Search results for: mediation factors

Authors: Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud

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The surge in unemployment among nations and the understanding of the important role played by entrepreneurship in job creation by researchers and policy makers have steered to the postulation that entrepreneurship activities can be spurred through the development of entrepreneurial intentions. Notwithstanding, entrepreneurial intention studies are very scarce in the developing world especially in the African continent. Even among the developed countries, studies of entrepreneurial intention were mostly focused on the undergraduate candidates. This paper therefore, aimed at filling the gap by employing the descriptive quantitative survey method to examine the entrepreneurial intention of 158 Nigerian postgraduate candidates of Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), comprising 46 Masters and 112 PhD candidates who are studying in the College of Business (COB), College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) and College of Legal, Government and International Studies (COLGIS), the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model was used due its reputable validity, with attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control as the independent variables. Preliminary analysis and data screening were conducted which qualifies the data to the multivariate analysis assumptions. The reliability test was performed using the Cronbach Alpha method which shows all variables as reliable with a value of >0.70. However, the data is free from the multicollinearity issue with all factors in the Pearson correlation having <0.9 value and the VIF having <10. Regression analysis has shown the sufficiency and predictive capability of the TPB model to entrepreneurship intention with attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control being positively and significantly related to the entrepreneurial intention of Nigerian postgraduates. Considering the Beta values, perceived behavioural control emerged as the strongest factor that influences the postgraduates entrepreneurial intention. Developing countries are therefore, recommended to make efforts in redesigning their entrepreneurship development policies to fit candidates of the highest level of academia. Further studies should replicate in a larger sample that comprises more than one university and more than one developing country.

Keywords: attitude, entrepreneurial intention, Nigeria, perceived behavioral control, postgraduates, subjective norms

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Authors: Fulufhelo Amanda Doboro, Kgomotso Sebeko, Stephen Njiro, Moritz Van Vuuren

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Ovine herpesvirus 2 (OvHV-2) genome obtained from the lymphopblastoid cell line of a BJ1035 cow was recently sequenced in the United States of America (USA). Information on the sequences of OvHV-2 genes obtained from South African strains from bovine or other African countries and molecular characterization of OvHV-2 is not documented. Present investigation provides information on the nucleotide and derived amino acid sequences and genetic diversity of Ov 7, Ov 8 ex2, ORF 27 and ORF 73 genes, of these genes from OvHV-2 strains circulating in South Africa. Gene-specific primers were designed and used for PCR of DNA extracted from 42 bovine blood samples that previously tested positive for OvHV-2. The expected PCR products of 495 bp, 253 bp, 890 bp and 1632 bp respectively for Ov 7, Ov 8 ex2, ORF 27 and ORF 73 genes were sequenced and multiple sequence analysis done on the selected regions of the sequenced PCR products. Two genotypes for ORF 27 and ORF 73 gene sequences, and three genotypes for Ov 7 and Ov 8 ex2 gene sequences were identified, and similar groupings for the derived amino acid sequences were obtained for each gene. Nucleotide and amino acid sequence variations that led to the identification of the different genotypes included SNPs, deletions and insertions. Sequence analysis of Ov 7 and ORF 27 genes revealed variations that distinguished between sequences from SA and reference OvHV-2 strains. The implication of geographic origin among SA sequences was difficult to evaluate because of random distribution of genotypes in the different provinces, for each gene. However, socio-economic factors such as migration of people with animals, or transportation of animals for agricultural or business use from one province to another are most likely to be responsible for this observation. The sequence variations observed in this study have no impact on the antibody binding activities of glycoproteins encoded by Ov 7, Ov 8 ex2 and ORF 27 genes, as determined by prediction of the presence of B cell epitopes using BepiPred 1.0. The findings of this study will be used for selection of gene candidates for the development of diagnostic assays and vaccine development as well.

Keywords: amino acid, genetic diversity, genes, nucleotide

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Authors: Ruichong Zhang, Fadi Sawaged, Lotfi Gargab

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This paper introduces a wave-based approach for system identification of high-rise building structures with a pair of seismic recordings, which can be used to evaluate structural integrity and detect damage in post-earthquake structural condition assessment. The fundamental of the approach is based on wave features of generalized impulse and frequency response functions (GIRF and GFRF), i.e., wave responses at one structural location to an impulsive motion at another reference location in time and frequency domains respectively. With a pair of seismic recordings at the two locations, GFRF is obtainable as Fourier spectral ratio of the two recordings, and GIRF is then found with the inverse Fourier transformation of GFRF. With an appropriate continuous model for the structure, a closed-form solution of GFRF, and subsequent GIRF, can also be found in terms of wave transmission and reflection coefficients, which are related to structural physical properties above the impulse location. Matching the two sets of GFRF and/or GIRF from recordings and the model helps identify structural parameters such as wave velocity or shear modulus. For illustration, this study examines ten-story Millikan Library in Pasadena, California with recordings of Yorba Linda earthquake of September 3, 2002. The building is modelled as piecewise continuous layers, with which GFRF is derived as function of such building parameters as impedance, cross-sectional area, and damping. GIRF can then be found in closed form for some special cases and numerically in general. Not only does this study reveal the influential factors of building parameters in wave features of GIRF and GRFR, it also shows some system-identification results, which are consistent with other vibration- and wave-based results. Finally, this paper discusses the effectiveness of the proposed model in system identification.

Keywords: wave-based approach, seismic responses of buildings, wave propagation in structures, construction

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Authors: Raana Babadi Fathipour

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The production of dairy holds significant importance in the sustenance of billions of individuals worldwide, as they rely on milk and its derived products for daily consumption. In addition to being a source of essential nutrients crucial for human well-being, such as proteins, fats, vitamins, and minerals; dairy items are witnessing an increasing demand worldwide. Amongst all the factors contributing to the quality and safety assurance of dairy products, the strong focus lies on maintaining high standards in raw milk procurement. Raw milk serves as an externally nutritious medium for various microorganisms due to its inherent properties. This poses a considerable challenge for the dairy industry in ensuring that microbial contamination is minimized throughout every stage of the value chain. Despite implementing diverse process technologies—both conventional and innovative—the occurrence of microbial spoilage still results in substantial losses within this industry context. Moreover, milk and dairy products have been associated with numerous cases of foodborne illnesses across the globe. Various pathogens such as Salmonella serovars, Campylobacter spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, and enterotoxin producing Staphylococcus aureus are commonly identified as the culprits behind these outbreaks in the dairy industry. The effective management of food safety within this sector necessitates a proactive and risk-based approach to reform. However, this strategy presents difficulties for developing nations where informal value chains dominate the dairy sector. Whether operating on a small or large scale or falling within formal or informal realms, it is imperative that the dairy industry adheres to principles of good hygiene practices and good manufacturing practices. Additionally, identifying and managing potential sources of contamination is crucial in mitigating challenges pertaining to quality and safety precautions.

Keywords: dairy value chain, microbial contamination, food safety, hygiene

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Authors: Maximo Cozzetti

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The aim is to evaluate the capability of the 'Siberian Husky' (FCI-Standard Nº 270) breed of the common dog (Canis lupus familiaris) to detect terminally-ill human patients undergoing palliative care. A total of 49 such patients that fulfill the 'National Scientific and Technical Research Council–Ethical Principles for the Behavior of the Scientific and Technical Investigator' policy, (mainly affected with Stage IV Hodgkin lymphoma or Stage IV Carcinoma, though various other terminal diseases were present) and 49 controls were enrolled. A total of 13 specimens of Siberian Huskies (Canis lupus familiaris FCI – Standard Nº 270) were selected. After a conditioning training regime in which the canines were rewarded when identifying terminally ill patients and excluding the control subjects, a double-blind experiment was conducted in which the canines were presented with a previously unknown patient through an olfactory-proof plexiglass window for 2-minute intervals. The test subjects correctly identified 89.80% of the humans as either ‘ill’ or ‘healthy’. It is important to note that both groups of humans were selected considering and preventing confounding and self-identifying factors such as age, ethnicity, clothing, posture, skin color, alopecia (chemotherapy-induced or otherwise), etc. The olfactory-proofing of the test area rules out the use of the sense of smell to detect distinctive drugs or bodily odors that may be associated with terminal diseases. Thus, the Siberian Husky breed of the common dog shows the visual capability to detect and identify terminally ill patients undergoing palliative care regardless of age, posture, and quantity of hair. Though the capability of the breed of dog to detect terminally-ill patients was observed thoroughly during the course of the experiments, the exact process by which the canines identify the test subjects remains unknown and further research is encouraged.

Keywords: Canis lupus familiaris, Siberian Husky, visual identification of terminall illness, FCI-Standard Nº270

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Authors: B. J. Babalola, M. B. Shongwe

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Spark Plasma Sintering technique is a novel processing method that produces limited grain growth and highly dense variety of materials; alloys, superalloys, and carbides just to mention a few. However, initial particle size and spark plasma sintering parameters are factors which influence the grain growth and mechanical properties of sintered materials. Ni-Cr alloys are regarded as the most promising alloys for aerospace turbine blades, owing to the fact that they meet the basic requirements of desirable mechanical strength at high temperatures and good resistance to oxidation. The conventional method of producing this alloy often results in excessive grain growth and porosity levels that are detrimental to its mechanical properties. The effect of sintering temperature was evaluated on the microstructure and mechanical properties of the nanostructured Ni-17Cr alloy. Nickel and chromium powder were milled using high energy ball milling independently for 30 hours, milling speed of 400 revs/min and ball to powder ratio (BPR) of 10:1. The milled powders were mixed in the composition of Nickel having 83 wt % and chromium, 17 wt %. This was sintered at varied temperatures from 800°C, 900°C, 1000°C, 1100°C and 1200°C. The structural characteristics such as porosity, grain size, fracture surface and hardness were analyzed by scan electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction, Archimedes densitometry, micro-hardness tester. The corresponding results indicated an increase in the densification and hardness property of the alloy as the temperature increases. The residual porosity of the alloy reduces with respect to the sintering temperature and in contrast, the grain size was enhanced. The study of the mechanical properties, including hardness, densification shows that optimum properties were obtained for the sintering temperature of 1100°C. The advantages of high sinterability of Ni-17Cr alloy using milled powders and microstructural details were discussed.

Keywords: densification, grain growth, milling, nanostructured materials, sintering temperature

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Authors: Xuan Hua Huang, Shu Fen Wu, Yi Ting Huang, Pi Yueh Lee

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Background: In Taiwan, the Taiwan healthcare care Indicator Series regards the rate of hospital readmission as an important indicator of healthcare quality. Unplanned readmission not only effects patient’s condition but also increase healthcare utilization rate and healthcare costs. Purpose: The purpose of this study was explored the effects of adult unplanned readmission within 14 days of discharge at a regional teaching hospital in South Taiwan. Methods: The retrospectively review design was used. A total 495 participants of unplanned readmissions and 878 of non-readmissions within 14 days recruited from a regional teaching hospital in Southern Taiwan. The instruments used included the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and demographic characteristics, and disease-related variables. Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS version 22.0. The descriptive statistics were used (means, standard deviations, and percentage) and the inferential statistics were used T-test, Chi-square test and Logistic regression. Results: The unplanned readmissions within 14 days rate was 36%. The majorities were 268 males (54.1%), aged >65 were 318 (64.2%), and mean age was 68.8±14.65 years (23-98years). The mean score for the comorbidities was 3.77±2.73. The top three diagnosed of the readmission were digestive diseases (32.7%), respiratory diseases (15.2%), and genitourinary diseases (10.5%). There were significant relationships among the gender, age, marriage, comorbidity status, and discharge planning services (χ2: 3.816-16.474, p: 0.051~0.000). Logistic regression analysis showed that old age (OR = 1.012, 95% CI: 1.003, 1.021), had the multi-morbidity (OR = 0.712~4.040, 95% CI: 0.559~8.522), had been consult with discharge planning services (OR = 1.696, 95% CI: 1.105, 2.061) have a higher risk of readmission. Conclusions: This study finds that multi-morbidity was independent risk factor for unplanned readmissions at 14 days, recommended that the interventional treatment of the medical team be provided to provide integrated care for multi-morbidity to improve the patient's self-care ability and reduce the 14-day unplanned readmission rate.

Keywords: unplanned readmission, comorbidities, Charlson comorbidity index, logistic regression

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Authors: Mst. Nilufa Sultana, Shatirah Akib, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf, Mohamed Roseli Zainal Abidin

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Most people today are aware that global Climate change, is not just a scientific theory but also a fact with worldwide consequences. Global climate change is due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, high population growth and current vulnerability of the climatic condition. Water is becoming scarce as a result of global climate change. To mitigate the problem arising due to global climate change and its drought effect, harvesting rainwater from green roofs, an environmentally-friendly and versatile technology, is becoming one of the best assessment criteria and gaining attention in Malaysia. This paper addresses the sustainability of green roofs and examines the quality of water harvested from green roofs in comparison to rainwater. The factors that affect the quality of such water, taking into account, for example, roofing materials, climatic conditions, the frequency of rainfall frequency and the first flush. A green roof was installed on the Humid Tropic Centre (HTC) is a place of the study on monitoring program for urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA), Eco-Hydrological Project in Kualalumpur, and the rainwater was harvested and evaluated on the basis of four parameters i.e., conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and temperature. These parameters were found to fall between Class I and Class III of the Interim National Water Quality Standards (INWQS) and the Water Quality Index (WQI). Some preliminary treatment such as disinfection and filtration could likely to improve the value of these parameters to class I. This review paper clearly indicates that there is a need for more research to address other microbiological and chemical quality parameters to ensure that the harvested water is suitable for use potable water for domestic purposes. The change in all physical, chemical and microbiological parameters with respect to storage time will be a major focus of future studies in this field.

Keywords: Green roofs, INWQS, MSMA-SME, rainwater harvesting, water treatment, water quality parameter, WQI

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Authors: Judith Mogouong, Philippe Constant, Robert Lavallee, Claude Guertin

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The emerald ash borer (EAB) is an exotic wood borer insect native from China, which is associated with important environmental and economic damages in North America. Beetles are known to be vectors of microbial communities related to their adaptive capacities. It is now established that environmental stress factors may induce physiological events on the host trees, such as phytochemical changes. Consequently, that may affect the establishment comportment of herbivorous insect. Considering the number of insects collected on ash trees (insects’ density) as an abiotic factor related to stress damage, the aim of our study was to explore the dynamic of EAB gut microbial community genome (microbiome) when facing that factor and to monitor its diversity. Insects were trapped using specific green Lindgren© traps. A gradient of the captured insect population along the St. Lawrence River was used to create three levels of insects’ density (low, intermediate, and high). After dissection, total DNA extracted from insect guts of each level has been sent for amplicon sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA gene and fungal ITS2 region. The composition of microbial communities among sample appeared largely diversified with the Simpson index significantly different across the three levels of density for bacteria. Add to that; bacteria were represented by seven phyla and twelve classes, whereas fungi were represented by two phyla and seven known classes. Using principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) based on Bray Curtis distances of 16S rRNA sequences, we observed a significant variation between the structure of the bacterial communities depending on insects’ density. Moreover, the analysis showed significant correlations between some bacterial taxa and the three classes of insects’ density. This study is the first to present a complete overview of the bacterial and fungal communities associated with the gut of EAB base on culture-independent methods, and to correlate those communities with a potential stress factor of the host trees.

Keywords: gut microbiome, DNA, 16S rRNA sequences, emerald ash borer

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Authors: Marta Skwarecka, Patrycja Bloch, Rafal Walkusz, Oliwia Urbanowicz, Grzegorz Zielinski, Sabina Zoledowska, Dawid Nidzworski

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Upper respiratory tract infections are one of the most common reasons for visiting a general doctor. Streptococci are the most common bacterial etiological factors in these infections. There are many different types of Streptococci and infections vary in severity from mild throat infections to pneumonia. For example, S. pyogenes mainly contributes to acute pharyngitis, palatine tonsils and scarlet fever, whereas S. Streptococcus pneumoniae is responsible for several invasive diseases like sepsis, meningitis or pneumonia with high mortality and dangerous complications. There are only a few diagnostic tests designed for detection Streptococci from the infected throat of patients. However, they are mostly based on lateral flow techniques, and they are not used as a standard due to their low sensitivity. The diagnostic standard is to culture patients throat swab on semi selective media in order to multiply pure etiological agent of infection and subsequently to perform antibiogram, which takes several days from the patients visit in the clinic. Therefore, the aim of our studies is to develop and implement to the market a Point of Care device for the rapid identification of Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus pneumoniae with simultaneous identification of antibiotic resistance genes. In the course of our research, we successfully selected genes for to-species identification of Streptococci and genes encoding antibiotic resistance proteins. We have developed a reaction to amplify these genes, which allows detecting the presence of S. pyogenes or S. pneumoniae followed by testing their resistance to erythromycin, chloramphenicol and tetracycline. What is more, the detection of β-lactamase-encoding genes that could protect Streptococci against antibiotics from the ampicillin group, which are widely used in the treatment of this type of infection is also developed. The test is carried out directly from the patients' swab, and the results are available after 20 to 30 minutes after sample subjection, which could be performed during the medical visit.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, Streptococci, respiratory infections, diagnostic test

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Authors: Javad Sarvestan, Zdenek Svoboda

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Force-time (F-T) curvature characteristics are globally referenced as the main indicators of athletic jump performance. Nevertheless, to the best of authors’ knowledge, no investigation tried to deeply study the relationship between F-T curve variables and real-game jump performance among elite volleyball players. To this end, this study was designated to investigate the association between F-T curve variables, including movement timings, force, velocity, power, rate of force development (RFD), modified reactive strength index (RSImod), and net impulse with spike jump height during real-game circumstances. Twelve young elite volleyball players performed 3 countermovement jump (CMJ) and 3 spike jump in real-game circumstances with 1-minute rest intervals to prevent fatigue. Shapiro-Wilk statistical test illustrated the normality of data distribution, and Pearson’s product correlation test portrayed a significant correlation between CMJ height and peak RFD (0.85), average RFD (r=0.81), RSImod (r=0.88) and concentric net impulse (r=0.98), and also significant correlation between spike jump height and peak RFD (0.73), average RFD (r=0.80), RSImod (r=0.62) and concentric net impulse (r=0.71). Multiple regression analysis also reported that these factors have a strong contribution in predicting of CMJ (98%) and spike jump (77%) heights. Outcomes of this study confirm that the RFD, concentric net impulse, and RSImod values could precisely monitor and track the volleyball attackers’ explosive strength, muscular stretch-shortening cycle function efficiency, and ultimate spike jump height. To this effect, volleyball coaches and trainers are advised to have an in-depth focus on their athletes’ progression or the impacts of strength trainings by observing and chasing the F-T curve variables such as RFD, net impulse, and RSImod.

Keywords: net impulse, reactive strength index, rate of force development, stretch-shortening cycle

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Authors: Birgit Schmid, Brigitte Liebig, Susanne Burren, Maritza Le Breton, Martin Boehnel, Celestina Porta

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Internationalization of students is part of the agenda of many universities worldwide. Yet, how well do universities achieve to guarantee educational success for male and female students of migrant background? This contribution aims on analyzing the effects of the Swiss university environment on perceived educational outcome of migrant students from a gender sensitive perspective. Social selectivity and gender inequalities strongly influence students’ access and success at universities. However, the complex interaction between universities and their disciplinary environments, and educational success of migrant students of both sex remains rarely examined so far. Starting from an intersectional perspective and neo-institutional approaches on higher education organizations, this contribution addresses formal/informal factors in the university environment in its impact on male/female students’ perception of well-being, success and dropout motivation. The paper starts from a most recent Swiss online-survey of Bachelor-students in two Universities of Applied Science and a University of Education in Switzerland. It compares students’ perspectives in four large BA degree courses with different male/female ratio, i.e. educational science, technical/computer science, economy, and social work (N=9`608). Results highlight the complex interplay of gender, migrant background and further dimensions of social differentiation on students’ perception in these different fields of education. Further, they illustrate correlations between students’ perception of discriminatory contexts, poor ratings of social integration and study success, as well a higher rate of dropout ideas. The paper lines out, that formal aspects of internationalization are less important for successfully integrating male/female migrant students than informal university conditions, such as a culture of diversity, which has to become integral part of internationalization strategies.

Keywords: gender and migration, higher education, internationalization, success

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Authors: Tomoko Adachi

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Although, thirty years have passed since the enactment of Equal Employment Opportunity Law, contemporary Japanese citizens still have difficulties in balancing work and life responsibilities. Not a few women give up their professional career after childbirth, meanwhile, men spend longer hours at work and have minimal time for their families. One of the reasons should be attributed to the traditional gender role ideas which have been entrenched even among younger generations. In an attempt to explore the psychological factors which enable work-life balance, the current study investigated attitudes of Japanese youth toward work-life balance and their relationships with gender role attitudes. Participants were 948 Japanese (165 men and 783 women) with the average age of 19.60 (SD=1.18). As for measure, a scale developed and modified by the author was used to assess attitudes toward work-life balance and Short form of the Scale of Egalitarian Sex Role Attitudes (SESRA-S) was used to assess traditional vs. egalitarian gender role attitudes. The results showed clear gender differences as follows. First, examination of attitudes toward work-life balance showed that more than 90% of men preferred to continue their work without child care interruption. Meanwhile, women showed various attitudes, with around 50% wanted to have child care interruption, 40% wanted to continue working without it, while, 10% wanted to work until childbirth. Secondly, gender comparison of egalitarian gender role attitudes showed that women possessed equal ideas on gender roles than men. Thirdly, relationships between gender role attitudes and attitudes for work-life balance were examined. No significant relationship between the two was found among men, which implies that regardless of the gender role attitudes, most of the men thought that continuing work without child care interruption was the ideal path for them. On the other hand, the effects of gender role attitudes were apparent among women, showing that women with egalitarian attitudes preferred to continue their professional career even after childbirth. The present study revealed gender difference in the idea about work-life balance with men possessing traditional ideas of 'men should be a bread winner'. Implications for support on young adults to reconcile work and family responsibilities were discussed.

Keywords: career path, gender role attitudes, work-life balance, youth

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Authors: Adedayo Racheal Agbonna

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The rising level of graduate unemployment in Nigeria has brought about the introduction of entrepreneurship education as a career option for self–reliance and self-employment. Sequel to this, it is important to have an understanding of the determining factors of entrepreneurial intention. Therefore this research empirically investigated the influence of entrepreneurship education on entrepreneurial intention of undergraduate students of selected universities in Ogun State, Nigeria. The study is significant to researchers, university policy makers, and the government. Survey research design was adopted in the study. The population consisted of 17,659 final year undergraduate students universities in Ogun State. The study adopted stratified and random sampling technique. The table of sample size determination was used to determine the sample size for this study at 95% confidence level and 5% margin error to arrive at a sample size of 1877 respondents. The elements of population were 400 level students of the selected universities. A structured questionnaire titled 'Entrepreneurship Education and students’ Entrepreneurial intention' was administered. The result of the reliability test had the following values 0.716, 0.907 and 0.949 for infrastructure, perceived university support, and entrepreneurial intention respectively. In the same vein, from the construct validity test, the following values were obtained 0.711, 0.663 and 0.759 for infrastructure, perceived university support and entrepreneurial intention respectively. Findings of this study revealed that each of the entrepreneurship education variables significantly affected intention University infrastructure B= -1.200, R²=0.679, F (₁,₁₈₇₅) = 3958.345, P < 0.05) Perceived University Support B= -1.027, R²=0.502, F(₁,₁₈₇₅) = 1924.612, P < 0.05). The perception of respondents in public university and private university on entrepreneurship education have a statistically significant difference [F(₁,₁₈₇₅) = 134.614, p < 0.05) α F(₁,₁₈₇₅) = 363.439]. The study concluded that entrepreneurship education positively influenced entrepreneurial intention of undergraduate students in Ogun State, Nigeria. Also, university infrastructure and perceived university support have negative and significant effect on entrepreneurial intention. The study recommended that to promote entrepreneurial intention of university undergraduate students, infrastructures and the university support that can arouse entrepreneurial intention of students should be put in place.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intention, perceived university support, university infrastructure

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Authors: Masbubul Ishtiaque Ahmed

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Food chain contamination by heavy metals has become a critical issue in recent years because of their potential accumulation in bio systems through contaminated water, soil and irrigation water. Industrial discharge, fertilizers, contaminated irrigation water, fossil fuels, sewage sludge and municipality wastes are the major sources of heavy metal contamination in soils and subsequent uptake by crops. The main objectives of this project were to determine the levels of minerals, trace elements and heavy metals in major foods and beverages consumed by the poor and non-poor households of Dhaka city and assess the dietary risk exposure to heavy metal and trace metal contamination and potential health implications as well as recommendations for action. Heavy metals are naturally occurring elements that have a high atomic weight and a density of at least 5 times greater than that of water. Their multiple industrial, domestic, agricultural, medical and technological applications have led to their wide distribution in the environment; raising concerns over their potential effects on human health and the environment. Their toxicity depends on several factors including the dose, route of exposure, and chemical species, as well as the age, gender, genetics, and nutritional status of exposed individuals. Because of their high degree of toxicity, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, and mercury rank among the priority metals that are of public health significance. These metallic elements are considered systemic toxicants that are known to induce multiple organ damage, even at lower levels of exposure. This review provides an analysis of their environmental occurrence, production and use, potential for human exposure, and molecular mechanisms of toxicity, and carcinogenicity.

Keywords: food chain, determine the levels of minerals, trace elements, heavy metals, production and use, human exposure, toxicity, carcinogenicity

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Authors: Safaa H. Sindi, Michael Roe

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This project divides supply chain (SC) models into seven Eras, according to the evolution of the market’s needs throughout time. The five earliest Eras describe the emergence of supply chains, while the last two Eras are to be created. Research objectives: The aim is to generate the two latest Eras with their respective models that focus on the consumable goods. Era Six contains the Optimal Multidimensional Matrix (OMM) that incorporates most characteristics of the SC and allocates them into four quarters (Agile, Lean, Leagile, and Basic SC). This will help companies, especially (SMEs) plan their optimal SC route. Era Seven creates an Automated Multidimensional Model (AMM) which upgrades the matrix of Era six, as it accounts for all the supply chain factors (i.e. Offshoring, sourcing, risk) into an interactive system with Heuristic Learning that helps larger companies and industries to select the best SC model for their market. Methodologies: The data collection is based on a Fuzzy-Delphi study that analyses statements using Fuzzy Logic. The first round of Delphi study will contain statements (fuzzy rules) about the matrix of Era six. The second round of Delphi contains the feedback given from the first round and so on. Preliminary findings: both models are applicable, Matrix of Era six reduces the complexity of choosing the best SC model for SMEs by helping them identify the best strategy of Basic SC, Lean, Agile and Leagile SC; that’s tailored to their needs. The interactive heuristic learning in the AMM of Era seven will help mitigate error and aid large companies to identify and re-strategize the best SC model and distribution system for their market and commodity, hence increasing efficiency. Potential contributions to the literature: The problematic issue facing many companies is to decide which SC model or strategy to incorporate, due to the many models and definitions developed over the years. This research simplifies this by putting most definition in a template and most models in the Matrix of era six. This research is original as the division of SC into Eras, the Matrix of Era six (OMM) with Fuzzy-Delphi and Heuristic Learning in the AMM of Era seven provides a synergy of tools that were not combined before in the area of SC. Additionally the OMM of Era six is unique as it combines most characteristics of the SC, which is an original concept in itself.

Keywords: Leagile, automation, heuristic learning, supply chain models

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Authors: Ramanish Ravishankar, Azar Hussain, Mahmoud Loubani, Mubarak Chaudhry

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Background and Aims: Currently, there are no strict guidelines in cardiopulmonary bypass temperature management in cardiac surgery not involving the aortic arch. This study aims to compare patient outcomes undergoing mild hypothermia and normothermia. The aim of this study was to compare patient outcomes between mild hypothermia and normothermia undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery not involving the aortic arch. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study from January 2015 until May 2023. Patients who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass temperatures ≥32oC were included and stratified into mild hypothermia (32oC – 35oC) and normothermia (>35oC) cohorts. Propensity matching was applied through the nearest neighbour method (1:1) using the risk factors detailed in the EuroScore using RStudio. The primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes included post-op stay, intensive care unit readmission, re-admission, stroke, and renal complications. Patients who had major aortic surgery and off-pump operations were excluded. Results: Each cohort had 1675 patients. There was a significant increase in overall mortality with the mild hypothermia cohort (3.59% vs. 2.32%; p=0.04912). There was also a greater stroke incidence (2.09% vs. 1.13%; p=0.0396) and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) risk (3.1% vs. 1.49%; p=0.0027). There was no significant difference in renal complications (9.13% vs. 7.88%; p=0.2155). Conclusions: Patient’s who underwent mild hypothermia during cardiopulmonary bypass have a significantly greater mortality, stroke, and transient ischaemic attack incidence. Mild hypothermia does not appear to provide any benefit over normothermia and does not appear to provide any neuroprotective benefits. This shows different results to that of other major studies; further trials and studies need to be conducted to reach a consensus.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, therapeutic hypothermia, neuroprotection, cardiopulmonary bypass

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Authors: Danielle Katrina Santos, Koji Shimada

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Environmentally-friendly agriculture has been promoted for over two decades as a response to the environmental challenges brought by climate change and biological loss. Located above the equator, it is possible that Japan may benefit from future climate change, yet Japan is also a rarely developed country located in the Asian Monsoon climate region, making it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this regard, the Japanese government has initiated policies to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change through the promotion and popularization of environmentally-friendly farming practices. This study aims to determine profit efficiency among environmentally-friendly rice farmers in Shiga Prefecture using the Stochastic Frontier Approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 66 farmers from top rice-producing cities through a structured questionnaire. Results showed that the gross farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was higher by JPY 316,223.00/ha. Production costs were also found to be higher among environmentally-friendly rice farmers, especially on labor costs, which accounted for 32% of the total rice production cost. The resulting net farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was only higher by JPY 18,044/ha. Results from the stochastic frontier analysis further showed that the profit efficiency of conventional farmers was only 69% as compared to environmentally-friendly rice farmers who had a profit efficiency of 76%. Furthermore, environmentally-friendly agriculture participation, other types of subsidy, educational level, and farm size were significant factors positively influencing profit efficiency. The study concluded that substitution of environmentally-friendly agriculture for conventional rice farming would result in an increased profit efficiency due to the direct payment subsidy and price premium received. The direct government policies that would strengthen the popularization of environmentally-friendly agriculture to increase the production of environmentally-friendly products and reduce pollution load to the Lake Biwa ecosystem.

Keywords: profit efficiency, environmentally-friendly agriculture, rice farmers, direct payment subsidies

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Authors: Mircan Kaya

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A multi-disciplinary approach is required in any intervention project for historical monuments. Due to the complexity of their geometry, the variable and unpredictable characteristics of original materials used in their creation, heritage structures are peculiar. Their histories are often complex, and they require correct diagnoses to decide on the techniques of intervention. This approach should not only combine technical aspects but also historical research that may help discover phenomena involving structural issues, and acquire a knowledge of the structure on its concept, method of construction, previous interventions, process of damage, and its current state. In addition to the traditional techniques like bed joint reinforcement, the repairing, strengthening and restoration of historical buildings may require several other modern methods which may be described as innovative techniques like pre-stressing and post-tensioning, use of shape memory alloy devices and shock transmission units, shoring, drilling, and the use of stainless steel or titanium. Regardless of the method to be incorporated in the strengthening process, which can be traditional or innovative, it is crucial to recognize that structural strengthening is the process of upgrading the structural system of the existing building with the aim of improving its performance under existing and additional loads like seismic loads. This process is much more complex than dealing with a new construction, owing to the fact that there are several unknown factors associated with the structural system. Material properties, load paths, previous interventions, existing reinforcement are especially important matters to be considered. There are several examples of seismic strengthening with traditional and innovative techniques around the world, which will be discussed in this paper in detail, including their pros and cons. Ultimately, however, the main idea underlying the philosophy of a successful intervention with the most appropriate techniques of strengthening a historic monument should be decided by a proper assessment of the specific needs of the building.

Keywords: bed joint reinforcement, historical monuments, post-tensioning, pre-stressing, seismic strengthening, shape memory alloy devices, shock transmitters, tie rods

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Authors: S. P. Singh, Priya, Komal Sajwan

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With the increasing spread of organic farming in India, costs, returns, efficiency, and social and environmental sustainability of organic vis-a-vis conventional farming systems have become topics of interest among agriculture scientists, economists, and policy analysts. A study on technical efficiency estimation under these farming systems, particularly in the Ganga River Basin, where the promotion of organic farming is incentivized, can help to understand whether the inputs are utilized to their maximum possible level and what measures can be taken to improve the efficiency. This paper, therefore, analyses the technical efficiency of wheat farms operating under organic and conventional farming systems. The study is based on a primary survey of 600 farms (300 organic ad 300 conventional) conducted in 2021 in two districts located in the Middle Ganga River Basin, India. Technical, managerial, and scale efficiencies of individual farms are estimated by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The per hectare value of wheat production is taken as an output variable, and values of seeds, human labour, machine cost, plant nutrients, farm yard manure (FYM), plant protection, and irrigation charges are considered input variables for estimating the farm-level efficiencies. The post-DEA analysis is conducted using the Tobit regression model to know the efficiency determining factors. The results show that technical efficiency is significantly higher in conventional than organic farming systems due to a higher gap in scale efficiency than managerial efficiency. Further, 9.8% conventional and only 1.0% organic farms are found operating at the most productive scale size (MPSS), and 99% organic and 81% conventional farms at IRS. Organic farms perform well in managerial efficiency, but their technical efficiency is lower than conventional farms, mainly due to their relatively lower scale size. The paper suggests that technical efficiency in organic wheat can be increased by upscaling the farm size by incentivizing group/collective farming in clusters.

Keywords: organic, conventional, technical efficiency, determinants, DEA, Tobit regression

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Authors: Clarisse Umutoni, Augustine Ayantunde, Matthew Turner, Germain J. Sawadogo

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Decentralized governance of natural resources is considered one of the key strategies for promoting sustainable management of natural resources at local level. The rationale behind decentralization of natural resources is that local populations are both better situated and more highly motivated than outside agencies to manage the resources in an ecologically and economically sustainable manner. Effective decentralized natural resource management requires strong local natural resource institutions. Therefore, strengthening local institutions governing natural resource management is essential to promoting strong participation of local communities in managing their resources. This paper investigated the existing local institutions (rules, norms and or local conventions) governing the management of natural resources and forms of community participation in the development of these natural resource institutions. Group discussions and individual interviews were conducted to collect data. Our findings showed significant variation within the study sites regarding the level of knowledge of existing local rules and norms governing the management of natural resources by the respondents. The results also show that participation was dominated by a small group of individuals, often community leaders and elites. The results suggest that women are marginalized. In general, factors which influence the level of participation include; age, year of residence in the community, gender and education level. This study also highlights the strengths of local natural resource institutions especially if enforced. Presently, the big challenge that faces the institutions governing natural resource use in the study area is the system of representativeness in the community in the development of local rules and norms as community leaders and household heads often dominate, which does not encourage active participation of community members. Therefore, for effective implementation of local natural resource institutions, the interest of key natural resource users should be taken into account. It is also important to promote rules and norms that attempt to protect or strengthen women’s access to natural resources in the community.

Keywords: decentralization, land use plan, local institutions, Mali

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Authors: Marta Błażkiewicz, Adam Konefał

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Currently, boron-neutron therapy is carried out mainly with the use of a neutron beam generated in research nuclear reactors. This fact limits the possibility of realization of a BNCT in centers distant from the above-mentioned reactors. Moreover, the number of active nuclear reactors in operation in the world is decreasing due to the limited lifetime of their operation and the lack of new installations. Therefore, the possibilities of carrying out boron-neutron therapy based on the neutron beam from the experimental reactor are shrinking. However, the use of nuclear power reactors for BNCT purposes is impossible due to the infrastructure not intended for radiotherapy. Therefore, a serious challenge is to find ways to perform boron-neutron therapy based on neutrons generated outside the research nuclear reactor. This work meets this challenge. Its goal is to develop a BNCT technique based on commonly available neutron sources such as Cf-252 and PuBe, which will enable the above-mentioned therapy in medical centers unrelated to nuclear research reactors. Advances in the field of neutron source fabrication make it possible to achieve strong neutron fluxes. The current stage of research focuses on the development of virtual models of the above-mentioned sources using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In this study, the GEANT4 tool was used, including the model for simulating neutron-matter interactions - High Precision Neutron. Models of neutron sources were developed on the basis of experimental verification based on the activation detectors method with the use of indium foil and the cadmium differentiation method allowing to separate the indium activation contribution from thermal and resonance neutrons. Due to the large number of factors affecting the result of the verification experiment, the 10% discrepancy between the simulation and experiment results was accepted.

Keywords: BNCT, virtual models, neutron sources, monte carlo, GEANT4, neutron activation detectors, gamma spectroscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Kayode O. Afolabi, Benson C. Iweriebor, Anthony I. Okoh, Larry C. Obi

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Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) is the major etiological viral agent of porcine multisystemic wasting syndrome (PWMS) and other porcine circovirus-associated diseases (PCVAD) of great economic importance in pig industry globally. In an effort to determine the status of swine herds in the Province as regarding the ‘small but powerful’ viral pathogen; a total of 375 blood, faecal and nasal swab samples were obtained from seven pig farms (commercial and communal) in Amathole, O.R. Tambo and Chris-Hani District Municipalities of Eastern Cape Province between the year 2015 and 2016. Three hundred and thirty nine (339) samples out of the total sample were subjected to molecular screening using PCV2 specific primers by conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Selected sequences were further analyzed and confirmed through genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses. The data obtained revealed that 15.93% of the screened samples (54/339) from the swine herds of the studied areas were positive for PCV2; while the severity of occurrence of the viral pathogen as observed at farm level ranges from approximately 5.6% to 60% in the studied farms. The Majority, precisely 15 out of 17 (88%) analyzed sequences were found clustering with other PCV2b reference strains in the phylogenetic analysis. More interestingly, two other sequences obtained were also found clustering within PCV2d genogroup, which is presently another fast-spreading genotype with observable higher virulence in global swine herds. This finding confirmed the presence of this all-important viral pathogen in pigs of the region; which could result in a serious outbreak of PCVAD and huge economic loss at the instances of triggering factors if no appropriate measures are taken to curb its spread effectively.

Keywords: pigs, polymerase chain reaction, porcine circovirus type 2, South Africa

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Authors: Zahra R. Almansoor

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Background: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI’s) and cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) are the main treatment methods used for patients with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) under the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. Yet many patients are left with residual symptoms or remit, so several other therapeutic approaches have been explored. Objective: The objective was to systematically review the available literature regarding the treatment efficacy of current and potential approaches and diagnostic strategies. Method: First, studies were examined concerning diagnosis, prognosis, and influencing factors. Then, one reviewer conducted a systematic search of six databases using stringent search terms. Results of studies exploring the efficacy of treatment interventions were analysed and compared separately for adults and children. This review was limited to randomised controlled trials (RCT’s) conducted from 2016 onwards, and an improved Y-BOCS (Yale- Brown obsessive compulsive scale) score was the primary outcome measure. Results: Technology-based interventions including internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) were deemed as potentially effective. Discrepancy remains about the benefits of SSRI use past one year, but potential medication adjuncts include amantadine. Treatments such as association splitting and family and mindfulness strategies also have future potential. Conclusion: A range of potential therapies exist, either as treatment adjuncts to current interventions or as sole therapies. To further improve efficacy, it may be necessary to remodel the current NICE stepped-care model, especially regarding the potential use of lower intensity, cheaper treatments, including iCBT. Although many interventions show promise, further research is warranted to confirm this.

Keywords: family and group treatment, mindfulness strategies, novel treatment approaches, standard treatment, technology-based interventions

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Authors: Saman Khan, Imrana Naseem

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Copper is an essential trace element required for pro-angiogenic co-factors including vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). Elevated levels of copper are found in various types of cancer including prostrate, colon, breast, lung and liver for angiogensis and metastasis. Therefore, targeting copper via copper-specific chelators in cancer cells can be developed as effective anticancer treatment strategy. In continuation of our pursuit to design and synthesize copper chelators, herein we opted for a reaction to incorporate di-(2-picolyl) amine in 3-(bromoacetyl) coumarin (parent backbone) for the synthesis of complex 1. We evaluated lipid peroxidation, protein carbonylation, ROS generation, DNA damage and consequent apoptosis by complex 1 in exogenously added Cu(II) in human peripheral lymphocytes (simulate malignancy condition). Results showed that Cu(II)-complex 1 interaction leads to cell proliferation inhibition, apoptosis, ROS generation and DNA damage in human lymphocytes, and these effects were abrogated by cuprous chelator neocuproine and ROS scavengers (thiourea, catalase, SOD). This indicates that complex 1 cytotoxicity is due to redox cycling of copper to generate ROS which leads to pro-oxidant cell death in cancer cells. To further confirm our hypothesis, using the rat model of diethylnitrosamine (DEN) induced hepatocellular carcinoma; we showed that complex 1 mediates DNA breakage and cell death in isolated carcinoma cells. Membrane permeant copper chelator, neocuproine, and ROS scavengers inhibited the complex 1-mediated cellular DNA degradation and apoptosis. In summary, complex 1 anticancer activity is due to its copper chelation capability. These results will provide copper chelation as an effective targeted cancer treatment strategy for selective cytotoxic action against malignant cells without affecting normal cells.

Keywords: cancer treatment, copper chelation, ROS generation, DNA damage, redox cycling, apoptosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Fiona Bei Na Tan, Glen Wen Kiat Ho, Ee Leen Liow, Li Yin Tan, Sean Wei Loong Ho

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Background: Shoulder arthroscopy is an increasingly common procedure. Pneumothorax post-shoulder arthroscopy is a rare complication. Objectives: Our aim is to highlight a case report of pneumothorax post shoulder arthroscopy and to conduct a literature review to evaluate the possible risk factors associated with developing a pneumothorax during or after shoulder arthroscopy. Case Report: We report the case of a 75-year-old male non-smoker who underwent left shoulder arthroscopy without regional anaesthesia and in the left lateral position. The general anaesthesia and surgery were uncomplicated. The patient was desaturated postoperatively and was found to have a pneumothorax on examination and chest X-ray. A chest tube drain was inserted promptly into the right chest. He had an uncomplicated postoperative course. Methods: PubMed Medline and Cochrane database search was carried out using the terms shoulder arthroplasty, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, and subcutaneous emphysema. We selected full-text articles written in English. Results: Thirty-two articles were identified and thoroughly reviewed. Based on our inclusion and exclusion criteria, 14 articles, which included 20 cases of pneumothorax during or after shoulder arthroscopy, were included. Eighty percent (16/20) of pneumothoraxes occurred postoperatively. In the articles that specify the side of pneumothorax, 91% (10/11) occur on the ipsilateral side of the arthroscopy. Eighty-eight percent (7/8) of pneumothoraxes occurred when subacromial decompression was performed. Fifty-six percent (9/16) occurred in patients placed in the lateral decubitus position. Only 30% (6/20) occurred in current or ex-smokers, and only 25% (5/20) had a pre-existing lung condition. Overall, of the articles that posit a mechanism, 75% (9/12) deem the pathogenesis to be multifactorial. Conclusion: The exact mechanism of pneumothorax is currently unknown. Awareness of this complication and timely recognition are important to prevent life-threatening sequelae. Surgeons should have a low threshold to obtain diagnostic plain radiographs in the event of clinical suspicion.

Keywords: rotator cuff repair, decompression, pressure, complication

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: M. S. Aparna, Pushparaj Shetty D.

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Nowadays social networking sites have become so popular that the producers or the sellers look for these sites as one of the best options to target the right audience to market their products. There are several tools available to monitor or analyze the social networks. Our task is to identify the right community web pages and find out the behavior analysis of the members by using these tools and formulate an appropriate strategy to market the products or services to achieve the set goals. The advertising becomes more effective when the information of the product/ services come from a known source. The strategy explores great buying influence in the audience on referral marketing. Our methodology proceeds with critical budget analysis and promotes viral influence propagation. In this context, we encompass the vital bits of budget evaluation such as the number of optimal seed nodes or primary influential users activated onset, an estimate coverage spread of nodes and maximum influence propagating distance from an initial seed to an end node. Our proposal for Buyer Prediction mathematical model arises from the urge to perform complex analysis when the probability density estimates of reliable factors are not known or difficult to calculate. Order Statistics and Buyer Prediction mapping function guarantee the selection of optimal influential users at each level. We exercise an efficient tactics of practicing community pages and user behavior to determine the product enthusiasts on social networks. Our approach is promising and should be an elementary choice when there is little or no prior knowledge on the distribution of potential buyers on social networks. In this strategy, product news propagates to influential users on or surrounding networks. By applying the same technique, a user can search friends who are capable to advise better or give referrals, if a product interests him.

Keywords: viral marketing, social network analysis, community web pages, buyer prediction, influence propagation, budget constraints

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: M. Vlahovic

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This paper presents a model of public finances, which combines three concepts: participatory budgeting, crowdfunding and blockchain technology. Participatory budgeting is defined as a process in which community members decide how to spend a part of community’s budget. Crowdfunding is a practice of funding a project by collecting small monetary contributions from a large number of people via an Internet platform. Blockchain technology is a distributed ledger that enables efficient and reliable transactions that are secure and transparent. In this hypothetical model, the government or authorities on local/regional level would set up a platform where they would propose public projects to citizens. Citizens would browse through projects and support or vote for those which they consider justified and necessary. In return, they would be entitled to a tax relief in the amount of their monetary contribution. Since the blockchain technology enables tracking of transactions, it can be used to mitigate corruption, money laundering and lack of transparency in public finances. Models of its application have already been created for e-voting, health records or land registries. By presenting a model of application of blockchain technology in public finances, this paper takes into consideration the potential of blockchain technology to disrupt governments and make processes more democratic, secure, transparent and efficient. The framework for this paper consists of multiple streams of research, including key concepts of direct democracy, public finance (especially the voluntary theory of public finance), information and communication technology, especially blockchain technology and crowdfunding. The framework defines rules of the game, basic conditions for the implementation of the model, benefits, potential problems and development perspectives. As an oversimplified map of a new form of public finances, the proposed model identifies primary factors, that influence the possibility of implementation of the model, and that could be tracked, measured and controlled in case of experimentation with the model.

Keywords: blockchain technology, distributed ledger, participatory budgeting, crowdfunding, direct democracy, internet platform, e-government, public finance

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Authors: Abdelmoniem A. Attaelmanan, Ahmed A. H. Siddig

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This study was conducted in light of continual global climate changes that projected increasing aridity, changes in soil fertility, and pollution. Plant growth and development largely depend on the combination of availing water and nutrients in the soil. Changes in the climate and atmospheric chemistry can cause serious effects on these growth factors. Plant carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and hydrogen (H) play a fundamental role in the maintenance of ecosystem structure and function. Hashab (Acacia senegal), which produces gum Arabic, supports dryland ecosystems in tropical zones by its potentiality to restore degraded soils; hence it is ecologically and economically important for the dry areas of sub-Saharan Africa. The study aims at investigating the effects of water stress (simulated drought) and poor soil type on Acacia senegal C, N, and H contents. Seven days old seedlings were assigned to the treatments in Split- plot design for four weeks. The main plot is irrigation interval (well-watered and water-stressed), and the subplot is soil types (silt and sand soils). Seedling's C%, N%, and H% were measured using CHNS-O Analyzer and applying Standard Test Method. Irrigation intervals and soil types had no effects on seedlings and leaves C%, N%, and H%, irrigation interval had affected stem C and H%, both irrigation intervals and soil types had affected root N% and interaction effect of water and soil was found on leaves and root's N%. Synthesis application of well-watered irrigation with soil that is rich in N and other nutrients would result in the greatest seedling C, N, and H content which will enhance growth and biomass accumulation and can play a crucial role in ecosystem productivity and services in the dryland regions.

Keywords: Acacia senegal, Africa, climate change, drylands, nutrients biomass, Sub-Saharan, Sudan

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Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 114