Search results for: opening price

Authors: Luyao Zhang, Tianyu Wu, Jiayi Li, Carlos-Gustavo Salas-Flores, Saad Lahrichi

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Recent advances in AI have made algorithmic trading a central role in finance. However, current research and applications are disconnected information islands. We propose a generally applicable pipeline for designing, programming, and evaluating algorithmic trading of stock and crypto tokens. Moreover, we provide comparative case studies for four conventional algorithms, including moving average crossover, volume-weighted average price, sentiment analysis, and statistical arbitrage. Our study offers a systematic way to program and compare different trading strategies. Moreover, we implement our algorithms by object-oriented programming in Python3, which serves as open-source software for future academic research and applications.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, AI for finance, fintech, machine learning, moving average crossover, volume weighted average price, sentiment analysis, statistical arbitrage, pair trading, object-oriented programming, python3

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Velly Anatasia

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The worldwide annual expenditure for cosmetics is estimated at U.S. $18 billion and many players in the field are competing aggressively to capture more and more markets. Players in the cosmetics industry strive to be the foremost by establish customer loyalty. Furthermore, customer loyalty is portrayed by brand loyalty. Therefore, brand loyalty is the key determine of winning the competition in tight market. This study examines the influence of brand loyalty on cosmetics buying behavior of female consumers in Jakarta as capital of Indonesia. The seven factors of brand loyalty are brand name, Product quality, price, design, promotion, servicesquality and store environment. The paper adopted descriptive analysis, factor loading and multiple regression approach to test the hypotheses. The data has been collected by using questionnaires which were distributed and self-administered to 125female respondents accustomed using cosmetics. The findings of this study indicated that promotion has shown strong correlation with brand loyalty. The research results showed that there is positive and significant relationship between factors of brand loyalty (brand name, product quality, price, design, promotion, services quality and store environment) with cosmetics brand loyalty.

Keywords: brand loyalty, brand name, product quality, service quality, promotion

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Liang Zhang, Gang Xu, Yue Wang, Chen Li, Shao Chong Zhou

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Presently, more and more nuclear power plants are facing the issue of life extension. When a nuclear power plant applies for an extension of life, its condition needs to meet the current design standards, which is not fine for all old reactors, typically for seismic design. Seismic-grade equipment in nuclear power plants are now generally placed separately from the non-seismic-grade equipment, but it was not strictly required before. Therefore, it is very important to study whether non-seismic-grade equipment will affect the seismic-grade equipment when dropped down in an earthquake situation, which is related to the safety of nuclear power plants and future life extension applications. This research was based on the cooling water system with the seismic and non-seismic grade equipment installed together, as an example to study whether the non-seismic-grade equipment such as DN50 fire pipes and ventilation pipes arranged above will damage the DN300 pipes and valves arranged below when earthquakes occur. In the study, the simulation was carried out by ANSYS / LY-DYNA, and Johnson-Cook was used as the material model and failure model. For the experiments, the relative positions of objects in the room were restored by 1: 1. In the experiment, the pipes and valves were filled with water with a pressure of 0.785 MPa. The pressure-holding performance of the pipe was used as a criterion for damage. In addition to the pressure-holding performance, the opening torque was considered as well for the valves. The research results show that when the 10-meter-long DN50 pipe was dropped from the position of 8 meters height and the 8-meter-long air pipe dropped from a position of 3.6 meters height, they do not affect the integrity of DN300 pipe below. There is no failure phenomenon in the simulation as well. After the experiment, the pressure drop in two hours for the pipe is less than 0.1%. The main body of the valve does not fail either. The opening torque change after the experiment is less than 0.5%, but the handwheel of the valve may break, which affects the opening actions. In summary, impacts of the upper pipes and ventilation pipes dropdown on the integrity of the DN300 pipes and valves below in a cooling water system of a typical second-generation nuclear power plant under an earthquake was studied. As a result, the functionality of the DN300 pipeline and the valves themselves are not significantly affected, but the handwheel of the valve or similar articles can probably be broken and need to take care.

Keywords: cooling water system, earthquake, integrity, pipe and valve

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Mark-Adam Kellerman

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Proteins are capable of exploring vast mutational spaces. This makes it difficult for protein engineers to devise rational methods to improve stability and function via mutagenesis. Deciding which residues to mutate requires knowledge of the characteristics they elicit. We probed the characteristics of residues in granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) using a thermal melt (from 295K to 323K) to denature it in a 700 MHz Bruker spectrometer. These characteristics included dynamics, micro-environmental changes experienced/ induced during denaturing and structure-function relationships. 15N-1H HSQC experiments were performed at 2K increments along with this thermal melt. We observed that dynamic residues that also undergo a lot of change in their microenvironment were predominantly in unstructured regions. Moreover, we were able to identify four residues (G4, A6, T133 and Q134) that we class as high priority targets for mutagenesis, given that they all appear in both the top 10% of measures for environmental changes and dynamics (∑Δ and ∆PI). We were also able to probe these NMR observables and combine them with molecular dynamics (MD) to elucidate what appears to be an opening motion of G-CSFs binding site III. V48 appears to be pivotal to this opening motion, which also seemingly distorts the loop region between helices A and B. This observation is in agreement with previous findings that the conformation of this loop region becomes altered in an aggregation-prone state of G-CSF. Hence, we present here an approach to profile the characteristics of residues in order to highlight their potential as rational mutagenesis targets and their roles in important conformational changes. These findings present not only an opportunity to effectively make biobetters, but also open up the possibility to further understand epistasis and machine learn residue behaviours.

Keywords: protein engineering, rational mutagenesis, NMR, molecular dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Yaseri Dahlia Apritasari

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Visual comfort is important for the building occupants to need. Visual comfort can be fulfilled through natural lighting (daylighting) and artificial lighting. One strategy to optimize natural lighting can be achieved through the facade second skin design. This strategy can reduce glare, and fulfill visual comfort need. However, the design strategy cannot achieve light intensity for visual comfort. Because the materials, design and opening percentage of the facade of second skin blocked sunlight. This paper discusses aluminum material for the facade second skin design that can fulfill the optimal visual comfort with the case studies Multi Media Tower building. The methodology of the research is combination quantitative and qualitative through field study observed, lighting measurement and visual comfort questionnaire. Then it used too simulation modeling (DIALUX 4.13, 2016) for three facades second skin design model. Through following steps; (1) Measuring visual comfort factor: light intensity indoor and outdoor; (2) Taking visual comfort data from building occupants; (3) Making models with different facade second skin design; (3) Simulating and analyzing the light intensity value for each models that meet occupants visual comfort standard: 350 lux (Indonesia National Standard, 2010). The result shows that optimization of aluminum material for the facade second skin design can meet optimal visual comfort for building occupants. The result can give recommendation aluminum opening percentage of the facade second skin can meet optimal visual comfort for building occupants.

Keywords: aluminium material, Facade, second skin, visual comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: V. G. Cappellesso, D. M. G. da Silva, J. A. Arndt, N. dos Santos Petry, A. B. Masuero, D. C. C. Dal Molin

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Concrete elements are subject to cracking, which can be an access point for deleterious agents that can trigger pathological manifestations reducing the service life of these structures. Finding ways to minimize or eliminate the effects of this aggressive agents’ penetration, such as the sealing of these cracks, is a manner of contributing to the durability of these structures. The cementitious self-healing phenomenon can be classified in two different processes. The autogenous self-healing that can be defined as a natural process in which the sealing of this cracks occurs without the stimulation of external agents, meaning, without different materials being added to the mixture, while on the other hand, the autonomous seal-healing phenomenon depends on the insertion of a specific engineered material added to the cement matrix in order to promote its recovery. This work aims to evaluate the autogenous self-healing of concretes produced with different water/cement ratios and exposed to wet/dry cycles, considering two ages of crack openings, 3 days and 28 days. The self-healing phenomenon was evaluated using two techniques: crack healing measurement using ultrasonic waves and image analysis performed with an optical microscope. It is possible to observe that by both methods, it possible to observe the self-healing phenomenon of the cracks. For young ages of crack openings and lower water/cement ratios, the self-healing capacity is higher when compared to advanced ages of crack openings and higher water/cement ratios. Regardless of the crack opening age, these concretes were found to stabilize the self-healing processes after 80 days or 90 days.

Keywords: sealf-healing, autogenous, water/cement ratio, curing cycles, test methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit

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The objectives of the study were to determine the marketing mix factors that influencing tourist’s destination decision making for cultural tourism in the Chonburi province. Both quantitative and qualitative data were applied in this study. The samples of 400 cases for quantitative analysis were tourists (both Thai and foreign) who were interested in cultural tourism in the Chonburi province, and traveled to cultural sites in Chonburi and 14 representatives from provincial tourism committee of Chonburi and local tourism experts. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The study found that Thai and foreign tourists are influenced by different important marketing mix factors. The important factors for Thai respondents were physical evidence, price, people, and place at high importance level. For foreign respondents, physical evidence, price, people, and process were high importance level, whereas, product, place, and promotion were moderate importance level.

Keywords: Chonburi Province, decision making, cultural tourism, marketing mixed

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Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

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The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which in turn are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility, and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic, and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Ali Hassan, Mian Muhammad Awais, Muhammad Rafique Shahid, Farazia Hassan, Shumaila Rasool

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Dusky cotton bug (Oxycarenus laetus) has attained the status of major insect pest of cotton. It is also known as seed bug due to its property of feeding on seeds. It causes floral abscission at flowering stage and reduction in seed germination. Present study was carried out to assess germination loss caused by dusky bug with respect to crop stage and insect intensity. Treatments consisted of three stages immature boll, mature boll and opened boll as well three levels of dusky bug i.e., 50 bugs per boll, 40 bugs per boll along with zero level kept as control. Results showed that the germination percentage was highest in control treatment where no insect was released followed by treatment where 40 insects released and minimum germination showed by treatment in which 50 insects were released. The germination percentage of seeds surpassed after control treatment in the treatment where dusky bugs exposure was given at boll opening stage than on mature boll stage. Minimum germination was observed in immature boll stage. Interaction between crop stages and dusky bug levels showed that germination percentage of seeds was maximum in control treatment then boll opening stage followed by mature boll stage. Minimum seed germination was recorded in dusky bug treatment at immature boll stage which was 34% where 50 insects were released. From the results it is clear that dusky bug should be managed properly at all reproductive stages but immature stage is most critical.

Keywords: Gossypium hirsutum, Oxycarenus laetus, seed bug, seed germination

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Murad A. Bein

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This paper empirically examines the time-varying relationship and spillover effects between the international crude oil price and ten emerging equity markets, namely three oil-exporting countries (Brazil, Mexico, and Russia) and seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia). The results revealed that there are spillover effects from oil markets into almost all emerging equity markets save Slovakia. Besides, the oil supply glut had a homogenous effect on the emerging markets, both net oil-exporting, and oil-importing countries (CEE). Further, the time variance drastically increased during financial turmoil. Indeed, the time variance remained high from 2009 to 2012 in response to aggregate demand shocks (global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis) and quantitative easing measures. Interestingly, the time variance was slightly higher for the oil-exporting countries than for some of the CEE countries. Decision-makers in emerging economies should therefore seek policy coordination when dealing with financial turmoil.

Keywords: crude oil, spillover effects, emerging equity, time-varying, aggregate demand shock

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Maria Evnevich

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In modern conditions, in most markets, price competition is becoming less effective. On the one hand, there is a gradual decrease in the level of marginality in main traditional sectors of the economy, so further price reduction becomes too ‘expensive’ for the company. On the other hand, the effect of price reduction is leveled, and the reason for this phenomenon is likely to be informational. As a result, it turns out that even if the company reduces prices, making its products more accessible to the buyer, there is a high probability that this will not lead to increase in sales unless additional large-scale advertising and information campaigns are conducted. Similarly, a large-scale information and advertising campaign have a much greater effect itself than price reductions. At the same time, the cost of mass informing is growing every year, especially when using the main information channels. The article presents generalization, systematization and development of theoretical approaches and best practices in the field of customer focus approach to business management and in the field of relationship marketing in the modern digital economy. The research methodology is based on the synthesis and content-analysis of sociological and marketing research and on the study of the systems of working with consumer appeals and loyalty programs in the 50 largest client-oriented companies in Russia. Also, the analysis of internal documentation on customers’ purchases in one of the largest retail companies in Russia allowed to identify if buyers prefer to buy goods for complex purchases in one retail store with the best price image for them. The cost of attracting a new client is now quite high and continues to grow, so it becomes more important to keep him and increase the involvement through marketing tools. A huge role is played by modern digital technologies used both in advertising (e-mailing, SEO, contextual advertising, banner advertising, SMM, etc.) and in service. To implement the above-described client-oriented omnichannel service, it is necessary to identify the client and work with personal data provided when filling in the loyalty program application form. The analysis of loyalty programs of 50 companies identified the following types of cards: discount cards, bonus cards, mixed cards, coalition loyalty cards, bank loyalty programs, aviation loyalty programs, hybrid loyalty cards, situational loyalty cards. The use of loyalty cards allows not only to stimulate the customer to purchase ‘untargeted’, but also to provide individualized offers, as well as to produce more targeted information. The development of digital technologies and modern means of communication has significantly changed not only the sphere of marketing and promotion, but also the economic landscape as a whole. Factors of competitiveness are the digital opportunities of companies in the field of customer orientation: personalization of service, customization of advertising offers, optimization of marketing activity and improvement of logistics.

Keywords: customer focus, digital economy, loyalty program, relationship marketing

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: L. C. Prasanna, Antony Sylvan D’Souza, Kumar M. R. Bhat

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Although life as a conjoined twin would seem intolerable, there has recently been an increased interest in this subject because of the increasing number of cases where attempts have been made to separate them surgically. We have reviewed articles on cardiovascular anomalies in conjoined twins and presenting rarest anomaly in dicephalus parapagus fetus having two heads attached to one body from the neck or upper chest downwards, with a pair of limbs and a set of reproductive organs. Both the twins shared a common thoracic cavity with a single sternum. When the thoracic cavity was opened, a common anterior mediastinum was found. On opening the pericardium, two separate, closely apposed hearts were exposed. The two cardia are placed side by side. The left heart was slightly larger than the right and were joined at the atrial levels. Four atrial appendages were present, two for each twin. The atrial complex was a common chamber posterior to the ventricles. A single large tributary which could be taken as inferior vena cava drains into the common atrial chamber. In this case, the heart could not be assigned to either twin and therefore, it is referred to as the shared heart within a common pericardial sac. The right and left descending thoracic aorta have joined with each other just above the diaphragm to form a common descending thoracic aorta which has an opening in the diaphragm to be continued as common abdominal aorta which has a normal branching pattern. Upon an interior dissection, it is observed that the two atria have a wide communication which could be a wide patent foramen ovale and this common atrial cavity has a communication with a remnant of a possible common sinus venosus.

Keywords: atrium, congenital anomaly, conjoined twin, sinus venosus

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Authors: Sara Sousa

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The environmental goods and services have often been neglected in crucial decisions affecting the environment mainly because the difficulty in estimating their economic value, since we are dealing with non-market goods and, thus, without a price associated. Nevertheless, the inexistence of prices does not necessarily mean these goods have no value. The environment is a key element in today's society that seeks to be as sustainable as possible, where the environmental assets have both use and non-use values. To estimate the use value, researchers may apply the revealed preference methods. This paper provides a theoretical review of the main concepts and methodologies on the economic valuation of the environment, with particular emphasis on the revealed preference techniques. Based on a detailed literature review, this study concludes that, despite some inherent limitations, the revealed preference methodologies – travel cost, hedonic price, and averting behaviour – represent essential tools for the researchers who accept the challenge to estimate the use value of environmental goods and services based on the actual individuals` behaviour. The main purpose of this study is to contribute to an increased theoretical information on the economic valuation of environmental assets, allowing researchers and policymakers to improve future decisions regarding the environment.

Keywords: economic valuation, environmental goods, revealed preference methods, total economic value

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Adam Majczak, Grzegorz Barański, Marcin Szlachetka

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Environmental considerations necessitate the search for new energy sources. One of the available solutions is a partial replacement of diesel fuel by compressed natural gas (CNG) in the compression ignition engines. This type of the engines is used mainly in vans and trucks. These units are also gaining more and more popularity in the passenger car market. In Europe, this part of the market share reaches 50%. Diesel engines are also used in industry in such vehicles as ship or locomotives. Diesel engines have higher emissions of nitrogen oxides in comparison to spark ignition engines. This can be currently limited by optimizing the combustion process and the use of additional systems such as exhaust gas recirculation or AdBlue technology. As a result of the combustion process of diesel fuel also particulate matter (PM) that are harmful to the human health are emitted. Their emission is limited by the use of a particulate filter. One of the method for toxic components emission reduction may be the use of liquid gas fuel such as propane and butane (LPG) or compressed natural gas (CNG). In addition to the environmental aspects, there are also economic reasons for the use of gaseous fuels to power diesel engines. A total or partial replacement of diesel gas is possible. Depending on the used technology and the percentage of diesel fuel replacement, it is possible to reduce the content of nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gas even by 30%, particulate matter (PM) by 95 % carbon monoxide and by 20%, in relation to original diesel fuel. The research object is prototype gas injector designed for direct injection of compressed natural gas (CNG) in compression ignition engines. The construction of the injector allows for it positioning in the glow plug socket, so that the gas is injected directly into the combustion chamber. The cycle analysis of the four-cylinder Andoria ADCR engine with a capacity of 2.6 dm3 for different crankshaft rotational speeds allowed to determine the necessary time for fuel injection. Because of that, it was possible to determine the required mass flow rate of the injector, for replacing as much of the original fuel by gaseous fuel. To ensure a high value of flow inside the injector, supply pressure equal to 1 MPa was applied. High gas supply pressure requires high value of valve opening forces. For this purpose, an injector with hydraulic control system, using a liquid under pressure for the opening process was designed. On the basis of air pressure measurements in the flow line after the injector, the analysis of opening and closing of the valve was made. Measurements of outflow mass of the injector were also carried out. The results showed that the designed injector meets the requirements necessary to supply ADCR engine by the CNG fuel.

Keywords: CNG, diesel engine, gas flow, gas injector

Procedia PDF Downloads 467

Authors: Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom, Pimploi Tirastittam, Manop Tirastittam

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Thailand is the agriculture country which mainly exports the agriculture product to the other countries in so many ways which are fresh vegetable, chilled vegetable or frozen vegetable. The gross export for Thailand’s vegetable is 30-40 billion baht per year, and the growth rate is about 15-20 percent per year. Ginger is one of the main vegetable product that Thailand export to Japan because Thailand’s Ginger has a good quality and be able to supply Japan’s demand with a reasonable price. This research paper is aimed to study the factors which affect the efficiency of the supply chain process of Thailand’s ginger to Japan. There are 5 factors which related to the exporting Thailand’s ginger to Japan which are quality, price, equipment and supply standard, custom process and distribution pattern. The result of the research showed that the factor which reached the 'very good' significant level is quality of Thailand’s ginger with the score of 4.86. The other 5 factors are in the 'good' significant level. So the most important factor for Thai ginger farmer to concern is the quality of the product.

Keywords: critical success factor, export, ginger, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Waheed Akhtar

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Bears in Asia facing multiple threats and challenges such as hunting, illegal trading, habitat loss, and human conflicts. According to IUCN Red List, the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is listed as Vulnerable since 1990, population declining by 49% during the last 30 years. The present study was conducted in Manglawar (DwaSaro Mountain) from April-August 2021, to collect all the information on Asiatic black bear observation, illegal hunting, and cub poaching. According to the response of the local community, very intensive illegal hunting and cub poaching were observed. Hunters usually installed many traps in the routes of black bears and when they move in the winter season the cubs get trapped and they collect them and kept in a specialized wooden box that is mainly helpful for further transportation. These cubs are then brought to the concerned Market where they sell them to many dealers. One of the potential observers of the illegal trading responds towards the Market price of the cubs, “The average price of the black bear cub is ranging from 45000-50000 Pakistani Rupees”. Apart from cubs' poaching, the black bear is also hunted for its skin, claws, and teeth.

Keywords: first report, illegal hunting, cub poaching, parts trading, Ursus thibetanus

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Siri-orn Champatong

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The purpose of this research was to study factors that were related with travel behaviors of Thai tourists at the Ayothaya Floating Market, Phra Nakhon Sri Ayutthaya. The quantitative research was conducted with 400 samples of Thai tourists traveling to the Ayothaya Floating Market. The Questionnaire was a tool used to collect data, and the statistics used for data analysis were mean and Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. The results found that Thai tourists focused on attraction, easy access and facilities of the tourist spot at a high level. In addition, they gave priority to the marketing mix in the dimension of products, price, and distribution channels at a high level as well. For marketing promotion, it was at the moderate level. The results of hypothesis testing revealed that factors related to the attractions of the tourist destination, easy access to the tourist destination, the facilities of the tourist spot, and product and price of the marketing mix were associated with travel behaviors in the aspect of the number of visits used and the budget on tourism.

Keywords: floating market, marketing mix, tourism attractions, travelling behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

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For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia, Pedro Serrano

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This paper studies the informational content of pricing errors in the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. The residuals from a non-arbitrage model are employed to construct a Price discrepancy estimate, or noise measure. The noise estimate is understood as an indicator of market distress and reflects frictions such as illiquidity. Empirically, the noise measure is computed for an extensive panel of CDS spreads. Our results reveal an important fraction of systematic risk is not priced in default swap contracts. When projecting the noise measure onto a set of financial variables, the panel-data estimates show that greater price discrepancies are systematically related to a higher level of offsetting transactions of CDS contracts. This evidence suggests that arbitrage capital flows exit the marketplace during time of distress, and this consistent with a market segmentation among investors and arbitrageurs where professional arbitrageurs are particularly ineffective at bringing prices to their fundamental values during turbulent periods. Our empirical findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry.

Keywords: credit default swaps, noise measure, illiquidity, capital arbitrage

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Authors: Ezgi Avci-Surucu, Doganbey Akgul

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Turkey’s energy reforms has achieved energy security through a variety of interlinked measures including electricity, gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency legislation; the establishment of an energy sector regulatory authority; energy price reform; the creation of a functional electricity market; restructuring of state-owned energy enterprises; and private sector participation through privatization and new investment. However, current strategies, namely; “Electricity Sector Reform and Privatization Strategy” and “Electricity Market and Supply Security Strategy” has been criticized for various aspects. The present paper analyzes the implementation of the aforementioned strategies in the framework of generation scheduling, transmission constraints, bidding structure and general aspects; and argues the deficiencies of current strategies which decelerates power investments and creates uncertainties. We conclude by policy suggestions to eliminate these deficiencies in terms of price and risk management, infrastructure, customer focused regulations and systematic market development.

Keywords: electricity markets, risk management, regulations, balancing and settlement, bilateral trading, generation scheduling, bidding structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 532

Authors: Bundit Pungnirund, Boonyada Pahasing

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The objective of this research is to study factors related to behaviors of Thai travelers traveling to Koh Kret Island, Nonthaburi Province. The subjects of this study included 400 Thai travelers coming to Koh Kred. Questionnaires were used to collect data which were analyzed by computer program to find mean and correlation coefficient by Pearson. The results showed that Thai travelers reported their opinions and attitudes in high level on the marketing service mix, product, price, place, promotion, personal, physical evidence, and process. They reported on travelling motivation factor, tourist attraction, and facility at high level. Moreover, marketing service mix, product, price, place, promotion, personal, physical, and process including travelling motivation factor, tourist attraction, and facility had positive relationship with the frequency in travelling at statistically significant level (0.01), though in a low relationship but in the same direction.

Keywords: factors, behaviors, Thai travelers, Koh Kled, Nonthaburi Province

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

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This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene

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We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.

Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation

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Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

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Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: activity-based benefit assessment approach, input mixed, output rate, wet blue

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Authors: M. G. Cattaneo

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The non-effectiveness of certain codified human rights is particularly apparent with reference to the lack of access to essential drugs in developing countries, which represents a breach of the human right to receive adequate health assistance. This paper underlines the conflict and the legal contradictions between human rights, namely health rights, international Intellectual Property Rights, in particular patent law, as well as international trade law. The paper discusses the crucial links between R&D costs for innovation, patents and new medical drugs, with the goal of reformulating the hierarchies of priorities and of interests at stake in the international intellectual property (IP) law system. Different from what happens today, International patent law should be a legal instrument apt at rebalancing an axiological asymmetry between the (conflicting) needs at stake The core argument in the paper is the proposal of an alternative pathway, namely a feasible proposal for a patent law reform. IP laws tend to balance the benefits deriving from innovation with the costs of the provided monopoly, but since developing countries and industrialized countries are in completely different political and economic situations, it is necessary to (re)modulate such exchange according to the different needs. Based on this critical analysis, the paper puts forward a proposal, called Trading Time for Space (TTS), whereby a longer time for patent exclusive life in western countries (Time) is offered to the patent holder company, in exchange for the latter selling the medical drug at cost price in developing countries (Space). Accordingly, pharmaceutical companies should sell drugs in developing countries at the cost price, or alternatively grant a free license for the sale in such countries, without any royalties or fees. However, such social service shall be duly compensated. Therefore, the consideration for such a service shall be an extension of the temporal duration of the patent’s exclusive in the country of origin that will compensate the reduced profits caused by the supply at the price cost in developing countries.

Keywords: global health, global justice, patent law reform, access to drugs

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Authors: Ling Qi, Matloob Khushi, Josiah Poon

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This paper introduces a pre-trained Masked Candlestick Model (MCM) for trading time-series data. The pre-trained model is based on three core designs. First, we convert trading price data at each data point as a set of normalized elements and produce embeddings of each element. Second, we generate a masked sequence of such embedded elements as inputs for self-supervised learning. Third, we use the encoder mechanism from the transformer to train the inputs. The masked model learns the contextual relations among the sequence of embedded elements, which can aid downstream classification tasks. To evaluate the performance of the pre-trained model, we fine-tune MCM for three different downstream classification tasks to predict future price trends. The fine-tuned models achieved better accuracy rates for all three tasks than the baseline models. To better analyze the effectiveness of MCM, we test the same architecture for three currency pairs, namely EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, and EUR/JPY. The experimentation results demonstrate MCM’s effectiveness on all three currency pairs and indicate the MCM’s capability for signal extraction from trading data.

Keywords: masked language model, transformer, time series prediction, trading prediction, embedding, transfer learning, self-supervised learning

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Authors: T. N. Goh, M. Hashmi, O. Hussain

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Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) dysfunction (TMD) is a condition that may affect patients via restricted mouth opening, significant pain during normal functioning, and/or reproducible joint noise. TMD includes myofascial pain, TMJ functional derangements (internal derangement, dislocation), and TMJ degenerative/inflammatory joint disease. Internal derangement (ID) is the most common cause of TMD-related clicking and locking. These patients are managed in a stepwise approach, from patient education (homecare advice and analgesia), splint therapy, physiotherapy, botulinum toxin treatment, to arthrocentesis. Arthrotomy is offered when the aforementioned treatment options fail to alleviate symptoms and improve quality of life. The aim of this prospective study was to review the outcomes of jaw joint open surgery in TMD patients. Patients who presented from 2015-2022 at the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Department in the Doncaster NHS Foundation Trust, UK, with a Wilkes classification of III -V were included. These patients underwent either i) discopexy with bone-anchoring suture (9); ii) intrapositional temporalis flap (ITF) with bone-anchoring suture (3); iii) eminoplasty and discopexy with suturing to the capsule (3); iii) discectomy + ITF with bone-anchoring suture (1); iv) discoplasty + bone-anchoring suture (1); v) ITF (1). Maximum incisal opening (MIO) was assessed pre-operatively and at each follow-up. Pain score, determined via the visual analogue scale (VAS, with 0 being no pain and 10 being the worst pain), was also recorded. A total of 18 eligible patients were identified with a mean age of 45 (range 22 - 79), of which 16 were female. The patients were scored by Wilkes Classification as III (14), IV (1), or V (4). Twelve patients had anterior disc displacement without reduction (66%) and six had degenerative/arthritic changes (33%) to the TMJ. The open joint procedure resulted in an increase in MIO and reduction in pain VAS and for the majority of patients, across all Wilkes Classifications. Pre-procedural MIO was 22.9 ± 7.4 mm and VAS was 7.8 ± 1.5. At three months post-procedure there was an increase in MIO to 34.4 ± 10.4 mm (p < 0.01) and a decrease in the VAS to 1.5 ± 2.9 (p < 0.01). Three patients were lost to follow-up prior to six months. Six were discharged at six month review and five patients were discharged at 12 months review as they were asymptomatic with good mouth opening. Four patients are still attending for annual botulinum toxin treatment. Two patients (Wilkes III and V) subsequently underwent TMJ replacement (11%). One of these patients (Wilkes III) had improvement initially to MIO of 40 mm, but subsequently relapsed to less than 20 mm due to lack of compliance with jaw rehabilitation device post-operatively. Clinical improvements in 89% of patients within the study group were found, with a return to near normal MIO range and reduced pain score. Intraoperatively, the operator found bone-anchoring suture used for discopexy/discoplasty more secure than the soft tissue anchoring suturing technique.

Keywords: bone anchoring suture, open temporomandibular joint surgery, temporomandibular joint, temporomandibular joint dysfunction

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Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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Authors: Peter Shi

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Algorithmic trading is a rapidly expanding domain within quantitative finance, constituting a substantial portion of trading volumes in the US financial market. The demand for rigorous and robust mathematical theories underpinning these trading algorithms is ever-growing. In this study, the author establishes a new stock market model that integrates the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the statistical arbitrage. The model, for the first time, finds probabilistic relations between the rational price and the market price in terms of the conditional expectation. The theory consequently leads to a mathematical justification of the old market adage: buy-low and sell-high. The thresholds for “low” and “high” are precisely derived using a max-min operation on Bayes’s error. This explicit connection harmonizes the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Statistical Arbitrage, demonstrating their compatibility in explaining market dynamics. The amalgamation represents a pioneering contribution to quantitative finance. The study culminates in comprehensive numerical tests using historical market data, affirming that the “buy-low” and “sell-high” algorithm derived from this theory significantly outperforms the general market over the long term in four out of six distinct market environments.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance, Bayes' decision, algorithmic trading, risk control, stock market

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Authors: Majid Lotfi Ghahroud, Seyed Jalal Tabatabaei, Ebrahim Karami, AmirArsalan Ghergherechi, Amir Ali Saeidi

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In this study, the relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange and whether their relationship -behavioral or risk factors- are discussed. Generally, there are two perspectives; risk-based approach and behavioral approach. According to the risk-based approach due to increase investment, systemic risk and consequently the stock returns are reduced. But due to the second approach, an excessive optimism or pessimism leads to assuming stock price with high investment growth in the past, higher than its intrinsic value and the price of stocks with lower investment growth, less than its intrinsic value. The investigation period is eight years from 2007 to 2014. The sample consisted of all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The method is a portfolio test, and the analysis is based on the t-student test (t-test). The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies and this negative correlation is stronger for firms with higher cash flow. Also, the negative relationship between asset growth and stock returns is due to behavioral factors.

Keywords: behavioral theory, investment growth, risk-based theory, stock returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 133