Search results for: expected annual loss

Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21^st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG

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Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

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In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

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Authors: Ke Yang, QiHan, Bauke de Veirs

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This study addresses the need for coordinated management of natural resources in urban agglomeration. Using ecosystem services theory, The study explore the relationship between land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (B-T-H) region and the Food-Water-Energy (F-W-E) nexus from 2000 to 2030. We assess ecosystem services using the InVEST: Habitat Quality (HQ), Water Yield (WY), Carbon Sequestration (CS), Soil Retention (SDR), and Food Production (FP). The study find an annual expansion of construction land alongside a significant decline in cultivated land. Additionally, HQ, CS, and per capita FP decline annually until 2020 and are expected to persist through 2030. In contrast, WY and SDR grow annually but may decline by 2030. Spearman coefficient analysis reveals synergies between HQ and CS, SDR and CS, and SDR and HQ, with trade-offs between CS and WY and HQ and WY. Utilizing the K-means clustering analysis method, we introduce county-based spatial planning for the F-W-E system, offering valuable insights and recommendations for sustainable resource management.

Keywords: food-water-energy (F-W-E), ecosystem services, trade-offs and synergies, ecosystem service bundle, county-based

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Authors: Antonia Stanojević, Agnes Akkerman

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In contemporary society, economically active people typically spend most of their waking hours doing their job. Having that in mind, this research examines how socialization at the workplace shapes political preferences. Innovatively, it examines, in particular, the possible relationship between employees’ voice suppression by the employer and the formation of their political preferences. Since the employer is perceived as an authority figure, their behavior might induce spillovers to attitudes about political authorities and authoritarian governance. Therefore, a positive effect of suppression of voice by employers on employees' preference for authoritarian governance is expected. Furthermore, this relation is expected to be mediated by two mechanisms: system justification and power distance. Namely, it is expected that suppression of voice would create a power distance organizational climate and increase employees’ acceptance of unequal distribution of power, as well as evoke attempts of oppression rationalization through system justification. The hypotheses will be tested on the data gathered within the first wave of Work and Politics Dataset 2017 (N=6000), which allows for a wide range of demographic and psychological control variables. Although a cross-sectional analysis to be used at this point does not allow for causal inferences, the confirmation of expected relationships would encourage and justify further longitudinal research on the same panel dataset, in order to get a clearer image of the causal relationship between employers' suppression of voice and workers' political preferences.

Keywords: authoritarian values, political preferences, power distance, system justification, voice suppression

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Authors: Péter Tanos, József Kovács, Angéla Anda, Gábor Várbíró, Sándor Molnár, István Gábor Hatvani

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The River Tisza is the second largest river in Central Europe. In this study, Morlet wavelet spectrum (periodicity) analysis was used with chemical, biological and physical water quality data for the Hungarian section of the River Tisza. In the research 15, water quality parameters measured at 14 sampling sites in the River Tisza and 4 sampling sites in the main artificial changes were assessed for the time period 1993 - 2005. Results show that annual periodicity was not always to be found in the water quality parameters, at least at certain sampling sites. Periodicity was found to vary over space and time, but in general, an increase was observed in the company of higher trophic states of the river heading downstream.

Keywords: annual periodicity water quality, spatiotemporal variability of periodic behavior, Morlet wavelet spectrum analysis, River Tisza

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Authors: Nermin Gozukirmizi, Buket Cakmak, Sevgi Marakli

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Sireviruses are genera of copia LTR retrotransposons with a unique genome structure among retrotransposons. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is an economically important plant and has been studied as a model plant regarding its short annual life cycle and seven chromosome pairs. In this study, we used mature barley embryos, 10-day-old roots and 10-day-old leaves derived from the same barley plant to investigate SIRE1 retrotransposon movements by Inter-Retrotransposon Amplified Polymorphism (IRAP) technique. We found polymorphism rates between 0-64% among embryos, roots and leaves. Polymorphism rates were detected to be 0-27% among embryos, 8-60% among roots, and 11-50% among leaves. Polymorphisms were observed not only among the parts of different individuals, but also on the parts of the same plant (23-64%). The internal domains of SIRE1 (gag, env and rt) were also analyzed in the embryos, roots and leaves. Analysis of band profiles showed no polymorphism for gag, however, different band patterns were observed among samples for rt and env. The sequencing of SIRE1 gag, env and rt domains revealed 79% similarity for gag, 95% for env and 84% for rt to Ty1-copia retrotransposons. SIRE1 retrotransposon was identified in the soybean genome and has been studied on other plants (maize, rice, tomatoe etc.). This study is the first detailed investigation of SIRE1 in barley genome. The obtained findings are expected to contribute to the comprehension of SIRE1 retrotransposon and its role in barley genome.

Keywords: barley, polymorphism, retrotransposon, SIRE1 virus

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Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

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This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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Authors: Chettyparambil Lalchand Thejalakshmi, Sonal Sabu Edattukaran

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Hair loss is one of the main issues that contemporary society is dealing with. It can be attributable to a wide range of factors, listing from one's genetic composition and the anxiety we experience on a daily basis. Telogen effluvium [TE] is a condition that causes temporary hair loss after a stressor that might shock the body and cause the hair follicles to temporarily rest, leading to hair loss. Most frequently, women are the ones who bring up these difficulties. Extreme illness or trauma, an emotional or important life event, rapid weight loss and crash dieting, a severe scalp skin problem, a new medication, or ceasing hormone therapy are examples of potential causes. Men frequently do not notice hair thinning with time, but women with long hair may be easily identified when shedding, which can occasionally result in bias because women tend to be more concerned with aesthetics and beauty standards of the society, and approach frequently with the concerns .The woman, who formerly possessed a full head of hair, is worried about the hair loss from her scalp . There are several cases of hair loss reported every day, and Telogen effluvium is said to be the most prevalent one of them all without any hereditary risk factors. While the patient has loss in hair volume, baldness is not the result of this problem . The exponentially growing Dermatology and Aesthetic medical division has discovered that this problem is the most common and also the easiest to cure since it is feasible for these people to regrow their hair, unlike those who have scarring alopecia, in which the follicle itself is damaged and non-viable. Telogen effluvium comes in two different forms: acute and chronic. Acute TE occurs in all the age groups with a hair loss of less than three months, while chronic TE is more common in those between the ages of 30 and 60 with a hair loss of more than six months . Both kinds are prevalent throughout all age groups, regardless of the predominance. It takes between three and six months for the lost hair to come back, although this condition is readily reversed by eliminating stresses. After shedding their hair, patients frequently describe having noticeable fringes on their forehead. The current medical treatments for this condition include topical corticosteroids, systemic corticosteroids, minoxidil and finasteride, CNDPA (caffeine, niacinamide, panthenol, dimethicone, and an acrylate polymer) .Individual terminal hair growth was increased by 10% as a result of the innovative intervention CNDPA. Botulinum Toxin A, Scalp Micro Needling, Platelet Rich Plasma Therapy [PRP], and sessions with Multivitamin Mesotherapy Injections are some recently enhanced techniques with partially or completely reversible hair loss. Also, it has been shown that supplements like Nutrafol and Biotin are producing effective outcomes. There is virtually little evidence to support the claim that applying sulfur-rich ingredients to the scalp, such as onion juice, can help TE patients' hair regenerate.

Keywords: dermatology, telogen effluvium, hair loss, modern hair loass treatments

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Authors: William Burdick

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Manmade climate change is an existential threat that must be mitigated at the earliest opportunity. The role of government in climate change mitigation is enacting and enforcing law and policy to affect substantial reductions in greenhouse gasses, in the short and long term, without substantial increases in the cost of energy. To be optimally effective those laws and policies must be established and enforced based on peer reviewed evidence and scientific facts and result in substantial outcomes in years, not decades. Over the next fifty years, New York’s 2019 Climate Change and Community Protection Act and 2021 All Electric Building Act that mandate replacing natural gas heating systems with heat pumps will, immediately double annual heating costs and by 2075, yield less than 16.2% reduction in CO₂ emissions from heating systems in new housing units, less than a 13% reduction in total CO₂ emissions, and affect a $40B in cumulative additional heating cost, compared to natural gas fueled heating systems.

Keywords: climate change, mandate, heat pump, natural gas

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Authors: Remember Samu, Kathy Kiema, Murat Fahrioglu

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This present study is aimed at minimizing the dependence on fossil fuels thus reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and also to curb for the rising energy demands in Kenya. In this analysis, 35 locations were each considered for their techno-economic potential of installation of a 10MW grid-connected PV plant. The sites are scattered across the country but are mostly concentrated in the eastern region and were selected based on their accessibility to the national grid and availability of their meteorological parameters from NASA Solar Energy Dataset. RETScreen software 4.0 version will be employed for the analysis in this present paper. The capacity factor, simple payback, equity payback, the net present value (NPV), annual life cycle savings, energy production cost, net annual greenhouse gas emission reduction and the equivalent barrels of crude oil not consumed are outlined. Energy accounting is performed and compared to the existing grid tariff for an effective feasibility argument of this 10MW grid-connected PV power system.

Keywords: photovoltaics, project viability analysis, PV module, renewable energy

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Authors: Mohd Faridz Ahmad, Muhammad Amir Asyraf Rosli

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Aerobic dance has becoming a popular mode of exercise especially among women due to its fun nature. With a catchy music background and joyful dance steps, aerobic dancers would be able to have fun while sweating out. Depending on its level of aggressiveness, aerobic may also improve and maintain cardiorespiratory fitness other than being a great tool for weight loss. This study intends to prove that aerobic dance activity can bring the same, if not better impacts on health than other types of cardiovascular exercise such as jogging and cycling. The objective of this study was to evaluate and identify the effect of six weeks aerobic dance on cardiovascular fitness and weight loss among women. This study, which was held in Seremban Fit Challenge, used a quasi-experimental design. The subjects selected include a total of 14 women (n = 14) with age (32.4 years old ± 9.1), weight (65.93 kg ± 11.24) and height (165.36 ± 3.46) who joined the Seremban Fit Challenge Season 13. The subjects were asked to join an aerobic dance class with duration of one hour for six weeks in a row. As for the outcome, cardiovascular fitness was measured with a 1-mile run test while any changes on weight was measured using the weighing scale. The result showed that there was a significant difference between pre and post-test for cardiovascular fitness when p = 0.02 < 0.05 and weight loss when p = 0.00 < 0.05. In conclusion, a six-week long aerobic dance program would have a positive effect on cardiovascular fitness and weight. Therefore, aerobic dance may be used as an alternative tool for people who wish to lead a healthy lifestyle in a fun way.

Keywords: aerobic dance, cardiovascular fitness, weight loss, 1-mile run test

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Authors: Jan-Peter Mund, Christian Kind

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In view of the ongoing climate change and global warming, fires along railways in Germany are occurring more frequently, with sometimes massive consequences for railway operations and affected railroad infrastructure. In the absence of systematic studies within the infrastructure network of German Rail, little is known about the causes of such embankment fires. Since a further increase in these hazards is to be expected in the near future, there is a need for a sound knowledge of triggers and drivers for embankment fires as well as methodical knowledge of prediction tools. Two predictable future trends speak for the increasing relevance of the topic: through the intensification of the use of rail for passenger and freight transport (e.g..: doubling of annual passenger numbers by 2030, compared to 2019), there will be more rail traffic and also more maintenance and construction work on the railways. This research project approach uses satellite data to identify historical embankment fires along rail network infrastructure. The team links data from these fires with infrastructure and weather data and trains a machine-learning model with the aim of predicting fire hazards on sections of the track. Companies reflect on the results and use them on a pilot basis in precautionary measures.

Keywords: embankment fires, railway maintenance, machine learning, remote sensing, VIIRS data

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Authors: N. Yang, R. Linforth, I. Fisk

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The influence of food processing and choice of flavour solvent was investigated using biscuits prepared with vanillin flavour as an example. Powder vanillin either was added directly into the dough or dissolved into flavour solvent then mixed into the dough. The impact of two commonly used flavour solvents on food quality was compared: propylene glycol (PG) or triacetin (TA). The analytical approach for vanillin detection was developed by chromatography (HPLC-PDA), and the standard extraction method for vanillin was also established. The results indicated the impact of solvent choice on vanillin level during biscuit preparation. After baking, TA as a more heat resistant solvent retained more vanillin than PG, so TA is a better solvent for products that undergo a heating process. The results also illustrated the impact of mixing and baking on vanillin stability in the matrices. The average loss of vanillin was 33% during mixing and 13% during baking, which indicated that the binding of vanillin to fat or flour before baking might cause larger loss than evaporation loss during baking.

Keywords: biscuit, flavour stability, food quality, vanillin

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Authors: Mohammad Zare, Mahbubeh Sheikh

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Many of the impact of climate change will material through change in soil erosion which were rarely addressed in Iran. This paper presents an investigation of the impacts of climate change soil erosin for the Kasilian basin. LARS-WG5 was used to downscale the IPCM4 and GFCM21 predictions of the A2 scenarios for the projected periods of 1985-2030 and 2080-2099. This analysis was carried out by means of the dataset the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) of Trieste. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Results indicate that soil erosion increase or decrease, depending on which climate scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods.

Keywords: Kasilian watershed, climatic change, soil erosion, LARS-WG5 Model, RUSLE

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Authors: Deniz Yurtoğlu

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Aerosols directly affect the radiative balance of the earth by absorbing and/or scattering the sun rays reaching the atmosphere and indirectly affect the balance by acting as a nucleus in cloud formation. The composition, physical, and chemical properties of aerosols vary depending on their sources and the time spent in the atmosphere. The Eastern Mediterranean Basin has a high aerosol load that is formed from different sources; such as anthropogenic activities, desert dust outbreaks, and the spray of sea salt; and the area is subjected to atmospheric transport from other locations on the earth. This region, which includes the deserts of Africa, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean sea, is one of the most affected areas by climate change due to its location and the chemistry of the atmosphere. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal deviation of aerosol load in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin between the years 2018-2022 with the help of a new pioneer satellite of ESA (European Space Agency), Sentinel-5P. The TROPOMI (The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) traveling on this low-Earth orbiting satellite is a UV (Ultraviolet)-sensing spectrometer with a resolution of 5.5 km x 3.5 km, which can make measurements even in a cloud-covered atmosphere. By using Absorbing Aerosol Index data produced by this spectrometer and special scripts written in Python language that transforms this data into images, it was seen that the majority of the aerosol load in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin is sourced from desert dust and anthropogenic activities. After retrieving the daily data, which was separated from the NaN values, seasonal analyses match with the normal aerosol variations expected, which are high in warm seasons and lower in cold seasons. Monthly analyses showed that in four years, there was an increase in the amount of Absorbing Aerosol Index in spring and winter by 92.27% (2019-2021) and 39.81% (2019-2022), respectively. On the other hand, in the summer and autumn seasons, a decrease has been observed by 20.99% (2018-2021) and 0.94% (2018-2021), respectively. The overall variation of the mean absorbing aerosol index from TROPOMI between April 2018 to April 2022 reflects a decrease of 115.87% by annual mean from 0.228 to -0.036. However, when the data is analyzed by the annual mean values of the years which have the data from January to December, meaning from 2019 to 2021, there was an increase of 57.82% increase (0.108-0.171). This result can be interpreted as the effect of climate change on the aerosol load and also, more specifically, the effect of forest fires that happened in the summer months of 2021.

Keywords: aerosols, eastern mediterranean basin, sentinel-5p, tropomi, aerosol index, remote sensing

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Authors: M'Hamed Boulakroune, Mouloud Challal, Hassiba Louazene, Saida Fentiz

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This paper presents a new ultra wideband (UWB) microstrip bandpass filter (BPF) at microwave frequencies. The first one is based on multiple-mode resonator (MMR) and rectangular-shaped defected ground structure (DGS). This filter, which is compact size of 25.2 x 3.8 mm2, provides in the pass band an insertion loss of 0.57 dB and a return loss greater than 12 dB. The second structure is a tunable bandpass filters using planar patch resonators based on diode varactor. This filter is formed by a triple mode circular patch resonator with two pairs of slots, in which the varactors are connected. Indeed, this filter is initially centered at 2.4 GHz, the center frequency of the tunable patch filter could be tuned up to 1.8 GHz simultaneously with the bandwidth, reaching high tuning ranges. Lossless simulations were compared to those considering the substrate dielectric, conductor losses, and the equivalent electrical circuit model of the tuning element in order to assess their effects. Within these variations, simulation results showed insertion loss better than 2 dB and return loss better than 10 dB over the passband. The proposed filters presents good performances and the simulation results are in satisfactory agreement with the experimentation ones reported elsewhere.

Keywords: defected ground structure, diode varactor, microstrip bandpass filter, multiple-mode resonator

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Authors: C. Romero, R. Ortega, P. Sánchez-Camacho, P. Aguilar, V. Segur, J. Ruiz, G. Gutiérrez

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Introduction: Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in CLM. (2.8% of all deaths in women and 13,8% of deaths from tumors in womens). It is the most tumor incidence in CLM region with 26.1% from all tumours, except nonmelanoma skin (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume X, IARC). Cancer registries are a good information source to estimate cancer incidence, however the data are usually available with a lag which makes difficult their use for health managers. By contrast, mortality and survival statistics have less delay. In order to serve for resource planning and responding to this problem, a method is presented to estimate the incidence of mortality and survival data. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of breast cancer by age group in CLM in the period 1991-2013. Comparing the data obtained from the model with current incidence data. Sources: Annual number of women by single ages (National Statistics Institute). Annual number of deaths by all causes and breast cancer. (Mortality Registry CLM). The Breast cancer relative survival probability. (EUROCARE, Spanish registries data). Methods: A Weibull Parametric survival model from EUROCARE data is obtained. From the model of survival, the population and population data, Mortality and Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) regression model is obtained to estimate the incidence of cancer by age (1991-2013). Results: The resulting model is: Ix,t = Logit [const + age1*x + age2*x2 + coh1*(t – x) + coh2*(t-x)2] Where: Ix,t is the incidence at age x in the period (year) t; the value of the parameter estimates is: const (constant term in the model) = -7.03; age1 = 3.31; age2 = -1.10; coh1 = 0.61 and coh2 = -0.12. It is estimated that in 1991 were diagnosed in CLM 662 cases of breast cancer (81.51 per 100,000 women). An estimated 1,152 cases (112.41 per 100,000 women) were diagnosed in 2013, representing an increase of 40.7% in gross incidence rate (1.9% per year). The annual average increases in incidence by age were: 2.07% in women aged 25-44 years, 1.01% (45-54 years), 1.11% (55-64 years) and 1.24% (65-74 years). Cancer registries in Spain that send data to IARC declared 2003-2007 the average annual incidence rate of 98.6 cases per 100,000 women. Our model can obtain an incidence of 100.7 cases per 100,000 women. Conclusions: A sharp and steady increase in the incidence of breast cancer in the period 1991-2013 is observed. The increase was seen in all age groups considered, although it seems more pronounced in young women (25-44 years). With this method you can get a good estimation of the incidence.

Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, cancer registries, castilla-la mancha

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Authors: Divya Vohora, Md. Jamir Anwar

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Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs)-induced adverse consequences on bone are now well recognized. Despite this, there is limited data on the effect of anti-osteoporotic therapies on AEDs-induced bone loss. Both phenytoin (PHT) and sodium valproate (SVP) inhibit human aromatase enzyme and stimulate microsomal catabolism of oestrogens. Estrogen deficiency states are known to reduce the deposition of transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β3), a bone matrix protein, having anti-osteoclastic property. Thus, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of raloxifene, a selective oestrogen receptor modulator, in comparison with CVD supplementation, on PHT and SVP-induced alterations in bone in mice. Further, the effect of raloxifene on seizures and on the antiepileptic efficacy of AEDs was also investigated. Swiss strains of female mice were treated with PHT (35 mg/kg, p.o.) and SVP (300 mg/kg, p.o.) for 120 days to induce bone loss as evidenced by reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and altered bone turnover markers in lumbar bones (alkaline phosphatase, tartarate resistant acid phosphatase, hydroxyproline) and urine (calcium). The bone loss was accompanied by reduced serum estradiol levels and bone TGF-β3 content. Preventive and curative treatment with raloxifene ameliorated bony alterations and was more effective than CVD. Deprived estrogen levels (that in turn reduced lumbar TGF-β3 content) following PHT and SVP, thus, might represent one of the various mechanisms of AEDs-induced bone loss. Raloxifene preserved the bony changes without interfering with their antiepileptic efficacy, and hence raloxifene could be a potential therapeutic option in the management of PHT and SVP-induced bone disease if clinically approved.

Keywords: antiepileptic drugs, osteoporosis, raloxifene, TGF-β3

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Authors: Armand Okende, Benjamin Beaumont

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Introduction: Deforestation is a change in the structure and composition of flora and fauna, which leads to a loss of biodiversity, production of goods and services and an increase in fires. It concerns vast territories in tropical zones particularly; this is the case of the territory of Bolobo in the current province of Maï- Ndombe in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Indeed, through this study between 2001 and 2018, we believe that it was important to show and analyze quantitatively the important forests changes and analyze quantitatively. It’s the overall objective of this study because, in this area, we are witnessing significant deforestation. Methodology: Mapping and quantification are the methodological approaches that we have put forward to assess the deforestation or forest changes through satellite images or raster layers. These satellites data from Global Forest Watch are integrated into the GIS software (GRASS GIS and Quantum GIS) to represent the loss of forest cover that has occurred and the various changes recorded (e.g., forest gain) in the territory of Bolobo. Results: The results obtained show, in terms of quantifying deforestation for the periods 2001-2006, 2007-2012 and 2013-2018, the loss of forest area in hectares each year. The different change maps produced during different study periods mentioned above show that the loss of forest areas is gradually increasing. Conclusion: With this study, knowledge of forest management and protection is a challenge to ensure good management of forest resources. To do this, it is wise to carry out more studies that would optimize the monitoring of forests to guarantee the ecological and economic functions they provide in the Congo Basin, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition, the cartographic approach, coupled with the geographic information system and remote sensing proposed by Global Forest Watch using raster layers, provides interesting information to explain the loss of forest areas.

Keywords: deforestation, loss year, forest change, remote sensing, drivers of deforestation

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Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Alam Mondal, Amit Kumar

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Market penetration of high energy efficiency technologies has key impacts on energy consumption and GHG mitigation. Also, it will be useful to manage the policies formulated by public or private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets. Energy intensity in residential sector of Alberta was 148.8 GJ per household in 2012 which is 39% more than the average of Canada 106.6 GJ, it was the highest amount among the provinces on per household energy consumption. Energy intensity by appliances of Alberta was 15.3 GJ per household in 2012 which is 14% higher than average value of other provinces and territories in energy demand intensity by appliances in Canada. In this research, a framework has been developed to analyze the market penetration and market share of high energy efficiency technologies in residential sector. The overall methodology was based on development of data-intensive models’ estimation of the market penetration of the appliances in the residential sector over a time period. The developed models were a function of a number of macroeconomic and technical parameters. Developed mathematical equations were developed based on twenty-two years of historical data (1990-2011). The models were analyzed through a series of statistical tests. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were estimated based on the related variables such as capital and operating costs, discount rate, appliance’s life time, annual interest rate, incentives and maximum achievable efficiency in the period of 2015 to 2050. Results show that the market penetration of refrigerators is higher than that of other appliances. The stocks of refrigerators per household are anticipated to increase from 1.28 in 2012 to 1.314 and 1.328 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Modelling results show that the market penetration rate of stand-alone freezers will decrease between 2012 and 2050. Freezer stock per household will decline from 0.634 in 2012 to 0.556 and 0.515 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The stock of dishwashers per household is expected to increase from 0.761 in 2012 to 0.865 and 0.960 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The increase in the market penetration rate of clothes washers and clothes dryers is nearly parallel. The stock of clothes washers and clothes dryers per household is expected to rise from 0.893 and 0.979 in 2012 to 0.960 and 1.0 in 2050, respectively. This proposed presentation will include detailed discussion on the modelling methodology and results.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, energy star, market penetration, residential sector

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Authors: Monica Sharma, Harjit Pal Singh, Jasbinder Singh, Manju Bala

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In Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) system, the speech signal is degraded when passed through the network layers. The speech signal is processed through the best effort policy based IP network, which leads to the network degradations including delay, packet loss and jitter. The packet loss is the major issue of the degradation in the VoIP signal quality; even a single lost packet may generate audible distortion in the decoded speech signal. In addition to these network degradations, the quality of the speech signal is also affected by the environmental noises and coder distortions. The signal quality of the VoIP system is improved through the interleaving technique. The performance of the system is evaluated for various types of noises at different network conditions. The performance of the enhanced VoIP signal is evaluated using perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) measurement for narrow band signal.

Keywords: VoIP, interleaving, packet loss, packet size, background noise

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Authors: Nattachote Rugthaicharoencheep

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This paper presents a feeder reconfiguration problem in distribution systems. The objective is to minimize the system power loss and to improve bus voltage profile. The optimization problem is subjected to system constraints consisting of load-point voltage limits, radial configuration format, no load-point interruption, and feeder capability limits. A method based on genetic algorithm, a search algorithm based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics, is proposed to determine the optimal pattern of configuration. The developed methodology is demonstrated by a 33-bus radial distribution system with distributed generations and feeder capacitors. The study results show that the optimal on/off patterns of the switches can be identified to give the minimum power loss while respecting all the constraints.

Keywords: network reconfiguration, distributed generation capacitor placement, loss reduction, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Salman Naveed, Nitant Gandhi, Grant Billings, Zachary Jones, B. Todd Campbell, Michael Jones, Sachin Rustgi

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Cotton (Gossypium spp.) is the primary source of natural fiber in the U.S. and a major crop in the Southeastern U.S. Despite constant efforts to increase the cotton fiber yield, the yield gain has stagnated. Therefore, we undertook a novel approach to improve the cotton fiber yield by altering its growth habit from perennial to annual. In this effort, we identified genotypes with high-expression alleles of five floral induction and meristem identity genes (FT, SOC1, FUL, LFY, and AP1) from an upland cotton mini-core collection and crossed them in various combinations to develop cotton lines with annual growth habit, optimal flowering time and enhanced productivity. To facilitate the characterization of genotypes with the desired combinations of stacked alleles, we identified markers associated with the gene expression traits via genome-wide association analysis using a 63K SNP Array (Hulse-Kemp et al. 2015 G3 5:1187). Over 14,500 SNPs showed polymorphism and were used for association analysis. A total of 396 markers showed association with expression traits. Out of these 396 markers, 159 mapped to genes, 50 to untranslated regions, and 187 to random genomic regions. Biased genomic distribution of associated markers was observed where more trait-associated markers mapped to the cotton D sub-genome. Many quantitative trait loci coincided at specific genomic regions. This observation has implications as these traits could be bred together. The analysis also allowed the identification of candidate regulators of the expression patterns of these floral induction and meristem identity genes whose functions will be validated via virus-induced gene silencing.

Keywords: cotton, GWAS, QTL, expression traits

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Authors: E. Kam, G. Karahan, H. Aslıyuksek, A. Bozkurt

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This study aims to determine the natural radioactivity levels in some foodstuffs produced in Turkey. For this purpose, 48 different foods samples were collected from different land parcels throughout the country. All samples were analyzed to designate both gross alpha and gross beta radioactivities and the radionuclides’ concentrations. The gross alpha radioactivities were measured as below 1 Bq kg^-1 in most of the samples, some of them being due to the detection limit of the counting system. The gross beta radioactivity levels ranged from 1.8 Bq kg^-1 to 453 Bq kg^-1, larger levels being observed in leguminous seeds while the highest level being in haricot bean. The concentrations of natural radionuclides in the foodstuffs were investigated by the method of gamma spectroscopy. High levels of ⁴⁰K were measured in all the samples, the highest activities being again in leguminous seeds. Low concentrations of ²³⁸U and ²²⁶Ra were found in some of the samples, which are comparable to the reported results in the literature. Based on the activity concentrations obtained in this study, average annual effective dose equivalents for the radionuclides ²²⁶Ra, ²³⁸U, and ⁴⁰K were calculated as 77.416 µSv y^-1, 0.978 µSv y^-1, and 140.55 µSv y^-1, respectively.

Keywords: foods, radioactivity, gross alpha, gross beta, annual equivalent dose, Turkey

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Authors: Devinder Sharma, Sanjay Sharma, Ajay Goyal, Ashish Kapoor

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The present research paper discussed the durability properties of high strength concrete (HSC) using Foundry Slag(FD) as partial substitute for fine aggregates (FA) and Alccofine (AF) in addition to portland pozzolana (PPC) cement. Specimens of Concrete M100 grade with water/binder ratio 0.239, with Foundry Slag (FD) varying from 0 to 50% and with optimum quantity of AF(15%) were casted and tested for durability properties such as Water absorption, water permeability, resistance to sulphate attack, alkali attack and nitrate attack of HSC at the age of 7, 14, 28, 56 and 90 days. Substitution of fine aggregates (FA) with up to 45% of foundry slag(FD) content and cement with 15% substitution and addition of alccofine showed an excellent resistance against durability properties at all ages but showed a decrease in these properties with 50% of FD contents. Loss of weight in concrete samples due to sulphate attack, alkali attack and nitrate attack of HSC at the age of 365 days was compared with loss in compressive strength. Correlation between loss in weight and loss in compressive strength in all the tests was found to be excellent.

Keywords: alccofine, alkali attack, foundry slag, high strength concrete, nitrate attack, water absorption, water permeability

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Authors: H. M. Wilhelm, P. O. Fernandes, L. P. Dill, C. Steffens, K. G. Moscon, S. M. Peres, V. Bender, T. Marchesan, J. B. Ferreira Neto

Abstract:

Deterioration of insulating oil is a natural process that occurs during transformers operation. However, this process can be accelerated by some factors, such as oxygen, high temperatures, metals and, moisture, which rapidly reduce oil insulating capacity and favor transformer faults. Parts of building materials of a transformer can be degraded and yield soluble compounds and insoluble particles that shorten the equipment life. Physicochemical tests, dissolved gas analysis (including propane, propylene and, butane), volatile and furanic compounds determination, besides quantitative and morphological analyses of particulate are proposed in this study in order to correlate transformers building materials degradation with insulating oil characteristics. The present investigation involves tests of medium temperature overheating simulation by means of an electric resistance wrapped with the following materials immersed in mineral insulating oil: test I) copper, tin, lead and, paper (heated at 350-400 °C for 8 h); test II) only copper (at 250 °C for 11 h); and test III) only paper (at 250 °C for 8 h and at 350 °C for 8 h). A different experiment is the simulation of electric arc involving copper, using an electric welding machine at two distinct energy sets (low and high). Analysis results showed that dielectric loss was higher in the sample of test I, higher neutralization index and higher values of hydrogen and hydrocarbons, including propane and butane, were also observed. Test III oil presented higher particle count, in addition, ferrographic analysis revealed contamination with fibers and carbonized paper. However, these particles had little influence on the oil physicochemical parameters (dielectric loss and neutralization index) and on the gas production, which was very low. Test II oil showed high levels of methane, ethane, and propylene, indicating the effect of metal on oil degradation. CO₂ and CO gases were formed in the highest concentration in test III, as expected. Regarding volatile compounds, in test I acetone, benzene and toluene were detected, which are oil oxidation products. Regarding test III, methanol was identified due to cellulose degradation, as expected. Electric arc simulation test showed the highest oil oxidation in presence of copper and at high temperature, since these samples had huge concentration of hydrogen, ethylene, and acetylene. Particle count was also very high, showing the highest release of copper in such conditions. When comparing high and low energy, the first presented more hydrogen, ethylene, and acetylene. This sample had more similar results to test I, pointing out that the generation of different particles can be the cause for faults such as electric arc. Ferrography showed more evident copper and exfoliation particles than in other samples. Therefore, in this study, by using different combined analytical techniques, it was possible to correlate insulating oil characteristics with possible contaminants, which can lead to transformers failure.

Keywords: Ferrography, gas analysis, insulating mineral oil, particle contamination, transformer failures

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Authors: Ali Alsawayeh, Ibrahim Eldanfour

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This paper examines the extent of disclosure of oil and gas reserve quantum in annual reports of international oil and gas exploration and production companies, particularly companies in untested international markets, such as Canada, the UK and the US, and seeks to determine the underlying factors that affect the level of disclosure on oil reserve quantum. The study is concerned with the usefulness of disclosure of oil and gas reserves quantum to investors and other users. Given the primacy of the annual report (10-k) as a source of supplemental reserves data about the company and as the channel through which companies disseminate information about their performance, the annual reports for one year (2009) were the central focus of the study. This comparative study seeks to establish whether differences exist between the sample companies, based on new disclosure requirements by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in respect of reserves classification and definition. The extent of disclosure of reserve is provided and compared among the selected companies. Statistical analysis is performed to determine whether any differences exist in the extent of disclosure of reserve under the determinant variables. This study shows that some factors would affect the extent of disclosure of reserve quantum in the above-mentioned countries, namely: company’s size, leverage and quality of auditor. Companies that provide reserves quantum in detail appear to display higher size. The findings also show that the level of leverage has affected companies’ reserves quantum disclosure. Indeed, companies that provide detailed reserves quantum disclosure tend to employ a ‘high-quality auditor’. In addition, the study found significant independent variable such as Profit Sharing Contracts (PSC). This factor could explain variations in the level of disclosure of oil reserve quantum between the contractor and host governments. The implementation of SEC oil and gas reporting requirements do not enhance companies’ valuation because the new rules are based only on past and present reserves information (proven reserves); hence, future valuation of oil and gas companies is missing for the market.

Keywords: comparison, company characteristics, disclosure, reserve quantum, regulation

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Authors: Jiashu Shen, Guoting Zhang, Zhicheng Wang, Yu Wang, Yun Liang, Siyu Zou, Fan Yang, Kun Tang

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Objectives: This study aims to enhance the understanding of paid blood donors’ characteristics in Chinese population and devise strategies to protect these paid donors. Background: Paid blood donation was the predominant mode of blood donation in China from the 1970s to 1998 and caused several health and social problems including largely increased the risk of infectious diseases with nonstandard operation in unhygienic conditions. Methods: This study utilized the cross-sectional data from the China Kadoorie Biobank with about 0.5 million people from 10 regions of China from 2004 to 2008. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the associations between socio-demographic factors and paid blood donation. Furthermore, a stratified analysis was applied in education level and annual household income by rural and urban areas. Results: The prevalence of paid blood donation was 0.50% in China and males were more likely to donate blood than females (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =0.81, 95%Confident Intervals (CI): 0.75-0.88). Urban people had much lower odds than rural people (AOR =0.24, 95%CI: 0.21-0.27). People with a high annual household income had lower odds of paid blood donation compared with that of people with low income (AOR=0.37, 95%CI: 0.31-0.44). Compared with people who didn’t receive school education, people in a higher level of education had increased odds of paid blood donation (AOR=2.31, 95%CI: 1.94-2.74). Conclusion: Paid blood donors in China were associated with those who were males, living in rural areas, with low annual household income and educational background.

Keywords: China Kadoorie Biobank, Chinese population, paid blood donation, socio-demographic factors

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Authors: Chunhong Zhao

Abstract:

Remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) is vital to understand the land-atmosphere energy balance, hydrological cycle, and thus is widely used to describe the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. However, due to technical constraints, satellite thermal sensors are unable to provide LST measurement with both high spatial and high temporal resolution. Despite different downscaling techniques and algorithms to generate high spatiotemporal resolution LST. Four major metropolitan areas in Texas, USA: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin all demonstrate UHI effects. Different cities are expected to have varying SUHI effect during the urban development trajectory. With the help of the Landsat, ASTER, and MODIS archives, this study focuses on the spatial patterns of UHIs and the seasonal and annual variation of these metropolitan areas. With Gaussian model, and Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelations (LISA), as well as data fusion methods, this study identifies the hotspots and the trajectory of the UHI phenomenon of the four cities. By making comparison analysis, the result can help to alleviate the advent effect of UHI and formulate rational urban planning in the long run.

Keywords: spatiotemporal analysis, land surface temperature, urban heat island evaluation, metropolitan areas of Texas, USA

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Authors: Amirah Azzeri, Fatiha H. Shabaruddin, Scott A. McDonald, Rosmawati Mohamed, Maznah Dahlui

Abstract:

Objective: A scaled-up treatment cascade with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is necessary to achieve global WHO targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Malaysia. Recently, limited access to Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir (SOF/DAC) is available through compulsory licensing, with future access to Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) expected through voluntary licensing due to recent agreements. SOF/VEL has superior clinical outcomes, particularly for cirrhotic stages, but has higher drug acquisition costs compared to SOF/DAC. It has been proposed that a stratified treatment cascade might be the most cost-efficient approach for Malaysia whereby all HCV patients are treated with SOF/DAC except for patients with cirrhosis who are treated with SOF/VEL. This study aimed to conduct a five-year budget impact analysis from the provider perspective of the proposed stratified treatment cascade for HCV treatment in Malaysia. Method: A disease progression model that was developed based on model-predicted HCV epidemiology data in Malaysia was used for the analysis, where all HCV patients in scenario A were treated with SOF/DAC for all disease stages while in scenario B, SOF/DAC was used only for non-cirrhotic patients and SOF/VEL was used for the cirrhotic patients. The model projections estimated the annual numbers of patients in care and the numbers of patients to be initiated on DAA treatment nationally. Healthcare costs associated with DAA therapy and disease stage monitoring was included to estimate the downstream cost implications. For scenario B, the estimated treatment uptake of SOF/VEL for cirrhotic patients were 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% and 100% for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Healthcare costs were estimated based on standard clinical pathways for DAA treatment described in recent guidelines. All costs were reported in US dollars (conversion rate US$1=RM4.09, the price year 2018). Scenario analysis was conducted for 5% and 10% reduction of SOF/VEL acquisition cost anticipated from the competitive market pricing of generic DAA in Malaysia. Results: The stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL in Scenario B was found to be cost-saving compared to Scenario A. A substantial portion of the cost reduction was due to the costs associated with DAA therapy which resulted in USD 40 thousand (year 1) to USD 443 thousand (year 5) savings annually, with cumulative savings of USD 1.1 million after 5 years. Cost reductions for disease stage monitoring were seen in year three onwards which resulted in cumulative savings of USD 1.1 thousand. Scenario analysis estimated cumulative savings of USD 1.24 to USD 1.35 million when the acquisition cost of SOF/VEL was reduced. Conclusion: A stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL was expected to be cost-saving and can results in a budget impact reduction in overall healthcare expenditure in Malaysia compared to treatment with SOF/DAC. The better clinical efficacy with SOF/VEL is expected to halt patients’ HCV disease progression and may reduce downstream costs of treating advanced disease stages. The findings of this analysis may be useful to inform healthcare policies for HCV treatment in Malaysia.

Keywords: Malaysia, direct acting antiviral, compulsory licensing, voluntary licensing

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