Search results for: meteorological drought probabilities

Authors: Mohammad Reza Farzami Pour

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Determination of genetic variation is useful for plant breeding and hence production of more efficient plant species under different conditions, like drought stress. In this study, a sample of 28 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of wheat developed from the cross of Norstar and Zagross varieties, together with their parents, were evaluated for two years (2010-2012) under normal and water stress conditions using split plot design with three replications. Main plots included two irrigation treatments of 70 and 140 mm evaporation from Class A pan and sub-plots consisted of 30 genotypes. The effect of genotypes and interaction of genotypes with years and water regimes were significant for all characters. Significant genotypic effect implies the existence of genetic variation among the lines under study. Heritability estimates were high for 1000 grain weight (0.87). Biomass and grain yield showed the lowest heritability values (0.42 and 0.50, respectively). Highest genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variation (GCV and PCV) belonged to harvest index. Moderate genetic advance for most of the traits suggested the feasibility of selection among the RILs under investigation. Some RILs were higher yielding than either parent at both environments.

Keywords: wheat, genetic gain, heritability, recombinant inbred lines

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Authors: Edilene Machado, Carolina Karoly, Amanda Britz, Luciane Salvi, Claudineia Brazil

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Climate teleconnections refer to the climatic relationships between geographically distant regions, where changes in one location can influence weather patterns in another. These connections can occur through atmospheric and oceanic processes, leading to variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic elements. Studying teleconnections is crucial for better understanding the mechanisms that govern global climate and the potential consequences of climate change. A notable example of a teleconnection is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which involves the interaction between the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. During El Niño episodes, there is anomalous warming of the surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific, resulting in significant changes in global climate patterns. These changes can affect rainfall distribution, wind patterns, and temperatures in different parts of the world. The cold phase of ENSO, known as La Niña, is often associated with reduced precipitation and below-average temperatures in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this research is to identify patterns between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in their different phases and dengue transmission. Meteorological data and dengue case records for the city of Porto Alegre, in the southern region of Brazil, were used for the development of this research. The study highlighted that the highest incidence of dengue cases occurred during the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Keywords: climate patterns, climate teleconnections, climate variability, dengue, El Niño-Southern oscillation

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Authors: G. Sridevi, Amalendu Jyotishi, Sushanta Mahapatra, G. Jagadeesh, Satyasiba Bedamatta

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Climate change is a main challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for millions of people in India. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather conditions. Among India’s population of more than one billion people, about 68% are directly or indirectly involved in the agricultural sector. This sector is particularly vulnerable to present-day climate variability. In this contest this paper examines the Socio-economic and climate analytical study of the vulnerability index in Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Using secondary data; it examines the vulnerability through five different sub-indicator of socio-demographic, agriculture, occupational, common property resource (CPR), and climate in respective states among different districts. Data used in this paper has taken from different sources, like census in India 2011, Directorate of Economics and Statistics of respective states governments. Rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In order to capture the vulnerability from two different states the composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed and used. This indicates the vulnerability situation of different districts under two states. The study finds that Adilabad district in Andhra Pradesh and Chamarajanagar in Karnataka had highest level of vulnerability while Hyderabad and Bangalore in respective states have least level of vulnerability.

Keywords: vulnerability, agriculture, climate change, global warming

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Authors: Soorya Vennila

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The present study answers the questions; how does climate change affect the water security in drought prone Ramanathapuram district? and what has water insecurity done to the health of the coastal community? The study area chosen is Devipattinam in Ramanathapuram district. Climate change evidentially wreaked havoc on the community with saltwater intrusion, water quality degradation, water scarcity and its eventual economic, social like power inequality within family and community and health hazards. The climatological data such as rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were statistically analyzed for trend using Mann-Kendall test. The test was conducted for 14 years (1989-2002) of rainfall data, maximum and minimum temperature and the data were statistically analyzed. At the outset, the water quality samples were collected from Devipattinam to test its physical and chemical parameters and their spatial variation. The results were derived as shown in ARC GIS. Using the water quality test water quality index were framed. And finally, key Informant interview, questionnaire were conducted to capture the gender perception and problem. The data collected were thereafter interpreted using SPSS software for recommendations and suggestions to overcome water scarcity and health problems.

Keywords: health, watersecurity, water quality, climate change

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Authors: Pelin Kinay, Andy P. Morse, Elmer V. Villanueva, Karyn Morrissey, Philip L Staddon, Shanzheng Zhang, Jingjing Liu

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The present study aims to evaluate the climate change and health related knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of the elderly population (60 years plus) in Hefei and Suzhou cities of China (n=300). This cross-sectional study includes 150 participants in each city. Data regarding demographic characteristics, KAP, and climate change perceptions were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire. When asked about the potential impacts of climate change over 79% of participants stated that climate change affected their lifestyle. Participants were most concerned about storms (51.7%), food shortage (33.3%) and drought (26%). The main health risks cited included water contamination (32%), air pollution related diseases (38.3%) and lung disease (43%). Finally, a majority (68.3%) did not report receiving government assistance on climate change issues. Logistic regression models were used to analyse the data in order to understand the links between socio-demographical factors and KAP of the participants. These findings provide insights for potential adaptation strategies targeting the elderly. It is recommended that government should take responsibility in creating awareness strategies to improve the coping capacity of elderly in China to climate change and its health impacts and develop climate change adaptation strategies.

Keywords: China, climate change, elderly, KAP

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Authors: Lorenza Abbracciavento, Valerio De Biagi

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Infrastructures are key elements to ensure the operational functionality of the transport system. The collapse of a single bridge or, equivalently, a tunnel can leads an entire motorway to be considered completely inaccessible. As a consequence, the paralysis of the communications network determines several important drawbacks for the community. Recent chronicle events have demonstrated that ensuring the functional continuity of the strategic infrastructures during and after a catastrophic event makes a significant difference in terms of life and economical losses. Moreover, it has been observed that RC structures located in mountain environments show a worst state of conservation compared to the same typology and aging structures located in temperate climates. Because of its morphology, in fact, the mountain environment is particularly exposed to severe collapse and deterioration phenomena, generally: natural hazards, e.g. rock falls, and meteorological hazards, e.g. freeze-thaw cycles or heavy snows. For these reasons, deep investigation on the characteristics of these processes becomes of fundamental importance to provide smart and sustainable solutions and make the infrastructure system more resilient. In this paper, the design of a monitoring system in mountainous environments is presented and analyzed in its parts. The method not only takes into account the peculiar climatic conditions, but it is integrated and interacts with the environment surrounding.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, resilience of bridges, mountain infrastructures, infrastructural network, maintenance

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Authors: O. V. Vyazovska

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Behavioral efficiency is one of the main principles to be successful in nature. Accuracy of visual discrimination is determined by the attention, learning experience, and memory. In the experimental condition, pigeons’ responses to visual stimuli presented on the screen of the monitor are behaviorally manifested by pecking or not pecking the stimulus, by the number of pecking, reaction time, etc. The higher the probability of rewarding is, the more likely pigeons will respond to the stimulus. We trained 8 pigeons (Columba livia) on a stagewise go/no-go visual discrimination task.16 visual stimuli were created from all possible combinations of four binary dimensions: brightness (dark/bright), size (large/small), line orientation (vertical/horizontal), and shape (circle/square). In the first stage, we presented S+ and 4 S-stimuli: the first that differed in all 4-dimensional values from S+, the second with brightness dimension sharing with S+, the third sharing brightness and orientation with S+, the fourth sharing brightness, orientation and size. Then all 16 stimuli were added. Pigeons rejected correctly 6-8 of 11 new added S-stimuli at the beginning of the second stage. The results revealed that pigeons’ behavior at the beginning of the second stage was controlled by probabilities of rewarding for 4 dimensions learned in the first stage. More or fewer mistakes with dimension discrimination at the beginning of the second stage depended on the number S- stimuli sharing the dimension with S+ in the first stage. A significant inverse correlation between the number of S- stimuli sharing dimension values with S+ in the first stage and the dimensional learning rate at the beginning of the second stage was found. Pigeons were more confident in discrimination of shape and size dimensions. They made mistakes at the beginning of the second stage, which were not associated with these dimensions. Thus, the received results help elucidate the principles of dimensional stimulus control during learning compound multidimensional visual stimuli.

Keywords: visual go/no go discrimination, selective attention, dimensional stimulus control, pigeon

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Authors: Sidali Khedidji, Noureddine Yassaa, Riad Ladji

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In this study, n-alkanes which are hazardous for the environment and human health were investigated in Sour El Ghozlane suburban atmosphere at a sampling point from April 2013 to Mai 2013. Ambient concentration measurements of n-Alkanes were carried out at a regional study of the cement industry in Sour El Ghozlane. During sampling, the airborne particulate matter was enriched onto PTFE filters by using a two medium volume samplers with or without a size-selective inlet for PM10 and TSP were used and each sampling period lasted approximately 24 h. The organic compounds were characterized using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometric detection (GC-MS). Total concentrations for n-Alkanes recorded in Sour El Ghozlane suburban ranged from 42 to 69 ng m-3. Gravimeter method was applied to the black smoke concentration data for Springer seasons. The 24 h average concentrations of n-alkanes contain the PM10 and TSP of Sour El Ghozlane suburban atmosphere were found in the range 0.50–7.06 ng/m3 and 0.29–6.97 ng/m3, respectively, in the sampling period. Meteorological factors, such as (relative humidity and temperature) were typically found to be affecting PMs, especially PM10. Air temperature did not seem to be significantly affecting TSP and PM10 mass concentrations. The guide value fixed by the European Community, 40 μg/m3 was not to exceed 35 days, was exceeded in some samples. However, it should be noted that the value limit fixed by the Algerian regulations 80 μg/m3 has been exceeded in 1 sampler during the period study.

Keywords: n-alkanes, PM10, TSP, particulate matter, cement industry

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Tesfay Mekonnen Weldegerima

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Analysis of precipitation time series is a fundamental undertaking in meteorology and hydrology. The extreme precipitation scenario of the Kulfo River watershed is studied using wavelet analysis and atmospheric transport, a lagrangian trajectory model. Daily rainfall data for the 1991-2020 study periods are collected from the office of the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. Meteorological fields on a three-dimensional grid at 0.5o x 0.5o spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution are also obtained from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Wavelet analysis of the daily precipitation processed with the lag-1 coefficient reveals some high power recurred once every 38 to 60 days with greater than 95% confidence for red noise. The analysis also identified inter-annual periodicity in the periods 2002 - 2005 and 2017 - 2019. Back trajectory analysis for 3-day periods up to May 19/2011, indicates the Indian Ocean source; trajectories crossed the eastern African escarpment to arrive at the Kulfo watershed. Atmospheric flows associated with the Western Indian monsoon redirected by the low-level Somali winds and Arabian ridge are responsible for the moisture supply. The time-localization of the wavelet power spectrum yields valuable hydrological information, and the back trajectory approaches provide useful characterization of air mass source.

Keywords: extreme precipitation events, power spectrum, back trajectory, kulfo watershed

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Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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Authors: Taleb L., Benarbia M., Boutira F. M., Allam H., Boukerche A.

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Introduction and purpose of the study: Meningiomas are the most common non-glial intracranial tumors in adults, accounting for approximately 30% of all central nervous system tumors. The aim of our study is to determine the epidemiological, clinical, therapeutic, and evolutionary characteristics of a cohort of patients with intracranial meningioma treated with radiotherapy at the Emir Abdelkader Cancer Center in Oran. Material and methods: This is a retrospective study of 44 patients during the period from 2014 to 2020. The overall survival and relapse-free survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results and statistical analysis: The median age of the patients was 49 years [21-76 years] with a clear female predominance (sex ratio=2.4). The average diagnostic delay was seven months [2 to 24 months], the circumstances of the discovery of which were dominated by headaches in 54.5% of cases (n=24), visual disturbances in 40.9% (n=18), and motor disorders in 15.9% (n=7). The seat of the tumor was essentially at the level of the base of the skull in 52.3% of patients (n=23), including 29.5% (n=13) at the level of the cavernous sinus, 27.3% (n=12) at the parasagittal level and 20.5% (n=9) at the convexity. The diagnosis was confirmed surgically in 36 patients (81.8%) whose anatomopathological study returned in favor of grades I, II, and III in respectively 40.9%, 29.5%, and 11.4% of the cases. Radiotherapy was indicated postoperatively in 45.5% of patients (n=20), exclusive in 27.3% (n=12) and after tumor recurrence in 27.3% of cases (n=18). The irradiation doses delivered were as follows: 50 Gy (20.5%), 54 Gy (65.9%), and 60 Gy (13.6%). With a median follow-up of 69 months, the probabilities of relapse-free survival and overall survival at three years are 93.2% and 95.4%, respectively, whereas they are 71.2% and 80.7% at five years. Conclusion: Meningiomas are common primary brain tumors. Most often benign but can also progress aggressively. Their treatment is essentially surgical, but radiotherapy retains its place in specific situations, allowing good tumor control and overall survival.

Keywords: diagnosis, meningioma, surgery, radiotherapy, survival

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

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Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Said Munir, Karl Ropkins, Essam A. Morsy, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Abdulaziz R. Seroji

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In this paper air quality conditions in Makkah and Leeds are compared. These two cities have totally different climatic conditions. Makkah climate is characterised as hot and dry (arid) whereas that of Leeds is characterised as cold and wet (temperate). This study uses air quality data from year 2012 collected in Makkah, Saudi Arabia and Leeds, UK. The concentrations of all pollutants, except NO are higher in Makkah. Most notable, the concentrations of PM10 are much higher in Makkah than in Leeds. This is probably due to the arid nature of climatic conditions in Makkah and not solely due to anthropogenic emission sources, otherwise like PM10 some of the other pollutants, such as CO, NO, and SO2 would have shown much greater difference between Leeds and Makkah. Correlation analysis is performed between different pollutants at the same site and the same pollutants at different sites. In Leeds the correlation between PM10 and other pollutants is significantly stronger than in Makkah. Weaker correlation in Makkah is probably due to the fact that in Makkah most of the gaseous pollutants are emitted by combustion processes, whereas most of the PM10 is generated by other sources, such as windblown dust, re-suspension, and construction activities. This is in contrast to Leeds where all pollutants including PM10 are predominantly emitted by combustions, such as road traffic. Furthermore, in Leeds frequent rains wash out most of the atmospheric particulate matter and supress re-suspension of dust. Temporal trends of various pollutants are compared and discussed. This study emphasises the role of climatic conditions in managing air quality, and hence the need for region-specific controlling strategies according to the local climatic and meteorological conditions.

Keywords: air pollution, climatic conditions, particulate matter, Makkah, Leeds

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Authors: O. Smara, H. Dendougui, B. Legseir

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Atriplex halimus L. is particularly well adapted to arid and salt-affected areas. In this species, salinity resistance is often attributed to the presence of vesiculated hairs covering leaf surface and containing a large amount of salt. Atriplex halimus L. (Chenopodiaceae) is a perennial shrub native to the Mediterranean basin with excellent tolerance to drought and salinity. The species is present in semiarid to subhumid areas of the north Mediterranean and in arid zones from North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. The main aim of this study was to identify a medicinal plant used in the Ouargla (Est-southern Algeria) for the treatment of several human pathologies. This plant is an important source for livestock in nitrogenous matter, it is an effective and relatively inexpensive tool in the fight against erosion and desertification and rehabilitation of degraded lands. Phytochemical investigation is applied to the majority of extracts of the powder of the aerial parts of Atriplex halimus L. Different chromatographic methods after liquid-liquid extraction are used; it is the thin layer chromatography (TLC) and paper using multiple systems and chemical revelations. This study followed by an evaluation by the phenol assay the Folin-Ciocalteu method, using gallic acid as a reference for phenols and quercetin for flavonols. Some polar extracts showed an interesting result better than the less polar extracts.

Keywords: Atriples halimus L., chenopodiaceae, flavonoids, phenols

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Authors: Mahmoud Zakeri Niri, Saber Moazami, Arman Abdollahipour, Hossein Ghalkhani

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The objective of this research is to hydrological evaluation of four widely-used satellite precipitation products named PERSIANN, TMPA-3B42V7, TMPA-3B42RT, and CMORPH over Zarinehrood basin in Iran. For this aim, at first, daily streamflow of Sarough-cahy river of Zarinehrood basin was simulated using IHACRES rainfall-runoff model with daily rain gauge and temperature as input data from 1988 to 2008. Then, the model was calibrated in two different periods through comparison the simulated discharge with the observed one at hydrometric stations. Moreover, in order to evaluate the performance of satellite precipitation products in streamflow simulation, the calibrated model was validated using daily satellite rainfall estimates from the period of 2003 to 2008. The obtained results indicated that TMPA-3B42V7 with CC of 0.69, RMSE of 5.93 mm/day, MAE of 4.76 mm/day, and RBias of -5.39% performs better simulation of streamflow than those PERSIANN and CMORPH over the study area. It is noteworthy that in Iran, the availability of ground measuring station data is very limited because of the sparse density of hydro-meteorological networks. On the other hand, large spatial and temporal variability of precipitations and lack of a reliable and extensive observing system are the most important challenges to rainfall analysis, flood prediction, and other hydrological applications in this country.

Keywords: hydrological evaluation, IHACRES, satellite precipitation product, streamflow simulation

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Authors: G. Stamatopoulou, M. Symeonaki, C. Michalopoulou

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In this work, we study the intergenerational social mobility in Greece, in order to provide up-to-date evidence on the changes in the mobility patterns throughout the years. An analysis for both men and women aged between 25-64 years old is carried out. Three main research objectives are addressed. First, we aim to examine the relationship between the socio-economic status of parents and their children. Secondly, we investigate the evolution of the mobility patterns between different birth cohorts. Finally, the role of education is explored in shaping the mobility patterns. For the analysis, we draw data on both parental and individuals' social outcomes from different national databases. The social class of origins and destination is measured according to the European Socio-Economic Classification (ESeC), while the respondents' educational attainment is coded into categories based on the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). Applying the Markov transition probability theory, and a range of measures and models, this work focuses on the magnitude and the direction of the movements that take place in the Greek labour market, as well as the level of social fluidity. Three-way mobility tables are presented, where the transition probabilities between the classes of destination and origins are calculated for different cohorts. Additionally, a range of absolute and relative mobility rates, as well as distance measures, are presented. The study covers a large time span beginning in 1940 until 1995, shedding light on the effects of the national institutional processes on the social movements of individuals. Given the evidence on the mobility patterns of the most recent birth cohorts, we also investigate the possible effects of the 2008 economic crisis.

Keywords: cohort analysis, education, Greece, intergenerational mobility, social class

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Authors: Sidali Khedidji, Riad Ladji, Noureddine Yassaa

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In this study, particulate matter (PM10) which are hazardous for environment and human health were investigated in Sour El Ghozlane suburban atmosphere at a sampling point from March 2013 to April 2013. Ambient concentration measurements of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were carried out at a regional study of the cement industry in Sour El Ghozlane. During sampling, the airborne particulate matter was enriched onto PTFE filters by using a two medium volume samplers with or without a size-selective inlet for PM10 and TSP were used and each sampling period lasted approximately 24 h. The organic compounds were characterized using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometric detection (GC-MSD). Total concentrations for PAHs recorded in sour el ghozlane suburban ranged from 101 to 204 ng m-3. Gravimeter method was applied to the black smoke concentration data for Springer seasons. The 24 h average concentrations of PM10 and TSP of Sour El Ghozlane suburban atmosphere were found in the range 4.76–165.76 μg/m3 and 28.63–800.14 μg/m3, respectively, in the sampling period. Meteorological factors, such as (relative humidity and temperature) were typically found to be affecting PMs, especially PM10. Air temperature did not seem to be significantly affecting TSP and PM10 mass concentrations.The guide value fixed by the European Community «40 μg/m3» not to exceed 35 days, were exceeded in some samples. However, it should be noted that the value limit fixed by the Algerian regulations «80 μg/m3» has been exceeded in 3 samplers during the period study.

Keywords: PAHs, PM10, TSP, particulate matter, cement industry

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Authors: J. Bahrawi, M. Elhag

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Estimation of evapotranspiration is always a major component in water resources management. Traditional techniques of calculating daily evapotranspiration based on field measurements are valid only for local scales. Earth observation satellite sensors are thus used to overcome difficulties in obtaining daily evapotranspiration measurements on regional scale. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was adopted to estimate daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation along with other land surface energy fluxes. The model requires agro-climatic data that improve the model outputs. Advance Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Medium Spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imageries were used to estimate the daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation over the entire Nile Delta region in Egypt supported by meteorological data collected from six different weather stations located within the study area. Daily evapotranspiration maps derived from SEBS model show a strong agreement with actual ground-truth data taken from 92 points uniformly distributed all over the study area. Moreover, daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation are strongly correlated. The reliable estimation of daily evapotranspiration supports the decision makers to review the current land use practices in terms of water management, while enabling them to propose proper land use changes.

Keywords: daily evapotranspiration, relative evaporation, SEBS, AATSR, MERIS, Nile Delta

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Authors: Ji-Seok Koo, Hee‑Yong Kwon, Hui-Young Yun, Kyung-Hui Wang, Youn-Seo Koo

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This paper presents a forecasting system for PM2.5 levels in Seoul, South Korea, leveraging a combination of chemical transport modeling and ConvLSTM-DNN machine learning technology. Exposure to PM2.5 has known detrimental impacts on public health, making its prediction crucial for establishing preventive measures. Existing forecasting models, like the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are hindered by their reliance on uncertain input data, such as anthropogenic emissions and meteorological patterns, as well as certain intrinsic model limitations. The system we've developed specifically addresses these issues by integrating machine learning and using carefully selected input features that account for local and distant sources of PM2.5. In South Korea, the PM2.5 concentration is greatly influenced by both local emissions and long-range transport from China, and our model effectively captures these spatial and temporal dynamics. Our PM2.5 prediction system combines the strengths of advanced hybrid machine learning algorithms, convLSTM and DNN, to improve upon the limitations of the traditional CMAQ model. Data used in the system include forecasted information from CMAQ and WRF models, along with actual PM2.5 concentration and weather variable data from monitoring stations in China and South Korea. The system was implemented specifically for Seoul's PM2.5 forecasting.

Keywords: PM2.5 forecast, machine learning, convLSTM, DNN

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Authors: Titanilla Komenda

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Human-machine-collaboration defines a direct interaction between humans and machines to fulfil specific tasks. Those so-called collaborative machines are used without fencing and interact with humans in predefined workspaces. Even though, human-machine-collaboration enables a flexible adaption to variable degrees of freedom, industrial applications are rarely found. The reasons for this are not technical progress but rather limitations in planning processes ensuring safety for operators. Until now, humans and machines were mainly considered separately in the planning process, focusing on ergonomics and system performance respectively. Within human-machine-collaboration, those aspects must not be seen in isolation from each other but rather need to be analysed in interaction. Furthermore, a simulation model is needed that can validate the system performance and ensure the safety for the operator at any given time. Following on from this, a holistic simulation model is presented, enabling a simulative representation of collaborative tasks – including both, humans and machines. The presented model does not only include a geometry and a motion model of interacting humans and machines but also a numerical behaviour model of humans as well as a Boole’s probabilistic sensor model. With this, error scenarios can be simulated by validating system behaviour in unplanned situations. As these models can be defined on the basis of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis as well as probabilities of errors, the implementation in a collaborative model is discussed and evaluated regarding limitations and simulation times. The functionality of the model is shown on industrial applications by comparing simulation results with video data. The analysis shows the impact of considering human factors in the planning process in contrast to only meeting system performance. In this sense, an optimisation function is presented that meets the trade-off between human and machine factors and aids in a successful and safe realisation of collaborative scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine-system, human-robot-collaboration, safety, simulation

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Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: I Dewa Gede Arya Putra

Abstract:

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a mathematical procedure that uses orthogonal transformation techniques to change a set of data with components that may be related become components that are not related to each other. This can have an impact on clustering wind speed characteristics in Indonesia. This study uses data daily wind speed observations of the Site Meteorological Station network for 30 years. Multicollinearity tests were also performed on all of these data before doing clustering with PCA. The results show that the four main components have a total diversity of above 80% which will be used for clusters. Division of clusters using Ward's method obtained 3 types of clusters. Cluster 1 covers the central part of Sumatra Island, northern Kalimantan, northern Sulawesi, and northern Maluku with the climatological pattern of wind speed that does not have an annual cycle and a weak speed throughout the year with a low-speed ranging from 0 to 1,5 m/s². Cluster 2 covers the northern part of Sumatra Island, South Sulawesi, Bali, northern Papua with the climatological pattern conditions of wind speed that have annual cycle variations with low speeds ranging from 1 to 3 m/s². Cluster 3 covers the eastern part of Java Island, the Southeast Nusa Islands, and the southern Maluku Islands with the climatological pattern of wind speed conditions that have annual cycle variations with high speeds ranging from 1 to 4.5 m/s².

Keywords: PCA, cluster, Ward's method, wind speed

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Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

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Authors: Yousef Abdulaziz Almolhem

Abstract:

Geographically, the most Arabic countries locate in areas confined to arid or semiarid regions. For this reason, most of our countries have adopted the seawater desalination as a strategy to overcome this problem. For example, the water supply of AUE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia is almost 100% from the seawater desalination plants. Many areas in Saudia Arabia and other countries in the world suffer from lack of fresh water which hinders the development of these areas, despite the availability of saline water and high solar radiation intensity. Furthermore, most developing countries do not have sufficient meteorological data to evaluate if the solar radiation is enough to meet the solar desalination. A mathematical model was developed to simulate and predict the thermal behavior of the solar still which used direct solar energy for distillation of seawater. Measurement data were measured in the Environment and Natural Resources Department, Faculty of Agricultural and Food sciences, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia, in order to evaluate the present model. The simulation results obtained from this model were compared with the measured data. The main results of this research showed that there are slight differences between the measured and predicted values of the elements studied, which is resultant from the change of some factors considered constants in the model such as the sky clearance, wind velocity and the salt concentration in the water in the basin of the solar still. It can be concluded that the present model can be used to estimate the average total solar radiation and the thermal behavior of the solar still in any area with consideration to the geographical location.

Keywords: mathematical model, sea water, distillation, solar radiation

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Authors: Hieu Duy Nguyen, Chitsan Lin Jr., Dung Duc Tran

Abstract:

Nowadays, drought and salinity intrusion becomes a severe problem in the Lower Mekong region due to climate change, especially in coastal provinces. Freshwater resources are decreased due to sea-level rise and the decline in water flow from upstream in the dry season. The combination of the above issues can lead to many effects on the environment and human health in affected areas such as the pathological of digestive or decreased the immune system. Tidal cycle and upstream flows are the two main factors affecting the saline intrusion process and the former salt-wedge in the estuary. Under suitable conditions, salt-wedge can be going further upstream under the water surface and affected groundwater. In order to have a proper plan for the mitigation of the above adverse effects, we need to understand the characteristics of this process. In this study, 3D model is used to investigate the movement of salt-wedge under different conditions of tidal and flow discharge. The salinity in the vertical profile is also measured in the dry season of 2017 and 2018 for model calibrating. The data has proved that there is the presence of salt-wedge in the study area. The obtained results will help strategic planners to use and preserve water resources more effectively and serve as a basis for new research directions on saline intrusion and human health.

Keywords: salt-wedge, salinity intrusion, human health, 3D model

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Authors: Pattra Pukdeekiat, Siriluk Ruangrungrote

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This work was originated to precisely determine direct solar radiation by using atmospheric physics models since the accurate prediction of solar radiation is necessary and useful for solar energy applications including atmospheric research. The possible models and techniques for a calculation of regional direct solar radiation were challenging and compulsory for the case of unavailable instrumental measurement. The investigation was mathematically governed by six astronomical parameters i.e. declination (δ), hour angle (ω), solar time, solar zenith angle (θz), extraterrestrial radiation (Iso) and eccentricity (E0) along with two atmospheric parameters i.e. air mass (mr) and dew point temperature at Bangna meteorological station (13.67° N, 100.61° E) in Bangkok, Thailand. Analyses of five models of solar radiation determination with the assumption of clear sky were applied accompanied by three statistical tests: Mean Bias Difference (MBD), Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD) and Coefficient of determination (R2) in order to validate the accuracy of obtainable results. The calculated direct solar radiation was in a range of 491-505 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 8.41% for winter and 532-540 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 4.89% for summer 2014. Additionally, dataset of seven continuous days, representing both seasons were considered with the MBD, RMSD and R2 of -0.08, 0.25, 0.86 and -0.14, 0.35, 3.29, respectively, which belong to Kumar model for winter and CSR model for summer. In summary, the determination of direct solar radiation based on atmospheric models and empirical equations could advantageously provide immediate and reliable values of the solar components for any site in the region without a constraint of actual measurement.

Keywords: atmospheric physics models, astronomical parameters, atmospheric parameters, clear sky condition

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Authors: Ida Ngurah

Abstract:

Indonesia is one of the most prone disaster countries, which has earthquake, tsunami or high wave, flood and landslide as well as volcano eruption and drought. Disaster risk reduction has been developing extensively and comprehensively, particularly after tsunami hit in 2004. Yet, saving people live including children and youth from disaster risk is still far from succeed. Poor management of environment, poor development of policy and high level of corruption has become challenges for Indonesia to save its people from disaster impact. Indonesia is struggling to ensure its future best investment, children and youth to have better protection when disaster strike in school hours and have basic knowledge on disaster risk reduction. The program of safe school is being initiated and developed by Plan Indonesia since 2010, yet this effort still needs to be elaborated. This paper is reviewing sporadic safe school programs that have been implemented or currently being implemented Plan Indonesia in few areas of Indonesia, including both rural and urban setting. Methods used are in-depth interview with dedicated person for the program from Plan Indonesia and its implementing patners and analysis of project documents. The review includes program’s goal and objectives, implementation activity, result and achievement as well as its monitoring and evaluation scheme. Moreover, paper will be showing challenges, lesson learned and best practices of the program. Eventually, paper will come up with recommendation for strategy for better implementation of safe school program in Indonesia.

Keywords: disaster impact, safe school, programs, children, youth

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Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

Abstract:

On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 149