Search results for: inflation%20rate

Authors: Tadele Tesfay Teame, Tsegaye Abrehame, Hágen István Zsombor

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Liquidity is one of the main concerns for banks, and thus achieving the optimum level of liquidity is critical. The main objective of this study is to discover the driving force of selected private commercial banks’ liquidity. In order to achieve the objective explanatory research design and quantitative research approach were used. Data has been collected from a secondary source of the sampled Ethiopian private commercial banks’ financial statements, the National Bank of Ethiopia, and the Minister of Finance, the sample covering the period from 2011 to 2022. Bank-specific and macroeconomic variables were analyzed by using the balanced panel fixed effect regression model. Bank’s liquidity ratio is measured by the total liquid asset to total deposits. The findings of the study revealed that bank size, capital adequacy, loan growth rate, and non-performing loan had a statistically significant impact on private commercial banks’ liquidity, and annual inflation rate and interest rate margin had a statistically significant impact on the liquidity of Ethiopian private commercial banks measured by L1 (bank liquidity). Thus, banks in Ethiopia should not only be concerned about internal structures and policies/procedures, but they must consider both the internal environment and the macroeconomic environment together in developing their strategies to efficiently manage their liquidity position and private commercial banks to maintain their financial proficiency shall have bank liquidity management policy by assimilating both bank-specific and macro-economic variables.

Keywords: liquidity, Ethiopian private commercial banks, liquidity ratio, panel data regression analysis

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction: The pandemic and the current economic crisis have created problems for entrepreneurship and, therefore for start-up entrepreneurs. The paper presents the challenges of start-up entrepreneurs in Georgia in the time of pandemic and the analysis of the state economic policy measures. Despite many problems, the study found that in 54.2% of start-ups surveyed under the pandemic, innovation opportunities were growing. It can be stated that the pandemic was a good opportunity to increase the innovative capacity of the enterprise. 52% of the surveyed start-up entrepreneurs managed to adapt to the current situation and increase the sale of their products/services through remote channels. As for the assessment of state support measures by start-up entrepreneurs, a large number of Georgian start-ups do not assess the measures implemented by the state positively. Methodology: The research process uses methods of analysis and synthesis, quantitative and qualitative, interview/survey, grouping, relative and average values, graphing, comparison, data analysis, and others. Main Findings: Studies have shown that for the start-up entrepreneurs, the main problem remains: inaccessible funding, workers' qualifications gap, inflation, taxes, regulation, political instability, inadequate provision of infrastructure, amount of taxes, and other factors. Conclusions: The state should take the following measures to support business start-ups: create an attractive environment for investment, availability of soft loans, creation of an insurance system, infrastructure development, increase the effectiveness of tax policy (simplicity of the tax system, clarity, optimal tax level ); promote export growth (develop strategy for opening up international markets, build up a broad marketing network, etc.).

Keywords: start-up entrepreneurs, startups, start-up entrepreneurs support programs, start-up entrepreneurs support economic policy

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Authors: Odunayo Olawuyi Fadodun

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Dielectric elastomers (DEs) are a type of intelligent materials with salient features like electromechanical coupling, lightweight, fast actuation speed, low cost and high energy density that make them good candidates for numerous engineering applications. This paper adopts a new nonlinear electroelastic constitutive theory to examine radial deformation of a pressurized thick-walled spherical shell of soft dielectric material with compliant electrodes on its inner and outer surfaces. A general formular for the internal pressure, which depends on the deformation and a potential difference between boundary electrodes or uniform surface charge distributions, is obtained in terms of special function. To illustrate the effects of an applied electric field on the mechanical behaviour of the shell, three different energy functions with distinct mechanical properties are employed for numerical purposes. The observed behaviour of the shells is preserved in the presence of an applied electric field, and the influence of the field due to a potential difference declines more slowly with the increasing deformation to that produced by a surface charge. Counterpart results are then presented for the thin-walled shell approximation as a limiting case of a thick-walled shell without restriction on the energy density. In the absence of internal pressure, it is obtained that inflation is caused by the application of an electric field. The resulting numerical solutions of the theory presented in this work are in agreement with those predicted by the generally adopted Dorfmann and Ogden model.

Keywords: constitutive theory, elastic dielectric, electroelasticity, finite deformation, nonlinear response, spherical shell

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Authors: Yeshanew Ayele Tiruneh, L. M. Modiba, S. M. Zuma

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Introduction- Healthcare waste is any waste generated by health care facilities, considered potentially hazardous to health. Solid health care waste is categorised into infectious and non-infectious wastes. Infectious waste is material suspected to contain pathogens. The non-infectious waste includes wastes that have not been in contact with infectious agents, hazardous chemicals, or radioactive substances. The purpose is to assess solid health care waste (SHCW) management practice toward developing guidelines. The setting is all health facilities found in Hossaena town. A mixed-method study design used. For the qualitative part, small purposeful samples were considered and large samples for the quantitative phase. Both samples were taken from the same population. Result - 17(3.1%) of health facility workers have hand washing facilities. 392 (72.6%) of the participants agree on the availability of one or more of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the facility ‘’the reason for the absence of some of the PPEs like boots, goggles, and shortage of disposable gloves are owing to cost inflation from time to time and sometimes absent from the market’’. The observational finding shows that colour coded waste bins are available at 23 (9.6%) of the rooms. Majority of the sharp container used in the health facility are reusable in the contrary to the health care waste management standards and most of them are plastic buckets and easily cleanable. All of the health facility infectious waste are collected transported and deposed daily. Regarding the preventive vaccination nearly half of the the fahealth facility workers wer vaccinated for Hep B virus. Conclusion- Hand washing facilities, personal protective equipment’s and preventive vaccinations are not easily available for health workers. Solid waste segregation practices are poor and these practices showed that SWMP is below the acceptable level.

Keywords: health care waste, waste management, disposal, private health facilities

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Hailu Kebede Bekele

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Construction delays are suitable where project events occur at a certain time expected due to causes related to the client, consultant, and contractor. Delay is the major cause of the cost overrun that leads to the poor efficiency of the project. The cost difference between completion and the originally estimated is known as cost overrun. The common ways of cost overruns are not simple issues that can be neglected, but more attention should be given to prevent the organization from being devastated to be failed, and financial expenses to be extended. The reasons that may raised in different studies show that the problem may arise in construction projects due to errors in budgeting, lack of favorable weather conditions, inefficient machinery, and the availability of extravagance. The study is focused on the pace of mega projects that can have a significant change in the cost overrun calculation.15 mega projects are identified to study the problem of the cost overrun in the site. The contractor, consultant, and client are the principal stakeholders in the mega projects. 20 people from each sector were selected to participate in the investigation of the current mega construction project. The main objective of the study on the construction cost overrun is to prioritize the major causes of the cost overrun problem. The methodology that was employed in the construction cost overrun is the qualitative methodology that mostly rates the causes of construction project cost overrun. Interviews, open-ended and closed-ended questions group discussions, and rating qualitative methods are the best methodologies to study construction projects overrun. The result shows that design mistakes, lack of labor, payment delay, old equipment and scheduling, weather conditions, lack of skilled labor, payment delays, transportation, inflation, and order variations, market price fluctuation, and people's thoughts and philosophies, the prior cause of the cost overrun that fail the project performance. The institute shall follow the scheduled activities to bring a positive forward in the project life.

Keywords: cost overrun, delay, mega projects, design

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

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Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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Authors: Lloyd B. Ranises

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The Philippine labor force has been affected by the pandemic recently. The situation was added by the high inflation rate, which makes matter worse. Since the Philippines has a new government after the 2022 national election, the labor condition under the previous government has been passed on to the new one. To understand the labor challenges the present government faces, this study revisits the labor conditions and responses of the previous government from 2016 to 2022. Thus, this study reviews the labor force of the Philippines within the time frame. It explores the challenges in the labor market and examines government policy. This study uses secondary sources in tracing the labor conditions and government actions that addressed them. The Literatures are consolidated to see its relevance to the new government’s labor policy. This study found that the labor force had a sluggish growth earlier until 2018 and thrived on but was affected by the pandemic. By 2020, the National Capital Region’s labor force dropped, although, after which, it begins to thrive again, showing recovery. However, its composition is much more complex. Cognitive skill is high in demand that requires tertiary education. But the production of goods and services is low in the scientific workforce in addition to the mismatch between position and profession. Moreover, Philippine labor has poor female participation. In addition to these complexities, the agricultural rural areas have high underemployment, which implies surplus labor of low skill. Overseas employment, on the other, is significant to the decrease in domestic production. The major responses of the previous government, by far, have been focused on the minimum wage increase and the social services and health insurance, which are appropriate to the post-pandemic needs. Yet still, some issues are unattended. This study concludes that the previous government’s policy needs to be fleshed out substantially. It necessitates that the new administration shall consider encompassing all aspects of the Philippine labor force to sustain and strengthen the economy of the country.

Keywords: cognitive skills, minimum wage, national capital region, underemployment

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Authors: A. Al Hajeri, M. E. Minton, B. Haskins, F. H. Cummins

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The pre-hospital endotracheal intubation is fraught with difficulties; one solution offered has been video laryngoscopy (VL) which permits better visualization of the glottis than the standard method of direct laryngoscopy (DL). This method has resulted in a higher first attempt success rate and fewer failed intubations. However, VL has mainly been evaluated by experienced providers (experienced anesthetists), and as such the utility of this device for those whom infrequently intubate has not been thoroughly assessed. We sought to evaluate this equipment to determine whether in the hands of novice providers this equipment could prove an effective airway management adjunct. DL and two VL methods (C-Mac with distal screen/C-Mac with attached screen) were evaluated by simulating practice on a Laerdal airway management trainer manikin. Twenty Emergency Medical Technicians (basics) were recruited as novice practitioners. This group was used to eliminate bias, as these clinicians had no pre-hospital experience of intubation (although they did have basic airway skills). The following areas were assessed: Time taken to intubate, number of attempts required to successfully intubate, ease of use of equipment VL (attached screen) took on average longer for novice clinicians to successfully intubate and had a lower success rate and reported higher rating of difficulty compared to DL. However, VL (with distal screen) and DL were comparable on intubation times, success rate, gastric inflation rate and rating of difficulty by the user. This study highlights the routine use of VL by inexperienced clinicians would be of no added benefit over DL. Further studies are required to determine whether Emergency Medical Technicians (Paramedics) would benefit from this airway adjunct, and ascertain whether after initial mastery of VL (with a distal screen), lower intubation times and difficulty rating may be achievable.

Keywords: direct laryngoscopy, endotracheal intubation, pre-hospital, video laryngoscopy

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Authors: Gayani K. Nandasiri, Tilak Dias, William Hurley

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Venous disease of human lower limb could range from minor asymptomatic incompetence of venous valves to chronic venous ulceration. The sheer prevalence of varicose veins and its associated significant costs of treating late complications such as chronic ulcers contribute to a higher burden on health care resources. In most of western countries with developed health care systems, treatment costs associated with Venous disease accounts for a considerable portion of their total health care budget, and it has become a high-cost burden to National Health Service (NHS), UK. The established gold standard of treatment for the venous disease is the graduated compression, where the pressure at the ankle being highest and decreasing towards the knee and thigh. Currently, medical practitioners use two main methods to treat venous disease; i.e. compression bandaging and compression stockings. Both these systems have their own disadvantages which lead to the current programme of research. The aim of the present study is to revolutionize the compression therapy by using a novel active compression system to deliver a controllable and more accurate pressure profiles using a series of inflatable mini bladders. Two types of commercially available silicones were tested for the application. The mini bladders were designed with a special fabrication procedure to provide required pressure profiles, and a series of experiments were conducted to characterise the mini bladders. The inflation/deflation heights of these mini bladders were investigated experimentally and using a finite element model (FEM), and the experimental data were compared to the results obtained from FEM simulations, which showed 70-80% agreement. Finally, the mini bladders were tested for its pressure transmittance characteristics, and the results showed a 70-80% of inlet air pressure transmitted onto the treated surface.

Keywords: finite element analysis, graduated compression, inflatable bladders, venous disease

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Authors: Molla Tadesse Lakew

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This study was intended to identify the factors influencing the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing in Fogera district. The use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing and factors influencing mobile phone use were specific objectives of the study. Three kebeles from the Fogera district were selected purposively based on their vegetable production potential. A simple random sampling technique (lottery method) was used to select 153 vegetable producer farmers. Interview schedule and key informants interviews were used to collect primary data. For analyzing the data, descriptive statistics like frequency and percentage, two independent t-tests, and chi-square were used. Furthermore, econometric analysis (binary logistic model) was used to assess the factors influencing mobile phone use for vegetable market information. Contingency coefficient and variance inflation factor were used to check multicollinearity problems between the independent variables. Of 153 respondents, 82 (61.72%) were mobile phone users, while 71 (38.28 %) were mobile phone nonusers. Moreover, the main use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing includes communicating at a distance to save time and minimizing transport costs, getting vegetable marketing price information, identifying markets and buyers to sell the vegetable, deciding when to sell the vegetable, negotiating with buyers for better vegetable prices and for searching of the fast market to avoid from losing of product through perishing. The model result indicated that the level of education, size of land, income, access to credit, and age were significant variables affecting the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing. It could be recommended to encourage adult education or give training for farmers on how to operate mobile phones and create awareness for the elderly rural farmers as they are able to use the mobile phone for their vegetable marketing. Moreover, farmers should be aware that mobile phones are very important for those who own very small land to get maximum returns from their production. Lastly, providing access to credit and improving and diversifying income sources for the farmers to have mobile phones were recommended to improve the livelihood of farmers.

Keywords: mobile phone, farmers, vegetable marketing, Fogera District

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Authors: Rima A. Ajlouni

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The discovery of quasi-periodic structures in material science is revealing an exciting new class of symmetries, which has never been explored before. Due to their unique structural and visual properties, these symmetries are drawing interest from many scientific and design disciplines. Especially, in art and architecture, these symmetries can provide a rich source of geometry for exploring new patterns, forms, systems, and structures. However, the structural systems of these complicated symmetries are still posing a perplexing challenge. While much of their local order has been explored, the global governing system is still unresolved. Understanding their unique global long-range order is essential to their generation and application. The recent discovery of dodecagonal quasi-periodic patterns in historical Islamic architecture is generating a renewed interest into understanding the mathematical principles of traditional Islamic geometry. Astonishingly, many centuries before its description in the modern science, ancient artists, by using the most primitive tools (a compass and a straight edge), were able to construct patterns with quasi-periodic formations. These ancient patterns can be found all over the ancient Islamic world, many of which exhibit formations with 5, 8, 10 and 12 quasi-periodic symmetries. Based on the examination of these historical patterns and derived from the generating principles of Islamic geometry, a global multi-level structural model is presented that is able to describe the global long-range order of dodecagonal quasi-periodic formations in Islamic Architecture. Furthermore, this method is used to construct new quasi-periodic tiling systems as well as generating their deflation and inflation rules. This method can be used as a general guiding principle for constructing infinite patches of dodecagon-based quasi-periodic formations, without the need for local strategies (tiling, matching, grid, substitution, etc.) or complicated mathematics; providing an easy tool for scientists, mathematicians, teachers, designers and artists, to generate and study a wide range of dodecagonal quasi-periodic formations.

Keywords: dodecagonal, Islamic architecture, long-range order, quasi-periodi

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Authors: Ibrahim Yerima Gwalem, Jamila Ahmed Buhari

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In recent years, there has been an alarming rate of increase in the costs of building materials in Nigeria, and this ugly phenomenon threatens the contributions of the construction industry in national development. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of the rising cost of building materials in Adamawa State Nigeria. Four research questions in line with the purpose of the study were raised to guide the study. Two null hypotheses were formulated and tested at 0.05 level of significance. The study adopted a survey research design. The population of the study comprises registered contractors, registered builders, selected merchants, and consultants in Adamawa state. Data were collected using researcher designed instrument tagged effects of the rising cost of building materials questionnaire (ERCBMQ). The instrument was subjected to face and content validation by two experts, one from Modibbo Adama University of Technology Yola and the other from Federal Polytechnic Mubi. The reliability of the instrument was determined by the Cronbach Alpha method and yielded a reliability index of 0.85 high enough to ascertain the reliability. Data collected from a field survey of 2019 was analyzed using mean and percentage. The means of the prices were used in the calculations of price indices and rates of inflation on building materials. Findings revealed that factors responsible for the rising cost of building materials are the exchange rate of the Nigeria Naira with a mean rating (MR) = 4.4; cost of fuel and power supply, MR = 4.3; and changes in government policies and legislation, MR = 4.2, while fluctuations in the construction cost with MR = 2.8; reduced volume of construction output, MR = 2.52; and risk of project abandonment, MRA = 2.51, were the three effects. The study concluded that adverse effects could result in a downward effect on the contributions of the construction industries on the gross domestic product (GDP) in the nation’s economy. Among the recommendations proffered include that the government should formulate a policy that will play down the agitations on the use of imported building materials by encouraging research in the production of local building materials.

Keywords: effects, rising, cost, building, materials

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Authors: Victor O. Abegunde, Melusi Sibanda

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There is need for a great deal of attention on small-scale agriculture for livelihood and food security because of the expanding global population. Small-scale agriculture has been identified as a major driving force of agricultural and rural development. However, the high dependence of the sector on natural and climatic resources has made small-scale farmers highly vulnerable to the adverse impact of climatic change thereby necessitating the need for embracing practices or concepts that will help absorb shocks from changes in climatic condition. This study examines the strategic position of small-scale farming in South African agriculture and in ensuring food security in the country, the vulnerability of small-scale agriculture to climate change and the potential of the concept of climate-smart agriculture to tackle the challenge of climate change. The study carried out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature touching small-scale agriculture, climate change, food security and climate-smart agriculture, employing the realist review method. Findings revealed that increased productivity in the small-scale agricultural sector has a great potential of improving the food security of households in South Africa and reducing dependence on food purchase in a context of high food price inflation. Findings, however, also revealed that climate change affects small-scale subsistence farmers in terms of productivity, food security and family income, categorizing the impact on smallholder livelihoods into three major groups; biological processes, environmental and physical processes and impact on health. Analysis of the literature consistently showed that climate-smart agriculture integrates the benefits of adaptation and resilience to climate change, mitigation, and food security. As a result, farming households adopting climate-smart agriculture will be better off than their counterparts who do not. This study concludes that climate-smart agriculture could be a very good bridge linking small-scale agricultural sector and agricultural productivity and development which could bring about the much needed food security.

Keywords: climate change, climate-smart agriculture, food security, small-scale

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Authors: Swati Swati, Yuhang Chen, Robert Reuben

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Coronary stents are devices resembling the shape of a tube which are placed in coronary arteries, to keep the arteries open in the treatment of coronary arterial diseases. Coronary stents are routinely deployed to clear atheromatous plaque. The stent essentially applies an internal pressure to the artery because its structure is cylindrically symmetrical and this may introduce some abnormalities in final arterial shape. The goal of the project is to develop segmented circumferential arterial compliance measuring devices which can be deployed (eventually) in vivo. The segmentation of the device will allow the mechanical asymmetry of any stenosis to be assessed. The purpose will be to assess the quality of arterial tissue for applications in tailored stents and in the assessment of aortic aneurism. Arterial distensibility measurement is of utmost importance to diagnose cardiovascular diseases and for prediction of future cardiac events or coronary artery diseases. In order to arrive at some generic outcomes, a preliminary experimental set-up has been devised to establish the measurement principles for the device at macro-scale. The measurement methodology consists of a strain gauge system monitored by LABVIEW software in a real-time fashion. This virtual instrument employs a balloon within a gelatine model contained in a split cylinder with strain gauges fixed on it. The instrument allows automated measurement of the effect of air-pressure on gelatine and measurement of strain with respect to time and pressure during inflation. Compliance simple creep model has been applied to the results for the purpose of extracting some measures of arterial compliance. The results obtained from the experiments have been used to study the effect of air pressure on strain at varying time intervals. The results clearly demonstrate that with decrease in arterial volume and increase in arterial pressure, arterial strain increases thereby decreasing the arterial compliance. The measurement system could lead to development of portable, inexpensive and small equipment and could prove to be an efficient automated compliance measurement device.

Keywords: arterial compliance, atheromatous plaque, mechanical symmetry, strain measurement

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Authors: Asad Salahuddin

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Crime rates seem to be severely augmenting over the past several years in Pakistan which has perpetuated concerns as to what, when and how this upsurge will be eradicated. State institutions are posed to be in utmost perplexity, given the enormity of worsening law and order situation, compelling government on the flip side to expend more resources in strengthening institutions to confront crime, whereas, the economy has been confronted with massive energy crisis, mass unemployment and considerable inflation which has rendered most of the people into articulate apprehension as to how to satisfy basic necessities. A framework to investigate the variability in the rising street crimes, as affected by social and institutional outcomes, has been established using a cross-sectional study. Questionnaire, entailing 7 sections incorporating numerous patterns of behavior and history of involvement in different crimes for potential street criminals was observed as data collection instrument. In order to specifically explicate the intent of street crimes on micro level, various motivational and de-motivational factors that stimulate people to resort to street crimes were scrutinized. Intent of mobile snatching and intent of street assault as potential dependent variables were examined using numerous variables that influence the occurrence and intent of these crimes using ordered probit along with ordered logit and tobit as competing models. Model Estimates asserts that intent of mobile snatching has been significantly enhanced owing to perceived judicial inefficiency and lower ability of police reforms to operate effectively, which signifies the inefficiency of institutions that are entitled to deliver justice and maintaining law and order respectively. Whereas, intent of street assaults, as an outcome, affirms that people with lack of self-stability and severe childhood punishments were more tempted to be involved in violent acts. Hence, it is imperative for government to render better resources in form of training, equipment and improved salaries to police and judiciary in order to enhance their abilities and potential to curb inflating crime.

Keywords: deprivation, street assault, self control, police reform

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mehrabanpour, Mohammad Hosein Hosseini, Ali Shirazi, Dorsa Mehrabanpour

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Respiratory infections are the most important diseases that affect poultry. Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale is a bacterium that causes respiratory infections including alveolar inflation and pneumonia in birds. The aim of this study was to evaluated antibody titer against Ornitobacterium rhinotracheal in layer chicken sera after vaccination with an experimental ORT vaccine that produced in Razi Vaccine and Serum Research Institute. Cultured bacteria were inactivated by formalin, and controlled tests were conducted on it. The obtained antigens were formulated using Montanide oil and were homogenized using homogenizer. Eighty SPF chickens were kept until the age of 14 days under existing standards for temperature, humidity, and light. At the age of 14 days, chickens were divided into 3 groups. The first group included 50 chickens injected with prepared ORT vaccine, the second group, as control group, included 15 chickens injected with sterile PBS to get stress of infection and the third group included 15 chickens with no injection performed to them. All 3 groups were kept in separate cages at same room. Blood samples were regularly taken from the chickens every week for serum separation and evaluation of antibody titer. During the fifth week post vaccination, booster vaccine was injected into the chickens of vaccinated group. The chickens were inspected every day in terms of mortality as well as any injection site reactions. Three weeks after the booster injection, blood samples were taken from all chickens of all groups, and sera were isolated. The sera of immunized (vaccinated) SPF chickens with ORT vaccine as well as that of SPF chickens in the control groups were reviewed according to the recommendations of ELISA kit manufacturer to examine the chicken’s humeral immune response to the studied vaccine. Potency, stability and sterility tests were also performed on the above mentioned vaccine. Results obtained indicate high antibody titer in sera of chickens vaccinated with experimental ORT vaccine as compared with the control groups that emphasize the ability of experimentally prepared ORT vaccine to stimulate humoral immune response of chicken. After the second injection, antibody titer increased and remained almost stable up to 9 weeks after the injection. ORT vaccine can cause potency in chickens and can protect them against disease.

Keywords: antibody, layer chicken, Ornithobactrium rhinotracitis, vaccine

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Authors: Johanna Perdomo, Riki Lamont, Edmund Pickering, Naomi C. Paxton, Maria A. Woodruff

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Background: Tissue Engineering (TE) has combined advanced materials, such as biomaterials, to create affordable scaffolds and dynamic systems to generate stimulation of seeded cells on these scaffolds, improving and maintaining the cellular growth process in a cell culture. However, Few TE skin products have been clinically translated, and more research is required to produce highly biomimetic skin substitutes that mimic the native elasticity of skin in a controlled manner. Therefore, this work will be focused on the fabrication of a novel mechanical system to enhance the TE treatment approaches for the reparation of damaged tissue skin. Aims: To archive this, a soft robotic device will be created to emulate different deformation of skin stress. The design of this soft robot will allow the attachment of scaffolds, which will then be mechanically actuated. This will provide a novel and highly adaptable platform for dynamic cell culture. Methods: Novel, low-cost soft robot is fabricated via 3D printed moulds and silicone. A low cost, electro-mechanical device was constructed to actuate the soft robot through the controlled combination of positive and negative air pressure to control the different state of movements. Mechanical tests were conducted to assess the performance and calibration of each electronic component. Similarly, pressure-displacement test was performed on scaffolds, which were attached to the soft robot, applying various mechanical loading regimes. Lastly, digital image correlation test was performed to obtain strain distributions over the soft robot’s surface. Results: The control system can control and stabilise positive pressure changes for long hours. Similarly, pressure-displacement test demonstrated that scaffolds with 5µm of diameter and wavy geometry can displace at 100%, applying a maximum pressure of 1.5 PSI. Lastly, during the inflation state, the displacement of silicone was measured using DIC method, and this showed a parameter of 4.78 mm and strain of 0.0652. Discussion And Conclusion: The developed soft robot system provides a novel and low-cost platform for the dynamic actuation of tissue scaffolds with a target towards dynamic cell culture.

Keywords: soft robot, tissue engineering, mechanical stimulation, dynamic cell culture, bioreactor

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Authors: Estibe Dagne Mekonnen

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In recent years, the prevalence of undernourishment was 30 percent for sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 16 percent for Asia and the Pacific (Ali, 2011). In Ethiopia, almost 40 percent of the total population in the country and 57 percent of Addis Ababa population lives below the international poverty line of US$ 1.25 per day (UNICEF, 2009). This study aims to analyze the determinant of household food secrity in Addis Ababa city administration. Primary data were collected from a survey of 256 households in the selected sub-city, namely Addis Ketema, Arada, and Kolfe Keranio, in the year 2022. Both Purposive and multi-stage cluster random sampling procedures were employed to select study areas and respondents. Descriptive statistics and order logistic regression model were used to test the formulated hypotheses. The result reveals that out of the total sampled households, 25% them were food secured, 13% were mildly food insecure, 26% were moderately food insecure and 36% were severely food insecure. The study indicates that household family size, house ownership, household income, household food source, household asset possession, household awareness on inflation, household access to social protection program, household access to credit and saving and household access to training and supervision on food security have a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of household food security status. However, marital status of household head, employment sector of household head, dependency ratio and household’s nonfood expenditure has a negative and significant influence on household food security status. The study finally suggests that the government in collaboration with financial institutions and NGO should work on sustaining household food security by creating awareness, providing credit, facilitate rural-urban linkage between producer and consumer and work on urban infrastructure improvement. Moreover, the governments also work closely and monitor consumer good suppliers, if possible find a way to subsidize consumable goods to more insecure households and make them to be food secured. Last but not least, keeping this country’s peace will play a crucial role to sustain food security.

Keywords: determinants, household, food security, order logit model, Addis Ababa

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Authors: Fouzia Brihmat

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Economic planning models, which are used to build microgrids and distributed energy resources, are the current norm for expressing such confidence (DER). These models often decide both short-term DER dispatch and long-term DER investments. This research investigates the most cost-effective hybrid (photovoltaic-diesel) renewable energy system (HRES) based on Total Net Present Cost (TNPC) in an Algerian Saharan area, which has a high potential for solar irradiation and has a production capacity of 1GW/h. Lead-acid batteries have been around much longer and are easier to understand, but have limited storage capacity. Lithium-ion batteries last longer, are lighter, but generally more expensive. By combining the advantages of each chemistry, we produce cost-effective high-capacity battery banks that operate solely on AC coupling. The financial implications of this research describe the corrosion process that occurs at the interface between the active material and grid material of the positive plate of a lead-acid battery. The best cost study for the HRES is completed with the assistance of the HOMER Pro MATLAB Link. Additionally, during the course of the project's 20 years, the system is simulated for each time step. In this model, which takes into consideration decline in solar efficiency, changes in battery storage levels over time, and rises in fuel prices above the rate of inflation. The trade-off is that the model is more accurate, but it took longer to compute. As a consequence, the model is more precise, but the computation takes longer. We initially utilized the Optimizer to run the model without MultiYear in order to discover the best system architecture. The optimal system for the single-year scenario is the Danvest generator, which has 760 kW, 200 kWh of the necessary quantity of lead-acid storage, and a somewhat lower COE of $0.309/kWh. Different scenarios that account for fluctuations in the gasified biomass generator's production of electricity have been simulated, and various strategies to guarantee the balance between generation and consumption have been investigated. The technological optimization of the same system has been finished and is being reviewed in a recent paper study.

Keywords: battery, corrosion, diesel, economic planning optimization, hybrid energy system, lead-acid battery, multi-year planning, microgrid, price forecast, PV, total net present cost

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Authors: Tuji Mohammed Sani

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Back ground: An open tibial fracture is an injury where the fractured bone directly communicates with the outside environment. Due to the specific anatomical features of the tibia (limited soft tissue coverage), more than quarter of its fractures are classified as open, representing the most common open long-bone injuries. Open tibial fractures frequently cause significant bone comminution, periosteal stripping, soft tissue loss, contamination and are prone to bacterial entry with biofilm formation, which increases the risk of deep bone infection. Objective: The main objective of the study was to determine Prevalence of infection and its associated factors in surgically treated open tibial fracture in Addis Ababa Burn Emergency and Trauma (AaBET) center. Method: A facility based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among patient treated for open tibial fracture at AaBET center from September 2018 to September 2021. The data was collected from patient’s chart using structured data collection form, and Data was entered and analyzed using SPSS version 26. Bivariable and multiple binary logistic regression were fitted. Multicollinearity was checked among candidate variables using variance inflation factor and tolerance, which were less than 5 and greater than 0.2, respectively. Model adequacy were tested using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fitness test (P=0.711). AOR at 95% CI was reported, and P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Result: This study found that 33.9% of the study participants had an infection. Initial IV antibiotic time (AOR=2.924, 95% CI:1.160- 7.370) and time of wound closure from injury (AOR=3.524, 95% CI: 1.798-6.908), injury to admission time (AOR=2.895, 95% CI: 1.402 – 5.977). and definitive fixation method (AOR=0.244, 95% CI: 0.113 – 0.4508) were the factors found to have a statistically significant association with the occurrence of infection. Conclusion: The rate of infection in open tibial fractures indicates that there is a need to improve the management of open tibial fracture treated at AaBET center. Time from injury to admission, time from injury to first debridement, wound closure time, and initial Intra Venous antibiotic time from the injury are an important factor that can be readily amended to improve the infection rate. Whether wound closed before seven days or not were more important factor associated with occurrences of infection.

Keywords: infection, open tibia, fracture, magnitude

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Authors: Chineduum Okpala

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Nigeria, since her independence, has been engulfed in financial crimes of different forms. From embezzlement and conversion of public funds by public servants to stealing, contract inflation, and money laundering. Money laundering in Nigeria, particularly by political exposed persons, has been an issue of concern since independence. Corruption has been endemic, and Nigeria needs to integrate pro-active measures to show to the international community that it is ready to move against this vice. This paper discusses the negative effect of corruption and its effect on prosecutorial discretion. It also takes cognisance of the policy and aims of the anti-money laundering (AML) policy as enacted in Nigeria. It also takes as valid the assumption that the effective application of the rule of law will improve the efficacy of the Nigerian regime. In this regard, the perspective is internal to the Nigerian regime and its internal policy discourse which also reflect its policy discourse at international level. This paper takes notice of the typology of money laundering (ML) offences that most affect Nigeria, which hinges on corruption and abuse of office by a specific type of person, politically exposed persons (PEP). This typology of money laundering offence appears to be the most prevalent in developing nations like Nigeria. The application of essential principles of law provides an opportunity for the internalisation of the rule of law in the anti-money laundering regime in Nigeria, which could aid the successful prosecution of politically exposed persons on money laundering offences. The rule of law and how well the Nigerian legal system manages to deal with the interface between high level politics and the criminal justice system in Nigeria cannot be understood from internal sources but must be developed as a genuine but critical account informed by perspectives external to the Nigerian regime. If the efficacy of the regime is to be assessed in view of notorious failures of the regime, an external assessment is needed. Hence the paper discusses the need to integrate the essential principles of law in the application of prosecutorial discretion in the anti-money laundering regime in Nigeria, particularly with politically exposed persons. The paper highlights jurisdiction where prosecutorial discretion is integrated into the anti-money laundering regime in accordance to the rule of law which forms a basis for comparative analysis of the success of the anti-money laundering regime in Nigeria. This paper discusses why the application of prosecutorial discretion should not be used as a tool to extricate or avail the rich and powerful in the society from justice. The paper aims to argue that the successful prosecution of politically exposed persons, will raise the confidence of the citizens and the international community in the anti-money laundering regime in Nigeria.

Keywords: money laundering, politically exposed persons, corruption, Nigeria

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Authors: Alexandru Achim, Tamás Szűcsborus, Viktor Sasi, Ferenc Nagy, Zoltán Jambrik, Attila Nemes, Albert Varga, Călin Homorodean, Olivier F. Bertrand, Zoltán Ruzsa

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Aim: Our study aimed to establish the safety and the technical success of distal radial access for balloon aortic valvuloplasty (DR-BAV). The secondary objective was to determine the effectiveness and appropriate role of DR-BAV within half year follow-up. Methods: Clinical and angiographic data from 32 consecutive patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis were evaluated in a prospective pilot single-center study. Between 2020 and 2021, the patients were treated utilizing dual distal radial access with 6-10F compatible balloons. The efficacy endpoint was divided into technical success (successful valvuloplasty balloon inflation at the aortic valve and absence of intra- or periprocedural major complications), hemodynamic success (a reduction of the mean invasive gradient >30%), and clinical success (an improvement of at least one clinical category in the NYHA classification). The safety endpoints were vascular complications (major and minor Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-2 bleeding, diminished or lost arterial pulse or the presence of any pseudo-aneurysm or arteriovenous fistula during the clinical follow-up) and major adverse events, MAEs (the composite of death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and urgent major aortic valve replacement or implantation during the hospital stay and or at one-month follow-up). Results: 32 patients (40 % male, mean age 80 ± 8,5) with severe aortic valve stenosis were included in the study and 4 patients were excluded. Technical success was achieved in all patients (100%). Hemodynamic success was achieved in 30 patients (93,75%). Invasive max and mean gradients were reduced from 73±22 mm Hg and 49±22 mm Hg to 49±19 mm Hg and 20±13 mm Hg, respectively (p = <.001). Clinical success was achieved in 29 patients (90,6%). In total, no major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular event nor vascular complications (according to VARC 2 criteria) occurred during the intervention. All-cause death at 6 months was 12%. Conclusion: According to our study, dual distal radial artery access is a safe and effective option for balloon aortic valvuloplasty in patients with severe aortic valve stenosis and can be performed in all patients with sufficient lumen diameter. Future randomized studies are warranted to investigate whether this technique is superior to other approaches.

Keywords: mean invasive gradient, distal radial access for balloon aortic valvuloplasty (DR-BAV), aortic valve stenosis, pseudo-aneurysm, arteriovenous fistula, valve academic research consortium (VARC)-2

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Authors: Muhammad Zia Ullah Baig, Atiq Uz Zama

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The motivation of the project is to facilitate the governance body, as well as the common man in his/her daily life consuming product rates, to easily monitor the expense, to control the budget with the help of single SMS (message), e-mail facility, and to manage governance body by task management system. The system will also be capable of finding irregularities being done by the concerned department in mitigating the complaints generated by the customer and also provide a solution to overcome problems. We are building a system that easily controls the price control system of any country, we will feeling proud to give this system free of cost to Indian Government also. The system is able to easily manage and control the price control department of government all over the country. Price control department run in different cities under City District Government, so the system easily run in different cities with different SMS Code and decentralize Database ensure the non-functional requirement of system (scalability, reliability, availability, security, safety). The customer request for the government official price list with respect to his/her city SMS code (price list of all city available on website or application), the server will forward the price list through a SMS, if the product is not available according to the price list the customer generate a complaint through an SMS or using website/smartphone application, complaint is registered in complaint database and forward to inspection department when the complaint is entertained, the inspection department will forward a message about the complaint to customer. Inspection department physically checks the seller who does not follow the price list, but the major issue of the system is corruption, may be inspection officer will take a bribe and resolve the complaint (complaint is fake) in that case the customer will not use the system. The major issue of the system is to distinguish the fake and real complain and fight for corruption in the department. To counter the corruption, our strategy is to rank the complain if the same type of complaint is generated the complaint is in high rank and the higher authority will also notify about that complain, now the higher authority of department have reviewed the complaint and its history, the officer who resolve that complaint in past and the action against the complaint, these data will help in decision-making process, if the complaint was resolved because the officer takes bribe, the higher authority will take action against that officer. When the price of any good is decided the market/former representative is also there, with the mutual understanding of both party the price is decided, the system facilitate the decision-making process. The system shows the price history of any goods, inflation rate, available supply, demand, and the gap between supply and demand, these data will help to allot for the decision-making process.

Keywords: price control, goods, government, inspection, department, customer, employees

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Authors: Ismatilla Mardanov

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There are three types of countries, the first of which is willing to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in enormous amounts and do whatever it takes to make this happen. Therefore, FDI pours into such countries. In the second cluster of countries, even if the country is suffering tremendously from the shortage of investments, the governments are hesitant to attract investments because they are at the hands of local oligarchs/cartels. Therefore, FDI inflows are moderate to low in such countries. The third type is countries whose companies prefer investing in the most efficient locations globally and are hesitant to invest in the homeland. Sorting countries into such clusters, the present study examines the essential institutions and economic factors that make these countries different. Past literature has discussed various determinants of FDI in all kinds of countries. However, it did not classify countries based on government motivation, institutional setup, and economic factors. A specific approach to each target country is vital for corporate foreign direct investment risk analysis and decisions. The research questions are 1. What specific institutional and economic factors paint the pictures of the three clusters; 2. What specific institutional and economic factors are determinants of FDI; 3. Which of the determinants are endogenous and exogenous variables? 4. How can institutions and economic and political variables impact corporate investment decisions Hypothesis 1: In the first type, country institutions and economic factors will be favorable for FDI. Hypothesis 2: In the second type, even if country economic factors favor FDI, institutions will not. Hypothesis 3: In the third type, even if country institutions favorFDI, economic factors will not favor domestic investments. Therefore, FDI outflows occur in large amounts. Methods: Data come from open sources of the World Bank, the Fraser Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and other reliable sources. The dependent variable is FDI inflows. The independent variables are institutions (economic and political freedom indices) and economic factors (natural, material, and labor resources, government consumption, infrastructure, minimum wage, education, unemployment, tax rates, consumer price index, inflation, and others), the endogeneity or exogeneity of which are tested in the instrumental variable estimation. Political rights and civil liberties are used as instrumental variables. Results indicate that in the first type, both country institutions and economic factors, specifically labor and logistics/infrastructure/energy intensity, are favorable for potential investors. In the second category of countries, the risk of loss of assets is very high due to governmentshijacked by local oligarchs/cartels/special interest groups. In the third category of countries, the local economic factors are unfavorable for domestic investment even if the institutions are well acceptable. Cluster analysis and instrumental variable estimation were used to reveal cause-effect patterns in each of the clusters.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, economy, institutions, instrumental variable estimation

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Authors: Abubakar Dikko

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The research investigates the causes of unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa, and the role of Capital Accumulation in reducing the unemployment profile of these economies as proposed by the post-Keynesian economics. This is conducted through extensive review of literature on the NAIRU models and focused on the post-Keynesian view of unemployment within the NAIRU framework. The NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model has become a dominant framework used in macroeconomic analysis of unemployment. The study views the post-Keynesian economics arguments that capital accumulation is a major determinant of unemployment. Unemployment remains the fundamental socio-economic challenge facing African economies. It has been a burden to citizens of those economies. Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa are great African nations battling with high unemployment rates. In 2013, the countries recorded high unemployment rates of 16.9%, 23.9% and 24.9% respectively. Most of the unemployed in these economies comprises of youth. Roughly about 40% working age South Africans has jobs, whereas in Nigeria and Namibia is less than that. Unemployment in Africa has wide implications on households which has led to extensive poverty and inequality, and created a rampant criminality. Recently in South Africa there has been a case of xenophobic attacks which were caused by the citizens of the country as a result of unemployment. The high unemployment rate in the country led the citizens to chase away foreigners in the country claiming that they have taken away their jobs. The study proposes that there is a strong relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa, and capital accumulation is responsible for high unemployment rates in these countries. For the economies to achieve steady state level of employment and satisfactory level of economic growth and development there is need for capital accumulation to take place. The countries in the study have been selected after a critical research and investigations. They are selected based on the following criteria; African economies with high unemployment rates above 15% and have about 40% of their workforce unemployed. This level of unemployment is the critical level of unemployment in Africa as expressed by International Labour Organization (ILO). The African countries with low level of capital accumulation. Adequate statistical measures have been employed using a time-series analysis in the study and the results revealed that capital accumulation is the main driver of unemployment performance in the chosen African countries. An increase in the accumulation of capital causes unemployment to reduce significantly. The results of the research work will be useful and relevant to federal governments and ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) of Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa to resolve the issue of high and persistent unemployment rates in their economies which are great burden that slows growth and development of developing economies. Also, the result can be useful to World Bank, African Development Bank and International Labour Organization (ILO) in their further research and studies on how to tackle unemployment in developing and emerging economies.

Keywords: capital accumulation, unemployment, NAIRU, Post-Keynesian economics

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Authors: Soumya Dutta

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This research paper aims at investigating the impact of emotional intelligence and cognitive intelligence on radio presenter’s performance in the All India Radio, Kolkata (India’s public service broadcaster). The ancient concept of productivity is the ratio of what is produced to what is required to produce it. But, father of modern management Peter F. Drucker (1909-2005) defined productivity of knowledge work and knowledge workers in a new form. In the other hand, the concept of Emotional Intelligence (EI) originated back in 1920’s when Thorndike (1920) for the first time proposed the emotional intelligence into three dimensions, i.e., abstract intelligence, mechanical intelligence, and social intelligence. The contribution of Salovey and Mayer (1990) is substantive, as they proposed a model for emotional intelligence by defining EI as part of the social intelligence, which takes measures the ability of an individual to regulate his/her personal and other’s emotions and feeling. Cognitive intelligence illustrates the specialization of general intelligence in the domain of cognition in ways that possess experience and learning about cognitive processes such as memory. The outcomes of past research on emotional intelligence show that emotional intelligence has a positive effect on social- mental factors of human resource; positive effects of emotional intelligence on leaders and followers in terms of performance, results, work, satisfaction; emotional intelligence has a positive and significant relationship with the teachers' job performance. In this paper, we made a conceptual framework based on theories of emotional intelligence proposed by Salovey and Mayer (1989-1990) and a compensatory model of emotional intelligence, cognitive intelligence, and job performance proposed by Stephen Cote and Christopher T. H. Miners (2006). For investigating the impact of emotional intelligence and cognitive intelligence on radio presenter’s performance, sample size consists 59 radio presenters (considering gender, academic qualification, instructional mood, age group, etc.) from All India Radio, Kolkata station. Questionnaires prepared based on cognitive (henceforth called C based and represented by C1, C2,.., C5) as well as emotional intelligence (henceforth called E based and represented by E1, E2,., E20). These were sent to around 59 respondents (Presenters) for getting their responses. Performance score was collected from the report of program executive of All India Radio, Kolkata. The linear regression has been carried out using all the E-based and C-based variables as the predictor variables. The possible problem of autocorrelation has been tested by having the Durbinson-Watson (DW) Statistic. Values of this statistic, almost within the range of 1.80-2.20, indicate the absence of any significant problem of autocorrelation. The possible problem of multicollinearity has been tested by having the Variable Inflation Factor (VIF) value. Values of this statistic, around within 2, indicates the absence of any significant problem of multicollinearity. It is inferred that the performance scores can be statistically regressed linearly on the E-based and C-based scores, which can explain 74.50% of the variations in the performance.

Keywords: cognitive intelligence, emotional intelligence, performance, productivity

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Authors: Jaroslav Knapek, Kamila Vavrova, Tomas Kralik, Tereza Humesova

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The treatment and disposal of sewage sludge is one of the most important and critical problems of waste water treatment plants. Currently, 180 thousand tonnes of sludge dry matter are produced in the Czech Republic, which corresponds to approximately 17.8 kg of stabilized sludge dry matter / year per inhabitant of the Czech Republic. Due to the fact that sewage sludge contains a large amount of substances that are not beneficial for human health, the conditions for sludge management will be significantly tightened in the Czech Republic since 2023. One of the tested methods of sludge liquidation is the production of alternative fuel from sludge from sewage treatment plants and paper production. The paper presents an analysis of economic efficiency of alternative fuel production from sludge and its use for fluidized bed boiler with nominal consumption of 5 t of fuel per hour. The evaluation methodology includes the entire logistics chain from sludge extraction, through mechanical moisture reduction to about 40%, transport to the pelletizing line, moisture drying for pelleting and pelleting itself. For economic analysis of sludge pellet production, a time horizon of 10 years corresponding to the expected lifetime of the critical components of the pelletizing line is chosen. The economic analysis of pelleting projects is based on a detailed analysis of reference pelleting technologies suitable for sludge pelleting. The analysis of the economic efficiency of pellet is based on the simulation of cash flows associated with the implementation of the project over the life of the project. For the entered value of return on the invested capital, the price of the resulting product (in EUR / GJ or in EUR / t) is searched to ensure that the net present value of the project is zero over the project lifetime. The investor then realizes the return on the investment in the amount of the discount used to calculate the net present value. The calculations take place in a real business environment (taxes, tax depreciation, inflation, etc.) and the inputs work with market prices. At the same time, the opportunity cost principle is respected; waste disposal for alternative fuels includes the saved costs of waste disposal. The methodology also respects the emission allowances saved due to the displacement of coal by alternative (bio) fuel. Preliminary results of testing of pellet production from sludge show that after suitable modifications of the pelletizer it is possible to produce sufficiently high quality pellets from sludge. A mixture of sludge and paper waste has proved to be a more suitable material for pelleting. At the same time, preliminary results of the analysis of the economic efficiency of this sludge disposal method show that, despite the relatively low calorific value of the fuel produced (about 10-11 MJ / kg), this sludge disposal method is economically competitive. This work has been supported by the Czech Technology Agency within the project TN01000048 Biorefining as circulation technology.

Keywords: Alternative fuel, Economic analysis, Pelleting, Sewage sludge

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Authors: Xu Wang

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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 140