Search results for: statistical monitoring
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 6675

Search results for: statistical monitoring

75 Exploring Perspectives and Complexities of E-tutoring: Insights from Students Opting out of Online Tutor Service

Authors: Prince Chukwuneme Enwereji, Annelien Van Rooyen

Abstract:

In recent years, technology integration in education has transformed the learning landscape, particularly in online institutions. One technological advancement that has gained popularity is e-tutoring, which offers personalised academic support to students through online platforms. While e-tutoring has become well-known and has been adopted to promote collaborative learning, there are still students who do not use these services for various reasons. However, little attention has been given to understanding the perspectives of students who have not utilized these services. The research objectives include identifying the perceived benefits that non-e-tutoring students believe e-tutoring could offer, such as enhanced academic support, personalized learning experiences, and improved performance. Additionally, the study explored the potential drawbacks or concerns that non-e-tutoring students associate with e-tutoring, such as concerns about efficacy, a lack of face-to-face interaction, and platform accessibility. The study adopted a quantitative research approach with a descriptive design to gather and analyze data on non-e-tutoring students' perspectives. Online questionnaires were employed as the primary data collection method, allowing for the efficient collection of data from many participants. The collected data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Ethical concepts such as informed consent, anonymity of responses and protection of respondents against harm were maintained. Findings indicate that non-e-tutoring students perceive a sense of control over their own pace of learning, suggesting a preference for self-directed learning and the ability to tailor their educational experience to their individual needs and learning styles. They also exhibit high levels of motivation, believe in their ability to effectively participate in their studies and organize their academic work, and feel comfortable studying on their own without the help of e-tutors. However, non-e-tutoring students feel that e-tutors do not sufficiently address their academic needs and lack engagement. They also perceive a lack of clarity in the roles of e-tutors, leading to uncertainty about their responsibilities. In terms of communication, students feel overwhelmed by the volume of announcements and find repetitive information frustrating. Additionally, some students face challenges with their internet connection and associated cost, which can hinder their participation in online activities. Furthermore, non-e-tutoring students express a desire for interactions with their peers and a sense of belonging to a group or team. They value opportunities for collaboration, teamwork in their learning experience, the importance of fostering social interactions and creating a sense of community in online learning environments. This study recommended that students seek alternate support systems by reaching out to professors or academic advisors for guidance and clarification. Developing self-directed learning skills is essential, empowering students to take charge of their own learning through setting objectives, creating own study plans, and utilising resources. For HEIs, it was recommended that they should ensure that a variety of support services are available to cater to the needs of all students, including non-e-tutoring students. HEIs should also ensure easy access to online resources, promote a supportive community, and regularly evaluate and adapt their support techniques to meet students' changing requirements.

Keywords: online-tutor;, student support;, online education, educational practices, distance education

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74 An Investigation about the Health-Promoting Lifestyle of 1389 Emergency Nurses in China

Authors: Lei Ye, Min Liu, Yong-Li Gao, Jun Zhang

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Purpose: The aims of the study are to investigate the status of health-promoting lifestyle and to compare the healthy lifestyle of emergency nurses in different levels of hospitals in Sichuan province, China. The investigation is mainly about the health-promoting lifestyle, including spiritual growth, health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, stress management. Then the factors were analyzed influencing the health-promoting lifestyle of emergency nurses in hospitals of Sichuan province in order to find the relevant models to provide reference evidence for intervention. Study Design: A cross-sectional research method was adopted. Stratified cluster sampling, based on geographical location, was used to select the health facilities of 1389 emergency nurses in 54 hospitals from Sichuan province in China. Method: The 52-item, six-factor structure Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II (HPLP- II) instrument was used to explore participants’ self-reported health-promoting behaviors and measure the dimensions of health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, spiritual growth, and stress management. Demographic characteristics, education, work duration, emergency nursing work duration and self-rated health status were documented. Analysis: Data were analyzed through SPSS software ver. 17.0. Frequency, percentage, mean ± standard deviation were used to describe the general information, while the Nonparametric Test was used to compare the constituent ratio of general data of different hospitals. One-way ANOVA was used to compare the scores of health-promoting lifestyle in different levels hospital. A multiple linear regression model was established. P values which were less than 0.05 determined statistical significance in all analyses. Result: The survey showed that the total score of health-promoting lifestyle of nurses at emergency departments in Sichuan Province was 120.49 ± 21.280. The relevant dimensions are ranked by scores in descending order: interpersonal relations, nutrition, health responsibility, physical activity, stress management, spiritual growth. The total scores of the three-A hospital were the highest (121.63 ± 0.724), followed by the senior class hospital (119.7 ± 1.362) and three-B hospital (117.80 ± 1.255). The difference was statistically significant (P=0.024). The general data of nurses was used as the independent variable which includes age, gender, marital status, living conditions, nursing income, hospital level, Length of Service in nursing, Length of Service in emergency, Professional Title, education background, and the average number of night shifts. The total score of health-promoting lifestyle was used as dependent variable; Multiple linear regression analysis method was adopted to establish the regression model. The regression equation F = 20.728, R2 = 0.061, P < 0.05, the age, gender, nursing income, turnover intention and status of coping stress affect the health-promoting lifestyle of nurses in emergency department, the result was statistically significant (P < 0.05 ). Conclusion: The results of the investigation indicate that it will help to develop health promoting interventions for emergency nurses in all levels of hospital in Sichuan Province through further research. Managers need to pay more attention to emergency nurses’ exercise, stress management, self-realization, and conduct intervention in nurse training programs.

Keywords: emergency nurse, health-promoting lifestyle profile II, health behaviors, lifestyle

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73 Spatial Variation in Urbanization and Slum Development in India: Issues and Challenges in Urban Planning

Authors: Mala Mukherjee

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Background: India is urbanizing very fast and urbanisation in India is treated as one of the most crucial components of economic growth. Though the pace of urbanisation (31.6 per cent in 2011) is however slower and lower than the average for Asia but the absolute number of people residing in cities and towns has increased substantially. Rapid urbanization leads to urban poverty and it is well represented in slums. Currently India has four metropolises and 53 million plus cities. All of them have significant slum population but the standard of living and success of slum development programmes varies across regions. Objectives: Objectives of the paper are to show how urbanisation and slum development varies across space; to show spatial variation in the standard of living in Indian slums; to analyse how the implementation of slum development policies like JNNURM, Rajiv Awas Yojana varies across cities and bring different results in different regions and what are the factors responsible for such variation. Data Sources and Methodology: Census 2011 data on urban population and slum households and amenities have been used for analysing the regional variation of urbanisation in 53 million plus cities of India. Special focus has been put on Kolkata Metropolitan Area. Statistical techniques like z-score and PCA have been employed to work out Standard of Living Deprivation score for all the slums of 53 metropolises. ARC-GIS software is used for making maps. Standard of living has been measured in terms of access to basic amenities, infrastructure and assets like drinking water, sanitation, housing condition, bank account, and so on. Findings: 1. The first finding reveals that migration and urbanization is very high in Greater Mumbai, Delhi, Bangaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata; but slum population is high in Greater Mumbai (50% population live in slums), Meerut, Faridabad, Ludhiana, Nagpur, Kolkata etc. Though the rate of urbanization is high in southern and western states but the percentage of slum population is high in northern states (except Greater Mumbai). 2. Standard of Living also varies widely. Slums of Greater Mumbai and North Indian Cities score fairly high in the index indicating the fact that standard of living is high in those slums compare to the slums in eastern India (Dhanbad, Jamshedpur, Kolkata). Therefore, though Kolkata have relatively lesser percentage of slum population compare to north and south Indian cities but the standard of living in Kolkata’s slums is deplorable. 3. It is interesting to note that even within Kolkata Metropolitan Area slums located in the southern and eastern municipal towns like Rajpur-Sonarpur, Pujali, Diamond Harbour, Baduria and Dankuni have lower standard of living compare to the slums located in the Hooghly Industrial belt like Titagarh, Rishrah, Srerampore etc. Slums of the Hooghly Industrial Belt are older than the slums located in eastern and southern part of the urban agglomeration. 4. Therefore, urban development and emergence of slums should not be the only issue of urban governance but standard of living should be the main focus. Slums located in the main cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata get more attention from the urban planners and similarly, older slums in a city receives greater political attention compare to the slums of smaller cities and newly emerged slums of the peripheral parts.

Keywords: urbanisation, slum, spatial variation, India

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72 Environmental Sanitation Parameters Recording in Refugee-Migrants Camps in Greece, 2017

Authors: Crysovaladou Kefaloudi, Kassiani Mellou, Eirini Saranti-Papasaranti, Athanasios Koustenis, Chrysoula Botsi, Agapios Terzidis

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Recent migration crisis led to a vast migrant – refugees movement to Greece which created an urgent need for hosting settlements. Taken into account the protection of public health from possible pathogens related to water and food supply as well as waste and sewage accumulation, a 'Living Conditions Recording Form' was created in the context of 'PHILOS' European Program funded by the Asylum Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) of EU’s DG Migration and Home Affairs, in order to assess a number of environmental sanitation parameters, in refugees – migrants camps in mainland. The assessment will be completed until the end of July. From March to June 2017, mobile unit teams comprised of health inspectors of sub-action 2 of “PHILOS” proceeded with the assessment of living conditions in twenty-two out of thirty-one camps and 'Stata' was used for the statistical analysis of obtained information. Variables were grouped into the following categories: 1) Camp administration, 2) hosted population number, 3) accommodation, 4) heating installations, 5) personal hygiene, 6) sewage collection and disposal, 7) water supply, 8) waste collection and management, 9) pest control, 10) fire safety, 11) food handling and safety. Preliminary analysis of the results showed that camp administration was performed in 90% of the camps by a public authority with the coordination of various NGOs. The median number of hosted population was 222 ranging from 62 to 3200, and the median value of hosted population per accommodation type was 4 in 19 camps. Heating facilities were provided in 86.1% of camps. In 18.2 % of the camps, one personal hygiene facility was available per 6 people ranging in the rest of the camps from 1 per 3 to 1 per 20 hosted refugees-migrants. Waste and sewage collection was performed depending on populations demand in an adequate way in all recorded camps. In 90% of camps, water was supplied through the central water supply system. In 85% of camps quantity and quality of water supply inside camps was regularly monitored for microbial and chemical indices. Pest control was implemented in 86.4% of the camps as well as fire safety measures. Food was supplied by catering companies in 50% of the camps, and the quality and quantity food was monitored at a regular basis. In 77% of camps, food was prepared by the hosted population with the availability of proper storage conditions. Furthermore, in all camps, hosted population was provided with personal hygiene items and health sanitary educational programs were implemented in 77.3% of camps. In conclusion, in the majority of the camps, environmental sanitation parameters were satisfactory. However, waste and sewage accumulation, as well as inadequate pest control measures were recorded in some camps. The obtained data have led to a number of recommendations for the improvement of sanitary conditions, disseminated to all relevant stakeholders. Special emphasis was given to hygiene measures implementation during food handling by migrants – refugees, as well as to waste and sewage accumulation taking in to account the population’s cultural background.

Keywords: environmental sanitation parameters, food borne diseases risk assessment, refugee – migrants camps, water borne diseases risk assessment

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71 Impact of α-Adrenoceptor Antagonists on Biochemical Relapse in Men Undergoing Radiotherapy for Localised Prostate Cancer

Authors: Briohny H. Spencer, Russ Chess-Williams, Catherine McDermott, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie, David Christie

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Background: Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed in men worldwide and the most prevalent in Australian men. In 2015, it was estimated that approximately 18,000 new cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed in Australia. Currently, for localised disease, androgen depravation therapy (ADT) and radiotherapy are a major part of the curative management of prostate cancer. ADT acts to reduce the levels of circulating androgens, primarily testosterone and the locally produced androgen, dihydrotestosterone (DHT), or by preventing the subsequent activation of the androgen receptor. Thus, the growth of the cancerous cells can be reduced or ceased. Radiation techniques such as brachytherapy (radiation delivered directly to the prostate by transperineal implant) or external beam radiation therapy (exposure to a sufficient dose of radiation aimed at eradicating malignant cells) are also common techniques used in the treatment of this condition. Radiotherapy (RT) has significant limitations, including reduced effectiveness in treating malignant cells present in hypoxic microenvironments leading to radio-resistance and poor clinical outcomes and also the significant side effects for the patients. Alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists are used for many prostate cancer patients to control lower urinary tract symptoms, due to the progression of the disease itself or may arise as an adverse effect of the radiotherapy treatment. In Australia, a significant number (not a majority) of patients receive a α1-ADR antagonist and four drugs are available including prazosin, terazosin, alfuzosin and tamsulosin. There is currently limited published data on the effects of α1-ADR antagonists during radiotherapy, but it suggests these medications may improve patient outcomes by enhancing the effect of radiotherapy. Aim: To determine the impact of α1-ADR antagonists treatments on time to biochemical relapse following radiotherapy. Methods: A retrospective study of male patients receiving radiotherapy for biopsy-proven localised prostate cancer was undertaken to compare cancer outcomes for drug-naïve patients and those receiving α1-ADR antagonist treatments. Ethical approval for the collection of data at Genesis CancerCare QLD was obtained and biochemical relapse (defined by a PSA rise of >2ng/mL above the nadir) was recorded in months. Rates of biochemical relapse, prostate specific antigen doubling time (PSADT) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were also compared. Treatment groups were those receiving α1-ADR antagonists treatment before or concurrent with their radiotherapy. Data was statistically analysed using One-way ANOVA and results expressed as mean ± standard deviation. Major findings: The mean time to biochemical relapse for tamsulosin, prazosin, alfuzosin and controls were 45.3±17.4 (n=36), 41.5±19.6 (n=11), 29.3±6.02 (n=6) and 36.5±17.6 (n=16) months respectively. Tamsulosin, prazosin but not alfuzosin delayed time to biochemical relapse although the differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Preliminary data for the prior and/or concurrent use of tamsulosin and prazosin showed a positive trend in delaying time to biochemical relapse although no statistical significance was shown. Larger clinical studies are indicated and with thousands of patient records yet to be analysed, it may determine if there is a significant effect of these drugs on control of prostate cancer.

Keywords: alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists, biochemical relapse, prostate cancer, radiotherapy

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70 Musictherapy and Gardentherapy: A Systemic Approach for the Life Quality of the PsychoPhysical Disability

Authors: Adriana De Serio, Donato Forenza

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Aims. In this experimental research the Authors present the methodological plan “Musictherapy and Gardentherapy” that they created interconnected with the garden landscape ecosystems and aimed at PsychoPhysical Disability (MusGarPPhyD). In the context of the environmental education aimed at spreading the landscape culture and its values, it’s necessary to develop a solid perception of the environment sustainability to implement a multidimensional approach that pays attention to the conservation and enhancement of gardens and natural environments. The result is an improvement in the life quality also in compliance with the objectives of the European Agenda 2030. The MusGarPPhyD can help professionals such as musictherapists and environmental and landscape researchers strengthen subjects' motivation to learn to deal with the psychophysical discomfort associated with disability and to cope with the distress and the psychological fragility and the loneliness and the social seclusion and to promote productive social relationships. Materials and Methods. The MusGarPPhyD was implemented in multiple spaces. The musictherapy treatments took place first inside residential therapeutic centres and then in the garden landscape ecosystem. Patients: twenty, set in two groups. Weekly-sessions (50’) for three months. Methodological phases: - Phase P1. MusicTherapy treatments for each group in the indoor spaces. - Phase P2. MusicTherapy sessions inside the gardens. After each Phase, P1 and P2: - a Questionnaire for each patient (ten items / liking-indices) was administrated at t0 time, during the treatment and at tn time at the end of the treatment. - Monitoring of patients' behavioral responses through assessment scales, matrix, table and graph system. MusicTherapy methodology: pazient Sonorous-Musical Anamnesis, Musictherapy Assessment Document, Observation Protocols, Bodily-Environmental-Rhythmical-Sonorous-Vocal-Energy production first indoors and then outside, sonorous-musical instruments and edible instruments made by the Author/musictherapist with some foods; Administration of Patient-Environment-Music Index at time to and tn, to estimate the patient’s behavior evolution, Musictherapeutic Advancement Index. Results. The MusGarPPhyD can strengthen the individual sense of identity and improve the psychophysical skills and the resilience to face and to overcome the difficulties caused by the congenital /acquired disability. The multi-sensory perceptions deriving from contact with the plants in the gardens improve the psychological well-being and regulate the physiological parameters such as blood pressure, cardiac and respiratory rhythm, reducing the cholesterol levels. The secretions of the peptide hormones endorphins and the endogenous opioids enkephalins increase and bring a state of patient’s tranquillity and a better mood. The subjects showed a preference for musictherapy treatments within a setting made up of gardens and peculiar landscape systems. This resulted in greater health benefits. Conclusions. The MusGarPPhyD contributes to reduce psychophysical tensions, anxiety, depression and stress, facilitating the connections between the cerebral hemispheres, thus also improving intellectual performances, self-confidence, motor skills and social interactions. Therefore it is necessary to design hospitals, rehabilitation centers, nursing homes, surrounded by gardens. Ecosystems of natural and urban parks and gardens create fascinating skyline and mosaics of landscapes rich in beauty and biodiversity. The MusGarPPhyD is useful for the health management promoting patient’s psychophysical activation, better mood/affective-tone and relastionships and contributing significantly to improving the life quality.

Keywords: musictherapy, gardentherapy, disability, life quality

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69 Telemedicine for Telerehabilitation in Areas Affected by Social Conflicts in Colombia

Authors: Lilia Edit Aparicio Pico, Paulo Cesar Coronado Sánchez, Roberto Ferro Escobar

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This paper presents the implementation of telemedicine services for physiotherapy, occupational therapy, and speech therapy rehabilitation, utilizing telebroadcasting of audiovisual content to enhance comprehensive patient recovery in rural areas of San Vicente del Caguán municipality, characterized by high levels of social conflict in Colombia. The region faces challenges such as dysfunctional problems, physical rehabilitation needs, and a high prevalence of hearing diseases, leading to neglect and substandard health services. Limited access to healthcare due to communication barriers and transportation difficulties exacerbates these issues. To address these challenges, a research initiative was undertaken to leverage information and communication technologies (ICTs) to improve healthcare quality and accessibility for this vulnerable population. The primary objective was to develop a tele-rehabilitation system to provide asynchronous online therapies and teleconsultation services for patient follow-up during the recovery process. The project comprises two components: Communication systems and human development. A technological component involving the establishment of a wireless network connecting rural centers and the development of a mobile application for video-based therapy delivery. Communications systems will be provided by a radio link that utilizes internet provided by the Colombian government, located in the municipality of San Vicente del Caguán to connect two rural centers (Pozos and Tres Esquinas) and a mobile application for managing videos for asynchronous broadcasting in sidewalks and patients' homes. This component constitutes an operational model integrating information and telecommunications technologies. The second component involves pedagogical and human development. The primary focus is on the patient, where performance indicators and the efficiency of therapy support were evaluated for the assessment and monitoring of telerehabilitation results in physical, occupational, and speech therapy. They wanted to implement a wireless network to ensure audiovisual content transmission for tele-rehabilitation, design audiovisual content for tele-rehabilitation based on services provided by the ESE Hospital San Rafael in physiotherapy, occupational therapy, and speech therapy, develop a software application for fixed and mobile devices enabling access to tele-rehabilitation audiovisual content for healthcare personnel and patients and finally to evaluate the technological solution's contribution to the ESE Hospital San Rafael community. The research comprised four phases: wireless network implementation, audiovisual content design, software application development, and evaluation of the technological solution's impact. Key findings include the successful implementation of virtual teletherapy, both synchronously and asynchronously, and the assessment of technological performance indicators, patient evolution, timeliness, acceptance, and service quality of tele-rehabilitation therapies. The study demonstrated improved service coverage, increased care supply, enhanced access to timely therapies for patients, and positive acceptance of teletherapy modalities. Additionally, the project generated new knowledge for potential replication in other regions and proposed strategies for short- and medium-term improvement of service quality and care indicators

Keywords: e-health, medical informatics, telemedicine, telerehabilitation, virtual therapy

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68 Interference of Polymers Addition in Wastewaters Microbial Survey: Case Study of Viral Retention in Sludges

Authors: Doriane Delafosse, Dominique Fontvieille

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Background: Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) generally display significant efficacy in virus retention yet, are sometimes highly variable, partly in relation to large fluctuating loads at the head of the plant and partly because of episodic dysfunctions in some treatment processes. The problem is especially sensitive when human enteric viruses, such as human Noroviruses Genogroup I or Adenoviruses, are in concern: their release downstream WWTP, in environments often interconnected to recreational areas, may be very harmful to human communities even at low concentrations. It points out the importance of WWTP permanent monitoring from which their internal treatment processes could be adjusted. One way to adjust primary treatments is to add coagulants and flocculants to sewage ahead settling tanks to improve decantation. In this work, sludge produced by three coagulants (two organics, one mineral), four flocculants (three cationic, one anionic), and their combinations were studied for their efficacy in human enteric virus retention. Sewage samples were coming from a WWTP in the vicinity of the laboratory. All experiments were performed three times and in triplicates in laboratory pilots, using Murine Norovirus (MNV-1), a surrogate of human Norovirus, as an internal control (spiking). Viruses were quantified by (RT-)qPCR after nucleic acid extraction from both treated water and sediment. Results: Low values of sludge virus retention (from 4 to 8% of the initial sewage concentration) were observed with each cationic organic flocculant added to wastewater and no coagulant. The largest part of the virus load was detected in the treated water (48 to 90%). However, it was not counterbalancing the amount of the introduced virus (MNV-1). The results pertained to two types of cationic flocculants, branched and linear, and in the last case, to two percentages of cations. Results were quite similar to the association of a linear cationic organic coagulant and an anionic flocculant, though suggesting that differences between water and sludges would sometimes be related to virus size or virus origins (autochthonous/allochthonous). FeCl₃, as a mineral coagulant associated with an anionic flocculant, significantly increased both auto- and allochthonous virus retention in the sediments (15 to 34%). Accordingly, virus load in treated water was lower (14 to 48%) but with a total that still does not reach the amount of the introduced virus (MNV-1). It also appeared that the virus retrieval in a bare 0.1M NaCl suspension varied rather strongly according to the FeCl₃ concentration, suggesting an inhibiting effect on the molecular analysis used to detect the virus. Finally, no viruses were detected in both phases (sediment and water) with the combination branched cationic coagulant-linear anionic flocculant, which was later demonstrated as an effect, here also, of polymers on the virus detection-molecular analysis. Conclusions: The combination of FeCl₃-anionic flocculant gave its highest performance to the decantation-based virus removal process. However, large unbalanced values in spiking experiments were observed, suggesting that polymers cast additional obstacles to both elution buffer and lysis buffer on their way to reach the virus. The situation was probably even worse with autochthonous viruses already embedded into sewage's particulate matter. Polymers and FeCl₃ also appeared to interfere in some steps of molecular analyses. More attention should be paid to such impediments wherever chemical additives are considered to be used to enhance WWTP processes. Acknowledgments: This research was supported by the ABIOLAB laboratory (Montbonnot Saint-Martin, France) and by the ASPOSAN association. Field experiments were possible thanks to the Grand Chambéry WWTP authorities (Chambéry, France).

Keywords: flocculants-coagulants, polymers, enteric viruses, wastewater sedimentation treatment plant

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67 Socio-Economic Determinants of Physical Activity of Non-Manual Workers, Including the Early Senior Group, from the City of Wroclaw in Poland

Authors: Daniel Puciato, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Michał Rozpara, Władysław Mynarski, Agnieszka Gawlik, Małgorzata Dębska, Soňa Jandová

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Physical activity as a part of people’s everyday life reduces the risk of many diseases, including those induced by lifestyle, e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, coronary heart disease, degenerative arthritis, and certain types of cancer. That refers particularly to professionally active people, including the early senior group working on non-manual positions. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between physical activity and the socio-economic status of non-manual workers from Wroclaw—one of the biggest cities in Poland, a model setting for such investigations in this part of Europe. The crucial problem in the research is to find out the percentage of respondents who meet the health-related recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the volume, frequency, and intensity of physical activity, as well as to establish if the most important socio-economic factors, such as gender, age, education, marital status, per capita income, savings and debt, determine the compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations. During the research, conducted in 2013, 1,170 people (611 women and 559 men) aged 21–60 years were examined. A diagnostic poll method was applied to collect the data. Physical activity was measured with the use of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire with extended socio-demographic questions, i.e. concerning gender, age, education, marital status, income, savings or debts. To evaluate the relationship between physical activity and selected socio-economic factors, logistic regression was used (odds ratio statistics). Statistical inference was conducted on the adopted ex ante probability level of p<0.05. The majority of respondents met the volume of physical effort recommended for health benefits. It was particularly noticeable in the case of the examined men. The probability of compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations was highest for workers aged 21–30 years with secondary or higher education who were single, received highest incomes and had savings. The results indicate the relations between physical activity and socio-economic status in the examined women and men. People with lower socio-economic status (e.g. manual workers) are physically active primarily at work, whereas those better educated and wealthier implement physical effort primarily in their leisure time. Among the investigated subjects, the youngest group of non-manual workers have the best chances to meet the WHO standards of physical activity. The study also confirms that secondary education has a positive effect on the public awareness on the role of physical activity in human life. In general, the analysis of the research indicates that there is a relationship between physical activity and some socio-economic factors of the respondents, such as gender, age, education, marital status, income per capita, and the possession of savings. Although the obtained results cannot be applied for the general population, they show some important trends that will be verified in subsequent studies conducted by the authors of the paper.

Keywords: IPAQ, nonmanual workers, physical activity, socioeconomic factors, WHO

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66 Making the Right Call for Falls: Evaluating the Efficacy of a Multi-Faceted Trust Wide Approach to Improving Patient Safety Post Falls

Authors: Jawaad Saleem, Hannah Wright, Peter Sommerville, Adrian Hopper

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Introduction: Inpatient falls are the most commonly reported patient safety incidents, and carry a significant burden on resources, morbidity, and mortality. Ensuring adequate post falls management of patients by staff is therefore paramount to maintaining patient safety especially in out of hours and resource stretched settings. Aims: This quality improvement project aims to improve the current practice of falls management at Guys St Thomas Hospital, London as compared to our 2016 Quality Improvement Project findings. Furthermore, it looks to increase current junior doctors confidence in managing falls and their use of new guidance protocols. Methods: Multifaceted Interventions implemented included: the development of new trust wide guidelines detailing management pathways for patients post falls, available for intranet access. Furthermore, the production of 2000 lanyard cards distributed amongst junior doctors and staff which summarised these guidelines. Additionally, a ‘safety signal’ email was sent from the Trust chief medical officer to all staff raising awareness of falls and the guidelines. Formal falls teaching was also implemented for new doctors at induction. Using an established incident database, 189 consecutive falls in 2017were retrospectively analysed electronically to assess and compared to the variables measured in 2016 post interventions. A separate serious incident database was used to analyse 50 falls from May 2015 to March 2018 to ascertain the statistical significance of the impact of our interventions on serious incidents. A similar questionnaire for the 2017 cohort of foundation year one (FY1) doctors was performed and compared to 2016 results. Results: Questionnaire data demonstrated improved awareness and utility of guidelines and increased confidence as well as an increase in training. 97% of FY1 trainees felt that the interventions had increased their awareness of the impact of falls on patients in the trust. Data from the incident database demonstrated the time to review patients post fall had decreased from an average of 130 to 86 minutes. Improvement was also demonstrated in the reduced time to order and schedule X-ray and CT imaging, 3 and 5 hours respectively. Data from the serious incident database show that ‘the time from fall until harm was detected’ was statistically significantly lower (P = 0.044) post intervention. We also showed the incidence of significant delays in detecting harm ( > 10 hours) reduced post intervention. Conclusions: Our interventions have helped to significantly reduce the average time to assess, order and schedule appropriate imaging post falls. Delays of over ten hours to detect serious injuries after falls were commonplace; since the intervention, their frequency has markedly reduced. We suggest this will lead to identifying patient harm sooner, reduced clinical incidents relating to falls and thus improve overall patient safety. Our interventions have also helped increase clinical staff confidence, management, and awareness of falls in the trust. Next steps include expanding teaching sessions, improving multidisciplinary team involvement to aid this improvement.

Keywords: patient safety, quality improvement, serious incidents, falls, clinical care

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65 Testing a Dose-Response Model of Intergenerational Transmission of Family Violence

Authors: Katherine Maurer

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Background and purpose: Violence that occurs within families is a global social problem. Children who are victims or witness to family violence are at risk for many negative effects both proximally and distally. One of the most disconcerting long-term effects occurs when child victims become adult perpetrators: the intergenerational transmission of family violence (ITFV). Early identification of those children most at risk for ITFV is needed to inform interventions to prevent future family violence perpetration and victimization. Only about 25-30% of child family violence victims become perpetrators of adult family violence (either child abuse, partner abuse, or both). Prior research has primarily been conducted using dichotomous measures of exposure (yes; no) to predict ITFV, given the low incidence rate in community samples. It is often assumed that exposure to greater amounts of violence predicts greater risk of ITFV. However, no previous longitudinal study with a community sample has tested a dose-response model of exposure to physical child abuse and parental physical intimate partner violence (IPV) using count data of frequency and severity of violence to predict adult ITFV. The current study used advanced statistical methods to test if increased childhood exposure would predict greater risk of ITFV. Methods: The study utilized 3 panels of prospective data from a cohort of 15 year olds (N=338) from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods longitudinal study. The data were comprised of a stratified probability sample of seven ethnic/racial categories and three socio-economic status levels. Structural equation modeling was employed to test a hurdle regression model of dose-response to predict ITFV. A version of the Conflict Tactics Scale was used to measure physical violence victimization, witnessing parental IPV and young adult IPV perpetration and victimization. Results: Consistent with previous findings, past 12 months incidence rates severity and frequency of interpersonal violence were highly skewed. While rates of parental and young adult IPV were about 40%, an unusually high rate of physical child abuse (57%) was reported. The vast majority of a number of acts of violence, whether minor or severe, were in the 1-3 range in the past 12 months. Reported frequencies of more than 5 times in the past year were rare, with less than 10% of those reporting more than six acts of minor or severe physical violence. As expected, minor acts of violence were much more common than acts of severe violence. Overall, regression analyses were not significant for the dose-response model of ITFV. Conclusions and implications: The results of the dose-response model were not significant due to a lack of power in the final sample (N=338). Nonetheless, the value of the approach was confirmed for the future research given the bi-modal nature of the distributions which suggest that in the context of both child physical abuse and physical IPV, there are at least two classes when frequency of acts is considered. Taking frequency into account in predictive models may help to better understand the relationship of exposure to ITFV outcomes. Further testing using hurdle regression models is suggested.

Keywords: intergenerational transmission of family violence, physical child abuse, intimate partner violence, structural equation modeling

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64 Developing and Testing a Questionnaire of Music Memorization and Practice

Authors: Diana Santiago, Tania Lisboa, Sophie Lee, Alexander P. Demos, Monica C. S. Vasconcelos

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Memorization has long been recognized as an arduous and anxiety-evoking task for musicians, and yet, it is an essential aspect of performance. Research shows that musicians are often not taught how to memorize. While memorization and practice strategies of professionals have been studied, little research has been done to examine how student musicians learn to practice and memorize music in different cultural settings. We present the process of developing and testing a questionnaire of music memorization and musical practice for student musicians in the UK and Brazil. A survey was developed for a cross-cultural research project aiming at examining how young orchestral musicians (aged 7–18 years) in different learning environments and cultures engage in instrumental practice and memorization. The questionnaire development included members of a UK/US/Brazil research team of music educators and performance science researchers. A pool of items was developed for each aspect of practice and memorization identified, based on literature, personal experiences, and adapted from existing questionnaires. Item development took the varying levels of cognitive and social development of the target populations into consideration. It also considered the diverse target learning environments. Items were initially grouped in accordance with a single underlying construct/behavior. The questionnaire comprised three sections: a demographics section, a section on practice (containing 29 items), and a section on memorization (containing 40 items). Next, the response process was considered and a 5-point Likert scale ranging from ‘always’ to ‘never’ with a verbal label and an image assigned to each response option was selected, following effective questionnaire design for children and youths. Finally, a pilot study was conducted with young orchestral musicians from diverse learning environments in Brazil and the United Kingdom. Data collection took place in either one-to-one or group settings to facilitate the participants. Cognitive interviews were utilized to establish response process validity by confirming the readability and accurate comprehension of the questionnaire items or highlighting the need for item revision. Internal reliability was investigated by measuring the consistency of the item groups using the statistical test Cronbach’s alpha. The pilot study successfully relied on the questionnaire to generate data about the engagement of young musicians of different levels and instruments, across different learning and cultural environments, in instrumental practice and memorization. Interaction analysis of the cognitive interviews undertaken with these participants, however, exposed the fact that certain items, and the response scale, could be interpreted in multiple ways. The questionnaire text was, therefore, revised accordingly. The low Cronbach’s Alpha scores of many item groups indicated another issue with the original questionnaire: its low level of internal reliability. Several reasons for each poor reliability can be suggested, including the issues with item interpretation revealed through interaction analysis of the cognitive interviews, the small number of participants (34), and the elusive nature of the construct in question. The revised questionnaire measures 78 specific behaviors or opinions. It can be seen to provide an efficient means of gathering information about the engagement of young musicians in practice and memorization on a large scale.

Keywords: cross-cultural, memorization, practice, questionnaire, young musicians

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63 The Stability of Vegetable-Based Synbiotic Drink during Storage

Authors: Camelia Vizireanu, Daniela Istrati, Alina Georgiana Profir, Rodica Mihaela Dinica

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Globally, there is a great interest in promoting the consumption of fruit and vegetables to improve health. Due to the content of essential compounds such as antioxidants, important amounts of fruits and vegetables should be included in the daily diet. Juices are good sources of vitamins and can also help increase overall fruit and vegetable consumption. Starting from this trend (introduction into the daily diet of vegetables and fruits) as well as the desire to diversify the range of functional products for both adults and children, a fermented juice was made using probiotic microorganisms based on root vegetables, with potential beneficial effects in the diet of children, vegetarians and people with lactose intolerance. The three vegetables selected for this study, red beet, carrot, and celery bring a significant contribution to functional compounds such as carotenoids, flavonoids, betalain, vitamin B and C, minerals and fiber. By fermentation, the functional value of the vegetable juice increases due to the improved stability of these compounds. The combination of probiotic microorganisms and vegetable fibers resulted in a nutrient-rich synbiotic product. The stability of the nutritional and sensory qualities of the obtained synbiotic product has been tested throughout its shelf life. The evaluation of the physico-chemical changes of the synbiotic drink during storage confirmed that: (i) vegetable juice enriched with honey and vegetable pulp is an important source of nutritional compounds, especially carbohydrates and fiber; (ii) microwave treatment used to inhibit pathogenic microflora did not significantly affect nutritional compounds in vegetable juice, vitamin C concentration remained at baseline and beta-carotene concentration increased due to increased bioavailability; (iii) fermentation has improved the nutritional quality of vegetable juice by increasing the content of B vitamins, polyphenols and flavonoids and has a good antioxidant capacity throughout the shelf life; (iv) the FTIR and Raman spectra have highlighted the results obtained using physicochemical methods. Based on the analysis of IR absorption frequencies, the most striking bands belong to the frequencies 3330 cm⁻¹, 1636 cm⁻¹ and 1050 cm⁻¹, specific for groups of compounds such as polyphenols, carbohydrates, fatty acids, and proteins. Statistical data processing revealed a good correlation between the content of flavonoids, betalain, β-carotene, ascorbic acid and polyphenols, the fermented juice having a stable antioxidant activity. Also, principal components analysis showed that there was a negative correlation between the evolution of the concentration of B vitamins and antioxidant activity. Acknowledgment: This study has been founded by the Francophone University Agency, Project Réseau régional dans le domaine de la santé, la nutrition et la sécurité alimentaire (SaIN), No. at Dunarea de Jos University of Galati 21899/ 06.09.2017 and by the Sectorial Operational Programme Human Resources Development of the Romanian Ministry of Education, Research, Youth and Sports trough the Financial Agreement POSDRU/159/1.5/S/132397 ExcelDOC.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, fermentation, synbiotic drink from vegetables, stability during storage

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62 Predicting Career Adaptability and Optimism among University Students in Turkey: The Role of Personal Growth Initiative and Socio-Demographic Variables

Authors: Yagmur Soylu, Emir Ozeren, Erol Esen, Digdem M. Siyez, Ozlem Belkis, Ezgi Burc, Gülce Demirgurz

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to determine the predictive power of personal growth initiative, socio-demographic variables (such as sex, grade, and working condition) on career adaptability and optimism of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University in Turkey. According to career construction theory, career adaptability is viewed as a psychosocial construct, which refers to an individual’s resources for dealing with current and expected tasks, transitions and traumas in their occupational roles. Career optimism is defined as positive results for future career development of individuals in the expectation that it will achieve or to put the emphasis on the positive aspects of the event and feel comfortable about the career planning process. Personal Growth Initiative (PGI) is defined as being proactive about one’s personal development. Additionally, personal growth is defined as the active and intentional engagement in the process of personal. A study conducted on college students revealed that individuals with high self-development orientation make more effort to discover the requirements of the profession and workspaces than individuals with low levels of personal development orientation. University life is a period that social relations and the importance of academic activities are increased, the students make efforts to progress through their career paths and it is also an environment that offers opportunities to students for their self-realization. For these reasons, personal growth initiative is potentially an important variable which has a key role for an individual during the transition phase from university to the working life. Based on the review of the literature, it is expected that individual’s personal growth initiative, sex, grade, and working condition would significantly predict one’s career adaptability. In the relevant literature, it can be seen that there are relatively few studies available on the career adaptability and optimism of university students. Most of the existing studies have been carried out with limited respondents. In this study, the authors aim to conduct a comprehensive research with a large representative sample of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey. By now, personal growth initiative and career development constructs have been predominantly discussed in western contexts where individualistic tendencies are likely to be seen. Thus, the examination of the same relationship within the context of Turkey where collectivistic cultural characteristics can be more observed is expected to offer valuable insights and provide an important contribution to the literature. The participants in this study were comprised of 1500 undergraduate students being included from thirteen faculties in Dokuz Eylul University. Stratified and random sampling methods were adopted for the selection of the participants. The Personal Growth Initiative Scale-II and Career Futures Inventory were used as the major measurement tools. In data analysis stage, several statistical analysis concerning the regression analysis, one-way ANOVA and t-test will be conducted to reveal the relationships of the constructs under investigation. At the end of this project, we will be able to determine the level of career adaptability and optimism of university students at varying degrees so that a fertile ground is likely to be created to carry out several intervention techniques to make a contribution to an emergence of a healthier and more productive youth generation in psycho-social sense.

Keywords: career optimism, career adaptability, personal growth initiative, university students

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61 Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor and It's Precursor ProBDNF Serum Levels in Adolescents with Mood Disorders: 2-Year Follow-Up Study

Authors: M. Skibinska, A. Rajewska-Rager, M. Dmitrzak-Weglarz, N. Lepczynska, P. Sibilski, P. Kapelski, J. Pawlak, J. Twarowska-Hauser

Abstract:

Introduction: Neurotrophic factors have been implicated in neuropsychiatric disorders. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) influences neuron differentiation in development as well as synaptic plasticity and neuron survival in adulthood. BDNF is widely studied in mood disorders and has been proposed as a biomarker for depression. BDNF is synthesized as precursor protein – proBDNF. Both forms are biologically active and exert opposite effects on neurons. Aim: The aim of the study was to examine the serum levels of BDNF and proBDNF in unipolar and bipolar young patients below 24 years old during hypo/manic, depressive episodes and in remission compared to healthy control group. Methods: In a prospective 2 years follow-up study, we investigated alterations in levels of BDNF and proBDNF in 79 patients (23 males, mean age 19.08, SD 3.3 and 56 females, mean age 18.39, SD 3.28) diagnosed with mood disorders: unipolar and bipolar disorder compared with 35 healthy control subjects (7 males, mean age 20.43, SD 4.23 and 28 females, mean age 21.25, SD 2.11). Clinical characteristics including mood, comorbidity, family history, and treatment, were evaluated during control visits and clinical symptoms were rated using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and Young Mania Rating Scale. Serum BDNF and proBDNF concentrations were determined by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA) method. Serum BDNF and proBDNF levels were analysed with covariates: sex, age, age > 18 and < 18 years old, family history of affective disorders, drug-free vs. medicated status. Normality of the data was tested using Shapiro-Wilk test. Levene’s test was used to calculate homogeneity of variance. Non-parametric Tests: Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, Friedman’s ANOVA, Wilcoxon signed rank test, Spearman correlation coefficient were applied in analyses The statistical significance level was set at p < 0.05. Results: BDNF and proBDNF serum levels did not differ between patients at baseline and controls as well as comparing patients in acute episode of depression/hypo/mania at baseline and euthymia (at month 3 or 6). Comparing BDNF and proBDNF levels between patients in euthymia and control group no differences have been found. Increased BDNF level in women compared to men at baseline (p=0.01) have been observed. BDNF level at baseline was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurence at 24 month (p=0.04). BDNF level at 12 month was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurence at 12 month (p=0.01). Correlation of BDNF level with sex have been detected (p=0.01). proBDNF levels at month 3, 6 and 12 negatively correlated with disease status (p=0.02, p=0.008, p=0.009, respectively). No other correlations of BDNF and proBDNF levels with clinical and demographical variables have been detected. Discussion: Our results did not show any differences in BDNF and proBDNF levels between depression, mania, euthymia, and controls. Imbalance in BDNF/proBDNF signalling may be involved in pathogenesis of mood disorders. Further studies on larger groups are recommended. Grant was founded by National Science Center in Poland no 2011/03/D/NZ5/06146.

Keywords: bipolar disorder, Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF), proBDNF, unipolar depression

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60 Development of a Core Set of Clinical Indicators to Measure Quality of Care for Thyroid Cancer: A Modified-Delphi Approach

Authors: Liane J. Ioannou, Jonathan Serpell, Cino Bendinelli, David Walters, Jenny Gough, Dean Lisewski, Win Meyer-Rochow, Julie Miller, Duncan Topliss, Bill Fleming, Stephen Farrell, Andrew Kiu, James Kollias, Mark Sywak, Adam Aniss, Linda Fenton, Danielle Ghusn, Simon Harper, Aleksandra Popadich, Kate Stringer, David Watters, Susannah Ahern

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: There are significant variations in the management, treatment and outcomes of thyroid cancer, particularly in the role of: diagnostic investigation and pre-treatment scanning; optimal extent of surgery (total or hemi-thyroidectomy); use of active surveillance for small low-risk cancers; central lymph node dissections (therapeutic or prophylactic); outcomes following surgery (e.g. recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy, hypocalcaemia, hypoparathyroidism); post-surgical hormone, calcium and vitamin D therapy; and provision and dosage of radioactive iodine treatment. A proven strategy to reduce variations in the outcome and to improve survival is to measure and compare it using high-quality clinical registry data. Clinical registries provide the most effective means of collecting high-quality data and are a tool for quality improvement. Where they have been introduced at a state or national level, registries have become one of the most clinically valued tools for quality improvement. To benchmark clinical care, clinical quality registries require systematic measurement at predefined intervals and the capacity to report back information to participating clinical units. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a core set clinical indicators that enable measurement and reporting of quality of care for patients with thyroid cancer. We hypothesise that measuring clinical quality indicators, developed to identify differences in quality of care across sites, will reduce variation and improve patient outcomes and survival, thereby lessening costs and healthcare burden to the Australian community. METHOD: Preparatory work and scoping was conducted to identify existing high quality, clinical guidelines and best practice for thyroid cancer both nationally and internationally, as well as relevant literature. A bi-national panel was invited to participate in a modified Delphi process. Panelists were asked to rate each proposed indicator on a Likert scale of 1–9 in a three-round iterative process. RESULTS: A total of 236 potential quality indicators were identified. One hundred and ninety-two indicators were removed to reflect the data capture by the Australian and New Zealand Thyroid Cancer Registry (ANZTCR) (from diagnosis to 90-days post-surgery). The remaining 44 indicators were presented to the panelists for voting. A further 21 indicators were later added by the panelists bringing the total potential quality indicators to 65. Of these, 21 were considered the most important and feasible indicators to measure quality of care in thyroid cancer, of which 12 were recommended for inclusion in the final set. The consensus indicator set spans the spectrum of care, including: preoperative; surgery; surgical complications; staging and post-surgical treatment planning; and post-surgical treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a core set of quality indicators to measure quality of care in thyroid cancer. This indicator set can be applied as a tool for internal quality improvement, comparative quality reporting, public reporting and research. Inclusion of these quality indicators into monitoring databases such as clinical quality registries will enable opportunities for benchmarking and feedback on best practice care to clinicians involved in the management of thyroid cancer.

Keywords: clinical registry, Delphi survey, quality indicators, quality of care

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59 Role of Toll Like Receptor-2 in Female Genital Tuberculosis Disease Infection and Its Severity

Authors: Swati Gautam, Salman Akhtar, S. P. Jaiswar, Amita Jain

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Background: FGTB is now a major global health problem mostly in developing countries including India. In humans, Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (M.tb) is a causating agent of infection. High index of suspicion is required for early diagnosis due to asymptomatic presentation of FGTB disease. In macrophages Toll Like Receptor-2 (TLR-2) is one which mediated host’s immune response to M.tb. The expression of TLR-2 on macrophages is important to determine the fate of innate immune responses to M.tb. TLR-2 have two work. First its high expression on macrophages worsen the outer of infection and another side, it maintains M.tb to its dormant stage avoids activation of M.tb from latent phase. Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) of TLR-2 gene plays an important role in susceptibility to TB among different populations and subsequently, in the development of infertility. Methodology: This Case-Control study was done in the Department of Obs and Gynae and Department of Microbiology at King George’s Medical University, U.P, Lucknow, India. Total 300 subjects (150 Cases and 150 Controls) were enrolled in the study. All subjects were enrolled only after fulfilling the given inclusion and exclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria: Age 20-35 years, menstrual-irregularities, positive on Acid-Fast Bacilli (AFB), TB-PCR, (LJ/MGIT) culture in Endometrial Aspiration (EA). Exclusion criteria: Koch’s active, on ATT, PCOS, and Endometriosis fibroid women, positive on Gonococal and Chlamydia. Blood samples were collected in EDTA tubes from cases and healthy control women (HCW) and genomic DNA extraction was carried out by salting-out method. Genotyping of TLR2 genetic variants (Arg753Gln and Arg677Trp) were performed by using single amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS) PCR technique. PCR products were analyzed by electrophoresis on 1.2% agarose gel and visualized by gel-doc. Statistical analysis of the data was performed using the SPSS 16.3 software and computing odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI. Linkage Disequiliribium (LD) analysis was done by SNP stats online software. Results: In TLR-2 (Arg753Gln) polymorphism significant risk of FGTB observed with GG homozygous mutant genotype (OR=13, CI=0.71-237.7, p=0.05), AG heterozygous mutant genotype (OR=13.7, CI=0.76-248.06, p=0.03) however, G allele (OR=1.09, CI=0.78-1.52, p=0.67) individually was not associated with FGTB. In TLR-2 (Arg677Trp) polymorphism a significant risk of FGTB observed with TT homozygous mutant genotype (OR= 0.020, CI=0.001-0.341, p < 0.001), CT heterozygous mutant genotype (OR=0.53, CI=0.33-0.86, p=0.014) and T allele (OR=0.463, CI=0.32-0.66, p < 0.001). TT mutant genotype was only found in FGTB cases and frequency of CT heterozygous more in control group as compared to FGTB group. So, CT genotype worked as protective mutation for FGTB susceptibility group. In haplotype analysis of TLR-2 genetic variants, four possible combinations, i.e. (G-T, A-C, G-C, and A-T) were obtained. The frequency of haplotype A-C was significantly higher in FGTB cases (0.32). Control group did not show A-C haplotype and only found in FGTB cases. Conclusion: In conclusion, study showed a significant association with both genetic variants of TLR-2 of FGTB disease. Moreover, the presence of specific associated genotype/alleles suggest the possibility of disease severity and clinical approach aimed to prevent extensive damage by disease and also helpful for early detection of disease.

Keywords: ARMS, EDTA, FGTB, TLR

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58 The Use of Modern Technologies and Computers in the Archaeological Surveys of Sistan in Eastern Iran

Authors: Mahyar MehrAfarin

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The Sistan region in eastern Iran is a significant archaeological area in Iran and the Middle East, encompassing 10,000 square kilometers. Previous archeological field surveys have identified 1662 ancient sites dating from prehistoric periods to the Islamic period. Research Aim: This article aims to explore the utilization of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, and the benefits derived from their implementation. Methodology: The research employs a descriptive-analytical approach combined with field methods. New technologies and software, such as GPS, drones, magnetometers, equipped cameras, satellite images, and software programs like GIS, Map source, and Excel, were utilized to collect information and analyze data. Findings: The use of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys proved to be essential. Traditional archaeological activities, such as excavation and field surveys, are time-consuming and costly. Employing modern technologies helps in preserving ancient sites, accurately recording archaeological data, reducing errors and mistakes, and facilitating correct and accurate analysis. Creating a comprehensive and accessible database, generating statistics, and producing graphic designs and diagrams are additional advantages derived from the use of efficient technologies in archaeology. Theoretical Importance: The integration of computers and modern technologies in archaeology contributes to interdisciplinary collaborations and facilitates the involvement of specialists from various fields, such as geography, history, art history, anthropology, laboratory sciences, and computer engineering. The utilization of computers in archaeology spanned across diverse areas, including database creation, statistical analysis, graphics implementation, laboratory and engineering applications, and even artificial intelligence, which remains an unexplored area in Iranian archaeology. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Information was collected using modern technologies and software, capturing geographic coordinates, aerial images, archeogeophysical data, and satellite images. This data was then inputted into various software programs for analysis, including GIS, Map source, and Excel. The research employed both descriptive and analytical methods to present findings effectively. Question Addressed: The primary question addressed in this research is how the use of modern technologies and computers in archeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, can enhance archaeological data collection, preservation, analysis, and accessibility. Conclusion: The utilization of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, has proven to be necessary and beneficial. These technologies aid in preserving ancient sites, accurately recording archaeological data, reducing errors, and facilitating comprehensive analysis. The creation of accessible databases, statistics generation, graphic designs, and interdisciplinary collaborations are further advantages observed. It is recommended to explore the potential of artificial intelligence in Iranian archaeology as an unexplored area. The research has implications for cultural heritage organizations, archaeology students, and universities involved in archaeological field surveys in Sistan and Baluchistan province. Additionally, it contributes to enhancing the understanding and preservation of Iran's archaeological heritage.

Keywords: Iran, sistan, archaeological surveys, computer use, modern technologies

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57 Identifying the Conservation Gaps in Poorly Studied Protected Area in the Philippines: A Study Case of Sibuyan Island

Authors: Roven Tumaneng, Angelica Kristina Monzon, Ralph Sedricke Lapuz, Jose Don De Alban, Jennica Paula Masigan, Joanne Rae Pales, Laila Monera Pornel, Dennis Tablazon, Rizza Karen Veridiano, Jackie Lou Wenceslao, Edmund Leo Rico, Neil Aldrin Mallari

Abstract:

Most protected area management plans in the Philippines, particularly the smaller and more remote islands suffer from insufficient baseline data, which should provide the bases for formulating measureable conservation targets and appropriate management interventions for these protected areas. Attempts to synthesize available data particularly on cultural and socio-economic characteristic of local peoples within and outside protected areas also suffer from the lack of comprehensive and detailed inventories, which should be considered in designing adaptive management interventions to be used for those protected areas. Mt Guiting-guiting Natural Park (MGGNP) located in Sibuyan Island is one of the poorly studied protected areas in the Philippines. In this study, we determined the highly biologically important areas of the protected area using Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt) from environmental predictors (i.e., topographic, bioclimatic,land cover, and soil image layers) derived from global remotely sensed data and point occurrence data of species of birds and trees recorded during field surveys on the island. A total of 23 trigger species of birds and trees was modeled and stacked to generate species richness maps for biological high conservation value areas (HCVAs). Forest habitat change was delineated using dual-polarised L-band ALOS-PALSAR mosaic data at 25 meter spatial resolution, taken at two acquisition years 2007 and 2009 to provide information on forest cover ad habitat change in the island between year 2007 and 2009. Determining the livelihood guilds were also conducted using the data gathered from171 household interviews, from which demographic and livelihood variables were extracted (i.e., age, gender, number of household members, educational attainment, years of residency, distance from forest edge, main occupation, alternative sources of food and resources during scarcity months, and sources of these alternative resources).Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Kruskal-Wallis test, the diversity and patterns of forest resource use by people in the island were determined with particular focus on the economic activities that directly and indirectly affect the population of key species as well as to identify levels of forest resource use by people in different areas of the park.Results showed that there are gaps in the area occupied by the natural park, as evidenced by the mismatch of the proposed HCVAs and the existing perimeters of the park. We found out that subsistence forest gathering was the possible main driver for forest degradation out of the eight livelihood guilds that were identified in the park. Determining the high conservation areas and identifyingthe anthropogenic factors that influence the species richness and abundance of key species in the different management zone of MGGNP would provide guidance for the design of a protected area management plan and future monitoring programs. However, through intensive communication and consultation with government stakeholders and local communities our results led to setting conservation targets in local development plans and serve as a basis for the reposition of the boundaries and reconfiguration of the management zones of MGGNP.

Keywords: conservation gaps, livelihood guilds, MaxEnt, protected area

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56 Pre-Cancerigene Injuries Related to Human Papillomavirus: Importance of Cervicography as a Complementary Diagnosis Method

Authors: Denise De Fátima Fernandes Barbosa, Tyane Mayara Ferreira Oliveira, Diego Jorge Maia Lima, Paula Renata Amorim Lessa, Ana Karina Bezerra Pinheiro, Cintia Gondim Pereira Calou, Glauberto Da Silva Quirino, Hellen Lívia Oliveira Catunda, Tatiana Gomes Guedes, Nicolau Da Costa

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of Digital Cervicography (DC) in the diagnosis of precancerous lesions related to Human Papillomavirus (HPV). Cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, of evaluative type, held in a health unit linked to the Pro Dean of Extension of the Federal University of Ceará, in the period of July to August 2015 with a sample of 33 women. Data collecting was conducted through interviews with enforcement tool. Franco (2005) standardized the technique used for DC. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was performed to identify high-risk HPV genotypes. DC were evaluated and classified by 3 judges. The results of DC and PCR were classified as positive, negative or inconclusive. The data of the collecting instruments were compiled and analyzed by the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) with descriptive statistics and cross-references. Sociodemographic, sexual and reproductive variables were analyzed through absolute frequencies (N) and their respective percentage (%). Kappa coefficient (κ) was applied to determine the existence of agreement between the DC of reports among evaluators with PCR and also among the judges about the DC results. The Pearson's chi-square test was used for analysis of sociodemographic, sexual and reproductive variables with the PCR reports. It was considered statistically significant (p<0.05). Ethical aspects of research involving human beings were respected, according to 466/2012 Resolution. Regarding the socio-demographic profile, the most prevalent ages and equally were those belonging to the groups 21-30 and 41-50 years old (24.2%). The brown color was reported in excess (84.8%) and 96.9% out of them had completed primary and secondary school or studying. 51.5% were married, 72.7% Catholic, 54.5% employed and 48.5% with income between one and two minimum wages. As for the sexual and reproductive characteristics, prevailed heterosexual (93.9%) who did not use condoms during sexual intercourse (72.7%). 51.5% had a previous history of Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI), and HPV the most prevalent STI (76.5%). 57.6% did not use contraception, 78.8% underwent examination Cancer Prevention Uterus (PCCU) with shorter time interval or equal to one year, 72.7% had no cases of Cervical Cancer in the family, 63.6% were multiparous and 97% were not vaccinated against HPV. DC identified good level of agreement between raters (κ=0.542), had a specificity of 77.8% and sensitivity of 25% when compared their results with PCR. Only the variable race showed a statistically significant association with CRP (p=0.042). DC had 100% acceptance amongst women in the sample, revealing the possibility of other experiments in using this method so that it proves as a viable technique. The DC positivity criteria were developed by nurses and these professionals also perform PCCU in Brazil, which means that DC can be an important complementary diagnostic method for the appreciation of these professional’s quality of examinations.

Keywords: gynecological examination, human papillomavirus, nursing, papillomavirus infections, uterine lasmsneop

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55 High Purity Germanium Detector Characterization by Means of Monte Carlo Simulation through Application of Geant4 Toolkit

Authors: Milos Travar, Jovana Nikolov, Andrej Vranicar, Natasa Todorovic

Abstract:

Over the years, High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors proved to be an excellent practical tool and, as such, have established their today's wide use in low background γ-spectrometry. One of the advantages of gamma-ray spectrometry is its easy sample preparation as chemical processing and separation of the studied subject are not required. Thus, with a single measurement, one can simultaneously perform both qualitative and quantitative analysis. One of the most prominent features of HPGe detectors, besides their excellent efficiency, is their superior resolution. This feature virtually allows a researcher to perform a thorough analysis by discriminating photons of similar energies in the studied spectra where otherwise they would superimpose within a single-energy peak and, as such, could potentially scathe analysis and produce wrongly assessed results. Naturally, this feature is of great importance when the identification of radionuclides, as well as their activity concentrations, is being practiced where high precision comes as a necessity. In measurements of this nature, in order to be able to reproduce good and trustworthy results, one has to have initially performed an adequate full-energy peak (FEP) efficiency calibration of the used equipment. However, experimental determination of the response, i.e., efficiency curves for a given detector-sample configuration and its geometry, is not always easy and requires a certain set of reference calibration sources in order to account for and cover broader energy ranges of interest. With the goal of overcoming these difficulties, a lot of researches turned towards the application of different software toolkits that implement the Monte Carlo method (e.g., MCNP, FLUKA, PENELOPE, Geant4, etc.), as it has proven time and time again to be a very powerful tool. In the process of creating a reliable model, one has to have well-established and described specifications of the detector. Unfortunately, the documentation that manufacturers provide alongside the equipment is rarely sufficient enough for this purpose. Furthermore, certain parameters tend to evolve and change over time, especially with older equipment. Deterioration of these parameters consequently decreases the active volume of the crystal and can thus affect the efficiencies by a large margin if they are not properly taken into account. In this study, the optimisation method of two HPGe detectors through the implementation of the Geant4 toolkit developed by CERN is described, with the goal of further improving simulation accuracy in calculations of FEP efficiencies by investigating the influence of certain detector variables (e.g., crystal-to-window distance, dead layer thicknesses, inner crystal’s void dimensions, etc.). Detectors on which the optimisation procedures were carried out were a standard traditional co-axial extended range detector (XtRa HPGe, CANBERRA) and a broad energy range planar detector (BEGe, CANBERRA). Optimised models were verified through comparison with experimentally obtained data from measurements of a set of point-like radioactive sources. Acquired results of both detectors displayed good agreement with experimental data that falls under an average statistical uncertainty of ∼ 4.6% for XtRa and ∼ 1.8% for BEGe detector within the energy range of 59.4−1836.1 [keV] and 59.4−1212.9 [keV], respectively.

Keywords: HPGe detector, γ spectrometry, efficiency, Geant4 simulation, Monte Carlo method

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54 Multi-Model Super Ensemble Based Advanced Approaches for Monsoon Rainfall Prediction

Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

Abstract:

Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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53 Probability Modeling and Genetic Algorithms in Small Wind Turbine Design Optimization: Mentored Interdisciplinary Undergraduate Research at LaGuardia Community College

Authors: Marina Nechayeva, Malgorzata Marciniak, Vladimir Przhebelskiy, A. Dragutan, S. Lamichhane, S. Oikawa

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This presentation is a progress report on a faculty-student research collaboration at CUNY LaGuardia Community College (LaGCC) aimed at designing a small horizontal axis wind turbine optimized for the wind patterns on the roof of our campus. Our project combines statistical and engineering research. Our wind modeling protocol is based upon a recent wind study by a faculty-student research group at MIT, and some of our blade design methods are adopted from a senior engineering project at CUNY City College. Our use of genetic algorithms has been inspired by the work on small wind turbines’ design by David Wood. We combine these diverse approaches in our interdisciplinary project in a way that has not been done before and improve upon certain techniques used by our predecessors. We employ several estimation methods to determine the best fitting parametric probability distribution model for the local wind speed data obtained through correlating short-term on-site measurements with a long-term time series at the nearby airport. The model serves as a foundation for engineering research that focuses on adapting and implementing genetic algorithms (GAs) to engineering optimization of the wind turbine design using Blade Element Momentum Theory. GAs are used to create new airfoils with desirable aerodynamic specifications. Small scale models of best performing designs are 3D printed and tested in the wind tunnel to verify the accuracy of relevant calculations. Genetic algorithms are applied to selected airfoils to determine the blade design (radial cord and pitch distribution) that would optimize the coefficient of power profile of the turbine. Our approach improves upon the traditional blade design methods in that it lets us dispense with assumptions necessary to simplify the system of Blade Element Momentum Theory equations, thus resulting in more accurate aerodynamic performance calculations. Furthermore, it enables us to design blades optimized for a whole range of wind speeds rather than a single value. Lastly, we improve upon known GA-based methods in that our algorithms are constructed to work with XFoil generated airfoils data which enables us to optimize blades using our own high glide ratio airfoil designs, without having to rely upon available empirical data from existing airfoils, such as NACA series. Beyond its immediate goal, this ongoing project serves as a training and selection platform for CUNY Research Scholars Program (CRSP) through its annual Aerodynamics and Wind Energy Research Seminar (AWERS), an undergraduate summer research boot camp, designed to introduce prospective researchers to the relevant theoretical background and methodology, get them up to speed with the current state of our research, and test their abilities and commitment to the program. Furthermore, several aspects of the research (e.g., writing code for 3D printing of airfoils) are adapted in the form of classroom research activities to enhance Calculus sequence instruction at LaGCC.

Keywords: engineering design optimization, genetic algorithms, horizontal axis wind turbine, wind modeling

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52 Modelling Spatial Dynamics of Terrorism

Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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51 Texture Characteristics and Depositional Environment of the Lower Mahi River Sediment, Mainland Gujarat, India

Authors: Shazi Farooqui, Anupam Sharma

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The Mahi River (~600km long) is an important west flowing the river of Central India. It originates in Madhya Pradesh and starts flowing in NW direction and enters into the state of Rajasthan. It flows across southern Rajasthan and then enters into Gujarat and finally debouches in the Gulf of Cambay. In Gujarat state, it flows through all four geomorphic zones i.e. eastern upland zone, shallow buried piedmont zone, alluvial zone and coastal zone. In lower reaches and particularly when it is flowing under the coastal regime, it provides an opportunity to study – 1. Land–Sea interaction and role of relative sea level changes, 2. Coastal/estuarine geological process, 3. Landscape evolution in marginal areas and so on. The Late Quaternary deposits of Mainland Gujarat is appreciably studied by Chamyal and his group of MS University of Baroda, and they have established that the 30-35m thick sediment package of the Mainland Gujarat is comprised of marine, fluvial and aeolian sediments. It is also established that in the estuarine zone, the upper few meter thick sediments package is of marine nature. However, its thickness, characters and the depositional environment including the role of climate and tectonics is still not clearly defined. To understand few aspects of the above mentioned, in the present study, a 17m subsurface sediment core has been retrieved from the estuarine zone of Mahi river basin. The Multiproxy studies which include the textural analysis (grain size), Loss on ignition (LOI), Bulk and clay mineralogy and geochemical studies have been carried out. In the entire sedimentary sequence, the grain size largely varies from coarse sand to clay; however, a solitary gravel bed is also noticed. The lower part (depth 9-17m), is mainly comprised of sub equal proportion of sand and silt. The sediments mainly have bimodal and leptokurtic distribution and deposited in alternate sand-silt package, probably indicating flood deposits. Relatively low moisture (1.8%) and organic carbon (2.4%) with increased carbonate values (12%) indicate that conditions must have to remain oxidizing. The middle part (depth 9–6m) has a 1m thick gravel bed at the bottom and overlain by coarse sand to very fine sand showing fining upward sequence. The presence of gravel bed suggests some kind of tectonic activity resulting into change in base level or enhanced precipitation in the catchment region. The upper part (depth 6–0m; top part of sequence) mainly comprised of fine sand to silt size grains (with appreciable clay content). The sediment of this part is Unimodal and very leptokurtic in nature suggesting wave and winnowing process and deposited in low energy suspension environment. This part has relatively high moisture (2.1%) and organic carbon (2.7%) with decreased carbonate content (4.2%) indicating change in the depositional environment probably under estuarine conditions. The presence of chlorite along with smectite clay mineral further supports the significant marine contribution in the formation of upper part of the sequence.

Keywords: grain size, statistical analysis, clay minerals, late quaternary, LOI

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50 Early Predictive Signs for Kasai Procedure Success

Authors: Medan Isaeva, Anna Degtyareva

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Context: Biliary atresia is a common reason for liver transplants in children, and the Kasai procedure can potentially be successful in avoiding the need for transplantation. However, it is important to identify factors that influence surgical outcomes in order to optimize treatment and improve patient outcomes. Research aim: The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models to assess the outcomes of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Methodology: This retrospective study analyzed data from 166 children with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai procedure between 2002 and 2021. The effectiveness of the operation was assessed based on specific criteria, including post-operative stool color, jaundice reduction, and bilirubin levels. The study involved a comparative analysis of various parameters, such as gestational age, birth weight, age at operation, physical development, liver and spleen sizes, and laboratory values including bilirubin, ALT, AST, and others, measured pre- and post-operation. Ultrasonographic evaluations were also conducted pre-operation, assessing the hepatobiliary system and related quantitative parameters. The study was carried out by two experienced specialists in pediatric hepatology. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were used as the primary statistical methods. Findings: The study identified several statistically significant predictors of a successful Kasai procedure, including the presence of the gallbladder and levels of cholesterol and direct bilirubin post-operation. A detectable gallbladder was associated with a higher probability of surgical success, while elevated post-operative cholesterol and direct bilirubin levels were indicative of a reduced chance of positive outcomes. Theoretical importance: The findings of this study contribute to the optimization of treatment strategies for children with biliary atresia undergoing the Kasai procedure. By identifying early predictive signs of success, clinicians can modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Data collection and analysis procedures: Data for this analysis were obtained from the health records of patients who received the Kasai procedure. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were employed to analyze the data and identify significant predictors. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of identifying predictive factors for the success of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Conclusion: The developed prognostic models serve as valuable tools for early detection of patients who are less likely to benefit from the Kasai procedure. This enables clinicians to modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Potential limitations of the study: The study has several limitations. Its retrospective nature may introduce biases and inconsistencies in data collection. Being single centered, the results might not be generalizable to wider populations due to variations in surgical and postoperative practices. Also, other potential influencing factors beyond the clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic parameters considered in this study were not explored, which could affect the outcomes of the Kasai operation. Future studies could benefit from including a broader range of factors.

Keywords: biliary atresia, kasai operation, prognostic model, native liver survival

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49 About the State of Students’ Career Guidance in the Conditions of Inclusive Education in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Authors: Laura Butabayeva, Svetlana Ismagulova, Gulbarshin Nogaibayeva, Maiya Temirbayeva, Aidana Zhussip

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Over the years of independence, Kazakhstan has not only ratified international documents regulating the rights of children to Inclusive education, but also developed its own inclusive educational policy. Along with this, the state pays particular attention to high school students' preparedness for professional self-determination. However, a number of problematic issues in this field have been revealed, such as the lack of systemic mechanisms coordinating stakeholders’ actions in preparing schoolchildren for a conscious choice of in-demand profession, meeting their individual capabilities and special educational needs (SEN). The analysis of the state’s current situation indicates school graduates’ adaptation to the labor market does not meet existing demands of the society. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan, about 70 % of Kazakhstani school graduates find themselves difficult to choose a profession, 87 % of schoolchildren make their career choice under the influence of parents and school teachers, 90 % of schoolchildren and their parents have no idea about the most popular professions on the market. The results of the study conducted by KorlanSyzdykova in 2016 indicated the urgent need of Kazakhstani school graduates in obtaining extensive information about in- demand professions and receiving professional assistance in choosing a profession in accordance with their individual skills, abilities, and preferences. The results of the survey, conducted by Information and Analytical Center among heads of colleges in 2020, showed that despite significant steps in creating conditions for students with SEN, they face challenges in studying because of poor career guidance provided to them in schools. The results of the study, conducted by the Center for Inclusive Education of the National Academy of Education named after Y. Altynsarin in the state’s general education schools in 2021, demonstrated the lack of career guidance, pedagogical and psychological support for children with SEN. To investigate these issues, the further study was conducted to examine the state of students’ career guidance and socialization, taking into account their SEN. The hypothesis of this study proposed that to prepare school graduates for a conscious career choice, school teachers and specialists need to develop their competencies in early identification of students' interests, inclinations, SEN and ensure necessary support for them. The state’s 5 regions were involved in the study according to the geographical location. The triangulation approach was utilized to ensure the credibility and validity of research findings, including both theoretical (analysis of existing statistical data, legal documents, results of previous research) and empirical (school survey for students, interviews with parents, teachers, representatives of school administration) methods. The data were analyzed independently and compared to each other. The survey included questions related to provision of pedagogical support for school students in making their career choice. Ethical principles were observed in the process of developing the methodology, collecting, analyzing the data and distributing the results. Based on the results, methodological recommendations on students’ career guidance for school teachers and specialists were developed, taking into account the former’s individual capabilities and SEN.

Keywords: career guidance, children with special educational needs, inclusive education, Kazakhstan

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48 Investigating Links in Achievement and Deprivation (ILiAD): A Case Study Approach to Community Differences

Authors: Ruth Leitch, Joanne Hughes

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This paper presents the findings of a three-year government-funded study (ILiAD) that aimed to understand the reasons for differential educational achievement within and between socially and economically deprived areas in Northern Ireland. Previous international studies have concluded that there is a positive correlation between deprivation and underachievement. Our preliminary secondary data analysis suggested that the factors involved in educational achievement within multiple deprived areas may be more complex than this, with some areas of high multiple deprivation having high levels of student attainment, whereas other less deprived areas demonstrated much lower levels of student attainment, as measured by outcomes on high stakes national tests. The study proposed that no single explanation or disparate set of explanations could easily account for the linkage between levels of deprivation and patterns of educational achievement. Using a social capital perspective that centralizes the connections within and between individuals and social networks in a community as a valuable resource for educational achievement, the ILiAD study involved a multi-level case study analysis of seven community sites in Northern Ireland, selected on the basis of religious composition (housing areas are largely segregated by religious affiliation), measures of multiple deprivation and differentials in educational achievement. The case study approach involved three (interconnecting) levels of qualitative data collection and analysis - what we have termed Micro (or community/grassroots level) understandings, Meso (or school level) explanations and Macro (or policy/structural) factors. The analysis combines a statistical mapping of factors with qualitative, in-depth data interpretation which, together, allow for deeper understandings of the dynamics and contributory factors within and between the case study sites. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data reveals both cross-cutting factors (e.g. demographic shifts and loss of community, place of the school in the community, parental capacity) and analytic case studies of explanatory factors associated with each of the community sites also permit a comparative element. Issues arising from the qualitative analysis are classified either as drivers or inhibitors of educational achievement within and between communities. Key issues that are emerging as inhibitors/drivers to attainment include: the legacy of the community conflict in Northern Ireland, not least in terms of inter-generational stress, related with substance abuse and mental health issues; differing discourses on notions of ‘community’ and ‘achievement’ within/between community sites; inter-agency and intra-agency levels of collaboration and joined-up working; relationship between the home/school/community triad and; school leadership and school ethos. At this stage, the balance of these factors can be conceptualized in terms of bonding social capital (or lack of it) within families, within schools, within each community, within agencies and also bridging social capital between the home/school/community, between different communities and between key statutory and voluntary organisations. The presentation will outline the study rationale, its methodology, present some cross-cutting findings and use an illustrative case study of the findings from a community site to underscore the importance of attending to community differences when trying to engage in research to understand and improve educational attainment for all.

Keywords: educational achievement, multiple deprivation, community case studies, social capital

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47 Optimization of Geometric Parameters of Microfluidic Channels for Flow-Based Studies

Authors: Parth Gupta, Ujjawal Singh, Shashank Kumar, Mansi Chandra, Arnab Sarkar

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Microfluidic devices have emerged as indispensable tools across various scientific disciplines, offering precise control and manipulation of fluids at the microscale. Their efficacy in flow-based research, spanning engineering, chemistry, and biology, relies heavily on the geometric design of microfluidic channels. This work introduces a novel approach to optimise these channels through Response Surface Methodology (RSM), departing from the conventional practice of addressing one parameter at a time. Traditionally, optimising microfluidic channels involved isolated adjustments to individual parameters, limiting the comprehensive understanding of their combined effects. In contrast, our approach considers the simultaneous impact of multiple parameters, employing RSM to efficiently explore the complex design space. The outcome is an innovative microfluidic channel that consumes an optimal sample volume and minimises flow time, enhancing overall efficiency. The relevance of geometric parameter optimization in microfluidic channels extends significantly in biomedical engineering. The flow characteristics of porous materials within these channels depend on many factors, including fluid viscosity, environmental conditions (such as temperature and humidity), and specific design parameters like sample volume, channel width, channel length, and substrate porosity. This intricate interplay directly influences the performance and efficacy of microfluidic devices, which, if not optimized, can lead to increased costs and errors in disease testing and analysis. In the context of biomedical applications, the proposed approach addresses the critical need for precision in fluid flow. it mitigate manufacturing costs associated with trial-and-error methodologies by optimising multiple geometric parameters concurrently. The resulting microfluidic channels offer enhanced performance and contribute to a streamlined, cost-effective process for testing and analyzing diseases. A key highlight of our methodology is its consideration of the interconnected nature of geometric parameters. For instance, the volume of the sample, when optimized alongside channel width, length, and substrate porosity, creates a synergistic effect that minimizes errors and maximizes efficiency. This holistic optimization approach ensures that microfluidic devices operate at their peak performance, delivering reliable results in disease testing. A key highlight of our methodology is its consideration of the interconnected nature of geometric parameters. For instance, the volume of the sample, when optimized alongside channel width, length, and substrate porosity, creates a synergistic effect that minimizes errors and maximizes efficiency. This holistic optimization approach ensures that microfluidic devices operate at their peak performance, delivering reliable results in disease testing. A key highlight of our methodology is its consideration of the interconnected nature of geometric parameters. For instance, the volume of the sample, when optimized alongside channel width, length, and substrate porosity, creates a synergistic effect that minimizes errors and maximizes efficiency. This holistic optimization approach ensures that microfluidic devices operate at their peak performance, delivering reliable results in disease testing.

Keywords: microfluidic device, minitab, statistical optimization, response surface methodology

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46 Ensemble Methods in Machine Learning: An Algorithmic Approach to Derive Distinctive Behaviors of Criminal Activity Applied to the Poaching Domain

Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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