Search results for: mean absolute error

Authors: M. Khalid, G. N. Singh

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In this paper, we have considered the problem of estimation for population mean, on current (second) occasion in the presence of random non response in two-occasion successive sampling under two phase set-up. Modified exponential type estimators have been proposed, and their properties are studied under the assumptions that numbers of sampling units follow a distribution due to random non response situations. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with linear combinations of two estimators, (a) sample mean estimator for fresh sample and (b) ratio estimator for matched sample under the complete response situations. Results are demonstrated through empirical studies which present the effectiveness of the proposed estimators. Suitable recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners.

Keywords: successive sampling, random non-response, auxiliary variable, bias, mean square error

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Authors: Dolly Gadhiya, Jayvadan Patel, Mihir Raval

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Lercanidipine hydrochloride is a calcium channel blockers used for treating angina pectoris and hypertension. Lercanidipine is a BCS Class II drug having poor aqueous solubility. Absolute bioavailability of Lercanidipine is very low and the main reason ascribed for this is poor aqueous solubility of the drug. Design and formulatation of nanocrystals by media milling method was main focus of this study. In this present study preliminary optimization was carried out with one factor at a time (OFAT) approach. For this different parameters like size of milling beads, amount of zirconium beads, types of stabilizer, concentrations of stabilizer, concentrations of drug, stirring speeds and milling time were optimized on the basis of particle size, polydispersity index and zeta potential. From the OFAT model different levels for above parameters selected for Plackett - Burman Design (PBD). Plackett-Burman design having 13 runs involving 6 independent variables was carried out at higher and lower level. Based on statistical analysis of PBD it was found that concentration of stabilizer, concentration of drug and stirring speed have significant impact on particle size, PDI, zeta potential value and saturation solubility. These experimental designs for preparation of nanocrystals were applied successfully which shows increase in aqueous solubility and dissolution rate of Lercanidipine hydrochloride.

Keywords: Lercanidipine hydrochloride, nanocrystals, OFAT, Plackett Burman

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Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

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Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

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Authors: Anna Paola Micheli, Anna Maria Calce, Loris Di Nallo

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Sustainable finance identifies the process that leads, in the adoption of investment decisions, to take into account environmental and social factors, with the aim of orienting investments towards sustainable and long-term activities. Considering that the topic is at the center of the interest of national agendas, long-term investments will no longer be analyzed only by looking at financial data, but environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors will be increasingly important and will play a fundamental role in determining the risk and return of an investment. Although this perspective does not deny the orientation to profit, ESG mutual funds represent sustainable finance applied to the world of mutual funds. So the goal of this paper is to verify this attitude, in particular in the energy sector. The choice of the sector is not casual: ESG is the acronym for environmental, social, and governance, and energy companies are strictly related to the environmental theme. The methodology adopted leads to a comparison between a sample of ESG funds and a sample of ESG funds with similar characteristics, using the most important indicators of literature: yield, standard deviation, and Sharpe index. The analysis is focused on equity funds. Results that are partial, due to the lack of historicity, show a good performance of ESG funds, testifying how a sustainable approach does not necessarily mean lower profits. It is clear that these first findings do not involve an absolute preference for ESG funds in terms of performance because the persistence of results is requested. Furthermore, these findings are to be verified in other sectors and in bond funds.

Keywords: mutual funds, ESG, performance, energy

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Authors: Rouag N., Khalifa M. W., Bencheikh A., Abed H.

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The behavior study of forty-two varieties and genotypes of chickpeas regarding root wilt disease induced by Fusarium oxysporum under the natural conditions of infection was conducted at the ITGC experimental station in Sétif. The infected plants of the different chickpea genotypes have shown multiple symptoms in the field caused by the local strain of Fusarium oxysporum f.sp.cecris belonging to race II of the pathogen. These symptoms ranged from lateral or partial wilting of some ramifications to total desiccation of the plant, sometimes combined with the very slow growth of symptomatic plants. The results of the search for sources of resistance to Fusarium wilt of chickpeas in the 42 genotypes tested revealed that in terms of infection rate, the presence of 7 groups and no genotype showed absolute resistance. While in terms of severity, the results revealed the presence of three homogeneous groups. The first group formed by the most resistant genotypes, in this case, Flip10-368C; Flip11-77C; Flip11-186C; Flip11-124C; Flip11-142C, Flip11-152C; Flip11-69C; Ghab 05; Flip11-159C; Flip11-90C; Flip10-357C and Flip11-37C while the second group is the FLIP genotype 10-382C which was found to be the most sensitive for the natural infection test. Thus, the genotypes of Cicer arietinum L., which have shown significant levels of resistance to Fusarium wilt, can be integrated into breeding and improvement programs.

Keywords: chickpea, Cicer arietinum, Fusarium oxysporum, genotype resistance

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Authors: Yazhou Zhou, Yong Huang, Guoqin Ge

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In the process of human social development, the coupling and coordinated development among the ecological environment(E), production(P), and living functions(L) is of great significance for sustainable development. This study uses an improved coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) to discover the coordination conflict between E and human settlement environment. The main work of this study is as follows: (1) It is found that in the process of urbanization development of Ya 'an city from 2014 to 2018, the degree of coupling (DOC) value between E, P, and L is high, but the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the three is low, especially the DOC value of E and the other two has the biggest decline. (2) A more objective weight value is obtained, which can avoid the analysis error caused by subjective judgment weight value.

Keywords: ecological environment, coupling coordination degree, neural network, sustainable development

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Authors: K. S. Parlak, E. Turan

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The separation of marbles according to the pattern quality is a process made according to expert decision. The classification phase is the most critical part in terms of economic value. In this study, a self-learning system is proposed which performs the classification of marbles quickly and with high success. This system performs ten feature extraction by taking ten marble images from the camera. The marbles are classified by decision tree method using the obtained properties. The user forms the training set by training the system at the marble classification stage. The system evolves itself in every marble image that is classified. The aim of the proposed system is to minimize the error caused by the person performing the classification and achieve it quickly.

Keywords: decision tree, feature extraction, k-means clustering, marble classification

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Authors: Murtaza Adil, Sen Yang, Zhou Chao, Song Xiaoping

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The morphotropic phase boundary (MPB) recently has attracted constant interest in ferromagnetic systems for obtaining enhanced large magnetoelastic response. In the present study, structural and magnetoelastic properties of MPB involved ferromagnetic Tb_1-xGd_xFe₂ (0≤x≤1) system has been investigated. The change of easy magnetic direction from <111> to <100> with increasing x up MPB composition of x=0.9 is detected by step-scanned [440] synchrotron X-ray diffraction reflections. The Gd substitution for Tb changes the composition for the anisotropy compensation near MPB composition of x=0.9, which was confirmed by the analysis of detailed scanned XRD, magnetization curves and the calculation of the first anisotropy constant K₁. The spin configuration diagram accompanied with different crystal structures for Tb_1-xGd_xFe₂ was designed. The calculated first anisotropy constant K₁ shows a minimum value at MPB composition of x=0.9. In addition, the large ratio between magnetostriction, and the absolute values of the first anisotropy constant │λ_S∕K₁│ appears at MPB composition, which makes it a potential material for magnetostrictive application. Based on experimental results, a theoretically approach was also proposed to signify that the facilitated magnetization rotation and enhanced magnetoelastic effect near MPB composition are a consequence of the anisotropic flattening of free energy of ferromagnetic crystal. Our work specifies the universal existence of MPB in ferromagnetic materials which is important for substantial improvement of magnetic and magnetostrictive properties and may provide a new route to develop advanced functional materials.

Keywords: free energy, magnetic anisotropy, magnetostriction, morphotropic phase boundary (MPB)

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Authors: Miroslav H. Hristov, Velizar A. Vassilev, Georgi K. Dukendjiev

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Due to the constant development of measurement systems and the aim for computerization, unavoidable improvements are made for the main disadvantages of air gauges. With the appearance of the air-electronic measuring devices, some of their disadvantages are solved. The output electrical signal allows them to be included in the modern systems for measuring information processing and process management. Producer efforts are aimed at reducing the influence of supply pressure and measurement system setup errors. Increased accuracy requirements and preventive error measures are due to the main uses of air electronic systems - measurement of geometric dimensions in the automotive industry where they are applied as modules in measuring systems to measure geometric parameters, form, orientation and location of the elements.

Keywords: air-electronic, geometrical parameters, improvement, measurement systems

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Authors: Kartik Mahajan

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DevOps methodologies streamline software development and operations, promoting collaboration and automation. Traditional server management often relies on manual, repetitive tasks, leading to inefficiencies, potential errors, and increased operational costs. Ansible, as a configuration management tool, presents a compelling solution for automating infrastructure management processes. This review paper explores the implementation and testing of Ansible for server management, specifically focusing on automated user account configuration. By replacing manual procedures with Ansible playbooks, we aim to optimize server management, reduce human error, and potentially mitigate operational expenses. This study offers insights into Ansible’s efficacy within a DevOps context, highlighting its potential to transform server administration practices.

Keywords: cloud, Devops, automation, ansible

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Authors: S. M. Hashemy Shahdany

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Equitable water delivery becomes one of the main concerns for water authorities in arid regions. Due to water scarcity, providing reliable amount of water is not possible for most of the irrigation districts in arid regions. In this paper, water level difference control is applied to keep the water level errors equal in adjacent reaches. Distant downstream decentralized configurations of the control method are designed and tested under a realistic scenario shows canal operation under water shortage. The simulation results show that the difference controllers share the water level error among all of the users in a fair way. Therefore, water deficit has a similar influence on downstream as well as upstream and water offtakes.

Keywords: equitable water distribution, precise agriculture, sustainable agriculture, water shortage

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Ishak Suleiman, Ahmad Kamsani Samingan, Yeoh Chun Yeow, Abdul Aziz Bin Abdul Rahman

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In this paper, we evaluate the benefits of distributed 4x4 MIMO LTE downlink systems compared to that of the co-located 4x4 MIMO LTE downlink system. The performance evaluation was carried out experimentally by using Wireless Open-Access Research Platform (WARP), where the comparison between the 4x4 MIMO LTE transmission downlink system in distributed and co-located techniques was examined. The measured Error Vector Magnitude (EVM) results showed that the distributed technique achieved better system performance compared to the co-located arrangement.

Keywords: multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO), distributed MIMO, co-located MIMO, LTE

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Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression

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Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

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Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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Authors: Carla E. O. de Moraes, Gladson O. Antunes, Mauro A. Rincon

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The aim of this paper is to study the internal stabilization of the Bernoulli-Euler equation numerically. For this, we consider a square plate subjected to a feedback/damping force distributed only in a subdomain. An algorithm for obtaining an approximate solution to this problem was proposed and implemented. The numerical method used was the Finite Difference Method. Numerical simulations were performed and showed the behavior of the solution, confirming the theoretical results that have already been proved in the literature. In addition, we studied the validation of the numerical scheme proposed, followed by an analysis of the numerical error; and we conducted a study on the decay of the energy associated.

Keywords: Bernoulli-Euler plate equation, numerical simulations, stability, energy decay, finite difference method

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Authors: Mateusz Paszko, Mirosław Wendeker, Adam Majczak

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Every material body that temperature is higher than 0K (absolute zero) emits infrared radiation to the surroundings. Infrared radiation is highly meaningful in military aviation, especially in military applications of helicopters. Helicopters, in comparison to other aircraft, have much lower flight speeds and maneuverability, which makes them easy targets for actual combat assets like infrared-guided missiles. When designing new helicopter types, especially for combat applications, it is essential to pay enormous attention to infrared emissions of the solid parts composing the helicopter’s structure, as well as to exhaust gases egressing from the engine’s exhaust system. Due to their high temperature, exhaust gases, egressed to the surroundings are a major factor in infrared radiation emission and, in consequence, detectability of a helicopter performing air combat operations. Protection of the helicopter in flight from early detection, tracking and finally destruction can be realized in many ways. This paper presents the analysis of possibilities to decrease the infrared radiation level that is emitted to the environment by helicopter in flight, by cooling exhaust in special ejection-based coolers. The paper also presents the concept 3D model and results of numeric analysis of ejective-based cooler cooperation with PA-10W turbine engine. Numeric analysis presented promising results in decreasing the infrared emission level by PA W-3 helicopter in flight.

Keywords: exhaust cooler, helicopter propulsion, infrared radiation, stealth

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Authors: Carolina Senabre, Sergio Valero, Miguel Lopez, Antonio Gabaldon

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This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the short-term load forecasting (STLF). Since the behavior of consumers and producers continue changing as new technologies, it is an ongoing process, and moreover, new policies become available. The results of a research study for the Spanish Transport System Operator (REE) is presented in this paper. It is presented the improvement of the forecasting accuracy in the Balearic Islands considering the introduction of meteorological variables, such as temperature to reduce forecasting error. Variables analyzed for the forecasting in terms of overall accuracy are cloudiness, solar radiation, and wind velocity. It has also been analyzed the type of days to be considered in the research.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, power demand, neural networks, load forecasting

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Authors: Baljit Singh Khehra, Jagreeti Kaur

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In this paper, steganographic strategy is used to hide the text file inside an image. To increase the storage limit, predictive coding is utilized to implant information. In the proposed plan, one can exchange secure information by means of predictive coding methodology. The predictive coding produces high stego-image. The pixels are utilized to insert mystery information in it. The proposed information concealing plan is powerful as contrasted with the existing methodologies. By applying this strategy, a provision helps clients to productively conceal the information. Entropy, standard deviation, mean square error and peak signal noise ratio are the parameters used to evaluate the proposed methodology. The results of proposed approach are quite promising.

Keywords: cryptography, steganography, reversible image, predictive coding

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Authors: Shady Ahmed Emara

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Introductory statement: The temple is characterized by a unique engineering design. This study aimed to explain the means that were used to reach this design. Background of the Study: Temple of Dandara consists of 24 columns with a height of 18m and a diameter of 2m. This paper is about the engineering method for constructing these huge columns. Two experiments were conducted at the temple. The first experiment used AutoCAD to compare the similarity of the columns in terms of dimensions. The second experiment used a laser rangefinder to measure the extent of the match between the heights between the columns. The Major Findings of the Study: (1) The method of constructing the columns was through several divided layers. It is divided into two halves and built opposite each other to maintain the integrity of the columns. (2) The match between the heights of the columns, which reached the error rate between one column and another, is only 1 mm. Concluding Statement: Both experiences will be explained through 2D and 3D.

Keywords: ancient, construction, architecture, building

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Authors: Angga S. Fajar, A. Aminullah, J. Kiyono, R. A. Safitri

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This paper discusses about the application of ANN for optimizing of bridge structure design. ANN has been applied in various field of science concerning prediction and optimization. The structural optimization has several benefit including accelerate structural design process, saving the structural material, and minimize self-weight and mass of structure. In this paper, there are three types of bridge structure that being optimized including PSC I-girder superstructure, composite steel-concrete girder superstructure, and RC bridge pier. The different optimization strategy on each bridge structure implement back propagation method of ANN is conducted in this research. The optimal weight and easier design process of bridge structure with satisfied error are achieved.

Keywords: bridge structures, ANN, optimization, back propagation

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Authors: Eui-Hak Lee, Jae-Hyun Ro, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In internet of things (IoT) system, the communication scheme with reliability and low power is required to connect a terminal. Cooperative communication can achieve reliability and lower power than multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) system. Cooperative communication increases the reliability with low power, but decreases a throughput. It has a weak point that the communication throughput is decreased. In this paper, a novel scheme is proposed to increase the communication throughput. The novel scheme is a transmission structure that increases transmission rate. And a decoding scheme according to the novel transmission structure is proposed. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme increases the throughput without bit error rate (BER) performance degradation.

Keywords: cooperative communication, IoT, STBC, transmission rate

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Authors: M. Fatmi, B. Gueridi, Z. Zerrougui

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Some physical properties of hexahalometallate K₂XBr₆(X=Se, Pt) were computed in the zinc blend structure using generalized gradient approximation. The cell constant of K₂SeBr₆ and K₂PtBr₆ is consistent with the experiment value quoted in the literature, where the error is 0.95 % and 1 %. K₂SeBr₆ and K₂PtBr₆ present covalent bonding, high anisotropy and are ductile. The elastic constants of K₂SeBr₆ and K₂PtBr₆ are significantly smaller due to their larger reticular distances and lower Colombian forces, and then they are soft and damage tolerant. The interatomic separation is greater in K₂SeBr₆ than in K₂PtBr₆; hence the Colombian interaction in K₂PtBr₆ is greater than that of K2SeBr₆. The internal coordinate of the Br atom in K₂PtBr₆ is lower than that of the same atom in K2SeBr₆, and this can be explained by the fact that it is inversely proportional to the atom radius of Se and Pt. There are two major plasmonic processes, with intensities of 3.7 and 1.35, located around 53.5 nm and 72.8 nm for K₂SeBr₆ and K₂PtBr₆.

Keywords: hexahalometallate, band structure, morphology, absorption, band gap, absorber

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Authors: Uche A. Nnawulezi

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Over the past decades, the acquisition and utilization of nuclear energy have remained a standout amongst the most intractable issues which past world leaders have unsuccessfully endeavored to grapple with. This study analyzes the present advancement and enactment on the acquisition and utilization of nuclear energy in contemporary international law. It seeks to address international co-operations in the field of nuclear energy by looking at what nuclear energy is all about and how it came into being. It also seeks to address concerns expressed by a few researchers on the position of nuclear law in the most extensive domain of the law by looking at the authoritative procedure for nuclear law, system of arrangements and traditions. This study also agrees in favour of treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons based on human right and humanitarian principles that are not duly moral, but also legal ones. Specifically, the past development activities on nuclear weapon and the practical system of the nuclear energy institute will be inspected. The study noted among others, former president Obama's remark on nuclear energy and Pakistan nuclear policies and its attendant outcomes. Essentially, we depended on documentary evidence and henceforth scooped a great part of the data from secondary sources. The study emphatically advocates for the adoption of absolute liability principles and setting up of a viability trust fund, all of which will help in sustaining global peace where global best practices in acquisition and use of nuclear energy will be widely accepted in the contemporary international law. Essentially, the fundamental proposals made in this paper if completely adopted, might go far in fortifying the present advancement and enactment on the application and utilization of nuclear energy and accordingly, addressing a portion of the intractable issues under international law.

Keywords: nuclear energy, international law, acquisition, development

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Authors: Naser Zouri

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Purpose: Measures of formulate and implementation strategy shows amount of product rate-market based strategic management category such as courtesy, competence, and compliance to reach the high loyalty of financial ecosystem. Despite, it solves the market place error intention to fair trade organization. Finding: Finding shows the ability of executives’ level of management to motivate and better decision-making to solve the treatments in business organization. However, it made ideal level of each interposition policy for a hypothetical household. Methodology/design. Style of questionnaire about the data collection was selected to survey of both pilot test and real research. Also, divide of questionnaire and using of Free Scale Semiconductor`s between the finance employee was famous of this instrument. Respondent`s nominated basic on non-probability sampling such as convenience sampling to answer the questionnaire. The way of realization costs to performed the questionnaire divide among the respondent`s approximately was suitable as a spend the expenditure to reach the answer but very difficult to collect data from hospital. However, items of research survey was formed of implement strategy, environment, supply chain, employee from impact of implementation strategy on reach to better financial consequences and also formulate strategy, comprehensiveness strategic design, organization performance from impression on formulate strategy and financial consequences. Practical Implication: Dynamic capability approach of formulate and implement strategy focuses on the firm-specific processes through which firms integrate, build, or reconfigure resources valuable for making a theoretical contribution. Originality/ value of research: Going beyond the current discussion, we show that case studies have the potential to extend and refine theory. We present new light on how dynamic capabilities can benefit from case study research by discovering the qualifications that shape the development of capabilities and determining the boundary conditions of the dynamic capabilities approach. Limitation of the study :Present study also relies on survey of methodology for data collection and the response perhaps connection by financial employee was difficult to responds the question because of limitation work place.

Keywords: financial ecosystem, loyalty, Malaysian market error, dynamic capability approach, rate-market, optimization intelligence strategy, courtesy, competence, compliance

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Authors: Manea Viorel, Puscoci Sorin, Stoichescu Dan Alexandru

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Free Space Optics (FSO) is an optical telecommunication system that uses laser beam to transmit data at high bit rates via terrestrial atmosphere. This article describes a method to obtain higher bit rates, under unfavorable weather conditions using multiple optical beams, which carry information with low optical power. Optical link quality assessment is given by the attenuation on different weather conditions. The goal of this paper is to compare two transmission techniques: mono and multi beam, both affected by atmospheric attenuation, using OOK and L-PPM modulation. Link availability is evaluated using eye-diagram that provides information about the overall bit error rate of the system.

Keywords: free space optics, wireless optic, laser communication, spatial diversity

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Authors: Jeries J. Abou-Hanna, Bradley Storm

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This paper looks to reduce the complexity of determining stress intensity factors while maintaining high levels of accuracy by the use of a linearized layering approach. Many techniques for stress intensity factor determination exist, but they can be limited by conservative results, requiring too many user parameters, or by being too computationally intensive. Multiple notch geometries with various crack lengths were investigated in this study to better understand the effectiveness of the proposed method. By linearizing the average stresses in radial layers around the crack tip, stress intensity factors were found to have error ranging from -10.03% to 8.94% when compared to analytically exact solutions. This approach proved to be a robust and efficient method of accurately determining stress intensity factors.

Keywords: fracture mechanics, finite element method, stress intensity factor, stress linearization

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Authors: Mohamed Gaafar, Evan Davies

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Many municipalities within Canada and abroad use chloramination to disinfect drinking water so as to avert the production of the disinfection by-products (DBPs) that result from conventional chlorination processes and their consequential public health risks. However, the long-lasting monochloramine disinfectant (NH2Cl) can pose a significant risk to the environment. As, it can be introduced into stormwater sewers, from different water uses, and thus freshwater sources. Little research has been undertaken to monitor and characterize the decay of NH2Cl and to study the parameters affecting its decomposition in stormwater networks. Therefore, the current study was intended to investigate this decay starting by building a stormwater model and validating its hydraulic and hydrologic computations, and then modelling water quality in the storm sewers and examining the effects of different parameters on chloramine decay. The presented work here is only the first stage of this study. The 30th Avenue basin in Southern Edmonton was chosen as a case study, because the well-developed basin has various land-use types including commercial, industrial, residential, parks and recreational. The City of Edmonton has already built a MIKE-URBAN stormwater model for modelling floods. Nevertheless, this model was built to the trunk level which means that only the main drainage features were presented. Additionally, this model was not calibrated and known to consistently compute pipe flows higher than the observed values; not to the benefit of studying water quality. So the first goal was to complete modelling and updating all stormwater network components. Then, available GIS Data was used to calculate different catchment properties such as slope, length and imperviousness. In order to calibrate and validate this model, data of two temporary pipe flow monitoring stations, collected during last summer, was used along with records of two other permanent stations available for eight consecutive summer seasons. The effect of various hydrological parameters on model results was investigated. It was found that model results were affected by the ratio of impervious areas. The catchment length was tested, however calculated, because it is approximate representation of the catchment shape. Surface roughness coefficients were calibrated using. Consequently, computed flows at the two temporary locations had correlation coefficients of values 0.846 and 0.815, where the lower value pertained to the larger attached catchment area. Other statistical measures, such as peak error of 0.65%, volume error of 5.6%, maximum positive and negative differences of 2.17 and -1.63 respectively, were all found in acceptable ranges.

Keywords: stormwater, urban drainage, simulation, validation, MIKE URBAN

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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