Search results for: extended binomial model

Authors: Y. S. Yusoff, G. Streftaris, H. R Waters

Abstract:

Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ahmadur Rahman, Ariful Islam

Abstract:

The major assumption in accelerated life tests (ALT) is that the mathematical model relating the lifetime of a test unit and the stress are known or can be assumed. In some cases, such life–stress relationships are not known and cannot be assumed, i.e. ALT data cannot be extrapolated to use condition. So, in such cases, partially accelerated life test (PALT) is a more suitable test to be performed for which tested units are subjected to both normal and accelerated conditions. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests using progressive failure-censored hybrid data with random removals. The life data of the units under test is considered to follow exponential life distribution. The removals from the test are assumed to have binomial distributions. The point and interval maximum likelihood estimations are obtained for unknown distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. An optimum test plan is developed using the D-optimality criterion. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: binomial distribution, d-optimality, multiple censoring, optimal design, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Ishapathik Das, Sumen Sen, N. Rao Chaganty, Pooja Sengupta

Abstract:

Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models.

Keywords: copula, Gaussian copula, multivariate distributions, inflated distributios

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Vijay Kumar Singh, Pooja Kushwaha, Prabhat Ranjan, Krishna Kumar Ojha, Jitendra Kumar

Abstract:

Present day high-throughput genomic technologies, NGS/microarrays, are producing large volume of data that require improved analysis methods to make sense of the data. The correlation between genes and samples has been regularly used to gain insight into many biological phenomena including, but not limited to, co-expression/co-regulation, gene regulatory networks, clustering and pattern identification. However, presence of outliers and violation of assumptions underlying Pearson correlation is frequent and may distort the actual correlation between the genes and lead to spurious conclusions. Here, we report a method to measure the strength of association between genes. The method assumes that the expression values of a gene are Bernoulli random variables whose outcome depends on the sample being probed. The method considers the two genes as uncorrelated if the number of sample with same outcome for both the genes (Ns) is equal to certainly expected number (Es). The extent of correlation depends on how far Ns can deviate from the Es. The method does not assume normality for the parent population, fairly unaffected by the presence of outliers, can be applied to qualitative data and it uses the binomial distribution to assess the significance of association. At this stage, we would not claim about the superiority of the method over other existing correlation methods, but our method could be another way of calculating correlation in addition to existing methods. The method uses binomial distribution, which has not been used until yet, to assess the significance of association between two variables. We are evaluating the performance of our method on NGS/microarray data, which is noisy and pierce by the outliers, to see if our method can differentiate between spurious and actual correlation. While working with the method, it has not escaped our notice that the method could also be generalized to measure the association of more than two variables which has been proven difficult with the existing methods.

Keywords: binomial distribution, correlation, microarray, outliers, transcriptome

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Wang Xue, Fan Liwei

Abstract:

The trust and use of social network platforms by users are instrumental factors that contribute to the platform’s sustainable development. Studying the influential factors of the use of social network platforms is beneficial for developing and maintaining a large user base. This study constructed an extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) moderating model with perceived privacy risks to analyze the factors affecting the trust and use of social network platforms. 444 participants completed our 35 surveys, and we verified the survey results by structural equation model. Empirical results reveal the influencing factors that affect the trust and use of social network platforms, and the extended UTAUT2 model with perceived privacy risks increases the applicability of UTAUT2 in social network scenarios. Social networking platforms can increase their use rate by increasing the economics, functionality, entertainment, and privacy security of the platform.

Keywords: perceived privacy risk, social network, trust, use, UTAUT2 model

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Handie Pramana Putra, Ani Dijah Rahajoe

Abstract:

The proliferation of smart devices and advancements in mobile communication technologies have permeated various facets of life with the widespread influence of e-commerce. Detecting abnormal transactions holds paramount significance in this realm due to the potential for substantial financial losses. Moreover, the fusion of data flow and control flow assumes a critical role in the exploration of process modeling and data analysis, contributing significantly to the accuracy and security of business processes. This paper introduces an alternative approach to identify abnormal transactions through a model that integrates both data and control flows. Referred to as the Extended Data Petri net (DPNE), our model encapsulates the entire process, encompassing user login to the e-commerce platform and concluding with the payment stage, including the mobile transaction process. We scrutinize the model's structure, formulate an algorithm for detecting anomalies in pertinent data, and elucidate the rationale and efficacy of the comprehensive system model. A case study validates the responsive performance of each system component, demonstrating the system's adeptness in evaluating every activity within mobile transactions. Ultimately, the results of anomaly detection are derived through a thorough and comprehensive analysis.

Keywords: database, data analysis, DPNE, extended data flow, e-commerce

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Sonal Budhiraja, Biswabrata Pradhan

Abstract:

This work considers statistical inference based on progressive Type-I interval censored data with random removal. The scheme of progressive Type-I interval censoring with random removal can be described as follows. Suppose n identical items are placed on a test at time T0 = 0 under k pre-fixed inspection times at pre-specified times T1 < T2 < . . . < Tk, where Tk is the scheduled termination time of the experiment. At inspection time Ti, Ri of the remaining surviving units Si, are randomly removed from the experiment. The removal follows a binomial distribution with parameters Si and pi for i = 1, . . . , k, with pk = 1. In this censoring scheme, the number of failures in different inspection intervals and the number of randomly removed items at pre-specified inspection times are observed. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are established under some regularity conditions. A β-content γ-level tolerance interval (TI) is determined for two parameters Weibull lifetime model using the asymptotic properties of MLEs. The minimum sample size required to achieve the desired β-content γ-level TI is determined. The performance of the MLEs and TI is studied via simulation.

Keywords: asymptotic normality, consistency, regularity conditions, simulation study, tolerance interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Saowanit Sukparungsee

Abstract:

Generally, the traditional Shewhart p chart has been developed by for charting the binomial data. This chart has been developed using the normal approximation with condition as low defect level and the small to moderate sample size. In real applications, however, are away from these assumptions due to skewness in the exact distribution. In this paper, a modified Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chat for detecting a change in binomial data by improving square root transformations, namely ISRT p EWMA control chart. The numerical results show that ISRT p EWMA chart is superior to ISRT p chart for small to moderate shifts, otherwise, the latter is better for large shifts.

Keywords: number of defects, exponentially weighted moving average, average run length, square root transformations

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Royia Soliman, Salma ElAnsary, Akram Amin Abdellatif, Florian Holzapfel

Abstract:

Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) is an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. The model can also be extended by the failure modes of the system components. There are two famous approaches for the addition of fault behaviors to system models. The first one is to enclose the failure into the system design directly. The second approach is to develop a fault model separately from the system model, thus combining both independent models for safety analysis. This paper introduces a hybrid approach of MBSA. The approach tries to use informal abstracted models to investigate failure behaviors. The approach will combine various concepts such as directed graph traversal, event lists and Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP). The approach is implemented using an Object Oriented programming language. The components are abstracted to its failure logic and relationships of connected components. The implemented approach is tested on various flight control systems, including electrical and multi-domain examples. The various tests are analyzed, and a comparison to different approaches is represented.

Keywords: flight control systems, model based safety analysis, safety assessment analysis, system modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: R. Simutis, V. Galvanauskas, D. Levisauskas, J. Repsyte, V. Grincas

Abstract:

This paper deals with advanced state estimation algorithms for estimation of biomass concentration and specific growth rate in a typical fed-batch biotechnological process. This biotechnological process was represented by a nonlinear mass-balance based process model. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Particle Filter (PF) was used to estimate the unmeasured state variables from oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and base consumption (BC) measurements. To obtain more general results, a simplified process model was involved in EKF and PF estimation algorithms. This model doesn’t require any special growth kinetic equations and could be applied for state estimation in various bioprocesses. The focus of this investigation was concentrated on the comparison of the estimation quality of the EKF and PF estimators by applying different measurement noises. The simulation results show that Particle Filter algorithm requires significantly more computation time for state estimation but gives lower estimation errors both for biomass concentration and specific growth rate. Also the tuning procedure for Particle Filter is simpler than for EKF. Consequently, Particle Filter should be preferred in real applications, especially for monitoring of industrial bioprocesses where the simplified implementation procedures are always desirable.

Keywords: biomass concentration, extended Kalman filter, particle filter, state estimation, specific growth rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Tarek Abdel Azim Ahmed, Eman Sarhan Shaker

Abstract:

This research aims to explore how well the extended model of internet commerce adoption (eMICA) model is often used to determine the extent of internet commerce adoption in the travel agencies sector in both Egypt and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The web content analysis method was used to analyze the level of adoption of Egyptian travel agencies and Saudi travel agencies according to data immensely available on their websites. Therefore, each site was categorized according to the phases and levels proposed. In order to achieve this, 120 websites were evaluated by the two authors over a three-month period, from August to October 2020, and then categorized according to the phases and levels of (eMICA). The results show that there are deficiencies in the application of the eMICA model by both KSA and Egyptian travel agencies, generally, updating their websites, the absence of quality certification, offering secure online payment, virtual tours, and videos using Flash animation. In general, the Egyptian companies slightly outperformed the KSA ones in applying eMICA model.

Keywords: e-commerce, internet marketing, eMICA, travel agencies, websites

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Bohsiu Wu

Abstract:

Among serious crimes, child homicide is a rather rare event. However, the killing of children stirs up a special type of emotion in society that pales other criminal acts. This study examines the relevancy of three possible community-level explanations for child homicide: social deprivation, female empowerment, and social isolation. The social deprivation hypothesis posits that child homicide results from lack of resources in communities. The female empowerment hypothesis argues that a higher female status translates into a higher level of capability to prevent child homicide. Finally, the social isolation hypothesis regards child homicide as a result of lack of social connectivity. Child homicide data, aggregated by US postal ZIP codes in California from 1990 to 1999, were analyzed with a negative binomial regression. The results of the negative binomial analysis demonstrate that social deprivation is the most salient and consistent predictor among all other factors in explaining child homicide victimization at the ZIP-code level. Both social isolation and female labor force participation are weak predictors of child homicide victimization across communities. Further, results from the negative binomial regression show that it is the communities with a higher, not lower, degree of female labor force participation that are associated with a higher count of child homicide. It is possible that poor communities with a higher level of female employment have a lesser capacity to provide the necessary care and protection for the children. Policies aiming at reducing social deprivation and strengthening female empowerment possess the potential to reduce child homicide in the community.

Keywords: child homicide, deprivation, empowerment, isolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

Abstract:

Formulation of Ranolazine in the form of extended-release tablet in 500 mg dosage form was performed using Eudragit L100-55 as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with the reference Ranexa extended-release 500 mg tablet. F₂ and f₁ were calculated as 64.16 and 8.53, respectively. According to Peppas equation, the release of drug is controlled by diffusion (n=0.5). The tablets were put into accelerated stability conditions (40 °C, 75% humidity) for 3 and 6 months. The dissolution release profiles and other physical and chemical characteristics of the tablets confirmed the robustness and stability of formulation in this condition.

Keywords: drug release, extended-release tablet, ranolazine, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Weiping Liu

Abstract:

This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: David C. Ni

Abstract:

In the previous efforts, we constructed N-Body Systems by an extended Blaschke product (EBP), which represents a non-temporal and nonlinear extension of Lorentz transformation. In this construction, we rely only on two parameters, nonlinear degree, and relative momentum to characterize the systems. We further explored root computation via iteration with an algorithm extended from Jenkins-Traub method. The solution sets demonstrate a form of σ+ i [-t, t], where σ and t are the real numbers, and the [-t, t] shows various canonical distributions. In this paper, we correlate the convergent sets in the original domain with solution sets, which demonstrating large-deviation distributions in the codomain. We proceed to compare our approach with the formula or principles, such as Donsker-Varadhan and Wentzell-Freidlin theories. The deterministic model based on this construction allows us to explore applications in the areas of finance and statistical mechanics.

Keywords: nonlinear Lorentz transformation, Blaschke equation, iteration solutions, root computation, large deviation distribution, deterministic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Thilini Hathurusinghe, Uthpalie Siriwardhana, W. M. Ediri Arachchi, Ranga Thudugala, Indeewari Herath, Gayani Senanayake

Abstract:

The foramen magnum is more prone to protect than other skeletal remains during high impact and severe disruptive injuries. Therefore, it is worthwhile to explore whether these measurements can be used to determine the human gender which is vital in forensic and anthropological studies. The idea was to find out the ability to use quantitative measurements of foramen magnum as an anatomical indicator for human gender estimation and to evaluate the gender-dependent variations of foramen magnum using quantitative measurements. Randomly selected 113 subjects who underwent CT head scans at Sri Jayawardhanapura General Hospital of Sri Lanka within a period of six months, were included in the study. The sample contained 58 males (48.76 ± 14.7 years old) and 55 females (47.04 ±15.9 years old). Maximum length of the foramen magnum (LFM), maximum width of the foramen magnum (WFM), minimum distance between occipital condyles (MnD) and maximum interior distance between occipital condyles (MxID) were measured. Further, AreaT and AreaR were also calculated. The gender was estimated using binomial logistic regression. The mean values of all explanatory variables (LFM, WFM, MnD, MxID, AreaT, and AreaR) were greater among male than female. All explanatory variables except MnD (p=0.669) were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Significant bivariate correlations were demonstrated by AreaT and AreaR with the explanatory variables. The results evidenced that WFM and MxID were the best measurements in predicting gender according to binomial logistic regression. The estimated model was: log (p/1-p) =10.391-0.136×MxID-0.231×WFM, where p is the probability of being a female. The classification accuracy given by the above model was 65.5%. The quantitative measurements of foramen magnum can be used as a reliable anatomical marker for human gender estimation in the Sri Lankan context.

Keywords: foramen magnum, forensic and anthropological studies, gender estimation, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Ioannis Manikas

Abstract:

The increased consumer demand for environmentally friendly production and distribution practices and the stricter environmental regulations turned environmental aspects into important criteria in business decision-making. On the other hand, Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) has evolved dramatically during the last decades in theory and practice serving as a reference point for exchanging experiences among all agents involved in programs and projects to fostering policy and strategy development. Global pressures make it more important than ever to gain a better understanding of the contribution that agrifood businesses make to FNS and to examine ways to make them more resilient in an increasingly globalized and uncertain world. This study extends the standard three-dimensional model of sustainability to include two more dimensions: A technological dimension and a policy/political dimension. Apart from the economic, environmental and social dimensions regularly used in sustainability literature, the extended model will accurately represent the measures and policies addressing food and nutrition security.

Keywords: food and nutrition security, sustainability, food safety, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: S. Ghasemi, K. Khorasani

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of fault detection and isolation in the attitude control subsystem of spacecraft formation flying is considered. In order to design the fault detection method, an extended Kalman filter is utilized which is a nonlinear stochastic state estimation method. Three fault detection architectures, namely, centralized, decentralized, and semi-decentralized are designed based on the extended Kalman filters. Moreover, the residual generation and threshold selection techniques are proposed for these architectures.

Keywords: component, formation flight of satellites, extended Kalman filter, fault detection and isolation, actuator fault

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Wen-Tsung Ho, Ku-Kuang Chang, Hsin-Yuan Chang

Abstract:

In this study, we consider an economic lot-size batch-shipment scheduling problem (ELBSP) with extended basic period (EBP) and power-of-two (PoT) policies. In this problem, the supplier using a single facility to manufacture multiple products and equally sized batches are then delivered by the supplier to buyers over an infinite planning horizon. Further, the extended basic period (EBP) and power-of-two (PoT) policy are utilized. Relaxing the production schedule converts the ELBSP to an economic lot-size batch-shipment problem (ELBP) with EBP and PoT policies, and a nonlinear integer programming model of the ELBP is constructed. Using the replenishment cycle division and recursive tightening methods, optimal solutions are then solved separately for each product. The sum of these optimal solutions is the lower bound of the ELBSP. A proposed heuristic method with polynomial complexity is then applied to figure out the near-optimal solutions of the ELBSP. Numerical example is presented to confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

Keywords: economic lot-size scheduling problem, extended basic period, replenishment cycle division, recursive tightening, power-of-two

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Mahmoudi Noureddine, Bouregba Rachid

Abstract:

In this paper the stress intensity factors of a slant-cracked plate of AISI 304 stainless steel, have been calculated using extended finite element method and finite element method (FEM) in ABAQUS software, the results were compared with theoretical values.

Keywords: stress intensity factors, extended finite element method, stainless steel, abaqus

Procedia PDF Downloads 586

Authors: Fahmi Hassan, Noorizan Abdul Aziz, Yahaya Hassan, Hazlinda Abu Hassan

Abstract:

Sepsis incidence in critical care settings is a major problem in health care. Extended antibiotic infusion is thought to be superior to traditional dosing especially when treating critically ill patients with sepsis. We compared clinical outcomes of critically ill patients with sepsis receiving 30-minute meropenem infusion and three-hour meropenem infusion. A retrospective case-control study was conducted among septic patients treated with meropenem infusion in ICUs of three hospitals. Patients included in the study received either extended or standard meropenem infusion as per the practice of individual settings. Outcomes and clinical data were retrospectively collected from the electronic databases and patients’ files. A total of 108 patients received extended meropenem infusion while another 117 patients received standard meropenem infusion. Patients receiving the extended meropenem infusion were found to have a significantly lower shorter length of hospital and ICU stay. It was also found that among those receiving extended meropenem infusion, 54.7% (64/117) had a reduction of SAPS II score, while only 44% (48/108) of patients receiving standard meropenem infusion had reduced scores. This study will strengthen the evidence in using extended meropenem infusion as a standard practice in critical care settings. As this is the first study of its kind done in Malaysia, it proves that prolonged meropenem infusion may be beneficial to critically ill patients with sepsis. However, randomized clinical trials with large sample size should be carried out in local settings in order to minimize other confounders that may influence with the result of the study.

Keywords: antibiotics, beta lactams, critical care, extended infusion, meropenem

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

Abstract:

Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Asraful Islam

Abstract:

Extended dependency graph (EDG) is a state-of-the-art isomorphic graph to represent normal logic programs (NLPs) that can characterize the consistency of NLPs by graph analysis. To construct the vertices and arcs of an EDG, additional renaming atoms and rules besides those the given program provides are used, resulting in higher space complexity compared to the corresponding traditional dependency graph (TDG). In this article, we propose an extended labeled dependency graph (ELDG) to represent an NLP that shares an equal number of nodes and arcs with TDG and prove that it is isomorphic to the domain program. The number of nodes and arcs used in the underlying dependency graphs are formulated to compare the space complexity. Results show that ELDG uses less memory to store nodes, arcs, and cycles compared to EDG. To exhibit the desirability of ELDG, firstly, the stable models of the kernel form of NLP are characterized by the admissible coloring of ELDG; secondly, a relation of the stable models of a kernel program with the handles of the minimal, odd cycles appearing in the corresponding ELDG has been established; thirdly, to our best knowledge, for the first time an inverse transformation from a dependency graph to the representing NLP w.r.t. ELDG has been defined that enables transferring analytical results from the graph to the program straightforwardly.

Keywords: normal logic program, isomorphism of graph, extended labelled dependency graph, inverse graph transforma-tion, graph colouring

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Novee Lor C. Leyso, Maylin C. Palatino

Abstract:

Under-five malnutrition continues to persist in the Philippines, particularly in the island Province of Marinduque, with prevalence of some forms of malnutrition even worsening in recent years. Local spatial cluster detection provides a spatial perspective in understanding this phenomenon as key in analyzing patterns of geographic variation, identification of community-appropriate programs and interventions, and focused targeting on high-risk areas. Using data from a province-wide household-based census conducted in 2014–2016, this study aimed to determine and evaluate spatial clusters of under-five malnutrition, across the province and within each municipality at the individual level using household location. Malnutrition was defined as weight-for-age z-score that fall outside the 2 standard deviations from the median of the WHO reference population. The Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic in binomial model was used to locate clusters with high-risk of malnutrition, while adjusting for age and membership to government conditional cash transfer program as proxy for socio-economic status. One large significant cluster of under-five malnutrition was found southwest of the province, in which living in these areas at least doubles the risk of malnutrition. Additionally, at least one significant cluster were identified within each municipality—mostly located along the coastal areas. All these indicate apparent geographical variations across and within municipalities in the province. There were also similarities and disparities in the patterns of risk of malnutrition in each cluster across municipalities, and even within municipality, suggesting underlying causes at work that warrants further investigation. Therefore, community-appropriate programs and interventions should be identified and should be focused on high-risk areas to maximize limited government resources. Further studies are also recommended to determine factors affecting variations in childhood malnutrition considering the evidence of spatial clustering found in this study.

Keywords: Binomial model, Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic, Philippines, under-five malnutrition

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Fuziyah Ishak, Siti Norazura Ahmad

Abstract:

Volterra integro-differential equations appear in many models for real life phenomena. Since analytical solutions for this type of differential equations are hard and at times impossible to attain, engineers and scientists resort to numerical solutions that can be made as accurately as possible. Conventionally, numerical methods for ordinary differential equations are adapted to solve Volterra integro-differential equations. In this paper, numerical solution for solving Volterra integro-differential equation using extended trapezoidal method is described. Formulae for the integral and differential parts of the equation are presented. Numerical results show that the extended method is suitable for solving first order Volterra integro-differential equations.

Keywords: accuracy, extended trapezoidal method, numerical solution, Volterra integro-differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Edward J. Kansa, Pavel Holoborodko

Abstract:

Continuously differentiable radial basis functions (RBFs) are meshfree, converge faster as the dimensionality increases, and is theoretically spectrally convergent. When implemented on current single and double precision computers, such RBFs can suffer from ill-conditioning because the systems of equations needed to be solved to find the expansion coefficients are full. However, the Advanpix extended precision software package allows computer mathematics to resemble asymptotically ideal Platonic mathematics. Additionally, full systems with extended precision execute faster graphical processors units and field-programmable gate arrays because no branching is needed. Sparse equation systems are fast for iterative solvers in a very limited number of cases.

Keywords: partial differential equations, Meshfree radial basis functions, , no restrictions on spatial dimensions, Extended arithmetic precision.

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

Abstract:

The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 566

Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

Abstract:

Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Aurore Cauquis, Philippe Heinrich, Mario Ricchiuto, Audrey Gailler

Abstract:

In this talk, we look for an accurate time scheme to model the propagation of waves. Several numerical schemes have been developed to solve the extended weakly nonlinear weakly dispersive Boussinesq Equations. The temporal schemes used are two Lax-Wendroff schemes, second or third order accurate, two Runge-Kutta schemes of second and third order and a simplified third order accurate Lax-Wendroff scheme. Spatial derivatives are evaluated with fourth order accuracy. The numerical model is applied to two monodimensional benchmarks on a flat bottom. It is also applied to the simulation of the Algerian tsunami generated by a Mw=6 seism on the 18th March 2021. The tsunami propagation was highly dispersive and propagated across the Mediterranean Sea. We study here the effects of the order of temporal discretization on the accuracy of the results and on the time of computation.

Keywords: numerical analysis, tsunami propagation, water wave, boussinesq equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 208