Search results for: economic models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12732

Search results for: economic models

12612 Technology Adoption Models: A Study on Brick Kiln Firms in Punjab

Authors: Ajay Kumar, Shamily Jaggi

Abstract:

In developing countries like India development of modern technologies has been a key determinant in accelerating industrialization and urbanization. But in the pursuit of rapid economic growth, development is considered a top priority, while environmental protection is not given the same importance. Thus, a number of industries sited haphazardly have been established, leading to a deterioration of natural resources like water, soil and air. As a result, environmental pollution is tremendously increasing due to industrialization and mechanization that are serving to fulfill the demands of the population. With the increasing population, demand for bricks for construction work is also increasing, establishing the brick industry as a growing industry. Brick production requires two main resources; water as a source of life, and soil, as a living environment. Water and soil conservation is a critical issue in areas facing scarcity of water and soil resources. The purpose of this review paper is to provide a brief overview of the theoretical frameworks used in the analysis of the adoption and/or acceptance of soil and water conservation practices in the brick industry. Different frameworks and models have been used in the analysis of the adoption and/or acceptance of new technologies and practices; these include the technology acceptance model, motivational model, theory of reasoned action, innovation diffusion theory, theory of planned behavior, and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology. However, every model has some limitations, such as not considering environmental/contextual and economic factors that may affect the individual’s intention to perform a behavior. The paper concludes that in comparing other models, the UTAUT seems a better model for understanding the dynamics of acceptance and adoption of water and soil conservation practices.

Keywords: brick kiln, water conservation, soil conservation, unified theory of acceptance and use of technology, technology adoption

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12611 Innovative Methods of Improving Train Formation in Freight Transport

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

Abstract:

The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology

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12610 Circular Economy Maturity Models: A Systematic Literature Review

Authors: Dennis Kreutzer, Sarah Müller-Abdelrazeq, Ingrid Isenhardt

Abstract:

Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation, because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach, as they enable companies to determine the current status of their transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g. IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyse the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. Since the terms "maturity model" and "readiness model" are often used to assess the transformation process, this paper considers both types of models to provide a more comprehensive result. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analysed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the holism of their assessment framework. Only a few models include the entire company with supporting areas outside the value-creating core process, e.g. strategy and vision. Additionally, there are large differences in the number and type of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models often use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.

Keywords: maturity model, circular economy, transformation, metric, assessment

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12609 The Impact of the Economic Crisis in the European Identity

Authors: Sofía Luna, Carla González Salamanca

Abstract:

The 2008 economic crisis had huge implications in Europe. In this continent, the repercussions of the crisis were not only economic but also political and institutional. The economic stress has generated changes in the perception of the citizens, their attitude and the confidence placed in the political organizations. The lost of confidence is not only present in the debtor countries but it is also present in the European economic powers like Germany and France. This research explains how the economic crisis had an impact in the identity, population’s attitude and how this generated the rise of extreme right parties. In addition, it defines the different types of attitudes and support that exist towards these political and economic institutions. The results of this investigation show that the depression beside of its economic implications, it caused institutional, social and political difficulties for the Union. Moreover, the support and attitudes of the population were severely strained because the confidence in the political organization decreased. Furthermore, a rise in the otherness sentiment was shown. In other words, the distinction between “us” and “them” increased causing repercussions in the collective European identity. Additionally, there was a spread in national identities that caused the rise of the extreme right wing parties. In conclusion, the 2008 economic crisis caused not only economic stress but also it generated a political, social and institutional crisis in Europe.

Keywords: Europe, identity, economic crisis, otherness sentiment

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12608 Banking Performance and Political Economy: Using ARDL Model

Authors: Marwen Ghouil, Jamel Eddine Mkadmi

Abstract:

Banking performance is the pillar and goal of all banking activity and its impact on economic policy. First, researchers defined the principles for assessing and modeling bank performance, and then theories and models explaining bank performance were developed. The importance of credit as a means of financing businesses in most developing countries has led to questions about the effects of financial liberalisation on increased banking competition. In Tunisia, as in many other countries, the liberalization of financial services in general and of banks' activities has not ceased to evolve. The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of banking performance for 8 Tunisian banks and their impact on economic policy during the Arab Spring. We used cointegration analysis and the ARDL Panel model, explaining using total assets, bank credits, guarantees, and bank size as performance drivers. The correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation relationship between total assets, bank credits, guarantees, and bank size and bank performance. Long-term empirical results show that bank loans, guarantees, bank size, and total assets have a positive and significant impact on bank performance. This means that bank credits, guarantees, bank size, and total assets are very important determinants of bank performance in Tunisia.

Keywords: bank performance, economic policy, finance, economic

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12607 An Examination of Economic Evaluation Approaches in Mental Health Promotion Initiatives Targeted at Black and Asian Minority Ethnic Communities in the UK: A Critical Discourse Analysis

Authors: Phillipa Denise Peart

Abstract:

Black Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) people are more at risk of developing mental health disorders because they are more exposed to unfavorable social, economic, and environmental circumstances. These include housing, education, employment, community development, stigma, and discrimination. However, the majority of BAME mental health intervention studies focus on treatment with therapeutically effective drugs and use basic economic methods to evaluate their effectiveness; as a result, little is invested in the economic assessment of psychosocial interventions in BAME mental health. The UK government’s austerity programme and reduced funds for mental health services, has increased the need for the evaluation and assessment of initiatives to focus on value for money. The No Health without Mental Health policy (2011) provides practice guidance to practitioners, but there is little or no mention of the need to provide mental health initiatives targeted at BAME communities that are effective in terms of their impact and the cost-effectiveness. This, therefore, appears to contradict with and is at odds with the wider political discourse, which suggests there should be an increasing focus on health economic evaluation. As a consequence, it could be argued that whilst such policies provide direction to organisations to provide mental health services to the BAME community, by not requesting effective governance, assurance, and evaluation processes, they are merely paying lip service to address these problems and not helping advance knowledge and practice through evidence-based approaches. As a result, BAME communities suffer due to lack of efficient resources that can aid in the recovery process. This research study explores the mental health initiatives targeted at BAME communities, and analyses the techniques used when examining the cost effectiveness of mental health initiatives for BAME mental health communities. Using critical discourse analysis as an approach and method, mental health services will be selected as case studies, and their evaluations will be examined, alongside the political drivers that frame, shape, and direct their work. In doing so, it will analyse what the mental health policies initiatives are, how the initiatives are directed and demonstrate how economic models of evaluation are used in mental health programmes and how the value for money impacts and outcomes are articulated by mental health programme staff. It is anticipated that this study will further our understanding in order to provide adequate mental health resources and will deliver creative, supportive research to ensure evaluation is effective for the government to provide and maintain high quality and efficient mental health initiatives targeted at BAME communities.

Keywords: black, Asian and ethnic minority, economic models, mental health, health policy

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12606 SOM Map vs Hopfield Neural Network: A Comparative Study in Microscopic Evacuation Application

Authors: Zouhour Neji Ben Salem

Abstract:

Microscopic evacuation focuses on the evacuee behavior and way of search of safety place in an egress situation. In recent years, several models handled microscopic evacuation problem. Among them, we have proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as an alternative to mathematical models that can deal with such problem. In this paper, we present two ANN models: SOM map and Hopfield Network used to predict the evacuee behavior in a disaster situation. These models are tested in a real case, the second floor of Tunisian children hospital evacuation in case of fire. The two models are studied and compared in order to evaluate their performance.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, self-organization map, hopfield network, microscopic evacuation, fire building evacuation

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12605 A Predictive Model of Supply and Demand in the State of Jalisco, Mexico

Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

Abstract:

Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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12604 Possibility of Making Ceramic Models from Condemned Plaster of Paris (Pop) Moulds for Ceramics Production in Edo State Nigeria

Authors: Osariyekemwen, Daniel Nosakhare

Abstract:

Some ceramic wastes, such as discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) in Auchi Polytechnic, Edo State, constitute environmental hazards. This study, therefore, bridges the forgoing gaps by undertaking the use of these discarded (POP) moulds to produced ceramic models for making casting moulds for mass production. This is in line with the possibility of using this medium to properly manage the discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) that littered our immediate environment. Presently these are major wastes disposal in the department. Hence, the study has been made to fabricate sanitary miniature models and contract fuse models, respectively. Findings arising from this study show that discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) can be carved when to set it neither shrink nor expand; hence warping is quite unusual. Above all, it also gives good finishing with little deterioration with time when compared to clay models.

Keywords: plaster of Paris, condemn, moulds, models, production

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12603 A Closer Look on Economic and Fiscal Incentives for Digital TV Industry

Authors: Yunita Anwar, Maya Safira Dewi

Abstract:

With the increasing importance on digital TV industry, there must be several incentives given to support the growth of the industry. Prior research have found mixed findings of economic and fiscal incentives to economic growth, which means these incentives do not necessarily boost the economic growth while providing support to a particular industry. Focusing on a setting of digital TV transition in Indonesia, this research will conduct document analysis to analyze incentives have been given in other country and incentives currently available in Indonesia. Our results recommend that VAT exemption and local tax incentives could be considered to be added to the incentives list available for digital TV industry.

Keywords: Digital TV transition, Economic Incentives, Fiscal Incentives, Policy.

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
12602 Social Business Models: When Profits and Impacts Are Not at Odds

Authors: Elisa Pautasso, Matteo Castagno, Michele Osella

Abstract:

In the last decade, the emergence of new social needs as an effect of the economic crisis has stimulated the flourishing of business endeavours characterised by explicit social goals. Social start-ups, social enterprises or Corporate Social Responsibility operations carried out by traditional companies are quintessential examples in this regard. This paper analyses these kinds of initiatives in order to discover the main characteristics of social business models and to provide insights to social entrepreneurs for developing or improving their strategies. The research is conducted through the integration of literature review and case study analysis and, thanks to the recognition of the importance of both profits and social impacts as the key success factors for a social business model, proposes a framework for identifying indicators suitable for measuring the social impacts generated.

Keywords: business model, case study, impacts, social business

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12601 Improve Safety Performance of Un-Signalized Intersections in Oman

Authors: Siham G. Farag

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

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12600 A Systematic Approach to Defeat Regional Terrorism and Political Violence in Pakistan: Prospects of Youth Employment through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Authors: Muhammad Imran

Abstract:

In recent times, terrorism has been a major area of concern globally. Terrorism is ranked the number one concern across many countries, followed by political violence and poverty. The natural response to terrorism and violence across the countries is to increase expenditure on counterterrorism. This project study aims to explore the importance of job creation through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (a leading mega-project of the Belt and Road Initiative) to help Pakistan’s socio-economic situation and lead to minimize terrorism and violence across the country and help Chinese companies complete their multi-billion dollar projects peacefully. During the last two decades, Pakistan has been through severe insurgencies, political violence, and terrorism, which also caused a disturbance in delaying many developmental projects, including the CPEC project, and killed dozens of Chinese citizens working in Pakistan. One major area of debate is whether or not economic factors have any role to play in determining the extent of political violence and terrorism in Pakistan. The notion of a China-Pakistan economic corridor across the Karakorum Mountains to Gawadar faces severe challenges. Counterterrorism concerns are likely to be a persistent source of tension across the CPEC projects in different regions across the CPEC route in Pakistan. China’s promise to help industrialize Pakistan will ultimately lead to youth employment and prosperity. We hypothesize that youth unemployment can explain incidences of terrorism in Pakistan in the recent past. One of the main causes of these adverse situations is the unemployment of youth, who can become readily accessible to militant organizations for recruitment and training. This research project builds on existing research investigating the root causes of political violence and terrorism by considering youth unemployment as a measure of economic deprivation. We focus on the terrorism incident count data for 2001–2022, using negative binomial regression models. Literature suggests that, in the exogenous model, youth unemployment tends to increase political violence and domestic terrorism. Given concerns about the endogeneity of youth unemployment in these models, we will use two kinds of corrections: instrumental variables and lagged variables. To control for endogeneity, we intend to incorporate total population, military expenditure, foreign direct investment, and CPEC investment as instrumental variables.

Keywords: regional terrorism, political violence, youth employment, CPEC, belt and road initiative, Pakistan, China

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12599 Energy Consumption, Population and Economic Development Dynamics in Nigeria: An Empirical Evidence

Authors: Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin, Bright Orhewere

Abstract:

This study examined the role of the population in the linkage between energy consumption and economic development in Nigeria. Time series data on energy consumption, population, and economic development were used for the period 1995 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag -Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was engaged. Economic development had a negative substantial impact on energy consumption in the long run. Population growth had a positive significant effect on energy consumption. Government expenditure was also found to impact the level of energy consumption, while energy consumption is not a function of oil price in Nigeria.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, energy consumption, population, economic development, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
12598 Climate Change Impacts on Future Wheat Growing Areas

Authors: Rasha Aljaryian, Lalit Kumar

Abstract:

Climate is undergoing continuous change and this trend will affect the cultivation areas ofmost crops, including wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), in the future. The current suitable cultivation areas may become unsuitable climatically. Countries that depend on wheat cultivation and export may suffer an economic loss because of production decline. On the other hand, some regions of the world could gain economically by increasing cultivation areas. This study models the potential future climatic suitability of wheat by using CLIMEX software. Two different global climate models (GCMs) were used, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), with two emission scenarios (A2, A1B). The results of this research indicate that the suitable climatic areas for wheat in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, are expected to contract by the end of this century. However, some unsuitable or marginal areas will become climatically suitable under future climate scenarios. In North America and Europe further expansion inland could occur. Also, the results illustrate that heat and dry stresses as abiotic climatic factors will play an important role in wheat distribution in the future. Providing sufficient information about future wheat distribution will be useful for agricultural ministries and organizations to manage the shift in production areas in the future. They can minimize the expected harmful economic consequences by preparing strategic plans and identifying new areas for wheat cultivation.

Keywords: Climate change, Climate modelling, CLIMEX, Triticum aestivum, Wheat

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12597 Impact of Health Sector Economic Reforms in Underdeveloped Countries

Authors: Haga Abdelrahman Elimam

Abstract:

This paper investigates the connotation, and some of the realistic implications, of the economic reform of health sector in under developed countries. The paper investigates the issues that economic reforms have to address, and the policy targets they are considered to accomplish. The work argues that the development of economic reform is not connected only with understanding the priorities and refining them, furthermore with reformation and restructuring the organizations through which health policies are employed. Considering various organizational values, that are likely to be regular to all economic reform programs, a regulatory approach to institutional reform is unsuitable. The paper further investigates the selection of economic reform that may as well influence via technical suggestions and analysis, but the verdict to continue, and the consequent success of execution, eventually depends on the progressive political sustainability. The paper concludes by giving examples of institutional reforms from various underdeveloped countries and includes recommendation of the responsibility and control of donor organizations.

Keywords: economic reform, health sector, underdeveloped countries, technical suggestions

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12596 Tracing Economic Policies to Ancient Indian Economic Thought

Authors: Satish Y. Deodhar

Abstract:

Science without history is like a man without memory. The colossal history of India stores many ideas on economic ethics and public policy, which have been forgotten in the course of time. This paper is an attempt to bring to the fore contributions from ancient Indian treatises. In this context, the paper briefly summarizes alternative economic ideas such as communism, capitalism, and the holistic approach of ancient Indian writings. Thereafter, the idea of a welfare brick for an individual consisting of three dimensions -Purusharthas, Ashramas, and Varnas is discussed. Given the contours of the welfare brick, the concept of the state, its economic policies, markets, prices, interest rates, and credit are covered next. This is followed by delving into the treatment of land, property rights, guilds, and labour relations. The penultimate section summarises the economic advice offered to the head of a household in the treatise Shukranitisara. Finally, in concluding comments, the relevance of ancient Indian writings for modern times is discussed -both for pedagogy and economic policies.

Keywords: ancient Indian treatises, history of economic thought, science of political economy, Sanskrit

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12595 The Feasibility of Economic Science in Islam With an Emphasis on Sadr's Vantage Point

Authors: Yahya Jahangiri, Ali Almasi

Abstract:

Currently capitalism is one of the most important economic issues discussed by great scholars around the world. But Islamic approach, regarding this issue may differ both western and eastern views. A greatest scholar in Islamic economy ‘especially in Shia’ is Martyr Muhammad Baqir Al-Sadr. He wrote “Our economy” (Iqtisaduna) to present an economic point of view according to the Islamic teachings. In this regard firstly we will mention three approaches which are common in Muslim scullers about the economic science and then the main approach which is Sadr's view is described here. His claim explains that Islam and capitalism are in conflict with each other. And finally he explains the relationship between Islam and economy and he suggests the Islamic point of view in economy and its foundations as a solution for economic problems which we face today.

Keywords: Islam, economic science, capitalism, Martyr Sadr

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12594 The Role of Creative Works Dissemination Model in EU Copyright Law Modernization

Authors: Tomas Linas Šepetys

Abstract:

In online content-sharing service platforms, the ability of creators to restrict illicit use of audiovisual creative works has effectively been abolished, largely due to specific infrastructure where a huge volume of copyrighted audiovisual content can be made available to the public. The European Union legislator has attempted to strengthen the positions of creators in the realm of online content-sharing services. Article 17 of the new Digital Single Market Directive considers online content-sharing service providers to carry out acts of communication to the public of any creative content uploaded to their platforms by users and posits requirements to obtain licensing agreements. While such regulation intends to assert authors‘ ability to effectively control the dissemination of their creative works, it also creates threats of parody content overblocking through automated content monitoring. Such potentially paradoxical outcome of the efforts of the EU legislator to deliver economic safeguards for the creators in the online content-sharing service platforms leads to presume lack of informity on legislator‘s part regarding creative works‘ economic exploitation opportunities provided to creators in the online content-sharing infrastructure. Analysis conducted in this scientific research discloses that the aforementioned irregularities of parody and other creative content dissemination are caused by EU legislators‘ lack of assessment of value extraction conditions for parody creators in the online content-sharing service platforms. Historical and modeling research method application reveals the existence of two creative content dissemination models and their unique mechanisms of commercial value creation. Obligations to obtain licenses and liability over creative content uploaded to their platforms by users set in Article 17 of the Digital Single Market Directive represent technological replication of the proprietary dissemination model where the creator is able to restrict access to creative content apart from licensed retail channels. The online content-sharing service platforms represent an open dissemination model where the economic potential of creative content is based on the infrastructure of unrestricted access by users and partnership with advertising services offered by the platform. Balanced modeling of proprietary dissemination models in such infrastructure requires not only automated content monitoring measures but also additional regulatory monitoring solutions to separate parody and other types of creative content. An example of the Digital Single Market Directive proves that regulation can dictate not only the technological establishment of a proprietary dissemination model but also a partial reduction of the open dissemination model and cause a disbalance between the economic interests of creators relying on such models. The results of this scientific research conclude an informative role of the creative works dissemination model in the EU copyright law modernization process. A thorough understanding of the commercial prospects of the open dissemination model intrinsic to the online content-sharing service platform structure requires and encourages EU legislators to regulate safeguards for parody content dissemination. Implementing such safeguards would result in a common application of proprietary and open dissemination models in the online content-sharing service platforms and balanced protection of creators‘ economic interests explicitly based on those creative content dissemination models.

Keywords: copyright law, creative works dissemination model, digital single market directive, online content-sharing services

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12593 Modelling Volatility Spillovers and Cross Hedging among Major Agricultural Commodity Futures

Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

Abstract:

From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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12592 Economic Assessment Methodology to Support Decisions for Transport Infrastructure Development

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

Abstract:

The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning, decision making

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12591 The Economic System (Islam) and Riba's Prohibition on Historical Perspective

Authors: Risanda Alirastra Budiantoro, Riesanda Najmi Sasmita, Sri Herianingrum

Abstract:

Allah has given the guidance in the form of Islam for Muslim to take and lead all the aspects of life including the economic activity. The Islamic economic system is believed to be the answer to the economic problems that exist at this time. The goal is to achieve falah in kaffah by not doing some economic activities that are in violation as prescribed by Islam. An example for this is riba. Discourse on riba can be said ‘classical’ both in the development of Islamic thought and in Islamic civilization because riba often occurs in all aspects of public life, especially economic transactions (in Islam called muamalah). Riba is an additional retrieval, either in a sale and purchase transaction or lending in a false or contrary to the principle of muamalah in Islam. Prohibition of riba is obtained from various sources by the Qur'an and Hadith Rasulullah SAW, so the scholars firmly and clearly defined the prohibition of riba because there are exploitative elements that can harm the others. So, this study is aimed to identify Islamic economic system and the prohibition of riba in historical perspective. From the results of this study, it is expected to be a good reference for the reader to understand the Islamic economic system and riba in the future.

Keywords: economics system, riba, historical perspective, economy

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12590 Modelling and Maping Malnutrition Toddlers in Bojonegoro Regency with Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

Authors: Elvira Mustikawati P.H., Iis Dewi Ratih, Dita Amelia

Abstract:

Bojonegoro has proclaimed a policy of zero malnutrition. Therefore, as an effort to solve the cases of malnutrition children in Bojonegoro, this study used the approach geographically Mixed Weighted Regression (MGWR) to determine the factors that influence the percentage of malnourished children under five in which factors can be divided into locally influential factor in each district and global factors that influence throughout the district. Based on the test of goodness of fit models, R2 and AIC values in GWR models are better than MGWR models. R2 and AIC values in MGWR models are 84.37% and 14.28, while the GWR models respectively are 91.04% and -62.04. Based on the analysis with GWR models, District Sekar, Bubulan, Gondang, and Dander is a district with three predictor variables (percentage of vitamin A, the percentage of births assisted health personnel, and the percentage of clean water) that significantly influence the percentage of malnourished children under five.

Keywords: GWR, MGWR, R2, AIC

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12589 Optimized Text Summarization Model on Mobile Screens for Sight-Interpreters: An Empirical Study

Authors: Jianhua Wang

Abstract:

To obtain key information quickly from long texts on small screens of mobile devices, sight-interpreters need to establish optimized summarization model for fast information retrieval. Four summarization models based on previous studies were studied including title+key words (TKW), title+topic sentences (TTS), key words+topic sentences (KWTS) and title+key words+topic sentences (TKWTS). Psychological experiments were conducted on the four models for three different genres of interpreting texts to establish the optimized summarization model for sight-interpreters. This empirical study shows that the optimized summarization model for sight-interpreters to quickly grasp the key information of the texts they interpret is title+key words (TKW) for cultural texts, title+key words+topic sentences (TKWTS) for economic texts and topic sentences+key words (TSKW) for political texts.

Keywords: different genres, mobile screens, optimized summarization models, sight-interpreters

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
12588 Analysis of the Evolution of Social and Economic Indicators of the Mercosur´s Members: 1980-2012

Authors: L. Aparecida Bastos, J. Leige Lopes, J. Crepaldi, R. Monteiro da Silva

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of some social and economic indicators of Mercosur´s economies from 1980 to 2012, based on the statistics of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). The objective is to observe if after the accession of these economies to Mercosur (the first accessions occurred in 1994) these indicators showed better performance, in order to demonstrate if economic integration contributed to improved trade, macroeconomic performance, and level of social and economic development of member countries. To this end, the methodologies used will be a literature review and descriptive statistics. The theoretical framework that guides the work are the theories of Integration: Classical Liberal, Marxist and structural-proactive. The results reveal that most social and economic indicators showed better performance in those economies that joined Mercosur after 1994. This work is the result of an investigation already completed.

Keywords: economic integration, Mercosur, social indicators, economic indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
12587 A Comparative Analysis of E-Government Quality Models

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

Abstract:

Many quality models have been used to measure e-government portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: e-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126

Procedia PDF Downloads 528
12586 Assimilating Remote Sensing Data Into Crop Models: A Global Systematic Review

Authors: Luleka Dlamini, Olivier Crespo, Jos van Dam

Abstract:

Accurately estimating crop growth and yield is pivotal for timely sustainable agricultural management and ensuring food security. Crop models and remote sensing can complement each other and form a robust analysis tool to improve crop growth and yield estimations when combined. This study thus aims to systematically evaluate how research that exclusively focuses on assimilating RS data into crop models varies among countries, crops, data assimilation methods, and farming conditions. A strict search string was applied in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 497 potential publications were obtained. After screening for relevance with predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, 123 publications were considered in the final review. Results indicate that over 81% of the studies were conducted in countries associated with high socio-economic and technological advancement, mainly China, the United States of America, France, Germany, and Italy. Many of these studies integrated MODIS or Landsat data into WOFOST to improve crop growth and yield estimation of staple crops at the field and regional scales. Most studies use recalibration or updating methods alongside various algorithms to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index into crop models. However, these methods cannot account for the uncertainties in remote sensing observations and the crop model itself. l. Over 85% of the studies were based on commercial and irrigated farming systems. Despite a great global interest in data assimilation into crop models, limited research has been conducted in resource- and data-limited regions like Africa. We foresee a great potential for such application in those conditions. Hence facilitating and expanding the use of such an approach, from which developing farming communities could benefit.

Keywords: crop models, remote sensing, data assimilation, crop yield estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
12585 Assimilating Remote Sensing Data into Crop Models: A Global Systematic Review

Authors: Luleka Dlamini, Olivier Crespo, Jos van Dam

Abstract:

Accurately estimating crop growth and yield is pivotal for timely sustainable agricultural management and ensuring food security. Crop models and remote sensing can complement each other and form a robust analysis tool to improve crop growth and yield estimations when combined. This study thus aims to systematically evaluate how research that exclusively focuses on assimilating RS data into crop models varies among countries, crops, data assimilation methods, and farming conditions. A strict search string was applied in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 497 potential publications were obtained. After screening for relevance with predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, 123 publications were considered in the final review. Results indicate that over 81% of the studies were conducted in countries associated with high socio-economic and technological advancement, mainly China, the United States of America, France, Germany, and Italy. Many of these studies integrated MODIS or Landsat data into WOFOST to improve crop growth and yield estimation of staple crops at the field and regional scales. Most studies use recalibration or updating methods alongside various algorithms to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index into crop models. However, these methods cannot account for the uncertainties in remote sensing observations and the crop model itself. l. Over 85% of the studies were based on commercial and irrigated farming systems. Despite a great global interest in data assimilation into crop models, limited research has been conducted in resource- and data-limited regions like Africa. We foresee a great potential for such application in those conditions. Hence facilitating and expanding the use of such an approach, from which developing farming communities could benefit.

Keywords: crop models, remote sensing, data assimilation, crop yield estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
12584 The Quality of Economic Growth Regency and Cities in West Java Province: Inclusive Economic Growth

Authors: Fryanto Anugrah Rhamdhani Rhamdhani, Hana Riana Permatasari

Abstract:

The aim of this study analyzes the inclusive of economic growth and analyzes the inclusive of economic growth determinant in regency and city (West Java Province). The background this study Economic Growth can do not afford to reduce poverty, Disparity and expand The Workforce. Referring Central Bureau Of Statistic West Java Province report in 2015 recorded only 5 regions able reduce poverty, 3 regions able reduce Gini Ratio and 7 regions able Workforce Absorption, meanwhile, 11 regions was improved Economic Growth. The Inclusive of Economic Growth definition based on various literature means the quality Economic Growth able reduce Poverty, Gini Ratio, and Workforce absorption. This study adopted the measurement Inclusive Economic of Growth Klassen and analyzes factor in Term Reducing Poverty, Gini Ratio, and the workforce Absorption. Data used panels data composite time series and cross-section including 25 regency and cities regions from Central Bureau Of Statistic West Java Province during 2014-2015. As a result, the measurement inclusive economic of growth Klassen 2014-2015 from 25 regency and cities shows all region does not inclusive reducing Poverty, only 2 regions able reduce Gini Ratio and 3 regions able increase Workforce absorption. Different from the result the measurement Inclusive Economic of Growth for workforce absorption, several regions shows a negative coefficient indicates Economic Growth decline Workforce absorption. The outcome of this study analyzes factor of Inclusive economic of Growth, so that give recommendations for government achieve inclusive economic of growth toward Sustainable Economic. Can be Concluded above low-quality Economic Growth, that due to all region does not inclusive Economic of Growth.

Keywords: inclusive economic growth, Gini ratio, poverty, workforce

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12583 An Application of the Single Equation Regression Model

Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

Abstract:

Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 26