Search results for: causality analysis

Authors: Assad Maalouf, Lunjin Lu, James Lynott

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We present a taint analysis that can automatically detect when string operations result in a string that is free of taints, where all the tainted patterns have been removed. This is an improvement on the conservative behavior of previous taint analyzers, where a string operation on a tainted string always leads to a tainted string unless the operation is manually marked as a sanitizer. The taint analysis is built on top of a string analysis that uses finite state automata to approximate the sets of values that string variables can take during the execution of a program. The proposed approach has been implemented as an extension of FlowDroid and experimental results show that the resulting taint analyzer is much more precise than the original FlowDroid.

Keywords: android, static analysis, string analysis, taint analysis

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Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

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The part of “future direction” in the findings of meta-analysis could provide the great direction to conduct the future studies. This study, “The Documentary Analysis of Meta-Analysis Research in Violence of Media” would conclude “future directions” out of 10 meta-analysis papers. The purposes of this research are to find an appropriate research design or an appropriate methodology for the future research related to the topic, “violence of media”. Further research needs to explore by longitudinal and experimental design, and also needs to have a careful consideration about age effects, time spent effects, enjoyment effects, and ordinary lifestyle of each media consumer.

Keywords: aggressive, future direction, meta-analysis, media, violence

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Authors: Nazri Kama, Sufyan Basri, Roslina Ibrahim

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It is important to manage the changes in the software to meet the evolving needs of the customer. Accepting too many changes causes delay in the completion and it incurs additional cost. One type of information that helps to make the decision is through change impact analysis. Current impact analysis approaches assume that all classes in the class artifact are completely developed and the class artifact is used as a source of analysis. However, these assumptions are impractical for impact analysis in the software development phase as some classes in the class artifact are still under development or partially developed that leads to inaccuracy. This paper presents a novel impact analysis approach to be used in the software development phase. The significant achievements of the approach are demonstrated through an extensive experimental validation using three case studies.

Keywords: software development, impact analysis, traceability, static analysis.

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Authors: T. Padma, Jayashree S. Pillai

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Random entities are an essential component in any cryptographic application. The suitability of a number theory based novel pseudorandom sequence called Pseudorandom Partial Quotient Sequence (PPQS) generated from the continued fraction expansion of irrational numbers, in cryptographic applications, is analyzed in this paper. An approach to build the algorithm around a hard mathematical problem has been considered. The PQ sequence is tested for randomness and its suitability as a cryptographic key by performing randomness analysis, key sensitivity and key space analysis, precision analysis and evaluating the correlation properties is established.

Keywords: pseudorandom sequences, key sensitivity, correlation, security analysis, randomness analysis, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Ho Yeon Park, Kyoung-Jae Kim

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The purpose of this study is to investigate whether friendship in social media can be an important factor in recommender system through social scientific analysis of friendship in popular social media such as Facebook and Twitter. For this purpose, this study analyzes data on friendship in real social media using component analysis and clique analysis among sub-group analysis in social network analysis. In this study, we propose an algorithm to reflect the results of sub-group analysis on the recommender system. The key to this algorithm is to ensure that recommendations from users in friendships are more likely to be reflected in recommendations from users. As a result of this study, outcomes of various subgroup analyzes were derived, and it was confirmed that the results were different from the results of the existing recommender system. Therefore, it is considered that the results of the subgroup analysis affect the recommendation performance of the system. Future research will attempt to generalize the results of the research through further analysis of various social data.

Keywords: sub-group analysis, social media, social network analysis, recommender systems

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Authors: Sannikumar Patel, Brian Nolan, Markus Hofmann, Philip Owende, Kunjan Patel

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Sentiment analysis and opinion mining have become emerging topics of research in recent years but most of the work is focused on data in the English language. A comprehensive research and analysis are essential which considers multiple languages, machine translation techniques, and different classifiers. This paper presents, a comparative analysis of different approaches for multilingual sentiment analysis. These approaches are divided into two parts: one using classification of text without language translation and second using the translation of testing data to a target language, such as English, before classification. The presented research and results are useful for understanding whether machine translation should be used for multilingual sentiment analysis or building language specific sentiment classification systems is a better approach. The effects of language translation techniques, features, and accuracy of various classifiers for multilingual sentiment analysis is also discussed in this study.

Keywords: cross-language analysis, machine learning, machine translation, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Jehan Fahim M. Alsulami

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Academic research about sentiment analysis in sentiment analysis has obtained significant advancement over recent years and is flourishing from the collection of knowledge provided by various academic disciplines. In the current study, the status and development trend of the field of sentiment analysis in social networks is evaluated through a bibliometric analysis of academic publications. In particular, the distributions of publications and citations, the distribution of subject, predominant journals, authors, countries are analyzed. The collaboration degree is applied to measure scientific connections from different aspects. Moreover, the keyword co-occurrence analysis is used to find out the major research topics and their evolutions throughout the time span. The area of sentiment analysis in social networks has gained growing attention in academia, with computer science and engineering as the top main research subjects. China and the USA provide the most to the area development. Authors prefer to collaborate more with those within the same nation. Among the research topics, newly risen topics such as COVID-19, customer satisfaction are discovered.

Keywords: bibliometric analysis, sentiment analysis, social networks, social media

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Authors: Eric Berry White

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The paper examines the causality between solid waste pollution and lockdown. Particularly in 2020, the world experiences the takeover of the Corona virus pandemic, and most countries decided to adopt lockdown measure as the best solution to curtail the spread of the virus. On March 20, 2020, the Government of Liberia implemented a curfew that starts from 3:00PM to 6:00AM. This means that no unauthorized person is allowed to be in the streets during this time. In most developing countries, the issue of public waste and environmental hazard pollution tend to have a high effect among the slum communities where there are markets. This research covers 6 slums communities around the two biggest market hubs within Monrovia, and the result shows that the lockdown measure significantly reduced public waste pollution by reducing the movement of marketers in slum communities , where limited educational and sensitization for young people is reflected on their job market exclusion, jobless circle, and youth workforce concentration in informal work market. The study discovered that with public awareness and sensitization with females, solid waste could be reduced by 13 percentage point. But there is no evidence that awareness among male conduce pollution. within affected communities, Despite the impact of the lockdown on food consumption, these results emphasized that with the right monitoring of waste and aware, pollution could be reduce. By understanding these results and implementing the best policy, the paper recommends that dump sites be close at certain hours.

Keywords: lockdown, environmental, pollution, waste

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Authors: Erica Siqueira, Adriana Bin, Rachel Stefanuto

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The paper aims to identify and to discuss the impact and results of ex-ante, mid-term and ex-post evaluation initiatives in Brazilian Social Enterprises from the point of view of the entrepreneurs and investors, highlighting the processes involved in these activities and their aftereffects. The study was conducted using a descriptive methodology, primarily qualitative. A multiple-case study was used, and, for that, semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten entrepreneurs in the (i) social finance, (ii) education, (iii) health, (iv) citizenship and (v) green tech fields, as well as three representatives of various impact investments, which are (i) venture capital, (ii) loan and (iii) equity interest areas. Convenience (non-probabilistic) sampling was adopted to select both businesses and investors, who voluntarily contributed to the research. The evaluation is still incipient in most of the studied business cases. Some stand out by adopting well-known methodologies like Global Impact Investing Report System (GIIRS), but still, have a lot to improve in several aspects. Most of these enterprises use nonexperimental research conducted by their own employees, which is ordinarily not understood as 'golden standard' to some authors in the area. Nevertheless, from the entrepreneur point of view, it is possible to identify that most of them including those routines in some extent in their day-by-day activities, despite the difficulty they have of the business in general. In turn, the investors do not have overall directions to establish evaluation initiatives in respective enterprises; they are funding. There is a mechanism of trust, and this is, usually, enough to prove the impact for all stakeholders. The work concludes that there is a large gap between what the literature states in regard to what should be the best practices in these businesses and what the enterprises really do. The evaluation initiatives must be included in some extension in all enterprises in order to confirm social impact that they realize. Here it is recommended the development and adoption of more flexible evaluation mechanisms that consider the complexity involved in these businesses’ routines. The reflections of the research also suggest important implications for the field of Social Enterprises, whose practices are far from what the theory preaches. It highlights the risk of the legitimacy of these enterprises that identify themselves as 'social impact', sometimes without the proper proof based on causality data. Consequently, this makes the field of social entrepreneurship fragile and susceptible to questioning, weakening the ecosystem as a whole. In this way, the top priorities of these enterprises must be handled together with the results and impact measurement activities. Likewise, it is recommended to perform further investigations that consider the trade-offs between impact versus profit. In addition, research about gender, the entrepreneur motivation to call themselves as Social Enterprises, and the possible unintended consequences from these businesses also should be investigated.

Keywords: evaluation practices, impact, results, social enterprise, social entrepreneurship ecosystem

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Authors: Abigail M. Csik, Gabriel A. Radvansky

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As people read through event-based narratives, they construct an event model that captures information about the characters, goals, location, time, and causality. For many reasons, memory for such narratives is represented at different levels, namely, the surface form, textbase, and event model levels. Rereading has been shown to decrease surface form memory, while, at the same time, increasing textbase and event model memories. More generally, distributed practice has consistently shown memory benefits over massed practice for different types of materials, including texts. However, little research has investigated distributed practice of narratives at different inter-study intervals and these effects on these three levels of memory. Recent work in our lab has indicated that there may be dramatic changes in patterns of forgetting around one week, which may affect the three levels of memory. The present experiment aimed to determine the effects of rereading on the three levels of memory as a factor of whether the texts were reread before versus after one week. Participants (N = 42) read a set of stories, re-read them either before or after one week (with an inter-study interval of three days, seven days, or fourteen days), and then took a recognition test, from which the three levels of representation were derived. Signal detection results from this study reveal that differential patterns at the three levels as a factor of whether the narratives were re-read prior to one week or after one week. In particular, an ANOVA revealed that surface form memory was lower (p = .08) while textbase (p = .02) and event model memory (p = .04) were greater if narratives were re-read 14 days later compared to memory when narratives were re-read 3 days later. These results have implications for what type of memory benefits from distributed practice at various inter-study intervals.

Keywords: memory, event cognition, distributed practice, consolidation

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Authors: Stefano Frassinelli, Alessandro Niccolai, Riccardo E. Zich

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Diving is an important Olympic sport. In this sport, the effective performance of the athlete is related to his capability to interact correctly with the springboard. In fact, the elevation of the jump and the correctness of the dive are influenced by the vibrations of the board. In this paper, the vibrations of the springboard will be analyzed by means of typical tools for vibration analysis: Firstly, a modal analysis will be done on two different models of the springboard, then, these two model and another one will be analyzed with a time analysis, done integrating the equations of motion od deformable bodies. All these analyses will be compared with experimental data measured on a real springboard by means of a 6-axis accelerometer; these measurements are aimed to assess the models proposed. The acquired data will be analyzed both in frequency domain and in time domain.

Keywords: springboard analysis, modal analysis, time domain analysis, vibrations

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Authors: M. Tassi, E. Dotsika, P. Karalis, A. Trantalidou, A. Mazarakis Ainian

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The Kythnos Island in Greece is of particular archaeological interest, as it has been inhabited from the 12th BC until the 7th AD. From island excavations, numerous faunal and human skeletal remains have been recovered. This work is the first attempt at the paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the island via stable isotope analysis. Specifically, we perform 13C and 18O isotope analysis in faunal bone apatite in order to investigate the climate conditions that prevailed in the area. Additionally, we conduct 13C and 15N isotope analysis in faunal bone collagen, which will constitute the baseline for the subsequent diet reconstruction of the ancient Kythnos population.

Keywords: stable isotopes analysis, bone collagen stable isotope analysis, bone apatite stable isotope analysis, paleodiet, palaeoclimate

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Authors: A. B. Bolkhir, A. Elshafie, T. K. Yousif

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This paper highlights the methods of error estimation in finite element analysis (FEA) results. It indicates that the modeling error could be eliminated by performing finite element analysis with successively finer meshes or by extrapolating response predictions from an orderly sequence of relatively low degree of freedom analysis results. In addition, the paper eliminates the round-off error by running the code at a higher precision. The paper provides application in finite element analysis results. It draws a conclusion based on results of application of methods of error estimation.

Keywords: finite element analysis (FEA), discretization error, round-off error, mesh refinement, richardson extrapolation, monotonic convergence

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Authors: Baoubadi Atozou, Koffi Akakpo

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Since the decade 2000, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat, and soybeans in biofuel production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Thus, prices for these agricultural products are rising in the world market. These cereals are the most important source of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries members’ population. These countries are highly dependent on imports of most of these products. Thereby, rising prices can have an important impact on import levels and consequently on food security in these countries. This study aims to analyze the interrelationship between the prices of these commodities and their volatilities, and their effects on imports of these agricultural products by each WAEMU ’country member. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the GARCH Multivariate model, and the Granger Causality Test are used in this investigation. The results show that import levels are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes as well as their volatility. In the short term as well as in the long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. There is a positive relationship in general between price volatility. And these volatilities have negative effects on the level of imports. The market characteristics affect food security in these countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. The policies makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

Keywords: price volatility, import of agricultural products, food safety, WAEMU

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Authors: Austyn Snowden

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Aim: To examine the construct validity of the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire Short form. Background: Emotional intelligence involves the identification and regulation of our own emotions and the emotions of others. It is therefore a potentially useful construct in the investigation of recruitment and retention in nursing and many questionnaires have been constructed to measure it. Design: Secondary analysis of existing dataset of responses to TEIQue-SF using concurrent application of Rasch analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Method: First year undergraduate nursing and computing students completed Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form. Responses were analysed by synthesising results of Rasch analysis and confirmatory factor analysis.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, rasch analysis, factor analysis, nurse recruiters

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Authors: Samaneh Khalili

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Natural law theory, in moral philosophy, refers to a system of unchanging values held to be mutual to all humans and can be discovered through reason. The natural law theory is commonly associated with western Philosophers. In contrast, discussions on notions of natural law in Islamic intellectual history were relatively rare. This paper aims to show that the moral theory developed by the Mu'tazilite thinkers can be classified in the ideas of natural law. In doing so, this study will demonstrate that the objective and unchanging values, according to Mu'tazilite theologians, provide the guidelines for assessing the Islamic law rules in the field of human coexistence. The focus of the paper lies on ʿAbd al-Ğabbār, who was the most influential thinker in the late epoch of the Muʿtazila. Although ʿAbd al-Ǧabbār did not leave a text with a systematic discussion of natural law, his teaching of nature, human reason, and the moral values of actions are all scattered throughout his work -'al-Muġnī fī abwāb at-tawḥīd wa-l-'adl'. It is necessary to focus on ʿAbd al-Ǧabbār's theories on reason, nature, and ethics since natural law revolves around the basic concepts of nature, reason, and moral value. While analyzing the concept of the Nature, it will attempt to answer how he explains the world's physical structure and God's relationship to natural events. Moreover, from ʿAbd al-Ǧabbār's point of view, is nature a self-determined system that follows its inner principle in every kind of change, or is nature guided by an external power? Does causality govern natural events? About the concept of reason, an attempt is made to examine how human reason, according to ʿAbd al-Ǧabbār, conceives moral attributes. Finally, the Autor will discuss the concepts of objective values and the place of rights and duties derived from Islamic law in ʿAbd al-Ǧabbār's thought.

Keywords: Islamic law, Mu'tazilite theology, natural law in Islamic theology, objective and unchanging values.

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Authors: Pingping Lin, Xudong Luo

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Natural language often conveys emotions of speakers. Therefore, sentiment analysis on what people say is prevalent in the field of natural language process and has great application value in many practical problems. Thus, to help people understand its application value, in this paper, we survey various applications of sentiment analysis, including the ones in online business and offline business as well as other types of its applications. In particular, we give some application examples in intelligent customer service systems in China. Besides, we compare the applications of sentiment analysis on Twitter, Weibo, Taobao and Facebook, and discuss some challenges. Finally, we point out the challenges faced in the applications of sentiment analysis and the work that is worth being studied in the future.

Keywords: application, natural language processing, online comments, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Pallavi Roe

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Violent crime is a significant public safety concern in urban areas across the United States, and Washington, DC, is no exception. This research discusses the prevalence and types of crime, particularly violent crime, in Washington, DC, along with the factors contributing to the high rate of violent crime in the city, including poverty, inequality, access to guns, and racial disparities. The organizations working towards ensuring safety in neighborhoods are also listed. The proposal to perform spatial and temporal analysis on violent crime and the use of guns in crime analysis is presented to identify patterns and trends to inform evidence-based interventions to reduce violent crime and improve public safety in Washington, DC. The stakeholders for crime analysis are also discussed, including law enforcement agencies, prosecutors, judges, policymakers, and the public. The anticipated result of the spatial and temporal analysis is to provide stakeholders with valuable information to make informed decisions about preventing and responding to violent crimes.

Keywords: crime analysis, spatial analysis, temporal analysis, violent crime

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Authors: Jie Liu, Xudong Luo, Pingping Lin, Yifan Fan

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Facebook, Twitter, Weibo, and other social media and significant e-commerce sites generate a massive amount of online texts, which can be used to analyse people’s opinions or sentiments for better decision-making. So, sentiment analysis, especially fine-grained sentiment analysis, is a very active research topic. In this paper, we survey various methods for fine-grained sentiment analysis, including traditional sentiment lexicon-based methods, machine learning-based methods, and deep learning-based methods in aspect/target/attribute-based sentiment analysis tasks. Besides, we discuss their advantages and problems worthy of careful studies in the future.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, fine-grained, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: A. B. Robert, Adam Pramadia, Calvin Andika

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The main purpose of this study is to explore consumer loyalty characteristic of mobile phone category in Indonesia. Second, this research attempts to identify consumer segment and to explore their profile in each segment as the basis of marketing strategy formulation. This study used some tools of multivariate analysis such as discriminant analysis and cluster analysis. Discriminate analysis used to discriminate consumer loyal and not loyal by using particular variables. Cluster analysis used to reveal various segment in mobile phone category. In addition to having better customer understanding in each segment, this study used descriptive analysis and cross tab analysis in each segment defined by cluster analysis. This study expected several findings. First, consumer can be divided into two large group of loyal versus not loyal by set of variables. Second, this study identifies customer segment in mobile phone category. Third, exploring customer profile in each segment that has been identified. This study answer a call for additional empirical research into different product categories. Therefore, a replication research is advisable. By knowing the customer loyalty characteristic, and deep analysis of their consumption behavior and profile for each segment, this study is very advisable for high impact marketing strategy development. This study contributes body of knowledge by adding empirical study of consumer loyalty, segmentation analysis in mobile phone category by multiple brand analysis.

Keywords: customer loyalty, segmentation, marketing strategy, discriminant analysis, cluster analysis, mobile phone

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Authors: Elhem Zaatir, Taher Hamza

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Several governments seek to implement gender parity on boards, but the results of doing so are not clear and could harm corporations and economies. The present paper aims to investigate the relationship between women’s presence on boards and firms’ performance in the context of the French listed firms during the quota period. A dynamic panel generalized method of moment estimation is applied to control the endogenous effect of board structure and reverse the causality impact of the financial performance. Our results show that the impact of gender diversity manifests in conflicting directions, positively affecting accounting performance and negatively influencing market performance. These results suggest that female directors create economic value, but the market discounts their impact. Apparently, they are subject to a biased evaluation by the market, which undervalues their presence on boards. Added to that, our results confirm a twofold nature of female representation in the French market. The effect of female directorship on firm performance varies with the affiliation of the directors. In other words, the positive impact of gender diversity on return on assets primarily originates from the positive effect of non-family-affiliated women directors on market performance rather than on the effect of family-affiliated women directors on ROA. Finally, according to our results, women’s demographic attributes namely the level of education and multiple directorships strongly and positively impact firm performance as measured by return on assets (ROA). Obviously, women directors seem to be appointed to the business case rather than as token directors.

Keywords: corporate governance, board of directors, women, gender diversity, demographic attributes, firm performance

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Authors: Chothmal, Basant Agarwal

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Sentiment analysis means to classify a given review document into positive or negative polar document. Sentiment analysis research has been increased tremendously in recent times due to its large number of applications in the industry and academia. Sentiment analysis models can be used to determine the opinion of the user towards any entity or product. E-commerce companies can use sentiment analysis model to improve their products on the basis of users’ opinion. In this paper, we propose a new One-class Support Vector Machine (One-class SVM) based sentiment analysis model for movie review documents. In the proposed approach, we initially extract features from one class of documents, and further test the given documents with the one-class SVM model if a given new test document lies in the model or it is an outlier. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed sentiment analysis model.

Keywords: feature selection methods, machine learning, NB, one-class SVM, sentiment analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Pranee Suecharoen, Jaturat Kanpittaya

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Background: The incidence of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media has risen. The dearth of reports on reactions to the administration of iso- and low-osmolar contrast media should be addressed. We, therefore, studied the profile of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media; viz., (a) the body systems affected (b) causality, (c) severity, and (d) preventability. Objective: To study adverse reactions (causes and severity) to iodinated contrast media at Srinagarind Hospital. Method: Between March and July, 2015, 1,101 patients from the Department of Radiology were observed and interviewed for the occurrence of adverse reactions. The patients were classified per Naranjo’s algorithm and through use of an adverse reactions questionnaire. Results: A total of 105 cases (9.5%) reported adverse reactions (57% male; 43% female); among whom 2% were iso-osmolar vs. 98% low-osmolar. Diagnoses included hepatoma and cholangiocarcinoma (24.8%), colorectal cancer (9.5%), breast cancer (5.7%), cervical cancer (3.8%), lung cancer (2.9%), bone cancer (1.9%), and others (51.5%). Underlying diseases included hypertension and diabetes mellitus type 2. Mild, moderate, and severe adverse reactions accounted for 92, 5 and 3%, respectively. The respective groups of escalating symptoms included (a) mild urticaria, itching, rash, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and headache; (b) moderate hypertension, hypotension, dyspnea, tachycardia and bronchospasm; and (c) severe laryngeal edema, profound hypotension, and convulsions. All reactions could be anticipated per Naranjo’s algorithm. Conclusion: Mild to moderate adverse reactions to low-osmolar contrast media were most common and these occurred immediately after administration. For patient safety and better outcomes, improving the identification of patients likely to have an adverse reaction is essential.

Keywords: adverse reactions, contrast media, computed tomography, iodinated contrast agents

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Authors: Hasan Fatih Ertuğrul, Beytullah Okur, Huseyin Üvet, Kadir Erkan

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The objective of this paper is to analyze a 4-pole hybrid magnetic levitation system by using 3D finite element and analytical methods. The magnetostatic analysis of the system is carried out by using ANSYS MAXWELL-3D package. An analytical model is derived by magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC) method. The purpose of magnetostatic analysis is to determine the characteristics of attractive force and rotational torques by the change of air gap clearances, inclination angles and current excitations. The comparison between 3D finite element analysis and analytical results are presented at the rest of the paper.

Keywords: yoke hybrid electromagnet, 3D finite element analysis, magnetic levitation system, magnetostatic analysis

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Authors: Ju-Young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

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This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical nonlinearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC, high temperature, after-cooling analysis, nonlinear analysis

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Muhammad Siddique, Volodymyr Lugovskyy

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This paper explores how nations might mitigate the unfavorable impacts of oil price volatility on economic growth by switching to renewable energy sources. The impacts of uncertain factor prices on economic activity are examined by looking at the Realized Volatility (RV) of oil prices rather than the more traditional method of looking at oil price shocks. The United States of America (USA), China (C), India (I), United Kingdom (UK), Germany (G), Malaysia (M), and Pakistan (P) are all included to round out the traditional literature's examination of selected nations, which focuses on oil-importing and exporting economies. Granger Causality Tests (GCT), Impulse Response Functions (IRF), and Variance Decompositions (VD) demonstrate that in a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) scenario, the negative impacts of oil price volatility extend beyond what can be explained by oil price shocks alone for all of the nations in the sample. Different nations have different levels of vulnerability to changes in oil prices and other factors that may play a role in a sectoral composition and the energy mix. The conventional method, which only takes into account whether a country is a net oil importer or exporter, is inadequate. The potential economic advantages of initiatives to decouple the macroeconomy from volatile commodities markets are shown through simulations of volatility shocks in alternative energy mixes (with greater proportions of renewables). It is determined that in developing countries like Pakistan, increasing the use of renewable energy sources might lessen an economy's sensitivity to changes in oil prices; nonetheless, a country-specific study is required to identify particular policy actions. In sum, the research provides an innovative justification for mitigating economic growth's dependence on stable oil prices in our sample countries.

Keywords: oil price volatility, renewable energy, economic growth, developed and developing economies

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Authors: Lena Lapidot, Amir Amnon, Rita Nosenko, Veitsman Ella, Cohen-Ezra Oranit, Davidov Yana, Segev Shlomo, Koren Omry, Safran Michal, Ben-Ari Ziv

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Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer related mortality worldwide. Liver Cirrhosis is the main predisposing risk factor for the development of HCC. The factor(s) influencing disease progression from Cirrhosis to HCC remain unknown. Gut microbiota has recently emerged as a major player in different liver diseases, however its association with HCC is still a mystery. Moreover, there might be an important association between the gut microbiota, nutrition, life style and the progression of Cirrhosis and HCC. The aim of our study was to characterize the gut microbial signature in association with life style and nutrition of patients with Cirrhosis, HCC-Cirrhosis and healthy controls. Design: Stool samples were collected from 95 individuals (30 patients with HCC, 38 patients with Cirrhosis and 27 age, gender and BMI-matched healthy volunteers). All participants answered lifestyle and Food Frequency Questionnaires. 16S rRNA sequencing of fecal DNA was performed (MiSeq Illumina). Results: There was a significant decrease in alpha diversity in patients with Cirrhosis (qvalue=0.033) and in patients with HCC-Cirrhosis (qvalue=0.032) compared to healthy controls. The microbiota of patients with HCC-cirrhosis compared to patients with Cirrhosis, was characterized by a significant overrepresentation of Clostridium (pvalue=0.024) and CF231 (pvalue=0.010) and lower expression of Alphaproteobacteria (pvalue=0.039) and Verrucomicrobia (pvalue=0.036) in several taxonomic levels: Verrucomicrobiae, Verrucomicrobiales, Verrucomicrobiaceae and the genus Akkermansia (pvalue=0.039). Furthermore, we performed an analysis of predicted metabolic pathways (Kegg level 2) that resulted in a significant decrease in the diversity of metabolic pathways in patients with HCC-Cirrhosis (qvalue=0.015) compared to controls, one of which was amino acid metabolism. Furthermore, investigating the life style and nutrition habits of patients with HCC-Cirrhosis, we found significant correlations between intake of artificial sweeteners and Verrucomicrobia (qvalue=0.12), High sugar intake and Synergistetes (qvalue=0.021) and High BMI and the pathogen Campylobacter (qvalue=0.066). Furthermore, overweight in patients with HCC-Cirrhosis modified bacterial diversity (qvalue=0.023) and composition (qvalue=0.033). Conclusions: To the best of the our knowledge, we present the first report of the gut microbial composition in patients with HCC-Cirrhosis, compared with Cirrhotic patients and healthy controls. We have demonstrated in our study that there are significant differences in the gut microbiome of patients with HCC-cirrhosis compared to Cirrhotic patients and healthy controls. Our findings are even more pronounced because the significantly increased bacteria Clostridium and CF231 in HCC-Cirrhosis weren't influenced by diet and lifestyle, implying this change is due to the development of HCC. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and assess causality.

Keywords: Cirrhosis, Hepatocellular carcinoma, life style, liver disease, microbiome, nutrition

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Authors: Samaneh Nadali, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad, Nurfadhlina Mohammad Sharef

Abstract:

Sarcasm is a common phenomenon in social media which is a nuanced form of language for stating the opposite of what is implied. Due to the intentional ambiguity, analysis of sarcasm is a difficult task not only for a machine but even for a human. Although sarcasm detection has an important effect on sentiment, it is usually ignored in social media analysis because sarcasm analysis is too complicated. While there is a few systems exist which can detect sarcasm, almost no work has been carried out on a study and the review of the existing work in this area. This survey presents a nearly full image of sarcasm detection techniques and the related fields with brief details. The main contributions of this paper include the illustration of the recent trend of research in the sarcasm analysis and we highlight the gaps and propose a new framework that can be explored.

Keywords: sarcasm detection, sentiment analysis, social media, sarcasm analysis

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Authors: Anat Keller

Abstract:

Given that macro-prudential supervision is a relatively new policy area and its empirical and analytical research are still in their infancy, its theoretical foundations are also lagging behind. This paper contributes to the developing discussion on effective legal and institutional macroprudential supervision frameworks. In the first part of the paper, it is argued that effectiveness as a key benchmark poses some challenges in the context of macroprudential supervision such as the difficulty in proving causality between supervisory actions and the achievement of the supervisor’s mission. The paper suggests that effectiveness in the macroprudential context should, therefore, be assessed at the supervisory decision-making process (to be differentiated from the supervisory outcomes). The second part of the essay examines whether insights from behavioural economics can point to biases in the macroprudential decision-making process. These biases include, inter alia, preference bias, groupthink bias and inaction bias. It is argued that these biases are exacerbated in the multilateral setting of the macroprudential supervision framework in the EU. The paper then examines how legal and institutional frameworks should be designed to acknowledge and perhaps contain these identified biases. The paper suggests that the effectiveness of macroprudential policy will largely depend on the existence of clear and robust transparency and accountability arrangements. Accountability arrangements can be used as a vehicle for identifying and addressing potential biases in the macro-prudential framework, in particular, inaction bias. Inclusiveness of the public in the supervisory process in the form of transparency and awareness of the logic behind policy decisions may assist in minimising their potential unpopularity thus promoting their effectiveness. Furthermore, a governance structure which facilitates coordination of the macroprudential supervisor with other policymakers and incorporates outside perspectives and opinions could ‘break-down’ groupthink bias as well as inaction bias.

Keywords: behavioural economics and biases, effectiveness of macroprudential supervision, legal and institutional macroprudential frameworks, macroprudential decision-making process

Procedia PDF Downloads 249