Search results for: fire prediction

Authors: Ionela-Daniela Carja, Diana Serbezeanu, Tachita Vlad-Bubulac, Corneliu Hamciuc

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Nowadays, epoxy materials are extensively used in ever more areas and under ever more demanding environmental conditions due to their remarkable combination of properties, light weight and ease of processing. However, these materials greatly increase the fire risk due to their flammability and possible release of toxic by-products as a result of their chemical composition which consists mainly from carbon and hydrogen atoms. Therefore, improving the fire retardant behaviour to prevent the loss of life and property is of particular concern among government regulatory bodies, consumers and manufacturers alike. Modification of epoxy resins with organophosphorus compounds, as reactive flame retardants or additives, is the key to achieving non-flammable advanced epoxy materials. Herein, a detailed characterization of fire behaviour for a series of phosphorus-containing epoxy thermosets is reported. A carefully designed phosphorus flame retardant additive was simply blended with a bifunctional bisphenol-A based epoxy resin. Further thermal cross-linking in the presence of various aminic hardeners led to eco-friendly flame retardant epoxy resins. The type of hardener, concentration of flame retardant additive, compatibility between the components of the mixture, char formation and morphology, thermal stability, flame retardant mechanisms were investigated. It was found that even a very low content of phosphorus introduced into the epoxy matrix increased the limiting oxygen index value to about 30%. In addition, the peak of the heat release rate value decreased up to 45% as compared to the one of the neat epoxy system. The main flame retardant mechanism was the condensed-phase one as revealed by SEM and XPS measurements.

Keywords: condensed-phase mechanism, eco-friendly phosphorus flame retardant, epoxy resin, thermal stability

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Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Farideh Aramideh

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The aim of this essay is to study the light in Zoroastrianism, and Masnavi by Rumi. The use of light goes back to thousand years B.C. the light in the legacy of ancient Iranian wisdom has been used in Mithraism, Zurvanism, Zoroastrianism and Manichaean religion and spirituality has been emanated in the world through the light. Ontology and angelology and the sacredness of fire in Zoroastrianism have been interpreted according to the concept of light. The ruling atmosphere on mazdaism world is the world which is full of light and angels, and light is one of the basis of worldview in ancient Iranian mysticism, especially Zoroastrianism and Manichaean, continued widely in Islamic mysticism, and also it always provokes discussions among scholars and mystics especially Iranian mystics. Light and fire are used as the signs and symbols of God's existence, The Shining lights emanated from the sacred essence of God, knowledge, and mysticism, love, discovering the wisdom and a way to God. Rumi speaks eloquently about light in Masnavi, and by using the light; he could render his readers the fundamental mystic subjects such as the true existence of God, the verity of prophets and saints, intuition of God, spiritual states of union with God and abiding in God, which are the most complicated mystic terms.

Keywords: zoroastrianism, myticims, Masnavi, light

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Mohammed Abed, Rita Nemes, Salem Nehme

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The present study experimentally investigated the impact of incorporating unprocessed waste fly ash (UWFA) on the residual mechanical properties of self-compacting concrete (SCC) after exposure to elevated temperature. Three mixtures of SCC have been produced by replacing the cement mass by 0%, 15% and 30% of UWFA. Generally, the fire resistance of SCC has been enhanced by replacing the cement up to 15% of UWFA, especially in case of residual modulus of elasticity which considers more sensitive than other mechanical properties at elevated temperature. However, a strong linear relationship has been observed between the residual flexural strength and modulus of elasticity, where both of them affected significantly by the cracks appearance and propagation as a result of elevated temperature. Sustainable products could be produced by incorporating unprocessed waste powder materials in the production of concrete, where the waste materials, CO₂ emissions, and the energy needed for processing are reduced.

Keywords: self-compacting high-performance concrete, unprocessed waste fly ash, fire resistance, residual modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, openVSP, solver, time

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Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

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Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

Keywords: tides, prediction, support vector machines, genetic algorithm, back-propagation neural network, risk, hazards

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Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

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Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

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Authors: Ali Reza Sattarzadeh, Ronny J. Kutadinata, Pubudu N. Pathirana, Van Thanh Huynh

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Traffic congestion has become a severe worldwide problem, affecting everyday life, fuel consumption, time, and air pollution. The primary causes of these issues are inadequate transportation infrastructure, poor traffic signal management, and rising population. Traffic flow forecasting is one of the essential and effective methods in urban congestion and traffic management, which has attracted the attention of researchers. With the development of technology, undeniable progress has been achieved in existing methods. However, there is a possibility of improvement in the extraction of temporal and spatial features to determine the importance of traffic flow sequences and extraction features. In the proposed model, we implement the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning models for mining nonlinear correlations and their effectiveness in increasing the accuracy of traffic flow prediction in the real dataset. According to the experiments, the results indicate that implementing Conv-LSTM networks increases the productivity and accuracy of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction.

Keywords: deep learning algorithms, intelligent transportation systems, spatiotemporal features, traffic flow prediction

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Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS

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Authors: Ratna Siti Khodijah, Mirzam Abdurrachman

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Gold is recovered from gold ores. Within the ores, there are not only gold but also several types of precious metals. Copper, silver, and platinum group elements (ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, rhenium, osmium, and iridium) are metals commonly found in the ores. These metals combine to form an ore because they have the same properties. It is due to their position in periodic-system-of-elements are near to gold. However, the presence of mercury in every gold ore has not been mentioned, even though it is located right next to gold in the periodic-system-of-elements and they are located in the same block, d-block. Thus, it is possible that mercury is contained in the ores. Moreover, the elements of the same group with mercury—zinc and cadmium—sometimes can be found in the ores. It is suspected that mercury can not be detected because the processing of gold ores usually using fire assay method. Before the ores melting, mercury would evaporate because it has the lowest boiling point of all precious metal in the ores. Therefore, it suggested doing research on the presence of mercury in gold ores by CVAAS method. The results of this study would obtain the amount of mercury in gold ores that should be purified. So it can be produced economically if possible.

Keywords: boiling point, d-block, fire assay, precious metal

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: Yu Guan, Song Lu, Wei Yuan, Heping Zhang

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Gas fire extinguishing system is widely used due to its cleanliness and efficiency, and since its spray will be affected by many factors such as convection and obstacles in jetting region, so in order to evaluate its effectiveness, detecting concentration distribution in the jetting area is indispensable, which is commonly achieved by aspirating concentration detection technique. During the concentration measurement, the response time of detector is a very important parameter, especially for those fire-extinguishing systems with rapid gas dispersion. Long response time will not only underestimate its concentration but also prolong the change of concentration with time. Therefore it is necessary to analyze the factors influencing the response time. In the paper, an aspirating concentration detection method was introduced, which is achieved by using a small critical nozzle and a laminar flowmeter, and because of the response time is mainly related to the gas transport process from sampling site to the sensor, the effects of exhaust pipe size, gas flow rate, and gas concentration on its response time were analyzed. During the research, Bromotrifluoromethane (CBrF₃) was used. The effect of the sampling tube was investigated with different length of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 m (5mm in pipe diameter) and different pipe diameter of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 mm (3m in length). The effect of gas flow rate was analyzed by changing the throat diameter of the critical nozzle with 0.5, 0.682, 0.75, 0.8, 0.84 and 0.88 mm. The effect of gas concentration on response time was studied with the concentration range of 0-25%. The result showed that the response time increased with the increase of both the length and diameter of the sampling pipe, and the effect of length on response time was linear, but for the effect of diameter, it was exponential. It was also found that as the throat diameter of critical nozzle increased, the response time reduced a lot, in other words, gas flow rate has a great influence on response time. For the effect of gas concentration, the response time increased with the increase of the CBrF₃ concentration, and the slope of the curve was reduced.

Keywords: aspirating concentration detection, fire extinguishing, gaseous agent, response time

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Renata Martins Pacheco, João Claro

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Wildfires are becoming an increasing concern worldwide, causing substantial social, economic, and environmental disruptions. This situation is especially relevant in Mediterranean-climate regions, present in all the five continents of the world, in which fire is not only a natural component of the environment but also perhaps one of the most important evolutionary forces. The rise in wildfire occurrences and their associated impacts suggests the need for identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing the basis of scientific evidence on how managers and policymakers may act effectively to address them. Considering that the main goal of a systematic map is to collate and catalog a body of evidence to describe the state of knowledge for a specific topic, it is a suitable approach to be used for this purpose. In this context, the aim of this study is to systematically map the research trends in wildfire management practices in Mediterranean-climate regions. A total of 201 wildfire management studies were analyzed and systematically mapped in terms of their: Year of publication; Place of study; Scientific outlet; Research area (Web of Science) or Research field (Scopus); Wildfire phase; Central research topic; Main objective of the study; Research methods; and Main conclusions or contributions. The results indicate that there is an increasing number of studies being developed on the topic (most from the last 10 years), but more than half of them are conducted in few Mediterranean countries (60% of the analyzed studies were conducted in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy or France), and more than 50% are focused on pre-fire issues, such as prevention and fuel management. In contrast, only 12% of the studies focused on “Economic modeling” or “Human factors and issues,” which suggests that the triple bottom line of the sustainability argument (social, environmental, and economic) is not being fully addressed by fire management research. More than one-fourth of the studies had their objective related to testing new approaches in fire or forest management, suggesting that new knowledge is being produced on the field. Nevertheless, the results indicate that most studies (about 84%) employed quantitative research methods, and only 3% of the studies used research methods that tackled social issues or addressed expert and practitioner’s knowledge. Perhaps this lack of multidisciplinary studies is one of the factors hindering more progress from being made in terms of reducing wildfire occurrences and their impacts.

Keywords: wildfire, Mediterranean-climate regions, management, policy

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: K. H. Yang, T. C. Yeh, P. S. Lu, F. C. Yang, T. Y. Wu, W. J. Sung

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In this study, a series of full-scale hot smoke tests has been conducted to validate the performances of the smoke management system in the WWY center for arts before grand opening. Totaled 19 scenarios has been established and experimented with fire sizes ranging from 2 MW to 10 MW. The measured ASET data provided by the smoke management system experimentation were compared with the computer-simulated RSET values for egress during the design phase. The experimental result indicated that this system could successfully provide a safety margin of 200% and ensure a safe evacuation in case of fire in the WWY project, including worst-cases and fail-safe scenarios. The methodology developed and results obtained in this project can provide a useful reference for future applications, such as for the large-scale indoor sports dome and arena, stadium, shopping malls, airport terminals, and stations or tunnels for railway and subway systems.

Keywords: building hot smoke tests, performance-based smoke management system designs, full-scale experimental validation, tenable condition criteria

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Adnan Mazari, Engin Akcagun, Antonin Havelka, Funda Buyuk Mazari, Pavel Kejzlar

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This article experimentally investigates various physical properties of special fire retardant sewing threads under different sewing speeds. The aramid threads are common for sewing the fire-fighter clothing due to high strength and high melting temperature. 3 types of aramid threads with different linear densities are used for sewing at different speed of 2000 to 4000 r/min. The needle temperature is measured at different speeds of sewing and tensile properties of threads are measured before and after the sewing process respectively. The results shows that the friction and abrasion during the sewing process causes a significant loss to the tensile properties of the threads and needle temperature rises to nearly 300^oC at 4000 r/min of machine speed. The Scanning electron microscope images are taken before and after the sewing process and shows no melting spots but significant damage to the yarn. It is also found that machine speed of 2000r/min is ideal for sewing firefighter clothing for higher tensile properties and production.

Keywords: Kevlar, needle temperautre, nomex, sewing

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Authors: Klara Masnicova, Jiri Chaloupek

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Flammability plays an important role in applications such as thermal and acoustic insulation and other technical nonwoven textiles. The study was conducted in an attempt to investigate the flammability behavior of nonwoven textiles in relation to their structural and material characteristics, with emphasis given to the blending ratios of flammable and non-flammable fibers or fibers with reduced flammability. Nonwoven structures made of blends of viscose/oxidized polyacrylonitrile (VS/oxidized PAN fibers and polyethylene terephthalate/oxidized polyacrylonitrile (PET/oxidized PAN) fibers in several bulk densities are evaluated. The VS/oxidized PAN blend is model material. The flammability was studied using a cone calorimeter. Reaction to fire was observed using the small flame test method. Interestingly, the results show some of the blending ratios do not react to the heat in linear response to bulk density. This outcome can have a huge impact on future product development in fire safety and for the general understanding of flammability behavior of nonwovens made of staple fibers.

Keywords: bulk density, cone calorimetry, flammability, nonwoven textiles

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Authors: Yubo Bi, Xiao Chen, Shouxiang Lu

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A kind of gas-fueled burner, named Burning Rate Emulator, was proposed for the purpose of the emulation of condensed fuel recently. The gaseous fuel can be pure combustible fuel gas or blends of gaseous fuel or inert gas. However, this concept was recently proposed without detailed study on the combustion characteristic of fuel blends. In this study, two kinds of common gaseous fuels were selected, propane and acetylene, to provide the combustion heat as well as a large amount of smoke, which widely exists in liquid and solid fuel burning process. A set of experiments were carried out using a gas-fueled burner with a diameter of 8 cm. The total volume flow rate of propane and acetylene was kept at 3 liters per minute. The volume fraction of propane varied from 0% to 100% at interval of 10%. It is found that the flame height increases with propane volume fraction, which may be caused by the increase of heat release rate, as the energy density of propane is larger than that of acetylene. The dimensionless flame height is correlated against dimensionless heat release rate, which shows a power function relationship. The radiation fraction of the flame does not show a monotonic relationship with propane volume fraction. With the increase of propane volume fraction from 0% to 100%, the value of radiation fraction increases first and reach a maximum value around 0.46 at a propane volume fraction of 10%, and then decreases continuously to a value of 0.25 at the propane volume fraction of 100%. The flame radiation is related to the soot in the flame. The trend of the radiation fraction reflects that there may be a synergistic effect of soot formation between propane and acetylene which can be guessed from the significantly high radiation fraction at a propane volume fraction of 10%. This work provides data for combustion of gaseous fuel blends pool fire and also give reference on the design of Burning Rate Emulator.

Keywords: Burning Rate Emulator, fuel blends pool fire, flame height, radiation fraction

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Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

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Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

Abstract:

We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

Abstract:

The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width

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Authors: Cheng-yu Hsieh, Bo Zhang, Ahmed Hambaba

Abstract:

Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for both expert analysts and investors, driven by its complexity and the noisy, volatile conditions it operates under. This research examines the efficacy of combining the Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) with wavelet transforms, specifically focusing on Haar and Daubechies wavelets, in forecasting the adjusted closing price of the S&P 500 index for the following day. By comparing the performance of the augmented PatchTST models with traditional predictive models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, this study highlights significant enhancements in prediction accuracy. The integration of the Daubechies wavelet with PatchTST notably excels, surpassing other configurations and conventional models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The success of the PatchTST model paired with Daubechies wavelet is attributed to its superior capability in extracting detailed signal information and eliminating irrelevant noise, thus proving to be an effective approach for financial time series forecasting.

Keywords: deep learning, financial forecasting, stock market prediction, patch time series transformer, wavelet transform

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Authors: Oleg Vlasovets, Fabian Schaipp, Christian L. Mueller

Abstract:

we conduct a network analysis and predict the sex of 1000 participants based on ”connectome” - pairwise Pearson’s correlation across 436 brain parcels. We solve the non-smooth convex optimization problem, known under the name of Graphical Lasso, where the solution includes a low-rank component. With this solution and machine learning model for a sex prediction, we explain the brain parcels-sex connectivity patterns.

Keywords: network analysis, neuroscience, machine learning, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 118