Search results for: coupled model inter-comparison project
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21100

Search results for: coupled model inter-comparison project

20920 A Correlation Between Perceived Usage of Project Management Methodologies and Project Success in Horizon 2020 Projects

Authors: Aurelio Palacardo, Giulio Mangano, Alberto De Marco

Abstract:

Nowadays, the global economic framework is extremely competitive, and it consequently requires an efficient deployment of the resources provided by EU. In this context, Project management practices are intended to be one of the levers for increasing such an efficiency. The objective of this work is to explore the usage of Project Management methodologies and good practices in the European-wide research program “Horizon2020” and establish whether their maturity might impact the project's success. This allows to identify strengths in terms of application of PM methodologies and good practices and, in turn, to provide feedback and opportunities for improvements to be implemented in future programs. In order to achieve this objective, the present research makes use of a survey-based data retrieval and correlation analysis to investigate the level of perceived PM maturity in H2020 projects and the correlation of maturity with project success. The results show the Project Managers involved in H2020 to hold a high level of PM maturity, confirming PM standards, which are imposed by the EU commission as a binding process, are effectively enforced.

Keywords: project management, project management maturity, maturity models, project success

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20919 A Study of Factors Affecting the Elapsed Time of Housing Renewal Project Implementation in Seoul

Authors: In Su Na, Gunwon Lee, Seiyong Kim

Abstract:

This study analyzed the effect of area variables and economic variables on the length of each period of the project in order to analyze the effect of agreement rate on project implementation in housing renewal projects. In conclusion, as can be seen from these results, a low agreement rate may not translate into project promotion, and a higher agreement rate may not translate into project delay. The expectation of the policy is that the lower the agreement rate, the more projects would be promoted, but that is not the actual effect. From a policy consistency viewpoint, changing the agreement rate frequently, depending on the decision of the public, is not reasonable. The policy of using agreement rate as a necessary condition for project implementation should be reconsidered.

Keywords: Area and Economic Variables, Elapsed time, Housing Renewal Project

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20918 Optimisation Model for Maximising Social Sustainability in Construction Scheduling

Authors: Laura Florez

Abstract:

The construction industry is labour intensive, and the behaviour and management of workers have a direct impact on the performance of construction projects. One of the issues it currently faces is how to recruit and maintain its workers. Construction is known as an industry where workers face the problem of short employment durations, frequent layoffs, and periods of unemployment between jobs. These challenges not only creates pressures on the workers but also project managers have to constantly train new workers, face skills shortage, and uncertainty on the quality of the workers it will attract. To consider worker’s needs and project managers expectations, one practice that can be implemented is to schedule construction projects to maintain a stable workforce. This paper proposes a mixed integer programming (MIP) model to schedule projects with the objective of maximising social sustainability of construction projects, that is, maximise labour stability. Aside from the social objective, the model accounts for equipment and financial resources required by the projects during the construction phase. To illustrate how the solution strategy works, a construction programme comprised of ten projects is considered. The projects are scheduled to maximise labour stability while simultaneously minimising time and minimising cost. The tradeoff between the values in terms of time, cost, and labour stability allows project managers to consider their preferences and identify which solution best suits their needs. Additionally, the model determines the optimal starting times for each of the projects, working patterns for the workers, and labour costs. This model shows that construction projects can be scheduled to not only benefit the project manager, but also benefit current workers and help attract new workers to the industry. Due to its practicality, it can be a valuable tool to support decision making and assist construction stakeholders when developing schedules that include social sustainability factors.

Keywords: labour stability, mixed-integer programming (MIP), scheduling, workforce management

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20917 A Variational Reformulation for the Thermomechanically Coupled Behavior of Shape Memory Alloys

Authors: Elisa Boatti, Ulisse Stefanelli, Alessandro Reali, Ferdinando Auricchio

Abstract:

Thanks to their unusual properties, shape memory alloys (SMAs) are good candidates for advanced applications in a wide range of engineering fields, such as automotive, robotics, civil, biomedical, aerospace. In the last decades, the ever-growing interest for such materials has boosted several research studies aimed at modeling their complex nonlinear behavior in an effective and robust way. Since the constitutive response of SMAs is strongly thermomechanically coupled, the investigation of the non-isothermal evolution of the material must be taken into consideration. The present study considers an existing three-dimensional phenomenological model for SMAs, able to reproduce the main SMA properties while maintaining a simple user-friendly structure, and proposes a variational reformulation of the full non-isothermal version of the model. While the considered model has been thoroughly assessed in an isothermal setting, the proposed formulation allows to take into account the full nonisothermal problem. In particular, the reformulation is inspired to the GENERIC (General Equations for Non-Equilibrium Reversible-Irreversible Coupling) formalism, and is based on a generalized gradient flow of the total entropy, related to thermal and mechanical variables. Such phrasing of the model is new and allows for a discussion of the model from both a theoretical and a numerical point of view. Moreover, it directly implies the dissipativity of the flow. A semi-implicit time-discrete scheme is also presented for the fully coupled thermomechanical system, and is proven unconditionally stable and convergent. The correspondent algorithm is then implemented, under a space-homogeneous temperature field assumption, and tested under different conditions. The core of the algorithm is composed of a mechanical subproblem and a thermal subproblem. The iterative scheme is solved by a generalized Newton method. Numerous uniaxial and biaxial tests are reported to assess the performance of the model and algorithm, including variable imposed strain, strain rate, heat exchange properties, and external temperature. In particular, the heat exchange with the environment is the only source of rate-dependency in the model. The reported curves clearly display the interdependence between phase transformation strain and material temperature. The full thermomechanical coupling allows to reproduce the exothermic and endothermic effects during respectively forward and backward phase transformation. The numerical tests have thus demonstrated that the model can appropriately reproduce the coupled SMA behavior in different loading conditions and rates. Moreover, the algorithm has proved effective and robust. Further developments are being considered, such as the extension of the formulation to the finite-strain setting and the study of the boundary value problem.

Keywords: generalized gradient flow, GENERIC formalism, shape memory alloys, thermomechanical coupling

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20916 Escalation of Commitment and Turnover in Top Management Teams

Authors: Dmitriy V. Chulkov

Abstract:

Escalation of commitment is defined as continuation of a project after receiving negative information about it. While literature in management and psychology identified various factors contributing to escalation behavior, this phenomenon has received little analysis in economics, potentially due to the apparent irrationality of escalation. In this study, we present an economic model of escalation with asymmetric information in a principal-agent setup where the agents are responsible for a project selection decision and discover the outcome of the project before the principal. Our theoretical model complements the existing literature on several accounts. First, we link the incentive to escalate commitment to a project with the turnover decision by the manager. When a manager learns the outcome of the project and stops it that reveals that a mistake was made. There is an incentive to continue failing projects and avoid admitting the mistake. This incentive is enhanced when the agent may voluntarily resign from the firm before the outcome of the failing project is revealed, and thus not bear the full extent of reputation damage due to project failure. As long as some successful managers leave the firm for extraneous reasons, outside firms find it difficult to link failing projects with certainty to managers that left a firm. Second, we demonstrate that non-CEO managers have reputation concerns separate from those of the CEO, and thus may escalate commitment to projects they oversee, when such escalation can attenuate damage to reputation from impending project failure. Such incentive for escalation will be present for non-CEO managers if the CEO delegates responsibility for a project to a non-CEO executive. If reputation matters for promotion to the CEO, the incentive for a rising executive to escalate in order to protect reputation is distinct from that of a CEO. Third, our theoretical model is supported by empirical analysis of changes in the firm’s operations measured by the presence of discontinued operations at the time of turnover among the top four members of the top management team. Discontinued operations are indicative of termination of failing projects at a firm. The empirical results demonstrate that in a large dataset of over three thousand publicly traded U.S. firms for a period from 1993 to 2014 turnover by top executives significantly increases the likelihood that the firm discontinues operations. Furthermore, the type of turnover matters as this effect is strongest when at least one non-CEO member of the top management team leaves the firm and when the CEO departure is due to a voluntary resignation and not to a retirement or illness. Empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model and suggest that escalation of commitment is primarily observed in decisions by non-CEO members of the top management team.

Keywords: discontinued operations, escalation of commitment, executive turnover, top management teams

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20915 Performance Evaluation of Construction Projects by Earned Value Management Method, Using Primavera P6 – A Case Study in Istanbul, Turkey

Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Osman Hurol Turkakin, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

Abstract:

Most of the construction projects are exposed to time and cost overruns due to various factors and this is a major problem. As a solution to this, the Earned Value Management (EVM) method is considered. EVM is a powerful and well-known method used in monitoring and controlling the project. EVM is a technique that project managers use to track the performance of their project against project baselines. EVM gives an early indication that either project is delayed or not, and the project is either over budget or under budget at any particular day by tracking it. Thus, it helps to improve the management control system of a construction project, to detect and control the problems in potential risk areas and to suggest the importance and purpose of monitoring the construction work. This paper explains the main parameters of the EVM system involved in the calculation of time and cost for construction projects. In this study, the project management software Primavera P6 is used to deals with the project monitoring process of a seven-storeyed (G+6) faculty building whose construction is in progress at Istanbul, Turkey. A comparison between the planned progress of construction activities and actual progress is performed, and the analysis results are interpreted. This case study justifies the benefits of using EVM for project cash flow analysis and forecasting.

Keywords: earned value management (EVM), construction cost management, construction planning, primavera P6, project management, project scheduling

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20914 [Keynote Talk]: The Challenges and Solutions for Developing Mobile Apps in a Small University

Authors: Greg Turner, Bin Lu, Cheer-Sun Yang

Abstract:

As computing technology advances, smartphone applications can assist in student learning in a pervasive way. For example, the idea of using a mobile apps for the PA Common Trees, Pests, Pathogens, in the field as a reference tool allows middle school students to learn about trees and associated pests/pathogens without bringing a textbook. In the past, some researches study the mobile software Mobile Application Software Development Life Cycle (MADLC) including traditional models such as the waterfall model, or more recent Agile Methods. Others study the issues related to the software development process. Very little research is on the development of three heterogenous mobile systems simultaneously in a small university where the availability of developers is an issue. In this paper, we propose to use a hybride model of Waterfall Model and the Agile Model, known as the Relay Race Methodology (RRM) in practice, to reflect the concept of racing and relaying for scheduling. Based on the development project, we observe that the modeling of the transition between any two phases is manifested naturally. Thus, we claim that the RRM model can provide a de fecto rather than a de jure basis for the core concept in the MADLC. In this paper, the background of the project is introduced first. Then, the challenges are pointed out followed by our solutions. Finally, the experiences learned and the future work are presented.

Keywords: agile methods, mobile apps, software process model, waterfall model

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20913 Relationship among Teams' Information Processing Capacity and Performance in Information System Projects: The Effects of Uncertainty and Equivocality

Authors: Ouafa Sakka, Henri Barki, Louise Cote

Abstract:

Uncertainty and equivocality are defined in the information processing literature as two task characteristics that require different information processing responses from managers. As uncertainty often stems from a lack of information, addressing it is thought to require the collection of additional data. On the other hand, as equivocality stems from ambiguity and a lack of understanding of the task at hand, addressing it is thought to require rich communication between those involved. Past research has provided weak to moderate empirical support to these hypotheses. The present study contributes to this literature by defining uncertainty and equivocality at the project level and investigating their moderating effects on the association between several project information processing constructs and project performance. The information processing constructs considered are the amount of information collected by the project team, and the richness and frequency of formal communications among the team members to discuss the project’s follow-up reports. Data on 93 information system development (ISD) project managers was collected in a questionnaire survey and analyzed it via the Fisher Test for correlation differences. The results indicate that the highest project performance levels were observed in projects characterized by high uncertainty and low equivocality in which project managers were provided with detailed and updated information on project costs and schedules. In addition, our findings show that information about user needs and technical aspects of the project is less useful to managing projects where uncertainty and equivocality are high. Further, while the strongest positive effect of interactive use of follow-up reports on performance occurred in projects where both uncertainty and equivocality levels were high, its weakest effect occurred when both of these were low.

Keywords: uncertainty, equivocality, information processing model, management control systems, project control, interactive use, diagnostic use, information system development

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20912 The Effect of Critical Activity on Critical Path and Project Duration in Precedence Diagram Method

Authors: J. Nisar, S. Halim

Abstract:

The additional relationships i.e., start-to-start, finish-to-finish, and start-to-finish, between activity in Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) provides a more flexible schedule than traditional Critical Path Method (CPM). But, changing the duration of critical activities in the PDM network will have an anomalous effect on the critical path and the project completion date. In this study, we classified the critical activities in two groups i.e., 1. activity on single critical path and 2. activity on multi-critical paths, and six classes i.e., normal, reverse, neutral, perverse, decrease-reverse and increase-normal, based on their effects on project duration in PDM. Furthermore, we determined the maximum float of time by which the duration each type of critical activities can be changed without effecting the project duration. This study would help the project manager to clearly understand the behavior of each critical activity on critical path, and he/she would be able to change the project duration by shortening or lengthening activities based on project budget and project deadline.

Keywords: construction management, critical path method, project scheduling network, precedence diagram method

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20911 Project Management Framework and Influencing Factors

Authors: Mehrnoosh Askarizadeh

Abstract:

The increasing variations of the business world correspond with a high diversity of theoretical perspectives used in project management research. This diversity is reflected by a variety of influencing factors, which have been the subject of empirical studies. This article aims to systemize the different streams of research on the basis of a literature review and at developing a research framework influencing factors. We will identify fundamental elements of a project management theory. The framework consists of three dimensions: design, context, and goal. Its purpose is to support the combination of different perspectives and the development of strategies for further research.

Keywords: project, goal, project management, influencing factors

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20910 Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model in Agile Construction Environment

Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

Abstract:

The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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20909 Historical Geotechnical Study and Evaluation of Project Progress for the Tafila City Center Development Project

Authors: Mohmd Sarireh

Abstract:

The geotechnical study can be employed successfully to assess and follow the expected development or delay in the project construction. The development project of city center or downtown was taken as a case study for the investigation of the project conditions that might support progress or cause delay. The project was proposed to build 7447 m2 by reinforced concrete mainly to serve and support the services provided to people in Tafila. The project construction had faced challenges and obstacles such as soil collapse because of excavation of the weak soil that found in the project site. In addition, the topography of the project area showed a high slope from South-West to North. The slope through the project footprint reached to 83.3% which is considered very high slope. One year and a half proposed to finish the project construction since the 1st of March 2013 and it was planned to be finished by the 31th of August 2014, but the project needs more than one year and a half as extension according to the consultant engineer. The collecting of data was conducted through the interviews with the engineers and officials, and by analyzing the soil reports and samples taken during design and excavation. The major findings came out to weak and fractured soil and construction waste that were found at project site. Also, soil was considered very fine according to the plasticity index (PI) values, in addition to the high depths required for foundation that contribute to the collapse of soil and the increase of project cost. The current project aims to present how the unseen conditions can delay the project construction and increase the cost of the project that rises to JD8.305 Million.

Keywords: geotechnical, management, progress, risk, soil unseen conditions management

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20908 Quality Management in Construction Project

Authors: Harsh Panchal, Saurabh Amrutkar

Abstract:

Quality management is an essential part of any project that has directly related to the performance of a project. Quality management is depended on multiple factors at different stages in a project, right from time management to construction logistics. A project is a mixture of various components that include iternary management, health and safety, crew productivity, and many more. From the survey conducted, we came to the conclusion that advancement in technology and indigenous approach to any project will result in maximum quality standards and better project performance. In this paper, we discuss various components of the factors above that lead to compromise the quality of a project and how it can be controlled in order to achieve maximum quality assurance using quality planning and total quality management. The paper also focuses on limitations and problems faced in each factor responsible for quality management and to tackle them using techniques and processes based on activities and identifying the sequence, approaching critical path, and duration. The project management concept that deals with the sequence of scope cost time give us an overview regarding the ongoing quality management, in a nutshell, giving us hints to regulate the current procedure for maximum achievable quality. It also deals with the problems faced by engineers that make the mundane work process slow, reducing the quality outcome drastically.

Keywords: management, performance, project, quality

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20907 The Urban Project and the Urban Improvement to the Test of the Participation, Case: Project of Modernization of Constantine

Authors: Mouhoubi Nedjima, Sassi Boudemagh Souad

Abstract:

In the framework of the modernization of the city of Constantine, and in order to restore its status as a regional metropolis and introduce it into the network of cities international metropolises, a major urban project was launched: project of modernization and of metropolitanization of the city of Constantine (PMMC). Our research project focuses on the management of the project for the modernization of the city of Constantine (PMMC) focusing on the management of some aspects of the urban project whose participation, with the objective assessment of the managerial approach business. Among the cases revealing taken into account in our research work on the question of participation of actors and their organizations, the operation relating to "the urban improvement in the city of the Brothers FERRAD in the district of Zouaghi". This operation with the objective of improving the living conditions of citizens has faced several challenges and obstacles that have been in major part the factors of its failure. Through this study, we examine the management process and the mode of organization of the actors of the project as well as the level of participation of the citizen to finally propose managerial solutions to conflict situations observed.

Keywords: the urban project, the urban improvement, participation, Constantine

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20906 Experimental and Numerical Analyses of Tehran Research Reactor

Authors: A. Lashkari, H. Khalafi, H. Khazeminejad, S. Khakshourniya

Abstract:

In this paper, a numerical model is presented. The model is used to analyze a steady state thermo-hydraulic and reactivity insertion transient in TRR reference cores respectively. The model predictions are compared with the experiments and PARET code results. The model uses the piecewise constant and lumped parameter methods for the coupled point kinetics and thermal-hydraulics modules respectively. The advantages of the piecewise constant method are simplicity, efficiency and accuracy. A main criterion on the applicability range of this model is that the exit coolant temperature remains below the saturation temperature, i.e. no bulk boiling occurs in the core. The calculation values of power and coolant temperature, in steady state and positive reactivity insertion scenario, are in good agreement with the experiment values. However, the model is a useful tool for the transient analysis of most research reactor encountered in practice. The main objective of this work is using simple calculation methods and benchmarking them with experimental data. This model can be used for training proposes.

Keywords: thermal-hydraulic, research reactor, reactivity insertion, numerical modeling

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20905 Heat Transfer Characteristics of Film Condensation

Authors: M. Mosaad, J. H. Almutairi, A. S. Almutairi

Abstract:

In this paper, saturated-vapour film condensation on a vertical wall with the backside cooled by forced convection is analyzed as a conjugate problem. In the analysis, the temperature and heat flux at the wall sides are assumed unknown and determined from the solution. The model is presented in a dimensionless form to take a broad view of the solution. The dimensionless variables controlling this coupled heat transfer process are discovered from the analysis. These variables explain the relative impact of the interactive heat transfer mechanisms of forced convection and film condensation. The study shows that the conjugate treatment of film condensation process yields results different from that predicted by a non-conjugate Nusselt-type solution, wherein the effect of the cooling fluid is neglected.

Keywords: film condensation, forced convection, coupled heat transfer, analytical modelling

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20904 Conduction Accompanied With Transient Radiative Heat Transfer Using Finite Volume Method

Authors: A. Ashok, K.Satapathy, B. Prerana Nashine

Abstract:

The objective of this research work is to investigate for one dimensional transient radiative transfer equations with conduction using finite volume method. Within the infrastructure of finite-volume, we obtain the conservative discretization of the terms in order to preserve the overall conservative property of finitevolume schemes. Coupling of conductive and radiative equation resulting in fluxes is governed by the magnitude of emissivity, extinction coefficient, and temperature of the medium as well as geometry of the problem. The problem under consideration has been solved, for a slab dominating radiation coupled with transient conduction based on finite volume method. The boundary conditions are also chosen so as to give a good model of the discretized form of radiation transfer equation. The important feature of the present method is flexibility in specifying the control angles in the FVM, while keeping the simplicity in the solution procedure. Effects of various model parameters are examined on the distributions of temperature, radiative and conductive heat fluxes and incident radiation energy etc. The finite volume method is considered to effectively evaluate the propagation of radiation intensity through a participating medium.

Keywords: participating media, finite volume method, radiation coupled with conduction, transient radiative heat transfer

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20903 Applying the Underwriting Technique to Analyze and Mitigate the Credit Risks in Construction Project Management

Authors: Hai Chien Pham, Thi Phuong Anh Vo, Chansik Park

Abstract:

Risks management in construction projects is important to ensure the positive feasibility of the projects in which financial risks are most concerned while construction projects always run on a credit basis. Credit risks, therefore, require unique and technical tools to be well managed. Underwriting technique in credit risks, in its most basic sense, refers to the process of evaluating the risks and the potential exposure of losses. Risks analysis and underwriting are applied as a must in banks and financial institutions who are supporters for constructions projects when required. Recently, construction organizations, especially contractors, have recognized the significant increasing of credit risks which caused negative impacts to project performance and profit of construction firms. Despite the successful application of underwriting in banks and financial institutions for many years, there are few contractors who are applying this technique to analyze and mitigate the credit risks of their potential owners before signing contracts with them for delivering their performed services. Thus, contractors have taken credit risks during project implementation which might be not materialized due to the bankruptcy and/or protracted default made by their owners. With this regard, this study proposes a model using the underwriting technique for contractors to analyze and assess credit risks of their owners before making final decisions for the potential construction contracts. Contractor’s underwriters are able to analyze and evaluate the subjects such as owner, country, sector, payment terms, financial figures and their related concerns of the credit limit requests in details based on reliable information sources, and then input into the proposed model to have the Overall Assessment Score (OAS). The OAS is as a benchmark for the decision makers to grant the proper limits for the project. The proposed underwriting model is validated by 30 subjects in Asia Pacific region within 5 years to achieve their OAS, and then compare output OAS with their own practical performance in order to evaluate the potential of underwriting model for analyzing and assessing credit risks. The results revealed that the underwriting would be a powerful method to assist contractors in making precise decisions. The contribution of this research is to allow the contractors firstly to develop their own credit risk management model for proactively preventing the credit risks of construction projects and continuously improve and enhance the performance of this function during project implementation.

Keywords: underwriting technique, credit risk, risk management, construction project

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20902 Application of Agile Project Management to Construction Projects: Case Study

Authors: Ran Etgar, Sarit Freund

Abstract:

Agile project management (APM) has been developed originally for software development project. Construction projects seemed to be more apt to traditional water-fall approach than to APM. However, Construction project suffers from similar problems that necessitated the invention of APM, mainly the need to break down the project structure to small increments, thus minimizing the needed managerial planning and design. Since the classical structure of APM is not applicable the way it is to construction project, a modified version of APM was devised. This method, nicknamed 'The anchor method', exploits the fundamentals of APM (i.e., iterations, or sprints of short time frames or timeboxes, cross-functional teams, risk reduction and adaptation to changes) and adjust them to the construction world. The projects had to be structured appropriately to proactively and quickly adapt to change. The method aims to encompass human behavior and lean towards adaptivity rather than predictability. To enable smooth application of the method, a special project management software was developed, so as to provide solid administrational help and accurate data. The method is tested on a bunch of construction projects and some key performance indicators (KPIs) are collected. According to preliminary results the method is indeed very advantageous and with proper assimilation can radically change the construction project management paradigm.

Keywords: agile project management, construction, information systems, project management

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20901 A Coupled System of Caputo-Type Katugampola Fractional Differential Equations with Integral Boundary Conditions

Authors: Yacine Arioua

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the existence and uniqueness of solutions for a coupled system of nonlinear Caputo-type Katugampola fractional differential equations with integral boundary conditions. Based upon a contraction mapping principle, Schauders fixed point theorems, some new existence and uniqueness results of solutions for the given problems are obtained. For application, some examples are given to illustrate the usefulness of our main results.

Keywords: fractional differential equations, coupled system, Caputo-Katugampola derivative, fixed point theorems, existence, uniqueness

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20900 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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20899 Sensitivity Parameter Analysis of Negative Moment Dynamic Load Allowance of Continuous T-Girder Bridge

Authors: Fan Yang, Ye-Lu Wang, Yang Zhao

Abstract:

The dynamic load allowance, as an application result of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration theory, is an important parameter for bridge design and evaluation. Based on the coupled vehicle-bridge vibration theory, the current work establishes a full girder model of a dynamic load allowance, selects a planar five-degree-of-freedom three-axis vehicle model, solves the coupled vehicle-bridge dynamic response using the APDL language in the spatial finite element program ANSYS, selects the pivot point 2 sections as the representative of the negative moment section, and analyzes the effects of parameters such as travel speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance through orthogonal tests. The influence of parameters such as vehicle speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number, and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance is analyzed by orthogonal tests, and the influence law of each influencing parameter is summarized. It is found that the effects of vehicle frequency, unevenness, and speed on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are significant, among which vehicle frequency has the greatest effect on the negative moment dynamic load allowance; the effects of span number and span diameter on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are relatively small; the effects of forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are negligible.

Keywords: continuous T-girder bridge, dynamic load allowance, sensitivity analysis, vehicle-bridge coupling

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20898 Numerical Simulation of Lightning Strike Direct Effects on Aircraft Skin Composite Laminate

Authors: Muhammad Khalil, Nader Abuelfoutouh, Gasser Abdelal, Adrian Murphy

Abstract:

Nowadays, the direct effects of lightning to aircrafts are of great importance because of the massive use of composite materials. In comparison with metallic materials, composites present several weaknesses for lightning strike direct effects. Especially, their low electrical and thermal conductivities lead to severe lightning strike damage. The lightning strike direct effects are burning, heating, magnetic force, sparking and arcing. As the problem is complex, we investigated it gradually. A magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model is developed to simulate the lightning strikes in order to estimate the damages on the composite materials. Then, a coupled thermal-electrical finite element analysis is used to study the interaction between the lightning arc and the composite laminate and to investigate the material degradation.

Keywords: composite structures, lightning multiphysics, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), coupled thermal-electrical analysis, thermal plasmas.

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20897 Conceptualising Project Complexity in Ghana’s Construction Industry: A Qualitative Study

Authors: Kwasi Dartey-Baah, Mias De Klerk

Abstract:

Project complexity has been cited as one of the essential areas of project management. It can be observed from environmental, social, technological, and organisational viewpoints, and its handling is critical to project success. Conceptualised in varied industries, this paper seeks to ascertain the meaning and understanding of project complexity within the Ghanaian construction industry based on the three dimensions of complexities (faith, fact, and interaction) using experts' opinions. Taking the form of a focus group discussion, the paper sought to gain an in-depth understanding of project complexity issues in Ghana’s construction industry. The method use obtained data from experts (a purposely selected group) comprising project leaders and project management academics. The findings indicated that the experts broadly agreed with the complexity items but offered varied reasons for their agreement. In the composite assessment of the complexity dimensions of (faith, fact, and interaction), it emerged that there was some agreement with the complexity dimensions of fact and interaction within Ghana’s construction industry. On the other hand, with the dimension for complexity by faith, it was noted that the experts in Ghana’s construction construed complexity by faith, not as the absence of evidence but the evidence that hinges on at least a member of the project team. It is expected that other researches on project complexity will focus on other industries to enhance the knowledge of the same within the field of project management.

Keywords: project complexity, complexity by faith, complexity by fact, complexity by interaction, construction industry, Ghana

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20896 Time-Domain Simulations of the Coupled Dynamics of Surface Riding Wave Energy Converter

Authors: Chungkuk Jin, Moo-Hyun Kim, HeonYong Kang

Abstract:

A surface riding (SR) wave energy converter (WEC) is designed and its feasibility and performance are numerically simulated by the author-developed floater-mooring-magnet-electromagnetics fully-coupled dynamic analysis computer program. The biggest advantage of the SR-WEC is that the performance is equally effective even in low sea states and its structural robustness is greatly improved by simply riding along the wave surface compared to other existing WECs. By the numerical simulations and actuator testing, it is clearly demonstrated that the concept works and through the optimization process, its efficiency can be improved.

Keywords: computer simulation, electromagnetics fully-coupled dynamics, floater-mooring-magnet, optimization, performance evaluation, surface riding, WEC

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20895 Numerical Simulations of Frost Heave Using COMSOL Multiphysics Software in Unsaturated Freezing Soils

Authors: Sara Soltanpour, Adolfo Foriero

Abstract:

Frost heave is arguably the most problematic adverse phenomenon in cold region areas. Frost heave is a complex process that depends on heat and water transfer. These coupled physical fields generate considerable heave stresses as well as deformations. In the present study, a coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) model using COMSOL Multiphysics in frozen unsaturated soils, such as fine sand, is investigated. Particular attention to the frost heave and temperature distribution, as well as the water migrating during soil freezing, is assessed. The results obtained from the numerical simulations are consistent with the results measured in the full-scale tests conducted by Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL).

Keywords: frost heave, numerical simulations, COMSOL software, unsaturated freezing soil

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20894 Knowledge Discovery from Production Databases for Hierarchical Process Control

Authors: Pavol Tanuska, Pavel Vazan, Michal Kebisek, Dominika Jurovata

Abstract:

The paper gives the results of the project that was oriented on the usage of knowledge discoveries from production systems for needs of the hierarchical process control. One of the main project goals was the proposal of knowledge discovery model for process control. Specifics data mining methods and techniques was used for defined problems of the process control. The gained knowledge was used on the real production system, thus, the proposed solution has been verified. The paper documents how it is possible to apply new discovery knowledge to be used in the real hierarchical process control. There are specified the opportunities for application of the proposed knowledge discovery model for hierarchical process control.

Keywords: hierarchical process control, knowledge discovery from databases, neural network, process control

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20893 A Predictive Analytics Approach to Project Management: Reducing Project Failures in Web and Software Development Projects

Authors: Tazeen Fatima

Abstract:

Use of project management in web & software development projects is very significant. It has been observed that even with the application of effective project management, projects usually do not complete their lifecycle and fail. To minimize these failures, key performance indicators have been introduced in previous studies to counter project failures. However, there are always gaps and problems in the KPIs identified. Despite of incessant efforts at technical and managerial levels, projects still fail. There is no substantial approach to identify and avoid these failures in the very beginning of the project lifecycle. In this study, we aim to answer these research problems by analyzing the concept of predictive analytics which is a specialized technology and is very easy to use in this era of computation. Project organizations can use data gathering, compute power, and modern tools to render efficient Predictions. The research aims to identify such a predictive analytics approach. The core objective of the study was to reduce failures and introduce effective implementation of project management principles. Existing predictive analytics methodologies, tools and solution providers were also analyzed. Relevant data was gathered from projects and was analyzed via predictive techniques to make predictions well advance in time to render effective project management in web & software development industry.

Keywords: project management, predictive analytics, predictive analytics methodology, project failures

Procedia PDF Downloads 305
20892 Project Knowledge Harvesting: The Case of Improving Project Performance through Project Knowledge Sharing Framework

Authors: Eng Rima Al-Awadhi, Abdul Jaleel Tharayil

Abstract:

In a project-centric organization like KOC, managing the knowledge of the project is of critical importance to the success of the project and the organization. However, due to the very nature and complexity involved, each project engagement generates a lot of 'learnings' that need to be factored into while new projects are initiated and thus avoid repeating the same mistake. But, many a time these learnings are localized and remains as ‘tacit knowledge’ leading to scope re-work, schedule overrun, adjustment orders, concession requests and claims. While KOC follows an asset based organization structure, with a multi-cultural and multi-ethnic workforce and larger chunk of the work is carried out through complex, long term project engagement, diffusion of ‘learnings’ across assets while dealing with the natural entropy of the organization is of great significance. Considering the relatively higher number of mega projects, it's important that the issues raised during the project life cycle are centrally harvested, analyzed and the ‘learnings’ from these issues are shared, absorbed and are in-turn utilized to enhance and refine the existing process and practices, leading to improve the project performance. One of the many factors contributing to the successful completion of a project on time is the reduction in the number of variations or concessions triggered during the project life cycle. The project process integrated knowledge sharing framework discusses the knowledge harvesting methodology adopted, the challenges faced, learnings acquired and its impact on project performance. The framework facilitates the proactive identification of issues that may have an impact on the overall quality of the project and improve performance.

Keywords: knowledge harvesting, project integrated knowledge sharing, performance improvement, knowledge management, lessons learn

Procedia PDF Downloads 359
20891 Application of Simulation of Discrete Events in Resource Management of Massive Concreting

Authors: Mohammad Amin Hamedirad, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei

Abstract:

Project planning and control are one of the most critical issues in the management of construction projects. Traditional methods of project planning and control, such as the critical path method or Gantt chart, are not widely used for planning projects with discrete and repetitive activities, and one of the problems of project managers is planning the implementation process and optimal allocation of its resources. Massive concreting projects is also a project with discrete and repetitive activities. This study uses the concept of simulating discrete events to manage resources, which includes finding the optimal number of resources considering various limitations such as limitations of machinery, equipment, human resources and even technical, time and implementation limitations using analysis of resource consumption rate, project completion time and critical points analysis of the implementation process. For this purpose, the concept of discrete-event simulation has been used to model different stages of implementation. After reviewing the various scenarios, the optimal number of allocations for each resource is finally determined to reach the maximum utilization rate and also to reduce the project completion time or reduce its cost according to the existing constraints. The results showed that with the optimal allocation of resources, the project completion time could be reduced by 90%, and the resulting costs can be reduced by up to 49%. Thus, allocating the optimal number of project resources using this method will reduce its time and cost.

Keywords: simulation, massive concreting, discrete event simulation, resource management

Procedia PDF Downloads 102