Search results for: stock prediction

Authors: Kanokwan Chancharoenchai

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Economic growth can be considered as an important element of countries’ development process. For developing countries, like Thailand, to ensure the continuous growth of the economy, the Thai government usually implements various policies to stimulate economic growth. They may take the form of fiscal, monetary, trade, and other policies. Because of these different aspects, understanding factors relating to economic growth could allow the government to introduce the proper plan for the future economic stimulating scheme. Consequently, this issue has caught interest of not only policymakers but also academics. This study, therefore, investigates explanatory variables for economic growth in Thailand from 2005 to 2017 with a total of 52 quarters. The findings would contribute to the field of economic growth and become helpful information to policymakers. The investigation is estimated throughout the production function with non-linear Cobb-Douglas equation. The rate of growth is indicated by the change of GDP in the natural logarithmic form. The relevant factors included in the estimation cover three traditional means of production and implicit effects, such as human capital, international activity and technological transfer from developed countries. Besides, this investigation takes the internal and external instabilities into account as proxied by the unobserved inflation estimation and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Thai baht, respectively. The unobserved inflation series are obtained from the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model, while the unobserved REER of Thai baht is gathered from naive OLS-GARCH(1,1) model. According to empirical results, the AR(|2|) equation which includes seven significant variables, namely capital stock, labor, the imports of capital goods, trade openness, the REER of Thai baht uncertainty, one previous GDP, and the world financial crisis in 2009 dummy, presents the most suitable model. The autoregressive model is assumed constant estimator that would somehow cause the unbias. However, this is not the case of the recursive coefficient model from the state space model that allows the transition of coefficients. With the powerful state space model, it provides the productivity or effect of each significant factor more in detail. The state coefficients are estimated based on the AR(|2|) with the exception of the one previous GDP and the 2009 world financial crisis dummy. The findings shed the light that those factors seem to be stable through time since the occurrence of the world financial crisis together with the political situation in Thailand. These two events could lower the confidence in the Thai economy. Moreover, state coefficients highlight the sluggish rate of machinery replacement and quite low technology of capital goods imported from abroad. The Thai government should apply proactive policies via taxation and specific credit policy to improve technological advancement, for instance. Another interesting evidence is the issue of trade openness which shows the negative transition effect along the sample period. This could be explained by the loss of price competitiveness to imported goods, especially under the widespread implementation of free trade agreement. The Thai government should carefully handle with regulations and the investment incentive policy by focusing on strengthening small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: autoregressive model, economic growth, state space model, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Andleeb Zahra, Itrat Rubab, Sumaira Malik, Amina Khan, Muhammad Jawad Khan, M. Qaiser Fatmi

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Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Recent studies have highlighted the role of miRNA in disease pathology, indicating its potential use in an early diagnostic tool. miRNAs are small, double stranded, non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by deregulating mRNAs. miRNAs play important roles in modifying various cellular processes such as cell growth, differentiation, apoptosis, and immune response. Dis-regulated expression of miRNAs is known to affect the cell growth, and this may function as tumor suppressors or oncogenes in various cancers. Objectives: The main objectives of this study were to characterize the extracellular miRNAs involved in oral cancer (OC) to assist early detection of cancer as well as to propose a list of genes that can potentially be used as biomarkers of OC. We used gene expression data by microarrays already available in literature. Materials and Methods: In the first step, a total of 318 miRNAs involved in oral carcinoma were shortlisted followed by the prediction of their target genes. Simultaneously, the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of oral carcinoma from all experiments were identified. The common genes between lists of DEGs of OC based on experimentally proven data and target genes of each miRNA were identified. These common genes are the targets of specific miRNA, which is involved in OC. Finally, a list of genes was generated which may be used as biomarker of OC. Results and Conclusion: In results, we included some of pathways in cancer to show the change in gene expression under the control of specific miRNA. Ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) provided a list of major biomarkers like CDH2, CDK7 and functional enrichment analysis identified the role of miRNA in major pathways like cell adhesion molecules pathway affected by cancer. We observed that at least 25 genes are regulated by maximum number of miRNAs, and thereby, they can be used as biomarkers of OC. To better understand the role of miRNA with respect to their target genes further experiments are required, and our study provides a platform to better understand the miRNA-OC relationship at genomics level.

Keywords: biomarkers, gene expression, miRNA, oral carcinoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Mariangela Viviani, Daniele Germano, Simone Colace, Agostino Forestiero, Giuseppe Papuzzo, Sara Laurita

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Nowadays, people spend most of their time in closed environments, in offices, or at home. Therefore, secure and highly livable environmental conditions are needed to reduce the probability of aerial viruses spreading. Also, to lower the human impact on the planet, it is important to reduce energy consumption. Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the major part of energy consumption in buildings [1]. Devising systems to control and regulate the airflow is, therefore, essential for energy efficiency. Moreover, an optimal setting for thermal comfort and air quality is essential for people’s well-being, at home or in offices, and increases productivity. Thanks to the features of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools and techniques, it is possible to design innovative systems with: (i) Improved monitoring and prediction accuracy; (ii) Enhanced decision-making and mitigation strategies; (iii) Real-time air quality information; (iv) Increased efficiency in data analysis and processing; (v) Advanced early warning systems for air pollution events; (vi) Automated and cost-effective m onitoring network; and (vii) A better understanding of air quality patterns and trends. We propose AIR SAFE, an IoT-based infrastructure designed to optimize air quality and thermal comfort in indoor environments leveraging AI tools. AIR SAFE employs a network of smart sensors collecting indoor and outdoor data to be analyzed in order to take any corrective measures to ensure the occupants’ wellness. The data are analyzed through AI algorithms able to predict the future levels of temperature, relative humidity, and CO₂ concentration [2]. Based on these predictions, AIR SAFE takes actions, such as opening/closing the window or the air conditioner, to guarantee a high level of thermal comfort and air quality in the environment. In this contribution, we present the results from the AI algorithm we have implemented on the first s et o f d ata c ollected i n a real environment. The results were compared with other models from the literature to validate our approach.

Keywords: air quality, internet of things, artificial intelligence, smart home

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

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Authors: Lexi Li, Vanessa H. K. Pang

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This study aims to demonstrate how native and learner corpora can be used to enhance modal verb treatment in EFL textbooks in mainland China. It contributes to a corpus-informed and learner-centered design of grammar presentation in EFL textbooks that enhances the authenticity and appropriateness of textbook language for target learners. The linguistic focus is will, would, can, could, may, might, shall, should, must. The native corpus is the spoken component of BNC2014 (hereafter BNCS2014). The spoken part is chosen because pedagogical purpose of the textbooks is communication-oriented. Using the standard query option of CQPweb, 5% of each of the nine modals was sampled from BNCS2014. The learner corpus is the POS-tagged Ten-thousand English Compositions of Chinese Learners (TECCL). All the essays under the 'secondary school' section were selected. A series of five secondary coursebooks comprise the textbook corpus. All the data in both the learner and the textbook corpora are retrieved through the concordance functions of WordSmith Tools (version, 5.0). Data analysis was divided into two parts. The first part compared the patterns of modal verbs in the textbook corpus and BNC2014 with respect to distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions to examine whether the textbooks reflect the authentic use of English. Secondly, the learner corpus was analyzed in terms of the use (distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions) and the misuse (syntactic errors, e.g., she can sings*.) of the nine modal verbs to uncover potential difficulties that confront learners. The analysis of distribution indicates several discrepancies between the textbook corpus and BNCS2014. The first four most frequent modal verbs in BNCS2014 are can, would, will, could, while can, will, should, could are the top four in the textbooks. Most strikingly, there is an unusually high proportion of can (41.1%) in the textbooks. The results on different meanings shows that will, would and must are the most problematic. For example, for will, the textbooks contain 20% more occurrences of 'volition' and 20% less of 'prediction' than those in BNCS2014. Regarding co-occurring structures, the textbooks over-represented the structure 'modal +do' across the nine modal verbs. Another major finding is that the structure of 'modal +have done' that frequently co-occur with could, would, should, and must is underused in textbooks. Besides, these four modal verbs are the most difficult for learners, as the error analysis shows. This study demonstrates how the synergy of native and learner corpora can be harnessed to improve EFL textbook presentation of modal verbs in a way that textbooks can provide not only authentic language used in natural discourse but also appropriate design tailed for the needs of target learners.

Keywords: English as Foreign Language, EFL textbooks, learner corpus, modal verbs, native corpus

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Authors: Shashi Mehta, Krishan Kumar Yadav

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This paper presents an overview of issues pertaining to the conservation of the natural environment and factors affecting the coexistence of the forest, wildlife and people. As forests and wildlife together create the basis for economic, cultural and recreational spaces for overall well-being and life-support systems, the adverse impacts of increasing consumerism are only too evident. The IUCN predicts extinction of 41% of all amphibians and 26% of mammals. The major causes behind this threatened extinction are Deforestation, Dysfunctional governance, Climate Change, Pollution and Cataclysmic phenomena. Thus the intrinsic relationship between natural resources and wildlife needs to be understood in totality, not only for the eco-system but for humanity at large. To demonstrate this, forest areas in the Aravalis- the oldest mountain ranges of Asia—falling in the States of Haryana and Rajasthan, have been taken up for study. The Aravalis are characterized by extreme climatic conditions and dry deciduous forest cover on intermittent scattered hills. Extending across the districts of Gurgaon, Faridabad, Mewat, Mahendergarh, Rewari and Bhiwani, these ranges - with village common land on which the entire economy of the rural settlements depends - fall in the state of Haryana. Aravali ranges with diverse fauna and flora near Alwar town of state of Rajasthan also form part of NCR. Once, rich in biodiversity, the Aravalis played an important role in the sustainable co-existence of forest and people. However, with the advent of industrialization and unregulated urbanization, these ranges are facing deforestation, degradation and denudation. The causes are twofold, i.e. the need of the poor and the greed of the rich. People living in and around the Aravalis are mainly poor and eke out a living by rearing live-stock. With shrinking commons, they depend entirely upon these hills for grazing, fuel, NTFP, medicinal plants and even drinking water. But at the same time, the pressure of indiscriminate urbanization and industrialization in these hills fulfils the demands of the rich and powerful in collusion with Government agencies. The functionaries of federal and State Governments play largely a negative role supporting commercial interests. Additionally, planting of a non- indigenous species like prosopis juliflora across the ranges has resulted in the extinction of almost all the indigenous species. The wildlife in the area is also threatened because of the lack of safe corridors and suitable habitat. In this scenario, the participatory role of different stakeholders such as NGOs, civil society and local community in the management of forests becomes crucial not only for conservation but also for the economic wellbeing of the local people. Exclusion of villagers from protection and conservation efforts - be it designing, implementing or monitoring and evaluating could prove counterproductive. A strategy needs to be evolved, wherein Government agencies be made responsible by putting relevant legislation in place along with nurturing and promoting the traditional wisdom and ethics of local communities in the protection and conservation of forests and wild life in the Aravali ranges of States of Haryana and Rajasthan of the National Capital Region, Delhi.

Keywords: deforestation, ecosystem, governance, urbanization

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Authors: Zainab S. Ahmed, Mohammed S. Ali, Nadia A. Elshiekh, Sami Adam Ibrahim, Ghada M. El-Tayeb, Ahmed H. Elsadig, Rihab A. Omer, Sofia B. Mohamed

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Maple syrup urine (MSUD) is an autosomal recessive disease that causes a deficiency in the enzyme branched-chain alpha-keto acid (BCKA) dehydrogenase. The development of disease has been associated with SNPs in the DBT gene. Despite that, the computational analysis of SNPs in coding and noncoding and their functional impacts on protein level still remains unknown. Hence, in this study, we carried out a comprehensive in silico analysis of missense that was predicted to have a harmful influence on DBT structure and function. In this study, eight different in silico prediction algorithms; SIFT, PROVEAN, MutPred, SNP&GO, PhD-SNP, PANTHER, I-Mutant 2.0 and MUpo were used for screening nsSNPs in DBT including. Additionally, to understand the effect of mutations in the strength of the interactions that bind protein together the ELASPIC servers were used. Finally, the 3D structure of DBT was formed using Mutation3D and Chimera servers respectively. Our result showed that a total of 15 nsSNPs confirmed by 4 software (R301C, R376H, W84R, S268F, W84C, F276C, H452R, R178H, I355T, V191G, M444T, T174A, I200T, R113H, and R178C) were found damaging and can lead to a shift in DBT gene structure. Moreover, we found 7 nsSNPs located on the 2-oxoacid_dh catalytic domain, 5 nsSNPs on the E_3 binding domain and 3 nsSNPs on the Biotin Domain. So these nsSNPs may alter the putative structure of DBT’s domain. Furthermore, we detected all these nsSNPs are on the core residues of the protein and have the ability to change the stability of the protein. Additionally, we found W84R, S268F, and M444T have high significance, and they affected Leucine, Isoleucine, and Valine, which reduces or disrupt the function of BCKD complex, E2-subunit which the DBT gene encodes. In conclusion, based on our extensive in-silico analysis, we report 15 nsSNPs that have possible association with protein deteriorating and disease-causing abilities. These candidate SNPs can aid in future studies on Maple Syrup Urine Disease type II base in the genetic level.

Keywords: DBT gene, ELASPIC, in silico analysis, UCSF chimer

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Authors: John K. Avor, Choong-Koo Chang

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The transfer of electrical loads at power generation stations from Standby Auxiliary Transformer (SAT) to Unit Auxiliary Transformer (UAT) and vice versa is through a fast bus transfer scheme. Fast bus transfer is a time-critical application where the transfer process depends on various parameters, thus transfer schemes apply advance algorithms to ensure power supply reliability and continuity. In a nuclear power generation station, supply continuity is essential, especially for critical class 1E electrical loads. Bus transfers must, therefore, be executed accurately within 4 to 10 cycles in order to achieve safety system requirements. However, the main problem is that there are instances where transfer schemes scrambled due to inaccurate interpretation of key parameters; and consequently, have failed to transfer several critical loads from UAT to the SAT during main generator trip event. Although several techniques have been adopted to develop robust transfer schemes, a combination of Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Systems (Neuro-Fuzzy) has not been extensively used. In this paper, we apply the concept of Neuro-Fuzzy to determine plant operating mode and dynamic prediction of the appropriate bus transfer algorithm to be selected based on the first cycle of voltage information. The performance of Sequential Fast Transfer and Residual Bus Transfer schemes was evaluated through simulation and integration of the Neuro-Fuzzy system. The objective for adopting Neuro-Fuzzy approach in the bus transfer scheme is to utilize the signal validation capabilities of artificial neural network, specifically the back-propagation algorithm which is very accurate in learning completely new systems. This research presents a combined effect of artificial neural network and fuzzy systems to accurately interpret key bus transfer parameters such as magnitude of the residual voltage, decay time, and the associated phase angle of the residual voltage in order to determine the possibility of high speed bus transfer for a particular bus and the corresponding transfer algorithm. This demonstrates potential for general applicability to improve reliability of the auxiliary power distribution system. The performance of the scheme is implemented on APR1400 nuclear power plant auxiliary system.

Keywords: auxiliary power system, bus transfer scheme, fuzzy logic, neural networks, reliability

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Authors: Saeed Farivar, Mohsen Kahrom

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The purpose of this work is to develop a physical simulation model for the purpose of studying the effect of various design parameters on the performance of packaged-liquid chillers. This paper presents a steady-state model for predicting the performance of package-Liquid chiller over a wide range of operation condition. The model inputs are inlet conditions; geometry and output of model include system performance variable such as power consumption, coefficient of performance (COP) and states of refrigerant through the refrigeration cycle. A computer model that simulates the steady-state cyclic performance of a vapor compression chiller is developed for the purpose of performing detailed physical design analysis of actual industrial chillers. The model can be used for optimizing design and for detailed energy efficiency analysis of packaged liquid chillers. The simulation model takes into account presence of all chiller components such as compressor, shell-and-tube condenser and evaporator heat exchangers, thermostatic expansion valve and connection pipes and tubing’s by thermo-hydraulic modeling of heat transfer, fluids flow and thermodynamics processes in each one of the mentioned components. To verify the validity of the developed model, a 7.5 USRT packaged-liquid chiller is used and a laboratory test stand for bringing the chiller to its standard steady-state performance condition is build. Experimental results obtained from testing the chiller in various load and temperature conditions is shown to be in good agreement with those obtained from simulating the performance of the chiller using the computer prediction model. An entropy-minimization-based optimization analysis is performed based on the developed analytical performance model of the chiller. The variation of design parameters in construction of shell-and-tube condenser and evaporator heat exchangers are studied using the developed performance and optimization analysis and simulation model and a best-match condition between the physical design and construction of chiller heat exchangers and its compressor is found to exist. It is expected that manufacturers of chillers and research organizations interested in developing energy-efficient design and analysis of compression chillers can take advantage of the presented study and its results.

Keywords: optimization, packaged liquid chiller, performance, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sushovan Ghosh, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosols directly affect Earth’s radiation budget by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. While the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) has decreased over the years, it is still higher than that of greenhouse gas forcing, particularly in the South Asian region, due to high heterogeneity in their chemical properties. Understanding the Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of aerosol composition is critical in improving climate prediction. Studies using satellite data, in-situ and aircraft measurements, and models have investigated the Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol characteristics. In this study, we have taken aerosol data from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) level-2 version 23 aerosol products retrieved at 4.4 km and radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 21 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. MISR aerosol product includes size and shapes segregated aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA). Additionally, 74 aerosol mixtures are included in version 23 data that is used for aerosol speciation. We have seasonally mapped aerosol optical and microphysical properties from MISR for India at quarter degrees resolution. Results show strong Spatio-temporal variability, with a constant higher value of AOD for the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The contribution of small-size particles is higher throughout the year, spatially during winter months. SSA is found to be overestimated where absorbing particles are present. The climatological map of short wave (SW) ARF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) shows a strong cooling except in only a few places (values ranging from +2.5o to -22.5o). Cooling due to aerosols is higher in the absence of clouds. Higher negative values of ARF are found over the IGP region, given the high aerosol concentration above the region. Surface ARF values are everywhere negative for our study domain, with higher values in clear conditions. The results strongly correlate with AOD from MISR and ARF from CERES.

Keywords: aerosol Radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, single scattering albedo (SSA), CERES

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Authors: Yutaro Kyuma, Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

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A commuter bus remains important as a means to network public transportation between railway stations and terminals within cities. In some cases, the boarding time becomes longer, and the boarding rate tends to be higher corresponding to the development of urban cities. The interior environmental quality, e.g. temperature and air quality, in a commuter bus is relatively heterogeneous and complex compared to that of an indoor environment in buildings due to several factors: solar radiative heat – which comes from large-area windows –, inadequate ventilation rate caused by high density of commuters, and metabolic heat generation from travelers themselves. In addition to this, under conditions where many passengers ride in the enclosed space, contact and airborne infectious risk have attracted considerable attention in terms of public health. From this point of view, it is essential to develop the prediction method for assessment of interior environmental quality and infection risk in commuter bus cabins. In this study, we developed a numerical commuter bus model integrated with computer simulated persons to reproduce realistic indoor environment conditions with high occupancy during commuting. Here, computer simulated persons were newly designed considering different types of geometries, e.g., standing position, seating position, and individual differences. Here we conducted coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with radiative heat transfer analysis under steady state condition. Distributions of heterogeneous air flow patterns, temperature, and moisture surrounding the human body under some different ventilation system were analyzed by using CFD technique, and skin surface temperature distributions were analyzed using thermoregulation model that integrated into computer simulated person. Through these analyses, we discussed the interior environmental quality in specific commuter bus cabins. Further, inhaled air quality of each passenger was also analyzed. This study may have possibility to design the ventilation system in bus for improving thermal comfort of occupants.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CFD, computer simulated person, CSP, contaminant, indoor environment, public health, ventilation

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Parul Madan

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Traffic noise pollution has become a challenging problem for all metro cities of India due to rapid urbanization, growing population and rising number of vehicles and transport development. In Delhi the prime source of noise pollution is vehicular traffic. In Delhi it is found that the ambient noise level (Leq) is exceeding the standard permissible value at all the locations. Noise barriers or enclosures are definitely useful in obtaining effective deduction of traffic noise disturbances in urbanized areas. US’s Federal Highway Administration Model (FHWA) and Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CORTN) of UK are used to develop spread sheets for noise prediction. Spread sheets are also developed for evaluating effectiveness of existing boundary walls abutting houses in mitigating noise, redesigning them as noise barriers. Study was also carried out to examine the changes in noise level due to designed noise barrier by using both models FHWA and CORTN respectively. During the collection of various data it is found that receivers are located far away from road at Rithala and Moolchand sites and hence extra barrier height needed to meet prescribed limits was less as seen from calculations and most of the noise diminishes by propagation effect.On the basis of overall study and data analysis, it is concluded that FHWA and CORTN models under estimate noise levels. FHWA model predicted noise levels with an average percentage error of -7.33 and CORTN predicted with an average percentage error of -8.5. It was observed that at all sites noise levels at receivers were exceeding the standard limit of 55 dB. It was seen from calculations that existing walls are reducing noise levels. Average noise reduction due to walls at Rithala was 7.41 dB and at Panchsheel was 7.20 dB and lower amount of noise reduction was observed at Friend colony which was only 5.88. It was observed from analysis that Friends colony sites need much greater height of barrier. This was because of residential buildings abutting the road. At friends colony great amount of traffic was observed since it is national highway. At this site diminishing of noise due to propagation effect was very less.As FHWA and CORTN models were developed in excel programme, it eliminates laborious calculations of noise. There was no reflection correction in FHWA models as like in CORTN model.

Keywords: IFHWA, CORTN, Noise Sources, Noise Barriers

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Authors: Shreya Goyal

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The study aims to build user-friendly software to understand patient arrival patterns and compute the number of potential patients who will visit a particular health facility for a given period by using a machine learning algorithm. The underlying machine learning algorithm used in this study is the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Accurate prediction of patient arrival allows hospitals to operate more effectively, providing timely and efficient care while optimizing resources and improving patient experience. It allows for better allocation of staff, equipment, and other resources. If there's a projected surge in patients, additional staff or resources can be allocated to handle the influx, preventing bottlenecks or delays in care. Understanding patient arrival patterns can also help streamline processes to minimize waiting times for patients and ensure timely access to care for patients in need. Another big advantage of using this software is adhering to strict data protection regulations such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) in the United States as the hospital will not have to share the data with any third party or upload it to the cloud because the software can read data locally from the machine. The data needs to be arranged in. a particular format and the software will be able to read the data and provide meaningful output. Using software that operates locally can facilitate compliance with these regulations by minimizing data exposure. Keeping patient data within the hospital's local systems reduces the risk of unauthorized access or breaches associated with transmitting data over networks or storing it in external servers. This can help maintain the confidentiality and integrity of sensitive patient information. Historical patient data is used in this study. The input variables used to train the model include patient age, time of day, day of the week, seasonal variations, and local events. The algorithm uses a Supervised learning method to optimize the objective function and find the global minima. The algorithm stores the values of the local minima after each iteration and at the end compares all the local minima to find the global minima. The strength of this study is the transfer function used to calculate the number of patients. The model has an output accuracy of >95%. The method proposed in this study could be used for better management planning of personnel and medical resources.

Keywords: machine learning, SVM, HIPAA, data

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Authors: Anindita Patra, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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The atmosphere-ocean is a dynamically linked system that influences the exchange of energy, mass, and gas at the air-sea interface. The exchange of energy takes place in the form of sensible heat, latent heat, and momentum commonly referred to as fluxes along the atmosphere-ocean boundary. The large scale features such as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a classic example on the interaction mechanism that occurs along the air-sea interface that deals with the inter-annual variability of the Earth’s Climate System. Most importantly the ocean and atmosphere as a coupled system acts in tandem thereby maintaining the energy balance of the climate system, a manifestation of the coupled air-sea interaction process. The present work is an attempt to understand the long-term variability in atmospheric parameters (from surface to upper levels) and investigate their role in influencing the surface ocean variables. More specifically the influence of atmospheric circulation and its variability influencing the mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP) has been explored. The study reports on a critical examination of both ocean-atmosphere parameters during a monsoon season over the head Bay of Bengal region. A trend analysis has been carried out for several atmospheric parameters such as the air temperature, geo-potential height, and omega (vertical velocity) for different vertical levels in the atmosphere (from surface to the troposphere) covering a period from 1992 to 2012. The Reanalysis 2 dataset from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) was used in this study. The study signifies that the variability in air temperature and omega corroborates with the variation noticed in geo-potential height. Further, the study advocates that for the lower atmosphere the geo-potential heights depict a typical east-west contrast exhibiting a zonal dipole behavior over the study domain. In addition, the study clearly brings to light that the variations over different levels in the atmosphere plays a pivotal role in supporting the observed dipole pattern as clearly evidenced from the trends in SLP, associated surface wind speed and significant wave height over the study domain.

Keywords: air temperature, geopotential height, head Bay of Bengal, long-term variability, NCEP reanalysis 2, omega, wind-waves

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Authors: Debamitra Chakravorty, Pratap K. Parida

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Cold-adapted proteases enhance wash performance in low-temperature laundry resulting in a reduction in energy consumption and wear of textiles and are also used in the dehairing process in leather industries. Unfortunately, the possible drawbacks of using cold-adapted proteases are their instability at higher temperatures. Therefore, proteases with broad temperature stability are required. Unfortunately, wild-type cold-adapted proteases exhibit instability at higher temperatures and thus have low shelf lives. Therefore, attempts to engineer cold-adapted proteases by protein engineering were made previously by directed evolution and random mutagenesis. The lacuna is the time, capital, and labour involved to obtain these variants are very demanding and challenging. Therefore, rational engineering for cold stability without compromising an enzyme's optimum pH and temperature for activity is the current requirement. In this work, mutations were rationally designed with the aid of high throughput computational methodology of network analysis, evolutionary conservation scores, and molecular dynamics simulations for Savinase from Bacillus lentus with the intention of rendering the mutants cold stable without affecting their temperature and pH optimum for activity. Further, an attempt was made to incorporate a mutation in the most stable mutant rationally obtained by this method to introduce oxidative stability in the mutant. Such enzymes are desired in detergents with bleaching agents. In silico analysis by performing 300 ns molecular dynamics simulations at 5 different temperatures revealed that these three mutants were found to be better in cold stability compared to the wild type Savinase from Bacillus lentus. Conclusively, this work shows that cold adaptation without losing optimum temperature and pH stability and additionally stability from oxidative damage can be rationally designed by in silico enzyme engineering. The key findings of this work were first, the in silico data of H5 (cold stable savinase) used as a control in this work, corroborated with its reported wet lab temperature stability data. Secondly, three cold stable mutants of Savinase from Bacillus lentus were rationally identified. Lastly, a mutation which will stabilize savinase against oxidative damage was additionally identified.

Keywords: cold stability, molecular dynamics simulations, protein engineering, rational design

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Tamal Roy, Anuradha Bhat

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Cognitive abilities aid fishes in foraging, avoiding predators & locating mates. Factors like predation pressure & habitat complexity govern learning & memory in fishes. This study aims to compare spatial learning & memory across four natural populations of zebrafish. Zebrafish, a small cyprinid inhabits a diverse range of freshwater habitats & this makes it amenable to studies investigating role of native environment in spatial cognitive abilities. Four populations were collected across India from waterbodies with contrasting ecological conditions. Habitat complexity of the water-bodies was evaluated as a combination of channel substrate diversity and diversity of vegetation. Experiments were conducted on populations under controlled laboratory conditions. A square shaped spatial testing arena (maze) was constructed for testing the performance of adult zebrafish. The square tank consisted of an inner square shaped layer with the edges connected to the diagonal ends of the tank-walls by connections thereby forming four separate chambers. Each of the four chambers had a main door in the centre. Each chamber had three sections separated by two windows. A removable coloured window-pane (red, yellow, green or blue) identified each main door. A food reward associated with an artificial plant was always placed inside the left-hand section of the red-door chamber. The position of food-reward and plant within the red-door chamber was fixed. A test fish would have to explore the maze by taking turns and locate the food inside the right-side section of the red-door chamber. Fishes were sorted from each population stock and kept individually in separate containers for identification. At a time, a test fish was released into the arena and allowed 20 minutes to explore in order to find the food-reward. In this way, individual fishes were trained through the maze to locate the food reward for eight consecutive days. The position of red door, with the plant and the reward, was shuffled every day. Following training, an intermission of four days was given during which the fishes were not subjected to trials. Post-intermission, the fishes were re-tested on the 13th day following the same protocol for their ability to remember the learnt task. Exploratory tendencies and latency of individuals to explore on 1st day of training, performance time across trials, and number of mistakes made each day were recorded. Additionally, mechanism used by individuals to solve the maze each day was analyzed across populations. Fishes could be expected to use algorithm (sequence of turns) or associative cues in locating the food reward. Individuals of populations did not differ significantly in latencies and tendencies to explore. No relationship was found between exploration and learning across populations. High habitat-complexity populations had higher rates of learning & stronger memory while low habitat-complexity populations had lower rates of learning and much reduced abilities to remember. High habitat-complexity populations used associative cues more than algorithm for learning and remembering while low habitat-complexity populations used both equally. The study, therefore, helped understand the role of natural ecology in explaining variations in spatial learning abilities across populations.

Keywords: algorithm, associative cue, habitat complexity, population, spatial learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Zakaria Kharbouch, Mustapha Bouchaara, F. Elkouihen, A. Habbal, A. Ratnani, A. Faik

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Solid-state lithium-ion batteries have garnered increasing interest in modern energy research due to their potential for safer, more efficient, and sustainable energy storage systems. Among the critical components of these batteries, the electrolyte plays a pivotal role, with LLZO garnet-based electrolytes showing significant promise. Garnet materials offer intrinsic advantages such as high Li-ion conductivity, wide electrochemical stability, and excellent compatibility with lithium metal anodes. However, optimizing ionic conductivity in garnet structures poses a complex challenge, primarily due to the multitude of potential dopants that can be incorporated into the LLZO crystal lattice. The complexity of material design, influenced by numerous dopant options, requires a systematic method to find the most effective combinations. This study highlights the utility of machine learning (ML) techniques in the materials discovery process to navigate the complex range of factors in garnet-based electrolytes. Collaborators from the materials science and ML fields worked with a comprehensive dataset previously employed in a similar study and collected from various literature sources. This dataset served as the foundation for an extensive data refinement phase, where meticulous error identification, correction, outlier removal, and garnet-specific feature engineering were conducted. This rigorous process substantially improved the dataset's quality, ensuring it accurately captured the underlying physical and chemical principles governing garnet ionic conductivity. The data refinement effort resulted in a significant improvement in the predictive performance of the machine learning model. Originally starting at an accuracy of 0.32, the model underwent substantial refinement, ultimately achieving an accuracy of 0.88. This enhancement highlights the effectiveness of the interdisciplinary approach and underscores the substantial potential of machine learning techniques in materials science research.

Keywords: lithium batteries, all-solid-state batteries, machine learning, solid state electrolytes

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: David Shengelia, Tamara Tsutsunava, Manana Togonidze, Giorgi Chichinadze, Giorgi Beridze

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Orthoclase gabbro intrusive exposes in the Eastern part of the Dzirula crystalline massif of the Central Transcaucasian microcontinent. It is intruded in the Baikal quartz-diorite gneisses as a stock-like body. The intrusive is characterized by heterogeneity of rock composition: variability of mineral content and irregular distribution of rock-forming minerals. The rocks are represented by pyroxenites, gabbro-pyroxenites and gabbros of different composition – K-feldspar, pyroxene-hornblende and biotite bearing varieties. Scientific views on the genesis and age of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive are considerably different. Based on the long-term pertogeochemical and geochronological investigations of the intrusive with such an extraordinary composition the authors came to the following conclusions. According to geological and geophysical data, it is stated that in the Saurian orogeny horizontal tectonic layering of the Earth’s crust of the Central Transcaucasian microcontinent took place. That is precisely this fact that explains the formation of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive. During the tectonic doubling of the Earth’s crust of the mentioned microcontinent thick tectonic nappes of mafic and sialic layers overlap the sialic basement (‘inversion’ layer). The initial magma of the intrusive was of high-temperature basite-ultrabasite composition, crystallization products of which are pyroxenites and gabbro-pyroxenites. Petrochemical data of the magma attest to its formation in the Upper mantle and partially in the ‘crustal astenolayer’. Then, a newly formed overheated dry magma with phenocrysts of clinopyrocxene and basic plagioclase intruded into the ‘inversion’ layer. From the new medium it was enriched by the volatile components causing the selective melting and as a result the formation of leucocratic quartz-feldspar material. At the same time in the basic magma intensive transformation of pyroxene to hornblende was going on. The basic magma partially mixed with the newly formed acid magma. These different magmas intruded first into the allochthonous basite layer without its significant transformation and then into the upper sialic layer and crystallized here at a depth of 7-10 km. By petrochemical data the newly formed leucocratic granite magma belongs to the S type granites, but the above mentioned mixed magma – to H (hybrid) type. During the final stage of magmatic processes the gabbroic rocks impregnated with high-temperature feldspar-bearing material forming anorthoclase or orthoclase. Thus, so called ‘orthoclase gabbro’ includes the rocks of various genetic groups: 1. protolith of gabbroic intrusive; 2. hybrid rock – K-feldspar gabbro and 3. leucocratic quartz-feldspar bearing rock. Petrochemical and geochemical data obtained from the hybrid gabbro and from the inrusive protolith differ from each other. For the identification of petrogenetic model of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive formation LA-ICP-MS- U-Pb zircon dating has been conducted in all three genetic types of gabbro. The zircon age of the protolith – mean 221.4±1.9 Ma and of hybrid K-feldspar gabbro – mean 221.9±2.2 Ma, records crystallization time of the intrusive, but the zircon age of quartz-feldspar bearing rocks – mean 323±2.9 Ma, as well as the inherited age (323±9, 329±8.3, 332±10 and 335±11 Ma) of hybrid K-feldspar gabbro corresponds to the formation age of Late Variscan granitoids widespread in the Dzirula crystalline massif.

Keywords: The Caucasus, isotope dating, orthoclase-bearing gabbro, petrogenetic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Qianqian He, Naian Liu, Xiaodong Xie, Linhe Zhang, Yang Zhang, Weidong Yan

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In the wild, the vegetation layer with exceptionally complex fuel composition and heterogeneous spatial distribution strongly affects the rate of fire spread (ROS) and fire intensity. Clarifying the influence of fuel bed structure on fire spread behavior is of great significance to wildland fire management and prediction. The packing ratio is one of the key physical parameters describing the property of the fuel bed. There is a threshold value of the packing ratio for ROS, but little is known about the controlling mechanism. In this study, to address this deficiency, a series of fire spread experiments were performed across a discrete fuel bed composed of some regularly arranged laser-cut cardboards, with constant wind speed and different packing ratios (0.0125-0.0375). The experiment aims to explore the relative importance of the internal and surface heat transfer with packing ratio. The dependence of the measured ROS on the packing ratio was almost consistent with the previous researches. The data of the radiative and total heat fluxes show that the internal heat transfer and surface heat transfer are both enhanced with increasing packing ratio (referred to as ‘Stage 1’). The trend agrees well with the variation of the flame length. The results extracted from the video show that the flame length markedly increases with increasing packing ratio in Stage 1. Combustion intensity is suggested to be increased, which, in turn, enhances the heat radiation. The heat flux data shows that the surface heat transfer appears to be more important than the internal heat transfer (fuel preheating inside the fuel bed) in Stage 1. On the contrary, the internal heat transfer dominates the fuel preheating mechanism when the packing ratio further increases (referred to as ‘Stage 2’) because the surface heat flux keeps almost stable with the packing ratio in Stage 2. As for the heat convection, the flow velocity was measured using Pitot tubes both inside and on the upper surface of the fuel bed during the fire spread. Based on the gas velocity distribution ahead of the flame front, it is found that the airflow inside the fuel bed is restricted in Stage 2, which can reduce the internal heat convection in theory. However, the analysis indicates not the influence of inside flow on convection and combustion, but the decreased internal radiation of per unit fuel is responsible for the decrease of ROS.

Keywords: discrete fuel bed, fire spread, packing ratio, wildfire

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Stig H. Jørgensen, Trond Nordfjærn, Øyvind Teige Hedenstrøm, Torbjørn Rundmo

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The aim of the paper is to estimate and forecast road traffic injuries in the coming 10-15 years given new targets in urban transport policy and shifts of mode of transport, including injury cross-effects of mode changes. The paper discusses possibilities and limitations in measuring and quantifying possible injury reductions. Injury data (killed and seriously injured road users) from six urban areas in Norway from 1998-2012 (N= 4709 casualties) form the basis for estimates of changing injury patterns. For the coming period calculation of number of injuries and injury rates by type of road user (categories of motorized versus non-motorized) by sex, age and type of road are made. A prognosticated population increase (25 %) in total population within 2025 in the six urban areas will curb the proceeded fall in injury figures. However, policy strategies and measures geared towards a stronger modal shift from use of private vehicles to safer public transport (bus, train) will modify this effect. On the other side will door to door transport (pedestrians on their way to/from public transport nodes) imply a higher exposure for pedestrians (bikers) converting from private vehicle use (including fall accidents not registered as traffic accidents). The overall effect is the sum of these modal shifts in the increasing urban population and in addition diminishing return to the majority of road safety countermeasures has also to be taken into account. The paper demonstrates how uncertainties in the various estimates (prediction factors) on increasing injuries as well as decreasing injury figures may partly offset each other. The paper discusses road safety policy and welfare consequences of transport mode shift, including reduced use of private vehicles, and further environmental impacts. In this regard, safety and environmental issues will as a rule concur. However pursuing environmental goals (e.g. improved air quality, reduced co2 emissions) encouraging more biking may generate more biking injuries. The study was given financial grants from the Norwegian Research Council’s Transport Safety Program.

Keywords: road injuries, forecasting, reduced private care use, urban, Norway

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Satish Kumar, Nisha Goyal

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In the stock market, individual investors exhibit different kinds of behaviour. Traditional finance is built on the notion of 'homo economics', which states that humans always make perfectly rational choices to maximize their wealth and minimize risk. That is, traditional finance has concern for how investors should behave rather than how actual investors are behaving. Behavioural finance provides the explanation for this phenomenon. Although finance has been studied for thousands of years, behavioural finance is an emerging field that combines the behavioural or psychological aspects with conventional economic and financial theories to provide explanations on how emotions and cognitive factors influence investors’ behaviours. These emotions and cognitive factors are known as behavioural biases. Because of these biases, investors make irrational investment decisions. Besides, the emotional and cognitive factors, the social influence of media as well as friends, relatives and colleagues also affect investment decisions. Psychological factors influence individual investors’ investment decision making, but few studies have used qualitative methods to understand these factors. The aim of this study is to explore the behavioural factors or biases that affect individuals’ investment decision making. For the purpose of this exploratory study, an in-depth interview method was used because it provides much more exhaustive information and a relaxed atmosphere in which people feel more comfortable to provide information. Twenty investment advisors having a minimum 5 years’ experience in securities firms were interviewed. In this study, thematic content analysis was used to analyse interview transcripts. Thematic content analysis process involves analysis of transcripts, coding and identification of themes from data. Based on the analysis we categorized the statements of advisors into various themes. Past market returns and volatility; preference for safe returns; tendency to believe they are better than others; tendency to divide their money into different accounts/assets; tendency to hold on to loss-making assets; preference to invest in familiar securities; tendency to believe that past events were predictable; tendency to rely on the reference point; tendency to rely on other sources of information; tendency to have regret for making past decisions; tendency to have more sensitivity towards losses than gains; tendency to rely on own skills; tendency to buy rising stocks with the expectation that this rise will continue etc. are some of the major concerns showed by experts about investors. The findings of the study revealed 13 biases such as overconfidence bias, disposition effect, familiarity bias, framing effect, anchoring bias, availability bias, self-attribution bias, representativeness, mental accounting, hindsight bias, regret aversion, loss aversion and herding bias/media biases present in Indian investors. These biases have a negative connotation because they produce a distortion in the calculation of an outcome. These biases are classified under three categories such as cognitive errors, emotional biases and social interaction. The findings of this study may assist both financial service providers and researchers to understand the various psychological biases of individual investors in investment decision making. Additionally, individual investors will also be aware of the behavioural biases that will aid them to make sensible and efficient investment decisions.

Keywords: financial advisors, individual investors, investment decisions, psychological biases, qualitative thematic content analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Zeina Bou Diab, Arij Daou

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The neural mechanisms of sequential behaviors are intensively studied, with songbirds a focus for learned vocal production. We are studying the premotor nucleus HVC at a nexus of multiple pathways contributing to song learning and production. The HVC consists of multiple classes of neuronal populations, each has its own cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. During singing, a large subset of motor cortex analog-projecting HVCRA neurons emit a single 6-10 ms burst of spikes at the same time during each rendition of song, a large subset of basal ganglia-projecting HVCX neurons fire 1 to 4 bursts that are similarly time locked to vocalizations, while HVCINT neurons fire tonically at average high frequency throughout song with prominent modulations whose timing in relation to song remains unresolved. This opens the opportunity to define models relating explicit HVC circuitry to how these neurons work cooperatively to control learning and singing. We developed conductance-based Hodgkin-Huxley models for the three classes of HVC neurons (based on the ion channels previously identified from in vitro recordings) and connected them in several physiologically realistic networks (based on the known synaptic connectivity and specific glutaminergic and gabaergic pharmacology) via different architecture patterning scenarios with the aim to replicate the in vivo firing patterning behaviors. We are able, through these networks, to reproduce the in vivo behavior of each class of HVC neurons, as shown by the experimental recordings. The different network architectures developed highlight different mechanisms that might be contributing to the propagation of sequential neural activity (continuous or punctate) in the HVC and to the distinctive firing patterns that each class exhibits during singing. Examples of such possible mechanisms include: 1) post-inhibitory rebound in HVCX and their population patterns during singing, 2) different subclasses of HVCINT interacting via inhibitory-inhibitory loops, 3) mono-synaptic HVCX to HVCRA excitatory connectivity, and 4) structured many-to-one inhibitory synapses from interneurons to projection neurons, and others. Replication is only a preliminary step that must be followed by model prediction and testing.

Keywords: computational modeling, neural networks, temporal neural sequences, ionic currents, songbird

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity and weight gain are associated with increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases and the progression of liver fibrosis. Aspartate transaminase–to-platelet count ratio index (AST-to-PLT, APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were primarily considered as the formulas capable of differentiating hepatitis from cirrhosis. Recently, they have found clinical use as measures of liver fibrosis and cardiovascular risk. However, their status in children has not been evaluated in detail yet. The aim of this study is to determine APRI and FIB-4 status in obese (OB) children and compare them with values found in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). A total of sixty-eight children examined in the outpatient clinics of the Pediatrics Department in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty were included in the study. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, thirty-five children with N-BMI, whose age- and sex-dependent BMI indices vary between 15 and 85 percentiles, were evaluated. The second group comprised thirty-three OB children whose BMI percentile values were between 95 and 99. Anthropometric measurements and routine biochemical tests were performed. Using these parameters, values for the related indices, BMI, APRI, and FIB-4, were calculated. Appropriate statistical tests were used for the evaluation of the study data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p<0.05. In the OB group, values found for APRI and FIB-4 were higher than those calculated for the N-BMI group. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the N-BMI and OB groups in terms of APRI and FIB-4. A similar pattern was detected for triglyceride (TRG) values. The correlation coefficient and degree of significance between APRI and FIB-4 were r=0.336 and p=0.065 in the N-BMI group. On the other hand, they were r=0.707 and p=0.001 in the OB group. Associations of these two indices with TRG have shown that this parameter was strongly correlated (p<0.001) both with APRI and FIB-4 in the OB group, whereas no correlation was calculated in children with N-BMI. Triglycerides are associated with an increased risk of fatty liver, which can progress to severe clinical problems such as steatohepatitis, which can lead to liver fibrosis. Triglycerides are also independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, the lack of correlation between TRG and APRI as well as FIB-4 in children with N-BMI, along with the detection of strong correlations of TRG with these indices in OB children, was the indicator of the possible onset of the tendency towards the development of fatty liver in OB children. This finding also pointed out the potential risk for cardiovascular pathologies in OB children. The nature of the difference between APRI vs FIB-4 correlations in N-BMI and OB groups (no correlation versus high correlation), respectively, may be the indicator of the importance of involving age and alanine transaminase parameters in addition to AST and PLT in the formula designed for FIB-4.

Keywords: APRI, children, FIB-4, obesity, triglycerides

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Umamaheswari Shanmugam, Silvia Ronchi, Radu Vornicu

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Software, artificial intelligence, and machine learning can improve healthcare through innovative and advanced technologies that are able to use the large amount and variety of data generated during healthcare services every day. As we read the news, over 500 machine learning or other artificial intelligence medical devices have now received FDA clearance or approval, the first ones even preceding the year 2000. One of the big advantages of these new technologies is the ability to get experience and knowledge from real-world use and to continuously improve their performance. Healthcare systems and institutions can have a great benefit because the use of advanced technologies improves the same time efficiency and efficacy of healthcare. Software-defined as a medical device, is stand-alone software that is intended to be used for patients for one or more of these specific medical intended uses: - diagnosis, prevention, monitoring, prediction, prognosis, treatment or alleviation of a disease, any other health conditions, replacing or modifying any part of a physiological or pathological process–manage the received information from in vitro specimens derived from the human samples (body) and without principal main action of its principal intended use by pharmacological, immunological or metabolic definition. Software qualified as medical devices must comply with the general safety and performance requirements applicable to medical devices. These requirements are necessary to ensure high performance and quality and also to protect patients’ safety. The evolution and the continuous improvement of software used in healthcare must take into consideration the increase in regulatory requirements, which are becoming more complex in each market. The gap between these advanced technologies and the new regulations is the biggest challenge for medical device manufacturers. Regulatory requirements can be considered a market barrier, as they can delay or obstacle the device approval, but they are necessary to ensure performance, quality, and safety, and at the same time, they can be a business opportunity if the manufacturer is able to define in advance the appropriate regulatory strategy. The abstract will provide an overview of the current regulatory framework, the evolution of the international requirements, and the standards applicable to medical device software in the potential market all over the world.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, SaMD, regulatory, clinical evaluation, classification, international requirements, MDR, 510k, PMA, IMDRF, cyber security, health care systems.

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Suganya Chandrababu, Dhundy Bastola

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Like in the gut, the subgingival microbiota plays a crucial role in oral hygiene, health, and cariogenic diseases. Human activities like diet, antibiotics, and periodontal treatments alter the bacterial communities, metabolism, and functions in the oral cavity, leading to a dysbiotic state and changes in the plaques of orthodontic patients. Fixed periodontal appliances hinder oral hygiene and cause changes in the dental plaques influencing the subgingival microbiota. However, the microbial species’ diversity and complexity pose a great challenge in understanding the taxa’s community distribution patterns and their role in oral health. In this research, we analyze the subgingival microbial samples from individuals with fixed dental appliances (metal/clear) using an in silico approach. We employ exploratory hypothesis-driven multivariate and regression analysis to shed light on the microbial community and its functional fluctuations due to dental appliances used and identify risks associated with complex disease phenotypes. Our findings confirm the changes in oral microbiota composition due to the presence and type of fixed orthodontal devices. We identified seven main periodontic pathogens, including Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, and Firmicutes, whose abundances were significantly altered due to the presence and type of fixed appliances used. In the case of metal braces, the abundances of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, Candidatus saccharibacteria, and Spirochaetes significantly increased, while the abundance of Firmicutes and Actinobacteria decreased. However, in individuals With clear braces, the abundance of Bacteroidetes and Candidatus saccharibacteria increased. The highest abundance value (P-value=0.004 < 0.05) was observed with Bacteroidetes in individuals with the metal appliance, which is associated with gingivitis, periodontitis, endodontic infections, and odontogenic abscesses. Overall, the bacterial abundances decrease with clear type and increase with metal type of braces. Regression analysis further validated the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) results, supporting the hypothesis that the presence and type of the fixed oral appliances significantly alter the bacterial abundance and composition.

Keywords: oral microbiota, statistical analysis, fixed or-thodontal appliances, bacterial abundance, multivariate analysis, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Karin Schakib-Ekbatan, Annette Roser

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According to the Federal Government’s plans, the German building stock should be virtually climate neutral by 2050. Thus, the “EnEff.Gebäude.2050” funding initiative was launched, complementing the projects of the Energy Transition Construction research initiative. Beyond the construction and renovation of individual buildings, solutions must be found at the neighborhood level. The subject of the presented pilot project is a building ensemble from the Wilhelminian period in Munich, which is planned to be refurbished based on a socially compatible, energy-saving, innovative-technical modernization concept. The building ensemble, with about 200 apartments, is part of the building cooperative. To create an optimized network and possible synergies between researchers and projects of the funding initiative, a Scientific Accompanying Research was established for cross-project analyses of findings and results in order to identify further research needs and trends. Thus, the project is characterized by an interdisciplinary approach that combines constructional, technical, and socio-scientific expertise based on a participatory understanding of research by involving the tenants at an early stage. The research focus is on getting insights into the tenants’ comfort requirements, attitudes, and energy-related behaviour. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are applied based on the Technology-Acceptance-Model (TAM). The core of the refurbishment strategy is a wall heating system intended to replace conventional radiators. A wall heating provides comfortable and consistent radiant heat instead of convection heat, which often causes drafts and dust turbulence. Besides comfort and health, the advantage of wall heating systems is an energy-saving operation. All apartments would be supplied by a uniform basic temperature control system (around perceived room temperature of 18 °C resp. 64,4 °F), which could be adapted to individual preferences via individual heating options (e. g. infrared heating). The new heating system would affect the furnishing of the walls, in terms of not allowing the wall surface to be covered too much with cupboards or pictures. Measurements and simulations of the energy consumption of an installed wall heating system are currently being carried out in a show apartment in this neighborhood to investigate energy-related, economical aspects as well as thermal comfort. In March, interviews were conducted with a total of 12 people in 10 households. The interviews were analyzed by MAXQDA. The main issue of the interview was the fear of reduced self-efficacy within their own walls (not having sufficient individual control over the room temperature or being very limited in furnishing). Other issues concerned the impact that the construction works might have on their daily life, such as noise or dirt. Despite their basically positive attitude towards a climate-friendly refurbishment concept, tenants were very concerned about the further development of the project and they expressed a great need for information events. The results of the interviews will be used for project-internal discussions on technical and psychological aspects of the refurbishment strategy in order to design accompanying workshops with the tenants as well as to prepare a written survey involving all households of the neighbourhood.

Keywords: energy efficiency, interviews, participation, refurbishment, residential buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Rajashree Bothale, Venkateswara Rao

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Indian Himalayas also known as third pole with 0.9 Million SQ km area, contain the largest reserve of ice and snow outside poles and affect global climate and water availability in the perennial rivers. The variations in the extent of snow are indicative of climate change. The snow melt is sensitive to climate change (warming) and also an influencing factor to the climate change. A study of the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow cover and melt/freeze conditions is carried out using space based observations in visible and microwave bands. An analysis period of 2003 to 2015 is selected to identify and map the changes and trend in snow cover using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) data. For mapping of wet snow, microwave data is used, which is sensitive to the presence of liquid water in the snow. The present study uses Ku-band scatterometer data from QuikSCAT and Oceansat satellites. The enhanced resolution images at 2.25 km from the 13.6GHz sensor are used to analyze the backscatter response to dry and wet snow for the period of 2000-2013 using threshold method. The study area is divided into three major river basins namely Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus which also represent the diversification in Himalayas as the Eastern Himalayas, Central Himalayas and Western Himalayas. Topographic variations across different zones show that a majority of the study area lies in 4000–5500 m elevation range and the maximum percent of high elevated areas (>5500 m) lies in Western Himalayas. The effect of climate change could be seen in the extent of snow cover and also on the melt/freeze status in different parts of Himalayas. Melt onset day increases from east (March11+11) to west (May12+15) with large variation in number of melt days. Western Himalayas has shorter melt duration (120+15) in comparison to Eastern Himalayas (150+16) providing lesser time for melt. Eastern Himalaya glaciers are prone for enhanced melt due to large melt duration. The extent of snow cover coupled with the status of melt/freeze indicating solar radiation can be used as precursor for monsoon prediction.

Keywords: Indian Himalaya, Scatterometer, Snow Melt/Freeze, AWiFS, Cryosphere

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Calvin Ralph, Edward Archer, Alistair McIlhagger

Abstract:

3D woven textile composites continue to emerge as an advanced material for structural applications and composite manufacture due to their bespoke nature, through thickness reinforcement and near net shape capabilities. When 3D woven preforms are produced, they are in their optimal physical state. As 3D weaving is a dry preforming technology it relies on compression of the preform to achieve the desired composite thickness, fibre volume fraction (Vf) and consolidation. This compression of the preform during manufacture results in changes to its thickness and architecture which can often lead to under-performance or changes of the 3D woven composite. Unlike traditional 2D fabrics, the bespoke nature and variability of 3D woven architectures makes it difficult to know exactly how each 3D preform will behave during processing. Therefore, the focus of this study is to investigate the effect of compression on differing 3D woven architectures in terms of structure, crimp or fibre waviness and thickness as well as analysing the accuracy of available software to predict how 3D woven preforms behave under compression. To achieve this, 3D preforms are modelled and compression simulated in Wisetex with varying architectures of binder style, pick density, thickness and tow size. These architectures have then been woven with samples dry compression tested to determine the compressibility of the preforms under various pressures. Additional preform samples were manufactured using Resin Transfer Moulding (RTM) with varying compressive force. Composite samples were cross sectioned, polished and analysed using microscopy to investigate changes in architecture and crimp. Data from dry fabric compression and composite samples were then compared alongside the Wisetex models to determine accuracy of the prediction and identify architecture parameters that can affect the preform compressibility and stability. Results indicate that binder style/pick density, tow size and thickness have a significant effect on compressibility of 3D woven preforms with lower pick density allowing for greater compression and distortion of the architecture. It was further highlighted that binder style combined with pressure had a significant effect on changes to preform architecture where orthogonal binders experienced highest level of deformation, but highest overall stability, with compression while layer to layer indicated a reduction in fibre crimp of the binder. In general, simulations showed a relative comparison to experimental results; however, deviation is evident due to assumptions present within the modelled results.

Keywords: 3D woven composites, compression, preforms, textile composites

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