Search results for: level set model

Authors: Hung-Jiun Chi, Cheng-En Tsai, Jia-Ying Tu

Abstract:

Semi-active control of Magnetorheological (MR) dampers for vibration reduction of structural systems has received considerable attention in civil and earthquake engineering, because the effective stiffness and damping properties of MR fluid can change in a very short time in reaction to external loading, requiring only a low level of power. However, the inherent nonlinear dynamics of hysteresis raise challenges in the modeling and control processes. In order to control the MR damper, an innovative Duffing-like equation is proposed to approximate the hysteresis dynamics in a deterministic and systematic manner than previously has been possible. Then, the model-reference adaptive control technique based on the Duffing-like model and the Lyapunov method is discussed. Parameter identification work with experimental data is presented to show the effectiveness of the Duffing-like model. In addition, simulation results show that the resulting adaptive gains enable the MR damper force to track the desired response of the reference model satisfactorily, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed modeling and control techniques.

Keywords: magnetorheological damper, duffing equation, model-reference adaptive control, Lyapunov function, hysteresis

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Nikolay P. Brayanov, Anna V. Stoynova

Abstract:

Model-based development approach is gaining more support and acceptance. Its higher abstraction level brings simplification of systems’ description that allows domain experts to do their best without particular knowledge in programming. The different levels of simulation support the rapid prototyping, verifying and validating the product even before it exists physically. Nowadays model-based approach is beneficial for modelling of complex embedded systems as well as a generation of code for many different hardware platforms. Moreover, it is possible to be applied in safety-relevant industries like automotive, which brings extra automation of the expensive device certification process and especially in the software qualification. Using it, some companies report about cost savings and quality improvements, but there are others claiming no major changes or even about cost increases. This publication demonstrates the level of maturity and autonomy of model-based approach for code generation. It is based on a real live automotive seat heater (ASH) module, developed using The Mathworks, Inc. tools. The model, created with Simulink, Stateflow and Matlab is used for automatic generation of C code with Embedded Coder. To prove the maturity of the process, Code generation advisor is used for automatic configuration. All additional configuration parameters are set to auto, when applicable, leaving the generation process to function autonomously. As a result of the investigation, the publication compares the quality of generated embedded code and a manually developed one. The measurements show that generally, the code generated by automatic approach is not worse than the manual one. A deeper analysis of the technical parameters enumerates the disadvantages, part of them identified as topics for our future work.

Keywords: embedded code generation, embedded C code quality, embedded systems, model-based development

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Nermin Sökmen

Abstract:

An effort estimation model is needed for software-intensive projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or some combination of the two, as well as high level software solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a system development effort estimation model which takes functional complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.

Keywords: functional complexity, functional decomposition, development effort, technical difficulty, design team capability, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Lingzhi Li, Jiankun Zhang, Tiantian Gu

Abstract:

Hazard management that can prevent fatal accidents and property losses is a fundamental process during the buildings’ construction stage. However, due to lack of safety supervision resources and operational pressures, the conduction of hazard management is poor and ineffective in China. In order to improve the quality of construction safety management, it is critical to explore the use of information technologies to ensure that the process of hazard management is efficient and effective. After exploring the existing problems of construction hazard management in China, this paper develops the griddization management model for construction hazard management. First, following the knowledge grid infrastructure, the griddization computing infrastructure for construction hazards management is designed which includes five layers: resource entity layer, information management layer, task management layer, knowledge transformation layer and application layer. This infrastructure will be as the technical support for realizing grid management. Second, this study divides the construction hazards into grids through city level, district level and construction site level according to grid principles. Last, a griddization management process including hazard identification, assessment and control is developed. Meanwhile, all stakeholders of construction safety management, such as owners, contractors, supervision organizations and government departments, should take the corresponding responsibilities in this process. Finally, a case study based on actual construction hazard identification, assessment and control is used to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed griddization management model. The advantage of this designed model is to realize information sharing and cooperative management between various safety management departments.

Keywords: construction hazard, griddization computing, grid management, process

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Liu Canqi, Zeng Junsheng

Abstract:

This study identifies two typical bottlenecks that occur when a vehicle cannot change lanes: car following and car stopping. The ideas of traffic field and traffic mass are presented in this work. When there are other vehicles in front of the target vehicle within a particular distance, a force is created that affects the target vehicle's driving speed. The characteristics of the driver and the vehicle collectively determine the traffic mass; the driving speed of the vehicle and external variables have no bearing on this. From a physical level, this study examines the vehicle's bottleneck when following a car, identifies the outside factors that have an impact on how it drives, takes into account that the vehicle will transform kinetic energy into potential energy during deceleration, and builds a calculation model for traffic mass. The energy-time conversion coefficient is created from an economic standpoint utilizing the social average wage level and the average cost of motor fuel. Vissim simulation program measures the vehicle's deceleration distance and delays under the Wiedemann car-following model. The difference between the measured value of deceleration delay acquired by simulation and the theoretical value calculated by the model is compared using the conversion calculation model of traffic mass and deceleration delay. The experimental data demonstrate that the model is reliable since the error rate between the theoretical calculation value of the deceleration delay obtained by the model and the measured value of simulation results is less than 10%. The article's conclusion is that the traffic field has an impact on moving cars on the road and that physical and socioeconomic factors should be taken into account while studying vehicle-following behavior. The deceleration delay value of a vehicle's driving and traffic mass have a socioeconomic relationship that can be utilized to calculate the energy-time conversion coefficient when dealing with the bottleneck of cars stopping and starting.

Keywords: traffic field, social economics, traffic mass, bottleneck, deceleration delay

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

Abstract:

Transportation sector represents more than 40% of total energy consumption in Malaysia. This sector is a major user of fossils based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. Considering this fact, this paper attempts to investigate the problem of reducing CO2 emission using linear programming approach. An optimization model which is used to investigate the optimal level of CO2 emission reduction in the road transport sector is presented. In this paper, scenarios have been used to demonstrate the emission reduction model: (1) utilising alternative fuel scenario, (2) improving fuel efficiency scenario, (3) removing fuel subsidy scenario, (4) reducing demand travel, (5) optimal scenario. This study finds that fuel balancing can contribute to the reduction of the amount of CO2 emission by up to 3%. Beyond 3% emission reductions, more stringent measures that include fuel switching, fuel efficiency improvement, demand travel reduction and combination of mitigation measures have to be employed. The model revealed that the CO2 emission reduction in the road transportation can be reduced by 38.3% in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: CO2 emission, fuel consumption, optimization, linear programming, transportation sector, Malaysia

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Azizul Baten, Kamrul Hossain, Abdullah-Al-Zabir

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to develop an appropriate stochastic frontier secondary schools efficiency model by ICT Intervention and to examine the impact of ICT challenges on secondary schools efficiency in the Sylhet division in Bangladesh using stochastic frontier analysis. The Translog stochastic frontier model was found an appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas model in secondary schools efficiency by ICT Intervention. Based on the results of the Cobb-Douglas model, it is found that the coefficient of the number of teachers, the number of students, and teaching ability had a positive effect on increasing the level of efficiency. It indicated that these are related to technical efficiency. In the case of inefficiency effects for both Cobb-Douglas and Translog models, the coefficient of the ICT lab decreased secondary school inefficiency, but the online class in school was found to increase the level of inefficiency. The coefficients of teacher’s preference for ICT tools like multimedia projectors played a contributor role in decreasing the secondary school inefficiency in the Sylhet division of Bangladesh. The interaction effects of the number of teachers and the classrooms, and the number of students and the number of classrooms, the number of students and teaching ability, and the classrooms and teaching ability of the teachers were recorded with the positive values and these have a positive impact on increasing the secondary school efficiency. The overall mean efficiency of urban secondary schools was found at 84.66% for the Translog model, while it was 83.63% for the Cobb-Douglas model. The overall mean efficiency of rural secondary schools was found at 80.98% for the Translog model, while it was 81.24% for the Cobb-Douglas model. So, the urban secondary schools performed better than the rural secondary schools in the Sylhet division. It is observed from the results of the Tobit model that the teacher-student ratio had a positive influence on secondary school efficiency. The teaching experiences of those who have 1 to 5 years and 10 years above, MPO type school, conventional teaching method have had a negative and significant influence on secondary school efficiency. The estimated value of σ-square (0.0625) was different from Zero, indicating a good fit. The value of γ (0.9872) was recorded as positive and it can be interpreted as follows: 98.72 percent of random variation around in secondary school outcomes due to inefficiency.

Keywords: efficiency, secondary schools, ICT, stochastic frontier analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Zhou Jianhong

Abstract:

Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Tibor Koltay

Abstract:

Among varied new literacies, information literacy is not only the best-known one but displays numerous models and frameworks. Nonetheless, there is still a lack of its complex theoretical model that could be applied to information literacy education in public (K12) education, which often makes use of constructivist approaches. This paper aims to present the main features of such a model. To develop a complex model, the literature and practice of phenomenographic and sociocultural theories, as well as discourse analytical approaches to information literacy, have been reviewed. Besides these constructivist and expressive based educational approaches, the new model is intended to include the innovation of coupling them with a cognitive model that takes developing informational and operational knowledge into account. The convergences between different literacies (information literacy, media literacy, media and information literacy, and data literacy) were taken into account, as well. The model will also make use of a three-country survey that examined secondary school teachers’ attitudes to information literacy. The results of this survey show that only a part of the respondents feel properly prepared to teach information literacy courses, and think that they can teach information literacy skills by themselves, while they see a librarian as an expert in educating information literacy. The use of the resulting model is not restricted to enhancing theory. It is meant to raise the level of awareness about information literacy and related literacies, and the next phase of the model’s development will be a pilot study that verifies the usefulness of the methodology for practical information literacy education in selected Hungarian secondary schools.

Keywords: communication, data literacy, discourse analysis, information literacy education, media and information literacy media literacy, phenomenography, public education, sociocultural theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Wooyoung Jung, Ghang Lee

Abstract:

This paper paper reports the worldwide status of building information modeling (BIM) adoption from the perspectives of the engagement level, the Hype Cycle model, the technology diffusion model, and BIM-uses. An online survey was distributed, and 156 experts from six continents responded. Overall, North America was the most advanced continent, followed by Oceania and Europe. Countries in Asia perceived their phase mainly as slope of enlightenment (mature) in the Hype Cycle model. In the technology diffusion model, the main BIM-users worldwide were “early majority” (third phase), but those in the Middle East/Africa and South America were “early adopters” (second phase). In addition, the more advanced the country, the more number of BIM services employed in general. In summary, North America, Europe, Oceania, and Asia were advancing rapidly toward the mature stage of BIM, whereas the Middle East/Africa and South America were still in the early phase. The simple indexes used in this study may be used to track the worldwide status of BIM adoption in long-term surveys.

Keywords: BIM adoption, BIM services, hype cycle model, technology diffusion model

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Hui Wang, Huan Zhang

Abstract:

This study uses systematic review and qualitative comparative analysis methods to comprehensively inquire about the recent street-level policy entrepreneurship research, to identify the characteristics and lessons we can learn from 20 years of street-level policy entrepreneurship literature, and the relations between political contexts and street-level policy entrepreneurs’ strategies. Using data from a systematic review of street-level policy entrepreneurship literature, we identify the sub-components of different political contexts and core strategies of street-level policy entrepreneurs and estimate the configurational relations between different political settings and street-level policy entrepreneurs’ strategies. Our results show that street-level policy entrepreneurs display social acuity, define the problem, and build team strategies when policy or political streams dominate. Street-level policy entrepreneurs will use lead-by-example strategies when both policy and political streams dominate. Furthermore, street-level policy entrepreneurs will use bureaucratic strategies, even if no stream dominates in the political context.

Keywords: policy entrepreneurs, qualitative comparative analysis, street-level bureaucracy, systematic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: S. Chowdhury, A. Corlett

Abstract:

Large tsunamis strike the British Columbia coast every few hundred years. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends along the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to Northern California is one of the most seismically active regions in Canada. Significant earthquakes have occurred in this region, including the 1700 Cascade Earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 9.2. Based on geological records, experts have predicted a 'great earthquake' of a similar magnitude within this region may happen any time. This earthquake is expected to generate a large tsunami that could impact the coastal communities on Vancouver Island. Since many of these communities are in remote locations, they are more likely to be vulnerable, as the post-earthquake relief efforts would be impacted by the damage to critical road infrastructures. To assess the coastal vulnerability within these communities, a hydrodynamic model has been developed using MIKE-21 software. We have considered a 500 year probabilistic earthquake design criteria including the subsidence in this model. The bathymetry information was collected from Canadian Hydrographic Services (CHS), and National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA). The arial survey was conducted using a Cessna-172 aircraft for the communities, and then the information was converted to generate a topographic digital elevation map. Both survey information was incorporated into the model, and the domain size of the model was about 1000km x 1300km. This model was calibrated with the tsunami occurred off the west coast of Moresby Island on October 28, 2012. The water levels from the model were compared with two tide gauge stations close to the Vancouver Island and the output from the model indicates the satisfactory result. For this study, the design water level was considered as High Water Level plus the Sea Level Rise for 2100 year. The hourly wind speeds from eight directions were collected from different wind stations and used a 200-year return period wind speed in the model for storm events. The regional model was set for 12 hrs simulation period, which takes more than 16 hrs to complete one simulation using double Xeon-E7 CPU computer plus a K-80 GPU. The boundary information for the local model was generated from the regional model. The local model was developed using a high resolution mesh to estimate the coastal flooding for the communities. It was observed from this study that many communities will be effected by the Cascadia tsunami and the inundation maps were developed for the communities. The infrastructures inside the coastal inundation area were identified. Coastal vulnerability planning and resilient design solutions will be implemented to significantly reduce the risk.

Keywords: tsunami, coastal flooding, coastal vulnerable, earthquake, Vancouver, wave propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Debajyoti Mukherjee, Arathy B. S., Arpita Sahu, Saranga P. Pogula

Abstract:

A Functional Model to mimic the functional correctness of a Neural Network Compute Accelerator IP is very crucial for design validation. Neural network workloads are based on a Brain Floating Point (BF-16) data type. The major challenge we were facing was the incompatibility of gcc compilers to BF-16 datatype, which we addressed with a native BF-16 generator integrated to our functional model. Moreover, working with big GEMM (General Matrix Multiplication) or SpMM (Sparse Matrix Multiplication) Work Loads (Dense or Sparse) and debugging the failures related to data integrity is highly painstaking. In this paper, we are addressing the quality challenge of such a complex Neural Network Accelerator design by proposing a Functional Model-based scoreboard or Software model using SystemC. The proposed Functional Model executes the assembly code based on the ISA of the processor IP, decodes all instructions, and executes as expected to be done by the DUT. The said model would give a lot of visibility and debug capability in the DUT bringing up micro-steps of execution.

Keywords: ISA (instruction set architecture), NN (neural network), TLM (transaction-level modeling), GEMM (general matrix multiplication)

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Cindy Sahera, Sarwono Sutikno

Abstract:

Rapid technological developments also have negative impacts, namely the increasing criminal cases based on technology or cybercrime. One technique that can be used to conduct cybercrime attacks are phishing email. The issue is whether the user is aware that email can be misused by others so that it can harm the user's own? This research was conducted to measure the susceptibility of selected targets against email abuse. The objectives of this research are measurement of targets’ susceptibility and find vulnerability in email recipient. There are three steps being taken in this research, (1) the information gathering phase, (2) the design phase, and (3) the execution phase. The first step includes the collection of the information necessary to carry out an attack on a target. The next step is to make the design of an attack against a target. The last step is to send phishing emails to the target. The levels of susceptibility are three: level 1, level 2 and level 3. Level 1 indicates a low level of targets’ susceptibility, level 2 indicates the intermediate level of targets’ susceptibility, and level 3 indicates a high level of targets’ susceptibility. The results showed that users who are on level 1 and level 2 more that level 3, which means the user is not too careless. However, it does not mean the user to be safe. There are still vulnerabilities that may occur, such as automatic location detection when opening emails and automatic downloaded malware as user clicks a link in the email.

Keywords: cybercrime, email phishing, susceptibility, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Siphat Lim

Abstract:

The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Amr Sadek, Abdelrahaman Al-Qahtany, Turkey Salem Al-Qahtany

Abstract:

In this study, a backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) model has been used to predict the cooling and heating capacities of air conditioners (AC) under different conditions. Sufficiently large measurement results were obtained from the national energy-efficiency laboratories in Saudi Arabia and were used for the learning process of the ANN model. The parameters affecting the performance of the AC, including temperature, humidity level, specific heat enthalpy indoors and outdoors, and the air volume flow rate of indoor units, have been considered. These parameters were used as inputs for the ANN model, while the cooling and heating capacity values were set as the targets. A backpropagation ANN model with two hidden layers and one output layer could successfully correlate the input parameters with the targets. The characteristics of the ANN model including the input-processing, transfer, neurons-distance, topology, and training functions have been discussed. The performance of the ANN model was monitored over the training epochs and assessed using the mean squared error function. The model was then used to predict the performance of the AC under conditions that were not included in the measurement results. The optimum performance of the AC was also predicted under the different environmental conditions in Saudi Arabia. The uncertainty of the ANN model predictions has been evaluated taking into account the randomness of the data and lack of learning.

Keywords: artificial neural network, uncertainty of model predictions, efficiency of air conditioners, cooling and heating capacities

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Lindie Grebe

Abstract:

This paper reports on a study that explored the strategizing practices of professional accountants in the mining industry, based on Jarratt and Stiles’ dominant strategizing practice models framework. Drawing on a strategy-as-practice perspective, the paper recognises qualified professional accountants in strategic management such as Chief Executive Officers, as strategy practitioners that perform their strategizing practices and praxis within a specific context. The main findings of this paper were produced through semi-structured individual interviews with accountants that perform strategy on a business level in the South African mining industry. Qualitative data were analysed through conversation analysis over two coding-cycles. Findings describe accountant strategists as practitioners who challenge the dominant business model when a disconnect seems to exist between international corporate level strategy and business level strategy in the South African mining industry. Accountant strategy practitioners described their dominant strategizing practice model as incremental change during strategic planning and as a lived experience during strategy implementation. Findings portrayed these strategists as taking initiative as strategy leaders in a dynamic and volatile environment to combine their accounting background with strategic management and challenge the dominant business model. Understanding how accountant strategists perform strategizing offers insight into the social practice of strategic management. This understanding contributes to the body of knowledge on strategizing in the South African mining industry. In addition, knowledge on the transformation of accountants as strategists could provide valuable practice relevant insights for accounting educators and the accounting profession alike.

Keywords: accountant strategists, dominant strategizing practice models framework, mining industry, strategy-as-practice

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

Abstract:

A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Alice Civera, Mattia Cattaneo, Michele Meoli, Stefano Paleari

Abstract:

Despite the fact that more equal access to higher education has been an objective public policy for several decades, little is known about the effectiveness of alternative means for achieving such goal. Indeed, nowadays, high level of graduate population can be observed both in countries with the high and low level of fees, or high and low level of public expenditure in higher education. This paper surveys the extant literature providing some background on the economic concepts of the higher education market, and reviews key determinants of demand and supply. A theoretical model of aggregate demand and supply of higher education is derived, with the aim to facilitate the understanding of the challenges in today’s higher education systems, as well as the opportunities for development. The model is validated on some exemplary case studies describing the different relationship between the level of public investment and levels of graduate population and helps to derive general implications. In addition, using a two-stage least squares model, we build a macroeconomic model of supply and demand for European higher education. The model allows interpreting policies shifting either the supply or the demand for higher education, and allows taking into consideration contextual conditions with the aim of comparing divergent policies under a common framework. Results show that the same policy objective (i.e., increasing graduate population) can be obtained by shifting either the demand function (i.e., by strengthening student aid) or the supply function (i.e., by directly supporting higher education institutions). Under this theoretical perspective, the level of tuition fees is irrelevant, and empirically we can observe high levels of graduate population in both countries with high (i.e., the UK) or low (i.e., Germany) levels of tuition fees. In practice, this model provides a conceptual framework to help better understanding what are the external conditions that need to be considered, when planning a policy for increasing graduate population. Extrapolating a policy from results in different countries, under this perspective, is a poor solution when contingent factors are not addressed. The second implication of this conceptual framework is that policies addressing the supply or the demand function needs to address different contingencies. In other words, a government aiming at increasing graduate population needs to implement complementary policies, designing them according to the side of the market that is interested. For example, a ‘supply-driven’ intervention, through the direct financial support of higher education institutions, needs to address the issue of institutions’ moral hazard, by creating incentives to supply higher education services in efficient conditions. By contrast, a ‘demand-driven’ policy, providing student aids, need to tackle the students’ moral hazard, by creating an incentive to responsible behavior.

Keywords: graduates, higher education, higher education policies, tuition fees

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Sam Khozama, Ali M. Mayya

Abstract:

Breast cancer is one of the most common types in women. Early prediction of breast cancer helps physicians detect cancer in its early stages. Big cancer data needs a very powerful tool to analyze and extract predictions. Machine learning and deep learning are two of the most efficient tools for predicting cancer based on textual data. In this study, we developed a fusion model of two machine learning and deep learning models. To obtain the final prediction, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and ensemble learning with hyper parameters optimization are used, and score-level fusion is used. Experiments are done on the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) dataset after balancing and grouping the class categories. Five different training scenarios are used, and the tests show that the designed fusion model improved the performance by 3.3% compared to the individual models.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, cancer prediction, breast cancer, LSTM, fusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Wondmyibza Tsegaye Bayou, Johannes C. Nonner, Joost Heijkers

Abstract:

This study aimed to identify and estimate dynamic groundwater seepage rates using four comparative methods; the Darcian approach, the water balance approach, the tracer method, and modeling. The theoretical background to these methods is put together in this study. The methodology was applied to a case study area at Zegveld following the advice of the Water Board Stichtse Rijnlanden. Data collection has been from various offices and a field campaign in the winter of 2008/09. In this complex confining layer of the study area, the location of the phreatic groundwater table is at a shallow depth compared to the piezometric water level. Data were available for the model years 1989 to 2000 and winter 2008/09. The higher groundwater table shows predominately-downward seepage in the study area. Results of the study indicated that net recharge to the groundwater table (precipitation excess) and the ditch system are the principal sources for seepage across the complex confining layer. Especially in the summer season, the contribution from the ditches is significant. Water is supplied from River Meije through a pumping system to meet the ditches' water demand. The groundwater seepage rate was distributed unevenly throughout the study area at the nature reserve averaging 0.60 mm/day for the model years 1989 to 2000 and 0.70 mm/day for winter 2008/09. Due to data restrictions, the seepage rates were mainly determined based on the Darcian method. Furthermore, the water balance approach and the tracer methods are applied to compute the flow exchange within the ditch system. The site had various validated groundwater levels and vertical flow resistance data sources. The phreatic groundwater level map compared with TNO-DINO groundwater level data values overestimated the groundwater level depth by 28 cm. The hydraulic resistance values obtained based on the 3D geological map compared with the TNO-DINO data agreed with the model values before calibration. On the other hand, the calibrated model significantly underestimated the downward seepage in the area compared with the field-based computations following the Darcian approach.

Keywords: groundwater seepage, phreatic water table, piezometric water level, nature reserve, Zegveld, The Netherlands

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Khaled M Hama, Mohammed Al Magableh, Zaid Al Kuri .Ahmad Qayam

Abstract:

The study aimed to identify the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management from the faculty members' point of view, ‘the emerging Corona pandemic as a model’, as well as to identify the differences in the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management at the significance level (0.05 ≤ α) according to the study variables Gender Academic rank, years of experience, and identifying proposals that contribute to developing the performance of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management, ‘the Corona pandemic as a model’. The study was applied to a randomly selected sample of (72) faculty members at Jerash University, The researcher designed a tool for the study, which is the questionnaire, and it included two parts: the first part related to the personal data of the study sample members, and the second part was divided into five areas and (34) paragraphs to reveal the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management - the Corona pandemic as a model, it was confirmed From the validity and reliability of the tool, the study used the descriptive analytical method The study reached the following results: that the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management from the point of view of faculty members, ‘the emerging corona pandemic as a model’, came to a high degree, and there were no statistically significant differences at the level of statistical significance (α = 0.05) between the computational circles for the estimates of individuals The study sample for the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management is attributed to the study variables (gender, academic rank, and years of experience)

Keywords: academic leaders, crisis management, corona pandemic, Jerash University

Procedia PDF Downloads 14

Authors: L. Madouni, M. Ould Ouali, N. E. Hannachi

Abstract:

Two constitutive models for concrete are available in ABAQUS/Explicit, the Brittle Cracking Model and the Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model, and their suitability and limitations are well known. The aim of the present paper is to implement a damage-friction concrete constitutive model and to evaluate the performance of this model by comparing the predicted response with experimental data. The constitutive formulation of this material model is reviewed. In order to have consistent results, the parameter identification and calibration for the model have been performed. Several numerical simulations are presented in this paper, whose results allow for validating the capability of the proposed model for reproducing the typical nonlinear performances of concrete structures under different monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The results of the evaluation will be used for recommendations concerning the application and further improvements of the investigated model.

Keywords: Abaqus, concrete, constitutive model, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Somchai Buaroong

Abstract:

This research attempted to study information system success in dimensions of the user satisfaction level and to find the association between the independent factors of the user experiences, user knowledge, and user attitude. The study sample was selected using simple random sampling that comprised of 190 users who had used the Bangkok HIS. The data were reported from 165 questionnaires. The results found that the user satisfaction was at a moderate level, user satisfaction on the information quality and system quality was at a moderate level, while satisfaction on service quality was at a high level. The computer knowledge of the user was at a moderate level, and the user attitude was at a positive level. The participation of the user was at a low level and the participation in decision and in evaluation was at a low level; however participation in implementation and in benefit was at a moderate.

Keywords: information system success, hospital information system, user attitude, user satisfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Mohamed Bendahmane, Brahim Elfalaki, Mohammed Benattou

Abstract:

One of the major sources of learners' professional difficulties is their heterogeneity. Whether on cognitive, social, cultural or emotional level, learners being part of the same group have many differences. These differences do not allow to apply the same learning process at all learners. Thus, an optimal learning path for one, is not necessarily the same for the other. We present in this paper a model-oriented service to offer to each learner a personalized learning path to acquire the targeted skills.

Keywords: learning path, web service, trace analysis, personalization

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: M. G. N. A. S. Fernando

Abstract:

This study uses a researchable framework to improve the quality of ICT education and the Teaching Learning Assessment/ Evaluation (TLA/TLE) process. It utilizes existing resources while improving the methodologies along with pedagogical techniques and e-Learning approaches used in the secondary schools of Sri Lanka. The study was carried out in two phases. Phase I focused on investigating the factors which affect the quality of ICT education. Based on the key factors of phase I, the Phase II focused on the design of an Experimental Application Model with 6 activity levels. Each Level in the Activity Model covers one or more levels in the Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy. Towards further enhancement of activity levels, other pedagogical techniques (activity based learning, e-learning techniques, problem solving activities and peer discussions etc.) were incorporated to each level in the activity model as appropriate. The application model was validated by a panel of teachers including a domain expert and was tested in the school environment too. The validity of performance was proved using 6 hypotheses testing and other methodologies. The analysis shows that student performance with problem solving activities increased by 19.5% due to the different treatment levels used. Compared to existing process it was also proved that the embedded techniques (mixture of traditional and modern pedagogical methods and their applications) are more effective with skills development of teachers and students.

Keywords: activity models, Bloom’s taxonomy, ICT education, pedagogies

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: L. Sierra, N. Gambetta, M. A. Garcia-Benau, M. Orta

Abstract:

Financial scandals and financial crisis have led to an international debate on the value of auditing. In recent years there have been significant legislative reforms aiming to increase markets’ confidence in audit services. In particular, there has been a significant debate on the need to improve the communication of auditors with audit reports users as a way to improve its informative value and thus, to improve audit quality. The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) has proposed changes to the audit report standards. The International Standard on Auditing 701, Communicating Key Audit Matters (KAM) in the Independent Auditor's Report, has introduced new concepts that go beyond the auditor's opinion and requires to disclose the risks that, from the auditor's point of view, are more significant in the audited company information. Focusing on the companies included in the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 index, this study aims to focus on the analysis of the determinants of the number of KAM disclosed by the auditor in the audit report and moreover, the analysis of the determinants of the different type of KAM reported during the period 2013-2015. To test the hypotheses in the empirical research, two different models have been used. The first one is a linear regression model to identify the client’s characteristics, industry sector and auditor’s characteristics that are related to the number of KAM disclosed in the audit report. Secondly, a logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of the number of each KAM type disclosed in the audit report; in line with the risk-based approach to auditing financial statements, we categorized the KAM in 2 groups: Entity-level KAM and Accounting-level KAM. Regarding the auditor’s characteristics impact on the KAM disclosure, the results show that PwC tends to report a larger number of KAM while KPMG tends to report less KAM in the audit report. Further, PwC reports a larger number of entity-level risk KAM while KPMG reports less account-level risk KAM. The results also show that companies paying higher fees tend to have more entity-level risk KAM and less account-level risk KAM. The materiality level is positively related to the number of account-level risk KAM. Additionally, these study results show that the relationship between client’s characteristics and number of KAM is more evident in account-level risk KAM than in entity-level risk KAM. A highly leveraged company carries a great deal of risk, but due to this, they are usually subject to strong capital providers monitoring resulting in less account-level risk KAM. The results reveal that the number of account-level risk KAM is strongly related to the industry sector in which the company operates assets. This study helps to understand the UK audit market, provides information to auditors and finally, it opens new research avenues in the academia.

Keywords: FTSE 100, IAS 701, key audit matters, auditor’s characteristics, client’s characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

Abstract:

There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

Procedia PDF Downloads 457