Search results for: possibility distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6576

Search results for: possibility distribution

6366 The Extended Skew Gaussian Process for Regression

Authors: M. T. Alodat

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

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6365 Family Business and Gender Diversity as Determinants of Winery Survival: An Application to the Spanish Wine Industry

Authors: Marta Fernández Olmos, Ana Gargallo Castel, Alice Salami

Abstract:

The literature has shown the importance of studying the issue of business survival in highly competitive environments. In particular, the wine sector has certain characteristics that make it interesting to study factors that increase the possibility of wineries' survival, such as individual productivity, winery size, age, innovation efforts or the maturity of the industry itself, among others. Due to the importance of these factors, this research aims to analyze whether the possibility of wineries' survival increases if they are family businesses or if there is gender diversity in senior management. To this end, a nationwide survey was carried out. The sample was made up of wineries from all the Spanish appellations of origin, using this sample to analyze the survival of the diverse types of wineries according to the factors to be studied. The main results indicate that family wineries survive longer, suggesting that this may be due to the fact that the main objective of family wineries is the continuity of the business in the long term. Regarding gender diversity, wineries that have a female presence in top roles in management, adding gender diversity, survive more than those with a predominantly male presence. Based on these results, it is advisable to consider the importance of family businesses, especially in this type of sector. In addition, support should be provided for the inclusion of a female labor force to improve the possibility of survival.

Keywords: gender, family business, wine industry, survival

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6364 Formulation of a Stress Management Program for Human Error Prevention in Nuclear Power Plants

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

Abstract:

As for any nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Among lots factors, stress has been reported to have significant influence on human performance. Stress level of a person may fluctuate over time. To handle the possibility over time, robust stress management program is required, especially in nuclear power plants. Therefore, to overcome the possibility of human errors, this study aimed to develop a stress management program as a part of Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) Program for the workers in nuclear power plants. The meaning of FFD might be somewhat different by research objectives, appropriate definition of FFD was accomplished in this study with special reference to human error prevention, and diverse stress factors were elicited for management of human error susceptibility. In addition, with consideration of conventional FFD management programs, appropriate tests and interventions were introduced over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, job rotation, and disemployment as well as Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP). The results showed that most tools mainly concentrated their weights on common organizational factors such as Demands, Supports, and Relationships in sequence, which were referred as major stress factors.

Keywords: human error, accident prevention, work performance, stress, fatigue

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6363 A Methodology for Characterising the Tail Behaviour of a Distribution

Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

Abstract:

Following a review of various approaches that are utilized for classifying the tail behavior of a distribution, an easily implementable methodology that relies on an arctangent transformation is presented. The classification criterion is actually based on the difference between two specific quantiles of the transformed distribution. The resulting categories enable one to classify distributional tails as distinctly short, short, nearly medium, medium, extended medium and somewhat long, providing that at least two moments exist. Distributions possessing a single moment are said to be long tailed while those failing to have any finite moments are classified as having an extremely long tail. Several illustrative examples will be presented.

Keywords: arctangent transformation, tail classification, heavy-tailed distributions, distributional moments

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6362 Hierarchical Control Structure to Control the Power Distribution System Components in Building Systems

Authors: Hamed Sarbazy, Zohre Gholipour Haftkhani, Ali Safari, Pejman Hosseiniun

Abstract:

Scientific and industrial progress in the past two decades has resulted in energy distribution systems based on power electronics, as an enabling technology in various industries and building management systems can be considered. Grading and standardization module power electronics systems and its use in a distributed control system, a strategy for overcoming the limitations of using this system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate strategies for scheduling and control structure of standard modules is a power electronic systems. This paper introduces the classical control methods and disadvantages of these methods will be discussed, The hierarchical control as a mechanism for distributed control structure of the classification module explains. The different levels of control and communication between these levels are fully introduced. Also continue to standardize software distribution system control structure is discussed. Finally, as an example, the control structure will be presented in a DC distribution system.

Keywords: application management, hardware management, power electronics, building blocks

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6361 Influence of Lecithin from Different Sources on Crystallization Properties of Non-Trans Fat

Authors: Ivana Lončarević, Biljana Pajin, Radovan Omorjan, Aleksandra Torbica, Danica Zarić, Jovana Maksimović

Abstract:

Soybean seeds are the main source of lecithin in confectionery industry in Serbia and elsewhere. The extensive production of sunflower and rapeseed oil opens the possibility of using lecithin from these sources, as an alternative. Also, the development of functional foods dictates the use of edible fats with no undesirable trans fatty acids, obtained by fractionation and transesterification instead of common hydrogenation process. Crystallization properties of nontrans vegetable fat with the addition of soybean, sunflower and rapeseed lecithin were investigated in this paper. NMR technique was used for measuring the solid fat content (SFC) of fats at different temperatures, as well as for crystallization rate under static conditions. Also, the possibility of applying Gompertz function to define kinetics of crystallization was investigated.

Keywords: non-trans fat, lecithin, fatty acids, SFC

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6360 Defects Analysis, Components Distribution, and Properties Simulation in the Fuel Cells and Batteries by 2D and 3D Characterization Techniques

Authors: Amir Peyman Soleymani, Jasna Jankovic

Abstract:

The augmented demand of the clean and renewable energy has necessitated the fuel cell and battery industries to produce more efficient devices at the lower prices, which can be achieved through the improvement of the electrode. Microstructural characterization, as one of the main materials development tools, plays a pivotal role in the production of better clean energy devices. In this study, methods for characterization and studying of the defects and components distribution were performed on the polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) and Li-ion battery (LIB) electrodes in 2D and 3D. The particles distribution, porosity, mechanical defects, and component distribution were studied by Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), SEM-Focused Ion Beam (SEM-FIB), and Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope equipped with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (STEM-EDS). The 3D results obtained from X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) revealed the pathways for electron and ion conductivity and defects progression maps. Computer-aided methods (Avizo) were employed to simulate the properties and performance of the microstructure in the electrodes. The suggestions were provided to improve the performance of PEMFCs and LIBs by adjusting the microstructure and the distribution of the components in the electrodes.

Keywords: PEM fuel cells, Li-ion batteries, 2D and 3D imaging, materials characterizations

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6359 Automatic Censoring in K-Distribution for Multiple Targets Situations

Authors: Naime Boudemagh, Zoheir Hammoudi

Abstract:

The parameters estimation of the K-distribution is an essential part in radar detection. In fact, presence of interfering targets in reference cells causes a decrease in detection performances. In such situation, the estimate of the shape and the scale parameters are far from the actual values. In the order to avoid interfering targets, we propose an Automatic Censoring (AC) algorithm of radar interfering targets in K-distribution. The censoring technique used in this work offers a good discrimination between homogeneous and non-homogeneous environments. The homogeneous population is then used to estimate the unknown parameters by the classical Method of Moment (MOM). The AC algorithm does not need any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require both the number and the position of interfering targets. The accuracy of the estimation parameters obtained by this algorithm are validated and compared to various actual values of the shape parameter, using Monte Carlo simulations, this latter show that the probability of censing in multiple target situations are in good agreement.

Keywords: parameters estimation, method of moments, automatic censoring, K distribution

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6358 Teaching Contemporary Power Distribution and Industrial Networks in Higher Education Vocational Studies

Authors: Rade M. Ciric

Abstract:

The paper shows the development and implementation of the syllabus of the subject 'Distribution and Industrial Networks', attended by the vocational specialist Year 4 students of the Electric Power Engineering study programme at the Higher Education Technical School of Vocational Studies in Novi Sad. The aim of the subject is to equip students with the knowledge necessary for planning, exploitation and management of distributive and industrial electric power networks in an open electricity market environment. The results of the evaluation of educational outcomes on the subject are presented and discussed.

Keywords: engineering education, power distribution network, syllabus implementation, outcome evaluation

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6357 A Comprehensive Evaluation of Supervised Machine Learning for the Phase Identification Problem

Authors: Brandon Foggo, Nanpeng Yu

Abstract:

Power distribution circuits undergo frequent network topology changes that are often left undocumented. As a result, the documentation of a circuit’s connectivity becomes inaccurate with time. The lack of reliable circuit connectivity information is one of the biggest obstacles to model, monitor, and control modern distribution systems. To enhance the reliability and efficiency of electric power distribution systems, the circuit’s connectivity information must be updated periodically. This paper focuses on one critical component of a distribution circuit’s topology - the secondary transformer to phase association. This topology component describes the set of phase lines that feed power to a given secondary transformer (and therefore a given group of power consumers). Finding the documentation of this component is call Phase Identification, and is typically performed with physical measurements. These measurements can take time lengths on the order of several months, but with supervised learning, the time length can be reduced significantly. This paper compares several such methods applied to Phase Identification for a large range of real distribution circuits, describes a method of training data selection, describes preprocessing steps unique to the Phase Identification problem, and ultimately describes a method which obtains high accuracy (> 96% in most cases, > 92% in the worst case) using only 5% of the measurements typically used for Phase Identification.

Keywords: distribution network, machine learning, network topology, phase identification, smart grid

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6356 Monte Carlo Methods and Statistical Inference of Multitype Branching Processes

Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

Abstract:

A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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6355 Influence of Optical Fluence Distribution on Photoacoustic Imaging

Authors: Mohamed K. Metwally, Sherif H. El-Gohary, Kyung Min Byun, Seung Moo Han, Soo Yeol Lee, Min Hyoung Cho, Gon Khang, Jinsung Cho, Tae-Seong Kim

Abstract:

Photoacoustic imaging (PAI) is a non-invasive and non-ionizing imaging modality that combines the absorption contrast of light with ultrasound resolution. Laser is used to deposit optical energy into a target (i.e., optical fluence). Consequently, the target temperature rises, and then thermal expansion occurs that leads to generating a PA signal. In general, most image reconstruction algorithms for PAI assume uniform fluence within an imaging object. However, it is known that optical fluence distribution within the object is non-uniform. This could affect the reconstruction of PA images. In this study, we have investigated the influence of optical fluence distribution on PA back-propagation imaging using finite element method. The uniform fluence was simulated as a triangular waveform within the object of interest. The non-uniform fluence distribution was estimated by solving light propagation within a tissue model via Monte Carlo method. The results show that the PA signal in the case of non-uniform fluence is wider than the uniform case by 23%. The frequency spectrum of the PA signal due to the non-uniform fluence has missed some high frequency components in comparison to the uniform case. Consequently, the reconstructed image with the non-uniform fluence exhibits a strong smoothing effect.

Keywords: finite element method, fluence distribution, Monte Carlo method, photoacoustic imaging

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6354 Bayesian Analysis of Change Point Problems Using Conditionally Specified Priors

Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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6353 The Pressure Distribution on the Rectangular and Trapezoidal Storage Tanks' Perimeters Due to Liquid Sloshing Impact

Authors: Hassan Saghi, Gholam Reza Askarzadeh Garmroud, Seyyed Ali Reza Emamian

Abstract:

Sloshing phenomenon is a complicated free surface flow problem that increases the dynamic pressure on the sidewalls and the bottom of the storage tanks. When the storage tanks are partially filled, it is essential to be able to evaluate the fluid dynamic loads on the tank’s perimeter. In this paper, a numerical code was developed to determine the pressure distribution on the rectangular and trapezoidal storage tanks’ perimeters due to liquid sloshing impact. Assuming the fluid to be inviscid, the Laplace equation and the nonlinear free surface boundary conditions are solved using coupled BEM-FEM. The code performance for sloshing modeling is validated against available data. Finally, this code is used for partially filled rectangular and trapezoidal storage tanks and the pressure distribution on the tanks’ perimeters due to liquid sloshing impact is estimated. The results show that the maximum pressure on the perimeter of the rectangular and trapezoidal storage tanks was decreased along the sidewalls from the top to the bottom. Furthermore, the period of the pressure distribution is different for different points on the tank’s perimeter and it is bigger in the trapezoidal tanks compared to the rectangular ones.

Keywords: pressure distribution, liquid sloshing impact, sway motion, trapezoidal storage tank, coupled BEM-FEM

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6352 A Hyperexponential Approximation to Finite-Time and Infinite-Time Ruin Probabilities of Compound Poisson Processes

Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

Abstract:

This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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6351 Advanced Model for Calculation of the Neutral Axis Shifting and the Wall Thickness Distribution in Rotary Draw Bending Processes

Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

Abstract:

Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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6350 Reconstruction of a Genome-Scale Metabolic Model to Simulate Uncoupled Growth of Zymomonas mobilis

Authors: Maryam Saeidi, Ehsan Motamedian, Seyed Abbas Shojaosadati

Abstract:

Zymomonas mobilis is known as an example of the uncoupled growth phenomenon. This microorganism also has a unique metabolism that degrades glucose by the Entner–Doudoroff (ED) pathway. In this paper, a genome-scale metabolic model including 434 genes, 757 reactions and 691 metabolites was reconstructed to simulate uncoupled growth and study its effect on flux distribution in the central metabolism. The model properly predicted that ATPase was activated in experimental growth yields of Z. mobilis. Flux distribution obtained from model indicates that the major carbon flux passed through ED pathway that resulted in the production of ethanol. Small amounts of carbon source were entered into pentose phosphate pathway and TCA cycle to produce biomass precursors. Predicted flux distribution was in good agreement with experimental data. The model results also indicated that Z. mobilis metabolism is able to produce biomass with maximum growth yield of 123.7 g (mol glucose)-1 if ATP synthase is coupled with growth and produces 82 mmol ATP gDCW-1h-1. Coupling the growth and energy reduced ethanol secretion and changed the flux distribution to produce biomass precursors.

Keywords: genome-scale metabolic model, Zymomonas mobilis, uncoupled growth, flux distribution, ATP dissipation

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6349 Temperature Gradient In Weld Zones During Friction Stir Process Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah

Abstract:

Finite element approach have been used via three-dimensional models by using Altair Hyper Work, a commercially available software, to describe heat gradients along the welding zones (axially and coronaly) in Friction Stir Welding (FSW). Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in AA 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and work piece is used in the analysis. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the work piece.

Keywords: Frictions Stir Welding (FSW), temperature distribution, Finite Element Method (FEM), altair hyperwork

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6348 Spatial Distribution of Certified Mental Disabilities in China

Authors: Jiayue Yang

Abstract:

Based on an analysis of China's database of certified disabled persons in 2021, this study reveals several key findings. Firstly, the proportion of certified mentally disabled persons among China's certified disabled population (Certification rate 1) shows a decreasing distribution from the East to the West and from the South to the North. Secondly, the spatial distribution of the number of mentally disabled persons per 1,000 people holding certificates (certification rate 2) shows a relatively scattered pattern, with significant variations observed between cities in the eastern region. However, on an overall scale, a south-north gradient can still be observed, with higher rates in the North and lower rates in the west, while the central region demonstrates higher rates compared to the western region. The variation in the rate of mentally handicapped certificates among regions is influenced not only by traditional culture and welfare level but also exhibits a certain correlation with the level of economic development.

Keywords: certified disabled persons, mentally disabled persons, spatial distribution, China

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6347 New Method for Determining the Distribution of Birefringence and Linear Dichroism in Polymer Materials Based on Polarization-Holographic Grating

Authors: Barbara Kilosanidze, George Kakauridze, Levan Nadareishvili, Yuri Mshvenieradze

Abstract:

A new method for determining the distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism in optical polymer materials is presented. The method is based on the use of polarization-holographic diffraction grating that forms an orthogonal circular basis in the process of diffraction of probing laser beam on the grating. The intensities ratio of the orders of diffraction on this grating enables the value of birefringence and linear dichroism in the sample to be determined. The distribution of birefringence in the sample is determined by scanning with a circularly polarized beam with a wavelength far from the absorption band of the material. If the scanning is carried out by probing beam with the wavelength near to a maximum of the absorption band of the chromophore then the distribution of linear dichroism can be determined. An appropriate theoretical model of this method is presented. A laboratory setup was created for the proposed method. An optical scheme of the laboratory setup is presented. The results of measurement in polymer films with two-dimensional gradient distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism are discussed.

Keywords: birefringence, linear dichroism, graded oriented polymers, optical polymers, optical anisotropy, polarization-holographic grating

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6346 Study on Concentration and Temperature Measurement with 760 nm Diode Laser in Combustion System Using Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy

Authors: Miyeon Yoo, Sewon Kim, Changyeop Lee

Abstract:

It is important to measure the internal temperature or temperature distribution precisely in combustion system to increase energy efficiency and reduce the pollutants. Especially in case of large combustion systems such as power plant boiler and reheating furnace of steel making process, it is very difficult to measure those physical properties in detail. Tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy measurement and analysis can be attractive method to overcome the difficulty. In this paper, TDLAS methods are used to measure the oxygen concentration and temperature distribution in various experimental conditions.

Keywords: tunable diode laser absorption Spectroscopy, temperature distribution, gas concentration

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6345 Analysis of Exponential Distribution under Step Stress Partially Accelerated Life Testing Plan Using Adaptive Type-I Hybrid Progressive Censoring Schemes with Competing Risks Data

Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

Abstract:

In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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6344 Distribution-Free Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Charts for Monitoring Process Variability

Authors: Chen-Fang Tsai, Shin-Li Lu

Abstract:

Distribution-free control chart is an oncoming area from the statistical process control charts in recent years. Some researchers have developed various nonparametric control charts and investigated the detection capability of these charts. The major advantage of nonparametric control charts is that the underlying process is not specifically considered the assumption of normality or any parametric distribution. In this paper, two nonparametric exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts based on nonparametric tests, namely NE-S and NE-M control charts, are proposed for monitoring process variability. Generally, weighted moving average (GWMA) control charts are extended by utilizing design and adjustment parameters for monitoring the changes in the process variability, namely NG-S and NG-M control charts. Statistical performance is also investigated on NG-S and NG-M control charts with run rules. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed to show the effects of design parameters under the nonparametric NG-S and NG-M control charts.

Keywords: Distribution-free control chart, EWMA control charts, GWMA control charts

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6343 A New Method Presentation for Locating Fault in Power Distribution Feeders Considering DG

Authors: Rahman Dashti, Ehsan Gord

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved impedance based fault location method is proposed. In this method, online fault locating is performed using voltage and current information at the beginning of the feeder. Determining precise fault location in a short time increases reliability and efficiency of the system. The proposed method utilizes information about main component of voltage and current at the beginning of the feeder and distributed generation unit (DGU) in order to precisely locate different faults in acceptable time. To evaluate precision and accuracy of the proposed method, a 13-node is simulated and tested using MATLAB.

Keywords: distribution network, fault section determination, distributed generation units, distribution protection equipment

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6342 Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals in Khark Island-Iran Using Geographic Information System

Authors: Abbas Hani, Maryam Jassasizadeh

Abstract:

The concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Ni were determined from 40 soil samples collected in surface soils of Khark Island. Geostatistic methods and GIS were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that level of mentioned heavy metal was lower than the standard level. Then the data obtained from the soil analyzing were studied for the purposes of normal distribution. The best way of interior finding for cadmium and nickel was ordinary kriging and the best way of interpolation of lead was inverse distance weighted. The result of this study help us to understand heavy metals distribution and make decision for remediation of soil pollution.

Keywords: geostatistics, ordinary kriging, heavy metals, GIS, Khark

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6341 Long-Term Resilience Performance Assessment of Dual and Singular Water Distribution Infrastructures Using a Complex Systems Approach

Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

Abstract:

Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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6340 The Fit of the Partial Pair Distribution Functions of BaMnFeF7 Fluoride Glass Using the Buckingham Potential by the Hybrid RMC Simulation

Authors: Sidi Mohamed Mesli, Mohamed Habchi, Arslane Boudghene Stambouli, Rafik Benallal

Abstract:

The BaMnMF7 (M=Fe,V, transition metal fluoride glass, assuming isomorphous replacement) have been structurally studied through the simultaneous simulation of their neutron diffraction patterns by reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) and by the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC) analysis. This last is applied to remedy the problem of the artificial satellite peaks that appear in the partial pair distribution functions (PDFs) by the RMC simulation. The HRMC simulation is an extension of the RMC algorithm, which introduces an energy penalty term (potential) in acceptance criteria. The idea of this work is to apply the Buckingham potential at the title glass by ignoring the van der Waals terms, in order to make a fit of the partial pair distribution functions and give the most possible realistic features. When displaying the partial PDFs, we suggest that the Buckingham potential is useful to describe average correlations especially in similar interactions.

Keywords: fluoride glasses, RMC simulation, hybrid RMC simulation, Buckingham potential, partial pair distribution functions

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6339 Study on the Layout of 15-Minute Community-Life Circle in the State of “Community Segregation” Based on Poi: Shengwei Community and Other Two Communities in Chongqing

Authors: Siyuan Cai

Abstract:

This paper takes community segregation during major infectious diseases as the background, based on the physiological needs and safety needs of citizens during home segregation, and based on the selection of convenient facilities and medical facilities as the main research objects. Based on the POI data of public facilities in Chongqing, the spatial distribution characteristics of the convenience and medical facilities in the 15-minute living circle centered on three neighborhoods in Shapingba, namely Shengwei Community, Anju Commmunity and Fengtian Garden Community, were explored by means of GIS spatial analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution of convenience and medical facilities in this area has significant clustering characteristics, with a point-like distribution pattern of "dense in the west and sparse in the east", and a grouped and multi-polar spatial structure. The spatial structure is multi-polar and has an obvious tendency to the intersections and residential areas with dense pedestrian flow. This study provides a preliminary exploration of the distribution of medical and convenience facilities within the 15-minute living circle of a segregated community, which makes up for the lack of spatial research in this area.

Keywords: ArcGIS, community segregation, convenient facilities; distribution pattern, medical facilities, POI, 15-minute community life circle

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6338 Failure Mechanism in Fixed-Ended Reinforced Concrete Deep Beams under Cyclic Load

Authors: A. Aarabzadeh, R. Hizaji

Abstract:

Reinforced Concrete (RC) deep beams are a special type of beams due to their geometry, boundary conditions, and behavior compared to ordinary shallow beams. For example, assumption of a linear strain-stress distribution in the cross section is not valid. Little study has been dedicated to fixed-end RC deep beams. Also, most experimental studies are carried out on simply supported deep beams. Regarding recent tendency for application of deep beams, possibility of using fixed-ended deep beams has been widely increased in structures. Therefore, it seems necessary to investigate the aforementioned structural element in more details. In addition to experimental investigation of a concrete deep beam under cyclic load, different failure mechanisms of fixed-ended deep beams under this type of loading have been evaluated in the present study. The results show that failure mechanisms of deep beams under cyclic loads are quite different from monotonic loads.

Keywords: deep beam, cyclic load, reinforced concrete, fixed-ended

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6337 Application All Digits Number Benford Law in Financial Statement

Authors: Teguh Sugiarto

Abstract:

Background: The research aims to explore if there is fraud in a financial statement, use the Act stated that Benford's distribution all digits must compare the number will follow the trend of lower number. Research methods: This research uses all the analysis number being in Benford's law. After receiving the results of the analysis of all the digits, the author makes a distinction between implementation using the scale above and below 5%, the rate of occurrence of difference. With the number which have differences in the range of 5%, then can do the follow-up and the detection of the onset of fraud against the financial statements. The findings: From the research that has been done can be drawn the conclusion that the average of all numbers appear in the financial statements, and compare the rates of occurrence of numbers according to the characteristics of Benford's law. About the existence of errors and fraud in the financial statements of PT medco Energy Tbk did not occur. Conclusions: The study concludes that Benford's law can serve as indicator tool in detecting the possibility of in financial statements to case studies of PT Medco Energy Tbk for the fiscal year 2000-2010.

Keywords: Benford law, first digits, all digits number Benford law, financial statement

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