Search results for: humanitarian crisis

Authors: Drago Jakovcevic, Mihovil Andelinovic, Igor Husak

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The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, a small open economy, are determined by high euroization of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also, thorough analysis of distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return, in order to influence the GDP growth.

Keywords: global crisis, selective credit policy, small open economy, Croatia

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Authors: Yasir Ramadhan

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This study aims to investigate tax avoidance practices when a financial crisis occurs due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study also finds out how the influence of independent commissioners and external auditors on tax avoidance practices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tax avoidance practices are measured by the current ETR. The role of the independent board of commissioners is measured by the proportion of independent commissioners in the composition of the board of commissioners, while the external auditor is measured by audit quality. In this study, there were 342 observations of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2019 to 2020. This study used the difference-in-differences (DiD) method in data analysis. The results of this study indicate that companies do tax avoidance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, independent commissioners and qualified audits are not proven to be able to negate tax avoidance practices during the COVID-19 Pandemic. These results also show that a higher proportion of independent commissioners and audit quality are not sufficient for countries with low levels of auditor litigation and investor protection and weak regulatory frameworks.

Keywords: audit, commissioner, tax avoidance, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Francesca Giliberto

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Heritage and culture, in general, plays a central role in addressing the complexity and broad variety of global development challenges, ranging from environmental degradation and refugee and humanitarian crisis to extreme poverty, food insecurity, persisting inequalities, and unsustainable urbanisation, just to mention some examples. Nevertheless, the potential of harnessing heritage to address global challenges has remained largely under-represented and underestimated in the most recent international development agenda adopted by the United Nations in 2015 (2030 Agenda). Among the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and 169 associated targets established, only target 11.4 explicitly mentions heritage, stating that efforts should be strengthened “to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage in order to make our cities safe, resilient, and sustainable”. However, this global target continues to reflect a rather limited approach to heritage for development. This paper will provide a critical reflection on the contribution that using (tangible and intangible) heritage in international research can make to tackling global challenges and supporting the achievement of all the SDGs. It will present key findings and insights from the heritage strand of PRAXIS, a research project from the University of Leeds, which focuses on Arts and Humanities research across 300+ projects funded through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund. In particular, this paper will shed light on successful practices and lessons learned from 87 research projects funded through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund portfolios in 49 countries eligible for Official Development Assistance (ODA) between 2014 and 2021. Research data were collected through a desk assessment of project data available on UKRI Gateway to Research, online surveys, and qualitative interviews with research principal investigators and partners. The findings of this research provide evidence of how heritage and heritage research can foster innovative, interdisciplinary, inclusive, and transformative sustainable development and the achievement of the SDGs in ODA countries and beyond. This paper also highlights current challenges and research gaps that still need to be overcome to rethink current approaches and transform our development models to be more integrated, human-centred, and sustainable.

Keywords: global challenges, heritage, international research, sustainable development

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Authors: Hilly Moodrick-Even Khen

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This study analyzes the legal regulation of the use of force in international law in the context of three emerging Palestinian forms of struggle against Israeli occupation: the Knife Intifada, Gaza border disturbances, and the launching of incendiary kites. It discusses what legal paradigms or concepts should regulate the type and level of force used in each situation—a question that is complicated by various dilemmas—and appraises the Israel Defence Forces policies tailored in response. Methodologically, the study is based on analysis of scholarship on the conceptual legal issues as well as dicta of the courts. It evaluates the applicability of two legal paradigms regulating the use of force in military operations—(i) the conduct of hostilities and (ii) law enforcement—as well as the concept of self-defense in international law and the escalation of force procedure. While the “Knife Intifada” clearly falls under the law enforcement paradigm, the disturbances at the border and the launching of incendiary kites raise more difficult questions, as applying law enforcement, especially in the latter case, can have undesirable ramifications for safeguarding humanitarian interests. The use of force in the cases of the border disturbances and the incendiary kites should thus be regulated, mutatis mutandis, by the concept of self-defense and escalation of force procedures; and in the latter case, the hostilities paradigm can also be applied. The study provides a factual description and analysis of the background and nature of the forms of struggle in Gaza and the West Bank—in each case surveying the geo-political developments since operation Protective Edge, contextualizing how the organized and unorganized violent activities evolved, and analyzing them in terms of level of organization and intensity. It then presents the two paradigms of the use of force—law enforcement and conduct of hostilities—and the concept of self-defense. Lastly, it uses the factual findings as the basis for legally analyzing which paradigm or concept regulating the use of force applies for each form of struggle. The study concludes that in most cases, the concept of self-defense is preferable to the hostilities or the law enforcement paradigms, as it best safeguards humanitarian interests and ensures the least loss of civilian lives.

Keywords: Israeli-Palestinian conflict, self defense, terrorism, use of force

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Authors: Ana Luísa Mouro

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When the financial crisis exploded in 2008 in the United States, unleashed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and contaminated the economies of the European periphery, Germany appeared as the anchor of the stability of all European institutions and countries in difficulty. The solutions provided by the German government have triggered a deep political debate about the key position Germany has conquered at the heart of Europe - a new “German question” has been created. Some say Germany has achieved by peaceful means what was not able to get through military conquest - the domination of Europe – and many fear Germany’s economic power. This debate about the new role of Germany in Europe has received special attention in the European media and Portugal has not been the exception. The present study has been based on the survey, selection and critical analysis of news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the weekly Expresso and in the daily Público, between 2008 and 2015 (year of the 25th anniversary of Germany’s unification). The findings of this study will show the paradox of German power and its relevance for Europe’s future.

Keywords: Euro crises, German Europe, intercultural hermeneutics, Portuguese quality press

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Authors: Salma Kaouthar Letaief

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This article investigates the experience of diaspora in the writings of Algerian diasporic writers, namely: Leila Sebbar’s Silence on the Shores (2000), Keltoum Staali’ December’s Mimosa (2012). The study discusses the collective trauma of violence in Algeria and overseas. The experience of displacement of the characters to an alien territory compel their journey with issues related to nostalgia, identity crisis, alienation, racism, and in-betweeness. The focus in this research is, thus, on Algerian immigrants’ experience in the host country and their psychological conflicts. The theories Multiculturalism and Psychoanalysis are used to analyse the novels in this paper. While Multiculturalism examines how characters negotiate and navigate their identities in multicultural settings, Psychoanalysis enables the analysis of how characters in diasporic novels grapple with issues of identity, belonging, and self-discovery. Hence, interweaving multiculturalism and psychoanalysis provides an interdisciplinary framework that addresses both the socio-cultural and psychological aspects of the diasporic experience. Accordingly, this paper is an attempt to examine the diasporic experience and cultural dialectics.

Keywords: diaspora, algerian diasporic writers, trauma, algeria, displacement, identity crisis, cultural dialects

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Authors: Antonio Piga

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This study explores the correlation between Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) and Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) as tools for analysing the evolution of rhetoric in the communicative strategies adopted in a company’s Reports on social and environmental responsibility. In more specific terms, transitivity and ergativity- concepts from Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) - through the lenses of CDA, are employed as a theoretical means for the analysis of a longitudinal study in the communicative strategies employed by Saras SpA pre- and during the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. Saras is an Italian joint-stock company operating in oil refining and power generation. The qualitative and quantitative linguistic analysis carried out through the use of Sketch Engine software aims to identify and explain how rhetoric - and ideology - is constructed and presented through language use in Saras SpA Sustainability Reports. Specific focus is given to communication strategies to local and global communities and stakeholders in the years immediately before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The rationale behind the study lies in the fact that 2020 and 2021 have been among the most difficult years since the end of World War II. Lives were abruptly turned upside down by the pandemic, which had grave negative effects on people’s health and on the economy. The result has been a threefold crisis involving health, the economy and social tension, with the refining sector being one of the hardest hit, since the oil refining industry was one of the most affected industries due to the general reduction in mobility and oil consumption brought about by the virus-fighting measures. Emphasis is placed on the construction of rhetorical strategies pre- and during the pandemic crisis using the representational process of transitivity and ergativity (SFL), thus revealing the close relationship between the use language in terms of Social Actors and semantic roles of syntactic transformation on the one hand, and ideological assumptions on the other. The results show that linguistic decisions regarding transitivity and ergativity choices play a crucial role in how effective writing achieves its rhetorical objectives in terms of spreading and maintaining dominant and implicit ideologies and underlying persuasive actions, and that some ideological motivation is perpetuated – if not actually overtly or subtly strengthened - in social-environmental Reports issued in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis.

Keywords: systemic functional linguistics, sustainability, critical discourse analysis, transitivity, ergativity

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Authors: Logan Carmichael

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As the world’s governments seek to increasingly digitize their service provisions, there exists a subsequent and fully valid concern about the security underpinning these digital governance provisions. Estonia, a small and innovative Baltic nation, has been refining both its digital governance structure and cybersecurity mechanisms for over three decades and has been praised as global ‘best practice’ in both fields. However, the security of the Estonian digital governance system has been ever-evolving and significantly shaped by cybersecurity crises. This paper examines said crises – 2007 cyberattacks on Estonian government, banks, and news media; the 2017 e-ID crisis; the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine – and how governance decision-making following these crises has shaped the cybersecurity of the digital governance structure in Estonia. This paper employs a blended constructivist and historical institutionalist theoretical approach as a useful means to view governance and decision-making in the wake of cybersecurity incidents affecting the Estonian digital governance structure. Together, these theoretical groundings frame the topics of cybersecurity and digital governance in an Estonian context through a lens of ideation and experience, as well as institutional path dependencies over time and cybersecurity crises as critical junctures to study. Furthermore, this paper takes a qualitative approach, employing discourse analysis, policy analysis, and elite interviewing of Estonian officials involved in digital governance and cybersecurity in order to glean nuanced perspectives into the processes that followed these four crises. Ultimately, the results of this paper will offer insight into how governments undertake policy-driven change following cybersecurity crises to ensure sufficient security of their digitized service provisions. This paper’s findings are informative not only in continued decision-making in the Estonian system but also in other states currently implementing a digital governance structure, for which security mechanisms are of the utmost importance.

Keywords: cybersecurity, digital governance, Estonia, crisis management, governance in crisis

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Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

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This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds

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Authors: Murad A. Bein

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This paper empirically examines the time-varying relationship and spillover effects between the international crude oil price and ten emerging equity markets, namely three oil-exporting countries (Brazil, Mexico, and Russia) and seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia). The results revealed that there are spillover effects from oil markets into almost all emerging equity markets save Slovakia. Besides, the oil supply glut had a homogenous effect on the emerging markets, both net oil-exporting, and oil-importing countries (CEE). Further, the time variance drastically increased during financial turmoil. Indeed, the time variance remained high from 2009 to 2012 in response to aggregate demand shocks (global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis) and quantitative easing measures. Interestingly, the time variance was slightly higher for the oil-exporting countries than for some of the CEE countries. Decision-makers in emerging economies should therefore seek policy coordination when dealing with financial turmoil.

Keywords: crude oil, spillover effects, emerging equity, time-varying, aggregate demand shock

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Authors: Soumi Banerjee

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In this research paper we will go deep into understanding Benedict Anderson’s definition of the nation as an imagined community and we will analyze why and how national identities were created through long and complex processes, and how there can exist strong emotional bonds between people within an imagined community, given the fact that these people have never known each other personally, but will still feel some form of imagined unity. Such identity construction on the part of an individual or within societies are always in some sense in a state of flux as imagined communities are ever changing, which provides us with the ontological foundation for reaching on this paper. This sort of identity crisis among individuals living in the Western world, who are in search for psychological comfort and security, illustrates a possible need for spatially dislocated, ontologically insecure and vulnerable individuals to have a secure identity. To create such an identity there has to be something to build upon, which could be achieved through what may be termed as ‘homesteading’. This could in short, and in my interpretation of Kinnvall and Nesbitt’s concept, be described as a search for security that involves a search for ‘home’, where home acts as a secure place, which one can build an identity around. The next half of the paper will then look into how populism and identity have played an increasingly important role in the political elections in the so-called western democracies of the world, using the U.S. as an example. Notions of ‘us and them’, the people and the elites will be looked into and analyzed through a social constructivist theoretical lens. Here we will analyze how such narratives about identity and the nation state affects people, their personality development and identity in different ways by studying the U.S. President Donald Trump’s speeches and analyze if and how he used different identity creating narratives for gaining political and popular support. The reason to choose narrative analysis as a method in this research paper is to use the narratives as a device to understand how the perceived notions of 'us and them' can initiate huge identity crisis with a community or a nation-state. This is a relevant subject as results and developments such as rising populist rightwing movements are being felt in a number of European states, with the so-called Brexit vote in the U.K. and the election of Donald Trump as president are two of the prime examples. This paper will then attempt to argue that these mechanisms are strengthened and gaining significance in situations when humans in an economic, social or ontologically vulnerable position, imagined or otherwise, in a general and broad meaning perceive themselves to be under pressure, and a sense of insecurity is rising. These insecurities and sense of being under threat have been on the rise in many of the Western states that are otherwise usually perceived to be some of the safest, democratically stable and prosperous states in the world, which makes it of interest to study what has changed, and help provide some part of the explanation as to how creating a ‘them’ in the discourse of national identity can cause massive security crisis.

Keywords: identity crisis, migration, ontological security(in), nation-states

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Authors: Timothée Bligny, Clément Codron, Antoine Estruch, Nicolas Girodet, Clément Ginet

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Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.

Keywords: synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), credit default swap (CDS), cash flow optimization, probability of default, default correlation, strategies, simulation, simplex

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Authors: Aristeidis Samitas, Evangelos Vasileiou

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The aim of this study is to examine the month and the trading month effect under changing financial trends. We choose the Greek stock market to implement our assumption because there are clear and long term periods of financial growth and recession. Daily financial data from Athens Exchange General Index for the period 2002-2012 are considered. The paper employs several linear and non-linear models, although the TGARCH asymmetry model best fits in this sample and for this reason we mainly present the TGARCH results. Empirical results show that changing economic and financial conditions influences the calendar effects. Especially, the trading month effect totally changes in each fortnight according to the financial trend. On the other hand, in Greece the January effect exists during the growth periods, although it does not exist when the financial trend changes. The findings are helpful to anybody who invest and deals with the Greek stock market. Moreover, they may pave the way for an alternative calendar anomalies research approach, so it may be useful to investors who take into account these anomalies when they draw their investment strategy.

Keywords: month effect, trading month effect, economic cycles, crisis

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Authors: Wei Zhao

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The pandemic crisis disrupted normal classroom practices so that the constraints of the traditional practice became apparent. This turns out to be new opportunities for technology-based learning and teaching. However, how the technology supports the preschool teachers go through this sudden crisis and how preschool teachers conceived of the use of technology, appropriate and design technological artifacts as a mediator of knowledge construction in order to suit young children’s literacy level are rarely explored. This study addresses these issues by looking at the influence of a web-supported teacher community on changes/shifts in preschool teachers’ epistemological beliefs and practices. This teachers’ professional development community was formulated before the pandemic time and developed virtually throughout the home-based learning caused by Covid-19. It served as a virtual and asynchronous community for those teachers to collaboratively plan for and conduct online lessons using the knowledge-building approach for the purpose of sustaining children’s learning curiosity and opening up new learning opportunities during the lock-down period. The knowledge-building approach helps to increase teachers’ collective responsibility to collaboratively work on shared educational goals in the teacher community and awareness of noticing new ideas or innovations in their classroom. Based on the data collected across five months during and after the lock-down period and the activity theory, results show a dynamic interplay between the evolution of the community culture, the growth of teacher community and teachers’ identity transformation and professional development. Technology is useful in this regard not only because it transforms the geographical distance and new gathering guidelines after the outbreak of pandemic into new ways of communal communication and collaboration. More importantly, while teachers selected, monitored and adapted the technology, it acts as a catalyst for changes in teachers’ old teaching practices and epistemological dispositions.

Keywords: activity theory, changes in epistemology and practice, knowledge building, web-based teachers’ professional development community

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Authors: Sarah Mueller-Saegebrecht, André Brendler

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Business model innovation (BMI) as an intentional change of an existing business model (BM) or the design of a new BM is essential to a firm's development in dynamic markets. The relevance of BMI is also evident in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in which start-ups, in particular, are affected by limited access to resources. However, first studies also show that they react faster to the pandemic than established firms. A strategy to successfully handle such threatening dynamic changes represents BMI. Entrepreneurship literature shows how and when firms should utilize BMI in times of crisis and which barriers one can expect during the BMI process. Nevertheless, research merging BMI barriers and crises is still underexplored. Specifically, further knowledge about antecedents and the effect of moderators on the BMI process is necessary for advancing BMI research. The addressed research gap of this study is two-folded: First, foundations to the subject on how different crises impact BM change intention exist, yet their analysis lacks the inclusion of barriers. Especially, entrepreneurship literature lacks knowledge about the individual perception of BMI barriers, which is essential to predict managerial reactions. Moreover, internal BMI barriers have been the focal point of current research, while external BMI barriers remain virtually understudied. Second, to date, BMI research is based on qualitative methodologies. Thus, a lack of quantitative work can specify and confirm these qualitative findings. By focusing on the crisis context, this study contributes to BMI literature by offering a first quantitative attempt to embed BMI barriers into a structural equation model. It measures managers' perception of BMI development and implementation barriers in the BMI process, asking the following research question: How does a manager's perception of BMI barriers influence BMI development and implementation in times of crisis? Two distinct research streams in economic literature explain how individuals react when perceiving a threat. "Prospect Theory" claims that managers demonstrate risk-seeking tendencies when facing a potential loss, and opposing "Threat-Rigidity Theory" suggests that managers demonstrate risk-averse behavior when facing a potential loss. This study quantitively tests which theory can best predict managers' BM reaction to a perceived crisis. Out of three in-depth interviews in the German chemical industry, 60 past BMIs were identified. The participating start-up managers gave insights into their start-up's strategic and operational functioning. After, each interviewee described crises that had already affected their BM. The participants explained how they conducted BMI to overcome these crises, which development and implementation barriers they faced, and how severe they perceived them, assessed on a 5-point Likert scale. In contrast to current research, results reveal that a higher perceived threat level of a crisis harms BM experimentation. Managers seem to conduct less BMI in times of crisis, whereby BMI development barriers dampen this relation. The structural equation model unveils a mediating role of BMI implementation barriers on the link between the intention to change a BM and the concrete BMI implementation. In conclusion, this study confirms the threat-rigidity theory.

Keywords: barrier perception, business model innovation, business model innovation barriers, crises, prospect theory, start-ups, structural equation model, threat-rigidity theory

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Authors: Avi Shrivastava

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In 2021, two heart-wrenching scenes, shown live on television screens across countries, painted a grim picture of refugees. One of them was of people clinging onto an airplane's wings in their desperate attempt to flee war-torn Afghanistan. They ultimately fell to their death. The other scene was the U.S. government authorities separating children from their parents or guardians to deter migrants/refugees from coming to the U.S. These events show the desperation refugees feel when they are trying to leave their homes in disaster zones. However, data paints a grave picture of the current refugee situation. It also indicates that a bleak future lies ahead for the refugees across the globe. Data and information are the two threads that intertwine to weave the shimmery fabric of modern society. Data and information are often used interchangeably, but they differ considerably. For example, information analysis reveals rationale, and logic, while data analysis, on the other hand, reveals a pattern. Moreover, patterns revealed by data can enable us to create the necessary tools to combat huge problems on our hands. Data analysis paints a clear picture so that the decision-making process becomes simple. Geopolitical and economic data can be used to predict future refugee hotspots. Accurately predicting the next refugee hotspots will allow governments and relief agencies to prepare better for future refugee crises. The refugee crisis does not have binary answers. Given the emotionally wrenching nature of the ground realities, experts often shy away from realistically stating things as they are. This hesitancy can cost lives. When decisions are based solely on data, emotions can be removed from the decision-making process. Data also presents irrefutable evidence and tells whether there is a solution or not. Moreover, it also responds to a nonbinary crisis with a binary answer. Because of all that, it becomes easier to tackle a problem. Data science and A.I. can predict future refugee crises. With the recent explosion of data due to the rise of social media platforms, data and insight into data has solved many social and political problems. Data science can also help solve many issues refugees face while staying in refugee camps or adopted countries. This paper looks into various ways data science can help solve refugee problems. A.I.-based chatbots can help refugees seek legal help to find asylum in the country they want to settle in. These chatbots can help them find a marketplace where they can find help from the people willing to help. Data science and technology can also help solve refugees' many problems, including food, shelter, employment, security, and assimilation. The refugee problem seems to be one of the most challenging for social and political reasons. Data science and machine learning can help prevent the refugee crisis and solve or alleviate some of the problems that refugees face in their journey to a better life. With the explosion of data in the last decade, data science has made it possible to solve many geopolitical and social issues.

Keywords: refugee crisis, artificial intelligence, data science, refugee camps, Afghanistan, Ukraine

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Authors: Homyr L. Garcia, Jr., Anne Margaret A. Rendon, Carla Michaela B. Taguinod

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Nothing is constant in this world but change. This is the reality wherein a lot of people fail to recognize and maybe, it is because of the fact that some see things that are happening with little value or no value at all until it’s gone. For the past years, Egypt was known for its stable government. It was able to withstand a lot of problems and crisis which challenged their country in ways which can never be imagined. In the present time, it seems like in just a snap of a finger, the said stability vanished and it was immediately replaced by a crisis which resulted to a failure in some parts of their government. In addition, this problem continued to worsen and the current situation of Egypt is just a reflection or a result of it. On the other hand, as the researchers continued to study the reasons why the government of Egypt is unstable, they concluded that there might be a possibility that they will be able to produce ways in which their country could be helped or improved. The instability of the government of Egypt is the product of combining all the problems which affects the lives of the people. Some of the reasons that the researchers found are the following: 1) unending doubts of the people regarding the ruling capacity of elected presidents, 2) removal of President Mohamed Morsi in position, 3) economic crisis, 4) a lot of protests and revolution happened, 5) resignation of the long term President Hosni Mubarak and 6) the office of the President is most likely available only to the chosen successor. Also, according to previous researches, there are two plausible scenarios for the instability of Egypt: 1) a military intervention specifically the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or SCAF, resulting from a contested succession and 2) an Islamist push for political power which highlights the claim that religion is a hindrance towards the development of their country and government. From the eight possible reasons, the researchers decided that they will be focusing on economic crisis since the instability is more clearly seen in the country’s economy which directly affects the people and the government itself. In addition, they made a hypothesis which states that stable economy is a prerequisite towards a stable government. If they will be able to show how this claim is true by using the Social Autopsy Research Design for the qualitative method and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the quantitative method, the researchers might be able to produce a proposal on how Egypt can stabilize their government and avoid such problems. Also, the hypothesis will be based from the Rational Action Theory which is a theory for understanding and modeling social and economy as well as individual behavior.

Keywords: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, rational action theory, social autopsy research design, supreme council of the armed forces (SCAF)

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Authors: Md. Alamgir Hossain, Md. Zakir Hossain, Md. Atiqur Rahman

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Tidal power can play a vital role in integrating as new source of renewable energy to the off-grid power connection in isolated areas, namely Sandwip, in Bangladesh. It can reduce the present energy crisis and improve the social, environmental and economic perspective of Bangladesh. Tidal energy is becoming popular around the world due to its own facilities. The development of any country largely depends on energy sector improvement. Lack of energy sector is because of hampering progress of any country development, and the energy sector will be stable by only depend on sustainable energy sources. Renewable energy having environmental friendly is the only sustainable solution of secure energy system. Bangladesh has a huge potential of tidal power at different locations, but effective measures on this issue have not been considered sincerely. This paper summarizes the current energy scenario, and Bangladesh can produce power approximately 53.19 MW across the country to reduce the growing energy demand utilizing tidal energy as well as it is shown that Sandwip is highly potential place to produce tidal power, which is estimated approximately 16.49 MW by investing only US $10.37 million. Besides this, cost management for tidal power plant has been also discussed.

Keywords: sustainable energy, tidal power, cost analysis, power demand, gas crisis

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Authors: William Casto

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Studies that consider the actual impact of international law upon foreign affairs crises are flawed by an unrealistic model of decision making. The common, unexamined assumption is that a nation has a unitary executive or ruler who considers a wide variety of considerations, including international law, in attempting to resolve a crisis. To the extent that negotiation theory is considered, the focus is on negotiations between or among nations. The unsettling result is a shallow focus that concentrates on each country’s public posturing about international law. The country-to-country model ignores governments’ internal negotiations that lead to their formal position in a crisis. The model for foreign policy crises needs to be supplemented to include a model of internal negotiations. Important foreign policy decisions come from groups within a government committee, advisers, etc. Within these groups, participants may have differing agendas and resort to international law to bolster their positions. To understand the influence of international law in international crises, these internal negotiations must be considered. These negotiations are crucial to creating a foreign policy agenda or recommendations. External negotiations between the two nations are significant, but the internal negotiations provide a better understanding of the actual influence of international law upon international crises. Discovering the details of specific internal negotiations is quite difficult but not necessarily impossible. The present proposal will use a specific crisis to illustrate the role of international law. In 1861 during the American Civil War, a United States navy captain stopped a British mail ship and removed two ambassadors of the rebelling southern states. The result was what is commonly called the Trent Affair. In the wake of the captain’s unauthorized and rash action, Great Britain seriously considered going to war against the United States. A detailed analysis of the Trent Affair is possible using the available and extensive internal British correspondence and memoranda to reach an understanding of the effect of international law upon decision making. The extensive trove of internal British documents is particularly valuable because in 1861, the only effective means of communication was face-to-face or through letters. Telephones did not exist, and travel by horse and carriage was tedious. The British documents tell us how individual participants viewed the process. We can approach an accurate understanding of what actually happened as the British government strove to resolve the crisis. For example, British law officers initially concluded that the American captain’s rash act was permissible under international law. Later, the law officers revised their opinion. A model of internal negotiation is particularly valuable because it strips away nations’ public posturing about disputed international law principles. In internal decision making, there is room for meaningful debate over the relevant principles. This fluid debate tells how international law is used to develop a hard, public bargaining position. The Trent Affair indicates that international law had an actual influence upon the crisis and that law was not mere window dressing for the government’s public position.

Keywords: foreign affairs crises, negotiation, international law, Trent affair

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Authors: Fateme Aysin Anka, Farzad Kiani

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Forced migration is a situation in which people are forced to leave their homes against their will due to political conflicts, wars and conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, economic crises, or other emergencies. This type of migration takes place under conditions where people cannot lead a sustainable life due to reasons such as security, shelter and meeting their basic needs. This type of migration may occur in connection with different factors that affect people's living conditions. In addition to these general and widespread reasons, water security and resources will be one that is starting now and will be encountered more and more in the future. Forced migration may occur due to insufficient or depleted water resources in the areas where people live. In this case, people's living conditions become unsustainable, and they may have to go elsewhere, as they cannot obtain their basic needs, such as drinking water, water used for agriculture and industry. To cope with these situations, it is important to minimize the causes, as international organizations and societies must provide assistance (for example, humanitarian aid, shelter, medical support and education) and protection to address (or mitigate) this problem. From the international perspective, plans such as the Green New Deal (GND) and the European Green Deal (EGD) draw attention to the need for people to live equally in a cleaner and greener world. Especially recently, with the advancement of technology, science and methods have become more efficient. In this regard, in this article, a multidisciplinary case model is presented by reinforcing the water problem with an engineering approach within the framework of the social dimension. It is worth emphasizing that this problem is largely linked to climate change and the lack of a sustainable water management perspective. As a matter of fact, the United Nations Development Agency (UNDA) draws attention to this problem in its universally accepted sustainable development goals. Therefore, an artificial intelligence-based approach has been applied to solve this problem by focusing on the water management problem. The most general but also important aspect in the management of water resources is its correct consumption. In this context, the artificial intelligence-based system undertakes tasks such as water demand forecasting and distribution management, emergency and crisis management, water pollution detection and prevention, and maintenance and repair control and forecasting.

Keywords: water resource management, forced migration, multidisciplinary studies, artificial intelligence

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Authors: A. E. Agbogu

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While scholars have predicted that identity politics (or what is euphemistically referred to as ethnic politics in Nigeria) were a dying phenomenon in other parts of the world, in Nigeria, it has remained the basis of political activity and has indeed become not only the unwritten law of all calculations in the political firmament of the country but also the ultimo ratio. We intend in the paper that follows to explore the reason for this unhealthy development. The paper seeks to offer explanations for the paradoxical reality of the upsurge of ethnic politics in Nigeria when in fact, the phenomenon is apparently on a downward spiral elsewhere in the world, particularly in countries that are at par with Nigeria in terms of national development. The paper is descriptive and qualitative and has relied on available data for its source of materials. Among other things, the paper locates identity politics as a tool in the hands of a national elite that has not transcended the limitations imposes by the shackles of the parsonian particularistic polar attributes which have tended to fixate their weltanschauung or world view on attachments that are unpardonably primordial. In the event, ethnicity becomes a veritable instrument not only for cheap sectional mobilization but also a means for seeking access to the so-called national cake. It is recommended that a way out of this socio-politico malady is the creation of a political arrangement that conduces to the gravitational tendency which will lead to the transfer of loyalties away from the extant ethno-nationalities to the centre.

Keywords: ethnicism, development, crisis, identity politics

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Authors: Gashaw Sisay Zenebe

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Northern-Ethiopian conflict that broke out on 04 November 2020 between the central government and TPLF caused destruction beyond imagination in all aspects; millions of people have been killed, including civilians, mainly women, and children. Civilians have been indiscriminately attacked simply because of their ethnic or religious identity. Warrying parties committed serious crimes of international concern opposite to International Humanitarian Law (IHL). A House of People Representatives (HPR) declared that the terrorist Tigrean Defense Force (TDF), encompassing all segments of its people, waged war against North Gondar through human flooding. On Aug 30, 2021, after midnight, TDF launched a surprise attack against Chena People who had been drunk and deep slept due to the annual festivity. Unlike the lowlands, however, ENDF conjoined the local people to fight TDF in these Highland areas. This research examines identity politics and the consequential genocidal massacre of Chena, including its human and physical destructions that occurred as a result of the armed conflict. As such, the study could benefit international entities by helping them develop a better understanding of what happened in Chena and trigger interest in engaging in ensuring the accountability and enforcement of IHL in the future. Preserving fresh evidence will also serve as a starting point on the road to achieving justice either nationally or internationally. To study the Chena case evaluated against IHL rules, a combination of qualitative and doctrinal research methodology has been employed. The study basically follows a unique sampling case study which has used primary data tools such as observation, interview, key-informant interview, FGD, and battle-field notes. To supplement, however, secondary sources, including books, journal articles, domestic laws, international conventions, reports, and media broadcasts, were used to give meaning to what happened on the ground in light of international law. The study proved that the war was taking place to separate Tigray from Ethiopia. While undertaking military operations to achieve this goal, mass killings, genocidal acts, and war crimes were committed over Chena and approximate sites in the Dabat district of North Gondar. Thus, hundreds of people lost their lives to the brutalities of mass killings, hundreds of people were subjected to a forcible disappearance, and tens of thousands of people were forced into displacement. Furthermore, harsh beatings, forced labor, slavery, torture, rape, and gang rape have been reported, and generally, people are subjected to pass cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment and punishment. Also, what is so unique is that animals were indiscriminately killed completely, making the environment unsafe for human survival because of pollution and bad smells and the consequent diseases such as Cholera, Flu, and Diarrhea. In addition to TDF, ENDF’s shelling has caused destruction to farmers’ houses & claimed lives. According to humanitarian principles, acts that can establish MACs and war crimes were perpetrated. Generally, the war in this direction has shown an absolute disrespect for international law norms.

Keywords: genocide, war crimes, Tigray Defense Force, Chena, IHL

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Authors: Keith Dominic T. Li

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The soaring prices of residential properties in Hong Kong has become a social problem that even the middle class is having dif?iculties in purchasing homes. In making policies to curb the prices, it is important to determine the factors that contribute to the property in?lation. Many researches attribute this in?lation to macroeconomic factors especially the interest rate. However, it is important to remember that Hong Kong is under a Currency Board system which makes its interest rate exogenously determined. This research aims to show the signi?icance of the money supply on Hong Kong residential property prices in post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period. Using money supply data, macroeconomic fundamentals, and demographic variables from 2000Q1 to 2013Q2, the factors contributed to residential property price in?lation are estimated to calculate the share of each explanatory variable in disparity. It is found that the Hong Kong property market is mainly driven by investment and that the in?lation on Hong Kong residential property prices can explained by the increase in the Hang Seng Index and in the money supply M2.

Keywords: real estate, Hong Kong, property market, monetary economics, monetary policy

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Authors: Daphne Alroy-Thiberge

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Trauma-impacted individuals present unique treatment challenges that include high reactivity, hyper-and hypo-arousal, poor adherence to therapy, as well as powerful transference and counter-transference experiences in therapy. This work provides an overview of the clinical tenets most often encountered in trauma-impacted individuals. Further, it provides readily applicable clinical techniques to optimize therapeutic rapport and facilitate accelerated positive mental health outcomes. Finally, integrated neuroscience and clinical evidence-based data are discussed to shed new light on crisis states in trauma-impacted individuals. This knowledge is utilized to provide effective and concrete interventions towards rapid and successful de-escalation of the impacted individual. A highly interactive, adult-learning-principles-based modality is utilized to provide an organic learning experience for participants. The information and techniques learned aim to increase clinical effectiveness, reduce staff injuries and burnout, and significantly enhance positive mental health outcomes and self-determination for the trauma-impacted individuals treated.

Keywords: clinical competencies, crisis interventions, psychotherapy techniques, trauma informed care

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Authors: Lasha Kamashidze

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COVID19 has already become one of the biggest challenges in the modern world. The virus has also had a significant impact on the world economy, which has faced a major crisis. Each crisis and challenge creates new opportunities. Changes in the world have allowed us to see business in a new light. The aim of the article is to explore new opportunities in the business that have arisen as a result of the Corona virus. Now, organizations with a service profile are working to meet the rapidly changing needs of their staff and customers. Due to the situation created by the pandemic, it became necessary to make some changes in people's daily lives. It became necessary to adapt to the new reality. The changes caused by Coronavirus require in-depth research and analysis in the world economy, as the current situation is not ruled out to be repeated in the future. Many companies have resorted to remote work methods, which require organizational changes. The form of remote work is not new to the Georgian reality. In Georgia, as well as in the rest of the world, the business sector has undergone changes. It will be beneficial for many Georgian companies to make organizational changes that will allow them to work remotely. The current situation has shown the managers of both Georgian and other companies to have "weak points" in organizing modern business. A survey was conducted (online survey), as a result of which it received important information about the problems of remote work in Georgia.

Keywords: organizational change, coronomics, remote work, management

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Authors: Iacopo Odoardi, Emanuele Felice, Dario D'Ingiullo

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We investigate the role of human capital in the Chinese inland-coastal inequality and how the consequences of the 2007-2008 crisis may induce China to refocus its development path on human capital. We compare panel data analyses for two periods for the richer/coastal and the relatively poor/inland provinces. Considering the rapid evolution of the Chinese economy and the changes forced by the international crisis, we wonder if these events can lead to rethinking local development paths, fostering greater attention on the diffusion of higher education. We expect that the consequences on human capital may, in turn, have consequences on the inland/coastal dualism. The focus on human capital is due to the fact that the growing differences between inland and coastal areas can be explained by the different local endowments. In this respect, human capital may play a major role and should be thoroughly investigated. To assess the extent to which human capital has an effect on economic growth, we consider a fixed-effects model where differences among the provinces are considered parametric shifts in the regression equation. Data refer to the 31 Chinese provinces for the periods 1998-2008 and 2009-2017. Our dependent variable is the annual variation of the provincial gross domestic product (GDP) at the prices of the previous year. Among our regressors, we include two proxies of advanced human capital and other known factors affecting economic development. We are aware of the problem of conceptual endogeneity of variables related to human capital with respect to GDP; we adopt an instrumental variable approach (two-stage least squares) to avoid inconsistent estimates. Our results suggest that the economic strengths that influenced the Chinese take-off and the dualism are confirmed in the first period. These results gain relevance in comparison with the second period. An evolution in local economic endowments is taking place: first, although human capital can have a positive effect on all provinces after the crisis, not all types of advanced education have a direct economic effect; second, the development path of the inland area is changing, with an evolution towards more productive sectors which can favor higher returns to human capital. New strengths (e.g., advanced education, transport infrastructures) could be useful to foster development paths of inland-coastal desirable convergence, especially by favoring the poorer provinces. Our findings suggest that in all provinces, human capital can be useful to promote convergence in growth paths, even if investments in tertiary education seem to have a negative role, most likely due to the inability to exploit the skills of highly educated workers. Furthermore, we observe important changes in the economic characteristics of the less developed internal provinces. These findings suggest an evolution towards more productive economic sectors, a greater ability to exploit both investments in fixed capital and the available infrastructures. All these aspects, if connected with the improvement in the returns to human capital (at least at the secondary level), lead us to assume a better reaction (i.e., resilience) of the less developed provinces to the crisis effects.

Keywords: human capital, inland-coastal inequality, Great Recession, China

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Authors: Mara Varelaki

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In response to the challenge of the environmental crisis the discipline of environmental ethics examines the relation of human beings towards the environment and the value of the non-human constituents of the surrounding world. In the face of this crisis, assumptions regarding human and nature relations ought to be traced and reexamined because they can cause difficulties in diagnosing problematic attitudes towards the environment and non-human animals. This paper presents the claims that European and the Judea-Christian cosmogonic myths place the human figure in the core of the creation of the cosmos, thus verifying a hierarchical structure where humans occupy the top, and they establish a perception of nature as a non-human other. By doing so, these narratives provide some justification to the notion of the human-nature dichotomy and the human domination over other life forms and ecosystems. These anthropocentric assumptions evolved into what Hilde Lindemann terms master narratives and their influence extents to ecocentric ethical theories which attempt, and often fail, to shed the anthropocentrism of the western ethical tradition. The goal of this paper is (1) to trace the anthropocentric assumptions embedded in western thought and (2) articulate how they maintain their grip on our contemporary understanding of the human relation to and position within the environment, thus showing the need for a method of detecting and bracketing anthropocentric assumptions in social narratives and ethical frameworks.

Keywords: cosmogonies, anthropocentrism, human/nature dichotomy, master narratives, ecocentrism

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Authors: Scott Caizley

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Widening participation amongst state schooled and British and Minority Ethnic (BME) students in UK conservatoires throughout the past years has persisted to remain at an all time low despite major efforts to increase access for those from underrepresented backgrounds. In the academic year of 2017/18, two of the UK’s leading music conservatoires recruited less state school students than Oxbridge. Whilst conservatories face further public stigmatisation and heavy financial penalties for failing to meet government benchmarks; there appears to be a more costly outcome to this crisis. This of course, is the lack of sociocultural diversity, which is perpetuated both within the conservatoire sector and the classical music industry. This research investigates the lived experiences of former state-schooled students who attended a UK music conservatoire. Given the participant’s underrepresented status, the research seeks to answer whether or not the students are fitting in or standing out within the conservatoire environment. The research will explore the findings through a Bourdieusian contextual framework with hope of generating a wealth of new practises to the field of Higher Music Education. It is through illuminating the underrepresented voices within these elite spaces, which could aid future research and policy to help tackle the diversity dilemma and give classical music the social and cultural renewal it so desperately needs.

Keywords: classical music, lived experiences, higher music education, Bourdieusian

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS), and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay their debts, and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. The evolution of the proportion of AE countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by the relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by a more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: currency area, early warning system, external imbalances, fiscal vulnerability, GDP growth, public debt

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Authors: Doreen Mekunda

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This paper is built on the premise that the current socio-political crisis in the two restive regions of Cameroon, though enveloped with destructive and devastating trends (effects) on both property and human lives, is not without its strengths and merits. It is incontestable that many cultures, to a greater extent, are going to be destroyed as people forcibly move from war-stricken habitats to non-violent places. Many cultural potentials, traditional shrines, artifacts, art, and crafts, etc., are unknowingly or knowingly disfigured, and many other ugly things will, by the end of the crisis, affect the cultures of these two regions under siege and of the receiving population. A plethora of other problems like the persecution of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) for being displaced and blamed for increased crime rates and the existence of cultural and ethnic differences that produce both inter-tribal and interpersonal conflicts and conflicts between communities will abound. However, there is the emergence of rapid literature, and other forms of cultural productions, whether written or oral, is visible, thereby precipitating a rich cultural diversity due to the coming together of a variety of cultures of both the IDPs and the receiving populations, rapid urbanization, improvement of health-related issues, the rebirth of indigenous cultural practices, the development of social and lingua-cultural competences, dependence on alternative religions, faith and spirituality. Even financial and economic dependence, though a burden to others by IDPs, has its own merits as it improves the living standards of the IDPs. To be able to obtain plausible results, cultural materialism, which is a literary theory that hinges on the empirical study of socio-cultural systems within a materialist infrastructure-super-structure framework, is employed together with the postcolonial theory. Postcolonial theory because the study deals with postcolonial experiences/tenets of migration, hybridity, ethnicity, indignity, language, double consciousness, migration, center/margin binaries, and identity, amongst others. The study reveals that the involuntary movement of persons from their habitual homes brings about movement in cultures, thus, the emergence of new cultures. The movement of people who hold fast to their cultural heritage can only influence new forms of literature, the development of new communication competences, the rise of alternative religion, faith and spirituality, the re-emergence of customary and traditional legal systems that might have been abandoned for the new judicial systems, and above all the revitalization of traditional health care systems.

Keywords: alternative religion, emergence, socio-political crisis, spirituality, lingua-cultural competences

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