Search results for: risk exposure

Authors: Saud Al Mahdi

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Traditionally,portfolio managers have been discouraged from timing the market. This means, for example, that equity managers have been forced to adhere strictly to a benchmark with static or relatively stable components, such as the SP 500 or the Russell 3000. This means that the portfolio’s exposures to all risk factors should mimic as closely as possible the corresponding exposures of the benchmark. The main risk factor, of course, is the market itself. Effectively, a long-only portfolio would be constrained to have a beta 1. More recently, however, managers have been given greater discretion to adjust their portfolio’s risk exposures (in particular, the beta of their portfolio) dynamically to match the manager’s beliefs about future performance of the risk factors themselves. This freedom translates into the manager’s ability to adjust the portfolio’s beta dynamically. These strategies have come to be known as smart beta strategies. Adjusting beta dynamically amounts to attempting to "time" the market; that is, to increase exposure when one anticipates that the market will rise, and to decrease it when one anticipates that the market will fall. Traditionally, market timing has been believed to be impossible to perform effectively and consistently. Moreover, if a majority of market participants do it, their combined actions could destabilize the market. The aim of this project is to investigate so-called smart beta strategies to determine if they really can add value, or if they are merely marketing gimmicks used to sell dubious investment strategies.

Keywords: beta, alpha, active portfolio management, trading strategies

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Authors: Evelyne Nguegwouo, Raoul Fonkem Sonfack Tsakem, Abel Wade, Gabriel Nama Medoua, Kamgaing Theophile

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Fresh and smoked fish are widely consumed in Cameroon. The traditional nature of smoking, the lack of hygiene in production, the poor preservation of stocks and the long storage time for certain types of fish considerably favor the contamination of products by molds, which secrete toxic molecules called mycotoxins. Today there are more than 400 types of mycotoxins, Aflatoxins being the most formidable. These toxins are considered carcinogenic in humans. It is in this perspective that we proposed to evaluate the total Aflatoxins in the fish marketed and consumed by the populations of the city of Yaoundé in Cameroon. On the one hand, it was a question of conducting a survey of fish consumers and sellers in points of sale, sampling fish of three species [Marquereau (Scomber scombrus), Cod (Gadus morhua) and Bifaka (Ethmalosa fimbriata)], randomly in some markets of the city to evaluate the total Aflatoxins contents (B1, B2, G1, G2) by the quantitative ELISA method and finally to estimate the level of exposure of the populations. It emerges from this study that of the 30 samples analyzed, 96.1% contained total Aflatoxins and two samples had total Aflatoxins levels above the standard, which is 20 ppb. These first results show that the risk is present in Cameroon and in order to improve the quality of marketed fish in terms of mycotoxins, a more thorough control must be done from the production chain to the consumer.

Keywords: aflatoxins, evaluation, exposure, mycotoxins, fish

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Authors: Baobao Li

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Operational risk covers all operations of commercial banks and has a close relationship with the bank’s internal control. But in the commercial banks' management practice, internal control is always separated from the operational risk measurement. With the increasing of operational risk events in recent years, operational risk is paid more and more attention by regulators and banks’ managements. The paper first discussed the relationship between internal control and operational risk management and used CVaR-POT model to measure operational risk, and then put forward a modified measurement method (to use operational risk assessment results to modify the measurement results of the CVaR-POT model). The paper also analyzed the necessity and rationality of this method. The method takes into consideration the influence of internal control, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of operational risk measurement and save the economic capital for commercial banks, avoiding the drawbacks of using some mainstream models one-sidedly.

Keywords: commercial banks, internal control, operational risk, risk measurement

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Authors: Robin L. Rohrer

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Introduction: Pre-natal or early childhood exposure to the medical radiation used in diagnosis or treatment is an identified risk for childhood cancers but can be difficult to document. The author developed a family questionnaire/interview form to identify possible exposures. Aims: This retrospective study examines pre-natal and early childhood medical radiation exposure in a cohort of children diagnosed with a solid tumor including brain tumors from 1985-2015 at the Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh (CHP). The hospital is a tri-state regional referral center which treats about 150-180 new cases of cancer in children per year. About 70% are diagnosed with a solid tumor. Methods: Each consented family so far (approximately 50% of the cohort) has been interviewed in person or by the phone call. Medical staff and psycho- social staff referred patient families for the interview with the author. Results: Among the families interviewed to date at least one medical radiation exposure has been identified (pre-conception, pre-natal or early childhood) in over 70% of diagnosed children. These exposures have included pre-conception sinus or chest CT or X-ray in either parent, sinus CT or X-ray in the mother or diagnostic radiation of chest or abdomen in children. Conclusions: Exposures to medical radiation for a child later diagnosed with cancer may occur at several critical junctures. These exposures may well contribute to a ‘perfect storm’ in the still elusive causes of childhood cancer. The author plans to expand the study from 1975 to present to hopefully further document these junctures.

Keywords: pediatric, solid tumors, medical radiation, cancer

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

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In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

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Authors: Olga A. Momot, Boris I. Synzynys, Alla A. Oudalova

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Obninsk is situated in the Kaluga region 100 km southwest of Moscow on the left bank of the Protva River. Several enterprises utilizing nuclear energy are operating in the town. A special attention in the region where radiation-hazardous facilities are located has traditionally been paid to radioactive gas and aerosol releases into the atmosphere; liquid waste discharges into the Protva river and groundwater pollution. Municipal intakes involve 34 wells arranged 15 km apart in a sequence north-south along the foot of the left slope of the Protva river valley. Northern and southern water intakes are upstream and downstream of the town, respectively. They belong to river valley intakes with mixed feeding, i.e. precipitation infiltration is responsible for a smaller part of groundwater, and a greater amount is being formed by overflowing from Protva. Water intakes are maintained by the Protva river runoff, the volume of which depends on the precipitation fallen out and watershed area. Groundwater contamination with tritium was first detected in a sanitary-protective zone of the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering (SRC-IPPE) by Roshydromet researchers when realizing the “Program of radiological monitoring in the territory of nuclear industry enterprises”. A comprehensive survey of the SRC-IPPE’s industrial site and adjacent territories has revealed that research nuclear reactors and accelerators where tritium targets are applied as well as radioactive waste storages could be considered as potential sources of technogenic tritium. All the above sources are located within the sanitary controlled area of intakes. Tritium activity in water of springs and wells near the SRC-IPPE is about 17.4 – 3200 Bq/l. The observed values of tritium activity are below the intervention levels (7600 Bq/l for inorganic compounds and 3300 Bq/l for organically bound tritium). The risk has being assessed to estimate possible effect of considered tritium concentrations on human health. Data on tritium concentrations in pipe-line drinking water were used for calculations. The activity of 3H amounted to 10.6 Bq/l and corresponded to the risk of such water consumption of ~ 3·10-7 year-1. The risk value given in magnitude is close to the individual annual death risk for population living near a NPP – 1.6·10-8 year-1 and at the same time corresponds to the level of tolerable risk (10-6) and falls within “risk optimization”, i.e. in the sphere for planning the economically sound measures on exposure risk reduction. To estimate the chemical risk, physical and chemical analysis was made of waters from all springs and wells near the SRC-IPPE. Chemical risk from groundwater contamination was estimated according to the EPA US guidance. The risk of carcinogenic diseases at a drinking water consumption amounts to 5·10-5. According to the classification accepted the health risk in case of spring water consumption is inadmissible. The compared assessments of risk associated with tritium exposure, on the one hand, and the dangerous chemical (e.g. heavy metals) contamination of Obninsk drinking water, on the other hand, have confirmed that just these chemical pollutants are responsible for health risk.

Keywords: radiation-hazardous facilities, water intakes, tritium, heavy metal, health risk

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Authors: Muhammad Waqar Ashraf

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Selected heavy metals, namely Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cd, Pb, and As, in seven popular varieties of edible vegetable oils collected from Saudi Arabia, were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS) using microwave digestion. The accuracy of procedure was confirmed by certified reference materials (NIST 1577b). The concentrations for copper, zinc, iron, manganese, lead and arsenic were observed in the range of 0.035 - 0.286, 0.955 - 3.10, 17.3 - 57.8, 0.178 - 0.586, 0.011 - 0.017 and 0.011 - 0.018 µg/g, respectively. Cadmium was found to be in the range of 2.36 - 6.34 ng/g. The results are compared internationally and with standards laid down by world health agencies. A risk assessment study has been carried out to assess exposure to these metals via consumption of vegetable oils. A comparison has been made with safety intake levels for these heavy metals recommended by Institute of Medicine of the National Academies (IOM), US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). The results indicated that the dietary intakes of the selected heavy metals from daily consumption of 25 g of edible vegetable oils for a 70 kg individual should pose no significant health risk to local population.

Keywords: vegetable oils, heavy metals, contamination, health risk assessment

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Authors: Emil Danehorn, Ulla Peterson, Marie Oscarsson, Goldina Smirthwaite, Katarina Swahnberg

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Swedish students who choose to study abroad are common, but there has been limited research on exchange students. There are indications that some Swedish exchange students have been exposed to violence, but it is not known if they, already before their semester abroad, are more exposed to violence than students who remain on campus. Our aim was to investigate potential differences in exposure to physical, sexual, and emotional violence between prospective exchange students and campus students and between male and female students in general, as well as to determine any associations between mental health and exposure to violence among students in the total sample. Method: Comparative cross-sectional design using an online survey containing the NorVold Abuse Questionnaire and the General Health Questionnaire 12. A total of 565 participants took part in the study. Results: Prospective exchange students were less exposed to emotional violence compared to campus students. About one-half of all the participating female students had been exposed to sexual violence and about one-third of all the male students had been exposed to physical violence. The results also indicated that exposure to more than one form of violence was associated with poor mental health for students as a group. Conclusion: Prospective exchange students as a group do not report more exposure to physical and sexual violence than campus students but do report less exposure to emotional violence. However, the overall frequency of exposure to violence among the students was high. This highlights the need for proactive efforts for everyone, not least for exchange students who will be staying in a new environment unknown to them.

Keywords: sexual violence, physical violence, emotional violence, exchange students, mental health

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Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Neveen Ali-Saleh Darawsha

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Exposure to community violence (CV) is alarmingly high and emphasizes negative consequences. The present study examines the rates and consequences of exposure to community violence, among Palestinian adolescents from Israel, age ranged 14-18. Specifically, it examines whether exposure to community violence is indirectly related to academic achievement through internalizing and externalizing symptoms among adolescents; and whether the indirect effects of exposure to CV and academic achievements will differ when the parents have different levels of psychological well-being. Method: Semi systematic random sample of 760 Palestinian adolescents in Israel, (320 boys, and 440 girls) filled out a self-administration questionnaire. Most of the adolescents had witnessed community violence during the last year and during their lifetime, and more than one third had directly experienced such violence during lifetime compared with 19.6% during the last year. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the indirect effects of exposure to CV and academic achievement. Results revealed that externalizing symptoms mediated the association between exposure to CV and academic achievement. There were no indirect effects through internalizing symptoms. Moreover, parental psychological well-being moderated the indirect effects between externalizing symptoms and academic achievements. Conclusion: Findings highlight the importance of targeting externalizing symptoms for adolescents that could improve their behaviors and also their academic achievements as well. limitations of the study, implications for the practice and recommendations for future research are discussed.

Keywords: community violence, witnessing violence, direct personal experiencing, academic achievement, psychological well-being, Palestinian adolescents

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Authors: Parastou Kharazmi

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Degradation of building materials particularly pipelines causes environmental damage during renovation or replacement and is a time consuming and costly process. Rehabilitation by polymer composites is a solution for renovation of degraded pipeline in heritage buildings and other structures which are less costly, faster and causes less damage to the environment; however, it is still not clear for how long these materials can perform as expected in the field and working condition. To study their service life, two types of composites based on Epoxy and Polyester resins have been evaluated by accelerated exposure and field exposure. The primary degradation agent used in accelerated exposure has been cycling temperature with half of the tests performed in presence of water. Thin films of materials used in accelerated testing were prepared in laboratory by using the same amount of material as well as technique of multi-layers application used in majority of the field installations. Extreme intensity levels of degradation agents have been used only to evaluate materials properties and as also mentioned in ISO 15686, are not directly correlated with degradation mechanisms that would be experienced in service. In the field exposure study, the focus has been to identify possible failure modes, causes, and effects. In field exposure, it has been observed that there are other degradation agents present which can be investigated further such as presence of contaminants and rust before application which prevents formation of a uniform layer of polymer or incompatibility between dissimilar materials. This part of the study also highlighted the importance of application’s quality of the materials in the field for providing the expected performance and service life. Results from extended accelerated exposure and field exposure can help in choosing inspection techniques, establishing the primary degradation agents and can be used for ageing exposure programs with clarifying relationship between different exposure periods and sites.

Keywords: building, renovation, service life, pipelines

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Authors: Bremmy Laksono, Nurul Qomarilla, Riksa Parikrama, Dyan K. Nugrahaeni, Willyanti Soewondo, Dadang S. H. Effendi, Eriska Rianti, Arlette S. Setiawan, Ine Sasmita, Risti S. Primanti, Erna Kurnikasari, Yunia Sribudiani

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Down syndrome is a chromosomal abnormality of chromosome 21 which can appear in man or woman. Maternal age and paternal age, history of radiation are the common risk factors. This study was conducted to observe risk factors which related as causes of Down syndrome. In this case control study using purposive sampling technique, 84 respondents were chosen from Cell Culture and Cytogenetics Laboratory patients in Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia. They were used as study samples and divided into 42 Down syndrome cases and 42 control respondents. This study used univariate and bivariate analysis (chi-square). Samples population were West Java residents, the biggest province in Indonesia in number of population. The results showed maternal age, paternal age, history of radiation exposure and family history were not significantly related to Down syndrome baby. Moreover, all of those factors also did not contribute to the risk of having a child with Down syndrome in patients at Cell Culture and Cytogenetics Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran. Therefore, we should investigate other risk factors of Down syndrome in West Java population.

Keywords: down syndrome, family history, maternal age, paternal age, risk factor

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Mostosi C., Stéphenne J., Kempeneers E.

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Introduction: Refuellers from Brussels South Charleroi Airport (BSCA) expressed concerns about the risks involved in handling JET-A1 fuel. The HSE Manager of BSCA, in collaboration with the occupational physician and the industrial hygiene unit of the External Service of Occupational Medicine, decided to assess the toxicological exposure of these workers. Materials and methods: Two measurement methods were used. The first was to assay three types of metabolites in urine to highlight the exposure to xylenes, toluene, and benzene in aircraft fuels. Out of 32 refuellers in the department, 26 participated in the sampling, and 23 samples were exploited. The second method targeted the assessment of environmental exposure to certain potentially hazardous substances that refuellers are likely to breathe in work areas at the airport. It was decided to carry out two ambient air measurement campaigns, using static systems on the one hand and, on the other hand, using individual sensors worn by the refuellers at the level of the respiratory tract. Volatile organic compounds and diesel particles were analyzed. Results: Despite the fears that motivated these analyzes, the overall results showed low levels of exposure, far below the existing limit values, both in air quality and in urinary measurements. Conclusion: These results are comparable to a study carried out in several French airports. The staff could be reassured, and then the medical surveillance was modified by the occupational physician. With the aviation development at BSCA, equipment and methods are evolving. Their exposure will have to be reassessed.

Keywords: refuelling, airport, exposure, fuel, occupational health, air quality

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Hamed Nafar, Sajad Rezaei, Hamid Behbahani

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Safety analysis of the roads through the accident rates which is one of the widely used tools has been resulted from the direct exposure method which is based on the ratio of the vehicle-kilometers traveled and vehicle-travel time. However, due to some fundamental flaws in its theories and difficulties in gaining access to the data required such as traffic volume, distance and duration of the trip, and various problems in determining the exposure in a specific time, place, and individual categories, there is a need for an algorithm for prioritizing the road safety so that with a new exposure method, the problems of the previous approaches would be resolved. In this way, an efficient application may lead to have more realistic comparisons and the new method would be applicable to a wider range of time, place, and individual categories. Therefore, an algorithm was introduced to prioritize the safety of roads using the quasi-induced exposure method and utilizing the analytical hierarchy process. For this research, 11 provinces of Iran were chosen as case study locations. A rural accidents database was created for these provinces, the validity of quasi-induced exposure method for Iran’s accidents database was explored, and the involvement ratio for different characteristics of the drivers and the vehicles was measured. Results showed that the quasi-induced exposure method was valid in determining the real exposure in the provinces under study. Results also showed a significant difference in the prioritization based on the new and traditional approaches. This difference mostly would stem from the perspective of the quasi-induced exposure method in determining the exposure, opinion of experts, and the quantity of accidents data. Overall, the results for this research showed that prioritization based on the new approach is more comprehensive and reliable compared to the prioritization in the traditional approach which is dependent on various parameters including the driver-vehicle characteristics.

Keywords: road safety, prioritizing, Quasi-induced exposure, Analytical Hierarchy Process

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Authors: Tiberiu Socaciu, Tudor Colomeischi, Eugenia Iancu

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Business failure affects in various proportions shareholders, managers, lenders (banks), suppliers, customers, the financial community, government and society as a whole. In the era in which we have telecommunications networks, exists an interdependence of markets, the effect of a failure of a company is relatively instant. To effectively manage risk exposure is thus require sophisticated support systems, supported by analytical tools to measure, monitor, manage and control operational risks that may arise. As we know, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that managers do not want no matter what stage of life is the company they direct / lead. In the analysis made by us, by the nature of economic models that are reviewed (Altman, Conan-Holder etc.), estimating the risk of bankruptcy of a company corresponds to some extent with its own business cycle tracing of the company. Various models for predicting bankruptcy take into account direct / indirect aspects such as market position, company growth trend, competition structure, characteristics and customer retention, organization and distribution, location etc. From the perspective of our research we will now review the economic models known in theory and practice for estimating the risk of bankruptcy; such models are based on indicators drawn from major accounting firms.

Keywords: Anglo-Saxon models, continental models, national models, statistical models

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Authors: Samarpreet Singh, Gerald Giesbrecht

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Both c-section and antibiotic exposure are linked to gut microbiota imbalance in infants. Such disturbance is associated with the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) axis function. However, the literature only has contradicting evidence for the association between c-sections and the HPA axis. Therefore, this study aims to test if the mode of delivery and antibiotics exposure is associated with the HPA axis. Also, whether exposure to both interacts with the HPA-axis. It was hypothesized that associations and interactions would be observed. Secondary data analysis was used for this co-relational study. Data for the mode of delivery and antibiotics exposure variables were documented from hospital records or self-questionnaires. In addition, cortisol levels (Area under the curve with respect to increasing (AUCi) and Area under the curve with respect to ground (AUCg)) were based on saliva collected from three months old during the infant’s visit to the lab and after drawing blood. One-way and between-subject ANOVA analyses were run on data. No significant association between delivery mode and infant cortisol level was found, AUCi and AUCg, p > .05. Only the infant’s AUCg was found to be significantly higher if there were antibiotics exposure at delivery (p = .001) or their mothers were exposed during pregnancy (p < .05). Infants born by c-section and exposed to antibiotics at three months had higher AUCi than those born vaginally, p < .02. These results imply that antibiotic exposure before three months is associated with an infant’s stress response. The association might increase if antibiotic exposure occurs three months after a c-section birth. However, more robust and causal evidence in future studies is needed, given a variable group’s statistically weak sample size. Nevertheless, the results of this study still highlight the unintended consequences of antibiotic exposure during delivery and pregnancy.

Keywords: HPA-axis, antibiotics, c-section, gut-microbiota, development, stress

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Yi-Shuan ShaoShao, Yen-An Tsai, Chia-Huang Chang, Kai-Wei Liao, Ming-Song Tsai, Mei-Lien Chen

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Organophosphate pesticides (OPs) is an environmental hormone with proven endocrine-disrupting effects that may affect the growth and development in human. A large amount of organophosphate pesticides (OPs) is used throughout Taiwan, and human may be exposed through dietary intake or residential use. During pregnancy, OPs can be transferred to the blood stream reaching the fetus through the placenta. The aim of this study was to explore the association between maternal OPs exposure levels and fetal developments and birth outcomes. A birth cohort was follow-up. Maternal urine sample were collected at the first, second, and third gestational trimester. Fetal growth characteristics were measured by ultrasonic scan and birth outcomes were assessed by pediatrician. Urinary metabolite of organophosphate pesticides were assessed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The analytes included dimethylphosphate (DMP), dimethylthiophosphate (DMTP), dimethyldithiophosphates (DMDTP), diethylphosphate (DEP), diethylthiophosphate (DETP), and diethyldithiophosphate (DEDTP). We found that all of urine samples in each trimester were detected at least one metabolite for dialkyl phosphate (DAP). The detection rate range of OP urinary metabolites were from the lowest 22% DEDTP to the highest 100% DMP and DMTP. And to compared geometric means (GM) of urinary metabolites with three trimesters, that third trimester had the highest concentration for DMPs, DEPs, and DAPs in pregnant women were 368.01, 169.85 and 543.75 nmol/g creatinine, respectively. We observed that DAPs concentration in first and second trimester were significantly negative association with head circumference. DMPs in first trimester was significantly negative association with thoracic circumference (p=0.05) by spearman correlation. Our results support associations with prenatal OPs exposure with fetal head circumference and thoracic circumference. It provided that maternal OPs exposure might affect birth outcomes. Thus, prenatal exposure to OPs and health risk worthy of attention and concern.

Keywords: DAPs, birth outcomes, organophosphate pesticides, prenatal

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Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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Authors: Sidra Suleman, Maliha Suleman, Jinesh Shah

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Maxillary canines play a crucial role in occlusion and aesthetics. Successful management of impacted canines requires early identification and intervention to prevent complications such as resorption of adjacent teeth and cystic changes. Although removal of the deciduous canine can encourage normal eruption of its successor, this is not always successful. Some patients may require surgical exposure and bonding of a gold chain to mobilise and align the canine, which can take up to 3 years. As this procedure has various risks, patients need to be appropriately consented to. Failure of such treatment commonly occurs due to inadequate anchorage or failure of the gold chain attachment, but in some cases, this is due to ankylosis. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of ankylosis of unerupted maxillary ectopic canines following surgical exposure and orthodontic alignment at the Maxillofacial and Orthodontic Department, Royal Stoke University Hospital (RSUH), United Kingdom. Methodology: Patients treated from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, were retrospectively studied. Electronic records with post-treatment follow-up at 3-6 months and 12-15 months were extracted and analysed. Patients were excluded based on three criteria, non-compliance with orthodontic treatment post-surgery, presence of canine transposition, and external orthodontic treatment. Sample: Overall, 159 suitable patients were selected from the 171 patients identified. Surgical exposure and gold chain bonding was carried out for a total of 206 maxillary canines, with the pattern of impaction being 159 (77.2 %) palatal, 46 (22.3%) buccal, and 1 (0.49%) in line of the arch. The sample consisted of 57 (35.8%) males and 102 (64.2%) females between the age range of 10 to 32 years, with the mean age being 15 years. The procedures were carried out under general anaesthesia for all but three patients, with two cases being repeats. Closed exposure was carried out for 189 (91.7%) canines. Results: The incidence of ankylosis from this study was 0.97%. In total, two patients had upper left canine ankylosis, which was identified at their 12-15 months orthodontic follow-up. Both patients were males, one having closed exposure at age 15 and the other having open exposure at age 19. Conclusions: Although this data shows that there is a low risk of ankylosis (0.97%), it highlights the difficulty in predicting which patients may be affected, and thus, a thorough pre-treatment assessment and careful observation during treatment is necessary. Future studies involving larger cohorts are warranted to further analyse factors affecting outcomes.

Keywords: ankylosis, ectopic, maxillary canines, orthodontics

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Benedicta Asante, Brenna Bath, Olugbenga Adebayo, Catherine Trask

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Background: Waste Collection Workers’ (WCWs) activities contribute greatly to the recycling sector and are an important component of the waste management industry. As the recycling sector evolves, reports of injuries and fatal accidents in the industry demand notice particularly common and debilitating musculoskeletal disorders such as low back pain (LBP). WCWs are likely exposed to diverse work-related hazards that could contribute to LBP. However, to our knowledge there has never been a systematic review or other synthesis of LBP findings within this workforce. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of LBP among WCWs. Method: A comprehensive search was conducted in Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health e-publications with search term categories ‘low back pain’ and ‘waste collection workers’. Articles were screened at title, abstract, and full-text stages by two reviewers. Data were extracted on study design, sampling strategy, socio-demographic, geographical region, and exposure definition, definition of LBP, risk factors, response rate, statistical techniques, and LBP prevalence. Risk of bias (ROB) was assessed based on Hoy Damien’s ROB scale. Results: The search of three databases generated 79 studies. Thirty-two studies met the study inclusion criteria for both title and abstract; thirteen full-text articles met the study criteria at the full-text stage. Seven articles (54%) reported prevalence within 12 months of LBP between 42-82% among WCW. The major risk factors for LBP among WCW included: awkward posture; lifting; pulling; pushing; repetitive motions; work duration; and physical loads. Summary data and syntheses of findings was presented in trend-lines and tables to establish the several prevalence periods based on age and region distribution. Public health implications: LBP is a major occupational hazard among WCWs. In light of these risks and future growth in this industry, further research should focus on more detail ergonomic exposure assessment and LBP prevention efforts.

Keywords: low back pain, scavenger, waste collection workers, waste pickers

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Authors: Tania Mannan, Rahelee Zinnat, Fatema Jebunnesa, Israt Ara Hossain

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Background: Exposure to arsenic has known toxic effects but the effect on pregnancy outcomes is not as widely documented especially in women with diabetes. Growing evidence has suggested a potential role of arsenic exposure in the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association of urinary arsenic (UAs) with birth outcomes in GDM subjects. Methods: Under an observational cross-sectional design a total of 263 GDM subjects (age in years, M±SD, 21±3.7) residing in an arsenic affected area of Bangladesh, were subjected to a 2 sample OGTT at the third trimester of gestation. Among them, 73 GDM and 190 non-GDM subjects enrolled in this study. Clinical and anthropometric measurements were done by standard techniques. Degree of chronic arsenic exposure was assessed by the level of UAs level. According to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, GDM was diagnosed and neonatal outcomes using APGAR (Activity Pulse Grimace Appearance Respirations) Score, birth weight and size were assessed by a specialist obstetrician. Serum glucose was measured by the Glucose Oxidase method and UAs level was determined by ultraviolet/visible spectrophotometry. Result: Out of the 263 pregnant women, 28% developed GDM. Urinary Arsenic was significantly higher in the GDM as compared to the non-GDM group [UAs, µg/l, M±SD (range), 204.2±67.0 (67.0-377.0) vs 77.3±38.1 (22.0-99.0), p < 0.001]. Activity Pulse Grimace Appearance Respirations Score of the neonates from GDM mothers was significantly lower compared to the neonates from non-GDM mothers [APGAR Score, M±SD, 4.7±0.8 vs. 6.4±0.7, p<0.001]. Pearson’s correlation analysis in GDM subjects revealed that UA levels were found to have a significant positive correlation with both fasting and postprandial serum glucose levels (p < 0.001) and (p < 0.001) respectively. Again, a significant inverse correlation of UAs with birth weight and size was observed (p < 0.001). The APGAR Score of the neonates were found to have a significant negative correlation (p < 0.001) with UAs level. Conclusion: The effect of chronic arsenic exposure is associated with glucose intolerance during pregnancy and it also adversely affects birth outcomes. The study suggests further research on the impact of total arsenic exposure on pregnancy outcomes.

Keywords: APGAR score, arsenic exposure, birth outcome, gestational diabetes mellitus,

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

Abstract:

The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Giovanni Menichini, Salvatore Giacomo Morano, Gloria Terenzi, Luca Salvatori, Maurizio Orlando

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The “Guidelines for Risk Classification, Safety Assessment, and Structural Health Monitoring of Existing Bridges” were recently approved by the Italian Government to define technical standards for managing the national network of existing bridges. These guidelines provide a framework for risk mitigation and safety assessment of bridges, which are essential elements of the built environment and form the basis for the operation of transport systems. Within the guideline framework, a workflow based on three main points was proposed: (1) risk-based, i.e., based on typical parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; (2) multi-level, i.e., including six assessment levels of increasing complexity; and (3) multirisk, i.e., assessing structural/foundational, seismic, hydrological, and landslide risks. The paper focuses on applying the Italian Guidelines to specific case studies, aiming to identify the parameters that predominantly influence the determination of the “class of attention”. The significance of each parameter is determined via sensitivity analysis. Additionally, recommendations for enhancing the process of assigning the class of attention are proposed.

Keywords: bridge safety assessment, Italian guidelines implementation, risk classification, structural health monitoring

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