Search results for: random match probability

Authors: Tan Zhang, Zhongjian Wang, Jack Xin, Zhiwen Zhang

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We aim to efficiently compute the spreading speeds of reaction-diffusion-advection (RDA) fronts in divergence-free random flows under the Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (KPP) nonlinearity. We study a stochastic interacting particle method (IPM) for the reduced principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) problem of an associated linear advection-diffusion operator with spatially random coefficients. The Fourier representation of the random advection field and the Feynman-Kac (FK) formula of the principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) form the foundation of our method implemented as a genetic evolution algorithm. The particles undergo advection-diffusion and mutation/selection through a fitness function originated in the FK semigroup. We analyze the convergence of the algorithm based on operator splitting and present numerical results on representative flows such as 2D cellular flow and 3D Arnold-Beltrami-Childress (ABC) flow under random perturbations. The 2D examples serve as a consistency check with semi-Lagrangian computation. The 3D results demonstrate that IPM, being mesh-free and self-adaptive, is simple to implement and efficient for computing front spreading speeds in the advection-dominated regime for high-dimensional random flows on unbounded domains where no truncation is needed.

Keywords: KPP front speeds, random flows, Feynman-Kac semigroups, interacting particle method, convergence analysis

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Authors: Weisi Guo

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It is well established that there may be running correlations in sequential exam marks due to students sitting in the order of course registration patterns. As such, a random and non-sequential sampling of exam marks is a standard recommended practice. Here, the paper examines a large number of exam data stretching several years across different modules to see the degree to which it is true. Using the real mark distribution as a generative process, it was found that random simulated data had no more sequential randomness than the real data. That is to say, the running correlations that one often observes are statistically identical to chance. Digging deeper, it was found that some high running correlations have students that indeed share a common course history and make similar mistakes. However, at the statistical scale of a module question, the combined effect is statistically similar to the random shuffling of papers. As such, there may not be the need to take random samples for marks, but it still remains good practice to mark papers in a random sequence to reduce the repetitive marking bias and errors.

Keywords: data analysis, empirical study, exams, marking

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Authors: Linda Smail, Zineb Azouz

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Given a Bayesian network relative to a set I of discrete random variables, we are interested in computing the probability distribution P(S) where S is a subset of I. The general idea is to write the expression of P(S) in the form of a product of factors where each factor is easy to compute. More importantly, it will be very useful to give an interpretation of each of the factors in terms of conditional probabilities. This paper considers a semantic interpretation of the factors involved in computing marginal probabilities in Bayesian networks. Establishing such a semantic interpretations is indeed interesting and relevant in the case of large Bayesian networks.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, D-Separation, level two Bayesian networks, factorization of computation

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Authors: Florian Pfeffel, Christoph A. Kexel, Peter Kexel, Maria Ratz

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The parallel usage of different media channels has increased recently owing to technological advances. Second Screen describes the use of a second device by television viewers to consume further content which is related to the program they are watching. This study analysed the characteristics of football spectators regarding their media consumption in relation to Second Screen usage while watching a football match on TV. The existing literature on Second Screen usage is still very limited, especially in the context of particular broadcasting settings such as sport or even more specific such as football matches. Therefore, the primary research objective was to reveal first insights into the user behaviour of football spectators regarding Second Screen services. The survey, which was conducted among German football supporters in 2015, revealed some characteristics such as the identification and involvement into the sports which are related to an increased use of Second Screen services. One important finding for football supporters was that at the time of a match they have a lower parallel media usage compared to other TV broadcastings. Nevertheless, if supporters used a second device while watching a match on TV, then they were using specific Second Screen services. This means they searched for more content related information. The findings on the habits and characteristics of people who are using Second Screen services are relevant for future developments in that area as well as for marketing decisions.

Keywords: media consumption, second screen, sport marketing, user behaviour

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Authors: Carolina Senabre Blanes, Sergio Valero Verdú, Emilio Velasco SáNchez

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This research objective is to obtain a percentage of success for each Ministry of Transport (MOT) facilities of each city of the Alicante region from Comunidad Valenciana from Spain by comparing results obtained by using different brake testers. It has been studied which types of brake tester are being used at each city nowadays. Different types of brake testers are used at each city, and the mechanical engineering staffs from the Miguel Hernández University have studied differences between all of them, and have obtained measures from each type. A percentage of probability of success will be given to each MOT station when you try to pass the exam with the same car with same characteristics and the same wheels. In other words, parameters of the vehicle have been controlled to be the same at all tests; therefore, brake measurements variability will be due to the type of testers could be used at the MOT station. A percentage of probability to pass the brake exam at each city will be given by comparing results of tests.

Keywords: brake tester, Mot station, probability to pass the exam, brake tester characteristics

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Authors: Göksel Şimşek

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Celebrities are admired, appreciated and imitated all over the world. As a natural result of this, today many brands choose to work with celebrities for their advertisements. It can be said that the more the brands include celebrities in their marketing communication strategies, the tougher the competition in this field becomes and they allocate a large portion of their marketing budget to this. Brands invest in celebrities who will represent them in order to build the image they want to create. This study aimed to bring under spotlight the perceptions of Turkish customers regarding the use of celebrities in advertisements and marketing communication and try to understand their possible effects on subsequent purchasing decisions. In addition, consumers’ reactions and perceptions were investigated in the context of the product-celebrity match, to what extent the celebrity conforms to the concept of the advertisement and the celebrity-target audience match. In order to achieve this purpose, a quantitative research was conducted as a case study concerning Mavi Jeans (textile company). Information was obtained through survey. The results from this case study are supported by relevant theories concerning the main subject. The most valuable result would be that instead of creating an advertisement around a celebrity in demand at the time, using a celebrity that fits the concept of the advertisement and feeds the concept rather than replaces it, that is celebrity endorsement, will lead to more striking and positive results.

Keywords: celebrity endorsement, product-celebrity match, advertising, social sciences

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Authors: Khatija Bahdur, Duane Dell’Oca

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There is limited information on how altitude impacts performance in a team sport. Most altitude research in football has been conducted at high elevation ( > 2500m), resulting in a chasm of understanding whether low to moderate altitude affects performance. The South African Premier Soccer League (PSL) fixtures entail matches played at altitudes from sea level to 1700m above mean sea level. Despite coaches highlighting the effect of altitude on performance outcomes in matches, further research is needed to establish whether altitude does impact match results. Greater insight into if and how altitude impacts performance in the PSL will assist coaches in deciding if and how to incorporate altitude in their planning. The purpose of this study is to fill in this gap through the use of a retrospective analysis of PSL matches. This quantitative study is based on a descriptive analysis of 181 PSL matches involving one team based at sea-level, taking place over a period of thirteen seasons. The following data were obtained: altitude at which the match was played, match result, the timing of goals, and timing of substitutions. The altitude was classified in 2 ways: inland ( > 500m) and coastal ( < 500m) and also further subdivided into narrower categories ( < 500m, 500-1000m, 1000-1300m; 1300-1500m, > 1500m). The analysis included a 2-sample t-test to determine differences in total goals scored and timing of goals for inland and coastal matches and the chi-square test to identify the significance of altitude on match results. The level of significance was set at the alpha level of 0.05. Match results are significantly affected by the altitude and level of altitude within inland teams most likely to win when playing at inland venues (p=0.000). The proportion of draws was slightly higher at the coast. At altitudes between 500-1000m, 1300-1500m, and 1500-1700m, a greater percentage of matches were won by coastal teams as opposed to draws. The timing of goals varied based on the team’s base altitude and the match elevation. The most significant differences were between 36-40 minutes (p=0.023), 41-45 minutes (p=0.000) and 50-65 minutes (p=0.000). When breaking down inland team’s matches to different altitude categories, greater differences were highlighted. Inland teams scored more goals per minute between 10-20 minute (p=0.009), 41-45 minutes (p=0.003) and 50-65 minutes (p=0.015). The total number of goals scored per match at different altitudes by a) inland teams (p=0.000), b) coastal teams (p=0.006). Coastal teams made significantly more substitutions when playing at altitude (p=0.034), although there were no significant differences when comparing the different altitude categories. The timing of all three changes, however, did vary significantly at the different altitudes. There were no significant differences in timing or number of substitutions for inland teams. Match results and timing of goals are influenced by altitude, with differences between the level of altitude also playing a role. The trends indicate that inland teams win more matches when playing at altitude against coastal teams, and they score more goals just prior to half-time and in the first quarter of the second half.

Keywords: coastal teams, inland teams, timing of goals, results, substitutions

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: Mahboobeh Eghtesad, Reza Mohseni

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We develop methods for detecting a target for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) based radars. As a preliminary step we introduce the target and Gaussian noise models in discrete–time form. Then, resorting to match filter (MF) we derive a detector for two different scenarios: a non-fluctuating target and a Rayleigh fluctuating target. It will be shown that a MF is not suitable for Rayleigh fluctuating targets. In this paper we propose a reduced-complexity method based on fast Fourier transfrom (FFT) for such a situation. The proposed method has better detection performance.

Keywords: constant false alarm rate (CFAR), match filter (MF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), OFDM radars, Rayleigh fluctuating target

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Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

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Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: Mohammad Shoaib Khan, Abdul Sattar Bahalkani

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This research investigates the violence and their impact on SMEs in Sindh. The main objective of current research is to examine the women empowerment through women participation in small and medium enterprises in upper Sindh. The data were collected from 500 respondents from Kandhkot District, by using simple random technique. A structural questionnaire was designed as an instrument for measuring the impact of SMEs business in women empowerment in rural Sindh. It was revealed that the rural women is less confident and their husbands were always given them hard time once they are exposing themselves to outside the boundaries of the house. It was revealed that rural women have a major contribution in social, economic, and political development. It was further revealed that women are getting low wages and due to non-availability of market facility they are paying low wages. The negative impact of husbands’ income and having children at the age of 0-6 years old are also significant. High income of other household member raises the reservation wage of mothers, thus lowers the probability of participation when the objective of working is to help family’s financial need. The impact of childcare on mothers’ labor force participation is significant but not as the theory predicted. The probability of participation in labor force is significantly higher for women who lived in the urban areas where job opportunities are greater compared to the rural.

Keywords: empowerment, violence against women, SMEs, rural

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Authors: Jialin Wu, Zhiwei Lian, Jieyu Tang, Jingyun Shen

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Tornado is a serious and unpredictable natural disaster, which has an important impact on people's production and life. The probability of being hit by tornadoes in China was analyzed considering the principles of tornado formation. Then some suggestions on layout and shapes for newly-built buildings were provided combined with the characteristics of tornado wind fields. Fuzzy clustering and inverse closeness methods were used to evaluate the probability levels of tornado risks in various provinces based on classification and ranking. GIS was adopted to display the results. Finally, wind field single-vortex tornado was studied to discuss the optimized design of rural low-rise houses in Yancheng, Jiangsu as an example. This paper may provide enough data to support building and urban design in some specific regions.

Keywords: tornado probability, computational fluid dynamics, fuzzy mathematics, optimal design

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Authors: Li Minghui, Min Shaorong, Zhang Jun

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This paper aims for studying the operational efficiency of surface warship’s motorized evasion to acoustic homing torpedo. It orderly developed trajectory model, self-guide detection model, vessel evasion model, as well as anti-torpedo error model in three-dimensional space to make up for the deficiency of precious researches analyzing two-dimensionally confrontational models. Then, making use of the Monte Carlo method, it carried out the simulation for the confrontation process of evasion in the environment of MATLAB. At last, it quantitatively analyzed the main factors which determine vessel’s survival probability. The results show that evasion relative bearing and speed will affect vessel’s survival probability significantly. Thus, choosing appropriate evasion relative bearing and speed according to alarming range and alarming relative bearing for torpedo, improving alarming range and positioning accuracy and reducing the response time against torpedo will improve the vessel’s survival probability significantly.

Keywords: acoustic homing torpedo, vessel evasion, monte carlo method, torpedo defense, vessel's survival probability

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Authors: Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen

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Individuals often over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities, however very low probabilities are either significantly over-weighted or neglected. Little is known about factors affecting probability weighting in Prospect Theory related to emotions specific to risk (anticipatory and anticipated emotions), the threshold of concern, as well as personality traits like locus of control. This study provides these insights by examining factors that influence probability weighting in the context of flood insurance demand in an economic experiment. In particular, we focus on determinants of flood probability neglect to provide recommendations for improved risk management. In addition, results obtained using real incentives and no performance-based payments are compared in the experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on data collected from 1’041 Dutch homeowners, we find that: flood probability neglect is related to anticipated regret, worry and the threshold of concern. Moreover, locus of control and regret affect probabilistic pessimism. Nevertheless, we do not observe strong evidence that incentives influence flood probability neglect nor probability weighting. The results show that low, moderate and high flood probabilities are under-weighted, which is related to framing in the flooding context and the degree of realism respondents attach to high probability property damages. We suggest several policies to overcome psychological factors related to under-weighting flood probabilities to improve flood preparations. These include policies that promote better risk communication to enhance insurance decisions for individuals with a high threshold of concern, and education and information provision to change the behaviour of internal locus of control types as well as people who see insurance as an investment. Multi-year flood insurance may also prevent short-sighted behaviour of people who have a tendency to regret paying for insurance. Moreover, bundling low-probability/high-impact risks with more immediate risks may achieve an overall covered risk which is less likely to be judged as falling below thresholds of concern. These measures could aid the development of a flood insurance market in the Netherlands for which we find to be demand.

Keywords: flood insurance demand, prospect theory, risk perceptions, risk preferences

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Aneia Rajiel Busmente, Renato Gunio Jr., Jazin Mautante, Denise Joy Mendoza, Raymond Benedict Tagorio, Gabriel Uy, Natalie Quinn Valenzuela, Ma. Elayza Villa, Francine Yezha Vizcarra, Sofia Madelle Yapan, Eugene Kurt Yboa

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COVID-19’s rapid spread caused a dramatic change in the nation, especially the educational system. The Department of Education was forced to adopt a practical learning platform without neglecting health, a printed modular distance learning. The Philippines' K–12 curriculum includes Statistics and Probability as one of the key courses as it offers students the knowledge to evaluate and comprehend data. Due to student’s difficulty and lack of understanding of the concepts of Statistics and Probability in Normal Distribution. The Self-Learning Module in Statistics and Probability about the Normal Distribution created by the Department of Education has several problems, including many activities, unclear illustrations, and insufficient examples of concepts which enables learners to have a difficulty accomplishing the module. The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of self-learning module on the academic performance of students in the subject Statistics and Probability, it will also explore students’ perception towards the quality of created Self-Learning Module in Statistics and Probability. Despite the availability of Self-Learning Modules in Statistics and Probability in the Philippines, there are still few literatures that discuss its effectiveness in improving the performance of Senior High School students in Statistics and Probability. In this study, a Self-Learning Module on Normal Distribution is evaluated using a quasi-experimental design. STEM students in Grade 11 from National University's Nazareth School will be the study's participants, chosen by purposive sampling. Google Forms will be utilized to find at least 100 STEM students in Grade 11. The research instrument consists of 20-item pre- and post-test to assess participants' knowledge and performance regarding Normal Distribution, and a Likert scale survey to evaluate how the students perceived the self-learning module. Pre-test, post-test, and Likert scale surveys will be utilized to gather data, with Jeffreys' Amazing Statistics Program (JASP) software being used for analysis.

Keywords: self-learning module, academic performance, statistics and probability, normal distribution

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Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

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Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

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Authors: Bouthiba Amina

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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: Anshul Gupta, T. Shankar

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In this paper, we had analyzed the call drop to provide a good quality of service to user. By optimizing it we can increase the coverage area and also the reduction of interference and congestion created in a network. Basically handover is the transfer of call from one cell site to another site during a call. Here we have analyzed the whole network by two method-statistic model and analytic model. In statistic model we have collected all the data of a network during busy hour and normal 24 hours and in analytic model we have the equation through which we have to find the call drop probability. By avoiding unnecessary handovers we can increase the number of calls per hour. The most important parameter is co-efficient of variation on which the whole paper discussed.

Keywords: coefficient of variation, mean, standard deviation, call drop probability, handover

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: Shady Ahmed Emara

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Introductory statement: The temple is characterized by a unique engineering design. This study aimed to explain the means that were used to reach this design. Background of the Study: Temple of Dandara consists of 24 columns with a height of 18m and a diameter of 2m. This paper is about the engineering method for constructing these huge columns. Two experiments were conducted at the temple. The first experiment used AutoCAD to compare the similarity of the columns in terms of dimensions. The second experiment used a laser rangefinder to measure the extent of the match between the heights between the columns. The Major Findings of the Study: (1) The method of constructing the columns was through several divided layers. It is divided into two halves and built opposite each other to maintain the integrity of the columns. (2) The match between the heights of the columns, which reached the error rate between one column and another, is only 1 mm. Concluding Statement: Both experiences will be explained through 2D and 3D.

Keywords: ancient, construction, architecture, building

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Authors: Joshua Bradley, Matthew Buns

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This study aimed to identify the effect of concurrent nutritional supplementation on soccer performance as players ingested either carbohydrate CHO (52 g of Cytocarb Maltodextrin) or a combined carbohydrate and protein PRO (Muscle Milk Pro Series 17g CHO + 50 g PRO liquid) supplement. Twelve male, junior college soccer players (age: 18 ± 6 years, wt. 73.3 ± 8.6 kg) completed three trials wearing global positioning systems (GPS) to measure total running distance and sprinting distance during soccer simulation games. The first match simulation was a baseline match with no supplementation. One hour prior to the second match, simulation players were randomly assigned to one of two supplemental groups CHO or CHO + PRO. A repeated measures ANOVA with a Greenhouse-Geisser correction revealed a statistically significant increase in the total distance run for the CHO supplementation group in comparison to the CHO + PRO group (10.19 ± .200 km vs. 9.77± .194km, p = .035). Although the total running distance was meaningfully influenced by the supplementation, the pattern of response for total sprinting distance was not influenced by supplementation. There was a decline in sprinting distance and total running distance from first half to second half, both for the control (M = -0.01 km, SD = 0.17) and CHO supplementation group (-0.04 km, SD = .19), although these differences were not statistically meaningful. There was a positive correlation between sprinting distance and total distance, which was statistically significant (r = -.514, n = 36, p = .01) In conclusion, supplementation influenced the pattern of activity and demonstrated between-trial differences.

Keywords: GPS, nutrition, simulation, supplementation

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Authors: Sifen Abreham

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Employees are resources in organizations; as such, they need to be trained and developed properly to achieve an organization's goals and expectations. The initial development of the human resource management concept is based on the effective utilization of people to treat them as resources, leading to the realization of business strategies and organizational objectives. The study aimed to assess the effect of training and development practices on employee performance. The researcher used an explanatory research design, which helps to explain, understand, and predict the relationship between variables. To collect the data from the respondents, the study used probability sampling. From the probability, the researcher used stratified random sampling, which can branch off the entire population into homogenous groups. The result was analyzed and presented by using the statistical package for the social science (SPSS) version 26. The major finding of the study was that the training has an impact on employees' job performance to achieve organizational objectives. The district has a policy and procedure for training and development, but it doesn’t apply actively, and it’s not suitable for district-advised reform this policy and procedure and applied actively; the district gives training for the majority of its employees, but most of the time, the training is theoretical the district advised to use practical training method to see positive change, the district gives evaluation after the employees take training and development, but the result is not encouraging the district advised to assess employees skill gap and feel that gap, the district has a budget, but it’s not adequate the district advised to strengthen its financial ground.

Keywords: training, development, employees, performance, policy

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Authors: Serdal Pamuk, Irem Cay

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Our model is based on the theory of reinforced random walks coupled with Michealis-Menten mechanisms which view endothelial cell receptors as the catalysts for transforming both tumor and macrophage derived tumor angiogenesis factor (TAF) into proteolytic enzyme which in turn degrade the basal lamina. The model consists of two main parts. First part has seven differential equations (DE’s) in one space dimension over the capillary, whereas the second part has the same number of DE’s in two space dimensions in the extra cellular matrix (ECM). We connect these two parts via some boundary conditions to move the cells into the ECM in order to initiate capillary formation. But, when does this movement begin? To address this question we estimate the thresholds that activate the transport equations in the capillary. We do this by using steady-state analysis of TAF equation under some assumptions. Once these equations are activated endothelial, pericyte and macrophage cells begin to move into the ECM for the initiation of angiogenesis. We do believe that our results play an important role for the mechanisms of cell migration which are crucial for tumor angiogenesis. Furthermore, we estimate the long time tendency of these three cells, and find that they tend to the transition probability functions as time evolves. We provide our numerical solutions which are in good agreement with our theoretical results.

Keywords: angiogenesis, capillary formation, mathematical analysis, steady-state, transition probability function

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Authors: Margareth E. Bolla, Ludfi Djakfar, Achmad Wicaksono

Abstract:

The increase in the number of motorcycle users in Indonesia is in line with the increase in accidents involving motorcycles. Several previous studies have shown that humans are the biggest factor causing accidents, and the driver's personality factor will affect his behavior on the road. This study was conducted to see how a person's personality traits will affect the probability of having an accident while driving. The Big Five Inventory (BFI) questionnaire and the Honda Riding Trainer (HRT) simulator were used as measuring tools, while the analysis carried out was logistic regression analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis of the respondent's personality based on the BFI show that the majority of drivers have the dominant character of neuroticism (34%), while the smallest group is the driver with the dominant type of openness character (6%). The percentage of motorists who were not involved in an accident was 54%. The results of the logistic regression analysis form a mathematical model as follows Y = -3.852 - 0.288 X1 + 0.596 X2 + 0.429 X3 - 0.386 X4 - 0.094 X5 + 0.436 X6 + 0.162 X7, where the results of hypothesis testing indicate that the variables openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, history of traffic accidents and age at starting driving did not have a significant effect on the probability of a motorcyclist being involved in an accident.

Keywords: accidents, BFI, probability, simulator

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Authors: Thuvanan Borvornvitchotikarn, Werasak Kurutach

Abstract:

Mutual information (MI) is widely used in medical image registration. In the different medical images analysis, it is difficult to choose an optimal bins size number for calculating the probability distributions in MI. As the result, this paper presents a new adaptive bins number selection approach that named a hybrid EMPCA-Scott approach. This work combines an expectation maximization principal component analysis (EMPCA) and the modified Scott’s rule. The proposed approach solves the binning problem from the various intensity values in medical images. Experimental results of this work show the lower registration errors compared to other adaptive binning approaches.

Keywords: mutual information, EMPCA, Scott, probability distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Gajendra Kumar Mourya, Dinesh Bhatia, Akash Handique, Sunita Warjri, Syed Achaab Amir

Abstract:

Nowadays, Medical imaging has become an integral part of modern healthcare. Abdominal CT images are an invaluable mean for abdominal organ investigation and have been widely studied in the recent years. Diagnosis of liver pathologies is one of the major areas of current interests in the field of medical image processing and is still an open problem. To deeply study and diagnose the liver, segmentation of liver is done to identify which part of the liver is mostly affected. Manual segmentation of the liver in CT images is time-consuming and suffers from inter- and intra-observer differences. However, automatic or semi-automatic computer aided segmentation of the Liver is a challenging task due to inter-patient Liver shape and size variability. In this paper, we present a technique for automatic segmenting the liver from CT images using Random Forest Classifier. Random forests or random decision forests are an ensemble learning method for classification that operate by constructing a multitude of decision trees at training time and outputting the class that is the mode of the classes of the individual trees. After comparing with various other techniques, it was found that Random Forest Classifier provide a better segmentation results with respect to accuracy and speed. We have done the validation of our results using various techniques and it shows above 89% accuracy in all the cases.

Keywords: CT images, image validation, random forest, segmentation

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Authors: M. Ranjeeth, S. Anuradha

Abstract:

Spectrum sensing is the main feature of cognitive radio technology. Spectrum sensing gives an idea of detecting the presence of the primary users in a licensed spectrum. In this paper we compare the theoretical results of detection probability of different fading environments like Rayleigh, Rician, Nakagami-m fading channels with the simulation results using energy detection based spectrum sensing. The numerical results are plotted as P_f Vs P_d for different SNR values, fading parameters. It is observed that Nakagami fading channel performance is better than other fading channels by using energy detection in spectrum sensing. A MATLAB simulation test bench has been implemented to know the performance of energy detection in different fading channel environment.

Keywords: spectrum sensing, energy detection, fading channels, probability of detection, probability of false alarm

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

Abstract:

In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

Procedia PDF Downloads 429