Search results for: prediction of publications

Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

Abstract:

Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to developed an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: river flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, molecular descriptors, machine learning, random forest

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Authors: Victoria Y. Garnova, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Denis G. Yakovlev, Andrei А. Amelenkov, Sergey V. Khudyakov

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Assessment of novelty of studies submitted in Russian publications is given by the method citation analysis to identify scientific research with a high degree of innovation. This may be the basis of recommendations for subjects new joint projects setting of the RF and the EU. Apart from not the best rating of Russian publications (may even its lack) current IT ensure open access to the WEB-sites of these journals that make possible own expertise selective rapid assessment of the advanced developments in Russia by interested foreign investors. Cited foreign literature in Russian journals can become the subject of study to determine the innovative attractiveness of scientific research on the background a specific future-proof abroad. Authors introduced: (1) linguistic impact factor Li-f of journals for describing the share of publications in the majority language; (2) linguistic citation index Lact characterizing the significance of scientific research and linguistic top ones Ltop for evaluation of the spectral width of citing of foreign journals.

Keywords: citation analysis, linguistic citation indexes, linguistic impact factor, innovative projects

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

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In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

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Authors: Arun Goel

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Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper, attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly and Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly and Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicates the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly and Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly and Rbf kernels)

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Authors: Nazanin Ahmadi Daryakenari

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Background: Diabetes significantly influences the risk of heart failure. The interplay between distinct types of diabetes, heart failure, and their distribution across various age groups remains an area of active exploration. This study endeavors to scrutinize the age group distribution in publications addressing Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes and heart failure on PubMed while also examining the evolving publication trends. Methods: We leveraged E-utilities and RegEx to search and extract publication data from PubMed using various mesh terms. Subsequently, we conducted descriptive statistics and t-tests to discern the differences between the two diabetes types and the distribution across age groups. Finally, we analyzed the temporal trends of publications concerning both types of diabetes and heart failure. Results: Our findings revealed a divergence in the age group distribution between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes within heart failure publications. Publications discussing Type 2 diabetes and heart failure were more predominant among older age groups, whereas those addressing Type 1 diabetes and heart failure displayed a more balanced distribution across all age groups. The t-test revealed no significant difference in the means between the two diabetes types. However, the number of publications exploring the relationship between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure has seen a steady increase over time, suggesting an escalating interest in this area. Conclusion: The dissection of publication patterns on PubMed uncovers a pronounced association between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure within older age groups. This highlights the critical need to comprehend the distinct age group differences when examining diabetes and heart failure to inform and refine targeted prevention and treatment strategies.

Keywords: Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, heart failure, age groups, publication patterns, PubMed

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Authors: Nickolas A. Stewart, Donald C. Hefelfinger, Garrett V. Brittain, Timothy C. Frommeyer, Adrienne Stolfi

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Orthopedic surgery is currently considered one of the most competitive specialties that medical students can apply to for residency training. As evidenced by increasing United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, overall grades, and publication, presentation, and abstract numbers, this specialty is getting increasingly competitive. The recent change of USMLE Step 1 scores to pass/fail has resulted in additional challenges for medical students planning to apply for orthopedic residency. Until now, these scores have been a tool used by residency programs to screen applicants as an initial factor to determine the strength of their application. With USMLE STEP 1 converting to a pass/fail grading criterion, the question remains as to what will take its place on the ERAS application. The primary objective of this study is to determine the trends in the number of research projects, abstracts, presentations, and publications among orthopedic residency applicants. Secondly, this study seeks to determine if there is a relationship between the number of research projects, abstracts, presentations, and publications, and match rates. The researchers utilized the National Resident Matching Program's Charting Outcomes in the Match between 2007 and 2022 to identify mean publications and research project numbers by allopathic and osteopathic US orthopedic surgery senior applicants. A paired t test was performed between the mean number of publications and research projects by matched and unmatched applicants. Additionally, simple linear regressions within matched and unmatched applicants were used to determine the association between year and number of abstracts, presentations, and publications, and a number of research projects. For determining whether the increase in the number of abstracts, presentations, and publications, and a number of research projects is significantly different between matched and unmatched applicants, an analysis of covariance is used with an interaction term added to the model, which represents the test for the difference between the slopes of each group. The data shows that from 2007 to 2022, the average number of research publications increased from 3 to 16.5 for matched orthopedic surgery applicants. The paired t-test had a significant p-value of 0.006 for the number of research publications between matched and unmatched applicants. In conclusion, the average number of publications for orthopedic surgery applicants has significantly increased for matched and unmatched applicants from 2007 to 2022. Moreover, this increase has accelerated in recent years, as evidenced by an increase of only 1.5 publications from 2007 to 2001 versus 5.0 publications from 2018 to 2022. The number of abstracts, presentations, and publications is a significant factor regarding an applicant's likelihood to successfully match into an orthopedic residency program. With USMLE Step 1 being converted to pass/fail, the researchers expect students and program directors will place increased importance on additional factors that can help them stand out. This study demonstrates that research will be a primary component in stratifying future orthopedic surgery applicants. In addition, this suggests the average number of research publications will continue to accelerate. Further study is required to determine whether this growth is sustainable.

Keywords: publications, orthopedic surgery, research, residency applications

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

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With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

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Authors: Maurice Ntahobari, Levin Kuhlmann, Mario Boley, Zhinoos Razavi Hesabi

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For machine learning based epileptic seizure prediction, it is important for the model to be implemented in small implantable or wearable devices that can be used to monitor epilepsy patients; however, current state-of-the-art methods are complex and computationally intensive. We use Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to find relevant intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) features and improve the computational efficiency of a state-of-the-art seizure prediction method based on the extra trees classifier while maintaining prediction performance. Results for a small contest dataset and a much larger dataset with continuous recordings of up to 3 years per patient from 15 patients yield better than chance prediction performance (p < 0.004). Moreover, while the performance of the SHAP-based model is comparable to that of the benchmark, the overall training and prediction time of the model has been reduced by a factor of 1.83. It can also be noted that the feature called zero crossing value is the best EEG feature for seizure prediction. These results suggest state-of-the-art seizure prediction performance can be achieved using efficient methods based on optimal feature selection.

Keywords: machine learning, seizure prediction, extra tree classifier, SHAP, epilepsy

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Authors: Rafael Feldmann Farias, Fernando Tobal Berssaneti

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Since its emergence in 1998, ISO 10014 has been developed as a response to the need to demonstrate the economic and financial benefits that an organization can obtain from the implementation of a quality management system. With the publication of the new edition in 2021, this article aims to identify how this standard has been addressed through a literature review. Among the results, it was found that, of the 282 documents identified, only 0.7% of the publications used the standard and 1.4% of the publications cited it. This low adherence seems to be linked to the highly technical nature of the content of the standard.

Keywords: quality management system, ISO 10014, economical benefits, financial benefits

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Ziyad Alghamdi

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This research investigates how issues concerning Saudi women have been represented in selected U.S. and Saudi publications. Saudi Vision 2030 is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's development strategy, which was revealed on April 25, 2016. This study used 115 news items across selected newspapers as its sampling. The New York Times and the Washington Post were chosen to represent U.S. newspapers and picked two Saudi newspapers, Al Jazirah, and Al Watan. This research examines how these issues were covered before and during the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030. The news pieces were analyzed using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. The qualitative study employed an inductive technique to uncover frames. Furthermore, this work looked at how American and Saudi publications had framed Saudi women depicted in images by reviewing the photographs used in news reports about Saudi women's issues. The primary conclusion implies that the human-interest frame was more prevalent in American media, whereas the economic frame was more prevalent in Saudi publications. A variety of diverse topics were considered.

Keywords: Saudi newspapers, Saudi Vision 2030, framing theory, Saudi women

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Authors: Ramona-Niculina Jurcau, Ioana-Marieta Jurcau, Dong Hun Kwak, Nicolae-Alexandru Colceriu

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Background: Academic environment led, in time, to the birth of some research subjects concluded with many publications. One of these issues is related to the learning stress. Thus far, the PubMed website displays an impressive number of papers related to the academic stress. Aims: Through this study, we aimed to evaluate the research concerning academic learning stress (ALS), by a retrospective analysis of PubMed publications. Methods: We evaluated the ALS, considering: a) different keywords as - ‘academic stress’ (AS), ‘academic stressors’ (ASs), ‘academic learning stress’ (ALS), ‘academic student stress’ (ASS), ‘academic stress college’ (ASC), ‘medical academic stress’ (MAS), ‘non-medical academic stress’ (NMAS), ‘student stress’ (SS), ‘nursing student stress’ (NS), ‘college student stress’ (CSS), ‘university student stress’ (USS), ‘medical student stress’ (MSS), ‘dental student stress’ (DSS), ‘non-medical student stress’ (NMSS), ‘learning students stress’ (LSS), ‘medical learning student stress’ (MLSS), ‘non-medical learning student stress’ (NMLSS); b) the year average for decades; c) some selection filters provided by PubMed website: Article types - Journal Article (JA), Clinical Trial (CT), Review (R); Species - Humans (H); Sex - Male (M) and Female (F); Ages - 13-18, 19-24, 19-44. Statistical evaluation was made on the basis of the Student test. Results: There were differences between keywords, referring to all filters. Nevertheless, for all keywords were noted the following: the majority of studies have indicated that subjects were humans; there were no important differences between the number of subjects M and F; the age of participants was mentioned only in some studies, predominating those with teenagers and subjects between 19-24 years. Conclusions: 1) PubMed publications document that concern for the research field of academic stress, lasts for 56 years and was materialized in more than 5.010 papers. 2) Number of publications in the field of academic stress varies depending on the selected keywords: those with a general framing (AS, ASs, ALS, ASS, SS, USS, LSS) are more numerous than those with a specific framing (ASC, MAS, NMAS, NS, CSS, MSS, DSS, NMSS, MLSS, NMLSS); those concerning the academic medical environment (MAS, NS, MSS, DSS, MLSS) prevailed compared to the non-medical environment (NMAS, NMSS, NMLSS). 3) Most of the publications are included at JA, of which a small percentage are CT and R. 4) Most of the academic stress studies were conducted with subjects both M and F, most aged under 19 years and between 19-24 years.

Keywords: academic stress, student stress, academic learning stress, medical student stress

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Authors: Nasrine Olson

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With over 70,000 scholarly publications on the topic of biosensors, an overview of the field has become a challenge. To facilitate, there are currently over 700 expert-reviews of publications on biosensors and related topics. This study focuses on these review papers in order to provide a Meta-Review of the area. This paper provides a statistical analysis and overview of biosensor-related review papers. Comprehensive searches are conducted in the Web of Science, and PubMed databases and the resulting empirical material are analyzed using bibliometric methods and tools. The study finds that the biosensor-related review papers can be categorized in five related subgroups, broadly denoted by (i) properties of materials and particles, (ii) analysis and indicators, (iii) diagnostics, (iv) pollutant and analytical devices, and (v) treatment/ application. For an easy and clear access to the findings visualization of clusters and networks of connections are presented. The study includes a temporal dimension and identifies the trends over the years with an emphasis on the most recent developments. This paper provides useful insights for those who wish to form a better understanding of the research trends in the area of biosensors.

Keywords: bibliometrics, biosensors, meta-review, statistical analysis, trends visualization

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Paschalis Koutalakis, George N. Zaimes, Valasia Iakovoglou, Konstantinos Ioannou

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Mitigating soil erosion, especially in Mediterranean countries such as Greece, is essential in order to maintain environmental and agricultural sustainability. In this paper, scientific publications related to soil erosion studies in Greece were reviewed and categorized. To accomplish this, the online search engine of Scopus was used. The key words were “soil”, “erosion” and “Greece.” An analysis of the published articles was conducted at three levels: i) type of publication, ii) chronologic and iii) thematic. A hundred and ten publications published in scientific journals were reviewed. The results showed that the awareness regarding the soil erosion in Greece has increased only in the last decades. The publications covered a wide range of thematic categories such as the type of studied areas, the physical phenomena that trigger and influence the soil erosion, the negative anthropogenic impacts on them, the assessment tools that were used in order to examine the threat and the proper management. The analysis of these articles was significant and necessary in order to find the scientific gaps of soil erosion studies in Greece and help enhance the sustainability of soil management in the future.

Keywords: climate change, agricultural sustainability, environmental sustainability, soil management

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Nagarjuna Pitty

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Over the past decade there has been substantial progress in the usage of ePrints resources national and international research community. JRD Tata Memorial Library has hosting for the web based ePrints services and maintenance to online user community. This paper provides an overview how to share JRDTML experiences in using GNU EPrints.org software to create and maintain the open-access institutional repository of IISc, ePrints@IISc. This paper states that the GNU EPrints.org is the first generic software for creating Open Access Initiative (OAI)-compliant repositories, which enables the researchers to self-archive their research publications thus facilitating open access to their publications. IISc has been using this software since early 2002. This paper tells that the GNU EPrints.org software is an excellent tool for creating and maintaining OAI-compliant repositories. It can be setup easily even by those who are not too much experts in computer. In this paper, author is sharing JRDTML experiences in using GNU ePrints.org software.

Keywords: digital library, open access initiative, scholarly publications, institutional repository, ePrints@IISc

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Christina A. van Hal, Xiaoqian Jiang, Luyao Chen, Yan Chu, Robert D. Jolly, Yaobin Lin, Jitian Zhao, Kang Lin Hsieh

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The COVID-19 Literature Summary App was created for the primary purpose of enabling academicians and clinicians to quickly sort through the vast array of recent coronavirus publications by topics of interest. Multiple methods of summarizing and sorting the manuscripts were created. A summary page introduces the application function and capabilities, while an interactive map provides daily updates on infection, death, and recovery rates. A page with a pivot table allows publication sorting by topic, with an interactive data table that allows sorting topics by columns, as wells as the capability to view abstracts. Additionally, publications may be sorted by the medical topics they cover. We used the CORD-19 database to compile lists of publications. The data table can sort binary variables, allowing the user to pick desired publication topics, such as papers that describe COVID-19 symptoms. The application is primarily designed for use by researchers but can be used by anybody who wants a faster and more efficient means of locating papers of interest.

Keywords: COVID-19, literature summary, information retrieval, Snorkel

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

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