Search results for: sequential causal inference

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Najmeh Bemani

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In this paper, different concrete codes including America, New Zealand, Mexico, Italy, India, Canada, Hong Kong, Euro Code and Britain are compared with the Iranian concrete design code. First, by using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the codes having the most correlation with the Iranian ninth issue of the national regulation are determined. Consequently, two anticipated methods are used for comparing the codes: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multi-variable regression. The results show that ANN performs better. Predicting is done by using only tensile steel ratio and with ignoring the compression steel ratio.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, anticipate method, artificial neural network, concrete design code, multi-variable regression

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Authors: Akshay Patil

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Objective: Mediation analysis identifies causal pathways by testing the relationships between the NCR, the OS, and an intermediate variable that mediates the relationship between the Nimotuzumab-cisplatin-radiation (NCR) and OS. Introduction: In randomized controlled trials, the primary interest is in the mechanisms by which an intervention exerts its effects on the outcomes. Clinicians are often interested in how the intervention works (or why it does not work) through hypothesized causal mechanisms. In this work, we highlight the value of understanding causal mechanisms in randomized trial by applying causal mediation analysis in a randomized trial in oncology. Methods: Data was obtained from a phase III randomized trial (Subgroup of HPVNOCP). NCR is reported to significantly improve the OS of patients locally advanced head and neck cancer patients undergoing definitive chemoradiation. Here, based on trial data, the mediating effect of NCR on patient overall survival was systematically quantified through progression-free survival(PFS), disease free survival (DFS), Loco-regional failure (LRF), and the disease control rate (DCR), Overall response rate (ORR). Effects of potential mediators on the HR for OS with NCR versus cisplatin-radiation (CR) were analyzed by Cox regression models. Statistical analyses were performed using R software Version 3.6.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) Results: Effects of potential mediator PFS was an association between NCR treatment and OS, with an indirect-effect (IE) 0.76(0.62 – 0.95), which mediated 60.69% of the treatment effect. Taking into account baseline confounders, the overall adjusted hazard ratio of death was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43 – 0.96; P=0.03). The DFS was also a significant mediator and had an IE 0.77 (95% CI; 0.62-0.93), 58% mediated). Smaller mediation effects (maximum 27%) were observed for LRF with IE 0.88(0.74 – 1.06). Both DCR and ORR mediated 10% and 15%, respectively, of the effect of NCR vs. CR on the OS with IE 0.65 (95% CI; 0.81 – 1.08) and 0.94(95% CI; 0.79 – 1.04). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that PFS and DFS were the most important mediators of the OS with nimotuzumab to weekly cisplatin-radiation in HPVNOCP.

Keywords: mediation analysis, cancer data, survival, NCR, HPV negative oropharyngeal

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Authors: Lubos Rojka

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The common perception of morally responsible behavior is that it presupposes freedom of choice, and that free decisions and actions are not determined by natural events, but by a person. In other words, the moral agent has the ability and the possibility of doing otherwise when making morally responsible decisions, and natural causal determinism cannot fully account for morally significant freedom. The incompatibility between a person’s morally significant freedom and causal determinism appears to be a natural position. Nevertheless, some of the most influential philosophical theories on moral responsibility are compatibilist or semi-compatibilist, and they exclude the requirement of alternative possibilities, which contradicts the claims of classical incompatibilism. The compatibilists often employ Frankfurt-style thought experiments to prove their theory. The goal of this paper is to examine the role of imaginary Frankfurt-style examples in compatibilist accounts. More specifically, the compatibilist accounts defended by John Martin Fischer and Michael McKenna will be inserted into the broader understanding of a person elaborated by Harry Frankfurt, Robert Kane and Walter Glannon. Deeper analysis reveals that the exclusion of alternative possibilities based on Frankfurt-style examples is problematic and misleading. A more comprehensive account of moral responsibility and morally significant (source) freedom requires higher order complex theories of human will and consciousness, in which rational and self-creative abilities and a real possibility to choose otherwise, at least on some occasions during a lifetime, are necessary. Theoretical moral reasons and their logical relations seem to require a sort of higher-order agent-causal incompatibilism. The ability of theoretical or abstract moral reasoning requires complex (strongly emergent) mental and conscious properties, among which an effective free will, together with first and second-order desires. Such a hierarchical theoretical model unifies reasons-responsiveness, mesh theory and emergentism. It is incompatible with physical causal determinism, because such determinism only allows non-systematic processes that may be hard to predict, but not complex (strongly) emergent systems. An agent’s effective will and conscious reflectivity is the starting point of a morally responsible action, which explains why a decision is 'up to the subject'. A free decision does not always have a complete causal history. This kind of an emergentist source hyper-incompatibilism seems to be the best direction of the search for an adequate explanation of moral responsibility in the traditional (merit-based) sense. Physical causal determinism as a universal theory would exclude morally significant freedom and responsibility in the traditional sense because it would exclude the emergence of and supervenience by the essential complex properties of human consciousness.

Keywords: consciousness, free will, determinism, emergence, moral responsibility

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Authors: Muhammad Umar Hassan

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Renal cell carcinoma is a subset of kidney cancer that arises in the lining of DCT and is present in parenchymal tissue. Diagnosis is based on lab reports, including urinalysis, renal function tests (RFTs), and electrolyte balance, along with imaging techniques. Organ failure and other complications have been commonly observed in these cases. Over the years, the presentation of patients has varied, so carcinoma was classified on the basis of site, shape, and consistency for detailed analysis. Lifestyle patterns and occupational history were inquired about and recorded. Methods: Data from 100 patients presenting to the oncology and nephrology department of Mayo Hospital in the year 2015-2020 were included in this retrospective study on a random basis. The study was specifically focused on three risk factors. Smoking, occupational exposures, and Hakim medicine are taken by the patient for any cause. After procurement of data, follow-up contacts of these patients were established, resulting in a detailed analysis of lifestyle. Conclusion: The inference drawn is a direct causal link between smoking, industrial workplace exposure, and Hakim medicine with the development of Renal Cell Carcinoma. It was shown in the majority of the patients and hence confirmed our hypothesis.

Keywords: renal cell carcinoma, kidney cancer, clear cell carcinoma

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study focused on early adolescent rule-breaking behavioral problems using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the rule-breaking behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a path analysis method was used to explore the correlational and causal relationships among background variables and breaking behavior variables.

Keywords: ASEBA, rule-breaking, path analysis, early adolescent

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Authors: Chidozie C. Nwobi-Okoye, Basil Q. Ochieze, Stanley Okiy

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This research reports on the modeling of age hardening process using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The age hardening output (Hardness) was predicted using ANFIS. The input parameters were ageing time, temperature and percentage composition of cow horn particles (CHp%). The results show the correlation coefficient (R) of the predicted hardness values versus the measured values was of 0.9985. Subsequently, values outside the experimental data points were predicted. When the temperature was kept constant, and other input parameters were varied, the average relative error of the predicted values was 0.0931%. When the temperature was varied, and other input parameters kept constant, the average relative error of the hardness values predictions was 80%. The results show that ANFIS with coarse experimental data points for learning is not very effective in predicting process outputs in the age hardening operation of A356 alloy/CHp particulate composite. The fine experimental data requirements by ANFIS make it more expensive in modeling and optimization of age hardening operations of A356 alloy/CHp particulate composite.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), age hardening, aluminum alloy, metal matrix composite

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Authors: Panupong Lohrattanarungrot, Falan Srisuriyachai

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Polymer flooding is a well-known technique used for controlling mobility ratio in heterogeneous reservoirs, leading to improvement of sweep efficiency as well as wellbore profile. However, low injectivity of viscous polymer solution attenuates oil recovery rate and consecutively adds extra operating cost. An attempt of this study is to improve injectivity of polymer solution while maintaining recovery factor, enhancing effectiveness of polymer flooding method. This study is performed by using reservoir simulation program to modify conventional single polymer slug into sequential polymer flooding, emphasizing on increasing of injectivity and also reduction of polymer amount. Selection of operating conditions for single slug polymer including pre-injected water, polymer concentration and polymer slug size is firstly performed for a layered-heterogeneous reservoir with Lorenz coefficient (Lk) of 0.32. A selected single slug polymer flooding scheme is modified into sequential polymer flooding with reduction of polymer concentration in two different modes: Constant polymer mass and reduction of polymer mass. Effects of Residual Resistance Factor (RRF) is also evaluated. From simulation results, it is observed that first polymer slug with the highest concentration has the main function to buffer between displacing phase and reservoir oil. Moreover, part of polymer from this slug is also sacrificed for adsorption. Reduction of polymer concentration in the following slug prevents bypassing due to unfavorable mobility ratio. At the same time, following slugs with lower viscosity can be injected easily through formation, improving injectivity of the whole process. A sequential polymer flooding with reduction of polymer mass shows great benefit by reducing total production time and amount of polymer consumed up to 10% without any downside effect. The only advantage of using constant polymer mass is slightly increment of recovery factor (up to 1.4%) while total production time is almost the same. Increasing of residual resistance factor of polymer solution yields a benefit on mobility control by reducing effective permeability to water. Nevertheless, higher adsorption results in low injectivity, extending total production time. Modifying single polymer slug into sequence of reduced polymer concentration yields major benefits on reducing production time as well as polymer mass. With certain design of polymer flooding scheme, recovery factor can even be further increased. This study shows that application of sequential polymer flooding can be certainly applied to reservoir with high value of heterogeneity since it requires nothing complex for real implementation but just a proper design of polymer slug size and concentration.

Keywords: polymer flooding, sequential, heterogeneous reservoir, residual resistance factor

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Authors: Kuixi Du, Thomas J. Lipscomb

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The proficiency in Mathematics skills is fundamental to success in the STEM disciplines. In the US, beginning college students who are placed in remedial/developmental Mathematics courses frequently struggle to achieve academic success. Therefore, Mathematics remediation in college has become an important concern, and providing Mathematics remediation is a prevalent way to help the students who may not be fully prepared for college-level courses. Programs vary, however, and the effectiveness of a particular remedial Mathematics program must be empirically demonstrated. The purpose of this study was to apply the sharp regression discontinuity (RD) technique to determine the effectiveness of the Jack Leaps Summer (JLS) Mathematic remediation program in supporting improved Mathematics learning outcomes among newly admitted Mathematics students in the South Dakota State University. The researchers studied the newly admitted Fall 2019 cohort of Mathematics majors (n=423). The results indicated that students whose pretest score was lower than the cut-off point and who were assigned to the JLS program experienced significantly higher scores on the post-test (Math 101 final score). Based on these results, there is evidence that the JLS program is effective in meeting its primary objective.

Keywords: causal inference, mathematisc remedial program evaluation, quasi-experimental research design, regression discontinuity design, cohort studies

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Authors: Vijay Kr. Yadav, Nilam Rathi

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Accurate prediction of glucose level for diabetes mellitus is required to avoid affecting the functioning of major organs of human body. This study describes the fundamental assumptions and two different methodologies of the Blood glucose prediction. First is based on the back-propagation algorithm of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and second is based on the Neuro-Fuzzy technique, called Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Errors between proposed methods further discussed through various statistical methods such as mean square error (MSE), normalised mean absolute error (NMAE). The main objective of present study is to develop mathematical model for blood glucose prediction before 12 hours advanced using data set of three patients for 60 days. The comparative studies of the accuracy with other existing models are also made with same data set.

Keywords: back-propagation, diabetes mellitus, fuzzy inference system, neuro-fuzzy

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Authors: Yingxu Wang

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This work presents basic research on the recursive structures and dual sequential patterns of primes for the formal proof of the Twin-Prime Conjecture (TPC). A rigorous methodology of Twin-Prime Decomposition (TPD) is developed in MATLAB to inductively verify potential twins in the dual sequences of primes. The key finding of this basic study confirms that the dual sequences of twin primes are not only symmetric but also infinitive in the unique base 6 cycle, except a limited subset of potential pairs is eliminated by the lack of dual primality. Both theory and experiments have formally proven that the infinity of twin primes stated in TPC holds in the P x P space.

Keywords: number theory, primes, twin-prime conjecture, dual primes (P x P), twin prime decomposition, formal proof, algorithm

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo M., Leonard Atuhaire, Peter Clever Rutayisire

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The main aim of this study was to establish the differences in both the determinants of stunting and the causal mechanism through which the identified determinants influence stunting amongst male and female under-fives in Uganda. Literature shows that male children below the age of five years are at a higher risk of being stunted than their female counterparts. Specifically, studies in Uganda indicate that being a male child is positively associated with stunting, while being a female is negatively associated with stunting. Data for 904 males and 829 females under-fives was extracted form UDHS-2016 survey dataset. Key variables for this study were identified and used in generating relevant models and paths. Structural equation modeling techniques were used in their generalized form (GSEM). The generalized nature necessitated specifying both the family and link functions for each response variable in the system of the model. The sex of the child (b4) was used as a grouping factor and the height for age (HAZ) scores were used to construct the status for stunting of under-fives. The estimated models and path clearly indicated that the set of underlying factors that influence male and female under-fives respectively was different and the path through which they influence stunting was different. However, some of the determinants that influenced stunting amongst male under-fives also influenced stunting amongst the female under-fives. To reduce the stunting problem to the desirable state, it is important to consider the multifaceted and complex nature of the risk factors that influence stunting amongst the under-fives but, more importantly, consider the different sex-specific factors and their causal mechanism or paths through which they influence stunting.

Keywords: stunting, underfives, sex of the child, GSEM, causal mechanism

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Authors: Nidhal Mgadmi, Abdelhafidh Othmani

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This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the current war between Russia and Ukraine. The econometric investigation runs from February 24, 2022, to April 12, 2023, focusing on seven stock market indices (S&P500, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei, TSX, MOEX, and PFTS) and seven cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litcoin, Dash, Ripple, DigiByte and XEM). In this article, we try to understand how investors react to fluctuations in financial assets to seek safe havens in cryptocurrencies. We used dynamic causality to detect a possible causal relationship in the short term and seven models to estimate the long-term relationship between cryptocurrencies and financial assets. The causal relationship between financial market indexes and cryptocurrency coins in the short run indicates that three famous cryptocurrencies (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, RIPPLE) and the two digital assets with minor popularity (XEM, Digibyte) are impacted by the German, Russian, and Ukrainian stock markets. In the long run, we found a positive and significate effect of the American, Canadian, French, and Ukrainian stock market indexes on Bitcoin. Thus, the stability of the traditional financial markets during the current war period can be explained on the one hand by investors’ fears of an unstable business climate, and on the other hand, by speculators’ sentiment towards new electronic products, which are perceived as hedging instruments and a safe haven in the face of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Keywords: causality, stock indices, cryptocurrency, war, Russia, Ukraine

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Authors: Bipasha Sen, Aditya Agarwal

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Multilingual automatic speech recognition (ASR) system is a single entity capable of transcribing multiple languages sharing a common phone space. Performance of such a system is highly dependent on the compatibility of the languages. State of the art speech recognition systems are built using sequential architectures based on recurrent neural networks (RNN) limiting the computational parallelization in training. This poses a significant challenge in terms of time taken to bootstrap and validate the compatibility of multiple languages for building a robust multilingual system. Complex architectural choices based on self-attention networks are made to improve the parallelization thereby reducing the training time. In this work, we propose Reed, a simple system based on 1D convolutions which uses very short context to improve the training time. To improve the performance of our system, we use raw time-domain speech signals directly as input. This enables the convolutional layers to learn feature representations rather than relying on handcrafted features such as MFCC. We report improvement on training and inference times by atleast a factor of 4x and 7.4x respectively with comparable WERs against standard RNN based baseline systems on SpeechOcean's multilingual low resource dataset.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, language compatibility, low resource languages, multilingual automatic speech recognition

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Authors: Zaky Musyarof, Dwi Yono Sutarto, Dwima Rindy Atika, R. B. Fajriya Hakim

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Each country should be responsible for the safety of people, especially responsible for the safety of people living in disaster-prone areas. One of those services is provides evacuation route for them. But all this time, the selection of evacuation route is seem doesn’t well organized, it could be seen that when a disaster happen, there will be many accumulation of people on the steps of evacuation route. That condition is dangerous to people because hampers evacuation process. By some methods in Statistical analysis, author tries to give a suggestion how to prepare evacuation route which is organized and based on people habit. Those methods are association rules, sequential pattern mining, hierarchical cluster analysis and fuzzy logic.

Keywords: association rules, sequential pattern mining, cluster analysis, fuzzy logic, evacuation route

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices in the past five years of ten major tech companies – Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We experimented with a variety of models– a linear regressor model, K nearest Neighbors (KNN), a sequential neural network – and algorithms - Multiplicative Weight Update, and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market

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Authors: H. Mahdjoub, B. Hamaidi, B. Zerouali, S. Rouabhia

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The issue of fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) has gained widespread industrial interest in process condition monitoring applications. Accordingly, the use of neuro-fuzzy technic seems very promising. This paper treats a diagnosis modeling a strategic equipment of an industrial installation. We propose a diagnostic tool based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The neuro-fuzzy network provides an abductive diagnosis. Moreover, it takes into account the uncertainties on the maintenance knowledge by giving a fuzzy characterization of each cause. This work was carried out with real data of a lubrication circuit from the gas turbine. The machine of interest is a gas turbine placed in a gas compressor station at South Industrial Centre (SIC Hassi Messaoud Ouargla, Algeria). We have defined the zones of good and bad functioning, and the results are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Keywords: fault detection and diagnosis, lubrication system, turbine, ANFIS, training, pattern recognition

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Authors: Rose Branch-Allen, John Jayachandran

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Background and purpose: Canada is a pluralistic, multicultural society with an ethno-cultural composition that has been shaped over time by immigrants and their descendants. Although Canada welcomes these immigrants, many will endure hardship and assimilation difficulties. Despite these life hurdles, surveys consistently disclose high life satisfaction for all Canadians. Most research studies on Life Satisfaction/ Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) have focused on one main determinant and a variety of social demographic variables to delineate the determinants of life satisfaction. However, very few research studies examine life satisfaction from a holistic approach. In addition, we need to understand the causal pathways leading to life satisfaction, and develop theories that explain why certain variables differentially influence the different components of SWB. The aim this study was to utilize a holistic approach to construct a causal model and identify major determinants of life satisfaction. Data and measures: This study utilized data from the General Social Survey, with a sample size of 19, 597. The exogenous concepts included age, gender, marital status, household size, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, location, immigration status, religiosity, and neighborhood. The intervening concepts included health, social contact, leisure, enjoyment, work-family balance, quality time, domestic labor, and sense of belonging. The endogenous concept life satisfaction was measured by multiple indicators (Cronbach’s alpha = .83). Analysis: Several multiple regression models were run sequentially to estimate path coefficients for the causal model. Results: Overall, above average satisfaction with life was reported for respondents with specific socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle characteristics. With regard to exogenous factors, respondents who were female, younger, married, from high socioeconomic status background, born in Canada, very religious, and demonstrated high level of neighborhood interaction had greater satisfaction with life. Similarly, intervening concepts suggested respondents had greater life satisfaction if they had better health, more social contact, less time on passive leisure activities and more time on active leisure activities, more time with family and friends, more enjoyment with volunteer activities, less time on domestic labor and a greater sense of belonging to the community. Conclusions and Implications: Our results suggest that a holistic approach is necessary for establishing determinants of life satisfaction, and that life satisfaction is not merely comprised of positive or negative affect rather understanding the causal process of life satisfaction. Even though, most of our findings are consistent with previous studies, a significant number of causal connections contradict some of the findings in literature today. We have provided possible explanation for these anomalies researchers encounter in studying life satisfaction and policy implications.

Keywords: causal model, holistic approach, life satisfaction, socio-demographic variables, subjective well-being

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Authors: Misagh Faezipour

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This paper explores the effects of screen time on children from a systems engineering perspective. We reviewed literature from several related works on the effects of screen time on children to explore all factors and interrelationships that would impact children that are subjected to using long screen times. Factors such as kids' age, parent attitudes, parent screen time influence, amount of time kids spend with technology, psychosocial and physical health outcomes, reduced mental imagery, problem-solving and adaptive thinking skills, obesity, unhealthy diet, depressive symptoms, health problems, disruption in sleep behavior, decrease in physical activities, problematic relationship with mothers, language, social, emotional delays, are examples of some factors that could be either a cause or effect of screen time. A systems engineering perspective is used to explore all the factors and factor relationships that were discovered through literature. A causal model is used to illustrate a graphical representation of these factors and their relationships. Through the causal model, the factors with the highest impacts can be realized. Future work would be to develop a system dynamics model to view the dynamic behavior of the relationships and observe the impact of changes in different factors in the model. The different changes on the input of the model, such as a healthier diet or obesity rate, would depict the effect of the screen time in the model and portray the effect on the children’s health and other factors that are important, which also works as a decision support tool.

Keywords: children, causal model, screen time, systems engineering, system dynamics

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Authors: Yingxu Wang, Jianhua Lu, Jun Peng, Jiawei Zhang

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The fundamental demand in contemporary intelligent science towards Autonomous AI (AI*) is the creation of unprecedented formal means of Intelligent Mathematics (IM). It is discovered that natural intelligence is inductively created rather than exhaustively trained. Therefore, IM is a family of algebraic and denotational mathematics encompassing Inference Algebra, Real-Time Process Algebra, Concept Algebra, Semantic Algebra, Visual Frame Algebra, etc., developed in our labs. IM plays indispensable roles in training-free AI* theories and systems beyond traditional empirical data-driven technologies. A set of applications of IM-driven AI* systems will be demonstrated in contemporary intelligence science, AI*, and cognitive computers.

Keywords: intelligence mathematics, foundations of intelligent science, autonomous AI, cognitive computers, inference algebra, real-time process algebra, concept algebra, semantic algebra, applications

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Authors: Yul Y. Nazaruddin, Anas Y. Widiaribowo, Satriyo Nugroho

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Boiler is one of the critical unit in a petrochemical plant. Steam produced by the boiler is used for various processes in the plant such as urea and ammonia plant. An alternative method to optimize the boiler combustion system is presented in this paper. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approach is applied to model the boiler using real-time operational data collected from a boiler unit of the petrochemical plant. Nonlinear equation obtained is then used to optimize the air to fuel ratio using Genetic Algorithm, resulting an optimal ratio of 15.85. This optimal ratio is then maintained constant by ratio controller designed using inverse dynamics based on ANFIS. As a result, constant value of oxygen content in the flue gas is obtained which indicates more efficient combustion process.

Keywords: ANFIS, boiler, combustion process, genetic algorithm, optimization.

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, D. Meena

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Growth of traffic brings various negative effects, such as road accidents. To avoid such problems, a model is developed for the purpose of highway safety. In such areas, fuzzy logic is the most well-known simulation in the larger field. A model is accomplished for hilly and steep terrain based on Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), for which output is super elevation and input data is horizontal radius, vertical gradient, accident rate (AR). This result shows that the system can be efficaciously applied as for highway safety tool distinguishing hazards components correlated to the characteristics of the highway and has a great influence to the making of decision for accident precaution in transportation models. From this model, a positive relationship between geometric elements, accident rate, and super elevation is also identified.

Keywords: accident rate, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, gradient, radius, super elevation

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Authors: Maitreyee Datta

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Buddhist lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa pramā is not the result of the causal analysis of the genesis of it. Naiyāyikas, on the other hand, has provided the lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa in terms of the causal analysis of it. Thus, though in these two philosophical systems philosophers have discussed in detail the nature of pratyakṣa pramā (perception), yet their treatments and understanding of it vary according to their respective understanding of pramā and prmāņa and their relationship. In Nyāya school, the definition (lakṣņa) of perception (pratyakṣa) has been given in terms of the process by virtue of which it has been generated. Thus, Naiyāyikas were found to provide a causal account of perception (pratyakṣa) by virtue of their lakṣaņa of it. But in Buddhist epistemology perception has been defined by virtue of the nature of perceptual knowledge (pratyakṣa pramā) which is devoid of any vikalpa or cognition. These two schools differed due to their different metaphysical presuppositions which determine their epistemological pursuits. The Naiyāyikas admitted pramā and pramāņa as separate events and they have taken pramāņa to be the cause of pramā. These presuppositions enabled them to provide a lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa pramā in terms of the causes by which it is generated. Why did the Buddhist epistemologists define perception by the unique nature of perceptual knowledge instead of the process by which it is generated? This question will be addressed and dealt with in the present paper. In doing so, the unique purpose of Buddhist philosophy will be identified which will enable us to find out an answer to the above question. This enterprise will also reveal the close relationship among some basic Buddhist presuppositions like pratityasamutpādavāda and kṣaņikavāda with Buddhist epistemological positions. In other words, their distinctive notion of pramā (knowledge) indicates their unique epistemological position which is found to comply with their basic philosophical presuppositions. The first section of the paper will present the Buddhist epistemologists’ lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa. The analysis of the lakṣaņa will be given in clear terms to reveal the nature of pratyakṣa as an instance of pramā. In the second section, an effort will be made to identify the uniqueness of such a definition. Here an articulation will be made in which the relationship among basic Buddhist presuppositions and their unique epistemological positions are determined. In the third section of the paper, an effort will be made to compare Nyāya epistemologist’s position regarding pratyakṣa with that of the Buddhist epistemologist.

Keywords: laksana, prama, pramana, pratyksa

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Authors: Shahanaz Aboobacker Ahmed, P. Ajilal

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We live in the ‘age of migration’ where global migration and repatriation is the stark reality of human lives in the contemporary world. With increasing number of people migrating and repatriating for education, work, or crisis situations, there is an ever-growing need for active research into the effects of repatriation and migration on the psychological well-being of the migrants and expatriates. Moving across borders has resulted in individual developing a third culture and hence such individual are known as Third Culture Kids (TCKs). The aim of the study was to understand the difference in the resilience between Third Culture Kids and Non- Third Culture Kids and gain an insight into how resilience is shaped by migratory experience. The sample comprised of 200 participants that included 100 TCKs and 100 Non-TCKs. The participants were in the age range group of 17-26 years and were pursuing their college education in various parts of the world. The variable of Resilience was measured using the Resilience scale developed and standardized on TCK population which included subtests; Emotional Regulation, Impulse Control, Causal Analysis, Self Efficacy, Realistic Optimism, Empathy and Reaching Out. The data was obtained from in-person sessions and over Skype. The data was analyzed using independent sample t-tests. Results indicated that there is a significant difference between TCKs and Non-TCKs on Impulse Control, Causal Analysis, Realistic Optimism, Empathy and Reaching Out. However, no significant difference was found on the sub-variables of Self Efficacy and Emotional Regulation.

Keywords: third culture kids, resilience, immigration, cross-cultural psychology, repatriation, emotional maturity, emotional regulation, impulse control, causal analysis, self-efficacy, realistic optimism, empathy, reaching out

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Authors: Ananda Perera

Abstract:

Computer-Assisted Medical Evaluation of Symptoms (CAMEOS) is a medical expert system designed to help General Practices (GPs) make an accurate diagnosis. CAMEOS comprises a knowledge base, user input, inference engine, reasoning module, and output statement. The knowledge base was developed by the author. User input is an Html file. The physician user collects data in the consultation. Data is sent to the inference engine at servers. CAMEOS uses set theory to simulate diagnostic reasoning. The program output is a list of differential diagnoses, the most probable diagnosis, and the diagnostic reasoning.

Keywords: CDSS, computerized decision support systems, expert systems, general practice, diagnosis, diagnostic systems, primary care diagnostic system, artificial intelligence in medicine

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

Abstract:

Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Srinivasa Rao Mandadi, C. Pradeep Reddy, N. Ramesh Babu

Abstract:

In this paper quickly illustrate the correlation investigation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) and daptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models done by climate estimating. The climate determining is taken from University of Waterloo. The information is taken as Relative Humidity, Ambient Air Temperature, Barometric Pressure and Wind Direction utilized within this paper. The paper is carried out by analyzing the exhibitions are seen by demonstrating of ARIMA and ANIFIS model like with Sum of average of errors. Versatile Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) demonstrating is carried out by Mat lab programming and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) displaying is produced by utilizing XLSTAT programming. ANFIS is carried out in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Mat Lab programming.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANFIS, fuzzy surmising tool stash, weather forecasting, MATLAB

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

Abstract:

This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, Granger causality

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: P. Satish Kumar, K. Ramakrishna, Ch. Lokeshwar Reddy, G. Sridhar

Abstract:

This paper presents two different sequential switching hybrid-modulation strategies and implemented for cascaded multilevel inverters. Hybrid modulation strategies represent the combinations of Fundamental-Frequency Pulse Width Modulation (FFPWM) and Multilevel Sinusoidal-Modulation (MSPWM) strategies, and are designed for performance of the well-known Alternative Phase Opposition Disposition (APOD), Phase Shifted Carrier (PSC). The main characteristics of these modulations are the reduction of switching losses with good harmonic performance, balanced power loss dissipation among the devices with in a cell, and among the series-connected cells. The feasibility of these modulations is verified through spectral analysis, power loss analysis and simulation.

Keywords: cascaded multilevel inverters, hybrid modulation, power loss analysis, pulse width modulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 508