Search results for: landslide hazard zonation

Authors: Hosein Almasikia

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Sarableh City is located in the west of Iran and in the seismic zone of Zagros. After the Azgole-Sarpol Zahab earthquake with a magnitude of 3.7 Richter on November 21, 2016, in some parts of Sarableh city, horrible sounds were heard by people. There is also a sound similar to the wear of the mill by some of the residents. Vibration studies and field investigations showed that these sounds have a geological origin and are emitted from the ground to the surface and may be related to geological hazards such as landslides, collapse of karstic zones, etc. In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the possible relationship between these abnormal sounds and geological hazards.

Keywords: Sarable, Zagros, landslide, karstic zone

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Authors: Marzie Shahini, Rasoul Mirghaderi

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This paper describes collapse assessments of a steel moment-frame high-rise tower with setback irregularity, designed per the 2010 ASCE7 code, under spectral-matched ground motion records. To estimate a safety margin against life-threatening collapse, an analytical model of the tower is subjected to a suite of ground motions with incremental intensities from maximum considered earthquake hazard level to the incipient collapse level. Capability of the structural system to collapse prevention is evaluated based on the similar methodology reported in FEMA P695. Structural performance parameters in terms of maximum/mean inter-story drift ratios, residual drift ratios, and maximum plastic hinge rotations are also compared to the acceptance criteria recommended by the TBI Guidelines. The results demonstrate that the structural system satisfactorily safeguards the building against collapse. Moreover, for this tower, the code-specified requirements in ASCE7-10 are reasonably adequate to satisfy seismic performance criteria developed in the TBI Guidelines for the maximum considered earthquake hazard level.

Keywords: high-rise buildings, set back, residual drift, seismic performance

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Authors: Ali Heidari

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This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez dam located in the Dez rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez dam operation data shows that in one of the best flood control records, % 17 of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez dam, Iran

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Authors: Fatima M. Kabbashi, Abdalla M. Abdalla, Hussam K. Hamad, Elias S. Hassan

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This study investigates the production of renewable energy (biogas) from biomedical hazard waste (blood) and eco-friendly disposal. Biogas is produced by the bacterial anaerobic digestion of biomaterial (blood). During digestion process bacterial feeding result in breaking down chemical bonds of the biomaterial and changing its features, by the end of the digestion (biogas production) the remains become manure as known. That has led to the economic and eco-friendly disposal of hazard biomedical waste (blood). The samples (Whole blood, Red blood cells 'RBCs', Blood platelet and Fresh Frozen Plasma ‘FFP’) are collected and measured in terms of carbon to nitrogen C/N ratio and total solid, then filled in connected flasks (three flasks) using water displacement method. The results of trails showed that the platelet and FFP failed to produce flammable gas, but via a gas analyzer, it showed the presence of the following gases: CO, HC, CO₂, and NOX. Otherwise, the blood and RBCs produced flammable gases: Methane-nitrous CH₃NO (99.45%), which has a blue color flame and carbon dioxide CO₂ (0.55%), which has red/yellow color flame. Methane-nitrous is sometimes used as fuel for rockets, some aircraft and racing cars.

Keywords: renewable energy, biogas, biomedical waste, blood, anaerobic digestion, eco-friendly disposal

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Authors: Njabulo Ncube, Elena Kulinskaya, Nicholas Steel, Dmitry Pshezhetskiy

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Life expectancy in the United Kingdom (UK) has been near constant since 2010, particularly for the individuals of 65 years and older. This trend has been also noted in several other countries. This slowdown in the increase of life expectancy was concurrent with the increase in the number of deaths caused by non-communicable diseases. Of particular concern is the world-wide exponential increase in the number of diabetes related deaths. Previous studies have reported increased mortality hazards among diabetics compared to non-diabetics, and on the differing effects of antidiabetic drugs on mortality hazards. This study aimed to estimate the all-cause mortality hazards and related life expectancies among type 2 diabetes (T2DM) patients in the UK using the time-variant Gompertz-Cox model with frailty. The study also aimed to understand the major causes of the change in life expectancy growth in the last decade. A total of 221 182 (30.8% T2DM, 57.6% Males) individuals aged 50 years and above, born between 1930 and 1960, inclusive, and diagnosed between 2000 and 2016, were selected from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database of the UK primary care data and followed up to 31 December 2016. About 13.4% of participants died during the follow-up period. The overall all-cause mortality hazard ratio of T2DM compared to non-diabetic controls was 1.467 (1.381-1.558) and 1.38 (1.307-1.457) when diagnosed between 50 to 59 years and 60 to 74 years, respectively. The estimated life expectancies among T2DM individuals without further comorbidities diagnosed at the age of 60 years were 2.43 (1930-1939 birth cohort), 2.53 (1940-1949 birth cohort) and 3.28 (1950-1960 birth cohort) years less than those of non-diabetic controls. However, the 1950-1960 birth cohort had a steeper hazard function compared to the 1940-1949 birth cohort for both T2DM and non-diabetic individuals. In conclusion, mortality hazards for people with T2DM continue to be higher than for non-diabetics. The steeper mortality hazard slope for the 1950-1960 birth cohort might indicate the sub-population contributing to a slowdown in the growth of the life expectancy.

Keywords: T2DM, Gompetz-Cox model with frailty, all-cause mortality, life expectancy

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Authors: Ahmed Elwaleed, Huiho Jeong, Ali H. Abdelbagi, Nguyen Thi Quynh, Koji Arizono, Yasuhiro Ishibashi

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Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) poses substantial risks to both human health and the environment, particularly through contamination of soil, water, and air. Prolonged exposure to ASGM-contaminated soils can lead to acute or chronic mercury toxicity. This study assesses the human health risks associated with mercury-contaminated soils and tailings in the Alebediah mining community in Sudan. Soil samples were collected from various locations within Alebediah, including ASGM areas, farmlands, and residential areas, along with tailings samples commonly found within ASGM sites. The evaluation of potential health risks to humans included the computation of the estimated daily intake (AvDI), the hazard quotient (HQ), and the hazard index (HI) for both adults and children. The primary exposure route identified as potentially posing a significant health risk was the volatilization of mercury from tailings samples, where mercury concentrations reached up to 25.5 mg/kg. In contrast, other samples within the ASGM area showed elevated mercury levels but did not present significant health risks, with HI values below 1. However, all areas indicated HI values above 1 for the remaining exposure routes. The study observed a decrease in mercury concentration with increasing distance from the ASGM community. Additionally, soil samples revealed elevated mercury levels exceeding background values, prompting an assessment of contamination levels using the enrichment factor (EF). The findings indicated that farmlands and residential areas exhibited depleted EF, while areas surrounding the ASGM community showed none to moderate pollution. In contrast, ASGM areas exhibited significant to extreme pollution. A GIS map was generated to visually depict the extent of mercury pollution, facilitating communication with stakeholders and decision-makers.

Keywords: mercury pollution, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, health risk assessment, hazard index, soil and tailings, enrichment factor

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Authors: Bayu Rizky Pratama, Hardiansyah Nur Sahaya

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Riau Province is the worst emitter for forest burning which causes the huge scale of externality such as declining of forest habitat, health disease, and climate change impact. Indonesia forum of budget transparency for Riau Province (FITRA) reported the length of forest burning reached about 186.069 hectares which is 7,13% of total national forest burning disaster, consisted of 107.000 hectares of peatland and the rest 79.069 hectares of mineral land. Anti-fire group, a voluntary group next to the forest, to help in protecting the forest burning and heavily smoke residual has been established but unfortunately the implementation still far from expectation. This research will emphasize on (1) how the anti-fire group contribute to fire hazard tackling; (2) the identification of SWOT analysis to enhance the group benefit; and (3) government policy implication to maximize the role of Anti-fire group and reduce the case of forest burning as well as heavily smoke which can raise climate change impact. As the observation found some weakness from SWOT identification such as (1) lack of education and training; (2) facility in extinguishing the fire damage; (3) law for economic incentive; (4) communication and field experience; (5) also the reporting the fire case.

Keywords: anti-fire group, forest burning impact, SWOT, climate change mitigation

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Authors: Habila Nuhu

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Natural radionuclides in the environment can significantly contribute to human exposure to ionizing radiation. The knowledge of their levels in an environment can help the radiological protection agencies in policymaking. Measurement of natural radioactivity in major soils in the tin mining state of Perak Malaysia has been conducted using an HPGe detector. Seventy (70) soil samples were collected at widely distributed locations in the state. Six major soil types were sampled, and thirteen districts around the state were covered. The following were the results of the 226Ra (238U), 228Ra (232Th), and 40K activity in the soil samples: 226Ra (238U) has a mean activity concentration of 191.83 Bq kg⁻¹, more than five times the UNSCEAR reference limits of 35 Bq kg⁻¹. The mean activity concentration of 228Ra (232Th) with a value of 232.41 Bq kg⁻¹ is over seven times the UNSCEAR reference values of 30 Bq kg⁻¹. The average concentration of 40K activity was 275.24 Bq kg⁻¹, which was less than the UNSCEAR reference limit of 400 Bq Kg⁻¹. The range of external hazards index (Hₑₓ) values was from 1.03 to 2.05, while the internal hazards index (Hin) was from 1.48 to 3.08. The Hex and Hin should be less than one for minimal external and internal radiation threats as well as secure use of soil material for building construction. The Hₑₓ and Hin results generally indicate that while using the soil types and their derivatives as building materials in the study area, care must be taken.

Keywords: activity concentration, hazard index, soil samples, tin mining

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Authors: Elias Kodjo Kekesi

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This study seeks to investigate a critical but neglected area in disaster and emergency management in Ghana. It explores aspects of work within one of the safety-critical work environments that expose workers to psychological, social and physical harm. With much attention to crises’ survivors, deceased and their families, this research attempts to answer a key question: ‘What happens to the rescuer’? Emergency response is associated with immense and unprecedented pressure that puts responders’ physical, mental and social well-being at risk. Despite the negative psychological outcomes, scholars argue that being in a traumatic situation may trigger positive outcomes for some people. Thus, the study also focuses on the positive impact of working in a risky crisis environment. Additionally, people’s interpretation of negative experiences or exposure to adverse conditions differ owing to their personal resources which explains why some people may be negatively affected whiles others are positively impacted. To examine these complex nuances, an exploratory sequential mixed method design is adopted. This paper will highlight the findings of study one, which explores the underlying themes emerging from the Ghanaian disaster and emergency response environment regarding psychosocial hazard exposures and the corresponding outcomes.

Keywords: psychosocial hazards, organisational outcomes, qualitative research, Ghana

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Authors: M. Tammaro, S. Manzo, J. Rimauro, A. Salluzzo, S. Schiavo

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The solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are considered to have a negligible environmental impact compared to the fossil energy. Therefore also the waste management and the corresponding potential environmental hazard needs to be considered. The case of the photovoltaic panel is unique because the time lag from the manufacturing to the decommissioning as waste usually takes 25-30 years. Then the environmental hazard associated with end life of PV panels has been largely related to their metal contents. The principal concern regards the presence of heavy metals as Cd in thin film (TF) modules or Pb and Cr in crystalline silicon (c-Si) panels. At the end of life of PV panels, these dangerous substances could be released in the environment, if special requirements for their disposal are not adopted. Nevertheless, in literature, only a few experimental study about metal emissions from silicon crystalline/thin film panels and the corresponding environmental effect are present. As part of a study funded by the Italian national consortium for the waste collection and recycling (COBAT), the present work was aimed to analyze experimentally the potential release into the environment of hazardous elements, particularly metals, from PV waste. In this paper, for the first time, eighteen releasable metals a large number of photovoltaic panels, by c-Si and TF, manufactured in the last 30 years, together with the environmental effects by a battery of ecotoxicological tests, were investigated. Leaching tests are conducted on the crushed samples of PV module. The test is conducted according to Italian and European Standard procedure for hazard assessment of the granular waste and of the sludge. The sample material is shaken for 24 hours in HDPE bottles with an overhead mixer Rotax 6.8 VELP at indoor temperature and using pure water (18 MΩ resistivity) as leaching solution. The liquid-to-solid ratio was 10 (L/S=10, i.e. 10 liters of water per kg of solid). The ecotoxicological tests were performed in the subsequent 24 hours. A battery of toxicity test with bacteria (Vibrio fisheri), algae (Pseudochirneriella subcapitata) and crustacea (Daphnia magna) was carried out on PV panel leachates obtained as previously described and immediately stored in dark and at 4°C until testing (in the next 24 hours). For understand the actual pollution load, a comparison with the current European and Italian benchmark limits was performed. The trend of leachable metal amount from panels in relation to manufacturing years was then highlighted in order to assess the environmental sustainability of PV technology over time. The experimental results were very heterogeneous and show that the photovoltaic panels could represent an environmental hazard. The experimental results showed that the amounts of some hazardous metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Ni), for c-Si and TF, exceed the law limits and they are a clear indication of the potential environmental risk of photovoltaic panels "as a waste" without a proper management.

Keywords: photovoltaic panel, environment, ecotoxicity, metals emission

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: Fereshteh Pourmohammad, Mehdi Zare

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The city of Karaj, having a population of 2.2 millions (est. 2022) is located in the South West of Alborz Mountain Belt in Northern Iran. The region is known to be a highly active seismic zone. This study is focused on the geological and seismological analyses within a radius of 200 km from the center of Karaj. There are identified five seismic zones and seven linear seismic sources. The maximum magnitude was calculated for the seismic zones. Scine tghe seismicity catalog is incomplete, we have used a parametric-historic algorithm and the Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) method was used to calculate seismicity parameters, and the return periods and the probability frequency of recurrence of the earthquake magnitude in each zone obtained for 475-years return period. According to the calculations, the highest and lowest earthquake magnitudes of 7.6 and 6.2 were respectively obtained in Zones 1 and 4. This result is a new and extremely important in view point of earthquake risk in a densely population city. The maximum strong horizontal ground motion for the 475-years return period 0.42g and for 2475-year return period 0.70g also the maximum strong vertical ground motion for 475-years return period 0.25g and 2475-years return period 0.44g was calculated using attenuation relationships. These acceleration levels are new, and are obtained to be about 25% higher than presented values in the Iranian building code.

Keywords: seismic zones, ground motion, return period, hazard analysis

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Authors: Beatriz Martinez-Pastor, Maria Nogal, Alan O'Connor

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During the last years, the number of extreme weather events has increased. A variety of extreme weather events, including river floods, rain-induced landslides, droughts, winter storms, wildfire, and hurricanes, have threatened and damaged many different regions worldwide. These events have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems resulting in high social, economical and environmental costs. These events have a huge impact in transport systems. Since, transport networks are completely exposed to every kind of climatological perturbations, and its performance is closely related with these events. When a traffic network is affected by a climatological hazard, the quality of its service is threatened, and the level of the traffic conditions usually decreases. With the aim of understanding this process, the concept of resilience has become most popular in the area of transport. Transport resilience analyses the behavior of a traffic network when a perturbation takes place. This holistic concept studies the complete process, from the beginning of the perturbation until the total recovery of the system, when the perturbation has finished. Many concepts are included in the definition of resilience, such as vulnerability, redundancy, adaptability, and safety. Once the resilience of a transport network can be evaluated, in this case, the methodology used is a dynamic equilibrium-restricted assignment model that allows the quantification of the concept, the next step is its improvement. Through the improvement of this concept, it will be possible to create transport networks that are able to withstand and have a better performance under the presence of climatological hazards. Analyzing the impact of a perturbation in a traffic network, it is observed that the response of the different links, which are part of the network, can be completely different from one to another. Consequently and due to this effect, many questions arise, as what makes a link more critical before an extreme weather event? or how is it possible to identify these critical links? With this aim, and knowing that most of the times the owners or managers of the transport systems have limited resources, the identification of the critical links of a transport network before extreme weather events, becomes a crucial objective. For that reason, using the available resources in the areas that will generate a higher improvement of the resilience, will contribute to the global development of the network. Therefore, this paper wants to analyze what kind of characteristic makes a link a critical one when an extreme weather event damages a transport network and finally identify them.

Keywords: critical links, extreme weather events, hazard, resilience, transport network

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Authors: Semira Zeru Haileslassie

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Lack of awareness and practices of PEP treatment were observed among respondents, but they had a better attitude towards PEP. To this end, a formal training for all respondents regarding PEP for HIV prior to their clinical attachments is of utmost importance. The training ought to incorporate a brief clarification with respect to the unpleasant impact of non-adherence that essentially incorporate destitute treatment result and most prominent hazard of resistance and few given as a major cause for non-compliance to PEP, common transient side-effects of PEP and its administrations ought to be cloister educated healthcare specialists to diminish its effect on adherence. Besides, the propensity of detailing needle adhere harm was destitute that needs endeavors to progress. Progressing the culture of detailing and making the detailing handle simple is very necessary. In reality, announcing such wounds as early as conceivable will educate others not to commit same issue once more and, for the most part, will empower stakeholders to intercede the issue sometime prior to it re-occur. At long last, as distant as get up and go utilize has cleared out with so numerous bothers, risk decrease is the foremost choice. With this, taking the increased significance of protective barriers so as to decrease the hazard of exposure to HIV, distinctive stakeholders (the healing center hardware supply chain director, the HIV/ Helps clinic, the clinic chief, hardware and supply quality confirmation group, and other authoritative bodies) ought to work together in co-ordination to secure the supply and guarantee the quality of those crucial protective barriers and to advance demand health laborers to continuously wear protective barriers when exposed to HIV hazard components as well as to dispose appropriately once done. At long last, we prescribe future examiners to conduct planned multicenter studies with extra goals (counting indicator investigation) for way better generalization and result. In spite of satisfactory information and favorable state of mind towards PEP for HIV in most of the respondents, this study uncovered that there were delays in starting, low utilization, and fragmented use of the prescribed PEP. So, health care staff need to progress their practice on PEP of HIV through diverse training program related to PEP of HIV.

Keywords: HIV infection, prophylaxis, knowledge, attitude

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Authors: Natalia Limones, Javier Marzo, Marcus Wijnen, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila

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In this research we developed a structured approach for the detection of areas under the highest levels of drought risk that is suitable for data-scarce environments. The methodology is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in successive exercises. The research reviews the history of drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012, focusing on the meteorological and the hydrological drought types. Only global open data information coming from modeling or remote sensing was used for the description of the hydroclimatological variables since there is almost no ground data in this part of the country. Also, the study intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully understand the risk. As a result, a map of the areas under the highest risk in the south of the country is produced, which is one of the main outputs of this work. It was also possible to confirm that the set of indicators used revealed different drought vulnerability profiles in the South of Angola and, as a result, several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts were recognized. The results demonstrated that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that triggered an unprecedent exhaustion of the surface water resources, and that the majority of their socioeconomic impacts started soon after the identified onset of these processes.

Keywords: drought risk, exposure, hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal

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Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM_2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.

Keywords: air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter

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Authors: Lyka Selene Magnayi, Marcos Vinas, Roseanne Ramos

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As the real estate industry continually grows in the Philippines, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide advantages in generating spatial databases for efficient delivery of information and services. The real estate sector is not only providing qualitative data about real estate properties but also utilizes various spatial aspects of these properties for different applications such as hazard mapping and assessment. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) model and a spatial database of real estate properties in Fort Bonifacio, Taguig City are developed using GIS and SketchUp. Spatial datasets include political boundaries, buildings, road network, digital terrain model (DTM) derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) image, Google Earth satellite imageries, and hazard maps. Multiple model layers were created based on property listings by a partner real estate company, including existing and future property buildings. Actual building dimensions, building facade, and building floorplans are incorporated in these 3D models for geovisualization. Hazard model layers are determined through spatial overlays, and different scenarios of hazards are also presented in the models. Animated maps and walkthrough videos were created for company presentation and evaluation. Model evaluation is conducted through client surveys requiring scores in terms of the appropriateness, information content, and design of the 3D models. Survey results show very satisfactory ratings, with the highest average evaluation score equivalent to 9.21 out of 10. The output maps and videos obtained passing rates based on the criteria and standards set by the intended users of the partner real estate company. The methodologies presented in this study were found useful and have remarkable advantages in the real estate industry. This work may be extended to automated mapping and creation of online spatial databases for better storage, access of real property listings and interactive platform using web-based GIS.

Keywords: geovisualization, geographic information systems, GIS, real estate, spatial database, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Narendra Kumar

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This study uses data from the ‘National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) 2005-06’ to investigate the predictors of infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. The cross tabulation, life table survival estimates and Cox proportional hazard model techniques have been used to estimate the predictors of infant and child mortality. The life table survival estimates for infant and child mortality shows that infant mortality in female child is lower in comparison to male child but with child mortality, the rates are higher for female in comparison to male child and the Cox proportional hazard model also give highly significant in female in comparison to male child. The infant and child mortality rates among poor households highest in the Central region followed by North and Northeast region and the lowest in South region in comparison to all regions of India. Education of respondent has been found a significant characteristics in both analyzes, further birth interval, respondent occupation, caste/tribe and place of delivery has substantial impact on infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. Finally these findings specified that an increase in parents’ education, improve health care services and improve socioeconomic conditions of low economic households which should in turn raise infant and child survival and should decrease child mortality among low economic households in India.

Keywords: infant, child, mortality, socio-economic, India

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

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In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems

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Authors: S. Houssaini, L. Bahi

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The motorway segment between Tangier and Oued R’mel has experienced, since the beginning of building works, significant instability and landslides linked to a number of geological, hydrogeological and geothermic factors affecting the different formations. The landslides observed are not fully understood, despite many studies conducted on this segment. This study aims at producing new methods to better explain the phenomena behind the landslides, taking into account the geotechnical and geothermic contexts. This analysis builds up on previous studies and geotechnical data collected in the field. The final body of data collected shall be processed through the Plaxis software for a better and customizable view of the landslide problems in the area, which will help to find solutions and stabilize land in the area.

Keywords: landslides, modeling, risk, stabilization

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Authors: Urooj Saeed, Sajid Rashid Ahmad, Iqra Khalid, Sahar Mirza, Imtiaz Younas

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Pakistan, a flood-prone country, has experienced worst floods in the recent past which have caused extensive damage to the urban and rural areas by loss of lives, damage to infrastructure and agricultural fields. Poor flood management system in the country has projected the risks of damages as the increasing frequency and magnitude of floods are felt as a consequence of climate change; affecting national economy directly or indirectly. To combat the needs of flood emergency, this paper focuses on remotely sensed data based approach for rapid mapping and monitoring of flood extent and its damages so that fast dissemination of information can be done, from local to national level. In this research study, spatial extent of the flooding caused by heavy rains of 2014 has been mapped by using space borne data to assess the crop damages and affected population in sixteen districts of Punjab. For this purpose, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to daily mark the flood extent by using Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI). The highest flood value data was integrated with the LandScan 2014, 1km x 1km grid based population, to calculate the affected population in flood hazard zone. It was estimated that the floods covered an area of 16,870 square kilometers, with 3.0 million population affected. Moreover, to assess the flood damages, Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) aided with spectral signatures was applied on Landsat image to attain the thematic layers of healthy (0.54 million acre) and damaged crops (0.43 million acre). The study yields that the population of Jhang district (28% of 2.5 million population) was affected the most. Whereas, in terms of crops, Jhang and Muzzafargarh are the ‘highest damaged’ ranked district of floods 2014 in Punjab. This study was completed within 24 hours of the peak flood time, and proves to be an effective methodology for rapid assessment of damages due to flood hazard

Keywords: flood hazard, space borne data, object based image analysis, rapid damage assessment

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Authors: Chen Bo, Wen Zengping

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Based on the results of previous studies, we focus on the research of real ground motion selection and scaling method for structural performance-based seismic evaluation using nonlinear dynamic analysis. The input of earthquake ground motion should be determined appropriately to make them compatible with the site-specific hazard level considered. Thus, an optimized selection and scaling method are established including the use of not only Monte Carlo simulation method to create the stochastic simulation spectrum considering the multivariate lognormal distribution of target spectrum, but also a spectral shape parameter. Its applications in structural fragility analysis are demonstrated through case studies. Compared to the previous scheme with no consideration of the uncertainty of target spectrum, the method shown here can make sure that the selected records are in good agreement with the median value, standard deviation and spectral correction of the target spectrum, and greatly reveal the uncertainty feature of site-specific hazard level. Meanwhile, it can help improve computational efficiency and matching accuracy. Given the important infection of target spectrum’s uncertainty on structural seismic fragility analysis, this work can provide the reasonable and reliable basis for structural seismic evaluation under scenario earthquake environment.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling method, seismic fragility analysis, spectral shape

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Authors: Rajender Dahiya

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Investigation outcomes of major process incidents have been consistent for decades and validate that the causes and consequences are often identical. The debate remains as we continue to experience similar process incidents even with enormous development of new tools, technologies, industry standards, codes, regulations, and learning processes? The objective of this paper is to investigate the most common causes of major industrial incidents and reveal industry challenges and best practices to prevent such incidents. The author, in his current role, performs audits and inspections of a variety of high-hazard industries in North America, including petroleum refineries, chemicals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, etc. In this paper, he shares real life scenarios, examples, and case studies from high hazards operating facilities including key challenges and best practices. This case study will provide a clear understanding of the importance of near miss incident investigation. The incident was a Safe operating limit excursion. The case describes the deficiencies in management programs, the competency of employees, and the culture of the corporation that includes hazard identification and risk assessment, maintaining the integrity of safety-critical equipment, operating discipline, learning from process safety near misses, process safety competency, process safety culture, audits, and performance measurement. Failure to identify the hazards and manage the risks of highly hazardous materials and processes is one of the primary root-causes of an incident, and failure to learn from past incidents is the leading cause of the recurrence of incidents. Several investigations of major incidents discovered that each showed several warning signs before occurring, and most importantly, all were preventable. The author will discuss why preventable incidents were not prevented and review the mutual causes of learning failures from past major incidents. The leading causes of past incidents are summarized below. Management failure to identify the hazard and/or mitigate the risk of hazardous processes or materials. This process starts early in the project stage and continues throughout the life cycle of the facility. For example, a poorly done hazard study such as HAZID, PHA, or LOPA is one of the leading causes of the failure. If this step is performed correctly, then the next potential cause is. Management failure to maintain the integrity of safety critical systems and equipment. In most of the incidents, mechanical integrity of the critical equipment was not maintained, safety barriers were either bypassed, disabled, or not maintained. The third major cause is Management failure to learn and/or apply learning from the past incidents. There were several precursors before those incidents. These precursors were either ignored altogether or not taken seriously. This paper will conclude by sharing how a well-implemented operating management system, good process safety culture, and competent leaders and staff contributed to managing the risks to prevent major incidents.

Keywords: incident investigation, risk management, loss prevention, process safety, accident prevention

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Authors: Shirin Jalili, Ramin Ghasemi

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Lumbar microdiscectomy is the most commonly performed spinal surgery strategy; it is regularly performed to lighten the indications and signs of sciatica within the lower back and leg caused by a lumbar disc herniation. This surgery aims to progress leg pain, reestablish function, and enable a return to ordinary day-by-day exercises. Rates of lumbar disc surgery show critical geographic varieties recommending changing treatment criteria among working specialists. Few population-based considers have investigated the hazard of reoperation after disc surgery, and regional or inter specialty varieties within the reoperations are obscure. The conventional approach to recouping from lumbar microdiscectomy has been to restrain bending, lifting, or turning for a least 6 weeks in arrange to anticipate the disc from herniating once more. Traditionally, patients were exhorted to limit post-operative action, which was accepted to decrease the hazard of disc herniation and progressive insecurity. In modern hone, numerous specialists don't limit understanding of postoperative action due to the discernment this practice is pointless. There's a need of thinks about highlighting the result by distinctive scores or parameters after surgery for repetitive circle herniations of the lumbar spine at the starting herniation location. This study will evaluate the quality of life after surgical treatment of recurrent herniations with distinctive standardized approved result instruments.

Keywords: post-operative activity, disc, quality of life, treatment, movements

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Buket Canbaz Öztürk, N. Füsun Çam, Günseli Yaprak, Osman Candan

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The external terrestrial radiation exposure is related to the types of rock from which the soils originate. Higher radiation levels are associated with igneous rocks, such as granite, and lower levels with sedimentary rocks. Therefore, this study aims to assess the gamma radiation exposure of soils associated with granitic rocks in Kapıdağ Peninsula, Turkey. In the ongoing study, a comprehensive survey carried out systematically as a part of the environmental monitoring program on radiologic impact of the granitoid areas in Western Anatolia. The activity measurements of the gamma emitters (238U, 232Th and 40K) in the surface soil samples and the granitic rocks carried out by means of NaI(Tl) gamma-ray spectrometry system. To evaluate the radiological hazard of the natural radioactivity, the absorbed dose rate (D), the annual effective dose rate (AED), the radium equivalent activity (Raeq) and the external (Hex) hazard index were calculated according to the UNSCEAR 2000 report. The corresponding absorbed dose rates in air from all natural radionuclides were always much lower than 200 nGy h-1 and did not exceed the typical range of worldwide average values noticed in the UNSCEAR (2000) report. Furthermore, the correlation between soil and granitic rock samples were utilized, and external gamma radiation exposure distribution was mapped in Kapıdağ Peninsula.

Keywords: external absorbed dose, granitic rocks, Kapıdağ Peninsula, soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

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Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Habib Abida, Noura Dahri

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Flash floods are among the most serious natural hazards that have disastrous environmental and human impacts. They are associated with exceptional rain events, characterized by short durations, very high intensities, rapid flows and small spatial extent. Flash floods happen very suddenly and are difficult to forecast. They generally cause damage to agricultural crops and property, infrastructures, and may even result in the loss of human lives. The city of Gabes (South-eastern Tunisia) has been exposed to numerous damaging floods because of its mild topography, clay soil, high urbanization rate and erratic rainfall distribution. The risks associated with this situation are expected to increase further in the future because of climate change, deemed responsible for the increase of the frequency and the severity of this natural hazard. Recently, exceptional events hit Gabes City causing death and major property losses. A major flooding event hit the region on June 2nd, 2014, causing human deaths and major material losses. It resulted in the stagnation of storm water in the numerous low zones of the study area, endangering thereby human health and causing disastrous environmental impacts. The characterization of flood risk in Gabes Watershed (South-eastern Tunisia) is considered an important step for flood management. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method coupled with Monte Carlo simulation and geographic information system were applied to delineate and characterize flood areas. A spatial database was developed based on geological map, digital elevation model, land use, and rainfall data in order to evaluate the different factors susceptible to affect flood analysis. Results obtained were validated by remote sensing data for the zones that showed very high flood hazard during the extreme rainfall event of June 2014 that hit the study basin. Moreover, a survey was conducted from different areas of the city in order to understand and explore the different causes of this disaster, its extent and its consequences.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flash floods, Gabes, remote sensing, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Eric Berry White

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The paper examines the causality between solid waste pollution and lockdown. Particularly in 2020, the world experiences the takeover of the Corona virus pandemic, and most countries decided to adopt lockdown measure as the best solution to curtail the spread of the virus. On March 20, 2020, the Government of Liberia implemented a curfew that starts from 3:00PM to 6:00AM. This means that no unauthorized person is allowed to be in the streets during this time. In most developing countries, the issue of public waste and environmental hazard pollution tend to have a high effect among the slum communities where there are markets. This research covers 6 slums communities around the two biggest market hubs within Monrovia, and the result shows that the lockdown measure significantly reduced public waste pollution by reducing the movement of marketers in slum communities , where limited educational and sensitization for young people is reflected on their job market exclusion, jobless circle, and youth workforce concentration in informal work market. The study discovered that with public awareness and sensitization with females, solid waste could be reduced by 13 percentage point. But there is no evidence that awareness among male conduce pollution. within affected communities, Despite the impact of the lockdown on food consumption, these results emphasized that with the right monitoring of waste and aware, pollution could be reduce. By understanding these results and implementing the best policy, the paper recommends that dump sites be close at certain hours.

Keywords: lockdown, environmental, pollution, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Ashim Sattar, Ajanta Goswami, Anil V. Kulkarni

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) highly contributes to mountain hazards in the Himalaya. Over the past decade, high altitude lakes in the Himalaya has been showing notable growth in their size and number. The key reason is rapid retreat of its glacier front. Hydrodynamic modeling GLOF using shallow water equations (SWE) would result in understanding its impact in the downstream region. The present study incorporates remote sensing based ice thickness modeling to determine the future extent of the Dhauliganga Lake to map the over deepening extent around the highest lake in the Dhauliganga basin. The maximum future volume of the lake calculated using area-volume scaling is used to model a GLOF event. The GLOF hydrograph is routed along the channel using one dimensional and two dimensional model to understand the flood wave propagation till it reaches the 1st hydropower station located 72 km downstream of the lake. The present extent of the lake calculated using SENTINEL 2 images is 0.13 km². The maximum future extent of the lake, mapped by investigating the glacier bed has a calculated scaled volume of 3.48 x 106 m³. The GLOF modeling releasing the future volume of the lake resulted in a breach hydrograph with a peak flood of 4995 m³/s at just downstream of the lake. Hydraulic routing

Keywords: GLOF, glacial lake outburst floods, mountain hazard, Central Himalaya, future projection

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Marref C., Marref S., Melakhssou M. A.

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The halophytic vegetation of Chott Gamra (Gadaïne Eco-complex, High Plateaus of Eastern Algeria) is characterized by a very rich cover. It is structured according to the variation in soil salinity and moisture. The objective of this study is to understand the biodiversity, distribution, and classification of halophytic vegetation. This wetland is characterized by a Mediterranean climate in the semi-arid to cool winter stage. The wetland area of the High Plateaus of Eastern Algeria constitutes a biodiversity reservoir. It is considered exceptional, although it remains little explored and documented to date. The study was conducted over consecutive spring seasons (2020/2021). Indeed, the inventory we established includes forty plant species belonging to fourteen different families, the majority of which are resistant to salinity and drought. These halophytic species that thrive there establish themselves in bands according to their tolerance threshold to salinity and their affinity to the hygroscopic level of the soil. Thus, other edaphic factors may come into play in the zonation of halophytes in saline environments. Species belonging to the Juncaceae and Poaceae families dominate by far the non-flooded vegetation cover of this site. These plants are perfectly adapted to saline environments.

Keywords: halophytes, biodiversity, salinity, wetland

Procedia PDF Downloads 17