Search results for: pest forecasting

Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

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Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Sabraoui Abdelhadi, El Bouhssini Mustapha, Lhaloui Saadia, El Fakhouri Karim, Bouchelta Aziz

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The surveys carried out in 2014, 2015 in the regions of Abda- Doukala, Chaouia- Ouardigha, Zemour- Zair and Fes- Sais have confirmed that the leaf miner was the main insect pest attacking chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) in Morocco. The grain yield losses caused by this pest could be more than 20% for winter planting and more than 42% for spring-sown crop. To reduce the chickpea leaf miner infestations, four essential oils, as biopesticide alternatives, were tested for their insecticidal effect on L. ciccerina, adults and larvae under laboratory conditions. In addition, we assessed the efficacy of these essential oils with and without adjuvant against this pest in comparison to three insecticides under field conditions. Mentha pulegium, with a dose of 33 µl/l of air caused 100% mortality on adults and larvae, after three hours and six hours of exposure, respectively. Eucalyptus showed 100% mortality on adults and larvae, with doses of 33 and 83 µl/l, after six and three hours of exposure, respectively. In the field conditions M. pulegium and E. globulus with adjuvant showed promising results compared with Abamectin, Azadirachtin and Spinetoram respectively. Essential oils could be used as one of the IPM components for the control of chickpea leaf miner.

Keywords: Liriomyza cicerina, chickpea, essential oils, insecticidal activity, Morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Reza Sadeghi

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Carbon dioxide treatment is one of the new methods for storage pest control. It can be used to replace chemical approaches. In the present study, the mortalities of Oryzaephilus mercator as the key pest of stored products, especially nuts, were studied after being exposed to different CO2 pressures (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 bar) within 24 hours. The mortality percentages of O. mercator increased with an increase in CO2 pressure. The results obtained from experiments on the qualitative characteristics of the studied dates through the sensory test revealed that CO2 pressures did not affect their aroma, color, crispness, firmness, and overall acceptance. Therefore, it could be concluded that the atmospheric CO2 gas provided a cost-effective and environmentally friendly method for controlling the insect pests of pumpkin seed, besides preserving their sensory and quality properties.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, control, seed, qualitative characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Sang C. Park

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Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: performance forecasting, simulation, virtual manned assembly line, WEMax

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Md. Nazmul Haque, Mahinur Rahman

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The objective of the research is to determine the quantity of household waste generated and forecast the future condition of Ward No 24 (Nirala). For performing that, three core issues are focused: (i) the capacity and service area of the dumping stations; (ii) the present waste generation amount per capita per day; (iii) the responsibility of the local authority in the household waste collection. This research relied on field survey-based data collection from all stakeholders and GIS-based secondary analysis of waste collection points and their coverage. However, these studies are mostly based on the inherent forecasting approaches, cannot predict the amount of waste correctly. The findings of this study suggest that Nirala is a formal residential area introducing a better approach to the waste collection - self-controlled and collection system. Here, a forecasting model proposed for waste generation as Y = -2250387 + 1146.1 * X, where X = year.

Keywords: eco-friendly environment, household waste, linear regression, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Priyanka Jain, Meera Srivastava

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Among important insect pests of stored grains, the pulse beetle Callosobruchus chinensis Linn. (Coleoptera: Bruchidae) is one such pest causing considerable damage to stored pulses. An effort was made to screen plant Tephrosia purpurea (Family: Fabaceae) for its efficacy against the said pest. The pulse beetle C. chinensis was raised on green gram Vigna radiata in incubators maintained at 28 ± 2°C and 70% RH. Different formulations using plant parts (root, stem, leaf and fruit) were employed in the form of aqueous suspension, aqueous extract and ether extract and the treatments were made using different dose concentrations, namely 1%, 2.5%, 5% and 10%, besides normal and control. Specific number of adult insects were released in muslin cloth covered beakers containing weighed green gram grains and treated with different dose concentrations (w/v). Observations for the number of eggs laid by the pest insect C. chinensis was recorded after three days of treatment and it was observed that in general all the treatments of the plant resulted in significant decrease in the eggs laid (no/pair) by the insect, suggesting that the selected plant has a potential to be used against C. chinensis.

Keywords: Callosobruchus chinensis, egg laying, Tephrosia purpurea, Fabaceae, plant formulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Sitarrine Thongpussawal, Dasarath Jayasuriya, Thanaroj Woraratprasert, Sakawtree Prajamwong

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Thailand grapples with recurrent floods causing substantial repercussions on its economy, society, and environment. In 2021, the economic toll of these floods amounted to an estimated 53,282 million baht, primarily impacting the agricultural sector. The existing flood monitoring system in Thailand suffers from inaccuracies and insufficient information, resulting in delayed warnings and ineffective communication to the public. The Office of the National Water Resources (OWNR) is tasked with developing and integrating data and information systems for efficient water resources management, yet faces challenges in monitoring accuracy, forecasting, and timely warnings. This study endeavors to evaluate the viability of enhancing Thailand's Flood Forecasting and Warning (FFW) systems. Additionally, it aims to formulate a comprehensive work package grounded in international best practices to enhance the country's FFW systems. Employing qualitative research methodologies, the study conducted in-depth interviews and focus groups with pertinent agencies. Data analysis involved techniques like note-taking and document analysis. The study substantiates the feasibility of developing and enhancing FFW systems in Thailand. Implementation of international best practices can augment the precision of flood forecasting and warning systems, empowering local agencies and residents in high-risk areas to prepare proactively, thereby minimizing the adverse impact of floods on lives and property. This research underscores that Thailand can feasibly advance its FFW systems by adopting international best practices, enhancing accuracy, and improving preparedness. Consequently, the study enriches the theoretical understanding of flood forecasting and warning systems and furnishes valuable recommendations for their enhancement in Thailand.

Keywords: flooding, forecasting, warning, monitoring, communication, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Leonardo Parra, Daniel Martínez, Jorge Pizarro, Fernando Ortega, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Andrés Quiroz

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Control of Dalaca pallens or blackworms, one of the most important hypogeous pest in grassland in southern Chile, is based on the use of broad-spectrum insecticides such as organophosphates and pyrethroids. However, the rapid development of insecticide resistance in field populations of this insect and public concern over the environmental impact of these insecticides has resulted in the search for other control methods. Specifically, the use of endophyte fungi for controlling pest has emerged as an interesting and promising strategy. Endophytes from ryegrass (Lolium perenne), establish a biotrophic relationship with the host, defined as mutualistic symbiosis. The plant-fungi association produces alkaloids where peramine is the main toxic substance against Listronotus bonariensis, the most important epigean pest of ryegrass. Nevertheless, the effect of peramina on others pest insects, such as D. pallens, to our knowledge has not been studied, and also its possible metabolization in the body of the larvae. Therefore, we addressed the following research question: Do larvae of D. pallens store peramine after consumption of ryegrass endophyte infected (E+)? For this, specimens of blackworms were fed with ryegrass plant of seven experimental lines and one commercial cultivar endophyte free (E-) sown at the Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias Carillanca (Vilcún, Chile). Once the feeding period was over, ten larvae of each treatment were examined. Individuals were dissected, and their gut was removed to exclude any influence of remaining material. The rest of the larva's body was dried at 60°C by 24-48 h and ground into a fine powder using a mortar. 25 mg of dry powder was transferred to a microcentrifuge tube and extracted in 1 mL of a mixture of methanol:water:formic acid. Then, the samples were centrifuged at 16,000 rpm for 3 min, and the supernatant was colected and injected in the liquid chromatography of high resolution (HPLC). The results confirmed the presence of peramine in the larva's body of D. pallens. The insects that fed the experimental lines LQE-2 and LQE-6 were those where peramine was present in high proportion (0.205 and 0.199 ppm, respectively); while LQE-7 and LQE-3 obtained the lowest concentrations of the alkaloid (0.047 and 0.053 ppm, respectively). Peramine was not detected in the insects when the control cultivar Jumbo (E-) was tested. These results evidenced the storage and metabolism of peramine during consumption of the larvae. However, the effect of this alkaloid present in 'future ryegrass cultivars' (LQE-2 and LQE-6) on the performance and survival of blackworms must be studied and confirmed experimentally.

Keywords: blackworms, HPLC, alkaloid, pest

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Authors: Yuxuan Liu, Jianli Hao, Ruoyu Zhang, Lin Lin, Nelsen Andreco Muljadi, Yu Song, Guobin Gong

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With the increased municipal waste of China, household waste management (HWM) has become a key issue for sustainable development. In this study, an online survey questionnaire was conducted with the aim of assessing the current attitudes and behaviors of the households in China towards waste separationand recycling practices. Related influential factors are also determined within the context of the theory of planned behavior and PEST analysis. The survey received a total of 551 valid respondents. Results showed that the sample has an overall positive attitudes and behavior toward participating in HWM, but only 16.3% of themregularly segregate their waste. Society and policy are also found to be the two most impactful factors.

Keywords: householde waste management, theory of planned behavior, attitude, behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Fatimah M. Alshehrei

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For many years, synthetic pesticides have been used to kill pests; due to their toxicity and pollution, they are now a risk to human and environmental health. Lately, biopesticides have emerged as possible substitutes for petrochemical pesticides. The sources of biopesticides are widely accessible, easily biodegradable, have a variety of modes of action, are less expensive, and have little toxicity toward humans and other creatures that aren't the intended targets. Plants, bacteria, and insects are used to create biopesticides, they used in controlling diseases in crops. Microbial pesticides are produced from different microorganisms such as Trichoderma, Bacillus, Pseudomonas, and Beauveria. Also, botanical pesticides have already been commercialized; they are extracted from neem, pyrethrum, azadirachtin, etc. This paper describes biopesticide categories, their sources, mode of action, advantages and disadvantages, and their role in sustainable agriculture.

Keywords: biopesticides categories, formulation, mode of action, pest control

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Authors: Reza Sadeghi, Maryam Nazarahari

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Considering the effectiveness of plant pesticides in pest control, this group of pesticides can provide an efficient way to reduce the damage caused by pests in agriculture and maintain environmental health. Plant pesticides allow farmers to cultivate their crops by lowering the use of chemical pesticides and help improve the quality of agricultural products. In this research, various plant compounds were extracted from two different sources, thyme and eucalyptus, by using n-hexane solvent and investigated to control cotton bollworm in laboratory conditions. The mortality rates of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) caused by different concentrations of hexanic extract formulations were evaluated. The results showed that the varied concentrations of the hexanic extract formulations of thyme and eucalyptus had significant effects on the mortality rates of cotton bollworm larvae during a 24-h exposure period. The hexanic extract of thyme as a plant pesticide can be an effective alternative in agriculture and plant pest control. The use of pesticides in agriculture can help the environment and reduce the problems related to chemical toxins. Also, this research revealed that the types and compounds of plant pesticides can be effective in pest control and help to develop more efficient agricultural strategies.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, thyme, eucalyptus, extract formulation, toxicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Nazakat Ismailzada, Carol Jones

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Tomato drilling moth Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is the main pest of tomato plants in many countries. The larvae of tomato leaves, the stems inside, in the end buds, they opened the gallery in green and ripe fruit. In this way the harmful products can be fed with all parts of the tomato plant can cause damage to 80-100%. Pest harms all above ground parts of the tomato plant. After the seedlings are planted in areas and during blossoming holder traps with tomato moth’s rubber capsule inside should be placed in the area by using five-tomato moth’s feremon per ha. Then there should be carried out observations in the fields in every three days regularly. During the researches, it was showed that in field condition Carogen 20 SC besides high-level biological efficiency also has low ecological load for environment, and should be used against tomato moth in farms. Therefore it was showed that in field condition Carogen 20 SC besides high-level biological efficiency also has low ecological load for environment, and should be used against tomato moth in farms with insecticide expenditure norm 320 qr\ha. In farms should be used plant rotation, plant fields should be plowed on the 25-30 sm depth, before sowing seeds should be proceeded by insecticides. As element of integrated plant protection activities, should be used pheromones trap. In tomato plant fields as an insecticide should be used AGROSAN 240 SC and Carogen 20 SP.

Keywords: lepidoptera, Tuta absoluta, chemical control, integrated pest management

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 539

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

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While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: balance, business survey, confidence indicators, industrial production, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Pavitra Sharma, A. K. Singh

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The establishment of pest population in a habitat is greatly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature, photoperiod, and humidity. These factors influence the biology and behavior of insects and their pest status. Nezara viridula (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), commonly known as southern green stink bug, is economically important pest of legumes. Both nymphs and adult suck the sap from different part of the plant and deteriorate the standing crop. Present study involves effects of temperature on incubation, hatching success and nymphal duration of N. viridula. The results indicated that the development of eggs requires optimal temperature range. Temperature conditions above and below the optimum range affect the incubation period as well as the percent hatchability of eggs. At 19°C, the egg incubation period was longest whereas it was shortest at 27°C. The change in temperature from the optimum condition also affected the hatchability of eggs in N. viridula. Decrease in the hatchability was observed with the decrease in temperature. However, the results were not statistically significant. Decrease in temperature from the optimum temperature to 19°C, also resulted in an increase in nymphal duration of N. viridula. However, no such effect of temperature within the studied range was observed on the morphology of nymphs or adults. Variation in temperature also had no adverse effects on the survival of laboratory bred population of Nezara nymphs. The feeding activity of the bug in relation to photoperiod was assessed by counting the number of punctures on the food surface. The results indicated that day-night regime did not affect the feeding activity of the bug significantly. The present study enhances our knowledge about the effect of environmental factors on the biology of insects and developing the strategy for ‘Integrated Pest Management’ of hemipteran insects by management of the physical factors.

Keywords: development, feeding, hatchability, Nezara viridula

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

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Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

Procedia PDF Downloads 633

Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

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Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

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Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Larry V. Aceres, Jesryl B. Paulite, Emelie M. Pelicano, J. A. Esteban, Mamangun

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Citrus rind borer still the most important pest infesting pummelo in the Philippines particularly in the Davao region. Hence, management of the pest is very important for successful pummelo production. This study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the different control strategies against citrus rind borer; to determine the best treatment in controlling citrus rind borer; and to calculate the profitability of the various treatments in pummelo production. The experiment was laid-out in Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with five treatments replicated three times. The treatments were: T1- curry tree leaf leachate, T2- neem tree leaf leachate, T3- bagging with an ordinary net, T4- treated check (chlorpyrifos & betacyflutrin) and T5- untreated check. Data were analyzed using the Analysis of Variance and the differences among treatment means were computed using the Tukey’s Honest Significant Difference. The results of the study revealed that the curry tree leaf leachate and bagging treatments provide significant protection to the pummelo fruits which is comparable with the treated check (chlorpyrifos & betacyflutrin). Neem tree leaf leachate is not effective in controlling citrus rind borer which is comparable with the untreated check. In cost and return analysis, the most economical and effective is the bagging treatment using ordinary net.

Keywords: curry tree, neem tree, bagging, citrus rind borer

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Authors: Sibusiso Trevor Tshabalala, Samuel Lubbe, Vince Vuledzani Ndou

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Dependency on chemicals has had many disadvantages in pest management control strategies. Such genetic rodenticide resistance and secondary exposure risk are what is currently being experienced. Emphasis on integrated pest management suggests that to control future pests, early intervention and economic threshold development are key starting points in crop production. The significance of this research project is to help establish a relationship between Giant African Land Snail (Achatina Fulica) solution extract, its shell chemical properties, and farmer’s perceptions of biological control in eThekwini Municipality Agri-hubs. A mixed design approach to collecting data will be explored using a trial layout in the field and through interviews. The experimental area will be explored using a split-plot design that will be replicated and arranged in a randomised complete block design. The split-plot will have 0, 10, 20 and 30 liters of water to one liter of snail solution extract. Plots were 50 m² each with a spacing of 12 m between each plot and a plant spacing of 0.5 m (inter-row) ‘and 0.5 m (intra-row). Trials will be irrigated using sprinkler irrigation, with objective two being added to the mix every 4-5 days. The expected outcome will be improved soil fertility and micro-organisms population proliferation.

Keywords: giant african land snail, integrated pest management, photosynthesis, genetic rodenticide resistance, control future pests, shell chemical properties

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: Md. Ruhul Amin, Shakura Namni, Md. Ramiz Uddin Miah, Md. Giashuddin Miah, Mohammad Zakaria, Sang Jae Suh, Yong Jung Kwon

Abstract:

Insect species abundance and diversity associated with meteorological factors during January to June 2013 at a mango-based agroforestry research field in Bangladesh, and the effects of pests and pollinator species on mango are presented in this study. Among the collected and identified insects, nine species belong to 3 orders were found as pollinator, 11 species in 5 orders as pest, and 13 species in 6 orders as predator. The mango hopper, fruit fly and stone weevil appeared as major pest because of their high levels of abundance and infestation. The hoppers caused 100% inflorescence damage followed by fruit fly (51.7% fruit) and stone weevil (31.0% mature fruit). The major pests exerted significantly higher abundance compared to pollinator, predator and minor pests. Hemipteroid insects were most abundant (60%) followed by Diptera (21%), Hymenoptera (10%), Lepidoptera (5%), and Coleoptera (4%). Insect population increased with increasing trend of temperature and humidity, and revealed peak abundance during April-May. The flower visiting insects differed in their landing duration and showed preference to forage with time of a day. Their foraging activity was found to be peaked between 11.00 am to 01.00 pm. The activity of the pollinators led to higher level of fruit set. This study provides baseline information about the phenological patterns of insect abundance in an agroforestry research field which could be an indication to incorporate some aspects of pest management.

Keywords: agroforestry, abundance, abiotic factors, insects, mango

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Authors: Moustafa Odah

Abstract:

Organic Agriculture is a new and sustainable agricultural system that depends on the use of organic materials from within the farm resulting from crop residues and animal husbandry and the cultivation of leguminous crops, away from the use of chemicals in fertilization or pest resistance, which leads to the production of safe, clean and healthy food products with nutritional value high and free of chemicals enhance food security; it is also an agricultural model preserve natural resources by improving the fertility and soil characteristics, and enhance biodiversity and biological cycles; additionally, they preserve the environment from pollution, which makes it play an important role in providing food needs of the present generations and the preservation of the rights of the coming generations to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: organic agriculture, food security and achieving sustainable development, fertilization or pest resistance, crop residues and animal husbandry and the cultivation of leguminous crops

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Hamid Rostami Jaz, Kamran Ameri Siahooei

Abstract:

Up to now different methods have been used to forecast the index returns and the index rate. Artificial intelligence and artificial neural networks have been one of the methods of index returns forecasting. This study attempts to carry out a comparative study on the performance of different Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network to forecast investment returns on the index. To achieve this goal, the return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange index is evaluated and the performance of Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network are compared. Neural networks performance test is applied based on the least square error in two approaches of in-sample and out-of-sample. The research results show the superiority of the radial base neural network in the in-sample approach and the superiority of perceptron neural network in the out-of-sample approach.

Keywords: exchange index, forecasting, perceptron neural network, Tehran stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Byung hyun Bae

Abstract:

In power transformer, leakage magnetic flux generate temperature rise of inner steel plate. Sometimes, this temperature rise can be serious problem. If temperature of steel plate is over critical point, harmful gas will be generated in the tank. And this gas can be a reason of fire, explosion and life decrease. So, temperature rise forecasting of steel plate is very important at the design stage of power transformer. To improve accuracy of forecasting of temperature rise, comparison between simulation and experiment achieved in this paper.

Keywords: power transformer, steel plate, temperature rise, experiment, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 476

Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

Abstract:

The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 293