Search results for: software cumulative failure prediction

Authors: Konja Knüppel, Gerrit Meyer, Peter Nyhuis

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The increasing interconnectedness and complexity of production processes raise the susceptibility of production systems to failure. Therefore, the ability to respond quickly to failures is increasingly becoming a competitive factor. The research project "Sustainable failure management in manufacturing SMEs" is developing a methodology to identify failures in the production and select preventive and reactive measures in order to correct failures and to establish sustainable failure management systems.

Keywords: failure categorization, failure management, logistic performance, production optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

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Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: black box, faults, failure, software reliability

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Authors: Nithi Sermsiriviboon, Somchai Supattarakul

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Dividend initiations are an economically significant event that has important implications for a firm’s future financial capacity. Given that the market’s expectation of a consistent payout, managers of IPO firms must approach the initial dividend decision cautiously. We compare the long run performance of IPO firms that initiated dividends with those of similarly matched non-payers. We found that firms which initiated dividends perform significantly better up to three years after the initiation date. Moreover, we measure investor reactions by 2-day around dividend announcement date cumulative abnormal return. We evidence no statistically significant differences between cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of IPO firms and cumulative abnormal returns of Non-IPO firms, indicating that investors do not respond to dividend announcement of IPO firms more than they do to the dividend announcement of Non-IPO firms.

Keywords: dividend, initial public offerings, long-run performance, finance

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Hadi Hesamsadat

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In this study, a parametric finite element modeling is developed to analyze failure modes of FRP pipes subjected to internal pressure. First-ply failure pressure and functional failure pressure was determined by a progressive damage modeling and then it is validated using experimental observations. The influence of both winding angle and fiber volume fraction is studied on the functional failure of FRP pipes and it corresponding pressure. It is observed that despite the fact that increasing fiber volume fraction will enhance the mechanical properties, it will be resulted in lower values for functional failure pressure. This shortcoming can be compensated by modifying the winding angle in angle plies of pipe wall structure.

Keywords: composite pipe, functional failure, progressive modeling, winding angle

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Authors: Sang-Woo Kim, Young-Seon Lee

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An important concern in metal forming, even at elevated temperatures, is whether a desired deformation can be accomplished without any failure of the material. A detailed understanding of the critical condition for crack initiation provides not only the workability limit of a material but also a guide-line for process design. This paper describes the utilization of ductile fracture criteria in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) for predicting the onset of fracture in warm metal working processes of magnesium alloy sheets. Critical damage values for various ductile fracture criteria were determined from uniaxial tensile tests and were expressed as the function of strain rate and temperature. In order to find the best criterion for failure prediction, Erichsen cupping tests under isothermal conditions and FE simulations combined with ductile fracture criteria were carried out. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from the FE analyses of the Erichsen cupping tests and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted under a bi-axial tensile condition. The results were compared with experimental results and the best criterion was recommended. In addition, the proposed methodology was used to predict the onset of fracture in non-isothermal deep drawing processes using an irregular shaped blank, and the results were verified experimentally.

Keywords: magnesium, AZ31 alloy, ductile fracture, FEM, sheet forming, Erichsen cupping test

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Authors: A. Siva, R. Senthil, R. Banupriya, R. Saravanakumar

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Cold-formed steel sheets are widely used as primary tension reinforcement in composite slabs. It also performs as formwork for concreting and better ceiling surface. The major type of failure occurring in composite slab is shear failure. When the composite slab is flexurally loaded, the longitudinal shear is generated and transferred to the steel sheet concrete interface. When the load increases, the interface slip occurs. The slip failure can be resisted by mechanical interface interlock by shear studs. In this paper, the slip failure has been resisted by shear connectors and geometry of the steel sheet alone. The geometry of the sheet is kept constant for all the specimens and the type of shear connectors has been varied. Totally, three types of shear connectors (viz., straight headed, U and J) are bolted to the trapezoidal profile sheet and the concrete is casted over it. After curing, the composite slab is subjected to flexure load and the test results are compared with the numerical results analysed by ABAQUS software. The test result shows that the U-shaped bolted stud has higher flexure strength than the other two types of shear connectors.

Keywords: cold formed steel sheet, headed studs, mechanical interlock, shear connectors, shear failure, slip failure

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Authors: Rajwanlop Kumpoopong, Sukit Yindeesuk, Pornchai Silarom

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Modeling cracks in concrete is complicated by its strain-softening behavior which requires the use of sophisticated energy criteria of fracture mechanics to assure stable and convergent solutions in the finite-element (FE) analysis particularly for relatively large structures. However, for small-scale structures such as beams and slabs, a simpler approach relies on retaining some shear stiffness in the cracking plane has been adopted in literature to model the strain-softening behavior of concrete under monotonically increased loading. According to the shear retaining approach, each element is assumed to be an isotropic material prior to cracking of concrete. Once an element is cracked, the isotropic element is replaced with an orthotropic element in which the new orthotropic stiffness matrix is formulated with respect to the crack orientation. The shear transfer factor of 0.5 is used in parallel to the crack plane. The shear retaining approach is adopted in this research to model cracks in RC bridge deck with some modifications to take into account the effect of repetitive moving truck wheel loads as they cause fatigue cracking of concrete. First modification is the introduction of fatigue tests of concrete and reinforcing steel and the Palmgren-Miner linear criterion of cumulative damage in the conventional FE analysis. For a certain loading, the number of cycles to failure of each concrete or RC element can be calculated from the fatigue or S-N curves of concrete and reinforcing steel. The elements with the minimum number of cycles to failure are the failed elements. For the elements that do not fail, the damage is accumulated according to Palmgren-Miner linear criterion of cumulative damage. The stiffness of the failed element is modified and the procedure is repeated until the deck slab fails. The total number of load cycles to failure of the deck slab can then be obtained from which the S-N curve of the deck slab can be simulated. Second modification is the modification in shear transfer factor. Moving loading causes continuous rubbing of crack interfaces which greatly reduces shear transfer mechanism. It is therefore conservatively assumed in this study that the analysis is conducted with shear transfer factor of zero for the case of moving loading. A customized FE program has been developed using the MATLAB software to accomodate such modifications. The developed procedure has been validated with the fatigue test of the 1/6.6-scale AASHTO bridge deck under the applications of both fixed-point repetitive loading and moving loading presented in the literature. Results are in good agreement both experimental vs. simulated S-N curves and observed vs. simulated crack patterns. Significant contribution of the developed procedure is a series of S-N relations which can now be simulated at any desired levels of cracking in addition to the experimentally derived S-N relation at the failure of the deck slab. This permits the systematic investigation of crack propagation or deterioration of RC bridge deck which is appeared to be useful information for highway agencies to prolong the life of their bridge decks.

Keywords: bridge deck, cracking, deterioration, fatigue, finite-element, moving truck, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Jay Xiong, Li Lin

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This paper introduces a new software engineering paradigm based on complexity science, called NSE (Nonlinear Software Engineering paradigm). The purpose of establishing NSE is to help software development organizations double their productivity, half their cost, and increase the quality of their products in several orders of magnitude simultaneously. NSE complies with the essential principles of complexity science. NSE brings revolutionary changes to almost all aspects in software engineering. NSE has been fully implemented with its support platform Panorama++.

Keywords: complexity science, software development, software engineering, software maintenance

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Authors: Muhammad Saqlain, Nazar Abbas Saqib, Muazzam A. Khan

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Heart Failure (HF) has become the major health problem in our society. The prevalence of HF has increased as the patient’s ages and it is the major cause of the high mortality rate in adults. A successful identification and progression of HF can be helpful to reduce the individual and social burden from this syndrome. In this study, we use a real data set of cardiac patients to propose a classification model for the identification and progression of HF. The data set has divided into three age groups, namely young, adult, and old and then each age group have further classified into four classes according to patient’s current physical condition. Contemporary Data Mining classification algorithms have been applied to each individual class of every age group to identify the HF. Decision Tree (DT) gives the highest accuracy of 90% and outperform all other algorithms. Our model accurately diagnoses different stages of HF for each age group and it can be very useful for the early prediction of HF.

Keywords: decision tree, heart failure, data mining, classification model

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. This paper will try to introduce another way of calculating reliability by using R statistical software. R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS. The R programming environment is a widely used open source system for statistical analysis and statistical programming. It includes thousands of functions for the implementation of both standard and new statistical methods. R does not limit user only to operation related only to these functions. This program has many benefits over other similar programs: it is free and, as an open source, constantly updated; it has built-in help system; the R language is easy to extend with user-written functions. The significance of the work is calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. Seventy generators were studied. For each one, the number of hours of running time from its first being put into service until fan failure or until the end of the study (whichever came first) was recorded. Dataset consists of two variables: hours and status. Hours show the time of each fan working and status shows the event: 1- failed, 0- censored data. Censored data represent cases when we cannot track the specific case, so it could fail or success. Gaining the result by using R was easy and quick. The program will take into consideration censored data and include this into the results. This is not so easy in hand calculation. For the purpose of the paper results from R program have been compared to hand calculations in two different cases: censored data taken as a failure and censored data taken as a success. In all three cases, results are significantly different. If user decides to use the R for further calculations, it will give more precise results with work on censored data than the hand calculation.

Keywords: censored data, R statistical software, reliability analysis, time to failure

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Authors: Emre Ozaslan, Bulent Acar, Mehmet Ali Guler

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Unidirectional composites are very popular structural materials used in aerospace, marine, energy and automotive industries thanks to their superior material properties. However, the mechanical behavior of composite materials is more complicated than isotropic materials because of their anisotropic nature. Also, a stress concentration availability on the structure, like a hole, makes the problem further complicated. Therefore, enormous number of tests require to understand the mechanical behavior and strength of composites which contain stress concentration. Accurate finite element analysis and analytical models enable to understand mechanical behavior and predict the strength of composites without enormous number of tests which cost serious time and money. In this study, unidirectional Carbon/Epoxy composite specimens with central circular hole were investigated in terms of stress concentration factor and strength prediction. The composite specimens which had different specimen wide (W) to hole diameter (D) ratio were tested to investigate the effect of hole size on the stress concentration and strength. Also, specimens which had same specimen wide to hole diameter ratio, but varied sizes were tested to investigate the size effect. Finite element analysis was performed to determine stress concentration factor for all specimen configurations. For quasi-isotropic laminate, it was found that the stress concentration factor increased approximately %15 with decreasing of W/D ratio from 6 to 3. Point stress criteria (PSC), inherent flaw method and progressive failure analysis were compared in terms of predicting the strength of specimens. All methods could predict the strength of specimens with maximum %8 error. PSC was better than other methods for high values of W/D ratio, however, inherent flaw method was successful for low values of W/D. Also, it is seen that increasing by 4 times of the W/D ratio rises the failure strength of composite specimen as %62.4. For constant W/D ratio specimens, all the strength prediction methods were more successful for smaller size specimens than larger ones. Increasing the specimen width and hole diameter together by 2 times reduces the specimen failure strength as %13.2.

Keywords: failure, strength, stress concentration, unidirectional composites

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Authors: Muhammad Irfan Marwat, Sadaqat Jan, Syed Zafar Ali Shah

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Software architecture plays a key role in software development but absence of formal description of software architecture causes different impede in software development. To cope with these difficulties, ontology has been used as artifact. This paper proposes ontology for software architectural design based on IEEE model for architecture description and Kruchten 4+1 model for viewpoints classification. For categorization of style and views, ISO/IEC 42010 has been used. Corpus method has been used to evaluate ontology. The main aim of the proposed ontology is to classify and locate software architectural design information.

Keywords: semantic-based software architecture, software architecture, ontology, software engineering

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Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

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We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: attractor , cardiac, entropy, holter, mathematical , prediction

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Authors: Somayeh Zeinali

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A component is generally defined as a piece of executable software with a published interface. Component-based software engineering (CBSE) has become recognized as a new sub-discipline of software engineering. In the component-based software development, components cannot be completely secure and thus easily become vulnerable. Some researchers have investigated this issue and proposed approaches to detect component intrusions or protect distributed components. Software security also refers to the process of creating software that is considered secure.The terms “dependability”, “trustworthiness”, and “survivability” are used interchangeably to describe the properties of software security.

Keywords: component-based software development, component-based software engineering , software security attributes, dependability, component

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Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

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This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self-excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operating as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machine operating as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: I. Apostol, M. Mosoarca

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Romania is a seismic country, with two major seismic zones, Vrancea and Banat. One of the most important cities from Banat seismic area is Timisoara, where a lot of valuable historical buildings were built before any design codes, but still they kept their stability during past earthquakes. This article presents the influence of the adjacent buildings during an earthquake and the way that the specific failure mechanism is changed when the building is part of an aggregate. The investigation was made using nonlinear analysis based on Tremuri software, first analyzing the buildings as isolated and second, considering the entire aggregate of buildings. There were noticed significant differences through the two situations regarding the specific failure mechanism activated for each building, showing the fact that in some situations, the presence of the adjacent buildings has positive or negative contribution for the seismic behavior of the analyzed one. The difference between the failure mechanism of the same buildings considered isolated and in aggregate aims to provide explications for the good structural state of the existing historical areas of Timisoara, as part of a larger multidisciplinary study, which will help local authorities to prioritize the consolidation works for the historical buildings in order to assure that the history of the city will be kept alive for the next generations.

Keywords: failure mechanism, analysis, aggregate, masonry, earthquake

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Authors: S. W. Liu, J. H. Lv, W. Z. Wang

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In recent years, the failure accidents in petrochemical industry have been frequent, and have posed great security problems in personnel and property. The improvement of petrochemical safety is highly requested in order to prevent re-occurrence of severe accident. This study focuses on surveying the failure cases occurred in petrochemical field, which were extracted from journals of engineering failure, including engineering failure analysis and case studies in engineering failure analysis. The relation of failure mode, failure mechanism, type of components, and type of materials was analyzed in this study. And the analytical results showed that failures occurred more frequently in vessels and piping among the petrochemical equipment. Moreover, equipment made of carbon steel and stainless steel accounts for the majority of failures compared to other materials. This may be related to the application of the equipment and the performance of the material. In addition, corrosion failures were the largest in number of occurrence in the failure of petrochemical equipment, in which stress corrosion cracking accounts for a large proportion. This may have a lot to do with the service environment of the petrochemical equipment. Therefore, it can be concluded that the corrosion prevention of petrochemical equipment is particularly important.

Keywords: cases analysis, corrosion, failure, petrochemical industry

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Authors: V. V. Singh

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We have studied the reliability measures of a system, which consists of two subsystems i.e. subsystem-1 and subsystem-2 in series configuration under different types of failure. The subsystem-1 has three identical units in parallel configuration and operating under 2-out-of-3: G policy and connected to subsystem-2 in series configuration. Each subsystem has different types of failure and repair rates. An important cause for failure of system is unsuitability of the environmental conditions, like overheating, weather conditions, heavy rainfall, storm etc. The environmental failure is taken into account in the proposed repairable system. Supplementary variable technique is used to study of system and some traditional measures such as; availability, reliability, MTTF and profit function are obtained for different values of parameters. In the proposed model, some particular cases of failure rates are explicitly studied.

Keywords: environmental failure, human failure, availability, MTTF, reliability, profit analysis, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula

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Authors: Altoumi Alndalusi

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High-temperature hydrogen attack (HTHA) failure is the common phenomena at elevated temperature in hydrogen environment in oil and gas field. The failure occurred once after four years at the internal surface of Platforming elbow. Both visual and microscopic examinations revealed that the failure was initiated due to blistering forming followed by large cracking at the inner surface. Crack morphology showed that the crack depth was about 50% of material wall thickness and its behavior generally was intergranular. This study concluded that the main reason led to failure due to incorrect material selection comparing to the platforming conditions.

Keywords: decarburization, failure, heat affected zone, morphology, partial pressure, plate form

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Abdelmounaim Zanaz, Sylvie Yotte, Fazia Fouchal, Alaa Chateauneuf

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode is the most reported mode, i.e. the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this assumption, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation CV. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the modulus variation of voussoirs is proposed. The failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each CV value as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of CV, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increase with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young modulus of the segments is proven, taken it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault

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Authors: Aydin Azizi, Ahmed Al. Azizi

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Mechanical seals are essential components in centrifugal pumps since they help in controlling leaking out of the liquid that is pumped under pressure. Unlike the common types of packaging, mechanical seals are highly efficient and they reduce leakage by a great extent. However, all multiphase mechanical seals leak and they are subject to failure. Some of the factors that have been recognized to their failure include excessive heating, open seal faces, as well as environment related factors that trigger failure of the materials used to manufacture seals. The proposed research study will explore the failure of multiphase mechanical seal in centrifugal pumps. The objective of the study includes how to reduce the failure in multiphase mechanical seals and to make them more efficient.

Keywords: mechanical seals, centrifugal pumps, multi phase failure, excessive heating

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Authors: Majid Yazdandoust

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This study, tries to suggest a design method based on displacement using finite difference numerical modeling in reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. In this case, dynamic loading characteristics such as duration, frequency, peak ground acceleration, geometrical characteristics of reinforced soil structure and type of the site are considered to correct the pseudo static method and finally introduce the pseudo static coefficient as a function of seismic performance level and peak ground acceleration. For this purpose, the influence of dynamic loading characteristics, reinforcement length, height of reinforced system and type of the site are investigated on seismic behavior of reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. Numerical results illustrate that the seismic response of this type of wall is highly dependent to cumulative absolute velocity, maximum acceleration, and height and reinforcement length so that the reinforcement length can be introduced as the main factor in shape of failure. Considering the loading parameters, mechanically stabilized earth wall parameters and type of the site showed that the used method in this study leads to most efficient designs in comparison with other methods which are generally suggested in cods that are usually based on limit-equilibrium concept. The outputs show the over-estimation of equilibrium design methods in comparison with proposed displacement based methods here.

Keywords: pseudo static coefficient, seismic performance design, numerical modeling, steel strip reinforcement, retaining walls, cumulative absolute velocity, failure shape

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Authors: Sundus Ayyaz, Saad Rehman, Usman Qamar

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Software Architecture is the basic structure of software that states the development and advancement of a software system. Software architecture is also considered as a significant tool for the construction of high quality software systems. A clean design leads to the control, value and beauty of software resulting in its longer life while a bad design is the cause of architectural erosion where a software evolution completely fails. This paper discusses the occurrence of software architecture erosion and presents a set of methods for the detection, declaration and prevention of architecture erosion. The causes and symptoms of architecture erosion are observed with the examples of prescriptive and descriptive architectures and the practices used to stop this erosion are also discussed by considering different types of software erosion and their affects. Consequently finding and devising the most suitable approach for fighting software architecture erosion and in some way reducing its affect is evaluated and tested on different scenarios.

Keywords: software architecture, architecture erosion, prescriptive architecture, descriptive architecture

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

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In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

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Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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