural features provides a unique opportunity for use in food formulations as thickeners, gelling agents, emulsifiers, and stabilizers. There is currently a great degree of interest in the study of novel plant polysaccharides, as they can be derived from readily accessible sources and have potential application in a wide range of food formulations. However, there are no published studies on the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal, and its potential industrial applications remain largely underexploited. Rheological properties are a key functional feature of polysaccharides and are highly dependent on the material composition and molecular structure. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the rheological properties of the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal at different conditions to obtain insight on the molecular characteristics of the polysaccharide. Flow and dynamic mechanical behaviors were determined under different temperatures (5-50°C) and concentrations (1-6% w/v). Additionally, the zeta potential of the polysaccharide dispersion was measured at different pHs (2-11) and a biopolymer concentration of 0.05% (w/v). Shear rate sweep data revealed that the camelina polysaccharide displayed shear thinning (pseudoplastic) behavior, which is typical of polymer systems. The polysaccharide dispersion (1% w/v) showed no significant changes in viscosity with temperature, which makes it a promising ingredient in products requiring texture stability over a range of temperatures. However, the viscosity increased significantly with increased concentration, indicating that camelina polysaccharide can be used in food products at different concentrations to produce a range of textures. Dynamic mechanical spectra showed similar trends. The temperature had little effect on viscoelastic moduli. However, moduli were strongly affected by concentration: samples exhibited concentrated solution behavior at low concentrations (1-2% w/v) and weak gel behavior at higher concentrations (4-6% w/v). These rheological properties can be used for designing and modeling of liquid and semisolid products. Zeta potential affects the intensity of molecular interactions and molecular conformation and can alter solubility, stability, and eventually, the functionality of the materials as their environment changes. In this study, the zeta potential value significantly decreased from 0.0 to -62.5 as pH increased from 2 to 11, indicating that pH may affect the functional properties of the polysaccharide. The results obtained in the current study showed that camelina polysaccharide has significant potential for application in various food systems and can be introduced as a novel anionic thickening agent with unique properties.

Keywords: Camelina meal, polysaccharide, rheology, zeta potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: B. Philip, J. Littlewood, R. Radford, N. Evans, T. Whyman, D. P. Jones

Abstract:

UK buildings and energy infrastructures are heavily dependent on natural gas, a large proportion of which is used for domestic space heating. However, approximately half of the gas consumed in the UK is imported. Improving energy security and reducing carbon emissions are major government drivers for reducing gas dependency. In order to do so there needs to be a wholesale shift in the energy provision to householders without impacting on thermal comfort levels, convenience or cost of supply to the end user. Heat pumps are seen as a potential alternative in modern well insulated homes, however, can the same be said of older homes? A large proportion of housing stock in Britain was built prior to 1919. The age of the buildings bears testimony to the quality of construction; however, their thermal performance falls far below the minimum currently set by UK building standards. In recent years significant sums of money have been invested to improve energy efficiency and combat fuel poverty in some of the most deprived areas of Wales. Increasing energy efficiency of older properties remains a significant challenge, which cannot be achieved through insulation and air-tightness interventions alone, particularly when alterations to historically important architectural features of the building are not permitted. This paper investigates the energy demand of pre-1919 dwellings in a former Welsh mining village, the feasibility of meeting that demand using water from the disused mine workings to supply a district heat network and potential barriers to success of the scheme. The use of renewable solar energy generation and storage technologies, both thermal and electrical, to reduce the load and offset increased electricity demand, are considered. A wholistic surveying approach to provide a more accurate assessment of total household heat demand is proposed. Several surveying techniques, including condition surveys, air permeability, heat loss calculations, and thermography were employed to provide a clear picture of energy demand. Additional insulation can bring unforeseen consequences which are detrimental to the fabric of the building, potentially leading to accelerated dilapidation of the asset being ‘protected’. Increasing ventilation should be considered in parallel, to compensate for the associated reduction in uncontrolled infiltration. The effectiveness of thermal performance improvements are demonstrated and the detrimental effects of incorrect material choice and poor installation are highlighted. The findings show estimated heat demand to be in close correlation to household energy bills. Major areas of heat loss were identified such that improvements to building thermal performance could be targeted. The findings demonstrate that the use of heat pumps in older buildings is viable, provided sufficient improvement to thermal performance is possible. Addition of passive solar thermal and photovoltaic generation can help reduce the load and running cost for the householder. The results were used to predict future heat demand following energy efficiency improvements, thereby informing the size of heat pumps required.

Keywords: heat demand, heat pump, renewable energy, retrofit

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Kamlesh Shashikant Dave

Abstract:

The global financial crisis is rooted in the sub-prime crisis in U.S.A. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commission, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit check. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on the assumptions that housing price would continue to rise. Also the real estate bubble encouraged the demand for houses as financial assets .Banks and financial institutions later repackaged these debts with other high risk debts and sold them to worldwide investors creating financial instruments called collateral debt obligations (CDOs). With the rise in interest rate, mortgage payments rose and defaults among the subprime category of borrowers increased accordingly. Through the securitization of mortgage payments, a recession developed in the housing sector and consequently it was transmitted to the entire US economy and rest of the world. The financial credit crisis has moved the US and the global economy into recession. Indian economy has also affected by the spill over effects of the global financial crisis. Great saving habit among people, strong fundamentals, strong conservative and regulatory regime have saved Indian economy from going out of gear, though significant parts of the economy have slowed down. Industrial activity, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors decelerated. The service sector too, slow in construction, transport, trade, communication, hotels and restaurants sub sectors. The financial crisis has some adverse impact on the IT sector. Exports had declined in absolute terms in October. Higher inputs costs and dampened demand have dented corporate margins while the uncertainty surrounding the crisis has affected business confidence. To summarize, reckless subprime lending, loose monetary policy of US, expansion of financial derivatives beyond acceptable norms and greed of Wall Street has led to this exceptional global financial and economic crisis. Thus, the global credit crisis of 2008 highlights the need to redesign both the global and domestic financial regulatory systems not only to properly address systematic risk but also to support its proper functioning (i.e financial stability).Such design requires: 1) Well managed financial institutions with effective corporate governance and risk management system 2) Disclosure requirements sufficient to support market discipline. 3)Proper mechanisms for resolving problem institution and 4) Mechanisms to protect financial services consumers in the event of financial institutions failure.

Keywords: FIIs, BSE, sensex, global impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Maryam Ziaee, Himanshu Shee, Amrik Sohal

Abstract:

Big Data Analytics (BDA) in supply chain management has recently drawn the attention of academics and practitioners. Big data refers to a massive amount of data from different sources, in different formats, generated at high speed through transactions in business environments and supply chain networks. Traditional statistical tools and techniques find it difficult to analyse this massive data. BDA can assist organisations to capture, store, and analyse data specifically in the field of supply chain. Currently, there is a paucity of research on BDA in the pharmaceutical supply chain context. In this research, the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain was selected as the case study. This industry is highly significant since the right medicine must reach the right patients, at the right time, in right quantity, in good condition, and at the right price to save lives. However, drug shortages remain a substantial problem for hospitals across Australia with implications on patient care, staff resourcing, and expenditure. Furthermore, a massive volume and variety of data is generated at fast speed from multiple sources in pharmaceutical supply chain, which needs to be captured and analysed to benefit operational decisions at every stage of supply chain processes. As the pharmaceutical industry lags behind other industries in using BDA, it raises the question of whether the use of BDA can improve transparency among pharmaceutical supply chain by enabling the partners to make informed-decisions across their operational activities. This presentation explores the impacts of BDA on supply chain management. An exploratory qualitative approach was adopted to analyse data collected through interviews. This study also explores the BDA potential in the whole pharmaceutical supply chain rather than focusing on a single entity. Twenty semi-structured interviews were undertaken with top managers in fifteen organisations (five pharmaceutical manufacturers, five wholesalers/distributors, and five public hospital pharmacies) to investigate their views on the use of BDA. The findings revealed that BDA can enable pharmaceutical entities to have improved visibility over the whole supply chain and also the market; it enables entities, especially manufacturers, to monitor consumption and the demand rate in real-time and make accurate demand forecasts which reduce drug shortages. Timely and precise decision-making can allow the entities to source and manage their stocks more effectively. This can likely address the drug demand at hospitals and respond to unanticipated issues such as drug shortages. Earlier studies explore BDA in the context of clinical healthcare; however, this presentation investigates the benefits of BDA in the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain. Furthermore, this research enhances managers’ insight into the potentials of BDA at every stage of supply chain processes and helps to improve decision-making in their supply chain operations. The findings will turn the rhetoric of data-driven decision into a reality where the managers may opt for analytics for improved decision-making in the supply chain processes.

Keywords: big data analytics, data-driven decision, pharmaceutical industry, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Dominik Halstrup, Marlene Schriever

Abstract:

The industry, as one of the main energy consumer, is of critical importance along the way of transforming the energy system to Renewable Energies. The distributed character of the Energy Transition demands for further flexibility being introduced to the grid. In order to shed further light on the acceptance of Electric Energy Storage (ESS) from an industrial point of view, this study therefore examines the German manufacturing industry. The analysis in this paper uses data composed of a survey amongst 101 manufacturing companies in Germany. Being part of a two-stage research design, both qualitative and quantitative data was collected. Based on a literature review an acceptance concept was developed in the paper and four user-types identified: (Dedicated) User, Impeded User, Forced User and (Dedicated) Non-User and incorporated in the questionnaire. Both descriptive and bivariate analysis is deployed to identify the level of acceptance in the different organizations. After a factor analysis has been conducted, variables were grouped to form independent acceptance factors. Out of the 22 organizations that do show a positive attitude towards ESS, 5 have already implemented ESS and show a positive attitude towards ESS. They can be therefore considered ‘Dedicated Users’. The remaining 17 organizations have a positive attitude but have not implemented ESS yet. The results suggest that profitability plays an important role as well as load-management systems that are already in place. Surprisingly, 2 organizations have implemented ESS even though they have a negative attitude towards it. This is an example for a ‘Forced User’ where reasons of overriding importance or supporters with overriding authority might have forced the company to implement ESS. By far the biggest subset of the sample shows (critical) distance and can therefore be considered ‘(Dedicated) Non-Users’. The results indicate that the majority of the respondents have not thought ESS in their own organization through yet. For the majority of the sample one can therefore not speak of critical distance but rather a distance due to insufficient information and the perceived unprofitability. This paper identifies the relative state of acceptance of ESS in the manufacturing industry as well as current reasons for hindrance and perspectives for future growth of ESS in an industrial setting from a policy level. The interest that is currently generated by the media could be channeled and taken into a more substantial and individual discussion about ESS in an industrial setting. If the current perception of profitability could be addressed and communicated accordingly, ESS and their use in for instance cooperative business models could become a topic for more organizations in Germany and other parts of the world. As price mechanisms tend to favor existing technologies, policy makers need to further access the use of ESS and acknowledge the positive effects when integrated in an energy system. The subfields of generation, transmission and distribution become increasingly intertwined. New technologies and business models, such as ESS or cooperative arrangements entering the market, increase the number of stakeholders. Organizations need to find their place within this array of stakeholders.

Keywords: acceptance, energy storage solutions, German energy transition, manufacturing industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Shashi Mehta, Krishan Kumar Yadav

Abstract:

This paper presents an overview of issues pertaining to the conservation of the natural environment and factors affecting the coexistence of the forest, wildlife and people. As forests and wildlife together create the basis for economic, cultural and recreational spaces for overall well-being and life-support systems, the adverse impacts of increasing consumerism are only too evident. The IUCN predicts extinction of 41% of all amphibians and 26% of mammals. The major causes behind this threatened extinction are Deforestation, Dysfunctional governance, Climate Change, Pollution and Cataclysmic phenomena. Thus the intrinsic relationship between natural resources and wildlife needs to be understood in totality, not only for the eco-system but for humanity at large. To demonstrate this, forest areas in the Aravalis- the oldest mountain ranges of Asia—falling in the States of Haryana and Rajasthan, have been taken up for study. The Aravalis are characterized by extreme climatic conditions and dry deciduous forest cover on intermittent scattered hills. Extending across the districts of Gurgaon, Faridabad, Mewat, Mahendergarh, Rewari and Bhiwani, these ranges - with village common land on which the entire economy of the rural settlements depends - fall in the state of Haryana. Aravali ranges with diverse fauna and flora near Alwar town of state of Rajasthan also form part of NCR. Once, rich in biodiversity, the Aravalis played an important role in the sustainable co-existence of forest and people. However, with the advent of industrialization and unregulated urbanization, these ranges are facing deforestation, degradation and denudation. The causes are twofold, i.e. the need of the poor and the greed of the rich. People living in and around the Aravalis are mainly poor and eke out a living by rearing live-stock. With shrinking commons, they depend entirely upon these hills for grazing, fuel, NTFP, medicinal plants and even drinking water. But at the same time, the pressure of indiscriminate urbanization and industrialization in these hills fulfils the demands of the rich and powerful in collusion with Government agencies. The functionaries of federal and State Governments play largely a negative role supporting commercial interests. Additionally, planting of a non- indigenous species like prosopis juliflora across the ranges has resulted in the extinction of almost all the indigenous species. The wildlife in the area is also threatened because of the lack of safe corridors and suitable habitat. In this scenario, the participatory role of different stakeholders such as NGOs, civil society and local community in the management of forests becomes crucial not only for conservation but also for the economic wellbeing of the local people. Exclusion of villagers from protection and conservation efforts - be it designing, implementing or monitoring and evaluating could prove counterproductive. A strategy needs to be evolved, wherein Government agencies be made responsible by putting relevant legislation in place along with nurturing and promoting the traditional wisdom and ethics of local communities in the protection and conservation of forests and wild life in the Aravali ranges of States of Haryana and Rajasthan of the National Capital Region, Delhi.

Keywords: deforestation, ecosystem, governance, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Debarpita Pande

Abstract:

On 22nd May 2013 Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on his visit to Pakistan tabled a proposal for connecting Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with the south-western Pakistani seaport of Gwadar via the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (hereinafter referred to as CPEC). The project, popularly termed as 'One Belt One Road' will encompass within it a connectivity component including a 3000-kilometre road, railways and oil pipeline from Kashgar to Gwadar port along with an international airport and a deep sea port. Superficially, this may look like a 'game changer' for Pakistan and other countries of South Asia but this article by doctrinal method of research will unearth some serious flaws in it, which may change the entire economic system of this region heavily affecting the socio-economic conditions of South Asia, further complicating the complete geopolitical situation of the region disturbing the world economic stability. The paper besets with a logical analyzation of the socio-economic issues arising out of this project with an emphasis on its impact on the Pakistani and Indian economy due to Chinese dominance, serious tension in international relations, security issues, arms race, political and provincial concerns. The research paper further aims to study the impact of huge burden of loan given by China towards this project where Pakistan already suffers from persistent debts in the face of declining foreign currency reserves along with that the sovereignty of Pakistan will also be at stake as the entire economy of the country will be held hostage by China. The author compares this situation with the fallout from projects in Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and several countries of Africa, all of which are now facing huge debt risks brought by Chinese investments. The entire economic balance will be muddled by the increment in Pakistan’s demand of raw materials resulting to the import of the same from China, which will lead to exorbitant price-hike and limited availability. CPEC will also create Chinese dominance over the international movement of goods that will take place between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans and hence jeopardising the entire economic balance of South Asia along with Middle Eastern countries like Dubai. Moreover, the paper also analyses the impact of CPEC in the context of international unrest and arms race between Pakistan and India as well as India and China due to border disputes and Chinese surveillance. The paper also examines the global change in economic dynamics in international trade that CPEC will create in the light of U.S.-China relationship. The article thus reflects the grave consequences of CPEC on the international economy, security and bilateral relations, which surpasses the positive impacts of it. The author lastly suggests for more transparency and proper diplomatic planning in the execution of this mega project, which can be a cause of economic complexity in international trade in near future.

Keywords: China, CPEC, international trade, Pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Min Wang, Hui Tian

Abstract:

Health promotion of high school students is essential for the construction of ‘Healthy China’, and increasing high school students’ physical activity is a must for their health promotion. School plays a crucial role in increasing high school students’ physical activity. Therefore, to have a comprehensive command of the school physical activity promotion strategies is of great significance for the health promotion of high school students in China and will shed some light on physical activity promotion worldwide. Literature review and interview survey are the main methods adopted for this research. It has been found that reforms of P.E. classes, improving the overall quality of P.E. teachers, and construction of school fields and facilities are among the major strategies to promote students’ physical activities. Even though it has been stipulated that primary and middle school students should take 3-4 times of P.E. classes per week, the execution is greatly influenced by the exam-oriented educational system. Randomly canceling P.E. classes or taking up the time to study other subjects is common, so it is difficult to guarantee the quantity of P.E. classes. According to national surveys, only 20%-40% of schools have 3-4 times of P.E. classes per week. In order to reduce the hindering effects of the exam-oriented educational system, a physical education test is included in the senior middle school entrance exam. The exam items include 1000m run for boys, 800m run for girls, and the basic skills for basketball/football/volleyball. The scores of the physical education test will greatly influence the admission of senior middle schools. China is now developing the ‘campus football’ policy and has established 20,000 football featured schools by 2017. Especially in these schools, football has become an important part of the students’ P.E. classes and a major means to promote students’ physical activity. As the Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing in 2022, China has promoted the ‘winter sports for all’ movement. The aim is to encourage 300 million people to winter sports, and the high school students are among the most potential participants. The primary and middle schools in Beijing have introduced winter sports to their P.E. curriculum, providing opportunities for the students to experience ice hockey and curling. Some Winter Olympics champions also go to the schools to popularize winter sports among the students. This greatly adds variety to the students’ physical activity regimen at school. In November 2017, seven ministries, including the General Administration of Sport of China and Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China, release Youth Sport Promotion Strategy. The strategy stipulates to strengthen the construction of youth sport facilities and implement the cultivation plan for P.E. teachers. It also emphasizes that school sport facilities should be open to students during holidays and vacations for free or at an affordable price. Overall speaking, the Chinese government stresses the importance of youth physical activity promotion and has issued a series of related policies and strategies, but the implementation still needs improvement.

Keywords: China, physical activity, promotion, school

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Kathleen Frances Haigh, Mieke Nieder-Heitmann, Somayeh Farzad, Mohsen Ali Mandegari, Johann Ferdinand Gorgens

Abstract:

Lignocellulose can be converted to a range of biochemicals and biofuels. Where this is derived from agricultural waste, issues of competition with food are virtually eliminated. One such source of lignocellulose is the South African sugar industry. Lignocellulose could be accessed by changes to the current farming practices and investments in more efficient boilers. The South African sugar industry is struggling due to falling sugar prices and increasing costs and it is proposed that annexing a biorefinery to a sugar mill will broaden the product range and improve viability. Process simulations of the selected chemicals were generated using Aspen Plus®. It was envisaged that a biorefinery would be annexed to a typical South African sugar mill. Bagasse would be diverted from the existing boilers to the biorefinery and mixed with harvest residues. This biomass would provide the feedstock for the biorefinery and the process energy for the biorefinery and sugar mill. Thus, in all scenarios a portion of the biomass was diverted to a new efficient combined heat and power plant (CHP). The Aspen Plus® simulations provided the mass and energy balance data to carry out an economic assessment of each scenarios. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and minimum selling price (MSP) was calculated for each scenario. As a starting point scenarios were generated to investigate the production of ethanol, ethanol and lactic acid, ethanol and furfural, butanol, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch syncrude. The bypass to the CHP plant is a useful indicator of the energy demands of the chemical processes. An iterative approach was used to identify a suitable bypass because increasing this value had the combined effect of increasing the amount of energy available and reducing the capacity of the chemical plant. Bypass values ranged from 30% for syncrude production to 50% for combined ethanol and furfural production. A hurdle rate of 15.7% was selected for the IRR. The butanol, combined ethanol and furfural, or the Fischer-Tropsch syncrude scenarios are unsuitable for investment with IRRs of 4.8%, 7.5% and 11.5% respectively. This provides valuable insights into research opportunities. For example furfural from sugarcane bagasse is an established process although the integration of furfural production with ethanol is less well understood. The IRR for the ethanol scenario was 14.7%, which is below the investment criteria, but given the technological maturity it may still be considered for investment. The scenarios which met the investment criteria were the combined ethanol and lactic acid, and the methanol scenarios with IRRs of 20.5% and 16.7%, respectively. These assessments show that the production of biochemicals from lignocellulose can be commercially viable. In addition, this assessment have provided valuable insights for research to improve the commercial viability of additional chemicals and scenarios. This has led to further assessments of the production of itaconic acid, succinic acid, citric acid, xylitol, polyhydroxybutyrate, polyethylene, glucaric acid and glutamic acid.

Keywords: biorefineries, sugar mill, methanol, ethanol

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Radik D. Aglyamov, Alexander K. Naumov, Alexey A. Shavelev, Oleg A. Morozov, Arsenij D. Shishkin, Yury P.Brodnikovsky, Alexander A.Karabutov, Alexander A. Oraevsky, Vadim V. Semashko

Abstract:

The development of medical optoacoustic tomography with the using human blood as endogenic contrast agent is constrained by the lack of reliable, easy-to-use and inexpensive sources of high-power pulsed laser radiation in the spectral region of 750-900 nm [1-2]. Currently used titanium-sapphire, alexandrite lasers or optical parametric light oscillators do not provide the required and stable output characteristics, they are structurally complex, and their cost is up to half the price of diagnostic optoacoustic systems. Here we are developing the lasers based on Cr:LiCaAlF6 crystals which are free of abovementioned disadvantages and provides intensive ten’s ns-range tunable laser radiation at specific absorption bands of oxy- (~840 nm) and -deoxyhemoglobin (~757 nm) in the blood. Cr:LiCAF (с=3 at.%) crystals were grown in Kazan Federal University by the vertical directional crystallization (Bridgman technique) in graphite crucibles in a fluorinating atmosphere at argon overpressure (P=1500 hPa) [3]. The laser elements have cylinder shape with the diameter of 8 mm and 90 mm in length. The direction of the optical axis of the crystal was normal to the cylinder generatrix, which provides the π-polarized laser action correspondent to maximal stimulated emission cross-section. The flat working surfaces of the active elements were polished and parallel to each other with an error less than 10”. No any antireflection coating was applied. The Q-switched master oscillator-power amplifiers laser system (MOPA) with the dual-Xenon flashlamp pumping scheme in diffuse-reflectivity close-coupled head were realized. A specially designed laser cavity, consisting of dielectric highly reflective reflectors with a 2 m-curvature radius, a flat output mirror, a polarizer and Q-switch sell, makes it possible to operate sequentially in a circle (50 ns - laser one pulse after another) at wavelengths of 757 and 840 nm. The programmable pumping system from Tomowave Laser LLC (Russia) provided independent to each pulses (up to 250 J at 180 μs) pumping to equalize the laser radiation intensity at these wavelengths. The MOPA laser operates at 10 Hz pulse repetition rate with the output energy up to 210 mJ. Taking into account the limitations associated with physiological movements and other characteristics of patient tissues, the duration of laser pulses and their energy allows molecular and functional high-contrast imaging to depths of 5-6 cm with a spatial resolution of at least 1 mm. Highly likely the further comprehensive design of laser allows improving the output properties and realizing better spatial resolution of medical multispectral optoacoustic tomography systems.

Keywords: medical optoacoustic, endogenic contrast agent, multiwavelength tunable pulse lasers, MOPA laser system

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Amirah Azzeri, Fatiha H. Shabaruddin, Scott A. McDonald, Rosmawati Mohamed, Maznah Dahlui

Abstract:

Objective: A scaled-up treatment cascade with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is necessary to achieve global WHO targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Malaysia. Recently, limited access to Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir (SOF/DAC) is available through compulsory licensing, with future access to Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) expected through voluntary licensing due to recent agreements. SOF/VEL has superior clinical outcomes, particularly for cirrhotic stages, but has higher drug acquisition costs compared to SOF/DAC. It has been proposed that a stratified treatment cascade might be the most cost-efficient approach for Malaysia whereby all HCV patients are treated with SOF/DAC except for patients with cirrhosis who are treated with SOF/VEL. This study aimed to conduct a five-year budget impact analysis from the provider perspective of the proposed stratified treatment cascade for HCV treatment in Malaysia. Method: A disease progression model that was developed based on model-predicted HCV epidemiology data in Malaysia was used for the analysis, where all HCV patients in scenario A were treated with SOF/DAC for all disease stages while in scenario B, SOF/DAC was used only for non-cirrhotic patients and SOF/VEL was used for the cirrhotic patients. The model projections estimated the annual numbers of patients in care and the numbers of patients to be initiated on DAA treatment nationally. Healthcare costs associated with DAA therapy and disease stage monitoring was included to estimate the downstream cost implications. For scenario B, the estimated treatment uptake of SOF/VEL for cirrhotic patients were 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% and 100% for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Healthcare costs were estimated based on standard clinical pathways for DAA treatment described in recent guidelines. All costs were reported in US dollars (conversion rate US$1=RM4.09, the price year 2018). Scenario analysis was conducted for 5% and 10% reduction of SOF/VEL acquisition cost anticipated from the competitive market pricing of generic DAA in Malaysia. Results: The stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL in Scenario B was found to be cost-saving compared to Scenario A. A substantial portion of the cost reduction was due to the costs associated with DAA therapy which resulted in USD 40 thousand (year 1) to USD 443 thousand (year 5) savings annually, with cumulative savings of USD 1.1 million after 5 years. Cost reductions for disease stage monitoring were seen in year three onwards which resulted in cumulative savings of USD 1.1 thousand. Scenario analysis estimated cumulative savings of USD 1.24 to USD 1.35 million when the acquisition cost of SOF/VEL was reduced. Conclusion: A stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL was expected to be cost-saving and can results in a budget impact reduction in overall healthcare expenditure in Malaysia compared to treatment with SOF/DAC. The better clinical efficacy with SOF/VEL is expected to halt patients’ HCV disease progression and may reduce downstream costs of treating advanced disease stages. The findings of this analysis may be useful to inform healthcare policies for HCV treatment in Malaysia.

Keywords: Malaysia, direct acting antiviral, compulsory licensing, voluntary licensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Tamal Roy, Anuradha Bhat

Abstract:

Cognitive abilities aid fishes in foraging, avoiding predators & locating mates. Factors like predation pressure & habitat complexity govern learning & memory in fishes. This study aims to compare spatial learning & memory across four natural populations of zebrafish. Zebrafish, a small cyprinid inhabits a diverse range of freshwater habitats & this makes it amenable to studies investigating role of native environment in spatial cognitive abilities. Four populations were collected across India from waterbodies with contrasting ecological conditions. Habitat complexity of the water-bodies was evaluated as a combination of channel substrate diversity and diversity of vegetation. Experiments were conducted on populations under controlled laboratory conditions. A square shaped spatial testing arena (maze) was constructed for testing the performance of adult zebrafish. The square tank consisted of an inner square shaped layer with the edges connected to the diagonal ends of the tank-walls by connections thereby forming four separate chambers. Each of the four chambers had a main door in the centre. Each chamber had three sections separated by two windows. A removable coloured window-pane (red, yellow, green or blue) identified each main door. A food reward associated with an artificial plant was always placed inside the left-hand section of the red-door chamber. The position of food-reward and plant within the red-door chamber was fixed. A test fish would have to explore the maze by taking turns and locate the food inside the right-side section of the red-door chamber. Fishes were sorted from each population stock and kept individually in separate containers for identification. At a time, a test fish was released into the arena and allowed 20 minutes to explore in order to find the food-reward. In this way, individual fishes were trained through the maze to locate the food reward for eight consecutive days. The position of red door, with the plant and the reward, was shuffled every day. Following training, an intermission of four days was given during which the fishes were not subjected to trials. Post-intermission, the fishes were re-tested on the 13th day following the same protocol for their ability to remember the learnt task. Exploratory tendencies and latency of individuals to explore on 1st day of training, performance time across trials, and number of mistakes made each day were recorded. Additionally, mechanism used by individuals to solve the maze each day was analyzed across populations. Fishes could be expected to use algorithm (sequence of turns) or associative cues in locating the food reward. Individuals of populations did not differ significantly in latencies and tendencies to explore. No relationship was found between exploration and learning across populations. High habitat-complexity populations had higher rates of learning & stronger memory while low habitat-complexity populations had lower rates of learning and much reduced abilities to remember. High habitat-complexity populations used associative cues more than algorithm for learning and remembering while low habitat-complexity populations used both equally. The study, therefore, helped understand the role of natural ecology in explaining variations in spatial learning abilities across populations.

Keywords: algorithm, associative cue, habitat complexity, population, spatial learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: David Shengelia, Tamara Tsutsunava, Manana Togonidze, Giorgi Chichinadze, Giorgi Beridze

Abstract:

Orthoclase gabbro intrusive exposes in the Eastern part of the Dzirula crystalline massif of the Central Transcaucasian microcontinent. It is intruded in the Baikal quartz-diorite gneisses as a stock-like body. The intrusive is characterized by heterogeneity of rock composition: variability of mineral content and irregular distribution of rock-forming minerals. The rocks are represented by pyroxenites, gabbro-pyroxenites and gabbros of different composition – K-feldspar, pyroxene-hornblende and biotite bearing varieties. Scientific views on the genesis and age of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive are considerably different. Based on the long-term pertogeochemical and geochronological investigations of the intrusive with such an extraordinary composition the authors came to the following conclusions. According to geological and geophysical data, it is stated that in the Saurian orogeny horizontal tectonic layering of the Earth’s crust of the Central Transcaucasian microcontinent took place. That is precisely this fact that explains the formation of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive. During the tectonic doubling of the Earth’s crust of the mentioned microcontinent thick tectonic nappes of mafic and sialic layers overlap the sialic basement (‘inversion’ layer). The initial magma of the intrusive was of high-temperature basite-ultrabasite composition, crystallization products of which are pyroxenites and gabbro-pyroxenites. Petrochemical data of the magma attest to its formation in the Upper mantle and partially in the ‘crustal astenolayer’. Then, a newly formed overheated dry magma with phenocrysts of clinopyrocxene and basic plagioclase intruded into the ‘inversion’ layer. From the new medium it was enriched by the volatile components causing the selective melting and as a result the formation of leucocratic quartz-feldspar material. At the same time in the basic magma intensive transformation of pyroxene to hornblende was going on. The basic magma partially mixed with the newly formed acid magma. These different magmas intruded first into the allochthonous basite layer without its significant transformation and then into the upper sialic layer and crystallized here at a depth of 7-10 km. By petrochemical data the newly formed leucocratic granite magma belongs to the S type granites, but the above mentioned mixed magma – to H (hybrid) type. During the final stage of magmatic processes the gabbroic rocks impregnated with high-temperature feldspar-bearing material forming anorthoclase or orthoclase. Thus, so called ‘orthoclase gabbro’ includes the rocks of various genetic groups: 1. protolith of gabbroic intrusive; 2. hybrid rock – K-feldspar gabbro and 3. leucocratic quartz-feldspar bearing rock. Petrochemical and geochemical data obtained from the hybrid gabbro and from the inrusive protolith differ from each other. For the identification of petrogenetic model of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive formation LA-ICP-MS- U-Pb zircon dating has been conducted in all three genetic types of gabbro. The zircon age of the protolith – mean 221.4±1.9 Ma and of hybrid K-feldspar gabbro – mean 221.9±2.2 Ma, records crystallization time of the intrusive, but the zircon age of quartz-feldspar bearing rocks – mean 323±2.9 Ma, as well as the inherited age (323±9, 329±8.3, 332±10 and 335±11 Ma) of hybrid K-feldspar gabbro corresponds to the formation age of Late Variscan granitoids widespread in the Dzirula crystalline massif.

Keywords: The Caucasus, isotope dating, orthoclase-bearing gabbro, petrogenetic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Satish Kumar, Nisha Goyal

Abstract:

In the stock market, individual investors exhibit different kinds of behaviour. Traditional finance is built on the notion of 'homo economics', which states that humans always make perfectly rational choices to maximize their wealth and minimize risk. That is, traditional finance has concern for how investors should behave rather than how actual investors are behaving. Behavioural finance provides the explanation for this phenomenon. Although finance has been studied for thousands of years, behavioural finance is an emerging field that combines the behavioural or psychological aspects with conventional economic and financial theories to provide explanations on how emotions and cognitive factors influence investors’ behaviours. These emotions and cognitive factors are known as behavioural biases. Because of these biases, investors make irrational investment decisions. Besides, the emotional and cognitive factors, the social influence of media as well as friends, relatives and colleagues also affect investment decisions. Psychological factors influence individual investors’ investment decision making, but few studies have used qualitative methods to understand these factors. The aim of this study is to explore the behavioural factors or biases that affect individuals’ investment decision making. For the purpose of this exploratory study, an in-depth interview method was used because it provides much more exhaustive information and a relaxed atmosphere in which people feel more comfortable to provide information. Twenty investment advisors having a minimum 5 years’ experience in securities firms were interviewed. In this study, thematic content analysis was used to analyse interview transcripts. Thematic content analysis process involves analysis of transcripts, coding and identification of themes from data. Based on the analysis we categorized the statements of advisors into various themes. Past market returns and volatility; preference for safe returns; tendency to believe they are better than others; tendency to divide their money into different accounts/assets; tendency to hold on to loss-making assets; preference to invest in familiar securities; tendency to believe that past events were predictable; tendency to rely on the reference point; tendency to rely on other sources of information; tendency to have regret for making past decisions; tendency to have more sensitivity towards losses than gains; tendency to rely on own skills; tendency to buy rising stocks with the expectation that this rise will continue etc. are some of the major concerns showed by experts about investors. The findings of the study revealed 13 biases such as overconfidence bias, disposition effect, familiarity bias, framing effect, anchoring bias, availability bias, self-attribution bias, representativeness, mental accounting, hindsight bias, regret aversion, loss aversion and herding bias/media biases present in Indian investors. These biases have a negative connotation because they produce a distortion in the calculation of an outcome. These biases are classified under three categories such as cognitive errors, emotional biases and social interaction. The findings of this study may assist both financial service providers and researchers to understand the various psychological biases of individual investors in investment decision making. Additionally, individual investors will also be aware of the behavioural biases that will aid them to make sensible and efficient investment decisions.

Keywords: financial advisors, individual investors, investment decisions, psychological biases, qualitative thematic content analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 150