Search results for: statistical evidence

Authors: Ibtihaj Al-Siyabi

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The crisis of COVID-19 posed enormous challenges to the statistical providers. While official statistics were disrupted by the pandemic and related containment measures, there was a growing and pressing need for real-time data and statistics to inform decisions. This paper gives an account of the way the pandemic impacted the operations of the National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in general in terms of data collection and methods used and the main challenges encountered by them based on international surveys. It highlights the performance of the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf, GCC-STAT, and its responsiveness to the pandemic placing special emphasis on environmental statistics. The paper concludes by confirming the GCC-STAT’s resilience and success in facing the challenges.

Keywords: NSO, COVID-19, statistics, crisis, pandemic

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Authors: Amir Bastani

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The result of the research in the field of human behavioural genetics demonstrates a genetic contribution of behavioural differences in aggression, violence, drug and substance abuse, antisocial personality disorder and other related traits. As the field of human behavioural genetics progresses and achieves credibility, the criminal accused continue to use its types of evidence into the criminal law. One of the most important genetic factors which controls certain neurotransmitters like dopamine and serotonin is the Monoamine Oxidase Acid A (MAOA) gene, known as the 'warrior gene'. The high-profile study by Caspi and colleagues in 2002 showed that the combination between one type of variation of the MAOA gene and childhood maltreatment noticeably predisposes a person to antisocial behaviour. Moreover, further scientific research shows that individuals with the MAOA gene have to some degree difficulties in controlling their impulses. Based on the evidence of MAOA, some criminal accused claimed difficulties in self-control. In the first case – the famous case of Mobley – the court rejected the MAOA evidence on the ground of the lack of scientific support. In contrast, in other cases after the Mobley trial, courts accepted the evidence of MAOA. In this paper, the issue of lack of impulse control produced by the MAOA gene and cases which relied on the MAOA evidence and successfully being accepted will be reviewed in detail. Finally, the anticipation of the paper for the future use of the MAOA evidence in criminal cases will be presented.

Keywords: genetic defence, criminal responsibility, MAOA, self-control

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Authors: Javaid Ahmad Dar, Mohammad Asif

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The present study investigates the long-run impact of financial development, energy consumption and economic growth on greenhouse gas emissions for India, in presence of endogenous structural breaks, over a period of 1971-2013. Autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure and Hatemi-J threshold cointegration technique have been used to test the variables for cointegration. ARDL bounds test did not confirm any cointegrating relationship between the variables. The threshold cointegration test establishes the presence of long-run impact of financial development, energy use and economic growth on greenhouse gas emissions in India. The results reveal that the long-run relationship between the variables has witnessed two regime shifts, in 1978 and 2002. The empirical evidence shows that financial sector development and energy consumption in India degrade environment. Unlike previous studies, this paper finds no statistical evidence of long-run relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration. The study also challenges the existence of environmental Kuznets curve in India.

Keywords: cointegration, financial development, global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, regime shift, unit root

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Authors: Bendes Ákos

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Digital evidence will be the most widely used type of evidence in the future. With the development of the modern world, more and more new types of crimes have evolved and transformed. For this reason, it is extremely important to examine these types of crimes in order to get a comprehensive picture of them, with which we can help the authorities work. In 1865, with early technologies, people were able to forge a picture of a quality that is not even recognized today. With the help of today's technology, authorities receive a lot of false evidence. Officials are not able to process such a large amount of data, nor do they have the necessary technical knowledge to get a real picture of the authenticity of the given evidence. The digital world has many dangers. Unfortunately, we live in an age where we must protect everything digitally: our phones, our computers, our cars, and all the smart devices that are present in our personal lives and this is not only a burden on us, since companies, state and public utilities institutions are also forced to do so. The training of specialists and experts is essential so that the authorities can manage the incoming digital evidence at some level. When analyzing evidence, it is important to be able to examine it from the moment it is created. Establishing authenticity is a very important issue during official procedures. After the proper acquisition of the evidence, it is essential to store it safely and use it professionally. After the proper acquisition of the evidence, it is essential to store it safely and use it professionally. Otherwise, they will not have sufficient probative value and in case of doubt, the court will always decide in favor of the defendant. One of the most common problems in the world of digital data and evidence is doubt, which is why it is extremely important to examine the above-mentioned problems. The most effective way to avoid digital crimes is to prevent them, for which proper education and knowledge are essential. The aim is to present the dangers inherent in the digital world and the new types of digital crimes. After the comparison of the Hungarian investigative techniques with international practice, modernizing proposals will be given. A sufficiently stable yet flexible legislation is needed that can monitor the rapid changes in the world and not regulate afterward but rather provide an appropriate framework. It is also important to be able to distinguish between digital and digitalized evidence, as the degree of probative force differs greatly. The aim of the research is to promote effective international cooperation and uniform legal regulation in the world of digital crimes.

Keywords: digital crime, digital law, cyber crime, international cooperation, new crimes, skepticism

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Authors: B. Bergström, A. Ladd, A. Jones, L. Rosso, P. Michael

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Attitudes toward treatment manuals serve as a meaningful predictor of general attitudes toward evidence-based practice. Despite demonstrating high effectiveness in treating many mental disorders, manualized treatments have been underutilized by practitioners. Thus, one can assess the state of the field regarding the adoption of evidence-based practices by surveying practitioner attitudes towards manualized treatments. This study is an adapted replication that assesses psychology graduate student attitudes towards manualized treatments, as a general marker for attitudes towards evidence-based practice. Training programs provide future clinicians with the foundation for critical skills in clinical practice. Research demonstrates that post-graduate continuing education has little to no effect on clinical practice; thus, graduate programs serve as the primary, and often final platform for all future practice. However, there are little empirical data identifying the attitudes and training of graduate students in utilizing manualized treatments. The empirical analysis of this study indicates an increase in positive attitudes among graduate student attitudes towards manualized treatments (within the United States), when compared to past surveys of professional psychologists. Findings from this study may inform graduate programs of barriers for students in developing positive attitudes toward manualized treatments and evidence-based practice. This study also serves as a preliminary predictor of the state-of-the field, in regards to professional psychologists attitudes towards evidence-based practice, if attitudes remain stable. This study indicates that the attitudes toward utilizing evidence-based practices, such as treatment manuals, has become more positive since year 2000.

Keywords: exposure therapy, evidence based practice, manualized treatments, student attitudes

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Authors: Okolie Chukwulozie Paul, Iwenofu Chinwe Onyedika, Sinebe Jude Ebieladoh, M. C. Nwosu

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The research work is based on the statistical analysis of the processing data. The essence is to analyze the data statistically and to generate a design model for the production mix of soap manufacturing products in Bejoy manufacturing company Nkpologwu, Aguata Local Government Area, Anambra state, Nigeria. The statistical analysis shows the statistical analysis and the correlation of the data. T test, Partial correlation and bi-variate correlation were used to understand what the data portrays. The design model developed was used to model the data production yield and the correlation of the variables show that the R2 is 98.7%. However, the results confirm that the data is fit for further analysis and modeling. This was proved by the correlation and the R-squared.

Keywords: General Linear Model, correlation, variables, pearson, significance, T-test, soap, production mix and statistic

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Authors: Da-Ming Huang, Ya-Ting Tsai, Shyh-Hau Wang

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Ultrasound signals backscattered from the soft tissues are mainly depending on the size, density, distribution, and other elastic properties of scatterers in the interrogated sample volume. The quantitative analysis of ultrasonic backscattering is frequently implemented using the statistical approach due to that of backscattering signals tends to be with the nature of the random variable. Thus, the statistical analysis, such as Nakagami statistics, has been applied to characterize the density and distribution of scatterers of a sample. Yet, the accuracy of statistical analysis could be readily affected by the receiving signals associated with the nature of incident ultrasound wave and acoustical properties of samples. Thus, in the present study, efforts were made to explore such effects as the ultrasound operational modes and attenuation of biological tissue on the estimation of corresponding Nakagami statistical parameter (m parameter). In vitro measurements were performed from healthy and pathological fibrosis porcine livers using different single-element ultrasound transducers and duty cycles of incident tone burst ranging respectively from 3.5 to 7.5 MHz and 10 to 50%. Results demonstrated that the estimated m parameter tends to be sensitively affected by the use of ultrasound operational modes as well as the tissue attenuation. The healthy and pathological tissues may be characterized quantitatively by m parameter under fixed measurement conditions and proper calibration.

Keywords: ultrasound backscattering, statistical analysis, operational mode, attenuation

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Authors: L. Edirisinghe, P. Mukherjee, H. Edirisinghe

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Virtual Container Yard (VCY) is a modern concept that helps to reduce the empty container repositioning cost of carriers. The concept of VCY is based on container interchange between shipping lines. Although this mechanism has been theoretically accepted by the shipping community as a feasible solution, it has not yet achieved the necessary momentum among container shipping lines (CSL). This paper investigates whether there is any legal influence on this industry myopia about the VCY. It is believed that this is the first publication that focuses on the legal aspects of container exchange between carriers. Not much literature on this subject is available. This study establishes with statistical evidence that there is a phobia prevailing in the shipping industry that exchanging containers with other carriers may lead to various legal implications. The complexity of exchange is two faceted. CSLs assume that offering a container to another carrier (obviously, a competitor in terms of commercial context) or using a container offered by another carrier may lead to undue legal implications. This research reveals that this fear is reflected through four types of perceived components, namely: shipping associate; warehouse associate; network associate; and trading associate. These components carry eighteen subcomponents that comprehensively cover the entire process of a container shipment. The statistical explanation has been supported through regression analysis; INCO terms were used to illustrate the shipping process.

Keywords: virtual container yard, legal, maritime law, inventory

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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The rapid growth of data in diverse domains has created an urgent need for effective utilization of mathematical and statistical sciences in data analytics. This abstract explores the journey from theory to practice, emphasizing the importance of harnessing mathematical and statistical innovations to unlock the full potential of data analytics. Drawing on a comprehensive review of existing literature and research, this study investigates the fundamental theories and principles underpinning mathematical and statistical sciences in the context of data analytics. It delves into key mathematical concepts such as optimization, probability theory, statistical modeling, and machine learning algorithms, highlighting their significance in analyzing and extracting insights from complex datasets. Moreover, this abstract sheds light on the practical applications of mathematical and statistical sciences in real-world data analytics scenarios. Through case studies and examples, it showcases how mathematical and statistical innovations are being applied to tackle challenges in various fields such as finance, healthcare, marketing, and social sciences. These applications demonstrate the transformative power of mathematical and statistical sciences in data-driven decision-making. The abstract also emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, as it recognizes the synergy between mathematical and statistical sciences and other domains such as computer science, information technology, and domain-specific knowledge. Collaborative efforts enable the development of innovative methodologies and tools that bridge the gap between theory and practice, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of data analytics. Furthermore, ethical considerations surrounding data analytics, including privacy, bias, and fairness, are addressed within the abstract. It underscores the need for responsible and transparent practices in data analytics, and highlights the role of mathematical and statistical sciences in ensuring ethical data handling and analysis. In conclusion, this abstract highlights the journey from theory to practice in harnessing mathematical and statistical sciences in data analytics. It showcases the practical applications of these sciences, the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, and the need for ethical considerations. By bridging the gap between theory and practice, mathematical and statistical sciences contribute to unlocking the full potential of data analytics, empowering organizations and decision-makers with valuable insights for informed decision-making.

Keywords: data analytics, mathematical sciences, optimization, machine learning, interdisciplinary collaboration, practical applications

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Authors: Andre Luiz Campelo dos Santos, Amanda Owings, Henry Socrates Lavalle Sullasi, Omer Gokcumen, Michael DeGiorgio, John Lindo

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An increasing body of archaeological and genomic evidence have indicated a complex settlement process of the Americas. Here, four newly sequenced ancient genomes from Northeast Brazil and Uruguay are reported to share strong relationships with previously published samples from Panama and Southeast Brazil. Moreover, an unexpected high genomic affinity with present-day Onge is found in ancient individuals unearthed along the northern portion of South America’s Atlantic coast. These results provide genomic evidence for ancient migrations along South America’s Atlantic coast.

Keywords: archaeogenomics, atlantic coast, paleomigrations, South America

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Authors: Daria Beziakina, Elena Bulgakova

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The paper deals with cross-gender and cross-linguistic comparison of pitch characteristics for Tuvinian with two other Turkic languages - Uzbek and Azerbaijani, based on the results of statistical analysis of pitch parameter values and intonation patterns used by male and female speakers. The main goal of our work is to obtain the ranges of pitch parameter values typical for Tuvinian speakers for the purpose of automatic language identification. We also propose a cross-gender analysis of declarative intonation in the poorly studied Tuvinian language. The ranges of pitch parameter values were obtained by means of specially developed software that deals with the distribution of pitch values and allows us to obtain statistical language-specific pitch intervals.

Keywords: speech analysis, statistical analysis, speaker recognition, identification of person

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Authors: Aadita Chaudhury

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Since at least the early 2000s, DNA profiling has achieved a preeminent status in forensic investigations into criminal acts. While the criminal justice system has a long history of using forensic evidence and testing them through establish technoscientific means, the primacy of DNA in establishing 'truth' or reconstructing a series of events is unparalleled in the history of forensic science. This paper seeks to elucidate the ways in which DNA profiling has become the most authoritative instrument of 'truth' in criminal investigations, and how it is used in the legal process to ascertain culpability, create the notion of infallible evidence, and advance the search for justice. It is argued that DNA profiling has created a paradigm shift in how the legal system and the general public understands crime and culpability, but not without limitations. There are indications that even trace amounts of DNA evidence can point to causal links in a criminal investigation, however, there still remains many rooms to create confusion and doubt from empirical evidence within the narrative of crimes. Many of the shortcomings of DNA-based forensic investigations are explored and evaluated with regards to claims of the authority of biological evidence and implications for the public understanding of the elusive concepts of truth and justice in the present era. Public misinformation about the forensic analysis processes could produce doubt or faith in the judgements rooted in them, depending on other variables presented at the trial. A positivist understanding of forensic science that is shared by the majority of the population does not take into consideration that DNA evidence is far from definitive, and can be used to support any theories of culpability, to create doubt and to deflect blame.

Keywords: DNA profiling, epistemology of forensic science, philosophy of forensic science, sociology of scientific knowledge

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Authors: Gabriela Wasileski, Debra L. Stanley

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Maryland efforts to decrease the juvenile criminality and recidivism shifts towards evidence based sentencing. While in theory the evidence based sentencing has an impact on the reduction of juvenile delinquency and drug abuse; the assessment of juveniles’ risk and needs usually lacks crucial information about juvenile’s prior victimization. The Maryland Comprehensive Assessment and Service Planning (MCASP) Initiative is the primary tool for developing and delivering a treatment service plan for juveniles at risk. Even though it consists of evidence-based screening and assessment instruments very little is currently known regarding the effectiveness and the impact of the assessment in general. In keeping with Maryland’s priority to develop successful evidence-based recidivism reduction programs, this study examined results of assessments based on MCASP using a representative sample of the juveniles at risk and their assessment results. Specifically, it examined: (1) the results of the assessments in an electronic database (2) areas of need that are more frequent among delinquent youth in a system/agency, (3) the overall progress of youth in an agency’s care (4) the impact of child victimization and trauma experiences reported in the assessment. The project will identify challenges regarding the use of MCASP in Maryland, and will provide a knowledge base to support future research and practices.

Keywords: Juvenile Justice, assessment of risk and need, victimization and crime, recidivism

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Authors: Dongjoo Kim, Chang-Sik Son, Won-Seok Kang

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Adequate sleep affects various parts of one’s overall physical and mental life. As one of the methods in determining the appropriate amount of sleep, this research presents a heart rate based sleep quality index. In order to evaluate sleep quality using the heart rate, sleep data from 280 subjects taken over one month are used. Their sleep data are categorized by a three-part heart rate range. After categorizing, some features are extracted, and the statistical significances are verified for these features. The results show that some features of this sleep quality index model have statistical significance. Thus, this heart rate based sleep quality index may be a useful discriminator of sleep.

Keywords: sleep, sleep quality, heart rate, statistical analysis

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Authors: Inyeol Paik, Ah-Ryang Kim

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In this research, a statistical analysis is carried out to examine the statistical properties of the formula given in the design code for concrete structures. The design formulas of the Korea highway bridge design code - the limit state design method (KHBDC) which is the current national bridge design code and the design code for concrete structures by Korea Concrete Institute (KCI) are applied for the analysis. The safety levels provided by the strength formulas of the design codes are defined based on the probabilistic and statistical theory.KHBDC is a reliability-based design code. The load and resistance factors of this code were calibrated to attain the target reliability index. It is essential to define the statistical properties for the design formulas in this calibration process. In general, the statistical characteristics of a member strength are due to the following three factors. The first is due to the difference between the material strength of the actual construction and that used in the design calculation. The second is the difference between the actual dimensions of the constructed sections and those used in design calculation. The third is the difference between the strength of the actual member and the formula simplified for the design calculation. In this paper, the statistical study is focused on the third difference. The formulas for calculating the shear strength of concrete members are presented in different ways in KHBDC and KCI. In this study, the statistical properties of design formulas were obtained through comparison with the database which comprises the experimental results from the reference publications. The test specimen was either reinforced with the shear stirrup or not. For an applied database, the bias factor was about 1.12 and the coefficient of variation was about 0.18. By applying the statistical properties of the design formula to the reliability analysis, it is shown that the resistance factors of the current design codes satisfy the target reliability indexes of both codes. Also, the minimum resistance factors of the KHBDC which is written in the material resistance factor format and KCE which is in the member resistance format are obtained and the results are presented. A further research is underway to calibrate the resistance factors of the high strength and high-performance concrete design guide.

Keywords: concrete design code, reliability analysis, resistance factor, shear strength, statistical property

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Authors: Hanna Teklu Gebregziabher

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Background: A variety of techniques for medical termination of second-trimester pregnancy can be used, but there is no consensus about which is the best. Even though most evidence suggests the combined use of intracervical Foley catheter and vaginal misoprostol is safe, effective, and acceptable method for termination of second-trimester pregnancy, which is comparable to mifepristone-misoprostol combination regimen with lower cost and no additional maternal risks. The use of mifepristone and misoprostol alone with no other procedure is still the most common procedure in different institutions for 2nd-trimester pregnancy. Methods: A cross-sectional comparative prospective study design is employed on women who were admitted for 2nd-trimester medical abortion and medical abortion failed or if there was no change in cervical status after 24 hours of 1st dose of misoprostol. The study was conducted at St. Paulose Hospital Millennium Medical College. A sample of 44 participants in each arm was necessary to give a two-tailed test, a type 1 error of 5%, 80% statistical power, and a 1:1 ratio among groups. Thus, a total of 94 cases, 47 from each arm, were recruited. Data was entered and cleaned by using Epi-info and analyzed using SPSS version 29.0 statistical software and was presented in descriptive and tabular forms. Different variables were cross-tabulated and compared for significant differences and statistical analysis using the chi-square test and independent t-test, to conclude. Result: There was a significant difference between the two groups on induction to expulsion time and number of doses used. The mean ± SD of induction to expulsion time for those used misoprostol alone was 48.09 ± 11.86 and those who used trans-cervical catheter sequentially with misoprostol were 36.7 ±6.772. Conclusion: The use of a trans-cervical Foley catheter in conjunction with misoprostol in a sequential manner is a more effective, safe, and easily accessible procedure. In addition, the cost of utilizing the catheter is less compared to the cost of misoprostol and is readily available. As a good substitute, we advised using Trans-cervical Catether even for medical abortions performed in the second trimester.

Keywords: second trimester, medical abortion, catheter, misoprostol

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Authors: Yunus Emre Kara, Atilla Kuzu, Levent Cirpici

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Recently, in the interior design of hospitals, the effect of the physical environment on the healing process has been frequently emphasized, and the importance of psychological and behavioral factors has increased day by day. When designing new hospital interiors, it became important to create spaces that not only meet medical requirements but also support the healing process of patients with interior design. In this study, the patient rooms, corridor, atrium area, waiting area, and entrance counter in a hospital were handled with patient-centered design, evidence-based design, and remedial architectural approaches, and it was seen that the healing and reassuring elements in hospitals were extremely important.

Keywords: evidence based design, healing architecture, hospital, organic design, parametric design

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Authors: Saule Mussabekova

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Recent advances in genetics have allowed increasing acutely the capacities of the formation of reliable evidence in conducting forensic examinations. Thus, traces of biological origin are important sources of information about a crime. Currently, around the world, sexual offenses have increased, and among them are those in which the criminals use various detergents to remove traces of their crime. A feature of modern synthetic detergents is the presence of biological additives - enzymes. Enzymes purposefully destroy stains of biological origin. To study the nature and extent of the impact of modern washing powders on saliva stains on the physical evidence, specially prepared test specimens of different types of tissues to which saliva was applied have been examined. Materials and Methods: Washing machines of famous manufacturers of household appliances have been used with different production characteristics and advertised brands of washing powder for test washing. Over 3,500 experimental samples were tested. After washing, the traces of saliva were identified using modern research methods of forensic medicine. Results: The influence was tested and the dependence of the use of different washing programs, types of washing machines and washing powders in the process of establishing saliva trace and identify of the stains on the physical evidence while washing was revealed. The results of experimental and practical expert studies have shown that in most cases it is not possible to draw the conclusions in the identification of saliva traces on physical evidence after washing. This is a consequence of the effect of biological additives and other additional factors on traces of saliva during washing. Conclusions: On the basis of the results of the study, the feasibility of saliva traces of the stains on physical evidence after washing is established. The use of modern molecular genetic methods makes it possible to partially solve the problems arising in the study of unlaundered evidence. Additional study of physical evidence after washing facilitates detection and investigation of sexual offenses against women and children.

Keywords: saliva research, modern synthetic detergents, laundry detergents, forensic medicine

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Authors: Yan-Chi Chen

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This study aims to investigate the 1st personal pronouns as evasive devices used by presidential candidates in the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Debate within the framework of critical discourse analysis (CDA). This study finds that the personal pronoun ‘I’ is the highest frequent personal pronoun in the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Debate. Generally speaking, the first personal pronouns were used most in the presidential debate, compared with the second and the third personal pronouns. Hence, a further quantitative analysis is conducted to explore the correlation between the frequencies of the two 1st personal pronouns and the other pronouns. Results show that the number of the personal pronoun ‘I’ increases from 26 to 49, with the personal pronoun ‘we’ decreases from 43 to 15 during the debate. Though it seems the personal pronoun ‘I’ has a higher tendency in pronominal choice, statistical evidence demonstrated that the personal pronoun ‘we’ has the greater statistical significance (p<0.0002), compared with that of ‘I’ (p<0.0116). The comparatively small p-value of the personal pronoun ‘we’ means it ‘has a stronger correlation with the overall pronominal choice, and the personal pronoun ‘we’ is more likely to be used than the personal pronoun ‘I’. Therefore, this study concludes that the pronominal choice varies with different evasive strategies. The ingrained functions of these personal pronouns are mainly categorized as ‘agreement’ and ‘justification’. The personal pronoun ’we’ is preferred in the agreement evasive strategies, and ‘I’ is used for justifying oneself. In addition, the personal pronoun ‘we’ can be defined as both ‘inclusive’ and ‘exclusive’ personal pronoun, which rendered ‘we’ more functions not limited to agreement evasive strategies. In conclusion, although the personal pronoun ‘I’ has the highest occurrences, the personal pronoun ‘we’ is more related to the first pronoun choices.

Keywords: critical discourse analysis (CDA), evasive devices, the 1st personal pronouns, the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Debate

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Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

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This paper introduces a family of fourth-order hybrid beta polynomial kernels developed for statistical analysis. The assessment of these kernels' performance centers on two critical metrics: asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and kernel efficiency. Through the utilization of both simulated and real-world datasets, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted, facilitating a thorough comparison with conventional fourth-order polynomial kernels. The evaluation procedure encompassed the computation of AMISE and efficiency values for both the proposed hybrid kernels and the established classical kernels. The consistently observed trend was the superior performance of the hybrid kernels when compared to their classical counterparts. This trend persisted across diverse datasets, underscoring the resilience and efficacy of the hybrid approach. By leveraging these performance metrics and conducting evaluations on both simulated and real-world data, this study furnishes compelling evidence in favour of the superiority of the proposed hybrid beta polynomial kernels. The discernible enhancement in performance, as indicated by lower AMISE values and higher efficiency scores, strongly suggests that the proposed kernels offer heightened suitability for statistical analysis tasks when compared to traditional kernels.

Keywords: AMISE, efficiency, fourth-order Kernels, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation

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Authors: Mubina Rauf

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Critical thinking is a highly valued outcome of university education. There is an agreement in literature that it is demonstrated through the abilities to highlight issues and assumptions, find links between ideas and concepts, make correct inferences, evaluate evidence or authority and deduce conclusions (Tsui, 2002). Although Critical thinking plays a significant role in developing all academic skills, its role in developing writing skills is significant (Kurfiss, 1988). SAW (student academic writing) is an observable output of critical thinking (Wilson K. , 2016). When students apply critical thinking to their writing, they present clear, accurate, significant and logical arguments constructing their own voice in the form of an essay or dissertation (Matsuda, 2001). This presentation will show how a rubric can be used to find evidence of critical thinking in SAW. Participants will experience how evidence-based written arguments supported by background knowledge and authorial voice can develop students into efficient critical thinkers. Participants will have an opportunity to use the rubric to find the evidence of critical thinking in SAW samples. This presentation is intended for classroom teachers with or without the basic knowledge of implementing critical thinking in academic settings. Participants will also learn tips how various features of critical thinking can be developed among students. After the session, the participants will be able to use or adapt the rubric according to their needs to find evidence of critical thinking in SAW within their context.

Keywords: critical thinking, Rubric, student academic writing, argumentation, text analysis

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Authors: Peyman Rezaei Hachesu, Vahideh Zareh Gavgani, Zahra Salahzadeh

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To survey the attitudes, awareness, and practice of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM), and to determine the barriers that influence apply’ EBM in therapeutic process among clinical residents in Iran.We conducted a cross sectional survey during September to December 2012 at the teaching hospitals of Tehran University of Medical Sciences among 79 clinical residents from different medical specialties. A valid and reliable questionnaire consisted of five sections and 27 statements were used in this research. We applied Spearman and Mann Whitney test for correlation between variables. Findings showed that the knowledge of residents about EBM is low. Their attitude towards EBM was positive but their knowledge and skills in regard with the evidence based medical information resources were mostly limited to PubMed and Google scholar. The main barrier was the lack of enough time to practicing EBM. There was no significant correlation between residency grade and familiarity and use of electronic EBM resources (Spearman, P = 0.138). Integration of training approaches like journal clubs or workshops with clinical practice is suggested.

Keywords: evidence-based medicine, clinical residents, decision-making, attitude, questionnaire

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Authors: M. O. Ezegbogu, H. B. Osadolor

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Lipsticks constitute a significant source of transfer evidence, and can, therefore, provide corroborative or inclusionary evidence in criminal investigation. This study aimed to determine the uniqueness and persistence of different lipstick smears using Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC), and Gas Chromatography with a Flame Ionisation Detector (GC-FID). In this study, we analysed lipstick smears retrieved from tea cups exposed to the environment for up to four weeks. The n-alkane content of each sample was determined using GC-FID, while TLC was used to determine the number of bands, and retention factor of each band per smear. This study shows that TLC gives more consistent results over a 4-week period than GC-FID. It also proposes a maximum exposure time of two weeks for the analysis of lipsticks left in the open using GC-FID. Finally, we conclude that neither TLC nor GC-FID can distinguish lipstick evidence recovered from hypothetical crime scenes.

Keywords: forensic science, chromatography, identification, lipstick

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Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida

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Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.

Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models

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Authors: Shishen Xie, Yingda L. Xie

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially serious infectious disease that remains a health concern. The Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is a blood test to find out if an individual is tuberculous positive or negative. This study applies statistical analysis to the clinical data of interferon-gamma levels of seventy-three subjects who diagnosed pulmonary TB in an anti-tuberculous treatment. Data analysis is performed to determine if there is a significant decline in interferon-gamma levels for the subjects during a period of six months, and to infer if the anti-tuberculous treatment is effective.

Keywords: data analysis, interferon gamma release assay, statistical methods, tuberculosis infection

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Authors: Mohammed Shaath

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Aims Technological advancements in teaching and learning have made significant improvements over the past decade and have been incorporated in institutions to aid the learner’s experience. This review aims to assess whether Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) pedagogy is more effective at improving students’ attitude and knowledge retention in orthodontic training than traditional methods. Methodology The searches comprised Systematic Reviews (SRs) related to the comparison of TEL and traditional teaching methods from the following databases: PubMed, SCOPUS, Medline, and Embase. One researcher performed the screening, data extraction, and analysis and assessed the risk of bias and quality using A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR-2). Kirkpatrick’s 4-level evaluation model was used to evaluate the educational values. Results A sum of 34 SRs was identified after the removal of duplications and irrelevant SRs; 4 fit the inclusion criteria. On Level 1, students showed positivity to TEL methods, although acknowledging that the harder the platforms to use, the less favourable. Nonetheless, the students still showed high levels of acceptability. Level 2 showed there is no significant overall advantage of increased knowledge when it comes to TEL methods. One SR showed that certain aspects of study within orthodontics deliver a statistical improvement with TEL. Level 3 was the least reported on. Results showed that if left without time restrictions, TEL methods may be advantageous. Level 4 shows that both methods are equally as effective, but TEL has the potential to overtake traditional methods in the future as a form of active, student-centered approach. Conclusion TEL has a high level of acceptability and potential to improve learning in orthodontics. Current reviews have potential to be improved, but the biggest aspect that needs to be addressed is the primary study, which shows a lower level of evidence and heterogeneity in their results. As it stands, the replacement of traditional methods with TEL cannot be fully supported in an evidence-based manner. The potential of TEL methods has been recognized and is already starting to show some evidence of the ability to be more effective in some aspects of learning to cater for a more technology savvy generation.

Keywords: TEL, orthodontic, teaching, traditional

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Authors: Yadav Shyamjeet Maniram

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Despite reports of more than seventy million population of India affected by rare diseases, it rarely figured on the agenda of the Indian scientist and policymakers. Hitherto ignored, a fresh initiative is being attempted to establish the first national registry for rare diseases. Though there are registries for rare diseases, established by the clinicians and patient advocacy groups, they are isolated, scattered and lacks information sharing mechanism. It is the first time that there is an effort from the government of India to make an initiative on the rare disease registries, which would be more formal and systemic in nature. Since there is lack of epidemiological evidence for the rare disease in India, it is interesting to note how rare disease policy is being attempted in the vacuum of evidence required for the policy process. The objective of this study is to analyse rare disease registry creation and implementation from the parameters of evolutionary policy perspective in the absence of evidence for the policy process. This study will be exploratory and qualitative in nature, primarily based on the interviews of stakeholders involved in the rare disease registry creation and implementation. Some secondary data will include various documents related to rare disease registry. The expected outcome of this study would be on the role of stakeholders in the generation of evidence for the rare disease registry creation and implementation. This study will also try to capture negotiations and deliberations on the ethical issues in terms of data collection, preservation, and protection.

Keywords: evolutionary policy perspective, evidence for policy, rare disease policy, rare disease in India

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Authors: Naouel Zoghlami

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Spoken-word recognition involves the simultaneous activation of potential word candidates which compete with each other for final correct recognition. In continuous speech, the activation-competition process gets more complicated due to speech reductions existing at word boundaries. Lexical processing is more difficult in L2 than in L1 because L2 listeners often lack phonetic, lexico-semantic, syntactic, and prosodic knowledge in the target language. In this study, we investigate the on-line lexical segmentation hypotheses that French listeners of L2 English form and then revise as subsequent perceptual evidence is revealed. Our purpose is to shed further light on the processes of L2 spoken-word recognition in context and better understand L2 listening difficulties through a comparison of skilled and unskilled reactions at the point where their working hypothesis is rejected. We use a variant of the gating experiment in which subjects transcribe an English sentence presented in increments of progressively greater duration. The spoken sentence was “And this amazing athlete has just broken another world record”, chosen mainly because it included common reductions and phonetic features in English, such as elision and assimilation. Our preliminary results show that there is an important difference in the manner in which proficient and less-proficient L2 listeners handle connected speech. Less-proficient listeners delay recognition of words as they wait for lexical and syntactic evidence to appear in the gates. Further statistical results are currently being undertaken.

Keywords: gating paradigm, spoken word recognition, online lexical segmentation, L2 listening

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Ana Paula Soares, Alexandrina Lages, Helena Oliveira, Francisco-Javier Gutiérrez-Domínguez, Marisa Lousada

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From an early age, exposure to a spoken language allows us to implicitly capture the structure underlying the succession of the speech sounds in that language and to segment it into meaningful units (words). Statistical learning (SL), i.e., the ability to pick up patterns in the sensory environment even without intention or consciousness of doing it, is thus assumed to play a central role in the acquisition of the rule-governed aspects of language and possibly to lie behind the language difficulties exhibited by children with development language disorder (DLD). The research conducted so far has, however, led to inconsistent results, which might stem from the behavioral tasks used to test SL. In a classic SL experiment, participants are first exposed to a continuous stream (e.g., syllables) in which, unbeknownst to the participants, stimuli are grouped into triplets that always appear together in the stream (e.g., ‘tokibu’, ‘tipolu’), with no pauses between each other (e.g., ‘tokibutipolugopilatokibu’) and without any information regarding the task or the stimuli. Following exposure, SL is assessed by asking participants to discriminate between triplets previously presented (‘tokibu’) from new sequences never presented together during exposure (‘kipopi’), i.e., to perform a two-alternative-forced-choice (2-AFC) task. Despite the widespread use of the 2-AFC to test SL, it has come under increasing criticism as it is an offline post-learning task that only assesses the result of the learning that had occurred during the previous exposure phase and that might be affected by other factors beyond the computation of regularities embedded in the input, typically the likelihood two syllables occurring together, a statistic known as transitional probability (TP). One solution to overcome these limitations is to assess SL as exposure to the stream unfolds using online techniques such as event-related potentials (ERP) that is highly sensitive to the time-course of the learning in the brain. Here we collected ERPs to examine the neurofunctional correlates of SL in preschool children with DLD, and chronological-age typical language development (TLD) controls who were exposed to an auditory stream in which eight three-syllable nonsense words, four of which presenting high-TPs and the other four low-TPs, to further analyze whether the ability of DLD and TLD children to extract-word-like units from the steam was modulated by words’ predictability. Moreover, to ascertain if the previous knowledge of the to-be-learned-regularities affected the neural responses to high- and low-TP words, children performed the auditory SL task, firstly, under implicit, and, subsequently, under explicit conditions. Although behavioral evidence of SL was not obtained in either group, the neural responses elicited during the exposure phases of the SL tasks differentiated children with DLD from children with TLD. Specifically, the results indicated that only children from the TDL group showed neural evidence of SL, particularly in the SL task performed under explicit conditions, firstly, for the low-TP, and, subsequently, for the high-TP ‘words’. Taken together, these findings support the view that children with DLD showed deficits in the extraction of the regularities embedded in the auditory input which might underlie the language difficulties.

Keywords: development language disorder, statistical learning, transitional probabilities, word segmentation

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