Search results for: early warning model

Authors: Oktia Woro Kasmini Handayani, Sri Ratna Rahayu, Efa Nugroho, Bertakalswa Hermawati

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In Indonesia, from 2007 until 2013, the prevalence of overnutrition in children under five years and school age tends to increase. Clean and Health Life Behavior of school children supporting nutrition status still below the determined target. On the other side, school institution is an ideal place to educate and form health behavior, that should be initiated as early as possible (Early Age Education/PAUD level). The objective of this research was to find out the effectivity of education model through partnership with school institution in urban region, city of Semarang, Central Java Province, Indonesia. The research used quantitative approach supported with qualitative data. The population consist of all mother having school children of ages 3-5 years within the research region; sampling technique was purposive sampling, as many as 237 mothers. Research instrument was Clean and Health Life Behavior evaluation questionaire, and video as education media. The research used experimental design. Data analysis used effectivity criteria from Sugiyono and 2 paired sampel t test. Education model optimalization in the effort to improve nutrition status indicates t test result with signification < 0.05 (there was significant effect before and after model intervention), with effectivity test result of 79% (effective), but still below expected target which is 80%. Education model need to be utilized and optimallized the implementation so that expected target reached.

Keywords: nutrition status, early age education, clean dan health life behavior, education model

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Authors: Faith-Michael E. Uzoka, Boluwaji A. Akinnuwesi, Taiwo Amoo, Flora Aladi, Stephen Fashoto, Moses Olaniyan, Joseph Osuji

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The overarching aim of this study is to develop a soft-computing system for the differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. These conditions are of concern to health bodies, physicians, and the community at large because of their mortality rates, and difficulties in early diagnosis due to the fact that they present with symptoms that overlap, and thus become ‘confusable’. We report on the first phase of our study, which focuses on the development of a fuzzy cognitive map model for early differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. We used malaria as a case disease to show the effectiveness of the FCM technology as an aid to the medical practitioner in the diagnosis of tropical diseases. Our model takes cognizance of manifested symptoms and other non-clinical factors that could contribute to symptoms manifestations. Our model showed 85% accuracy in diagnosis, as against the physicians’ initial hypothesis, which stood at 55% accuracy. It is expected that the next stage of our study will provide a multi-disease, multi-symptom model that also improves efficiency by utilizing a decision support filter that works on an algorithm, which mimics the physician’s diagnosis process.

Keywords: medical diagnosis, tropical diseases, fuzzy cognitive map, decision support filters, malaria differential diagnosis

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Authors: Ulrich Wake, Eniman Syamsuddin

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The model for camera model identificaiton is trained using pretrained model ResNet43 and ResNet50. The dataset consists of 500 photos of each phone. Dataset is divided into 1280 photos for training, 320 photos for validation and 400 photos for testing. The model is trained using One Cycle Policy Method and tested using Test-Time Augmentation. Furthermore, the model is trained for 50 epoch using regularization such as drop out and early stopping. The result is 90% accuracy for validation set and above 85% for Test-Time Augmentation using ResNet50. Every model is also trained by slightly updating the pretrained model’s weights

Keywords: ​ One Cycle Policy, ResNet34, ResNet50, Test-Time Agumentation

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Anshika Kankane, Dongshik Kang

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Marine debris has a significant influence on coastal environments, damaging biodiversity, and causing loss and damage to marine and ocean sector. A functional cost-effective and automatic approach has been used to look up at this problem. Computer vision combined with a deep learning-based model is being proposed to identify and categorize marine debris of seven kinds on different beach locations of Japan. This research compares state-of-the-art deep learning models with a suggested model architecture that is utilized as a feature extractor for debris categorization. The model is being proposed to detect seven categories of litter using a manually constructed debris dataset, with the help of Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation and a shape matching network called HOGShape, which can then be cleaned on time by clean-up organizations using warning notifications of the system. The manually constructed dataset for this system is created by annotating the images taken by fixed KaKaXi camera using CVAT annotation tool with seven kinds of category labels. A pre-trained HOG feature extractor on LIBSVM is being used along with multiple templates matching on HOG maps of images and HOG maps of templates to improve the predicted masked images obtained via Mask R-CNN training. This system intends to timely alert the cleanup organizations with the warning notifications using live recorded beach debris data. The suggested network results in the improvement of misclassified debris masks of debris objects with different illuminations, shapes, viewpoints and litter with occlusions which have vague visibility.

Keywords: computer vision, debris, deep learning, fixed live camera images, histogram of gradients feature extractor, instance segmentation, manually annotated dataset, multiple template matching

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Authors: Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler, Gavin Quibell

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Malawi is one of the world’s poorest nations and consequently, the design of flood risk management infrastructure comes with a different set of challenges. There is a lack of good quality hydromet data, both in spatial terms and in the quality thereof and the challenge in the design of flood risk management infrastructure is compounded by the fact that maintenance is almost completely non-existent and that solutions have to be simple to be effective. Solutions should not require any further resources to remain functional after completion, and they should be resilient. They also have to be cost effective. The Lower Shire Valley of Malawi suffers from frequent flood events. Various flood risk management interventions have been designed across the valley during the course of the Shire River Basin Management Project – Phase I, and due to the data poor environment, indigenous knowledge was relied upon to a great extent for hydrological and hydraulic model calibration and verification. However, indigenous knowledge comes with the caveat that it is ‘fuzzy’ and that it can be manipulated for political reasons. The experience in the Lower Shire valley suggests that indigenous knowledge is unlikely to invent a problem where none exists, but that flood depths and extents may be exaggerated to secure prioritization of the intervention. Indigenous knowledge relies on the memory of a community and cannot foresee events that exceed past experience, that could occur differently to those that have occurred in the past, or where flood management interventions change the flow regime. This complicates communication of planned interventions to local inhabitants. Indigenous knowledge is, for the most part, intuitive, but flooding can sometimes be counter intuitive, and the rural poor may have a lower trust of technology. Due to a near complete lack of maintenance of infrastructure, infrastructure has to be designed with no moving parts and no requirement for energy inputs. This precludes pumps, valves, flap gates and sophisticated warning systems. Designs of dykes during this project included ‘flood warning spillways’, that double up as pedestrian and animal crossing points, which provide warning of impending dangerous water levels behind dykes to residents before water levels that could cause a possible dyke failure are reached. Locally available materials and erosion protection using vegetation were used wherever possible to keep costs down.

Keywords: design of dykes in low-income countries, flood warning spillways, indigenous knowledge, Malawi

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Authors: Jixiang Lei, Alexander Fuchs, Franz Pernkopf, Katrin Ellermann

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Within the Space@Sea project, funded by the Horizon 2020 program, an island consisting of multiple platforms was designed. The platforms are connected by ropes and fenders. The connection is critical with respect to the safety of the whole system. Therefore, fault detection systems are investigated, which could detect early warning signs for a possible failure in the connection elements. Previously, a model-based method called Extended Kalman Filter was developed to detect the reduction of rope stiffness. This method detected several types of faults reliably, but some types of faults were much more difficult to detect. Furthermore, the model-based method is sensitive to environmental noise. When the wave height is low, a long time is needed to detect a fault and the accuracy is not always satisfactory. In this sense, it is necessary to develop a more accurate and robust technique that can detect all rope faults under a wide range of operational conditions. Inspired by this work on the Space at Sea design, we introduce a fault diagnosis method based on deep neural networks. Our method cannot only detect rope degradation by using the acceleration data from each platform but also estimate the contributions of the specific acceleration sensors using methods from explainable AI. In order to adapt to different operational conditions, the domain adaptation technique DANN is applied. The proposed model can accurately estimate rope degradation under a wide range of environmental conditions and help users understand the relationship between the output and the contributions of each acceleration sensor.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, deep learning, domain adaptation, explainable AI

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: Nikita Rajendra Sharma, Jai Prakash Kushvah, Gerhard Rinkenauer

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Driving a car is a discrete aiming movement in which drivers aim at successful extraction of relevant information and elimination of potentially distracting one. It is the motor preparation which enables one to react to certain stimuli onsite by allowing perceptual process for optimal adjustment. Drivers prepare their responses according to the available resources of advanced and ongoing information to drive efficiently. It requires constant programming and reprogramming of the motor system. The reaction time (RT) is shorter when a response signal is preceded by a warning signal. The reason behind this reduced time in responding to targets is that the warning signal causes the participant to prepare for the upcoming response by updating the motor program before the execution. While performing the primary task of changing lanes while driving, the simultaneous occurrence of additional information during the presentation of cues (congruent or incongruent with respect to target cue) might impact the motor preparation and execution. The presence of additional information (other than warning or response signal) between warning signal and imperative stimulus influences human motor preparation to a reasonable extent. The present study was aimed to assess the impact of congruent and incongruent additional information (with respect to imperative stimulus) on driving performance (reaction time, steering wheel amplitude, and steering wheel duration) during a lane change task. implementing movement pre-cueing paradigm. 22 young valid car-drivers (Mage = 24.1+/- 3.21 years, M = 10, F = 12, age-range 21-33 years) participated in the study. The study revealed that additional information influenced the overall driving performance as potential distractors and relevant information. Findings suggest that the events of additional information relatively influenced the reaction time and steering wheel angle as potential distractor or irrelevant information. Participants took longer to respond, and higher steering wheel angles were reported for targets coupled with additional information in comparison with warning signs preceded by potential distractors and the participants' response time was more for a higher number of lanes (2 Lanes > 1 Lane). The same additional information appearing interchangeably at warning signals and targets worked as relevant information facilitating the motor programming in the trails where they were congruent with the direction of lane change direction.

Keywords: additional information, lane change task, motor preparation, movement pre-cueing, reaction time, steering wheel amplitude

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Authors: Laxman Budhathoki, Lal Bahadur Shrestha, K. C. Laxman

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Hundreds of people are being lost their life by flood disaster in Nepal every year. Community-based disaster management committee has formed to formulate the disaster management plan including the component of EWS like EWS tower, rain gauge station, flood gauge station, culverts, boats, ropes, life jackets, a communication mechanism, emergency shelter, Spur, dykes, dam, evacuation route, emergency dry food management etc. Now EWS become a successful tool to decrease the human casualty from 13 to 0 every year in Rapti River of Chitwan District.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, early warning system, flood, participatory approach

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Authors: Sujay Kotwale, Ramasubba Reddy M.

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Electrocardiogram (ECG) is a non-invasive technique used to study and analyze various heart diseases. Cardiac arrhythmia is a serious heart disease which leads to death of the patients, when left untreated. An early-time detection of cardiac arrhythmia would help the doctors to do proper treatment of the heart. In the past, various algorithms and machine learning (ML) models were used to early-time detection of cardiac arrhythmia, but few of them have achieved better results. In order to improve the performance, this paper implements principal component analysis (PCA) along with XGBoost model. The PCA was implemented to the raw ECG signals which suppress redundancy information and extracted significant features. The obtained significant ECG features were fed into XGBoost model and the performance of the model was evaluated. In order to valid the proposed technique, raw ECG signals obtained from standard MIT-BIH database were employed for the analysis. The result shows that the performance of proposed method is superior to the several state-of-the-arts techniques.

Keywords: cardiac arrhythmia, electrocardiogram, principal component analysis, XGBoost

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Authors: Wendy Lee

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From the mid-twentieth century onward, the notion of ‘attachment’ has been used to define the optimum relationship between young children and their carers; first applied to parents and young children and more recently with early childhood educators and children in their care. However, it is seldom, if ever, asked whether the notion of ‘attachment’ and more especially so-called Attachment Theory, as propounded by John Bowlby and others, provides a sound basis for conceptualising child-adult relationships in early years. Even if appropriate in the context of family, the use of the term raises a number of questions when used in early childhood education. Research has shown that our youngest children (infants) in early childhood centre based care settings, are given the utmost priority to build 'attachments' with their educators. But exactly when, how and why does this priority diminish - and should it (for preschoolers)? This presentation will elaborate on such issues and will argue that there is a need to reconceptualise and redefine how 'quality relationships' should be measured and implemented in the daily practices and pedagogical methods adopted by early childhood educators. Moreover, this presentation will include data collected from the empirical study conducted, that observed various early childhood educators and children in Australian early childhood centres. Lastly, the thoughts, feelings and desires of parents of children in early childhood centre-based care, regarding the term 'attachment' and 'quality relationships' will be shared in the hope that we can take one step closer in bridging the needs of families, children, early childhood centres, educators, and the wider community.

Keywords: attachment, early childhood education, pedagogy, relationships

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Authors: Aby Nesan Raj, Sumil K. Raj, Sumesh Jayan

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The objective of the study is to formulate a self-regulation model that shall enhance the usage of Intelligent Transportation Systems by understanding the theory of self-efficacy. The core logic of the self-regulation model shall monitor driver's behavior based on the situations related to the various sources of Self Efficacy like enactive mastery, vicarious experience, verbal persuasion and physiological arousal in addition to the vehicle data. For this study, four different vehicle data, speed, drowsiness, diagnostic data and surround camera views are considered. This data shall be given to the self-regulation model for evaluation. The oddness, which is the output of self-regulation model, shall feed to Intelligent Transportation Systems where appropriate actions are being taken. These actions include warning to the user as well as the input to the related transportation systems. It is also observed that the usage of vehicle as a sensor reduces the wastage of resource utilization or duplication. Altogether, this approach enhances the intelligence of the transportation systems especially in safety, productivity and environmental performance.

Keywords: emergency management, intelligent transportation system, self-efficacy, traffic management

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Lian Yang

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Object-oriented programming (OOP) is the dominant programming paradigm in today’s software industry and it has literally enabled average software developers to develop millions of commercial strength software applications in the era of INTERNET revolution over the past three decades. On the other hand, the lack of strict mathematical model and domain constraint features at the language level has long perplexed the computer science academia and OOP engineering community. This situation resulted in inconsistent system qualities and hard-to-understand designs in some OOP projects. The difficulties with regards to fix the current situation are also well known. Although the power of OOP lies in its unbridled flexibility and enormously rich data modeling capability, we argue that the ambiguity and the implicit facade surrounding the conceptual model of a class and an object should be eliminated as much as possible. We listed the five major usage of class and propose to separate them by proposing new language constructs. By using well-established theories of set and FSM, we propose to apply certain simple, generic, and yet effective constraints at OOP language level in an attempt to find a possible solution to the above-mentioned issues regarding OOP. The goal is to make OOP more theoretically sound as well as to aid programmers uncover warning signs of irregularities and domain-specific issues in applications early on the development stage and catch semantic mistakes at runtime, improving correctness verifiability of software programs. On the other hand, the aim of this paper is more practical than theoretical.

Keywords: new language constructs, set theory, FSM theory, user defined value type, function groups, membership qualification attribute (MQA), check-constraint (CC)

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Authors: Candace Kaye

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After a theoretical explanation of Third Space, the paper introduces the concept of art museum settings as third spaces for early inquiry-based core curriculum teaching/learning, Next follows a discussion of phenomenological research that explores how an art museum in Mexico is introducing a wide spectrum of teaching-learning experiences that would otherwise be inaccessible in the second space of the traditional public kindergarten classroom settings. The presentations focus on the research findings that indicate an early arts education in museum transitions from being a pedagogy of only geographical out-of-classroom space to a pedagogy of a true educational Third Space. The presentation concludes with an argument for the importance of using art museums as a Third Space for creatively teaching early core curriculum..

Keywords: early arts museum education, early childhood education, third space in education, phenomenological research

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Authors: Girish M. Bhatia

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Most of the important structures in refinery complex are RCC Structures for which in-depth structural monitoring and inspection is required for incessant service. Reinforced concrete structures can be under threat from a combination of insidious challenges due to environmental conditions, including temperature and humidity that lead to accelerated deterioration mechanisms like carbonation, as well as marine exposure, above and below ground structures can experience ingress from aggressive ground waters carrying chlorides and sulphates leading to unexpected deterioration that threaten the integrity of a vital structural asset. By application of health monitoring techniques like corrosion monitoring with help of sensor probes, visual inspection of high rise structures with help of drones, it is possible to establish an early warning at the onset of these destructive processes.

Keywords: concrete structures, corrosion sensors, drones, health monitoring

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Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

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Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring

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Authors: Muhammad Irfan

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The rise of radicalization within Islam has spawned a new era of global terror. The battlefield Successes of ISIS and the Taliban are fuelled by an ideological war waged, largely and successfully, in the media arena. This research will examine how Islamic extremist groups are using media modalities and populist narratives to influence migrant Muslim populations in Europe towards extremism. In 2014, ISIS shocked the world in exporting horrifically graphic forms of violence on social media. Their Muslim support base was largely disgusted and reviled. In response, they reconfigured their narrative by introducing populist 'hooks', astutely portraying the Muslim populous as oppressed and exploited by unjust, corrupt autocratic regimes and Western power structures. Within this crucible of real and perceived oppression, hundreds of thousands of the most desperate, vulnerable and abused migrants left their homelands, risking their lives in the hope of finding peace, justice, and prosperity in Europe. Instead, many encountered social stigmatization, detention and/or discrimination for being illegal migrants, for lacking resources and for simply being Muslim. This research will examine how Islamic extremist groups are exploiting the disenfranchisement of these migrant populations and using populist messaging on social media to influence them towards violent extremism. ISIS, in particular, formulates specific encoded messages for newly-arriving Muslims in Europe, preying upon their vulnerability. Violence is posited, as a populist response, to the tyranny of European oppression. This research will analyze the factors and indicators which propel Muslim migrants along the spectrum from resilience to violence extremism. Expected outcomes are identification of factors which influence vulnerability towards violent extremism; an early-warning detection framework; predictive analysis models; and de-radicalization frameworks. This research will provide valuable tools (practical and policy level) for European governments, security stakeholders, communities, policy-makers, and educators; it is anticipated to contribute to a de-escalation of Islamic extremism globally.

Keywords: populism, radicalization, de-radicalization, social media, ISIS, Taliban, shariah, jihad, Islam, Europe, political communication, terrorism, migrants, refugees, extremism, global terror, predictive analysis, early warning detection, models, strategic communication, populist narratives, Islamic extremism

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Authors: Osvaldo Collazo, Cristiano Valerio Dos Santos

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Early maternal separation has been shown to bring about many negative effects on behavior in rats. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of early maternal separation on risky choice in rats. One group of male and female Wistar rats was exposed to an early maternal separation protocol while a control group was left undisturbed. Then both groups were exposed to a series of behavioral tests, including a test of risky choice, where one alternative offered a constant reward while the other offered a variable reward. There was a difference between groups when they chose between a variable and a constant reward delay, but no other difference was significant. These results suggest that early maternal separation may be related to a greater preference for shorter delays, which is characteristic of more impulsive choices.

Keywords: early maternal separation, impulsivity, risky choice, variability

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Authors: Meng-Huan Wu, Wei-Er Wang, Tsu-Nai Wang, Wei-Jian Hsu, Vincent Chin-Hung Chen

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Objective: Studies have reported a strong link between asthma and bipolar disorder. We conducted a 17-year community-based large cohort study to examine the relationship between asthma, early smoking initiation, and bipolar disorder during adolescence and early adulthood. Methods: A total of 162,766 participants aged 11–16 years were categorized into asthma and non-asthma groups at baseline and compared within the observation period. Covariates during late childhood or adolescence included parental education, cigarette smoking by family members of participants, and participant’s gender, age, alcohol consumption, smoking, and exercise habits. Data for urbanicity, prednisone use, allergic comorbidity, and Charlson comorbidity index were acquired from the National Health Insurance Research Database. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to evaluate the association between asthma and bipolar disorder. Results: Our findings revealed that asthma increased the risk of bipolar disorder after adjustment for key confounders in the Cox proportional hazard regression model (adjusted HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.53). Hospitalizations or visits to the emergency department for asthma exhibited a dose–response effect on bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.22-2.06). Patients with asthma with onset before 20 years of age who smoked during late childhood or adolescence had the greatest risk for bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.29-7.44). Conclusions: Patients newly diagnosed with asthma had a 1.3 times higher risk of developing bipolar disorder. Smoking during late childhood or adolescence increases the risk of developing bipolar disorder in patients with asthma.

Keywords: adolescence, asthma, smoking, bipolar disorder, early adulthood

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Authors: Oyenike Eludoyin

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Extreme climate conditions are deviation from the norms and are capable of causing upsets in many important environmental parameter including disruption of water balance and air temperature balance. Studies have shown that extreme climate conditions can foretell disaster in regions with inadequate early warning systems. In this paper, we combined geographical information systems, statistics and social surveys to evaluate the physiologic indices [(Dewpoint Temperature (Td), Effective Temperature Index (ETI) and Relative Strain Index (RSI)] and extreme climate conditions in different parts of southwest Nigeria. This was with the view to assessing the nature and the impact of the conditions on the people and their coping strategies. The results indicate that minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were higher in 1960-1990 than 1991-2013 periods at most areas, and more than 80% of the people adapt to thermal stress by changing wear type or cloth, installing air conditioner and fan at home and/or work place and sleeping outside at certain period of the night and day. With respect to livelihoods, about 52% of the interviewed farmers indicated that too early rainfall, late rainfall, prolonged dryness after an initial rainfall, excessive rainfall and windstorms caused low crop yields. Main (76%) coping strategies were changing of planting dates, diversification of crops, and practices of mulching and intercropping. Government or institutional support was less than 20%.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme climate, livelihoods, physiologic comfort

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Authors: Ellen Patricia, Marilou Hyson

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Coaching has been showing great potential to strengthen the impact of brief group trainings and help early childhood teachers solve specific problems at work with the goal of raising the quality of early childhood services. However, there have been some doubts about the benefits that village teachers can receive from coaching. It is perceived that village teachers may struggle with the thinking skills needed to make coaching beneficial. Furthermore, there are reservations about whether principals and supervisors in villages are open to coaching’s facilitative approach, as opposed to the directive approach they have been using. As such, the use of coaching to develop the professionalism of early childhood teachers in the villages needs to be examined. The Coaching Pilot for early childhood teachers in Indonesia villages provides insights for the above issues. The Coaching Pilot is part of the ECED Frontline Pilot, which is a collaboration project between the Government of Indonesia and the World Bank with the support from the Australian Government (DFAT). The Pilot started with coordinated efforts with the local government in two districts to select principals and supervisors who have been equipped with basic knowledge about early childhood education to take part in 2-days coaching training. Afterwards, the participants were asked to collect 25 hours of coaching early childhood teachers who have participated in the Enhanced Basic Training for village teachers. The participants who completed this requirement were then invited to come for an assessment of their coaching skills. Following that, a qualitative evaluation was conducted using in-depth interviews and Focus Group Discussion techniques. The evaluation focuses on the impact of the coaching pilot in helping the village teachers to develop in their professionalism, as well as on the sustainability of the intervention. Results from the evaluation indicated that although their low education may limit their thinking skills, village teachers benefited from the coaching that they received. Moreover, the evaluation results also suggested that with enough training and support, principals and supervisors in the villages were able to provide an adequate coaching service for the teachers. On top of that, beyond this small start, interest is growing, both within the pilot districts and even beyond, due to word of mouth of the benefits that the Coaching Pilot has created. The districts where coaching was piloted have planned to continue the coaching program, since a number of early childhood teachers have requested to be coached, and a number of principals and supervisors have also requested to be trained as a coach. Furthermore, the Association for Early Childhood Educators in Indonesia has started to adopt coaching into their program. Although further research is needed, the Coaching Pilot suggests that coaching can positively impact early childhood teachers in villages, and village principals and supervisors can become a promising source of future coaches. As such, coaching has a significant potential to become a sustainable model for a continuous professional development program for early childhood teachers in villages.

Keywords: coaching, coaching pilot, early childhood teachers, principals and supervisors, village teachers

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Authors: Hernani Brinati, Mardel de Conti, Moyses Szajnbok, Valentina Domiciano

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This study brings a mathematical model and examples for the numerical prediction of submersible maneuvers in the horizontal and in the vertical planes. The geometry of the submarine is here taken as a body of revolution plus a sail, two horizontal and two vertical rudders. The model includes the representation of the hull resistance and of the propeller thrust and torque, what enables to consider the variation of the longitudinal component of the velocity of the ship when maneuvering. The hydrodynamic forces are represented through power series expansions of the acceleration and velocity components. The hydrodynamic derivatives for the body of revolution are mostly estimated based on fundamental principles applicable to the flow around airplane fuselages in the subsonic regime. The hydrodynamic forces for the sail and rudders are estimated based on a finite aspect ratio wing theory. The objective of this study is to build an expedite model for submarine maneuvers prediction, based on fundamental principles, which may be convenient in the early stages of the ship design. This model is tested against available numerical and experimental data.

Keywords: submarine maneuvers, submarine, maneuvering, dynamics

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Authors: Khadija Al-Hosni, Moon Fai Chan, Mohammed Al-Azri

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Background: Several studies suggest that most school-age adolescents are poorly informed on cancer warning signs and risk factors. Providing adolescents with sufficient knowledge would increase their awareness in adulthood and improve seeking behaviors later. Significant: The results will provide a clear vision in assisting key decision-makers in formulating policies on the students' awareness programs towards cancer. So, the likelihood of avoiding cancer in the future will be increased or even promote early diagnosis. Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness of an education program designed to increase awareness of cancer signs and symptoms risk factors, improve the behavior of seeking help among school students in Oman, and address the barriers to obtaining medical help. Methods: A randomized controlled trial with two groups was conducted in Oman. A total of 1716 students (n=886/control, n= 830/education), aged 15-17 years, at 10th and 11th grade from 12 governmental schools 3 in governorates from 20-February-2022 to 12-May-2022. Basic demographic data were collected, and the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) was used as the primary outcome. Data were collected at baseline (T0) and 4 weeks after (T1). The intervention group received an education program about cancer's cause and its signs and symptoms. In contrast, the control group did not receive any education related to this issue during the study period. Non-parametric tests were used to compare the outcomes between groups. Results: At T0, the lamp was the most recognized cancer warning sign in control (55.0%) and intervention (55.2%) groups. However, there were no significant changes at T1 for all signs in the control group. In contrast, all sign outcomes were improved significantly (p<0.001) in the intervention group, the highest response was unexplained pain (93.3%). Smoking was the most recognized risk factor in both groups: (82.8% for control; 84.1% for intervention) at T0. However, there was no significant change in T1 for the control group, but there was for the intervention group (p<0.001), the highest identification was smoking cigarettes (96.5%). Too scared was the largest barrier to seeking medical help by students in the control group at T0 (63.0%) and T1 (62.8%). However, there were no significant changes in all barriers in this group. Otherwise, being too embarrassed (60.2%) was the largest barrier to seeking medical help for students in the intervention group at T0 and too scared (58.6%) at T1. Although there were reductions in all barriers, significant differences were found in six of ten only (p<0.001). Conclusion: The intervention was effective in improving students' awareness of cancer symptoms, warning signs (p<0.001), and risk factors (p<0.001 reduced the most addressed barriers to seeking medical help (p<0.001) in comparison to the control group. The Ministry of Education in Oman could integrate awareness of cancer within the curriculum, and more interventions are needed on the sociological part to overcome the barriers that interfere with seeking medical help.

Keywords: adolescents, awareness, cancer, education, intervention, student

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Authors: Chunhua Liao, Jinfei Wang, Bo Shan, Yang Song, Yongjun He, Taifeng Dong

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Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Canada. Forecasting of within-field variability of yield in winter wheat at the early stages is essential for precision farming. However, the crop yield modelling based on high spatial resolution satellite data is generally affected by the lack of continuous satellite observations, resulting in reducing the generalization ability of the models and increasing the difficulty of crop yield forecasting at the early stages. In this study, the correlations between Sentinel-2 data (vegetation indices and reflectance) and yield data collected by combine harvester were investigated and a generalized multivariate linear regression (MLR) model was built and tested with data acquired in different years. It was found that the four-band reflectance (blue, green, red, near-infrared) performed better than their vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, WDRVI and OSAVI) in wheat yield prediction. The optimum phenological stage for wheat yield prediction with highest accuracy was at the growing stages from the end of the flowering to the beginning of the filling stage. The best MLR model was therefore built to predict wheat yield before harvest using Sentinel-2 data acquired at the end of the flowering stage. Further, to improve the ability of the yield prediction at the early stages, three simple unsupervised domain adaptation (DA) methods were adopted to transform the reflectance data at the early stages to the optimum phenological stage. The winter wheat yield prediction using multiple vegetation indices showed higher accuracy than using single vegetation index. The optimum stage for winter wheat yield forecasting varied with different fields when using vegetation indices, while it was consistent when using multispectral reflectance and the optimum stage for winter wheat yield prediction was at the end of flowering stage. The average testing RMSE of the MLR model at the end of the flowering stage was 604.48 kg/ha. Near the booting stage, the average testing RMSE of yield prediction using the best MLR was reduced to 799.18 kg/ha when applying the mean matching domain adaptation approach to transform the data to the target domain (at the end of the flowering) compared to that using the original data based on the models developed at the booting stage directly (“MLR at the early stage”) (RMSE =1140.64 kg/ha). This study demonstrated that the simple mean matching (MM) performed better than other DA methods and it was found that “DA then MLR at the optimum stage” performed better than “MLR directly at the early stages” for winter wheat yield forecasting at the early stages. The results indicated that the DA had a great potential in near real-time crop yield forecasting at the early stages. This study indicated that the simple domain adaptation methods had a great potential in crop yield prediction at the early stages using remote sensing data.

Keywords: wheat yield prediction, domain adaptation, Sentinel-2, within-field scale

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Authors: M. Demir, A. Demir

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The aim of this study is to examine the family sense of coherence of early childhood education students. The Family Sense of Coherence Inventory has applied to 233 (108 girls and 125 boys) early childhood education students in Turkey. At the stage of data collection, with the aim of determining the family sense of coherence of early childhood education students, Family Sense of Coherence Inventory which was developed by Çeçen (2007) was used. In the process of the analysis of data, independent samples t-test, and one-way ANOVA were used. According to the results of the study, there were significant differences between some demographic variables in terms of the family sense of coherence.

Keywords: family sense of coherence, early childhood education students

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Authors: Evelyn Fabian

Abstract:

The focus of this discussion centres on the emerging issues in Early Childhood Care and development in Nigeria. Early childhood care is the bedrock of Nigeria’s educational system. However, there are critical issues that had not been addressed and it is frustrating the entire educational process. Thus, this paper will show the inter-connectedness between these issues such as poor funding, trained skillful teachers that would supervise the learning process of the kids, unconducive learning environment and lack of relevant facilities. For a clear grasp of these issues, the researcher visited 36 early childhood centres distributed across the 36 spates of Nigeria. The findings which were expressed in simple percentages revealed a near total absence or government neglect of these critical areas. The findings equally showed a misplaced priority in the government allocation of funds to early child care education and development. The study concludes that this mismatch in the training of these categories of pupils, government should expedite action in addressing these emerging issues in early childhood care and development in Nigeria.

Keywords: early childhood, ECCE, education, emerging issues

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Authors: Gregory Sullivan

Abstract:

The evolution of global warming has escalated the number and complexity of forest fires around the world. As an example, the United States and Brazil combined generated more than 30,000 forest fires last year. The impact to our environment, structures and individuals is incalculable. The world has learned to try to take this in stride, trying multiple ways to contain fires. Some countries are trying to use cameras in limited areas. There are discussions of using hundreds of low earth orbit satellites and linking them together, and, interfacing them through ground networks. These are all truly noble attempts to defeat the forest fire phenomenon. But there is a better, simpler answer. A bigger piece of the solutions puzzle is to see the fires while they are small, soon after initiation. The approach is to see the fires while they are very small and report their location (latitude and longitude) to local first responders. This is done by placing a sensor at geostationary orbit (GEO: 26,000 miles above the earth). By placing this small satellite in GEO, we can “stare” at the earth, and sense temperature changes. We do not “see” fires, but “measure” temperature changes. This has already been demonstrated on an experimental scale. Fires were seen at close to initiation, and info forwarded to first responders. it were the first to identify the fires 7 out of 8 times. The goal is to have a small independent satellite at GEO orbit focused only on forest fire initiation. Thus, with one small satellite, focused only on forest fire initiation, we hope to greatly decrease the impact to persons, property and the environment.

Keywords: space detection, wildfire early warning, demonstration wildfire detection and action from space, space detection to first responders

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